** Immigration Reform Politics **

Uniqueness Supplement
** Immigration Reform Politics **............................................................................................................... 1 Immigration reform will pass .................................................................................................................. Will pass Obama will apply political pressure and be successful at motivating support .............. 2 Will pass Boehner will act on something, and claims that reform is dead are massively exaggerated. ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Will pass Key political figures will raise momentum with their support ....................................... 3 Political capital could make the difference is immigration reform passage vote count is very close ads and advocacy groups provide momentum..................................................................... 4 Immigration reform wont pass .............................................................................................................. No chance of immigration reform passage House will kill it. ........................................................ 6 Wont pass Boehner policy preferences will poison potential for passage ................................... 6 Wont pass significant differences remain on reform details ........................................................ 7 House wont pass immigration reform fundamental disagreements about path to citizenship... 8 Wont pass no house agreement on border security .................................................................... 8 Wont pass House republicans only potentially support piecemeal, not comprehensive reform that focuses on border security. ....................................................................................................... 9

Immigration reform will pass

Will pass Obama will apply political pressure and be successful at motivating support David Jackson, USA TODAY 5:45 p.m. EDT July 10, 2013 Obama, allies pressure GOP on immigration
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/07/10/obama-immigration-hispanic-gopboehner/2505437/ WASHINGTON President Obama and allies are ramping up efforts to apply political pressure to House Republicans over immigration. Obama plotted strategy Wednesday with Democratic members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, while his team released a report saying "common sense immigration reform" would have major economic benefits. "It's time for the House to act," White House spokesman Jay Carney said. The Democratic-run Senate has passed an immigration bill, but the issue faces an uphill fight in the House, where members of the Republican majority describe the Senate plan as an amnesty bill. Rep. Ruben Hinojosa, D-Texas, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said members asked Obama to travel the country in support of an immigration overhaul. "We believe that the president is giving consideration to going across the country and explaining to the American people the benefits that will come from passage of this legislation," Hinojosa said. "We welcome that." The all-Democratic Hispanic caucus and Obama discussed voting rights, implementation of the health care bill and diversity in appointments. Though Carney said Obama seeks a bipartisan immigration bill from Congress, there is a very political aspect to the debate: the possibility that Democrats will try to use the immigration issue against Republicans in the 2014 congressional elections if the House doesn't pass a bill. Republicans have struggled with the quickly growing Hispanic vote in recent years, which contributed to Mitt Romney's loss to Obama in the 2012 presidential election. Some House Republicans say the proposed bill which includes a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally would be ineffective and amounts to amnesty for lawbreakers. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said he agrees the immigration system should be improved, but the emphasis should be on border security. He challenged the comprehensive nature of the Senate bill, saying, "We believe that a common sense, step-by-step approach is the right way." House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, RVa., told radio host Sean Hannity that the immigration system is broken, but "a much more deliberative approach" is needed to fix it. Cantor said new legislation must have "definite matrixes" to make sure the government follows through on border security. In the coming weeks, Obama administration officials will promote the support of business, law enforcement and local government officials for a new immigration bill. Carney said, "We are on this every day." Organizing for Action, the political committee forged from the remnants of Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, urged its members to lobby GOP members of Congress on immigration.

Will pass Boehner will act on something, and claims that reform is dead are massively exaggerated. Charlie Spiering Published: July 11, 2013 Robert Costa: Immigration reform not dead among House
Republicans http://newsok.com/robert-costa-immigration-reform-not-dead-among-houserepublicans/article/feed/564714 Immigration reform is not dead and Speaker John Boehner wants to keep House Republicans moving forward, according to National Reviews Robert Costa. Costa suggested that members of the mainstream press who were pessimistic about the bills future in the House had a case of Steve King fever referring to the congressman from Iowa who remains a vocal opponent of immigration reform. Costa, however, indicated that House Republicans were not giving up on the issue. Theres a sense

that because the right flank of the Republican party especially in the House is so vocal, that theyre somehow dominating the debate, Costa said, But I really tried to read between the lines in todays meeting and I heard this from Speaker Boehner. He wants to do something on immigration reform, Paul Ryan was quite vocal and positive in the meeting about immigration reform and so I dont think theyre ruling anything out.

Will pass Key political figures will raise momentum with their support AP | Jul 11, 2013, 11.45 AM IST Obama, Bush leap into US immigration fight
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Obama-Bush-leap-into-US-immigrationfight/articleshow/21015018.cms WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama and former President George W Bush are leaping into the immigration debate, but their attempts to add momentum to the search for a possible path to citizenship for millions face strong opposition in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. As Bush delivered a rare political speech on Wednesday in favor of immigration reform and Obama prepared for a bipartisan meeting with prominent senators at the White House, Republicans who control the House bluntly challenged Obama and appeared unimpressed by Bush's advice to carry a "benevolent spirit" into the debate. Emerging from a closed-door meeting, Republican leaders affirmed a step-by-step approach to immigration but offered neither specifics nor a timetable nor any mention of possible citizenship for an estimated 11 million immigrants living in the US unlawfully. Lawmakers streaming out of the two-hour meeting said Bush's long-distance advice had not come up in a discussion that focused instead on the importance of securing the US borders and a general distrust of Obama. The meeting in the Capitol was the House Republicans' first such gathering since the Senate approved sweeping legislation last month on a bipartisan vote of 68-32. Obama is to meet on Thursday with two authors of the Senate measure, Republican John McCain and Democrat Chuck Schumer, in the president's Oval Office. The legislation faces a steep challenge in the House, and the former president's ability to sway a new generation of conservatives was a matter of considerable doubt, especially because many of the conservative tea party movement-backed lawmakers have risen to power since he left the White House and are strongly on record in opposition to any citizenship provision. "We care what people back home say, not what some former president says," declared Rep. Tim Huelskamp, a second-term Republican who has clashed with the party leadership in the House. Still, the timing and substance of Bush's remarks were reminders of the imperative that many national party leaders feel that Republicans must broaden their appeal among Hispanic voters to compete successfully in future presidential elections. Obama took more than 70 percent of their votes in winning a second term last year. "America can be a lawful society and a welcoming society at the same time," Bush said at a naturalization ceremony at his presidential library in Dallas. For their part, Democrats quickly embraced the former president's message, challenging House Speaker John Boehner to proceed in the same spirit. In a written statement noting that the White House recently delayed a key part of Obama's health care reform law, Boehner and other leaders said that action raised concerns that the administration "cannot be trusted to deliver on its promises to secure the border and enforce laws as part of a single, massive bill like the one passed by the Senate." Lawmakers said after the session there was strong support for a bill to create a path to citizenship for immigrants who were brought to the country as children illegally by family members, an idea advanced by Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Republican Rep. Robert Goodlatte, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said his panel would soon begin work on legislation covering that group. Several members of the rank and file said Republican Paul Ryan had made a particularly strong appeal for a comprehensive approach, which includes possible citizenship for the 11 million. But others emphasized there was virtually no support for the Senate's approach of one sweeping measure that dealt with immigration in all its forms.

Political capital could make the difference is immigration reform passage vote count is very close ads and advocacy groups provide momentum. Benjy Sarlin, @benjysarlin House GOP remains far from immigration plan 7:22 PM on 07/10/2013 http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/07/10/immigration-reform-house-gop-meets-andleaves-with-few-answers/ Republican House members left a major huddle on immigration reform with vague plans to move forward on the issue, but little consensus on how to deal with the the 11 million undocumented immigrants in America today. Participants told reporters after the meeting that leaders hoped to slowly move forward with a variety of small bills dealing with immigration enforcement, agricultural workers, and high-tech visas, among other areas. A vote on major legislation before the August recess seems unlikely. As for a path to citizenshipor even basic legal statusfor undocumented immigrants, the party still needs to figure out its position. The Senate passed a bipartisan bill addressing all of these issues, and more and leaders are unwilling to support anything short of a complete package. Today was more of a listening session, Congressman Raul Labrador of Idaho, who worked on a bipartisan immigration proposal before dropping out of talks, told reporters. In a joint statement after the meeting, House leaders said members dont trust a Democratic-controlled Washington, and theyre alarmed by the presidents ongoing insistence on enacting a single, massive, Obamacare-like bill rather than pursuing a step-by-step, common-sense approach to actually fix the problem. Several members suggested after the meeting that the House GOP might be able to get behind a more modest measure that would provide eventual citizenship to undocumented immigrants who arrived in the country as children. A bill that would have accomplished that goal, the DREAM Act, passed the then-Democratic House in 2010 despite overwhelming Republican opposition, and was then blocked by Senate Republicans. There were some voices of strong compassion for people in that situation [in the meeting], Congressman Doug Lamborn of Colorado told reporters. Others raised the prospect that some undocumented immigrants might be able to apply for legal status through guest worker programs or processes equally available to applicants outside the country. When we get to those 11 million people we will view how our earlier legislation affects them and then what to do with individuals who fall outside of that, California Republican Darrell Issa said. But beyond that, there wasnt a clear consensus on whether most undocumented immigrants would receive even limited legal protections under a House billat least not without a long list of border security measures taking effect first. Given that Democrats and immigration groups have set a path to citizenship as an absolute minimum for their support, thats a huge obstacle to a final deal. I think right now its a question of where the majority iswhether the majority inside our conference is opposed to legalization of any kind, or whether they arent, Iow a Congressman Steve King, one of the leading opponents of reform, said. And right now I think its very close to 50-50. Republicans have lately expressed skepticism about almost everyone involved with immigration reform. Many say theyre afraid President Obama and the Department of Homeland Security wont enact tens of billions of dollars of new enforcement measures even though the White House has already presided over record deportations. But plenty of others are concerned about Speaker Boehner as well, saying they fear he might use a hardline immigration bill as a vehicle to negotiate a moderate compromise with the Senate in conference. He gave assurances it would be a conference committee that would accurately reflect the will of the House, of the Republican conference, Congressman John Fleming of Louisiana said. He added he was not satisfied by their assurances: How do you hold someone accountable for that? Thats a very vague, very nondescript, and subjective thing.

Immigration reformers are holding out hope that they can still convince Republicans that opposing a comprehensive bill would be a political disaster. National Democrats are running ads targeting a handful of Republican members with large Latino and Asian constituencies, and advocacy groups are working off their own list that includes members whose districts house large agricultural and hightech interests. The White House is also weighing how best to pressure the House into acting without scaring off Republicans.

Immigration reform wont pass

No chance of immigration reform passage House will kill it. Net Nebraska Way Forward On Immigration Splits House GOP July 11, 2013 - 4:12am
http://www.netnebraska.org/node/861276 "It is a non-starter. It will go nowhere in the House." "The bills will both deal with the topic of immigration. ... That may be the only common ground they have." Those statements, and the dozens of others like them from Republican lawmakers leaving a private meeting on immigration reform Wednesday, should come as no shock to anyone following the debate. The close of the two-and-a-half hour huddle made clear there is no chance the Senate-passed bipartisan immigration reform legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented people living in the United States would get consideration on the House floor. And the splash of ice cold water served as a wake-up call for advocates who had hoped to see legislation reach President Barack Obama's desk this summer. The New York Times' Ashley Parker and Jonathan Weisman drove home the point in a story Thursday: Though they may pass one or two modest bills before the August recess, many members said they felt no urgency to deal with an immigration overhaul, with the fall likely to be dominated by fights over the budget and the federal debt ceiling. Behind closed doors at the Capitol, House Speaker John Boehner told the 234 Republicans that the party must come up with an alternative to the bill approved by the Senate last month or suffer political consequences for inaction.

Wont pass Boehner policy preferences will poison potential for passage BRIAN BEUTLER JULY 9, 2013, 11:36 AM 3365
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/07/boehner-and-the-right-team-up-to-quash-immigrationreform.php The already narrow path to enacting comprehensive immigration reform pretty much disappeared in the past 24 hours. At the Capitol, House Speaker John Boehner stated a specific policy preference Tuesday that will alienate the entire Democratic Party if he adheres to it, and thus doom the reform effort. And elsewhere in the Beltway, influential conservatives have grown more confident and explicit about abandoning the immigration issue, for at least a couple of years. Taken together, it means that enacting new immigration legislation will either require Democrats to cave on a key demand, or require Boehner to abandon his preference and break his word to his conference that he wont move ahead without a majority of his members in support. Its clear from everything that Ive seen and read over the last couple of weeks that the American people expect that well have strong border security in place before we begin the process of legalizing and fixing our legal immigration system, Boehner said outside the Capitol Monday afternoon. His spokesman Michael Steel explains that the statement is consistent with Boehners long-standing emphasis on border security. But it amounts to a de facto endorsement of the conservative view that any steps to legalize existing immigrants should be contingent upon implementation of draconian border policies. As is Boehners custom, it also eschews the word citizenship, suggesting that even if Democrats agree to a trigger, he wont guarantee that it would be aimed at a full amnesty program, and, thus, eventual voting rights for immigrants already in the U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has called this policy formulation a poison pill. But if conservatives get their way, well never even reach the point at which Boehner or Democrats will face pressure to cave.

Wont pass significant differences remain on reform details DAVID ESPO AND ERICA WERNER JULY 11, 2013, 6:34 AM 1008
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/house-gop-wont-move-ahead-with-comprehensive-immigrationreform.php WASHINGTON (AP) House Republicans are embracing a step-by-step approach to immigration, in contrast to the sweeping plan passed by the Senate and backed by the White House. But theyre offering neither specifics nor a timetable nor any mention of possible citizenship for an estimated 11 million immigrants living in the country unlawfully. Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and other Republican leaders said in a statement the administration cannot be trusted to deliver on its promises to secure the border and enforce laws as part of a single, massive bill like the one passed by the Senate. House GOP lawmakers streaming out of a two-hour meeting on immigration Wednesday also shrugged off a long-distance nudge from former President George W. Bush, who called on Congress to reach a positive resolution on the issue. America can be a lawful society and a welcoming society at the same time, Bush said at a naturalization ceremony at his presidential library in Dallas. We care what people back home say, not what some former president says, declared Rep. Tim Huelskamp, RKan. President Barack Obama is to meet Thursday with two authors of the Senate measure, John McCain, R-Ariz., and Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., in the Oval Office. The Republican meeting in the Capitol was arranged as a listening session for the House GOP, their first such session since the Senate approved far-reaching legislation last month on a bipartisan vote of 68-32. Lawmakers said afterward there was support for a bill to create a path to citizenship for immigrants who were brought to the country as children illegally by family members, an idea advanced by Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia. Several members of the rank and file said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., had made a particularly strong appeal for a comprehensive approach, which includes possible citizenship for the 11 million. But others emphasized there was virtually no support for the Senates approach of one sweeping measure that dealt with immigration in all its forms. And there is no clear timetable. I dont sense any urgency, said Rep. John Fleming of Louisiana. Rep. Peter King of New York said that if any legislation came to the floor for a vote this month, it would deal only with border security.

No House republican support for comprehensive immigration reform. Stephanie Condon Dim prospects for comprehensive immigration bill in House Posted: Jul 11, 2013 6:44 AM by - CBS News http://www.ktvq.com/news/dim-prospects-forcomprehensive-immigration-bill-in-house/ Two weeks after the Senate passed a comprehensive immigration reform bill with bipartisan support, the House Republican Conference on Wednesday confirmed their decision to take a different path and tackle immigration reform with multiple, piecemeal bills. Those standalone bills, however, may not even get to the House floor until September. The slow pace of immigration reform in the House underscores the challenges facing House Republicans: In addition to considering the different priorities of their members, they must balance their short-term political interest in pleasing a conservative base with their long-term interest in fostering a political relationship with Latino voters. For now, House Republicans are, at the very least, making clear that they will not accept the Senate bill. Following an hours-long meeting with their entire caucus, House GOP leaders released a statement calling the Senate bill "flawed" and "rushed," even though the "gang of eight" bipartisan senators worked for months on the effort. They likened a comprehensive immigration bill to the Affordable Care Act -- the lowest blow possible, from the perspective of a conservative.

House wont pass immigration reform fundamental disagreements about path to citizenship Wall Street Journal July 11, 2013, 7:24 AM
House Sees a Trap in Immigration Deal http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/07/11/house-sees-a-trapin-immigration-compromise/ Many House Republicans so dislike the comprehensive immigration reform bill the Senate passed recently that they dont want the House to pass anything remotely similar, lest they be compelled to enter a conference with the Senate in which they would have to swallow some of its elements in a compromise. So, as the Journals Sara Murray and Kristina Peterson are reporting, House Republicans met among themselves Wednesday and hardened in their resolve to avoid taking up a single, comprehensive immigration bill at all. Instead, they are embarked on an entirely different approach: They propose to consider a series of narrower bills one by one, on, for example, toughening up border security and increasing the number of visas provided to highly skilled workers in the high-tech industry. What the House may never do is consider a bill to provide a path to citizenship for the 11 million or so illegal aliens already in the U.S. That idea lies at the heart of the Senate bill, but is anathema to some House Republicans.

Hardline republicans are promising a long slow death for immigration reform in the House. Eric Schurenberg | Inc.com staff Jul 11, 2013 Kiss Immigration Reform Good-bye
http://www.inc.com/eric-schurenberg/no-reason-to-oppose-immigration-reform.html The House Republicans two-hour meeting yesterday on immigration reform was supposed to be private, a chance for the partys pro-reform establishment and its anti-reform hardliners to exchange views away from the prying eyes of voters and the press. But enough noise leaked out from behind the closed doors to make clear what was happening, and it was this: the long, slow death that hardline Republicans promised for immigration reform has begun. Its hard to imagine a more disappointing outcome for business in general and entrepreneurs in particular.

Wont pass no house agreement on border security CBS News 7/11/13 House Republicans No Closer on Immigration Plan
http://www.ozarksfirst.com/story/house-republicans-no-closer-on-immigrationplan/d/story/ETn53YFnMUK3tHWHtPAFHw WASHINGTON, DC -- President Obama and former president Bush both called on Congress to pass immigration reform legislation. But nothing can pass the House unless Republican members agree. And right now, some say the odds of getting immigration reform out of the house are 50-50. GOP members spent the evening on Capitol Hill talking about what to do with the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the country. Immigrants from around the country rallied outside the U.S. Capitol to tell members of congress they want immigration reform. Inside, House Republicans met in the basement for two-and-a-half hours to discuss the topic. About the only thing they do agree on is what must come first. "Unless there is border security first, there will be no bill," believes Rep. Michele Bachmann/(R) Minnesota

Wont pass House republicans only potentially support piecemeal, not comprehensive reform that focuses on border security. Gary Martin | July 10, 2013 | Updated: July 10, 2013 11:59pm House GOP resists calls for
comprehensive immigration reform http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/article/House-GOPresists-calls-for-comprehensive-4658690.php?cmpid=usworldhcat WASHINGTON - House Republicans expressed a clear preference for a deliberate, patchwork approach to immigration reform Wednesday, telling their leaders they favored border security measures before any consideration of citizenship proposals. "We are very anti-comprehensive - we are all about piecemeal," said Rep. John Fleming, R-La. Most GOP lawmakers apparently were unmoved by pleas from national party leaders including former President George W. Bush to reach a consensus and move forward to tackle the problem. "The only consensus was on border security first," said Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio.