A STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFALL-A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA

LALA LAJPATRAI COLLEGE OF COMMERCE AND ECONOMICS MAHALAXMI MUMBAI-400034

SUBMITTED BY: POOJA J. CHHEDA T.Y.B.M.S. A SEMESTER 6th

PROJECT GUIDE: PROF. VINAY PANDIT

Year of Submission: 2011-2012

CERTIFICATE

THIS IS TO CERTIFY THAT MS. POOJA J. CHHEDA CURRENTLY STUDYING IN TYBMS A (6th SEMESTER) HAS COMPLETED THIS PROJECT ON A STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFALL-A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA IN THE ACADEMIC YEAR 2011-2012. THIS PROJECT SUBMITTED IS TRYE AND ORIGINAL TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE.

PROJECT GUIDE (PROF. VINAY PANDIT)

BMS CO-ORDINATOR (PROF. ARUN POOJARI)

EXTERNAL CO-ORDINATOR

PRINCIPAL

(PROF. NEELAM ARORA)

DECLARATION

I, POOJA J. CHHEDA, STUDENT OF LALA LAJPATRAI COLLEGE CURRENTLY STUDYING IN TYBMS A HEREBY DECLARE THAT I HAVE COMPLETED MY PROJECT TITLED A STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFALL-A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA IN THE ACADEMIC YEAR 2011-2012. THE INFORMATION HERE IS TRUE AND ORIGINAL TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE.

POOJA J. CHHEDA TYBMS A

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I, POOJA J. CHHEDA, SINCERELY THANK TO ALL THOSE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN GIVING ME ANY KIND OF ASSISTANCE IN THE MAKING OF THIS PROJECT. I EXPRESS MY GRATITUDE TO PROF. VINAY PANDIT, WHO HAS THROUGH HIS VAST EXPERIENCEAND KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUIDE ME, BOTH ABLY AND SUCCESSFULLY TOWARDS THE COMPETITION OF THE PROJECT. I EXPRESS MY GRATITUDE TO LALA LAJPATRAI COLLEGE. I WOULD HEREBY,MAKE MOST OF THE OPPORTUNITY BY EXPRESSING MY SINCEREST THANKS TO ALL MY FACULTIES WHOSE TEACHINGS GAVE ME CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING AND CLARITY OF COMPREHENSION, WHICH ULTIMATELY MADE MY JOB EASIER. CREDIT ALSO GOES TO MY FRIENDS WHOSE ENCOURAGEMENT HELPED ME IN COMPLETION OF THIS PROJECT. THEIR CONTINUOUS SUPPORT HAS GIVEN ME THE STRENGHT AND CONFIDENCE TO COMPLETE THE PROJECT WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY.

(POOJA J. CHHEDA)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. This phenomenon is being faced by almost all countries and not only India. Climate is gradually changing due to the dangerous human activities which are resulting into greenhouse gases into the atmosphere which are warming the earths climate and the results are changes in the weather and rain pattern. There has been a drastic change in the climate which is affecting the economic, social and other aspects of our country. In this research topic we are trying to ascertain the relationship between the climate change and rainfall pattern. This study is trying to study the factors triggering the changes in the climate and the possible impact it is having on the rainfall of the country. There has been a drastic change in the pattern of rainfall from 1980 to 2009 and still these changes prevail and are only growing with time. Due to this impact of climate change on the rainfall India has faced a number of problems be it droughts, floods and cyclones. The memory of the 26th July deluge is fresh in our minds. This was just a small example of the changing climate. We are facing severe issues in the field of agriculture which id the backbone of our economy. Health issues related to changing climate is on rise.

So today India although being in a dynamic position in the world economy and its moving towards growth rapidly, the issues related to the changing climate and lack of attention on them can play a very significant drawback in its path to success.

INDEX

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION & RESEARCH

INTRODUCTION

The rainfall is an important parameter for the well-being of around 1000 million people of the Indian regions. However, certain extreme rainfall events occurring in different seasons cause disastrous situation over some parts. In view of this, we have scanned the daily rainfall data of 165 stations across the region to find out their extreme point rainfall events (highest 24-hour rainfall) and examined whether there is any change in the number and the intensity of such events during past four decades. The study reveals that their number has gone up considerably after 1960 with an alarming rise in the intensity thereafter. It is further noticed that the major cities, hill stations and the islands are affected with a heavy downpour. The conspicuous feature is that from the mid-90s, the regional as well as the world records were established over this part of the globe on different time scales. It is conjectured that these events may be associated with the global and the regional warming under the climate change scenario. In the event of their continuation, there would be severe impact on societal and environmental issues warranting

appropriate precautionary measures in near future to safeguard the interest of the vast population of this region.

OBJECTIVES

To study the linkage between climate change and level of rainfall. To assess the factors causing climate change. To study the issues related to changing rainfall pattern.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of the study is mainly to understand the impact of climate change on rainfall. The scope of the study is restricted only in India.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The first and foremost step in research process consists of problem identification. Once the problem is defined, the next is that the research design becomes easier. The research design is the basic framework, which provides guidelines for the rest of the research process. The research design specifies the method s of data collection and analysis.

The methodology of the study is classified into the following steps: Collection of primary data. Collection of secondary data. Sampling procedure.

Collection of primary data: It is collected by communication and observation. But however in this case data is not collected through this method.

Collection of secondary data: Internal and external secondary data is collected for the purpose of study. No internal secondary data is used only external secondary data is used. This external secondary data is collected from publications, government records and internet.

FORMATION OF PROBLEM

As we know that water is very essential for the sheer existence of humans or for the existence of any living organism. Most of the human requirements are met through the rainwater. Thus, a good monsoon is vital for all living world. However, in the recent years we have faced the grave threat of depletion of many water sources (rivers, lakes, ponds). Along with this there is there is sudden increase in rainfall in certain parts of the globe all this is the result of the change in the pattern of the climate of earth. There have been drastic changes in the climate that has led to significant change in the weather patterns and rainfall which are having adverse effects on the living world. This phenomenon of changing climate and rainfall is a grave problem before us and endangering our present and future.

RESEARCH LIMITATIONS

Following are the limitations of the present study: The study is limited only within India. The study is based only on the information available from the 165 stations well spread across the Indian region of at least 50 years up to 1980 are considered (Source : Climatological Tables of Observatories in India: 1951-1980, IMD, 1999). Only the cases with the minimum rainfall of 10 cm/day are taken into account to give weightage to the high rainfall values.

CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF LITERATURE

One of the most signicant consequences of global warming would be an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events brought about by increased atmospheric moisture levels, thunderstorm activity, and/or large-scale storm activity. As noted in the latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Houghton et al., 2001), climate models generally predict an increase in extreme precipitation events given a build-up of greenhouse gases, and in many parts of the world an increase in these large precipitation events has been observed during the period of historical records. The issue of extreme events remains a focus of the numerical modelling community, with a relatively steady stream of results all showing an increase in large precipitation events given elevated greenhouse gas concentrations (e.g. Kharin and Zwiers, 2000; Meehl et al., 2000; Durman et al., 2001; Yonetani and Gordon, 2001; Wilby and Wigley, 2002; Huntingford et al., 2003; Watterson and Dix, 2003). Durman et al. (2001) warned tha models may over predict the future probability of extreme events; but, even when the predictions are adjusted to t empirical data better, they still show a substantial rise in the probability of large precipitation events throughout the year. Given the ongoing interest in the modelling community, empirical scientists continue to assemble databases and analyse them for trends in extreme precipitation events. Limiting the literature to 2000 onward, researchers have found an increasing trend for extreme precipitation events in the USA and Australia (Easterling et al., 2000; Haylock and Nicholls, 2000; Groisman et al., 2001; Kunkel, 2003), western New Zealand (Salinger and Grifths, 2001), French Polynesia, Fiji, and other parts of the South Pacic (Manton et al., 2001; Grifth et al., 2003), Italy and other areas in the Mediterran ean basin (Brunetti et al., 2001a,b; Alpert et al., 2002), the UK in winter (Osborn et al., 2000), and in South Africa (Fauchereau et al., 2003). Other scientists reported no trend in extreme rainfall events in Canada (Zhang et al., 2001; Kunkel, 2003) or the Tuscany region of Italy (Crisci, 2002). Although the evidence for increasing trends appears in most regions, statistically signicant decreasing trends in extreme rainfall events have been found in western Australia

(Haylock and Nicholls, 2000), Southeast Asia and parts of the central Pacic (Manton et al., 2001; Grifths et al., 2003), northern and eastern New Zealand (Salinger and Grifths, 2001), the UK in summer (Osborn et al., 2000), and in Poland (Bielec, 2001). In this investigation, we turn our attention to India, where a large agricultural economy increases the importance of any changes in precipitation distributions. It is noteworthy that several numerical modelling studies (Bhaskaran et al., 1995; May, 2002) have found that a substantial rise in moisture transport into India in a doubled CO2 world leads to an increase in extreme precipitation events in the area. On the empirical side, Soman et al. (1988) analysed annual extreme rainfall for stations in the Kerala state of southern India and generally found decreasing trends, particularly for stations in hilly terrain. Later, Rakhecha and Soman (1994) analysed extreme events of from 1 to 3 days duration for 316 stations across India for the period 1901 to 1980. Generally, they found that trends in these events were not statistically signicant at most stations. However, Rakhecha and Soman (1994: 227) reported that the extreme rainfall series at stations over the west coast north of 12-degrees-N and at some stations to the east of the Western Ghats over the central parts of the Peninsula showed a signicant increasing trend at 95% level of condence. Stations over the southern Peninsula and over the lower Ganga valley have been found to exhibit a decreasing trend at the same level of signicance. Given the ongoing interest and importance of possible trends in extreme precipitation events, in this paper we assemble a database of daily precipitation totals for stations throughout India, employ a variety of denitions of extreme events, examine all records for trends, and attempt to explain the variations and trends with external variables, including sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), regional air temperatures, indices of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), the Pacic decadal oscillation (PDO), and the atmospheric concentration of CO2. Monthly temperature data used in the present All-India and homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), North Central (NC), Northeast (NE), West Coast (WC), East Coast (EC) and Interior Peninsula (IP) temperature series, over a network of 121 stations, are the same as those used by Pant and Rupa Kumar (1997) for the period 1901-1990, which were originally sourced from the monthly weather records of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The data have then been updated for the period 1991-2003 from the Indian Daily Weather Reports (IDWRs) published by the IMD. In order to project a more realistic temperature climatology onto the limited data used , climatological normal of monthly mean maximum and

minimum temperatures for the period 1951- 80 for 388 well-spread stations have been taken from IMD (1999). To prepare spatially well- representative means of temperatures for the abovementioned homogeneous regions, the following procedure has been adopted. The available station temperature data have been converted to monthly anomaly time series for the period 1901-2003, with reference to the respective station normal values. The station wise monthly temperature anomaly time series are first objectively interpolated onto a 0.5 x 0.5 grid for the entire period of 1901-2003. Then, the climatological normal (1951-80) of temperature at 388 stations have been interpolated onto the same grid, resulting in high-resolution grid point temperature climatology for the country. The gridded monthly anomaly values are then added to the gridded climatology based on 388 stations, finally producing a long-term gridded data set of actual temperatures for India for the period 1901-2003. All-India and regional monthly temperature series are computed by simple averages of the constituent grid point data of the respective regions. For more details see Kothawale and Rupakumar (2004). The regions have been delineated based on their distinct climatic and geographical settings. About 60-90% of the annual rainfall over India is received during the southwest monsoon season (June to September), which is vital for the economy of the country. Inter-annual variation of seasonal and annual rainfall is a subject for more serious research work in India. However, information about the long term trends of rainfall is also important. Previous studies have addressed the issue of changes in the mean rainfall. For example, Guhathakurta and Rajeevan (2006) have shown that there is no long term trend in the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, but there are significant regional variations. However, changes in extreme precipitation are also equally important to investigate. Impact of climate changes are felt most strongly through changes in climate extremes. Any positive or increasing trend in the extreme rainfall events is also a serious concern. The recent extreme heavy rainfall event occurred over Mumbai on 26th July 2005 prompts us to think whether there is any significant trend in extreme rainfall events over different parts of India. One of the most significant

consequences of global warming due to increase in greenhouse gases would be an increase in magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. These increased extreme precipitation events can be attributed to increase in moisture levels, thunderstorm activities and large scale storm activity. In the global warming scenario, climate models generally predict an increase in large precipitation events (Houghton et al 2001). The numerical modelling community and data

analysts have shown interest on the issue of extreme events occurring around the world. The recent studies have shown that there is an increasing trend of extreme precipitation events in USA and Australia (Easterling et al. 2000, Haylock and Nicholls 2000, Groisman et al. 2001; Kunkel 2003), western New Zealand(Salinger and Griffiths 2001), the UK in winter (Osborn et al. 2000), and south Africa (Fauchereau et al. 2003). Extreme rainfall events in Canada show no trend (Zhang 3 et al. 2001; Kunkel 2003). Significantly decreasing trends in extreme rainfall events have been found in Western Australia (Haylock and Nicholls, 2000), south-east Asia and parts of central Pacific (Griffiths et al. 2003), northern and eastern New Zealand (Salinger and Griffiths 2001), UK in summer (Osborn et al, 2000). Haylock et al. (2006) have recently addressed the trends in total and extreme rainfall over South America and their links with sea surface temperatures. In India also, some studies have addressed this important issue. Rupa Kumar et al. (1992) examined the trends in the total precipitation during 1871-1984 and found increasing trends in the precipitation amounts all along the west coast and northwest India. Their study also suggested a decreasing trend in the overall precipitation in the eastern Madhya Pradesh. The study of Chhabra et al. (1997) indicates a decrease in the precipitation in hilly stations and an increase in the precipitation in the urbanized/industrialized cities. Singh and Sontakke (2002) studied the fluctuations of precipitation amounts during 1829-1999 for the IndoGangetic Region. Their study indicates a significant trend from 1939 over the central part, and a significant decreasing trend over eastern parts of the country. Soman et al (1988) analysed annual extreme rainfall for the stations in Kerala state and found that stations in hilly terrain show a decreasing trends. Guhathakurta and Rajeevan (2006) analysed rainfall trends over 36 meteorological sub-divisions using a fixed rain-gauge network of over 1460 stations. Their study revealed significant decreasing trends in rainfall over 3 meteorological sub-divisions (Jharkhand, Chattishgarh and Kerala) during the southwest monsoon season (June to September). However, there are only a couple of studies on addressing the changes in extreme precipitation events. Sinha Ray and Srivastava (2000) examined the trend in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events in India. They analysed rainfall data of 151 stations and considered a threshold of 7 cm and above. Sen Roy and Balling (2004) analysed the trends in the patterns of extreme precipitation events from 1910 to 2000 and showed an increasing trend over most of western India including Deccan Plateau and a decreasing to a neutral trend over the eastern half of the country except the northeastern corner. Sen Roy and Balling (2006) analysed the spatial patterns

of trends in the frequency and intensity of precipitation over India and 4concluded that most extreme events have become more frequent, particularly in the western half of the country. Francis and Gadgil (2006) using 37 years of rainfall data examined intense rainfall events over the west coast of India. The probability of occurrence of intense rainfall events is high from midJune to mid-August. They have analysed the synoptic features associated with these intense rainfall events. Klein Tank (2006) examined the changes in daily temperatures and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia. For this study, they have used daily data of 1961-2000. However, no robust signal of changes in precipitation extremes is observed over the region. The only index with a significant (5% level) positive trend is the precipitation amount on very wet days. Also, the increase in the contribution of very wet days to the total amounts between 1961 and 2000 is significant at 5% level, implying disproportionate changes of the precipitation extremes. Alexander et al (2005) examined global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation using a suite of climate change indices derived from daily data. They have considered the data of 1951-2003 for the analysis. They have gridded the seasonal and annual climate change indices for the analysis. Their results indicate a general tendency towards wetter conditions throughout the 20th century. There are many indices for examining the extreme rainfall events (Peterson et al. 2001). The earlier studies on extreme rainfall over India examined only a couple of such indices. The joint working group on climate change detection of World Meteorological Organisation (WMOCCL) and the research program on Climate Variability and Prediction CLIVAR (Peterson et al., 2001) recommended 15 indices on extreme rainfall. In this study, we have considered all these 15 indices and examined the long term changes associated with these indices using 100 years of data. About half of the indices considered are expressions of anomalies relative to the local climatology in the standard-normal period 1961-90 enabling comparisons between stations in different countries and regions. We have considered daily data of longer period (1901-2000) for the present analysis. The present study also deals with analysis for the extreme rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as well as annual rainfall over India. However, in this report, only the results of the analysis for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) are discussed, which are found similar with the annual rainfall data also.

CHAPTER 3: CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDIA

3.1.OVERVIEW
One word or phrase that the entire world is talking about every day is Climate Change or Global Warming. It is widely reported in television medium and newspapers about the negative impacts of climate change. Many countries in the way of economic development have given least importance to the environment surrounding them thereby causing ecological imbalance which has resulted in the change of weather patterns over a period of time. Climate change also has the exact meaning. It is defined as the change in weather patterns over a period of time wherein the time can be in number of years to decades and million years. In general, climate change is described with respect to a particular region. Sometimes, it can be referred by taking the entire Earth into account. In a country like India which is fast growing into a global economy, climate change is a major talking point and issue to be dealt with. The causes for climate change include both natural and human influences.

In India, climate change has caused tremendous changes in the weather patterns across different parts of the country. Extended summers, unpredicted rainfall are all some of the effects of climate change. If climate change is not seriously considered, the consequences will be irreparable. Climate change will affect the environment, economy and social welfare of a particular region or country. Some of the research work going on regarding climate change and its impact in India has revealed shocking results. The annual monsoon season will lead to severe droughts and floods in various parts of India. As India depends on monsoon rains for agriculture, forestry and fisheries it has a strong influence for the water based ecosystems.

One of the debatable topics in India is the concept of development and climate change. Does

development take place at the cost of impacting the environment thereby aiding climate change?

So, India is on the fast track of becoming a global economy and on the other hand industrialization and urbanization leads to more greenhouse gas emissions which in turn cause climate change mainly impacting the monsoon rains.It is a known fact that global temperature levels will rise anywhere between 2 5 over the next century. A 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued statistics which show that temperatures in India will rise by 4 around 2080. Further, it states that the sea level would have risen transport which has fewer emissions. Awareness about the impacts of climate change has to be passed on to the common man who is not aware of what the impacts of half a degree increase in temperature would be like!!!By about 88centimetres around the beginning of 21st century. Climate change will also cause health problems which mainly come from water related diseases. India's climate is both diverse and changing. The south experiences tropical climes, through to more temperate conditions to the alpine regions of the north where elevated areas receive sustained winter snowfall. The Himalayas provide a barrier to the cold winds of continental Asia and helps the development of the monsoon during the rainy season (June-September) when over 70% of the annual precipitation in India falls (World Bank 2008). This results in a warm climate across most of India throughout the year, where temperatures can exceed 40 degrees, but also fall below freezing in the deserts of the north and Kashmir (Liggins 2008). Throughout the 21 century, India and other countries in south-eastern Asia are projected to experience warming above the global mean. India will also begin to experience greater seasonal variation in temperature, with more warming in the winter than summer (Christensen et. al. 2007). The longevity of heat-waves across India have extended in recent years, leading to warmer temperatures at night and hotter days this trend is set to continue (Cruz et. al. 2007). These heat-waves will lead to increased variability in summer monsoon precipitation, with drastic effects on the agricultural sector in India (Bhadwal 2003). Global temperatures have already increased by 0.7 degrees over the past century and are projected to further increase by a minimum of 1.8 degrees to a maximum of 4 degrees before the end of this century, depending on our ability to act quickly to combat climate change(Ananthapadmanabhan et. al. 2007). As surface temperatures increase, it is expected that

there will be an increase in severe precipitation events across the south Asian region. Indeed, predictions state that tropical cyclones will intensify by 10-20% in response to a 2-4 degree rise in sea temperatures (Knutson et. al. 2004).

3.2. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The earth's climate is dynamic and always changing through a natural cycle. What the world is more worried about is that the changes that are occurring today have been speeded up because of man's activities. These changes are being studied by scientists all over the world who are finding evidence from tree rings, pollen samples, ice cores, and sea sediments. The causes are divided into two categories i.e. natural causes and man-made causes.

Natural-causes
There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change. Some of the more prominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth's tilt, and comets and meteorites. Let's look at them in a little detail. Continental-drift You may have noticed something peculiar about South America and Africa on a map of the world - don't they seem to fit into each other like pieces in a jigsaw puzzle? About 200 million years ago they were joined together! Scientists believe that back then, the earth was not as we see it today, but the continents were all part of one large landmass. Proof of this comes from the similarity between plant and animal fossils and broad belts of rocks found on the eastern coastline of South America and western coastline of Africa, which are now widely separated by the Atlantic Ocean. The discovery of fossils of tropical plants (in the form of coal deposits) in Antarctica has led to the conclusion that this frozen land at some time in the past, must have been situated closer to the equator, where the climate was tropical, with swamps and plenty of lush vegetation.

The continents that we are familiar with today were formed when the landmass began gradually drifting apart, millions of years back. This drift also had an impact on the climate because it changed the physical features of the landmass, their position and the position of water bodies. The separation of the landmasses changed the flow of ocean currents and winds, which affected the climate. This drift of the continents continues even today; the Himalayan range is rising by about 1 mm (millimetre) every year because the Indian land mass is moving towards the Asian land mass, slowly but steadily.

Volcanoes When a volcano erupts it throws out large volumes of sulphur dioxide (SO2), water vapour, dust, and ash into the atmosphere. Although the volcanic activity may last only a few days, yet the large volumes of gases and ash can influence climatic patterns for years. Millions of tonnes of sulphur dioxide gas can reach the upper levels of the atmosphere (called the stratosphere) from a major eruption. The gases and dust particles partially block the incoming rays of the sun, leading to cooling. Sulphur dioxide combines with water to form tiny droplets of sulphuric acid. These droplets are so small that many of them can stay aloft for several years. They are efficient reflectors of sunlight, and screen the ground from some of the energy that it would ordinarily receive from the sun. Winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, called the stratosphere, carry the aerosols rapidly around the globe in either an easterly or westerly direction. Movement of aerosols north and south is always much slower.

The earth's tilt Earth makes one full orbit around the sun each year. It is tilted at an angle of 23.5 to the perpendicular plane of its orbital path. For one half of the year when it is summer, the northern hemisphere tilts towards the sun. In the other half when it is winter, the earth is tilted away from the sun. If there was no tilt we would not have experienced seasons. Changes in the tilt of the earth can affect the severity of the seasons - more tilt means warmer summers and colder winters; less tilt means cooler summers and milder winters.

The Earth's orbit is somewhat elliptical, which means that the distance between the earth and the Sun varies over the course of a year. We usually think of the earth's axis as being fixed, after all,

it always seems to point toward Polaris (also known as the Pole Star and the North Star). Actually, it is not quite constant: the axis does move, at the rate of a little more than a halfdegree each century. So Polaris has not always been, and will not always be, the star pointing to the North. When the pyramids were built, around 2500 BC, the pole was near the star Thuban (Alpha Draconis). This gradual change in the direction of the earth's axis, called precession is responsible for changes in the climate.

Ocean

currents

The oceans are a major component of the climate system. They cover about 71% of the Earth and absorb about twice as much of the sun's radiation as the atmosphere or the land surface. Ocean currents move vast amounts of heat across the planet - roughly the same amount as the atmosphere does. But the oceans are surrounded by land masses, so heat transport through the water is through channels. Winds push horizontally against the sea surface and drive ocean current patterns. Certain parts of the world are influenced by ocean currents more than others. The coast of Peru and other adjoining regions are directly influenced by the Humboldt current that flows along the coastline of Peru. The El Nio event in the Pacific Ocean can affect climatic conditions all over the world. Another region that is strongly influenced by ocean currents is the North Atlantic. If we compare places at the same latitude in Europe and North America the effect is immediately obvious. Take a closer look at this example - some parts of coastal Norway have an average temperature of -2C in January and 14C in July; while places at the same latitude on the Pacific coast of Alaska are far colder: -15C in January and only 10C in July. The warm current along the Norwegian coast keeps much of the Greenland-Norwegian Sea free of ice even in winter. The rest of the Arctic Ocean, even though it is much further south, remains frozen. Ocean currents have been known to change direction or slow down. Much of the heat that escapes from the oceans is in the form of water vapour, the most abundant greenhouse gas on Earth. Yet, water vapour also contributes to the formation of clouds, which shade the surface and have a net cooling effect.

Any or all of these phenomena can have an impact on the climate, as is believed to have happened at the end of the last Ice Age, about 14,000 years ago.

Human

causes

The Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw the large-scale use of fossil fuels for industrial activities. These industries created jobs and over the years, people moved from rural areas to the cities. This trend is continuing even today. More and more land that was covered with vegetation has been cleared to make way for houses. Natural resources are being used extensively for construction, industries, transport, and consumption. Consumerism (our increasing want for material things) has increased by leaps and bounds, creating mountains of waste. Also, our population has increased to an incredible extent.

All this has contributed to a rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas supply most of the energy needed to run vehicles generate electricity for industries, households, etc. The energy sector is responsible for about of the carbon dioxide emissions, 1/5 of the methane emissions and a large quantity of nitrous oxide. It also produces nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) which is not greenhouse gases but do have an influence on the chemical cycles in the atmosphere that produce or destroy greenhouse-gases.

Greenhouse

gases

and

their

sources

Carbon dioxide is undoubtedly, the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in land use pattern, deforestation, land clearing, agriculture, and other activities have all led to a rise in the emission of carbon dioxide.

Methane is another important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. About of all methane emissions are said to come from domesticated animals such as dairy cows, goats, pigs, buffaloes, camels, horses, and sheep. These animals produce methane during the cud-chewing process. Methane is also released from rice or paddy fields that are flooded during the sowing and maturing periods. When soil is covered with water it becomes anaerobic or lacking in oxygen. Under such conditions, methane-producing bacteria and other organisms decompose organic matter in the soil to form methane. Nearly 90% of the paddy-growing area in the world is found in Asia, as rice is the staple food there. China and India, between them, have 80-90% of the world's rice-growing areas.

Methane is also emitted from landfills and other waste dumps. If the waste is put into an incinerator or burnt in the open, carbon dioxide is emitted. Methane is also emitted during the process of oil drilling, coal mining and also from leaking gas pipelines (due to accidents and poor maintenance of sites).

A large amount of nitrous oxide emission has been attributed to fertilizer application. This in turn depends on the type of fertilizer that is used, how and when it is used and the methods of tilling that are followed. Contributions are also made by leguminous plants, such as beans and pulses that add nitrogen to the soil.

How

we

all

contribute

every

day

All of us in our daily lives contribute our bit to this change in the climate. Give these points a good, serious thought: - Electricity is the main source of power in urban areas. All our gadgets run on electricity generated mainly from thermal power plants. These thermal power plants are run on fossil fuels (mostly coal) and are responsible for the emission of huge amounts of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.

- Cars, buses, and trucks are the principal ways by which goods and people are transported in most of our cities. These are run mainly on petrol or diesel, both fossil fuels. - We generate large quantities of waste in the form of plastics that remain in the environment for many years and cause damage.

- We use a huge quantity of paper in our work at schools and in offices. Have we ever thought about the number of trees that we use in a day?

- Timber is used in large quantities for construction of houses, which means that large areas of forest have to be cut down.

- A growing population has meant more and more mouths to feed. Because the land area available for agriculture is limited (and in fact, is actually shrinking as a result of ecological degradation!), high-yielding varieties of crop are being grown to increase the agricultural output from a given area of land. However, such high-yielding varieties of crops require large quantities of fertilizers; and more fertilizer means more emissions of nitrous oxide, both from the field into which it is put and the fertilizer industry that makes it. Pollution also results from the run-off of fertilizer into water bodies.

CHAPTER 4: MAIN STUDY

4.1 OVERVIEW OF RELATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RAINFALL IN INDIA

India is fortunate to enjoy the heavy rainfall spells in all the seasons due to both tropical and extra-tropical weather systems. The summer or the southwest monsoon season (June-September) is the main rainy season contributing about 75-80 % of the annual rainfall. Although, the contributions from other seasons, viz. the winter (January-February), pre-monsoon (March-May) and the post or north-east monsoon (October-December) to all India rainfall are not very significant, they are quite important for the particular regions. Main weather systems which bring rainfall to the region are monsoon low pressure areas, depressions, thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, western disturbances etc. (Pant and Rupa Kumar, 1997). The typical orography of the region also influences the intensity and distribution of the rainfall. In view of the paramount importance of the rainfall from economic, societal and scientific points, extensive work has been carried out over the years on its various facets like trends, disaster

events, spatio-temporal variability, seasonal contributions etc. (e.g. Sinha Ray and De, 2003; Sen Roy and Balling, 2004; Francis and Gadgil, 2006; Guhathakurta and Rajeevan, 2008). Goswami et al. (2006) used grid point data at 100 km resolution (Rajeevan et al., 2006) and demonstrated a significant increasing trend in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme monsoon rain events in central India over the past 50 years. These instances are attributed to the warming global surface (Goswami et al., 2006) and the tropical Indian ocean (Ajayamohan and Rao, 2008). The information of the peak rainfalls intensities at the stations is instrumental for the planning of urban development, disaster management and for studying the environmental aspects pertaining to water runoffs in the vicinity of the stations. Therefore, present study is carried out using the station data. The domain is whole of Indian region and all the seasons are considered

4.2 Criterion for extreme point rainfall event

The rainfall of 10 cm/day may be an extreme for the northwest region, whereas it may not be a significant amount for the northeast region or along the west coast of India during summer monsoon. Even in summer monsoon season, west coast of India gets heavy rainfall spells in the first fortnight of June while the northern part of the country is devoid of the rainfall. Therefore for this study, the magnitude of extreme point rainfall event (EPRE) is not taken as a fixed threshold for all the stations but it is different for each station and varies according to the month. Considering the climatological data, the magnitude of the EPRE at the station is defined as its highest 24-hour rainfall reported in a particular month during the entire period of the data availability. Accordingly, it may increase for certain stations, if their previous EPRE are exceeded in the course of time. This definition is adopted in order to examine whether there was any change in the number and intensity of the EPRE in the recent decades and if so, which parts of the region are affected most. Total 165 stations well spread across the region with the data availability of at least 50

years up to 1980 are considered (Source : Climatological Tables of Observatories in India: 19511980, IMD, 1999). Only the cases with the minimum rainfall of 10 cm/day are taken into account to give weightage to the high rainfall values. The rainfall data after 1980 are compiled from different IMD publications.

The instances of EPRE at the stations are classified chronologically according to the decades. The high rainfall events occurred at the stations after 1980 are compared with those of the earlier period to assess whether the previous EPRE are exceeded in recent decades. Subsequently, the extreme rainfall events occurred on different time scales are also discussed in the paper. In order to compare the intensity of EPRE in different periods, three time slots are considered viz. (1) Period up to 1980 (2) 1981- 2000 and (3) 2001-2009. Accordingly, the outcome of comparative study is briefly presented below.

Period up to 1980
The conspicuous feature is that most of stations have reported their highest 24-hour rainfall during 1961-1980. These stations are well spread across whole of the Indian region i.e. they are located in almost all the meteorological subdivisions of the India. The magnitudes of the EPRE recorded at some selected stations, the dates of the occurrence of these events and the data lengths of the stations are shown in Table 1. The locations of the stations (with abbreviated names) which recorded very high rainfall events are depicted in Figure 1 and the meteorological sub-divisions of India are shown in Figure 2. Just one or two stations from each sub-division are tabulated for brevity. The bold digits in the Table 1 indicate that the rainfall was the highest for all the months (all time record) while others are for the specific months. In case, any station has registered the EPRE for more than one month, only a case with the maximum rainfall is taken into account. Some of the major cities, hill stations and islands which have reported their highest 24-hour rainfall during 1961-1980 are listed below. Cities : New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Panjim, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Ranchi, Raipur, Dehradun, Thiruvanthapuram, Jaipur, Jammu, Pune, Nagpur, Kochi, Kanpur, Agra, Gaya, Madurai, Aligarh, Indore, Ludhiana.

Hill stations: Cherrapunji, Dalhousie, Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Kodaikanal, Mount Abu, Mussoorie, Mahabaleshwar, Panchmarhi, Shimla, Udhagamandalam (Ooty). Islands: Amini Divi, Minicoy, Port Blair It is evident from the Table1 that the EPRE have occurred in all the seasons encompassing the entire region. A few significant cases of EPRE at stations in different locations are highlighted below. The highest 24-hour rainfall of India was reported on September 13, 1974 (98.55/cm) at Cherrapunji (Sohra), a hill station located in the NE India. Colaba observatory in Mumbai recorded 58 cm rainfall on July 5, 1974. Chennai (SE peninsula) received rainfall of 45 cm on November 25, 1976 as its highest ever recorded rainfall on a single day. Thiruvanathapuram (southwest peninsula) recorded 40 cm rainfall on October 18, 1964, as its all-time record in 140 years. Mahabaleshwar (northwest peninsula) reported 44 cm during 1961-1980 as its record highest for all the months. Mount Abu (northwest India) reported 56 cm rainfall on September 19, 1973. Motihari (northeast India) recorded 46 cm rainfall as its highest in 93 years. Dehra Dun (north India) recorded 49 cm rainfall on July 25, 1966 as the highest rainfall for 100 years. The annual mean rainfall of Phalodi, (northwest India) is about 26 cm, but on July 12, 1964, it reported 23 cm rainfall in just 24 hours. It is observed that out of 165 stations, 128 (77.6 %) reported their EPRE during the bi-decadal period 1961-1980. Further, 85 stations have recorded the rainfall 20 cm/day.

 Period: 1981-2000
High rainfall instances reported at some stations during 1981-2000 are shown in Tables 2. Bold digits indicate the rainfall 40 cm/day. Some notable instances are described below. Cherrapunji recorded 156 cm rainfall on June 16, 1995 crossing its previous all-time highest of 98.55 cm reported on September 13, 1974 (Table 1). It had also set a record for the northern hemisphere overtaking the earlier record held by Paishih (Taiwan) of 125 cm reported on September 10-11, 1963 (Randall et al., 2007). However, this Cherrapunji record was exceeded after ten years, as Isla Mujere (Mexico) got 163 cm rainfall on October 21-22, 2005 (http://wmo.asu.edu). Still, it remains as a record for the Indian sub-continent. Bhira, a station on the windward side of the Western Ghats (northwest peninsula) got 71 cm rainfall on July 24, 1989 as its all-time highest during the period data availability from 1932. The rainfall was associated with the passage of a depression moving towards northwest India. Beed in Marathwada, subdivision, reported its all-time highest rainfall (32 cm) on 1989 under the influence of the same depression mentioned above. Santacruz (Mumbai) received 40 cm rainfall on June 10, 1991 exceeding its previous highest rainfall of 38 cm reported on July 5, 1974. Jodhpur (NW India) recorded 29 cm rainfall on August 5, 1996. It is noteworthy that its annual mean rainfall is about 36 cm. Rainfall of 49 cm on July 7, 1991 at Silchar (NE region) has crossed its previous all -time highest (29 cm) recorded in 1893. Koida (SE peninsula) recorded 67 cm rainfall on June 17, 1996. July 24,

 Period: 2001 2009

EPRE for this period from 2001 to July 2009 are depicted in Table 3. A few typical cases are highlighted below. Amini Divi recorded 117 cm rainfall on May 6, 2004 and created a record for the north Indian Ocean. It was associated with a passage of a tropical cyclone. It is worthwhile to mention that this station recorded 184 cm rainfall during just three days viz. May 5-7, 2004. Mumbai (Santacruz) experienced exceptionally heavy rainfall of 94 cm on July 27, 2005 (Table 3). Some other nearby stations also reported very high rainfall (e.g. Vihar lake: 105 cm) and the city was hit miserably due to unprecedented deluge. It was mainly due to the cloud burst and intense thunderstorm activity embedded in the monsoon circulation (Vaidya and Kulkarni, 2007). The peculiarity of this event was that the activity was highly localized to the northern part of the city as Colaba, just 25 km south of Santacruz reported only 7 cm rainfall on the same day.

Ratnagiri, a coastal station about 230 km south of Mumbai recorded 64 cm rainfall on May 31, 2006 surpassing its previous all-time highest (31 cm) recorded on June 30, 1953. Mahabaleshwar reported its all-time highest 46 cm on 3 August 2004. However, it was also exceeded on 11 August 2008 with 49 cm rainfall. Veraval (Saurashtra and Kutch) reported 50 cm rainfall on 16 July 2009 surpassing its highest (36 cm) recorded in the previous decade i.e. on July 26, 1996 (Table 2).

4.3. Rainfall events exceeding 50 cm/day

Sixty nine stations which reported the rainfall 50 cm/day have been identified over the region for the period: 1875- 1990 (Dhar and Nandargi, 1998). Out of them, 45 cases have occurred up to

1960 (86 years) and 24 during 1961-90 (30 years). Afterwards, following stations (as per the data of the study) have joined this elite R50 club. Amini Divi, Koida, Malda, Kaleswaram, Motihari, Songadh, Ratnagiri, Poladpur (west coast), Vihar lake, Santacruz (and the stations around Mumbai which recorded very heavy rainfall on July 27, 2005), Veraval and Mangrol (Saurashtra and Kutch) recorded on 16 July 2009.

4.4. Surpassing of all India records

Mawsynram, a station (northeast India) recorded 98.96 cm rainfall on July 10, 1952. It was the record as the highest 24-hour rainfall over the India (Thapaliyal and Kulshrestha, 1992). During last 15 years, three stations viz. Cherrapunji, Amini Divi and Vihar Lake have crossed this record. It is further noticed that five of the top seven rain events have occurred after 1970 (Table 4), indicating the rise in the intensity of EPRE in the recent times.

4.5. High rainfall spells on different time scales

The cases of extreme rain events for 24 hours are described above. There are some instances of very high rainfall reported from 1995 on different time scales. They are described below.

Short duration record rainfall

On June 16, 1995, Cherrapunji recorded 42 cm rainfall in just one hour exceeding the world record of 30.5 cm held earlier jointly by Holt, MO and Kilauea sugar plantation (Randall et al,

2007). During June 15-16, 1995, same station reported 249 cm rainfall (Pai and Guhathakurta, 2007), crossing 48-hour world record of 247 cm of Aurere, La Reunion, occurred during January 8-10, 1958 (http://wmo.asu.edu).

Record rainfall over desert area

Extreme northwest region of India is a part of the Thar Desert. It received record rainfall of 55 cm during August 16-25, 2006 i.e. just in 10 days (Jayanthi et al, 2006). More than 100 persons lost their lives, many animals died and lot of destruction was reported to the agriculture sector due to the floods.

Un-seasonal heavy rainfall instances

Chennai reported 21 cm rainfall during the last week of February 2000. Getting more than 20 cm rainfall in the last week of February is an event of the century for the city (Asokan and Nair, 2000). However, it was a blessing to the city dwellers as these un-seasonal rains relieved them from acute scarcity of the water caused by deficient rainfall during the NE monsoon season.

Excess rainfall on the seasonal and annual scale over a semi-arid location

Pune city situated on the leeward side of the western ghats, falls under the semi-arid or the rainshadow zone with the mean annual rainfall about 72 cm as against about 250 cm on the windward side. During 2004-2007, it recorded more than 80 cm rainfall consecutively in four summer monsoons. It was significantly high as compared to the seasonal normal- 55 cm. In 2005 and 2006, the city reported 116 cm (134 cm) and 110 cm (127 cm) rainfall in the summer monsoon (calendar year) respectively crossing its earlier annual record 124 cm which was established in 1892.

Rainiest station in the world

Annual mean rainfall of Mawsynram is 1151 cm considering the data of past 66 years i.e. for the period: 1940-2005 (Pai and Guhathakurta, 2007). It is more than other two most rainy stations in the world viz. Waialeale, Hawaii, USA (1144 cm) and Cherrapunji (1115 cm).

4.6. Discussion of results

4.6.1. Rise in the number and intensity of ERPE in recent decades

The results presented in section 3 bring out that out 165 stations, the majority (77.6 %) have

registered their EPRE during 1961-1980. Thereafter, several stations have reported the rainfall events surpassing the intensity of their previous highest rainfall. Some records were established on different time scales varying from hourly to the annual scales with the most of them noticed from 1995. Table 5 shows 20 stations where the previous EPRE have been exceeded after 1980. Many stations have experienced an alarming rise (40-370 %) in their intensity. These stations are located in north, northeast, northwest, central India and along the coastal zones.

4.6.2 Possible cause of rise in EPRE and their intensity in recent decades
It is a well-established fact that the global average surface temperature has increased during last 150 years and eleven years of the recent time (1995-2006) were among the warmest years. The global land surface has warmed at the rate of 0.07 C per decade during the past century (Jones and Moberg, 2003). From the late 1950s, the rise is noticed in the lowest 8 km of the

atmosphere. The details are available in the third assessment report (Houghton et al., 2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The studies over the Indian region indicate that all India mean annual surface temperature has increased by 0.05o C per decade for the period 1901-2003 and the rise is steeper during last three decades i.e. at the rate of 0.22 C per decade (Kothawale and Rupa Kumar, 2005). Similarly, the tropospheric temperatures have also increased for last 3 decades with the rise of

0.3 C per decade from 1971 at 850 hPa level (Kothawale and Rupa Kumar, 2002). The sea surface temperature (SST) of the oceanic region around India has also gone up by 0.6o C in 100 years and by about 0.15 o C per decade from 1971 (Kothawale et al., 2008).7 The rise in SST causes more evaporation and the increase in the surface air temperature leads to deeper convection. Besides, the warming of upper levels enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere. As such, under this scenario, the weather systems like the thunderstorms, the depressions and the cyclonic storms etc. would have more potential for intense precipitation as compared to the cooler environment. Therefore, it is conjectured that the accelerated warming during last three decades and the warmest period of recent 11 years, could be the major cause for the increase in the extreme rainfall spells during past four decades with the sharp rise their intensity after the mid-1990s. Although, the climate models have certain uncertainties and the atmospheric processes are not well understood, it may be mentioned that some model projections show that current rise in incidence of hot summers is likely to continue in the northern hemisphere (e.g. Jones et al., 2008). During next two decades, warming about 0.1o-0.2o C per decade is expected to take place due to greenhouse gases emissions (Houghton et.al., 2001). The extremes in the temperature (Rupa Kumar et al., 2006; Soloman et al., 2007) and the intensity of heavy rainfall events (May, 2004) may increase in the future over the Indian region. In the light of these studies, under climate change scenario, it is quite likely that the steep rise in the instances of EPRE may continue in coming decade A study of 165 stations across the Indian region with a long data series, shows that majority of them have reported their highest 24-hour rainfall during 1961-1980 with an alarming rise in their intensity thereafter. Record rainfall events on different time scales (hourly to annual) have also

taken place in the recent decades. The instances of EPRE have mainly affected the regions on NW, NE, central India, the coastal zones and the hill stations. These events may be associated with the global and the regional warming signalling the effect of the climate change over the region. Therefore, if the trend of the global warming continues, the EPRE also may continue to occur in the future. They would pose serious problems in some parts due to their adverse impact on the socio-economic issues like the damage to life and the property. Such spells, especially at the hill stations would result in the environmental degradation due to soil erosion, river silting, landslides etc. In view of these points, it is imperative that proper care need be exercised in near future for the work of town planning, disasters management and the environmental protection for the sustainable development of the human beings over the Indian region.

CHAPTER 5: IMPACTS OF CHANGING CLIMATE AND RAINFALL PATTERN

 Droughts, Floods & Cyclones:

From the recent study it shows the number of districts, human and livestock (cattle) population, and cropped area affected by drought during the years 1998-1999 to 2000-01 in India. From the table it can be seen that Rajasthan, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are most severely affected states (based on various criteria). Historically also these states were among the most frequently affected areas in India. Andhra Pradesh is selected for analysis given that the state has initiated some innovative management practices in recent times to tackle the recurring problem of drought. However, the vulnerability of affected population in Andhra Pradesh is still considered high and hence it is considered useful to identify the potential impediments in the implementation of the programs. Studies also show damages due to floods in India across states over the period 1953-2000, and average area affected by floods across states in the past decade, respectively. From the data it is clear that Uttar Pradesh is the most severely affected region due to floods and is hence chosen for vulnerability analysis. The eastern states/districts in India are more adversely affected by the cyclonic storms than the western states/districts (Kumar and Tholkappian, 2005). Among the eastern states Orissa is most frequently affected by cyclonic storms and is chosen for vulnerability analysis. During the period 1877 to 1990 the frequency of severe storms, storms and depressions was highest in the districts of Puri, Cuttak and Balasore (Patnaik and Narayanan, 2005), indicating the vulnerability of Orissa to cyclonic storms. Moreover the super cyclone in late 1990s exposed many maladaptation practices (such as destruction of mangroves) that severely affected the people of Orissa and hence it may be helpful to analyze the post-super cyclone response strategies that the state and people have undertaken. Severe storms, floods and droughts since the eighties have served as reminders that climate change is a global problem. The most dramatic change has been in the temperature, with measurement records suggesting that warming by 0.3-0.6 C has already taken place since the 1860s. The last two decades of the 20th century were the warmest in this period.

Over the next hundred years, the earth's surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8

C which will be greater than that experienced over the last 10 000 years.

Climate changes have occurred in the past, but always gradually, over thousands of years, giving ecosystems time to adapt. The rapid change that is currently taking place will leave ecosystems vulnerable. The large quantities of water locked in the polar ice caps and glaciers will be released as a consequence of warming. This, together with an increase in the thermal expansion of the oceans, will make the global mean sea level rise by 9 cm to 88 cm. The river Ganga originates in the Himalayas, and is fed by several glaciers. The Gangotri is the longest of these, at 26 km, but there are hundreds of smaller ones, too. One of these, is the Dokriani Bamak which is 5 km long and has a permanent research station at its base. Scientists studying this glacier have found that it has been retreating at a rate of 20 m a year compared to about 16 m per year in the past. If the present trend continues, then over the next 25 years, the Ganga could initially swell in volume because of increased melting but then dry out as the water supply in the mountains runs low. This will endanger the lives of about 400 million people who live in the river's plains and depend upon it for their supply of water In India, climate change could represent additional pressure on ecological and socio-economic systems that are already under stress due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development. With its huge and growing population, a 7500-km long densely-populated and low-lying coastline, and an economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.Most countries in temperate and tropical Asia have already felt the impact of extreme climate events such as droughts and floods. The intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected to be higher in a warmer atmosphere, suggesting a decrease in return period for extreme precipitation events and the possibility of more frequent flash floods in parts of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh (Lal M, Meehl G A, and Arblaster J M. 2000). Increases in temperature and seasonal variability in precipitation are expected to result in more rapid recession of Himalayan glaciers. In fact, the Gangotri glacier is already retreating at a rate of 30 metres a year.

An increase in rainfall is simulated over the eastern region of India but the north-western deserts may see a small decrease in the absolute amount of rainfall.

Spatial distribution of changes in monsoon rainfall over Indian subcontinent as simulated by Hadley Centre's global and regional climate models at the time of doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

 AGRICULTURE
Agricultural productivity can be affected in two ways: one, directly, due to changes in temperature, precipitation or CO2 levels and two, indirectly, through changes in soil, distribution and frequency of infestation by pests, insects, diseases or weeds. Sixty five per cent of Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on natural factors such as rainfall. It is also restricted by a lack of complementary inputs and institutional support systems. In tropical Asia, although wheat crops are likely to be sensitive to an increase in maximum temperature, rice crops would be vulnerable to an increase in minimum temperature. The adverse impacts of likely water shortage on wheat productivity in India could be minimized to a certain extent under elevated CO2 levels; these impacts, however, would be largely maintained for rice crops, resulting in a net decline in rice yields. Acute water shortage conditions combined with thermal stress could adversely affect wheat and, more severely, rice productivity in India even under the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future. Sinha S K and Swaminathan M S (1991) estimate that a 2 C increase in mean air temperature could decrease rice yield by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Further, a 0.5 C increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat crop duration by seven days and reduce yield by 0.45 ton/hectare. An increase in winter temperature of 0.5 C would thereby translate into a 10% reduction in wheat production in the high yield states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Rao D G and Sinha S K (1994) in their crop-simulation study estimate that under a 2 carbon dioxide climate change scenario, the wheat yields could decrease by 28%-68% without considering the carbon dioxide fertilization effects The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5 C (Kumar K and Parikh J 1998). A rise in mean temperature of 2 C and a 7% increase in mean precipitation will reduce net revenues by 12.3% for the country as a whole. Agriculture in the coastal regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka is likely to be affected negatively. Small losses are also indicated for the major foodgrain-producing regions of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh (Sanghi A, Mendelsohn R and Dinar A 1998).

 FORESTS:
One-tenth of the world's known species of higher altitude plants and animals occur in the Himalayas. In addition, some countries in Asia are centres of origin for many crop and fruit-tree species; as such, they are important sources of genes for their wild relatives. In 1995, approximately 10% of known species in the Himalayas were listed as threatened, and the number of species on the verge of extinction has increased since then. As a consequence of global warming, the present distribution of species in high-elevation ecosystems is projected to shift to higher elevations, although the rates of vegetation change are expected to be slow and colonization success would be constrained by increased erosion and overland flows in the highly dissected and steep terrains of the Himalayan mountain range. Increased temperature and rainfall will probably increase the productivity of tropical forests, result in a migration of forest types to higher elevations and transform drier forest types to moister ones (Ravindranath N H and Sukumar R 1998). It is estimated that the decline in soil moisture caused by warmer temperatures will reduce teak productivity from 5.4 m3/ha to 5.07 m3/ha (Achanta A N and Kanetkar R 1996). The same study suggests that a decline in the productivity of moist deciduous forests may take place, from 1.8 m3/ha to 1.5 m3/ha

COASTAL AREAS
India's coastline is about 7500 km long and is densely populated as well as low-lying.

Tropical cyclones and storm surges are one of most critical factors affecting loss of human lives in India and Bangladesh. There is concern that global warming may affect tropical cyclone characteristics, including intensity, because sea-surface temperature (SST) plays an important role in determining whether tropical disturbances will form and intensify. Most of India's coastal regions are fertile and under paddy cultivation, which is sensitive to inundation and salinization. Coastal infrastructure, tourist activities and onshore oil exploration are also at risk. Variations in climatic patterns are expected to result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as cyclones. These will greatly affect the population in coastal areas and may cause devastation in low-income rural areas as exemplified by the cyclone that hit Orissa in 1999, killing about 10 000 people. A one-metre rise in sea level is expected to inundate about 1700 km2 of agricultural land in Orissa and West Bengal (IPCC, 1992) In the absence of protection, Asthana (1994) showed that a one metre rise in sea level will affect an area of 5763 km2 and put 7.1 million people at risk. 83% of all damages will be because of land loss, but the extent of vulnerability will also depend upon physical exposure and the level of economic activity in the region. TERI developed a district-level ranking of vulnerability to onemetre sea level rise by constructing a weighted index. The estimated economic costs of this rise range from Rs 2287 billion in the case of Mumbai to Rs 3.6 billion in the case of Balasore (Orissa). Vulnerability to one-metre sea level rise

 Health

As the climate changes, there is going to be an increasing impact on human health. Temperatures will rise and lead to an increasing frequency of heat waves, ultimately increasing incidences of illness and death in India. Food and water supplies will be affected and the rate of disease will escalate, predominantly affecting the poor and marginalised who are often forced to live 6in overcrowded conditions with limited access to water and sanitation. As coastal populations are further displaced by rising sea levels, migration will increase, which will perpetuate levels of disease and infection due to the unstable living conditions with limited sanitation facilities and access to clean water and food (McMichael et. al. 2004). Below are just some examples of the health implications that can be linked with climate change: Bacterial Infection: Rates of diarrhoeal, cholera and other bacterial diseases are set to rise as temperatures rise and water quality issues increase. Bacterial infection from contaminated water is expected to increase as heavy rainfall and rising temperatures lead to pollution of drinking and recreational waters. The occurrence of Salmonella and E. Coli, amongst other food poisoning bacteria, are further known to be associated with rises in ambient air temperature (Fleury et. al. 2006). Vector-borne Disease: With climate change, geographical ranges and survival of species bearing diseases will vary. Warmer, wetter climes, particularly during breeding season, could enable Malarial mosquitoes to spread their range and survive longer, leading to increased rates of dengue fever and schistosmiasis (Battacharya et. al. 2006). Respiratory Disease: The quality of air is likely to decrease as surface ozone concentrations begin to rise with increasing temperatures. This will lead to an increasing incidence of asthma and other cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (Liggins 2008). Under-nutrition: Rising temperatures and variable rainfall will ultimately lead to an increase in crop failures and therefore a decline in food security, especially for crop staples such as rice and wheat. Poorest regions will be the most affected and rates of under-nutrition will begin to increase (Cohen et. al. 2008)

CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION
Precisely at a time when India is confronted with development imperatives25, we will also be severely impacted by climate change. Like other developing countries, several sections of the

Indian populace will not be able to buffer themselves from impacts2,8 of global warming. With close economic ties to natural resources and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and forestry, India may face a major threat15, and require serious adaptive capacity to combat climate change. As a developing country, India can little afford the risks and economic backlashes that industrialized nations can. With 27.5% of the population still below the poverty line, reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is essential15. It is in Indias interest to ensure that the world moves towards a low carbon future. Many studies have underscored the nations vulnerability to climate change8. With changes in key climate variables, namely temperature, precipitation and humidity, crucial sectors like agriculture and rural development are likely to be affected in a major way. Impacts are already being seen in unprecedented heat waves, cyclones, floods, salinisation of the coastline and effects on agriculture, fisheries and health8. India is home to a third of the worlds poor, and climate change will hit this section of society the hardest. Set to be the most populous nation in the world by 2045, the economic, social and ecological price of climate change will be massive. The future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of Indias National Communications (NATCOM) in 2004 include25: Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the Ganges and Bramhaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes from meltwater Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular rivers, water and power supply Drop in wheat production by 4-5 million tones, with even a 1C rise in temperature Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and mangrove ecosystems Increased frequency and intensity of floods. Increased vulnerability of people in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country Studies indicate that over 50% of Indias forests are likely to experience shift in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products.

India stands to lose on too many counts to allow a climate-politics-as-usual scenario. Therefore, positive engagement with global climate negotiations at the next UNFCCC meeting in December 2009 is crucial8. Indias accelerating emissions

Although not an emitter historically, India currently has one of the fastest growing economies in

the world. With a government target of 8% GDP to achieve developmental priorities, a share of one sixth of the global population, and changing consumption patterns, Indias emissions are set to increase dramatically.

Growing at an almost breakneck pace, and guzzling coal, gas and oil in large quantities, we are today, the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases worldwide. Although our per-capita emissions are among the lowest in the world, our growth rates imply that the past is no predictor of the future. The most recent IPCC report suggests that India will experience the greatest increase in energy and greenhouse gas emissions in the world if it sustains a high annual economic growth rate. The International energy Agency predicts that India will become the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases by as early as 2015.

India imports large quantities of fossil fuels to meet its energy needs, and the burning of fossil fuels alone accounts for 83% of Indias carbon dioxide emissions. Nearly 70% of our electricity supply comes from coal.

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