March 7, 2014

Economic & Market news GS Global Investment Research1

ISM manufacturing index rose a bit more than expected to 53.2 in February vs. consensus of 52.3, from 51.3 in January. The underlying details of the report were mixed, with new orders rising, employment unchanged, and production declining. ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 51.6 in February vs. consensus of 53.5 from 54.0 in January. By component, business activity and employment fell, while new orders rose a touch. Nonfarm payrolls rose a larger-than-expected 175k in February vs. consensus of 149k. The negative impact from the weather was smaller than we anticipated, with construction employment gaining, despite a snowstorm occurring during the peak survey period. Unemployment rate increased to 6.7%, while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged.
Upcoming Economic Releases 1 Date Indicator Thursday (3/13/14) Friday (3/14/14) Retail Sales (Feb) Ex Autos PPI (Jan) Ex Food & Energy Reuters/U. Mich Cons. Sent. - Prel (Mar) Forecast GS & Co. Consensus +0.2% +0.1% +0.3% +0.1% 81.0 +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% 82.0 Previous -0.4% Flat +0.2% +0.2% 81.6

Index Returns2 (as of 3/7/2014) S&P 500 MSCI EAFE (USD) MSCI EME (USD) MSCI BRIC (USD) Barclay s Aggregate Barclay s US High Yield JPM Glbl. Div ersified S&P GSCI GS ART Index 1 Week 1.05% -0.35% 0.06% -1.36% -0.57% -0.21% -0.14% 0.63% 0.39%
2

MTD 1.05% -0.35% 0.06% -1.36% -0.57% -0.21% -0.14% 0.63% 0.39%

QTD 2.02% 0.96% -3.34% -6.91% 1.43% 2.53% 2.19% 3.44% 0.40%

YTD 2.02% 0.96% -3.34% -6.91% 1.43% 2.53% 2.19% 3.44% 0.40%

Bond Rates2 Fed Funds Target 3-Month Libor 2-Year Treasury 10-Year Treasury 2-10 slope HY Corp. spread (bps) 4 Bank Loan spread (bps) IG Corp. spread (bps) EMD spread (bps)

3/7/14 0.25% 0.24% 0.37% 2.79% 2.42% 362 476 110 309

2/28/14 0.25% 0.24% 0.32% 2.65% 2.33% 363 478 109 320

12/31/13 0.25% 0.25% 0.38% 3.03% 2.65% 382 489 114 308

12/31/12 0.25% 0.31% 0.25% 1.76% 1.51% 511 555 141 257

10-Yr Sovereign Debt2 US Canada Japan UK Germany Australia France Italy Portugal Spain Ireland
5

3/7/14 2.79% 2.52% 0.62% 2.79% 1.65% 4.17% 2.21% 3.42% 4.56% 3.36% 3.07% 6.76%

2/28/14 2.65% 2.42% 0.58% 2.72% 1.62% 4.02% 2.19% 3.48% 4.84% 3.50% 3.10% 6.90%

12/31/13 3.03% 2.76% 0.74% 3.02% 1.93% 4.24% 2.55% 4.08% 6.01% 4.13% 3.45% 8.27%

12/31/12 1.76% 1.80% 0.79% 1.83% 1.31% 3.27% 1.99% 4.49% 6.88% 5.23% 4.21% 11.68%

Commodities Oil ($/barrel) Gold ($/oz)

3/7/14 $102.58 $1,339.98 $3.49 $6,787.00 $654.00

3/7/14 $1.3875 $1.6713 CHF 0.8779 MXN 13.1872 CNY 6.1274 103.28

2/28/14 $102.59 $1,326.44 $3.45 $7,017.00 $602.25

2/28/14 $1.3802 $1.6745 CHF 0.8803 MXN 13.2492 CNY 6.1451 101.80

12/31/13 $98.42 $1,205.65 $3.32 $7,365.75 $612.00

12/31/13 $1.3743 $1.6557 CHF 0.8929 MXN 13.0367 CNY 6.0543 105.31

12/31/12 $91.82 $1,675.35 $3.29 $7,930.25 $787.75

12/31/12 $1.3193 $1.6255 CHF 0.9154 MXN 12.8533 CNY 6.2306 86.75

Gasoline ($/gallon) Copper ($/MT) Wheat ($/bu.)

Currencies2 Euro ($/) Pound ($/) Sw iss Franc (CHF/$) Mex ican Peso (MXN/$) Chinese Yuan (CNY/$) Yen (/$)

Greece

US Equity Size & Style Returns3

M o nt h- t o - D at e
( a s of 3 / 7 / 14 )

10-Year Treasury Note Yields2

Y ear- t o - D at e

S&P 500 Sector Returns: Month-to-Date2 (As of 3/7/2014)

3.1%
3.59 1.39 2.79

4.0 3.5 3.0

Value
1. 3 5 %

Co re
0.99%

Gro wth
0.65%

Value
Large
1. 9 8 %

Co re
2 . 4 1%

Gro wth
2.82%

High Low Current

1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

2.5
0.78% 0.76% 0.75%

-1.1%
Industrials Discretionary S&P 500 Staples Financials Info. Tech. Materials Telecom
Healthcare

M id

4.43%

4.60%

4.75%

1.5
1. 7 2 % 1. 7 5 % 1. 7 7 %

Small

2.27%

3.59%

4.84%

1.0 3/7/11

9/7/11

3/7/12

9/7/12

3/7/13

9/7/13

3/7/14

US Fixed Income Maturity &

M o nt h- t o - D at e

Quality Returns3
Y ear- t o - D at e

S&P 500 Trailing 1-Year Index

1900
Lo ng
4.27%

Levels2

S&P 500 Sector Returns: Year-to-Date2 (As of 3/7/2014)

7.3% 5.3% 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.9%
-1.0% -1.2%
Industrials S&P 500 Discretionary Info. Tech.
Financials

( a s of 3 / 7 / 14 )

Sho rt
- 0.22%

Intermed.
- 0.38%

Lo ng
- 2.00%

Sho rt
Government
0 . 3 1%

Intermed.
0.67%

1800
1700 1600 1500
High Low Current 1878.04 1541.61 1878.04

Materials

Staples

Utilities

- 0.06%

- 0.20%

- 0.35%

High Yield

1. 5 6 %

2.39%

5.02%

1400 3/7/13

6/7/13

9/7/13

12/7/13

3/7/14

Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

Healthcare

Telecom

Energy

- 0.24%

- 0.47%

- 1. 8 2 %

Corporate

0.78%

1. 4 2 %

3.57%

Utilities

2.0

Energy

-3.7%

March 7, 2014

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2 Source: Bloomberg (as of 3/7/2014) 3 Source: Bloomberg and OPAL (as of 3/7/2014) 4 Source: Credit Suisse (as of 3/7/2014) 5 The rate indicated on 12/31/2012 is for the countrys 8-Year note.

March 7, 2014

GENERAL DISCLOSURES
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