HL-I Adequacy

Evaluation
(Interconnected System Reliability Analysis)

B. Bagen

Section Outline

Concepts
E i l tU
Equivalent
Unit
it A
Approach
h
Multi-Area Reliability
Factors Affecting System Resource
Adequacy

Concepts

S i 1
Station
Load
Station 2

A
S t A:
System
A
Same as the example
use LDC

Generation

Tie Line
Capacity:10 MW
FOR=0.01

Load

B
System B
Generation:
5x20 MW
FOR=0.05
Load:75 MW

Equivalent Unit Approach

Develop COPT for the assisted system (System A)

Develop COPT for the assisting system (System B)
Develop capacity assistance model
Develop equivalent assisting unit model
Develop tie line constraint equivalent assisting unit
model
Develop modified COPT for the assisted system
Calculate reliability indices by convolving the
modified COPT with appropriate system load model

Equivalent Unit Approach

(COPT for System A)
Capacity Out (MW)

Capacity In (MW)

Individual Probability

180

0.8324372644

Cumulative Probability
1

25

155

0.0679540624

0.1675627356

40

140

0.0876249752

0.0996086732

50

130

0.0020802264

0.0119836980

65

115

0.0071530592

0.0099034716

75

105

0.0000283024

0.0027504124

80

100

0.0023059204

0.0027221100

90

90

0.0002189712

0.0004161896

100

80

0.0000001444

0.0001972184

105

75

0.0001882384

0.0001970740

115

65

0.0000029792

0.0000088356

130

50

0.0000057624

0.0000058564

140

40

0.0000000152

0.0000000940

155

25

0.0000000784

0.0000000788

180

4E-10

4E-10

Equivalent Unit Approach

(COPT for System B)
Capacity Out Capacity In Individual
(MW)
(MW)
Probability
0
20
40
60
80
100

100
80
60
40
20
0

0.773781
0.203627
0.021434
0.001128
2.97E-05
3.13E-07

Cumulative
Probability
1
0.226219
0.022593
0.001158
0.000030
3.13E-07

Equivalent Unit Approach

(Assistance Probability Table from System B)
Assistance Probability
y
(MW)
25
5
0

0.773781
0.203627
0.022592

Equivalent Unit Approach

(Equivalent Assisting Unit Model of System B)

Capacity Out Capacity In Individual

(MW)
(MW)
Probability
0
20
25

25
5
0

0.773781
0.203627
0.022592

Cumulative
Probability
1
0.226219
0.022592

Equivalent Unit Approach

(Tie Line Constraint Equivalent
Assisting Unit Model of System B)
Capacity Out
(MW)

Capacity In
(MW)

Individual
Probability

0
5
10

10
5
0

0.773781x0.99
0.203627x0.99
0.022592x0.99+1x0.01

Equivalent Unit Approach

(Modified COPT of System A)
Capacity Out (MW)

Capacity In (MW)

Individual Probability

Cumulative Probability

190

0.63768289

185

0.16781164

0.36231710

10

180

0.02694273

0.19450547

25

165

0.05205575

0.16756274

30

160

0.01369891

0.11550699

35

155

0.00219941

0.10180808

40

150

0.06712452

0.09960867

45

145

0.01766438

0.03248416

50

140

0.00442962

0.01481977

55

135

0.00041935

0.01039015

60

130

0.00006373

0.00997080

65

125

0.00547955

0.00990347

70

120

0.00144199

0.00442392

75

115

0.00025320

0.00298192

80

110

0.00177214

0.00272873

85

105

0.00046577

0.00095659

90

100

0.00024238

0.00049082

95

95

0.00004414

0.00024845

100

90

0.00000720

0.00020431

105

85

0.00014423

0.00019711

Neglected
g
these
states with
cumulative
probabilities less
than E-04

Equivalent Unit Approach

(Reliability Indices)

System reliability indices can be calculated

b convolving
by
l i th
the modified
difi d COPT off S
System
t
A with appropriate load model. Using the
LDC, the following indices can be
calculated:
LOLE
(h/year)
22.20

LOEE
(MWh/year)

EIR

276.19

0.999678

Multi-Area Reliability

Multi-Area Reliability

Generation

Load

25MW (E)
150 MW (W)

SASK

G
Generation
i

Generation

Load

MH

0 MW (W)
200 MW (E)

Load

IESO

2175 MW (S)
(

850 MW (N)
(
Generation

Load

MISO

Major Factors Affecting

System Resource Adequacy
LOLE (h/year) LOEE (MWh/year)
Original System

33.03

511.54

With Unit deration

21.25

266.70

With LFU

51 43
51.43

598 82
598.82

With External Assistance

22.20

276.19

Major Factors Affecting

System Resource Adequacy

Generation

Load

Type of unit and capacity

FOR
Unit deration
Peak Load level
Load models
LFU

Interconnection

Tie capacity
Tie line availability
Interconnection agreement