Prefatory Note

This manuscript offers an urgent vision involving humanitys relationship to our common space
environment. Allies will be gained and actions triggered when certain space weather mechanisms
introduced herein are obvious enough that investment of time and money can be easily justified to protect
humanity against unmitigated disaster.

A Principle of Crystal Clear and Simple Vision:
A novel vision must be distilled into its simplest expression one that can be explained
over a one-hour lunch or phone call if the vision would quickly gain allies and trigger
major action.

Example 1: In 2001, Elon Musk picked my brain regarding the satellite industry over an hour lunch at
Mings in Palo Alto, after which Elon proceeded to establish his most challenging venture yet, SpaceX,
building hyper-complex space launch vehicles on the crystal clear and simple vision of revolutionizing both the
technology and economics of space transportation, based on various strategies we discussed. Elon is very
aware of the need for crystal clear and simple vision, and he was able to clearly explain to me his vision for
SpaceX in a very short time. SpaceX has succeeded, to date, in the face of monumental challenges that were
seen and addressed before setting the entire mission in motion.

Example 2: Back in 1989, I picked Kenneth Davies brain regarding the ionosphere over an hour phone
call. Kenneth, the world leading expert on the ionosphere, was able to succinctly explain the nature of the
differential equations characterizing ionospheric wave propagations and how their ordinary and
extraordinary solutions depended on local magnetic field vector, satellite transmission frequency & direction vector and
ionospheric electron content, so that I was able to arrange tests on our satellites to verify, and then alert the entire
satellite industry (and much of the world through a CNN interview) to the totally
unprecedented/unexpected Faraday rotation levels being experienced in C-band satellite transmissions.
Fortunately, while the anomalous Faraday rotations were pervasive, they were temporary, with only a
minority of satellite transmissions actually going dark. The experience alerted me to the potential impacts
of ~11-year extreme space weather conditions (sunspot cycles peak approximately every 11 years); but it
only recently dawned on me how the 100-year extremes of space weather events are yet to be tested against
space age infrastructures whose tenure is barely 50-years.

My hour with Elon featured high strategic complexity on topics that we both understood, leading to
positive resolution. My hour with Kenneth featured high phenomenological complexity on topics that we
both quickly came to understand, leading to positive resolution.
I believe that a lurking space weather problem exists (of both great strategic and phenomenological
complexity needing to be mastered) whose 100-year annual mortality expectation may well be ~1%
annually (i.e., eclipsing all other mortality expectations for the average person) that is also quietly causing
billions in annual direct or consequential losses to satellite and electric power grid users and stakeholders.
The ~1% mortality figure comes from experts estimates
1
of a 1.2% likelihood space weather event with a
90% mortality rate due to sending advanced civilization back 100 years or so, i.e., to a time when food, energy,
healthcare and security did not depend on electricity but on horses, oxen and electricity-independent rail networks (but
this time around largely without the horses, oxen or electricity-independent rail networks).
I have written this manuscript with the aim of shaving years off of conversation cycles, so that hour-long
conversations may begin in haste until understanding and action on the space weather issue is achieved.

Reed Burkhart
Independent Consultant, Concord, California, USA

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Theie is an unbelievably immense amount of infoimation collecteu fiom stuuies in space physics
about space weathei, yet space weathei iemains veiy pooily unueistoou.

A stuuy has been conuucteu showing space weathei thieats to humanity aie especially high, uue to
high susceptibility to ciitical infiastiuctuie failuies (most notably, failuies of electiic powei giius
anu satellites). It appeais that new insights in science (ie: uaik eneigy, uaik mattei, isotope uecay
iate mouulation, neutiino flavois anu mouulations, Reushift, coional heating anu exotic states of
mattei) may ielate to these obseivations (but aie not uiscusseu in this highlights uocument which
focuses on the moital anu financial iisks of space weathei newly coming into focus).

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Noitalities foi the type of space weathei expeiienceu ovei the last few uecaues aie not easily
tiackeu, but space weathei is known to inciease the iate of ueaths fiom heait attack anu to cause
othei biological pioblems. Recent stuuies on extieme space weathei have iepoiteu that a Caiiington
class space weathei event (that is conjectuieu by some to have a 1.2% annual likelihoou
1
) woulu
have uevastating effects on populations, with 9 of 1u ueau
1
within a yeai in aieas ieliant on electiic
giiu powei. If tiue, such an event coulu leau to the uotteu line population scenaiio below:



The populations expecteu to be hit haiuest (~9u% moitality iate) woulu be those uaik gieen aieas
of the following map:

1
See stuuy - !"#$% '%#()%* +)*%#(, (- .*/(/$#0 123*#,(*4$(4*%, 5678 - foi uetails anu iefeiences.



The ieason foi the high moitality iate is that a Caiiington class event is pieuicteu to senu auvanceu
civilization back 1uu yeais oi so, /7%7, to a time when 3--9, %2%*:;, )%#0()$#*% anu ,%$4*/(; uiu not
uepenu on %0%$(*/$/(; but on )-*,%,, -<%2 anu %0%$(*/$/(;=/29%"%29%2( *#/0 2%(>-*?, (but this time
aiounu laigely without the )-*,%,, -<%2 oi %0%$(*/$/(;=/29%"%29%2( *#/0 2%(>-*?,).

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With ceitain assumptions, space weathei effects to satellites net to about $14 billion of economic loss
annually (satellite opeiating companies themselves iepiesenting peihaps as much as about $4 billion
of that, the iest of the losses being incuiieu by businesses ielying on those satellites). Bowevei, the
laigest impact is to electiic powei giius, wheie (again with ceitain assumptions) space weathei
effects to electiic powei giius appeai to cost about $77u billion in economic losses annually (giiu
inuustiy seivice losses iepiesenting only about $7u billion of that, the iest of the losses being
incuiieu by businesses ielying on the giiu).

Because space weathei has "1uu yeai stoim" type effects, the expecteu annual losses (incluuing a 1uu
yeai stoim, "fat tails", event) aie estimateu to be even highei (using 1% annual likelihoou of a 1uu
yeai stoim):

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*uoveinment satellite infiastiuctuies (not incluueu in table above) aie notoiiously expensive, anu possibly moie sensitive to
space weathei effects. Some inuiviuual goveinment satellites cost seveial billion uollais, so that expecteu infiastiuctuie
ielateu losses to goveinment satellites may be much highei pei satellite than foi commeicial satellites.

Theie is a funuamental uiffeience between an (estimateu) expecteu annual loss component of $4B to
the satellite inuustiy that is expeiienceu somewhat giauually yeai-by-yeai, anu an (estimateu)
expecteu annual loss component of $S.4B that is expeiienceu eveiy 1uu yeais as a $S4uB event hit to
satellite opeiatois (even moie in customei losses). In a neaily $2uuB annual ievenue inuustiy, the
piogiessively expeiienceu $4B iecuiiing actuaiial iisk is manageable by insuiance (incluuing self-
insuiance) yet the 1uu-yeai blowout $S.4B annual actuaiial iisk - because this iisk occuis as a single
huge loss spike, peihaps of $S4uB, event - piesents (touay at least) an uninsuiable existential thieat
to the satellite inuustiy.

Similaily, the 1uu-yeai event iisk component foi the electiic powei inuustiy iepiesents an
existential thieat to the electiic powei inuustiy.

The manusciipt -#[ AL;89)+; 8L "8;( <.$#:8L9 .\ 5I*J# G#*+)#' >)'#*+; +. C'8+8J*:
AL\'*;+'&J+&'#; ]3X4 looks insiue the science of space weathei anu iisk to uiscovei a chain of
mechanisms just beginning to emeige in the science of space weathei. This eneigy path fiom Sun to
Eaith is uiffeient fiom the path most stuuieu (the coional mass ejections which piouuce the highest
ieauings on space stoim inuices).

Awaieness of this chain of space weathei mechanisms claiifies the issue of space weathei thieats to
ciitical infiastiuctuies in a way that - once unueistoou - will give fai gieatei motivation anu
uiiection foi piotecting ciitical infiastiuctuies fiom space weathei thieats.

In auuition the stuuy of this chain of space weathei mechanisms has leu to new insights in both
physics anu space physics, incluuing quite possibly explaining key aspects of a cential phenomena
that seems likely to be involveu in
2
:

- The oiigin of the Eaith anu Noon oibits
- Neutiino flavois anu oscillations
- Isotope uecay iate mouulations
- A key mouulation of eneigy input to Eaith fiom the Sun
- Reushift
- Baik eneigy anu uaik mattei
- Coional heating

The abstiact foi the uiaft manusciipt is incluueu in the following two pages of this puf.

Foi fuithei infoimation on this stuuy, please contact:

Reeu Buikhait
Inuepenuent Consultant
Concoiu, CA, 0SA
1.92S.6S9.1821
buikhaitalumni.caltech.euu oi ieeu.buikhaitgmail.com


2
Some of these new insights aie only biiefly iefeienceu in the manusciipt, but aie emeiging in ieal time uiscussions with
uomain science expeits.

Early draft

1



Title: New Insights in Risk Modeling of Space Weather Threats to Critical Infrastructures
(Version 1.3)

Author: Reed M. Burkhart
1
*

Affiliations:
1
Independent consultant
*Correspondence to: reed.burkhart@gmail.com

Abstract:
Mastering Space Weather Threats to Critical Infrastructures (SWT-CI) is arguably the most important problem in
all of science today, at least if some experts estimations are anywhere close to correct: that a repeat of a
large-scale space weather event such as the Carrington Event of 1859 would lead to 9 of 10 people not surviving in
developed regions of the world with trillions in economic losses due to multi-year electric power grid failures, alone,
leading to the loss of key functions of advanced society such as delivery systems for water, food, fuel,
banking, security, healthcare, etc. On top of the logistical and security nightmares of such long-term grid
failures, extensive simultaneous satellite failures would only exacerbate disorder, creating a state of
emergency challenging comprehension.
Experts estimate a Carrington level space weather event at an expected 1.2% annual probability. Against a
90% event mortality figure, the expected annual mortality rate is easily computed as 1.08%, which is higher
than a 2004 World Health Organization estimate for all other mortality rates combined.
This manuscript identifies and works to correct three very important oversights in risk modeling of SWT-
CI: 1) failure to consider consequential damages, 2) failure to consider fat-tails of risk probability, and, 3) an
incorrect assessment of SWT-CI dependence on sunspot cycle considering SWT-CIs to be worst at sunspot
maxima, when evidence shows SWT-CIs are anticorrelated to sunspot cycle.
The aim is to help improve the preparedness and resiliency of modern society by a careful assessment of
space weather effects on advanced societys greatest points of susceptibility electric power grids and satellites.
A concerted effort to demystify space weather led to a suite of tentative findings (evidently all related), which
should help to illuminate the core SWT-CI question, while possibly also explaining:

Why the moons orbit settled at an average orbital altitude of ~384 thousand kilometers above Earth
with an ~27.3 day period and ~5
o
inclination to the ecliptic
Why cardiac arrests are more common around sunspot minimum
Why traffic accidents are more common around sunspot minimum
A novel cloud formation mechanism (that may mediate solar-induced climate features as alternative to
theories of Friis-Christensen/Svensmark, Scafetta, Glassman, et al.)
Why isotope decay rates accelerate or oscillate in certain locations and at certain times (may explain both
pro and con observations by Fischbach, Kienert, De Meijer, Norman, et al.)
A conjecture for the origin of the three neutrino flavors and neutrino oscillations
A conjecture for the mechanism by which cell phone dropped call rates may increase during
geomagnetic activity
The origin of common resonant frequencies found throughout the Earth system, in the Sun, and in
between that meander somewhere in the ULF range of ~1 mHz to ~10 Hz (especially one at ~1.3
mHz, a Pc5 resonant frequency)
A (new?) conjecture for the origin of Redshift through light-plasma-coupling via photon-electron-
photon-associated insinuated time delays concomitant to refraction through high index transparent
plasma (that seems perhaps to explain anomalous Redshifts),

Early draft

2
Why Carrington type major space weather events appear to occur preferentially in solar cycles with
lower-than-average sunspot number such as is predicted for the solar cycles of the next few decades.

While these ancillary insights if confirmed may be important, the insights with the greatest relevance
to society seem to be: 1) how and why geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in electric power grids (et al.) favor
sunspot minimum, and, 2) how and why satellite anomalies favor sunspot minimum, because such insights
may reveal which mitigations for space weather threats to the critical infrastructures may have the best chance
of reducing the 1.08% expected annual mortality rate and trillions in economic losses projected.
Searching for information and insights in every possible direction the systems science approach led to the
emergence of evidence pointing to a central interlinked chain of space weather mechanisms threatening
critical infrastructures.
According to the evidence coming into focus, a single, central Sunspot Anticorrelated Chain of Mechanisms (SA-
CMs) appears to cause, influence or modulate each and every SA-P, including: critical infrastructure anomalies,
aerosol formation, cardiac arrest, cloud formation, extreme weather (such as earthquakes, hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes,
tsunamis and volcanic activity), traffic accidents, tropical rainfall, et al. as well as causing isotope decay rate acceleration
(which is conjectured to also be an SA-P). While most of these phenomena do not directly relate to critical
infrastructure anomalies and failures, they all provide indirect evidence and helpful guidance regarding the
nature of these previously unappreciated SA-CMs.
This manuscript is a first narrative of the primary observational evidence and key associated conjectures.
The manuscript was prepared in order to seek feedback from domain experts (to confirm or disconfirm
specific conjectures), and also simply to inform domain experts of the present findings.
More and more scientists and policymakers are aptly asserting that the reoccurrence of an event like the
Carrington Event is a question of when, not if. Evidence reviewed in this manuscript shows that space weather
threats to grids, satellites, et al. are far more present and persistent than appreciated. It looks like there is
much to be gained by improving our understanding of SWT-CI not merely to protect against the most
extreme space weather events, but also to protect against nominal, daily levels of space weather activity whose profit
impacts create a critical, mobilizing alignment between profit incentive and catastrophic risk remediation.
Increased clarity on space weather science including increased clarity on the financial & mortal risks to
anyone relying on satellites or electric power grids presents the opportunity for a virtuous circle of better-
targeted space weather research, so more applicable/practical/relevant scientific research results, and so then even better-
targeted future space weather research.
One important new insight for the satellite and security fields is that the Galaxy IV and other catastrophic
geostationary satellite failures were likely casualties of an explosive combination of a SA-CM-caused high-power
ElectroMagnetic Mass Pulse (EMMP) in Earths magnetotail, leading to induced currents at geostationary orbit
that can exponentially heighten net spacecraft potential gradients from already high surface and bulk
charge gradients, leading to massive electromagnetic discharge in, on or around a satellite.
Fortunately, new insights on SA-CMs are already beginning to inform alternative, superior approaches to
SWT-CI engineering mitigation, early warning, operational intervention and risk modeling not only for satellites, but
also for electric power grids and other critical infrastructures with benefits that may be measured in the saving of
billions of lives and trillions of dollars.