Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2014 issue 5
A series of crises, the latest being the ominous developments in the Ukraine and further evidence of disappointing growth in China, have rattled financial markets. Of course, with all major central banks at amazingly easy policy stances, the bet continues to be that the latest uncertainties will also pass. That may be true once again. But one must recognize that many of the serious flaws uncovered in each of the predicaments will linger for years to come and that the policy remedies have at best covered up the fundamental issues without completely resolving them. Even in the U.S., the best of all major economies, the economy and financial markets still suffer from "lasting effects" of the Great Recession and seem yet to be able to muster up enough momentum to get back up to previous robust growth rates, especially for job growth. And the massive easing itself is likely to have its own potential for unintended consequences. Serious and surprising weakness in emerging economies may also jeopardize growth trajectories for global recovery. The exposure emanates out of the greater vulnerability that world trade and growth have today from these super performing emerging economies. This is particularly true for China, which by now has a stronger impact on the worlds economy, supply chains, commodity markets and world currencies. China is a key issue. Weaker growth, a complexity of debt issues, and awkward demographics, all combine to raise issues regarding the outlook. Chinas debts are troubling and not just because theyre alarmingly big. Amplifying the concerns is the complexity of those debts. Thats the trouble with Chinas lengthening credit chains. And in Europe, markets roared back as the euro crisis seemed to recede in the face of policy support. Yet basic job growth seems to be far behind. Unemployment is undermining many countries in the EU, not just massive debt levels. The unemployment is particularly severe for most of the younger age groups. Fertility rates are very low, and life expectancy keeps rising -- trends that underpin the conundrum of demographic ageing. Even those countries performing relatively well are retaining a cautious stance about future prospects, and those performing poorly are still short of new ideas -- and, in many cases, the adequate financial wherewithal -to alleviate weak growth prospects.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser is "very worried" about the potential for unintended consequences of the Fed's massive quantitative easing program. Plosser told CNBC that the U.S. was still suffering from "lasting effects" of the recession and "may never return" to its previous growth ratesand warned that policy should not bet on growth returning to previous rates, saying it could be "many, many years."
Severe weather across much of the United States took a toll on shopping and consumer spending in recent weeks, leading to slower economic growth or outright contraction in some areas of the country, the Federal Reserve said
UStoreleaseoilfromstrategicreserve
Test comes amid heightened tension over Crimea
ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ
abe@gulkowitz.com
917-402-9039
For the entire 2013, U.S. real GDP increased 1.9%, compared with an increase of 2.8% in 2012.
A significant number of economists have doubts about the European Central Bank's view that deflation is not a threat and that the recovery will take hold without any more action, a Reuters poll showed, and they say more stimulus is needed.
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In This Issue
Crisis after Crisis
A series of crises, the latest being the ominous developments in the Ukraine and further evidence of disappointing growth in China, have rattled financial markets. Of course, with all major central banks at amazingly easy policy stances, the bet continues to be that the latest uncertainties will also pass. That may be true once again. But one must recognize that many of the serious flaws uncovered in each of the predicaments will linger for years to come and that the policy remedies have at best covered up the fundamental issues without completely resolving them. Even in the U.S., the best of all major economies, the economy and financial markets still suffer from "lasting effects" of the Great Recession and seem yet to be able to muster up enough momentum to get back up to previous robust growth rates, especially for job growth. And the massive easing itself is likely to have its own potential for unintended consequences. Serious and surprising weakness in emerging economies may also jeopardize growth trajectories for global recovery. The exposure emanates out of the greater vulnerability that world trade and growth have today from these super performing emerging economies. This is particularly true for China, which by now has a stronger impact on the worlds economy, supply chains, commodity markets and world currencies. China is a key issue. Weaker growth, a complexity of debt issues, and awkward demographics, all combine to raise issues regarding the outlook. Chinas debts are troubling and not just because theyre alarmingly big. Amplifying the concerns is the complexity of those debts. Thats the trouble with Chinas lengthening credit chains. And in Europe, markets roared back as the euro crisis seemed to recede in the face of policy support. Yet basic job growth seems to be far behind. Unemployment is undermining many countries in the EU, not just massive debt levels. The unemployment is particularly severe for most of the younger age groups. Fertility rates are very low, and life expectancy keeps rising -- trends that underpin the conundrum of demographic ageing. Even those countries performing relatively well are retaining a cautious stance about future prospects, and those performing poorly are still short of new ideas -- and, in many cases, the adequate financial wherewithal -- to alleviate weak growth prospects. (pg 1)
The Likelihood of Unlikely Events... Go Figure You Cant Handle the Truth U.S. Job Growth More Job Data ... Households Enlightenment The Return to Normal Credit Pumping Iron A New Geography of Business The DNA of Business Real Estate and Construction Will Life Ever be the Same?
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Easy money and the timing of the Feds policy shift continue to dominate across the globe. But weaknesses in significant emerging economies have also become more evident. Very obvious financial vulnerabilities, repercussions from various political stalemates and serious geopolitical concerns are aggravating the problems of clearly insufficient growth in the world economy. And lets not forget that many of the challenges cannot be resolved easily (pg 4)
Contact information:
Abraham Gulkowitz
phone: 917-402-9039
email:abe@gulkowitz.com
Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites.
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Engine Drivers
The China central bank seems set on bashing speculators betting on a stronger yuan, without changing the currencys long-term appeal. The trick is to target low volatility that fuels trades. But its a fine balancing act and risks rewarding those who were betting on a China downturn.
The European Commission's latest economic forecasts include upward revisions to its GDP estimates this year in many of the EU's Central and East European (CEE) economies, where growth rates are expected to be among the fastest in the EU. Stronger recoveries in the Central Europe (CE) region in particular, driven by a pickup in domestic demand, are a key factor underpinning favorable investor sentiment towards the region, at a time when Emerging Europe is bearing the brunt of the selloff in emerging markets (EMs). The weakness of the Russian ruble, which has been exacerbated by the escalation in geopolitical tensions over Ukraine, and the persistent vulnerability of the Turkish lira are the most conspicuous examples of the recent shift in market concerns away from Emerging Asia and towards Emerging Europe.
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Growing tension in Ukraine and Russia dampened investors risk appetite, weighing on global stocks and sending the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc higher amid increased demand for safehaven assets. Worries over geopolitical uncertainty hit Europeans shares especially hard
Russia's Central Bank Lifts Key Rates Unexpectedly Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate unexpectedly by a massive 150 basis points on Monday, as rising concerns over the escalating crisis in Ukraine took the ruble to record lows against the U.S. dollar and caused the stock market to plummet. The Bank of Russia lifted its lending rate to 7.00 percent from 5.50 percent, citing rising risks to inflation and financial stability.
DANGER in the delay: A delay may be justified, but a delay in return to more normal central bank policy settings also carries dangers
BIS economists said there were risks from markets focusing too narrowly on certain aspects of Central Bank forward guidance and from central banks themselves potentially becoming too worried about markets' reaction, to the extent that it could delay a return to more normal policy settings. This could "raise the risk of an unhealthy accumulation of financial imbalances," the report said.
Developed economies are less resilient to an emerging-market shock than they were in the 1990s, when crises from Thailand to Russia rattled investors without triggering a global recession. Thats according to an 81-page study released March 5 by
Morgan Stanley economists and strategists. They estimate a 1990s-style slump in emerging-market demand would create an average drag of 1.4 percent for four quarters on the growth of the U.S., while the euro area and Japan probably would be tipped into recession. Reasons for the greater vulnerability include the fact that developing markets, and especially China, now have a stronger impact on the worlds economy, supply chains and trade. Emerging economies account for about half of global gross domestic product, up from 37 percent in 1997-1998. Developed economies are also more exposed to their smaller counterparts via exports, corporate revenue and banking, and the financial crisis of 2008 means they are weaker now than two decades ago
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CHINA EXPORTS: Many believe that the export growth data are distorted --- likely in three different ways: (1) exporters tend to rush their production and shipments ahead of the Chinese New Year, creating a slump for February; (2) this year the Chinese New Year arrived earlier, making the February figure look even weaker; and (3) there was a considerable amount of falsified invoice in exports last year for carry-trade.
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A new CBO report projects that the ACA will cost $2 trillion, and 2.5 million jobs, over its first decade.
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Threat to recovery:
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Enlightenment
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Household wealth in the U.S. increased from October through December, as gains in stock portfolios and home prices boosted Americans finances. Net worth for households and non-profit groups rose by $2.95 trillion in the fourth quarter, or 3.8 percent from the previous three months, to a record $80.7 trillion, the Federal Reserve said today from Washington in its financial accounts report, previously known as the flow of funds survey.
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Competition among Chinas creditrating agencies is intensifying, leading to a slide in standards reminiscent of what happened in the U.S. before the financial crisis, according to Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.
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The Texas utility renamed Energy Future is nearly bust sixplus years after the $45 bln takeover led by KKR and TPG. A flock of buyout firms and hedge funds, including Apollo and Avenue, are clawing at each other for the scraps. This odd beast has juicy bits buried in its books.
Germanindustrialoutputroseforathirdconsecutivemonthin Januaryasmildwinterweatherboostedconstructionactivity.
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AustralianeconomybuildsonChinademandforproperty
--A construction boom driven by Chinese demand for Australian property could play a key role in rebalancing the economy after mining investment boom
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Federal forecasters predict a warming of the central Pacific Ocean this year that will change weather worldwide. Globally, it can mean an even hotter year coming up and billions of dollars in losses for food crops. The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Nino watch Thursday. An El Nino is a warming of the central Pacific once every few years, from a combination of wind and waves in the tropics. It shakes up climate around the world, changing rain and temperature patterns.
Canada is set to phase out tariffs on South Korean auto imports in less than five years as part of a free trade deal with Seoul, according to a person familiar with the matter. Canada's deal with South Korea, Ottawa's first such deal in the fast-growing Asian-Pacific region, is expected to be announced
Europeriskslosingadvanced combataircraftindustry
BAE Systems (BAES) recently confirmed a 7 billion dollar contract to supply 72 Eurofighter Typhoon fighters and lifetime support to Saudi Arabia. Following the loss of a 9 billion dollar order from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and failure to secure an even bigger deal with India, the Saudi contract has given BAES and the fournation Eurofighter consortium vital breathing space in the battle to secure export orders. However, Typhoon has had limited export success so far, and Eurofighter has struggled to secure support for further development that would improve its bomber capabilities a major limitation in export battles with its French and US competitors.
Safeways $9.4 billion sale to the owner of rival supermarket operator Albertsons means that, after years of shrinking, it will be part of something much bigger. But the merger's success will hinge partly on whether Safeway can operate more like a local grocer. While size and national scale offer advantages to supermarket chains, such as more purchasing power with suppliers, their business largely depends on catering to local demand. One thing Albertsons has done well under its private-equity owners, a group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP, is to give regional managers more voice in key decisions such as what products to stock, say analysts and industry consultants. That's an area in which Safeway has sometimes stumbled.
Wireless Bills Go Up, and Stay Up Competition in the U.S. wireless market has increased over the past year, but so have Americans' overall phone bills.
Google Fibers gigabit service appears to be gaining momentum. The company said last month it has invited 34 cities across nine major metropolitan areas to explore ways to bring the service to their citizens, signaling its ready to make a substantial investment in the venture.
Cyber security start-ups have become the latest fascination for Silicon Valley investors, who have flooded the sector with venture capital investment as they seek to back the latest technology to combat criminals online. Early-stage funding for the sector soared by almost 60 per cent last year to $244m worldwide, according to data from research group PrivCo. The number of deals rose even faster, up more than 100 per cent year-on-year to more than one a week. The figures imply multibillion-dollar valuations in total for these young companies, which often only have a small number of employees.
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Investors are willing to pay more than twice as much for offices on the upper floors of Hong Kong skyscrapers than for equivalent space in Manhattan, Knight Frank LLP said.
Despite proven academic success of NYCs charter schools, the mayor and unions have started a war on citys charter kids
Londonskylinetoberadicallyreshaped
Report reveals 236 towers being built or in the pipeline
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