Immigration Reform PoliticsAFF Answers Samford Debate Institute 2013

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Immigration Reform PoliticsAFF Answers

2ac Front-Line ............................................................................................................................. 2 1ar Wont Pass ......................................................................................................................... 5 1ar: Obama Has No Political Capital ..................................................................................... 9 1ar: Winners Win.................................................................................................................. 10

Immigration Reform PoliticsAFF Answers Samford Debate Institute 2013

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2ac Front-Line
Immigration reform wont pass nowthree reasons: Sean Sullivan, 6/21/2013 (staff writer, Three signs of trouble for immigration reform
in the House, Retrieved 6/22/2013 from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/thefix/wp/2013/06/21/three-signs-of-trouble-for-immigration-reform-in-the-house/)
But over in the House is a different picture. There

are some emerging signs of trouble on the other side of the Capitol for comprehensive reform advocates. Here are the three biggest ones: 1. An unruly GOP Conference: The Houses failure to pass a farm bill Thursday was a stark reminder that the lower chambers Republican Conference just cant be led right now. Most Democrats voted against the bill, but they were
joined by enough conservatives who opposed it from the right to sink the measure. From the Plan B debacle in last years debate over tax rates to a recent effort to ban abortions after 20 weeks, the conservative wing of the House has made its voice heard on multiple occasions. So if the Senate passes an immigration bill by a wide margin, it remains to be seen whether that impresses anyone on the conservative side of the GOP Conference enough to shift their views. Given the track record of House Republicans, it could be a hard sell even if the Senate bill gets 70+ votes. 2.

Boheners Hastert Rule remark: House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) vowed this week not to bring an immigration bill to the floor that did not have the support of a majority of House Republicans. Setting such a condition in advance only narrows the path to passage. Boehner didnt rule out
relying on Democrats to pass a final version of immigration legislation that could be negotiated between the House and the Senate. But the last thing he needs right now for his own political future is to stoke more anger within his conference. Boehner will face pressure from Senate Republicans, donors, and other GOP players to get immigration reform done. But hes making clear early that despite all that, hes not going to walk away from his conference to get a deal done. And that hard line will make it more difficult for reform to happen, given the opposition on the right to pillars of the Senate bill. 3. The

GOP primary threat: This isnt new this week but it bears repeating, because, as the gun debate showed, it doesnt matter what public opinion says or what other external factors exist, members of Congress will ultimately prioritize the outlook of their constituents over whichever way the national conversation is leaning. If they dont, they up the chances of losing
their jobs. Redistricting has contributed to a situation in which many House Republicans represent safe GOP districts in which the threat of a primary is worth more worry than being defeated in the general election. A

vote for immigration reform could become an easy way for potential challengers to get to the right of incumbents in some Republican districts. And rest assured, GOP members will not lose sight of that.

(--) Obama has no capital for immigration reform: Fred Barnes, 4/22/2013 (staff writer, The Decline of Obama,
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/decline-obama_716280.html?page=1, Accessed 4/25/2013, rwg)
But theres something else involved as well. Under Obama, the presidency has been in decline. His use of the budget as a ploy against Republicans is an example of this. The biggest domestic issue is the looming fiscal crisis, but Obama has addressed it only rhetorically. Instead hes used the budget largely as a political tool that cheapened the presidency. Other presidents have done this, but far less crassly or brazenly. At least they presented their budgets on time, as required by law. Obama was two months late. He erased one of Washingtons oldest adages: The president proposes, Congress disposes. By last week, both the Senate and House had already pa ssed budget resolutions. Obamas tardiness touches on another aspect of presidential decline: the loss of influence. By long t radition, any release of the budget produced by the White House was a major event. True, the impact of the presidents budget has waned in recent years. O bama has made it an afterthought. On

Capitol Hill today, Obama has scarcely any clout at all . One reason: He acts as if spending time

with members of Congress, even Democrats, is an unpleasant chore. Another reason: Having deferred to Democrats in his first term, he finds it difficult to pull rank on them in his second. And having ignored or alienated Rep ublicans, he isnt likely to achieve much by courting them over dinner in recent weeks. Immigration

and gun control are the dominant issues in Congress at the moment, and Obama is a major player on neither of them. The gang of eightfour Democrats, four Republicansis the driving force on immigration in the Senate. Obama is no force at all.

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(--) Obama has no PC now and winners win: Amie Parnes, 3/20/2013 (staff writer, Obama honeymoon may be over,
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/289179-obama-honeymoon-may-be-over, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The second-term honeymoon for President Obama is beginning to look like it is over. Obama, who was riding high after his reelection win in November, has seen his poll numbers take a precipitous fall in recent weeks. A CNN poll released Tuesday showed Obamas favorability rating underwater, with 47 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving of Obamas handling o f his job. Much of the presidents agenda is stuck, with climate change regulations delayed, immigration reform mired in committee negotiations and prospects for a grand bargain budget deal in limbo at best. On Tuesday, in a decision that underscored Obamas depleting political capital , the White House watched as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced only a watered-down version of Obamas gun control proposals would be considered on the Senate floor. Republicans, sensing the sea change, are licking their chops. They
point to the lack of movement on Obamas signature issues, noting the contrast to the ambitious plans outlined in the early w eeks of his second term. The president set very high goals for himself during his State of the Union, but the reality is very little of his agenda is actually moving, Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said. He allowed himself to get caught up in the legislative quicksand, [and] the cement is beginning to harden. History isnt on Obamas side. The last four presidents who won a second term all saw their poll numbers slide by mid-March with the exception of Bill Clinton, whose numbers improved in the four months following his reelection. Clinton may have only been delaying the inevitable. His numbers dropped 5 points in April 1994. Even Ronald Reagan, buoyed by a dominant performance over Walter Mondale in the 1984 election, saw a double-digit erosion by this point in his second term. Obama has yet to complete the first 100 days of his second term. But without

a signature achievement since his reelection, he faces a crossroads that could define the remainder of his presidency. White House aides maintain that the 24-hour news cycle makes comparisons to previous presidents
difficult. I think the nature of our politics now is different than Ronald Reagans honeymoon, one senior administration official said. The ebb and flow of politics doesnt follow that model anymore. But observers say a drop in popularity is typical for second-termers. There may be some typical second-term honeymoon fade happening, said Martin Sweet, an assistant visiting professor of political science at Northwestern University. Honeymoon pe riods for incumbents are a bit more ephemeral. But like most other presidents, Sweet added, Obamas fate is tied to the economy. Continuing economic progress would ultimately strengthen the president but if we are hit with a double-dip recession, then Obamas numbers will crater, he said. The White House disputes any notion that Obama has lost any political capital in recent weeks. The president set out an ambitious agenda and hes doing big things that are not easy, from immigration to gun control, the senior administration official said. Those are policies you cant rack up easily, and no one here is naive about that. The White House is aware that the clock is ticking to push its hefty agenda, but the official added, The clock is not ticking because of presidents political capital. The clock is ticking because theres a timetable in achieving all of this. [Lawmakers] are not going to sign on because the presidents popular. And administration officials believe they still have the leverage. Theres a decent amount of momentum behind all of this, the official said. It looks like immigration is closer [to passage] than ever before. Republican strategist Ken Lundberg argued that current budget fights have cut short the presidents second -term honeymoon. He said this could also hurt the presidents party, warning the lower the presidents approval rating, the bigger the consequence for vulnerable Democrats. Voters want solutions, and if they see the president headed down the wrong path, lockstep lawmakers will be punished in 2014, he said. Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis maintained that as long as hes president, Obama still has the leverage. Immigration reform doesnt get impacted by whether Obamas poll numbers are 55 or 45, Kofinis said. Does it make certain t hings a little more difficult? Possibly. But while his numbers may have fallen, hes still more likeable than the Republicans are on their best day. Kofinis said the real question for Obama is what kind of emphasis hes going to place on his second term because the public will have less pat ience than they did during his first. The challenge in a second term is the American people look at certain things and have a higher tolerance in a second term, he said. When they know youre not running for reelection again, they hold you to a higher standard. Bonjean and other

Republicans are aware that Obama could potentially bounce back from his latest slip in the polls and regain his footing. He has the opportunity to take minor legislative

victories and blow them up into major accomplishments meaning if he got something on gun control, he can tout that that was part of his agenda and the work isnt over. If he were able to strike a grand bargain with Republicans, thatd be a
legacy issue.

House will block immigration reform: Andrew Johnson, 4/23/2013 (staff writer, Paul to Ingraham: Immigration Reform
Must Pass GOP-Controlled House Too, http://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paulingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-house, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
Senator Rand Paul joined Laura Ingraham on her radio show today to tell the

group of senators working on immigration reform to make sure it appeals to House Republicans, particularly in regards to a pathway to citizenship. This isnt passing unless it gets through a conservative House. Unless they ram it through with all Democrats in the House and a few Republicans, its not going to pass, Paul said. I think thats an important part of this that the Gang of Eight is going to have to figure out. Ive told them this repeatedly in private and in public, If you have a new pathway, youre making it hard for any conservatives to get on board with this, he added.

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Piecemeal reform solves: Prerna Lal, 2/22/2013 (Law Clerk at Benach Ragland LLP, How the GOP Can Win on
Immigration Reform, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/prerna-lal/how-the-gop-can-winon-immigration_b_2670348.html, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
As such, immigration legislation is likely to move only when the House leadership realizes it is in their best interest to lead on the issue. House Speaker Rep. John Boehner

and Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor are hinting at piecemeal reform as a viable solution that would break up the mammoth comprehensive immigration bill into more manageable pieces. Such a move would bring up popular immigration bills like the DREAM Act and STEM for a vote, giving certain groups more victories, and momentum. Data suggest that this would also translate into providing the GOP with the bit of traction that they need to win back the House for years to come. And given that "comprehensive" is now the Democrat partyline, a strong piecemeal approach by the Republicans would leave the Democrats hapless in the Senate with the empty and meaningless rhetoric of "comprehensive immigration reform" while
showing the public that the Republicans are not only willing to compromise on the issue, but willing to lead the way.

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1ar Wont Pass

(--) Extend our Sullivan evidence it says the GOP in the House wont come around to voting for immigration reformprefer our evidence it is predictive and not just a snapshot. (--) Republicans wont support immigration at the end of the day: Michael Tomasky, 4/24/2013 (staff writer, Republicans: An Immovable Wall of
Nays, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovablewall-of-nays.html, Accessed 4/25/2013, rwg)
This brings me back to immigration. The Tsarnaevs may not have derailed things, but other cracks are starting to show.
Last Thursdaybefore we knew who the Boston bombers wereRush Limbaugh speculated that immigration

Politico article yesterday made the same pointan analysis showed that if 11 million undocumented residents had been able to vote in 2012, Obama might have won Arizona and would even have made a race of it in Texas. This did not go unremarked in right-wing circles yesterday. The Big Bloviator himself weighed in: Senator Schumer can taste this. Hes so excited . All the Democrats.
reform would constitute Republican suicide. A Why would we agree to something that they are so eager to have? Immigration is the one area today on which a small number of Republicans are actually trying. Limbaughs position last week is a change from a couple of months ago, when Marco Rubio had him admitting that maybe the GOP needed to embrace reform. Its not hard to imagine him and Laura Ingraham and others turning surlier as the hour of truth on the bill approaches. I

will be impressed and more than a little surprised if the day comes and a majority of Republicans back an immigration bill. Passing such a bill is undoubtedly in their self-interest, as everyone has observed. What fewer have observed is that doing so is just not in their DNA. And life teaches us that genes usually get the better of reason.

(--) Wont get a vote in the House JOHN BRESNAHAN and JAKE SHERMAN, 4/14/13 (staff writers, Mitch
McConnell in no mood for bipartisanship, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships90043.html?hp=t1, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
From the outside, this spring has shaped up to be a season of bipartisanship on Capitol Hill. Gangs of senators have hashed out agreements on guns and immigration. President Barack Obama has had two dinners with Senate Republicans and traveled to the Hill to meet with lawmakers from both chambers. But the good feelings have really been only in the Senate, and only among a minority of Republicans to boot. Toxic

relationships between party leaders and partisan realities remain as strong as ever. Senate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), for instance, still hasnt gotten over feeling burned by Decembers traumatic fiscal cliff showdown. He has signaled privately that he has no interest in even sitting in the same room as Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to discuss a possible grand bargain on budget and tax issues, Senate insiders tell POLITICO. McConnell is fine with talking to Obama just talking at this point but he doesnt want Reid there when it happens. And while

the leaders dont get along, relationships among the other 98 senators will be tested when voting begins on the controversial gun and immigration measures
starting with this weeks expected vote on expanding background checks for firearms purchases. McConnell plans to pull out al l the stops to

senators are blasting any immigration plan that they say smells of amnesty. Thats just the Senate. House Republicans, their own seats made even safer by redistricting, are in no hurry bring up immigration, gun control or revenue issues or cave into the Obama administration or Democrats. In May,
block the bill, and GOP House Republicans will hold what they are dubbing a special conference to plan for the summers policy fights with Democrat s, similar to their January meeting in Williamsburg, Va., where they successfully recalibrated early year budget fights, according to GOP leadership aides. I dont see this as a wave and theres something in the water that has us changed, said Rep. James Lankford of Oklahoma, chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee. Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland seemed to agree. On top Democrat on the Budget Committee. 9

the House side, unfortunately you got a very knee-jerk ideologically rigid caucus for the most part, said Van Hollen, the

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(--) Wont pass: opposition from both Democrats and Republicans: Katie DeLong, 4/7/2013 (staff writer, Senate to debate bi-partisan immigration reform
proposal Wednesday, http://fox6now.com/2013/04/07/congress-returns-from-breakmonday-immigration-reform-tops-agenda/, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
Senate resistance The

Gang of Eight may be ideologically diverse, but that doesnt mean there wont be significant resistance to the plan once its released especially among wary conservatives. GOP base voters remain vehemently opposed to any plan which could be construed as amnesty for those who entered the country illegally. Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, remain concerned that conservatives will never agree the countrys southern border is secure, and will try to use that issue to continually deny citizenship to undocumented residents. In the Senate, Alabama Republican Jeff Sessions and others have repeatedly expressed the fear that
Democratic leaders will try to ram the Gang of Eights plan through before other members have a chance to properly consider the bill.

(--) Non-Unique: conservatives wont compromise on immigration reform: Associated Press, 4/14/2013 (RNC splits on deals as Congress weighs
compromises, www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/14/rnc-splits-on-deals-as-congressweighscompromises/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ foxnews%2Fpolitics+(Internal+-+Politics+-+Text, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
--A

bipartisan Senate group agreed, despite outcry from some conservative Republicans, on an immigration proposal to allow those who arrived in the U.S. illegally before 2012 to apply for legal status and ultimately citizenship,
provided they meet other criteria. --A separate group of Senate Republicans and Democrats voted to allow debate on a measure that would subject more gun buyers to background checks, beating back an effort by conservative Republicans and the National Rifle Association to thwart the legislation. --Obama released a budget proposal that includes provisions to slow the growth of spending for Social Security and Medicare, cuts Republicans have long advocated, in return for raising taxes on upper incomes, extending an olive branch of sorts to the GOP. All

that had some GOP activists at the gathering fretting that such deal-making is exacerbating a credibility problem within the party's rank and file. These Republicans worry that the party already has ceded too much to Obama. They cited Republicans voting in Obama's first term to authorize increasing the nation's debt ceiling, and the "fiscal cliff" debate
in which a minority of House Republicans agreed to Obama's demand for income tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans. "People saw us as the compromise party that kept on buckling," Iowa Republican Party Chairman A.J. Spiker said. "It sends the message that people cannot trust us on our principles." The

RNC chairman is among those showing little willingness to budge. "When it comes to compromise, I think our party has done its fair share, and it doesn't seem like we get a whole lot in return," Priebus told The Associated Press this week. "The president has proven to be a person that generally does things for political
purposes and gain ... in order to make the greater point that somehow the Republicans aren't coming on board."

(--) Partisanship is high now: JOHN BRESNAHAN and JAKE SHERMAN, 4/14/13 (staff writers, Mitch
McConnell in no mood for bipartisanship, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships90043.html?hp=t1, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
Such is life in Congress, where hope

of bipartisanship is giving way to the same old toxic relations . From the

outside, the Senate appeared to have the bipartisan thing down this spring: so called gangs of senators have hashed out agreemen ts on guns and immigration. President Barack Obama has had two dinners with Senate Republicans and traveled up to the Hill to meet with lawmakers from both chambers. But the

good feelings have really been only in the Senate, and only among a minority of Republicans to boot. Bad blood remains between party leaders and the national partisan realities havent changed.

(--) Conservatives bashing immigration reform now: JOHN BRESNAHAN and JAKE SHERMAN, 4/14/13 (staff writers, Mitch
McConnell in no mood for bipartisanship,

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http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships90043.html?hp=t1, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

On the immigration front, while the bipartisan Gang of Eight that includes Durbin and Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), have the outline of a deal that could reach the Senate floor this summer, the

knives are already out from the right as amnesty for illegal immigrants. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) blasted the proposal on Fox News Sunday, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a GOP rising star, has also criticized the plan.

(--) Immigration reform wont make it to Obamas desk: The Hill, 3/9/2013 (Crucial stretch for Obama,
http://thehill.com/opinion/editorials/289159-crucial-stretch-for-obama, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg) President Obama has a big second-term agenda, but he faces a make-or-break stretch during the
next couple of months on two big issues. He has made gun control and immigration reform top priorities, but neither is close to getting to his desk.

(--) Wont pass: friction between unions and the Chamber of Commerce: The Hill, 3/9/2013 (Crucial stretch for Obama,
http://thehill.com/opinion/editorials/289159-crucial-stretch-for-obama, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The immigration Gang of Eight this week vowed to release bill language next month. By all accounts, those promises are expected to be kept. But there has been friction on the issue between important stakeholders, the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. If those differences are not resolved, the bill will teeter.

(--) Wont pass: 4 reasons-Alex Altman, 3/20/2013 (staff writer, Four Hurdles That Could Block Immigration
Reform, http://swampland.time.com/2013/03/20/four-hurdles-that-could-blockimmigration-reform/, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The next few months offer the best chance in a generation for the two parties to solve a problem that has bedeviled Congress like few others.

Both sides agree the U.S. immigration system is broken. Both would seem to gain from a deal that clears a pathway out of legal oblivion for the nations 11 million illegal immigrants. Support is building for a landmark pact. But while negotiations are progressing in both the House and Senate, an agreement is a long way off. As the talks grow more detailed, obstacles to a deal may begin to emerge: Problem #1: The Gang of Eight The first snag lurks in
the Senate, where the so-called Gang of Eight has huddled privately since the election in hopes of hammering out a bill. Members have crafted a set of measures that would create a pathway to citizenship for the nations estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants with in about 13 years while requiring them to register with federal authorities, pay back taxes and fines, learn English and undergo background checks. The deal, both sides agree, would also beef up border security and determine how the future flow of immigrants will be regulated to match the needs of the economy. (MORE: Rand Paul Embraces Immigration Reform) The Gangs closed conclaves have been marked by Vatican -style secrecy, often a sign of progress in a town where silence is rare. The Gangs members Republicans Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Jeff Flake, and Democrats Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, Bob Menendez and Michael Bennet have, by all accounts, developed a rapport. You can tell by the tone of their voices, says an elected Democrat briefed on the progress of the private talks. But the broad themes are the easy part.

The full bill will stretch to hundreds of pages, each peppered with detailed provisions that could spike it. Members bring clashing political imperatives and ideologies to the talks. Rubio, for example, is
trying to repair the GOPs tattered image with Hispanic voters without sparking a backlash among the movement conservatives hed need in a presidential bid. Graham, who faces a probable primary challenge in 2014, has a habit of basking in the bipartisan spotlight before bolting when negotiations intensify. The measure of the Gang of Eights success isnt whether they are aligned at the start of their talks. Its whether they are all aligned at the end. Problem

#2: The Lobbyists A few years ago, an impasse between the leaders of the Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO helped scupper an immigration-reform bill backed by President George W. Bush. At that time, business and labor could not agree on how many visas to grant low skilled workers who make the
construction, agriculture and hotel and restaurant industries hum. The Chamber wanted cheap labor, but didnt want workers to stay; unions were concerned about protecting citizens jobs. Soon after, reform collapsed. This time the two groups have nurtured an unlikely alliance. There has been a sea change, says a labor source close to the discussions. Nudged by Graham and Schumer, the two lobbies released a set of shared principles, including one stating that Americans should get first crack at available jobs and that businesses should have the flexibility to

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hire to meet the demands of the market. But history could repeat itself again. The two sides call for a new federal agency charged with setting visa levels, but they have yet to agree on whos eligible or how the new bureau will work. The issue of fu ture flow has been a stubborn sticking point before. And it is as easy to imagine conservatives balking at efforts to create a new government agency as it is to foresee unions drawing a line at a small number of foreign workers. (MORE: Committee to Save the GOP Says Pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, Become Inclusive to Gays or Keep Losing) Problem

#3: House Republicans Even if Senate negotiators can come up with a package to get 60 votes in the upper chamber, the question continues to be, how does it get through the House? says Frank Sharry, an expert on immigration reform. As in the Senate, a bipartisan cluster of eight representatives
from across the ideological spectrum have been secretly meeting for months. Congressman Luis Gutierrez, an Illinois Democrat who has long been a leader on immigration reform, is full of praise for the new tack taken by his Republican counterparts. But, he acknowl edges, You

still

have to put those votes on the board, and thats going to be a real, real test in the House of
Representatives. For their part, Republicans say the partys old dogma, which held that illegal immigrants should self -deport and then go to the back of the line, is not viable policy. Even many immigration hard-liners say they want to help shape comprehensive reform. Its time for us to belly up to the bar, says Ted Poe, the Texas Republican who chairs the House immigration reform caucus. But for conservative s, amnesty remains a dirty word. A bill thats basically amnesty, that says youre here and youre going to be a citizen those two things are not going to come out of this conservative House, says Poe. Even citizenship is charged enough that Republican Senator Rand Paul, who gav e a speech March 19 backing a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants, avoided using the term. Many House Republicans, including several in the Judiciary Committee through which a bill must pass, have a long history of antipathy to amnesty, and only a grassroots rebellion to fear as next years primaries approach. Then there is the reality that even if Republicans were to be widely supportive of amnesty, very few of those new citizens are likely to abandon the Democratic Party anytime soon. Republicans face a choice: do they ditch their princip les and go all out in a failing attempt to outpander Democrats? asks Rosemary Jenks, director of government relations at NumbersUSA, which advocat es for lower immigration levels. Its becoming very clear to Republicans in Congress that this is not going to get them the Hispanic vote. (MORE: The Plight of the Illegal Nanny) Problem

#4: The Democrats Little discussed but also looming is the possibility that Democrats drag their feet on reform. Liberals will balk if the path to citizenship is too long or too onerous, or if enforcement provisions are too rigid. Many conservatives also suspect that Democratic power brokers, despite their daily hammering of Republicans to get moving on immigration reform, would privately prefer to keep the issue as a cudgel than actually pass a law. Barack Obama wants to make a bill come out of the Senate that is so far out there that it would
never pass, so that he can blame us for not being compassionate and use the issue to take back the House in 2014, says a Hou se Republican. Even some liberals see this as a plausible scenario. Theres always a lingering doubt in my mind, admits one House Democrat. O bama knows that putting his fingerprints on the deal is an easy way to kill it; when a draft of his proposal leaked in the press, he called Republican negotiators individually to apologize. But if negotiations in Congress bog down, he may not be so hands off.

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1ar: Obama Has No Political Capital

(--) Extend our Barnes evidenceObama is out of political capitalObama isnt a major player on either guns or immigrationthis also takes out their internal link as Obama isnt pushing immigration. (--) Obama cant effectively use the bully pulpit: Fred Barnes, 4/22/2013 (staff writer, The Decline of Obama,
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/decline-obama_716280.html?page=1, Accessed 4/25/2013, rwg)
The bully pulpit has served Obama poorly, as it has every president since Reagan. Obama, however, was expected to be more eloquent than his predecessors, thus able to generate enthusiasm for his initiatives. If anything, hes generating indifference. His speeches on health care failed to stop Obamacare from losing popularity. His speeches on gun control failed similarly.

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1ar: Winners Win

(--) Extend our Parmes evidenceObama has no political capital now and needs to exploit small wins in order to bounce backprefer our evidence its specific to Obama and his need to get back in the game now. (--) Winners win: Picking fights with Republicans is only way for Obama to get his agenda passed: John Dickerson, 1/18/2013 (staff writer, Go for the Throat!
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/01/barack_obama_s_seco nd_inaugural_address_the_president_should_declare_war.single.html, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
The challenge for President Obamas speech is the challenge of his second term: how to be great when the environment stinks. Enhancing t he presidents legacy requires something more than simply the clever application of predictable stratagems. Washingtons partisa n rancor, the size of the problems facing government, and the limited amount of time before Obama is a lame duck all point to a single conclusion: The

president who came into office speaking in lofty terms about bipartisanship and cooperation can only cement his legacy if he destroys the GOP. If he wants to transform American politics, he must go for the throat.
President Obama could, of course, resign himself to tending to the achievements of his first term. He'd make sure health care reform is implemented, nurse the economy back to health, and put the military on a new footing after two wars. But he's more ambitious than that. He ran for president as a one-term senator with no executive experience. In his first term, he pushed for the biggest overhaul of health care possible because, as he told his aides, he wanted to make history. He may already have made it. There's no question that he is already a president of consequence. But there's no sign he's content to ride out the second half of the game in the Barcalounger. He is approaching gun control, climate change, and immigration with wide and excited eyes. He's not going for caretaker. How should the president proceed then, if he wants to be bold? The Barack Obama of the first administration might have approached the task by finding some Republicans to deal with and then start agreeing to some of their demands in hope that he would win some of their votes. It's the traditional approach. Perhaps he could add a good deal more schmoozing with lawmakers, too. That's the old way. He has abandoned that. He doesn't think it will work and he doesn't have the time. As Obama explained in his last press conference, he thinks the Republicans are dead set on opposing him. They cannot be unchained by schmoozing. Even if Obama were wrong about Republican intransigence, other constraints will limit the chance for cooperation. Republican lawmakers worried about primary challenges in 2014 are not going to be willing partners. He probably has at most 18 months before people start dropping the lame-duck label in close proximity to his name. Obamas succeeds in passing legislation or not, given his ambitions, his

only remaining option is to pulverize. Whether he goal should be to delegitimize his opponents. Through a series of clarifying fights over controversial issues, he can force Republicans to either side with their coalition's most extreme elements or cause a rift in the party that will leave it , at least temporarily, in disarray. This theory of political transformation rests on the weaponization (and slight bastardization) of the work by Yale political scientist
Stephen Skowronek. Skowronek has written extensively about what distinguishes transformational presidents from caretaker presidents. In order for a president to be transformational, the old order has to fall as the orthodoxies that kept it in power exhaust themselves. Obama's gambit in 2009 was to build a new post-partisan consensus. That didn't work, but by

exploiting the weaknesses of todays Republican Party, Obama has an opportunity to hasten the demise of the old order by increasing the political cost of having the GOP coalition defined by Second Amendment absolutists, climate science deniers, supporters of self deportation and the pure no-tax wing.

Immigration Reform PoliticsAFF Answers Samford Debate Institute 2013

11 Opening Packet