Decolonization coincided with the 'golden age' of capitalism, with record rises in popular living standards. Yet there were links between economic performance and the decline of the Empire. Despite the good performance, profoundly pessimistic 'declinist' accounts abounded in the early 1960s.
Decolonization coincided with the 'golden age' of capitalism, with record rises in popular living standards. Yet there were links between economic performance and the decline of the Empire. Despite the good performance, profoundly pessimistic 'declinist' accounts abounded in the early 1960s.
Decolonization coincided with the 'golden age' of capitalism, with record rises in popular living standards. Yet there were links between economic performance and the decline of the Empire. Despite the good performance, profoundly pessimistic 'declinist' accounts abounded in the early 1960s.
and the Economic Decline of Britain Abstract In the 1950s and 1960s, decolonization coincided with the golden age of British capitalism, with record rises in popular living standards. Economic historians have understandably used this coincidence to suggest that by this period the British Empire was no longer offering substantial economic benefits to the mass of the metropolitan population. Yet there were links between economic performance and the decline of the Empire. First, despite the good performance, profoundly pessimistic declinist accounts of British society and the economy abounded in the early 1960s, and these had a major impact on policy formation. A key underpinning for such accounts was the culture of decline intimately linked with the loss of imperial status. Secondly, while it has become a commonplace of discussion of post-war Britain to assume that reversing decline and modernizing the economy required a re-orientation of policy away from the Empire and Commonwealth towards Europe, such a reorientation was not a constant feature of modernization strategies. Indeed, a central feature of the initial period of Wilsonian modernization after 1964 was its attempt to use closer links with the Commonwealth to achieve this objective. Introduction In a recent essay, Charles Feinstein has highlighted the fact that the 1950s and 1960s saw the dissolution of the formal British Empire at the same Twentieth Century British History, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2003, pp. 201221 OUP 2003, all rights reserved * I amgrateful to participants in a seminar at the Institute of Contemporary British History Summer Conference, July 2002, and especially to Peter Cain, for helpful comments. time as Britain was enjoying an equally remarkable phase of successful economic performance, the best ever achieved in more than two centuries of modern economic growth. 1 He goes on to argue that this combination reflected the fact that for the British economy as a whole (as opposed to small groups of shareholders and landowners), colonial possessions did not offer significant benefits; they did not offer expanding markets, cheap imports, or returns on assets large enough to affect the living standards of the mass of the population. In his view, while the Empire may have imposed substantial costs on British possessions, after 1951 at least there were no commensurate benefits to Britain lost by imperial decline. Links with the White Dominions and India mattered more to Britain than those with the colonies, but by this time the former were able to bargain with Britain, so that any concessions to British interests were offset by compensating advantages to themselves. 2 The perception of the 1950s and 1960s as the golden age for the British economy is clearly accurate, but equally it is retrospective. While Harold Macmillan may have suggested in 1957 that the British had never had it so good, such positive views were soon to be drowned out by a wave of negative assessments of British economic performance, so that to most contemporary actors the golden age increasingly became seen as a period of economic decline. By the early 1960s a discourse of declinism hadbeen established, with profound effects on British society and politics that were to last for much of the rest of the century. 3 The purpose of this paper is to explore the links between this discourse and the economic policies associated with it, and imperial decline in the post-war period. How far did contemporary perceptions of imperial issues feed into belief in decline, and how did those who wanted to reverse decline by modernization perceive the imperial connection? In other words, how important was the Empire to British understandings of their economy and the policy options available to British governments? Examination of these questions may also provide a different perspective on the long-argued view that British imperial decline had surprisingly little impact on British politics. 4 1 C. Feinstein, The Endof Empire andthe GoldenAge, inP. Clarke andC. Trebilcock (eds), Understanding Decline: Perceptions and Realities of British Economic Performance (Cambridge, 1997), 213. 2 Ibid., 2313. 3 A. Horne, Macmillan, Vol. 2. 195786 (London, 1989), 3; J. Tomlinson, The Politics of Decline (Harlow, 2001); idem., Inventing Decline; the Falling Behind of the British Economy in the Post-war Years, Economic History Review, 49 (1996), 73157. 4 J. Darwin, Fear of Falling: British Politics and Imperial Decline Since 1900, Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, 36 (1986), 2743. 202 J I M TOML I NS ON Declinism While the debate on decline focused on the perceived failure in economic performance, especially growth, that failure led to critiques of British society that went much wider than strictly economic issues. A huge body of literature was generated which linked decline to almost every facet of British society, a body of literature which in retrospect appears extra- ordinarily negative in proportion to the scale of the economic problems even as they were calculated at this time. The culture of declinism was arguably overblown, ill-focused, and quite often absurd, but there is no doubt about the strength of feeling it signified, at least amongst the chatter- ing classes. 5 What could explain the strength of these feelings? Stuart Ward has persuasively argued that a key underpinning was the post-Suez sense of declining global power, hinging on the decline of the Empire, which was reaching a key phase, with the winds of change speech being made at precisely the same time as the Whats Wrong with Britain literature was getting into its stride. 6 At its most general, what linked the rhetoric of declinism and imperial decline was the belief that Britain had lost its sense of purpose, a key word in the declinist lexicon. 7 Ward quotes Anthony Sampsons characteristic linking of these issues: A loss of dynamic and purpose, and a general bewilderment, are felt by many people, both at the top and bottom in Britain today . . . it is hardly surprising that, in twenty years since the war, Britain should have felt confused about her purposewith those acres of red on the map dwindling, the mission of the war dissolving, and the whole imperial mythology of battleships, governors and generals gone forever. 8 Those searching for culprits for decline commonly focused their anger on the incapacity of Britains rulersthe Establishmentwhose whole education and outlook was deemed inadequate to rule modern Britain. This incapacity, it was alleged, derived in large part fromthe public schools and Oxbridge, who produced a conservative, effete clique suited to be pro-consuls of Empire but unfitted to the requirements of purposive economic modernization. 9 Declinists, largely located on the centre-left of the political spectrum, generally welcomed the formal process of decolonization. But the virulence of their response reflected a politically more ambiguous position; to some degree possession of an empire was, in 5 For the depths of declinism(in both senses) see, for example, A. Koestler (ed.), Suicide of a Nation (London, 1963). 6 S. Ward (ed.), British Culture and the End of Empire (Manchester, 2001), 811. 7 For the importance of purpose, see, for example, M. Shanks, The Stagnant Society (Harmondsworth, 1961), introduction; H. Wilson, Purpose in Politics (London, 1964); idem., Purpose in Power (London, 1966). 8 A. Sampson, Anatomy of Britain (1962), xiii and 620, quoted in Ward, British Culture, 9. 9 J. Vaizey, The Public Schools, in H. Thomas (ed.), The Establishment (London, 1959), 2437. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 203 economists terms, a status good, and so, as Feinstein puts it: The blow to the countrys pride and sense of national greatness from the loss of status associated with possession of a glorious empire may also have hadan effect on morale and attitudes at all levels of British society, not excluding, one might add, the progressive intelligentsia. 10 While the broad linkage between imperial decline and the breadth and virulence of what might be called the culture of 1960s declinismneeds to be stressed, a more specific, directly economic link was also very important in accounts of Britains problems. This was articulated most clearly and influentially by Andrew Shonfield in his British Economic Policy since the War. This may stand alongside Michael Shankss The Stagnant Society to form the foundation texts of most of the narratives of decline down to the present day. 11 While Shanks focused on the attitudinal/cultural deficiencies of British societys elites, including especially of trade union leaders, Shonfield argued that the main reasons for economic decline were errors of economic policy. These errors were fundamentally ones of overstretch, of excessive overseas, primarily imperial, commitments that the domestic economy could not afford. Hence the balance of payments was burdened with too high a level of military expenditure, excessive foreign investment and, above all, the costs of the sterling area. For Shonfield these burdens linked directly to slow growth through the creation of a vulnerable balance-of-payments position, requiring frequent policies of restraint and deflation that inhibited investment. 12 The argument that Britains decline was the consequence of these imperial hangovers has subsequently generated a huge body of literature, which, until recently, had tended to elaboration and refinement rather than fundamental critique. But recent work allows us to insert considerable scepticism into any such account. In part, this is an effect of revaluations of how much decline actually occurred in Britain in this period, with the convergence and catch-up literature suggesting that while Britain could undoubtedly have grown faster, the scope for this was much more limited than much pessimistic literature suggests. 13 Linked to this has been a growing attack on many of the broad suppositions of the declinist critique of Britain; for example, the supposedly anti-technological character of 10 Feinstein, End of Empire, 215. As Ward shows, there was great deal of political ambiguity in much of the satire that formed part of the declinist outpouring: No Nation Could be Broker, in Ward, British Culture, esp. 1067. 11 A. Shonfield, British Economic PolicySince the War (Harmondsworth, 1958); M. Shanks, The Stagnant Society (Harmondsworth, 1961). 12 Shonfield did not use the term stopgo, though the process he described was soon to gain notoriety under that name. 13 N. Crafts, The GoldenAge andEconomic GrowthinWesternEurope, 195073, Economic History Review, 48 (1995), 42947; C. Feinstein, Structural Change in the Developed Countries During the Twentieth Century, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 15 (1999), 3555. 204 J I M TOML I NS ON British culture has been devastatingly criticizedby David Edgerton. 14 More specifically, there has been powerful criticism of the imperial overhang argument, especially the linking of Britains decline to the impact of the sterling area. The sterling area was formed of all those countries that held their international reserves largely in sterling and fixed their exchange rate to the pound. It was not coterminous with the Empire, Canada being a notable absentee, while non-Empire counties like Kuwait were important members. Nevertheless, as Miller argued, Although there was a clear formal distinctionbetweenthe SterlingArea andthe Commonwealth, there was no such distinction politically . . . Britains leadership of the economic grouping helped to reinforce its traditional leadership of the political grouping. 15 The idea that defence of the sterling area damaged Britains economy did not originate with Shonfield; there had been a rising tide of such criticism from the mid-1950s. 16 Shonfields contribution was to link such criticisms to a general critique of British economic policy, but un- doubtedly making defence of that area the cardinal error. His argument has been most effectively criticized by Catherine Schenk. 17 She shows that from the 1950s all four of the alleged deleterious effects of the area on Britain were greatly exaggerated. First was the idea that accumulations of sterling balances overseas were like a sword of Damocles hanging over the reserves; in fact, a large part of these were remarkably stable, certainly from the mid-1950s, acting as backing to colonial currencies. Secondly, she disputes the view that sterling area markets were a soft touch for British producers, thus weakening their competitive edge. Britain was losing market share in the Commonwealth just as fast as elsewhere, the problem being a general one of rising competition for British exports. 18 Thirdly, while the sterling area did facilitate the outflow of capital as Shonfield suggests, this outflow played a small part in Britains slow growth. Even if it had all been invested at home, on any plausible calculations about rates of return to investment it would not have raised growth more than a small fraction of a percentage point. Finally, she attacks the idea that defence of 14 D. Edgerton, England and the Aeroplane (London, 1991); idem., Science, Technology and he British Industrial Decline (Cambridge, 1996). 15 J. B. D. Miller, Survey of Commonwealth Affairs: Problems of Expansion and Contraction 19531969 (Oxford, 1974), 271. 16 For example, A. Day, The Future of Sterling (Oxford, 1954). That such discussions were affecting policy debate is evident from the public records: for example, PRO, CAB 134/1675, Problems of the SterlingArea, 25June 1956; PRO, CAB134/1674, Economic PolicyCommittee Minutes, 20 February 1957. 17 C. Schenk, Britain and the Sterling Area: from Devaluation to Convertibility in the 1950s (London, 1994). 18 D. K. Fieldhouse The Metropolitan Economics of Empire, in Oxford History of the British Empire, Vol. 4. The Twentieth Century (Oxford, 1999), 88113; but see R. Major, Note on Britains Share in World Trade in Manufactures, National Institute Economic Review, 44 (1968), 506. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 205 the sterling area was crucial to the failure of Britain to devalue the pound more frequently or move to a floating exchange rate. There were many other reasons why this was done, the views of the sterling area being but a minor consideration. This critique is wide ranging and powerful, undermining both the specific case against the sterling area and the related suggestion by Shonfield that excessive overseas investment was central to Britains problems. This latter argument has continued be a particularly important feature of declinist literature post-Shonfield, and has commonly been joined to a broader thesis about the dominance of finance and the City in Britain. This view can be found in such varied work as that of Elbaum and Lazonick, Pollard, and Hutton. 19 More importantly in the context of discussion of the Empire, it can be found in the highly important work of Cain and Hopkins on British imperialism and gentlemanly capitalism. Their thesis focuses on the links between financial interests and the formation of imperial policy, with the key contention that throughout the history of the British Empire it was gentlemanly capitalists who were effectively in control. 20 Their argument as applied to the pre-1939 years has been criticized by a number of reviewers who dispute the City dominance thesis, arguing that both City and industry were commonly divided on imperial issues, and that in any event state policy cannot be reduced to the machinations of economic interest groups. 21 Cain and Hopkinss discussion of the post-1945 period is entitled Aftermath, without the enormous depth and detail of their discussions of the previous centuries. Nevertheless, in the account of this period they do reiterate the main thrust of their overall argument. After the war, they suggest, the central preoccupation of British policy . . . was the preser- vation of sterlings role in financing international trade and investment, and with it the maintenance of the earning power of the City of London. However, the time of formal empire was running out, and by the late 1950s policy-makers calculated that the City, and invisible earnings generally, had more to gain from emerging opportunities in the wider world than from remaining penned in the Sterling Area. As the value of the imperial component of the Sterling Area diminished, so did the economic obstacles to decolonisation. Cain and Hopkins clearly align their discussion of the post-war period with the work of declinists like Shonfield, the link being 19 B. Elbaum and W. Lazonick (eds), The Decline of the British Economy (Oxford, 1986); S. Pollard, The Wasting of the British Economy (London, 1982); W. Hutton, The State Were In (London, 1995). 20 P. Cain and A. Hopkins, British Imperialism: Innovation and Expansion 16881914 (London, 1993); idem., British Imperialism: Crisis and Deconstruction 19141990 (London, 1993). 21 M. Daunton, Gentlemanly Capitalismand British Industry, 18201914, Past and Present, 122 (1989), 11958. 206 J I M TOML I NS ON most obviously the assumption that financial interests largely dictated policy, whether it be in relation to domestic, international, or empire issues. 22 On the general character of British post-war policy, it should be emphasized that we are only just beginning to see archivally based work on this topic for the 1950s and1960s, andmuch remains unexplored. However, it can be argued that while Cain and Hopkins rightly stress the importance of the external orientation of much policy-making, this needs to be put alongside an undoubtedly important concern with domestic economic stability and living standards; indeed, policy-makers in the 1950s were increasingly concerned with the reconciliation of these two ambitions. 23 Secondly, on the perceived domination of policy-making by financial interests, it is sufficient to note here that the same kind of criticisms made about Cain and Hopkinss treatment of the pre-1939 period have relevance to the post-war decades. For example, the city was divided over policy at crucial points e.g. over ROBOT in 1952, and the actual policy outcome was not one that was dictated by the City. 24 Asimilar point can be made about the debate over public spending in 19578, where again the more financially conservative forces were defeated. 25 The problem with any simple equation of City interests with support of the sterling area/defence of the pound is also illustrated by policy after 1964. After Labour came to power their dogged defence of sterling owed much more to political calculation about the reputation of the Party and the realistic assessment of the impact of devaluation on working-class living standards than to City interests. 26 On the more specific issue of the demise of the sterling area as a motive for decolonization, Hopkins has reiterated this linkage in recent work. Undoubtedly, as he shows, Macmillans audit of the Empire was concerned with the economic consequences of imperial dissolution; nobody would suppose that would be a matter of indifference. 27 But to see this as the defining issues seems implausible. As Hyam argues, 22 Cain and Hopkins, Crisis and Deconstruction, 2656, 283; also D. Kroweski, Money and the End of Empire: British International Economic Policy and the Colonies, 194758 (Basingstoke, 2001); A. Hinds, Britains Sterling Colonial Policy and Decolonization, 19391958 (Westport, CT, 2001). 23 R. Holland, The Pursuit of Greatness: Britain and the World Role, 19001970 (London, 1991), ch. 8; N. Tiratsoo and J. Tomlinson, The Conservatives and Industrial Efficiency, 195164: Thirteen Wasted Years? (London, 1998), ch. 2. 24 Schenk, Britain, 11419; A. Booth Inflation, Expectations and the Political Economy of Conservative Britain, 19511964, Historical Journal, 43 (2000), 82747. 25 G. Peden, The Treasury and British Public Policy (Oxford, 2000), 48693. 26 R. Stones, Government-finance Relations in Britain, 196467: a Tale of Three Cities, Economy and Society, 19 (1990), 3255; T. Bale, Dynamics of a Non-decision: the Failure to Devalue the Pound, 19647, Twentieth Century British History, 10 (1999), 192217. 27 A. Hopkins, Macmillans Audit of Empire, in Clarke and Trebilcock, Understanding Decline, 23460. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 207 political considerations were predominant in decolonization. Economic con- siderations were in the nature of nihil obstat. Just as economic considerations had once facilitated the acquisition of territory, so now they operated in reverse. Territories could be given up when nothing essential seemed to be lost by transfer of political power-a conclusion reached for India by the 1940s and Africa by the 1960s. 28 One final strand of Shonfields original argument is that of overseas military expenditure. Here the view that imperial and global political ambition placed a damaging burden on the British economy seems better founded. By the 1960s, overseas spending of this type was a significant burden, running at 250m per annum at a time when this figure roughly equated to the scale of the governments target for the current account surplus. 29 But again, this problem needs to be kept in proportion. While overseas military spending was a problem, and damaged overseas confidence by suggesting that the British balance of payments was weaker than the commercial accounts implied, it was not the key issue in Britains growth performance. The key to the latter, as Feinstein argues, was not to do with the Empire but with savings and capital, technological progress and skilled labour, buoyant exports and a stable international economy. 30 Modernization and the Commonwealth Declinism associated the Empire and Commonwealth with outdated- ness, nostalgia, and lack of purpose. Unsurprisingly, this led many of its adherents to regard entry into the European Economic Community (EEC) as a key to reversing decline and modernizing the British economy. Shanks and Shonfield, characteristically, were both pro-Europeans. From the climate of ideas of the early 1960s arose that long-persistent centre-left assumption that serious economic modernizers would necessarily be enthusiasts for Britains membership of the EEC and, conversely, that modernization would involve rejection of Commonwealth illusions. 31 Whatever the polemical and political force of this link, it is highly misleading as an understanding of the ideas of many modernizers in the mid-1960s. This can be seen if we look at Labours attitude to the Commonwealth in the 1950s and 1960s. 28 R. Hyam, The Primacy of Geo-Politics: the Dynamics of British Imperial Policy, 17631963, Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History, 27 (1999), 2752. 29 A. Manser, Britain in Balance (1971), ch. 9; R. Middleton, Struggling with the Impossible: Sterling, the Balance of Payments and British Economic Policy, 194972, in W. Young and A. Arnon (eds), The Open Economy Macro Model: Past Present and Future (Amsterdam, 2002), 20231. 30 Feinstein, End of Empire, 232. 31 For example, R. Denman, Missed Chances, Britain and Europe in the Twentieth Century (London, 1996); R. Broad, Labours European Dilemmas from Bevin to Blair (London, 2001). 208 J I M TOML I NS ON As is well known, Labour was enthusiastic about the Commonwealth in the 1940s, undoubtedly helped by the clear economic benefits arising from the use of Commonwealth exports to supply scarce dollars to the sterling area. 32 But the link also fitted with Labours ideological predispositions to see the Commonwealth as both an important arena for maintaining Britains influence and an arena in which social democratic ideas might be promulgated. In the long years in opposition that followed the Attlee government, Labour worked to strengthen Commonwealth links. In 1958 the Commonwealth Advisory Committee of the Partys National Executive Committee became a full Commonwealth Department, energetically led by John Hatch. It held meetings of Commonwealth Socialist leaders, and though the practical results of these are difficult to see, they did provide a channel for articulating Labours allegiance to the Commonwealth, and in the early 1960s for attacking the Conservatives betrayal in the Common Market negotiations. 33 Some voices were raised against this posture, with, for example, Roy Jenkins dismissing the idea of the Commonwealth as a feasible tight economic unit in 1962. 34 But in the years running up to the 1964 election, the main thrust of Labour policy was to present the weakening economic link with the Commonwealth as an undesirable and reversible consequence of Conservative policy. This stance flowed from a number of factors. Doctrinally, the Commonwealth (along with the sterling area) could be made to fit with long-held notions of planned trade and the rejection of Tory laissez-faire and liberalization. Such views were still strong in Labour circles into the 1960s, articulated most forcefully by Thomas Balogh, a key economic adviser and long-term critic of post-war mutilateralism. 35 Particularly on the left of the Party such views were often allied to a growing concern with aiding the development of the poor countries of the Commonwealth, who were seen as potential gainers from greater exchanges of their exports of commodities for Britains manu- factures. The establishment of Overseas Development Ministry under Labour signalled the seriousness of this concern with development, but how far such concerns were compatible with an emphasis on encouraging 32 Krozewski, Money, chs 4 and 5; Hinds, Britains Sterling Colonial Policy, chs 24; for a contrary view, see T. Rooth, Economic Tensions and Conflict in the Commonwealth, 1945c.1951, Twentieth Century British History 13 (2002), 12143. 33 Labour Party Archives (Manchester), Conferences with Commonwealth Labour and Socialist leaders, June 1957 and September 1962; P. Gupta, Imperialism and the British Labour Movement 19141964 (London, 1975), ch. 11. 34 Roy Jenkins in Fabian International Bureau, The Common Market Debate (1962), 11. 35 T. Balogh, Unequal Partners, Vol. II (Oxford, 1963); K. Morgan, Imperialismat Bay: British Labour and Decolonization, Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History 27 (1990), 242, says Labour saw the Commonwealth as an international laboratory of experiment for a broad programme of economic advance, technological improvement andeducational change to raise the skills of the third world. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 209 Commonwealth links was to prove a thorny issue for Labour whilst in power. 36 Another economic aspect of the Commonwealth link was the access it gave Britain to the cheap temperate food products of the developed Commonwealth (grain fromCanada, butter andcheese fromNewZealand, meat from Australia), products that could be seen as significant contributors to the standard of life of the British worker. This was a key concern of figures such as Douglas Jay, on the right of the Party. 37 Of course, these seeming economic attractions of the Commonwealth issue were combined with political and electoral calculation. The Conservative attempt to secure British entry into the EEC in 19613 (and the hostility this approach aroused in the Commonwealth) provided an opportunity for Labour to present itself as the champion of the Commonwealth, a theme of Hugh Gaitskells famous anti-EEC speech of 1962. 38 Gaitskells successor, Harold Wilson, had been Trade Minister in the 1940s, when the Commonwealth economic link was at its peak, but combined this potent memory with an only partly sentimental view that the Commonwealth was a key to Britains status as a world power. It was characteristic, therefore, that in a House of Commons debate in 1961 on the EEC application he had acted as a defender of the Commonwealth: We are not entitled to sell our friends and kinsmen down the river for a problematical and marginal advantage in selling washing machines in Dusseldorf. But Wilson and Labours concern with the Commonwealth was not just opportunistic politics and high-flown words. In the pre- election years a detailed programme aimed at reinvigorating the economic links with the Commonwealth was developed, and this was central to Labours approach to the economy in 1964, a fact obscured in most of the accounts of the period by the subsequent turn away from the Common- wealth and application for EEC entry. 39 In a debate in the Commons in 1964, Harold Wilson cited the figures on the weakening of the Commonwealth trade link and attacked Tory defeat- ism on the issue. This doctrine of the inevitability of Commonwealth decline has become part of the tribal mythology of the party opposite. In his speech, Wilson put forward a ten-point plan to encourage Commonwealth trade. This included a proposal for preferences in the way of capital contracts in publicly financed projects, guaranteed markets for 36 For an insider but critical account, see D. Seers and P. Streeten, Overseas Development Policies, in W. Beckerman (ed.), The Labour Governments Economic Record 19641970 (London, 1972), 11856. 37 D. Jay, Change and Fortune: a Political Record (London, 1980), ch. 13. 38 P. Williams, Hugh Gaitskell (Oxford, 1982), 4068. 39 P. Ziegler, Wilson: The AuthorisedLife (London, 1993), 131, also64, 66, 219; B. Pimlott, Harold Wilson(London, 1992), 4334; J. B. D. Miller, Survey of Commonwealth Affairs (Oxford, 1974), 291. On the second application, see O. Daddow (ed.), Wilson and Europe 196467 (London, 2002). 210 J I M TOML I NS ON Commonwealth products in Britain, development of industries in Britain to supply Commonwealth investment needs, world-wide commodity agreements to stabilize primary product prices, and the expansion of world liquidity especially to favour underdeveloped countries. Most of these proposals found their way into a prominent position in Labours election manifesto, which asserted that the Labour Party is convinced that the first responsibility of a British Government is still to the Commonwealth. 40 These were the main elements in a programme that was to be at the centre of Labours economic discussions about the Commonwealth in the years after 1964, but which was ultimately to prove largely unworkable. The failure to find a plausible Commonwealth alternative in the early years of the Wilson government was one important element in Labours decision to apply for EEC membership, as analysed further below. But was this immense change of direction simply a giving up of a sentimental illusion in the face of the realism of policy-making in office, or was the Commonwealth option ditched too easily for the sake of what was in some respects an equally problematical and emotional attachment to Europe? Governmental discussions of Labours programme for strengthen- ing Commonwealth links was largely organized around major formal Commonwealth meetings. The first of these following the 1964 election was of Commonwealth Prime Ministers in June 1965. The agenda of this meeting was dominated by the contentious issue of Rhodesia, which was preparing to make a unilateral declaration of independence (in November 1965), but it provided a platform for Wilson to push the key items of his plan, focusing especially on gaining an agreement to have a Commonwealth Trade Ministers conference to encourage trade linksa meeting to develop the idea of co-ordinating Commonwealth countries plans as a basis for preference inpublic procurement. 41 The Trade Ministers meeting was a key event in exposing doubts about the plan, the meeting itself and the preparatory gathering of officials showing the difficulties of reversing the trend away from close Commonwealth economic ties. Much of the internal governmental discussion on Commonwealth economic issues came together in the Official Committee on Commercial Policy. A key initial paper was put to this committee in spring 1965 by the Board of Trade, its disappointing conclusions being endorsed by other departments. 42 This paper expressed scepticism on the prospects of 40 House of Commons, Hansard, 6 February 1964, reprinted in H. Wilson, The New Britain: Selected Speeches 1964 (1964), ch. 8; manifesto statement in Craig, General Election Manifestos 195987 (Aldershot, 1970), 56. 41 H. Wilson, The Labour Government 196470: APersonal Record, (London, 1974), 161. 42 PRO, CAB 134/1470, Chairmans note, Britains Trade with the Commonwealth, 29 March 1965, covering Board of Trade, Britains Trade with the Commonwealth, 1 March 1965. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 211 realizing the governments ambitions on grounds which were to be largely echoed in all discussions over the next few years. These grounds, though overlapping and inter-related, may be summarized as fourfold: howfar the Commonwealth was the key arena in which Britain should pursue its trade policies; whether Britain could expect any reciprocal gains from any trade concessions it might make to other Commonwealth countries; whether there was any realistic scope for co-ordination of plans leading to Commonwealth preference in public procurement; and whether there could be closer links between British provision of finance to Common- wealth countries and their trading decisions. On the first point, the core aim of Labours international trade policy, following that of the Conservatives, was to support liberalization through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) process, which meant at this time pushing for tariff and quota reductions in the Kennedy Round, which began in 1962 but was not concluded until 1967, with implementation beginning in 1968. 43 This strategy reflected worries that the world was developing a growing number of trading blocs which threatened to restrict British trade opportunities. Such fears had, of course, informed the Conservative approach to the EEC at a time when that body was seen as likely to develop a forbidding Common External Tariff. As the Board of Trade spelt out in frank terms, this focus clearly meant the Commonwealth hadsecondplace inBritish policy: Since our main concern in the Kennedy Round is to negotiate concessions with the major non-Commonwealth developed countries (and we would not wish to jeopardise an advantageous settlement with them merely in deference to Commonwealth interests) . . . 44 (emphasis added). Officials at the pre- paratory meeting in November 1965 endorsed this view, spelling out the implications that: The world-wide reduction of tariffs and other barriers to trade was likely to be the most successful and rapid method of developing trade both within and between the Commonwealth and the rest of the world, and Commonwealth trade has to be considered in the context of world trade and a closed Commonwealth trading system would be neither feasible nor desirable. 45 The practical implication of this perspective was that the primary arenas for Britain and the other Commonwealth countries to pursue trade policy 43 D. Lee, Middle Powers and Commercial Diplomacy: British Influences at the Kennedy Trade Round (New York, 1999); E. H. Preeg, Traders and Diplomats: An Analysis of the Kennedy Round under the GATT (New York, 1970). 44 PRO, CAB 134/1472, Board of Trade, Commonwealth Preference and the Kennedy Round, 13 May 1965. 45 PRO, CAB 134/1475, Board of Trade, Meeting of Commonwealth Trade Officials Nov. 1965, 15 December 1965; also DO215/135, Note by Chairmanof Economic Development (Official) Committee, Commonwealth PMs Conference June 1965, 7 April 1965. 212 J I M TOML I NS ON aims should be global bodies like the GATT and the United Nations Con- ference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), not the Commonwealth. Thus, when, for example, Ceylon suggested a revival of the Common- wealth Shipping Committee, the Commercial Policy Committees view was clear: the Commonwealth was not an economic unit nor a shipping unit, and the issue should be pursued through UNCTAD. This meant that, at best, Commonwealth trade discussions would be about co-ordinating approaches to GATT and UNCTAD meetings. 46 But even this much reduced aim was reliant on a belief in a commonality of interest within the Commonwealth, which became an increasingly difficult view to sustain. The result was that Commonwealth meetings became more of a framework for bilateral bargaining than a basis for general discussion and agreement. 47 This leads on to the second problem mentioned above, the degree of likely reciprocal concessions between Britain and her Commonwealth partners. As far as the underdeveloped countries of the Commonwealth (the majority by the early 1960s) were concerned, any belief incommonality of interest that might have existed was undermined by the deterioration in their terms of trade from their Korean War peak, especially when this was widely seen as a secular trend rather than a cyclical phenomena. This pessimistic view was most ably articulated by Raul Prebisch, who became the first Secretary-General of UNCTADin 1962, that body in turn becoming a mouthpiece for the poor countries of the world in their search for more favourable market conditions. 48 Because of the concern to be seen as supporting the aims of the poor countries, Britain and other rich countries accepted, at least in principle, the view articulated at UNCTAD that they should grant trade concessions to underdeveloped countries without seeking reciprocity. 49 Because it had adopted this role as advocate of the poor, UNCTAD had obvious attractions to underdeveloped Commonwealth countries, attractions superior to those of a body which contained both the rich and the poor. Increased consciousness and articulation of the division between rich and poor was unlikely to aid the coherence of the Commonwealth. More practically, a concern with raising global primary product prices, central to the politics of underdevelopment in this period, was bound to leave the Commonwealth largely on the sidelines, as its main markets for 46 PRO, CAB 134/2626, Official Committee on Commercial Policy, Minutes, 2 May 1966; PRO, CAB 134/1475, Meeting of Officials. 47 PRO, CAB134/1473, Boardof Trade ,UKObjectives at Meeting of CommonwealthTrade Officials, 6 September 1965. 48 S. Dell, The Origins of UNCTAD, in M. Z. Cutajor (ed.), UNCTAD and the South North Dialogue (Oxford,1985), 1032. 49 PRO, CAB 134/1472, Britains Trade with the Commonwealth. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 213 such products (within which Britain overwhelmingly predominated) were simply not large enough to be able to seriously affect the world pricetea being the one and only major exception to this generalization. 50 While the Labour governments concern with the conditions of the worlds poor was genuine, it clearly had its limits. Trade concessions that aided (mainly) poor countries, such as the Commonwealth Sugar Agreement (CSA), were under scrutiny because of the perception of their radical impact on import prices. The CSA, begun in 1951, was until 1967 rolled-over annually for a further period of six years. The stated reason for ceasing to do so was the impending discussions with the EEC, but there seems to have been a determination to restrict its scope and cost irrespective of the EEC issue. 51 Poor countries were concerned to expand their exports of manufactured goods as well as to get better prices for primary products. Here again, the Commonwealth proved to be of limited benefit to them. While Britain was more generous than other rich countries in allowing access to key products such as textiles, for balance-of-payments and employment reasons the trend in this period was towards a tightening not loosening of import controls. 52 Britain under Wilson was, of course, seriously concerned with the balance of payments and public expenditure, and this was bound to lead to questioning of the amount of aid to poor countries. The establishment of the Ministry of Overseas Development signalled Labours recognition of the new agenda of world poverty, but the level of aid channelled through it was constrained by these macroeconomic problems. This aid (most of which went to Commonwealth countries) rose sharply in the early years of the Wilson government, but then, after sharp internal disputes, fell back. 53 Conversely, the viewof poor members of the Commonwealth in this period was increasingly that the purpose of belonging to that body and attending its meetings was to increase economic aid, rather than to bargain over mutual benefits. 54 This circle might have been squared by more aid tied to purchases of British exports, but the results of investigations into the possibility of this were uniformly negative. It was pointed out that Britain was not and could not be a big enough aid giver to greatly affect trade 50 PRO, CAB 134/1474, Board of Trade, Commodities, 22 November 1965. 51 CSAprices were commonly asserted to be twice world prices, but world prices had very little meaning in such a restricted market. Miller, Survey, 289; PRO, CAB 134/3036, Extension of Commonwealth Sugar Agreement, 9 November 1967; Extension of Commonwealth Sugar Agreement, 29 October 1968. Australia also benefited from the CSA. 52 A. D. Morgan, Commercial Policy, inF. T. Blackaby (ed.), British Economic Policy 196074 (Cambridge, 1978), 527. 53 Seers and Streeten, Overseas Development Policies; compare B. Tew, Policies Aimed at Improving the Balance of Payments, in Blackaby, British Economic Policy, 31920. 54 Wilson, Labour Government, 161. 214 J I M TOML I NS ON volumes; that in any event, tied aid was generally unpopular with its recipients; and that tying might even worsen the situation, because currently Britain did well in competing for orders from untied aid in countries like India, whereas if more were tied we might end up with a smaller share of the market. 55 Reciprocal trading agreements with the rich White Commonwealth countries facedobstacles well knownsince the time of JosephChamberlain. Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, while happy with any concessions granted in the British market, were developing their own manufacturing industries, and wanted protection against British manufactures. They were not willing to play the role of simply suppliers of cheap food and raw materials to Britain, and recognized that to develop their manufacturing exports they had to look well beyond Britain and the Commonwealth. This was well understood in Britain: they wish to build up their new industries and would not wish to impair their relations with their other trading partners who now do twice as much business with the Commonwealth as we do, and offer more scope for increase. In addition, while some British ministers emphasized the benefits to the consumer and to industrial costs of cheap food and raw materials, the National Plan of 1965 had called for further subsidized expansion of agricultural production. 56 The Wilsonian enthusiasm for domestic economic planning had its reflection in debates about the Commonwealth. Wilsons idea was that discussion of each others plans would enable market opportunities to be identified, especially in capital goods, and governments would then encourage Commonwealth preference in those areas where the state had procurement responsibilities. Such a policy faced clear obstacles. First, planning was not in vogue in all of the Commonwealth, especially Australia and Canada, so there was often little to co-ordinate. On the other hand, India, with much more planning than Britain, had to be reminded that in a capitalist economy the amount of control exercisedby government was strictly limited. 57 Secondly, all governments were wary of buying other than on the basis of cost effectiveness. Somewhat embarrassingly, the British government itself made little use of procurement as a domestic 55 PRO, CAB 134/2628, Treasury, Procurement by Public Authorities, 2 May 1966; T312/1113, Treasury, Financial Advantages of Commonwealth Membership, 16 March 1965, points out that the Franc zonewas not arelevant model for Commonweathrelations, consisting of a small group of poor countries andone overwhelmingly dominant mother country. On this see also DO 215/135, Commonwealth PMs Conference. 56 PRO, CAB134/1472, Britains Trade; Department of Economic Affairs, The National Plan (London, 1965), 13541. 57 PRO, CAB 134/3038, Board of Trade, Imports of Butter, 24 January 1969; ibid., Board of Trade, UK Objectives at Meeting of Commonwealth Trade Officials, 6 September 1965; PRO, CAB 134/2626, Official Committee on Commercial Policy, Meeting, 2 May 1966; PRO, CAB 134/2627, Three Indian Papers for Discussion by Commonwealth Trade Officials, 20 March 1966. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 215 policy instrument, the only example where this was done in the early years of Labour being computers. Finally, even if the political will existed, key countries such as Australia and Canada had federal constitutions, where central government did not control the activities of state or provincial governments. This meant the proposal was at best only plausible in areas such as defence, where national governments were always the responsible bodies. But here, Commonwealth governments had often developed strong ties to American armaments suppliers that wouldbe hardfor Britain to break. In sum, while pious declarations on this issue, such as the one already secured at the Commonwealth meeting in Montreal in 1958, might be endorsed, the idea of international planning remained largely empty words. 58 All of the lines of argument outlined above tell a story of unrealistic hopes being entertained by Labour at the time it entered office about the prospect of developing closer economic ties with the Commonwealth. Overwhelmingly, the advice fromwithin the official machine was that such expectations were unrealizable. But was this a case of civil servants articulating a Whitehall view and blocking more radical policies that might otherwise have been pursued by a Labour government? Three arguments tell against such a view. First, powerful ministerial advocates of closer Commonwealth ties, most notably Douglas Jay at the Board of Trade, were unable to find any arguments against those put forward by the civil servants. He was reduced to making proposals notably for Commonwealth free trade areaswhich he himself stated to be unrealistic and purely gestural. This rather pathetic posturing was clearly a recognition that there were no other serious proposals that could be put forward, and that all Britain could offer was gestures. 59 Secondly, lack of enthusiasm was a feature not just of Whitehall in the face of Wilsons Commonwealth ideas. Governments in other Common- wealth countries reacted extremely cautiously to invitations to discuss Britains initiatives; they were willing to discuss British proposals, but they found little to engage their enthusiasm. Many were more concerned with pursuing their own trade agendas, such as Nigerias search for a trade link with the EEC, which was causing much annoyance in Whitehall at this time. 60 Thirdly, the only persistent advocate of the Commonwealth idea was 58 PRO, CAB 134/2628, Treasury, Procurement by Public Authorities, 2 May 1966; PRO, CAB 134/1473, Board of Trade, Proposals for Meetings on Commonwealth Trade Agreements, 22 July 1965. 59 PRO, PREM 13/183, D. Jay to H. Wilson, 3 June 1965. 60 PRO, CAB 134/1746, Meeting of Commonwealth Trade Officials, 29 November 1965; PRO, DO 162/37, Michael Stewart to Harold Wilson, 3 March 1965; PRO, CAB 134/1475, Official Committee on Commercial Policy, Meeting, 23 March 1965. 216 J I M TOML I NS ON Balogh, and apart from the general distrust he aroused, there was the clear problem that he unashamedly saw the Commonwealth as a protective block, which put him at odds with the general Labour as well as Whitehall perception the such blocs were a danger to Britain. Akey reason for Labour support for the Kennedy Round was the belief that it offered a defence against the perceived threat of the growth of trade blocs; similarly, its eventual approach to the EEC was based on fears of being left out of this (initially) highly protected bloc. For these reasons, most senior figures in the Labour Party had become noticeably more pro-free trade than in the 1950s. Balogh seems to have underestimated the strength of this tide of opinion amongst Labours leaders, and this led him to focus too much attention on official attitudes as the obstruction to his proposals. He was also out of kilter with the increasingly consensual common sense view that British industry needed more competition rather than protected markets in order to become more efficient. 61 The failure of these ambitions for closer economic links with the Commonwealth was evident soon after Labour took office. After the Commonwealth Trade Ministers conference of 1965 it was clear to all who looked that, as Wilson later put it: there was virtually no willingness to improve intra-Commonwealth trading arrangements. The following year he told the Commonwealth Secretary-General of a more a general disillusion: The Commonwealth showed little disposition to help Britain or to play a constructive part, for example, at the UN. 62 Part of the problem was the souring of relations by political issuesmost importantly, Rhodesia. But the economic obstacles were also immense. As noted above, intra-Commonwealth trade had been declining from its post-war peak since the early 1950s. This was not largely the result of what Wilson called Conservative neglect, except in the sense that it followed from the general Conservative encouragement of trade liberalization. This dismantling of the discriminatory trade rules of the 1930s and 1940s allowed market forces to exert themselves, and the resulting trade pattern reflected the new dynamics of international trade emerging in the 1950s and 1960s. Britains historic nineteenth-century role as overwhelmingly an importer of food and raw materials was shifting as manufactured goods became increas- ingly dominant in imports as well as exports, aided by support for domestic agriculture (Table 1). This was a key part of the golden age of capitalism, as the major Western European and North American economies increasingly swapped manufactures for manufactures as the staple of their trade. In this process, the Commonwealth outside Britain, consisting 61 PRO, PREM 13/182, Commonwealth Trade and Aid, 1 April 1967. 62 Wilson, Labour Government, 117; Miller, Survey, 293, 300; PRO, PREM 13/1367, Note of Meeting of PM with Secretary General of Commonwealth, 5 April 1967. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 217 largely of rich but small or large but poor countries, was increasingly marginal to Britain, and they themselves were also enthusiastically developing trade links with non-Commonwealth countries. Most Labour policy makers were reluctant to accept this trend. In part, this related to a hostility to the trade liberalization, which was seen as allowing this fragmentation of the Commonwealth. Such views were most consistently aired by Balogh, long an advocate of retaining discriminatory rules to encourage Commonwealth trade. 63 But even those with more liberal economic views tended to believe that it was Tory mis-management between 1951 and 1964 which was weakening Commonwealth trading links, rather than this reflecting new patterns of trade growth. A more sophisticated view recognized the growth of intra-industry (and, by extension, largely non-Commonwealth) trade, but argued that this was less advantageous than the Commonwealth pattern of swapping manufactures for food and rawmaterials. In this view, swapping Renault Dauphines for Morris Minors was less beneficial than swapping cars for raw materials. 64 Even if one ignored the rising appetite of British consumers for sophisticated imported manufactures made by other rich countries, the obvious problem of the Commonwealth was that it con- tainedtoo fewof the richof the worldto forma major expanding market for the products of the poor. The degree of commonality of interest was limited and declining. The pro-Commonwealth attitudes of Labour around 1964 were in part a reflection of Labours accurate perception that the Attlee government had effectively encouraged Commonwealth trade, and that this had been to Britains immediate advantage. Disillusion swiftly followed from Labour 63 T. Balogh, The Dollar Crisis, Causes and Cure (Oxford, 1949); Balogh Papers: PRO, CAB 147/5662, Import Policy, 19647. 64 P. Streeten and H. Corbet (eds), Commonwealth Policy in a Global Context (London, 1973). Table 1 Composition of British Trade, 19469 to 19609 (percentages of total imports) Period Manufactures Primary products 19469 17.2 82.8 19509 23.0 77.0 19609 40.8 58.0 Source: R. Rowthorn and J. Wells, De-Industrialization and Foreign Trade (Cambridge, 1987), 173. 218 J I M TOML I NS ON bringing a 1951 approach to bear on a situation which fourteen years had radically changed. 65 But, more specifically, the pro-Commonwealth attitude was reinforced by Labours hostility to the first Conservative application to join the EEC in 1961. The likely implications of this policy for links with the Commonwealth provided an easily wielded stick for Labour to beat the Tories withduringthe latters last years ingovernment. 66 Labour presented itself as the defender of Commonwealth interests against Tory betrayal. Yet such a stance became less politically attractive as relations with much of the Commonwealth cooled after 1964, and simultaneously Commonwealth countries became less vociferous in their concerns about Britains possible entry. Whereas the Commonwealth had been portrayed as a key obstacle to EECmembership in 1961, by 19667 Labour was willing to treat the question as one of a limited number (New Zealand dairy products, tropical produce) of negotiable problems. 67 Despite this eventual downgrading of the Commonwealth, it is important to emphasize that it was not just nostalgia for the 1940s that fuelled Labours initial Common- wealth enthusiasm. Committed progressive internationalists such as Seers, Streeten, and Lipton regarded the Commonwealth as the best mechanism for Britain to fulfil its aims of tackling world poverty, and were bitterly disappointed by the failure to use it in this way. 68 Economic Policy and the Empire Because of the prevalence of teleological accounts of post-war Britain, in which the country was inevitably led fighting and screaming into the EEC as the only rational place to go, it is important to be clear why an alter- native, Commonwealth path, though seriously considered in the 1960s, was not viable. First must be the issue of trade. Douglas Jay and others tried to resurrect the Edwardian cheap loaf argument in the 1960s, but this no longer had much resonance. Far less working-class income was now spent on food, and cheap refrigerators were now more politically important than cheap bread. 69 Unlike food, manufactured goods were bought mainly from countries at similar levels of income, hence Britains growing trade with 65 Miller, Survey, 293. 66 For Tory attempts to revive Commonwealth links after failure of the application for Common Market entry in 1963, see PRO, T312/706, A. Douglas-Home to Commonwealth Secretary-General, 31 January 1964; PRO, T312/1114, Proposals for Strengthening Economic, Commercial and Cultural Links with the Commonwealth, 2 February 1964. 67 A. May (ed.), Britain, the Commonwealth and Europe: The Commonwealth and Britains Applications to Join the European Communities (London, 2001); C. Schenk, Sterling, International MonetaryReformandBritains Applications toJointheEuropeanCommunities, Contemporary European History, 11 (2002), 34569. 68 M. Lipton, Labour andBritishEconomic Policy Towards Asia, inC. Jackson(ed.), Labour in Asia (London, 1973), 415. 69 Tomlinson, Politics of Decline, 3, 512. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 219 Western Europe that accompanied the commodity composition changes shown in Table 1. But the change in trade patterns was not just about the changing composition of British demand. Commonwealth countries were recog- nizing the limited scope for expansion of Britain, and Canada was developing her trade with the USA, Australia, with Japan. Only New Zealand found it hard to find alternative customers for her lamb and dairy products. For the poor countries of the Commonwealth the most obvious problem was that Britain (along with other developed countries) was increasingly unwilling to import the narrow range of relatively un- sophisticated manufactured goods that they wanted to exportmost obviously in the case of textiles. In addition, foreign exchange constraints cut the possibility of providing a major expanding market for British exports. In the 1960s Indias trade links declined not just proportionately, but in absolute terms. 70 These trade patterns were not immutable. But the key issue for the more rapid development of markets such as India was inward investment (providing both capital for development and foreign exchange), and here the problem was that Britain was simply not a large enough economy to provide resources on the scale that would have made a large difference to an economy like India. British capital did flow into India (though more went to Australia and South Africa), but it was concentrated in a few sectors, while India, with some success, played the USA off against the USSR to obtain external investment funds on a scale Britain could not match. As already noted, the addition of government aid to private investment was quantitatively significant from a British point of view, but relatively trivial for the Indian economy. 71 While trade and investment were the key components of imperial economic relations, the attenuation of migration also symbolized the limited common interests of much of the Commonwealth. While still exporting over 100,000 people a year in the 1950s and 1960s, largely to the White Commonwealth, tight controls were imposed on (Black and Asian) immigration by the Immigration Acts of 1962 and 1968, though within this regime Britain continued to denude poor Commonwealth countries of significant numbers of skilled professionals. 72 70 M. Lipton and J. Firn, The Erosion of a Relationship: India and Britain since 1960 (London, 1975), appendix table 2.3. For the changing relations with other parts of the Commonwealth, see J. B. D. Miller, Britainand the Old Dominions (London, 1966); Y. Bangura, Britainand Common- wealth Africa: the Politics of Economic Relations (Manchester, 1983). 71 Lipton and Firn, Erosion of a Relationship, 11015. 72 Labour Party Archives, Study Group on Immigration, June 1969April 1971. For the end of mass emigration from Britain, see S. Constantine, Waving Goodbye? Australia, Assisted Passages and the Empire and Commonwealth Settlement Acts, 194572, Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History 26 (1998), 17695. 220 J I M TOML I NS ON The declining economic links with the Commonwealth were then the result of a wide array of forces, both metropolitan and centrifugal. How far was this decline a result of British policy? The key policy decision here did not relate directly to the Empire, but was one which led Britain, albeit slowly and unevenly, down the road to international economic liberal- ization. Once the effects of this were felt, it was evident that the close ties of the 1940s were highly contingent, and that, above all else, the effect of rising incomes would be an insatiable demand for manufactures that the Commonwealth could not satisfy. In the new politics of the 1950s and 1960s, satisfying the demand for consumer prosperity became politically imperative, and this condemned the Commonwealth link to growing in- significance. Feinsteins identification of a paradox, the coupling of the decline of the Empire with unprecedented British prosperity, cannot be faulted. But in this paper I have tried to suggest that the Empire did matter to British economic policy in the 1950s and 1960s, both because of its links to the declinist discourse and because (for a while at least) an alternative, Commonwealth, path to the economic future provided a key part of the attempt to modernize the British economy in the 1960s. This latter needs to be rescued from the condescension of posterity if we are to understand some of the tensions in economic policy in post-war Britain. T HE DE CL I NE OF T HE B RI T I S H E MP I RE AND E CONOMY 221