GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

Quarterly Review of the trends in receipts and expenditure in relation to budget at the end of the financial year 2004-2005

(As required under Section 7(1) of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003)

Ministry of Finance

CONTENTS
Page Macroeconomic backdrop Review of trends in receipts and expenditure of Government during 2004-05 Receipts Tax Revenue Non-tax Revenue Non-debt Capital Receipts Expenditure Plan Expenditure Non-Plan Expenditure Resources transferred to States/UTs Commercial Receipts and Expenditure Status of cash balances during the year Financing of Fiscal Deficit Market Stabilization Scheme National Small Savings Fund Status of total liabilities Concluding remarks Annexure-I (Accounts at a Glance) Annexure-II (Tax Revenue) Annexure-III (Non-Tax Revenue) Annexure-IV (Capital Receipts) Annexure-V (Plan Expenditure) Annexure-VI (Non-Plan Expenditure) 2 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 15 17 1

Statement on Quarterly Review of the trends in receipts and expenditure in relation to the budget at the end of the financial year 2004-05
Macroeconomic backdrop 1. The initial growth projections for 2004-05, which were low to begin with, were subsequently revised downward. This was mainly because of deficient rainfall and deterioration in the world inflationary environment due to a sharp upward movement in global oil prices. However, the economy has performed better and is estimated to have grown by 6.9 per cent on top of the 8.5 per cent growth recorded in 2003-04. CSO's Advance Estimates of 6.9 per cent growth for 2004-05 has been reconfirmed in the Revised Estimates. The lower growth in agriculture and allied sectors and marginal decline in services sector has been partially offset by the higher growth in industry. 2. As per the quarterly estimates released by CSO, the economy is estimated to have grown by 7.0 per cent as against 8.4 per cent growth in the last quarter of 2003-04. After exhibiting a decline in the third quarter, agriculture and allied sector grew by 1.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2004-05. Services sector growth, after improving from 8.1 per cent in the second quarter to 8.9 per cent in the third, increased further to 9.3 per cent in the last quarter of 2004-05. As compared to the third quarter of 2004-05, mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply, construction and financial services grew at lower rates in the fourth quarter. Trade, hotels, transport and communications, and community, social and personal services grew at a higher rate in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter of 2004-05. 3. As per the 4th advance estimates, foodgrains production declined from 213.5 million tonnes in 2003-04 to 204.6 million tonnes in 2004-05. Overall, following a 9.6 per cent high growth in 2003-04, agriculture and allied sector did well to avoid a decline in growth terms, reflecting a relative small beginning in farm diversification. The growth in broad money was 12.4 per cent (net of conversion, 12.2 per cent) at end March 2005. Despite the sharp upward movement in the price situation in the first half of the financial year, the annual point-to-point WPI inflation stood at 5.05 per cent as at end March 2005. 4. Industrial growth (as per the Index of Industrial Production) at 8.2 per cent in 2004-05 as against 7.0 per cent in 2003-04 indicates a robust industrial climate. However, the growth of six core industries (mostly infrastructure) was lower at 4.4 per cent in 2004-05 as against 6.2 per cent in 2003-04. Domestic savings as a proportion of GDP at current market prices, showed an improvement from 26.1 per cent in 2002-03 to 28.1 per cent in 2003-04. Investment rate or gross domestic capital formation, as a proportion of GDP at current market prices, grew from 24.8 per cent in 2002-03 to 26.3 per cent in 2003-04. 5. Exports in dollar terms, continued their buoyancy and recorded 24.1 per cent growth in 200405 as against 21.1 per cent in 2003-04. Imports also grew at a faster p ace of 37 per cent in 2004-05 and resulted in a higher trade deficit. Foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold, SDR and Reserve Tranche Position in IMF) grew from US $107.45 billion at end-march 2004 to US$135.57 billion at end March 2005. The strength of the external sector, the resilience of the domestic real sector and robustness of the financial sector bode well for the growth momentum of the economy. Review of trends in receipts and expenditure of Government during 2004-05 6. Summarized position of the state of finances of the Government during 2004-05 is given below. Disaggregated data are given in Annexes I to VI . The receipts and expenditure figures given here are un-audited figures and may undergo revision subsequently as a result of audit. The r eceipts and recoveries, wherever directly linked to expenditures, have been netted against the expenditures.

Key fiscal aggregates (Rs in crore) 2003 -04 Gross Tax revenue 254,348 Net tax revenue 186,982 Non tax revenue 76,896 Loan recovery 67,165 Disinvestment and other non-debt capital receipts 16,953 Total non-debt receipts 347,996 Plan expenditure 122,280 Plan Revenue expenditure 78,638 Plan Capital expenditure 43,642 Non-Plan expenditure 348,988 Non-Plan Revenue expenditure 283,502 Non-Plan Capital expenditure 65,486 Total expenditure 471,268 Revenue expenditure 362,140 Capital expenditure 109,128 Revenue Deficit 98,262 Fiscal Deficit 123,272 Primary Deficit -816 Outstanding year-end liabilities including external debt at current exchange rates 18,74,757 BE 2004-05 RE 2004-05 2004-05 317,733 233,906 75,416 27,100 4,000 340,422 145,590 91,843 53,747 332,239 293,650 38,589 477,829 385,493 92,336 76,171 137,407 7,907 306,021 225,804 75,100 61,565 4,091 366,560 137,387 89,673 47,714 368,404 296,396 72,008 505,791 386,068 119,723 85,164 139,231 13,326 304,980 224,857 80,330 60,862 4,424 370,473 132,160 87,496 44,664 366,288 297,249 69,039 498,448 384,745 113,703 79,558 127,975 1,435

21,23,945

21,19,593

20,79,978

Key fiscal aggregates as per cent of Gross Domestic Product at current market prices
2003-04 BE 2004-05 (Provisional) RE 2004-05 2004-05

Revenue deficit Fiscal Deficit Primary Deficit Tax revenue Expenditure Plan Expenditure Non-Plan Expenditure Revenue expenditure

3.6 4.5 (0.0) 9.2 17.1 4.4 12.6 13.1

2.5 4.4 0.3 10.2 15.4 4.7 10.7 12.4

2.7 4.5 0.4 9.8 16.3 4.4 11.9 12.4

2.6 4.1 0.0 9.8 16.1 4.3 11.8 12.4

Capital expenditure Total liabilities including external debt at current exchange rate

4.0

3.0

3.9

3.7

67.9

68.4

68.2

67.0

7. In the financial year 2004-05, the Revenue Deficit was reduced, both in absolute terms as well as a proportion of GDP, to Rs.79,558 crore (2.6 per cent of GDP) from Rs.98,262 crore (3.6 per cent of GDP) in 2003-04. While Fiscal Deficit increased marginally to Rs.127,975 crore from Rs.123,272 crore in 2003-04, it registered a decline as a proportion of GDP from 4.5 per cent to 4.1 per cent. The Primary Deficit in 2004-05 was at a moderate level of Rs.1,435 crore compared to a Primary surplus of Rs.816 crore in 2003-04. Reflecting a moderation in the level of indebtedness of the Government, the Debt to GDP ratio declined from 67.9 per cent in 2003-04 to 67.0 per cent in 2004-05. As explained below in detail, this implies that the Government has been able to achieve the debt/deficit restraint targets set under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003. Government looks at this achievement with added satisfaction as this progress in fiscal consolidation has been made in the backdrop of difficulties arising out of inflationary pressures, which compelled the Government to offer tax concessions. Delay in passing of the Budget for 2004-05 and availability of unspent balances with the implementation agencies, however, resulted in a reduction in Budgeted Plan expenditure by about Rs.13,400 crore (although it increased by about Rs.9,900 crore vis--vis 2003-04), which more than offset the shortfall in tax revenue. Fiscal consolidation was further aided by about Rs.4,900 crore increase in non-tax revenue due to good returns on Government's financial investments in a buoyant capital market. A more detailed anal ysis of movement of various fiscal parameters in 2004-05 is given in the succeeding paragraphs. Receipts 8. About three-fourth of the total expenditure of Rs.498,448 crore in 2004-05 was financed by non-debt receipts (Rs.3,70,473 crore), and the balance (Rs.127,975 crore) through borrowed funds. Of the total non-debt receipts, tax revenues contributed 61 per cent (up from 54 per cent in 2003-04), non-tax revenues contributed 22 per cent (same as in 2003-04), and loan recoveries contributed 16 per cent (down from 19 per cent in 2003-04). Remaining 1 per cent (down from 5 per cent in 2003-04) was contributed by disinvestment proceeds and other non-debt capital receipts. Significantly, the tax financing of total expenditure increased from 40 per cent in 2003-04 to 45 per cent in 2004-05. Taxes, and in particular the direct taxes, are gaining increasing prominence in financing government expenditure. Direct taxes have shown a much higher growth rate during the last decade compared to indirect taxes. These are significant pointers to the ongoing structural changes in Central finances. Tax Revenue 9. Gross tax collection of Rs.3,04,980 crore (9.8 per cent of GDP) during 2004-05 was 20 per cent more than that in 2003-04(9.2 per cent of GDP). The improvement in the Tax to GDP ratio by 0.6 percentage points was higher than the improvement by 0.4 percentage points registered during 2003-04. However, actual gross tax revenue registered a 4 per cent shortfall vis--vis the Budget Estimates. Direct taxes have shown a much higher growth rate during the last decade than indirect taxes. Taking 1995-96 as base, Corporation Tax grew over 5 times, Income Tax grew over 3 times, Excise nearly 2.5 times and Customs over 1.5 times. In absolute terms, however, the Union Excise duties continued to be most significant tax receipt followed by Corporation Tax, Customs and Income Tax, in that order. Of the total gross tax revenue (Rs.304,980 crore) in 2004-05, Rs.78,595 crore was transferred to the States as their share in Union taxes and duties against a similar transfer of Rs.65,766 crore in 2003-04. After transferring Rs.1,528 crore to the National Calamity Contingency Fund, the net tax revenue of the Central Government was Rs.224,857 crore, compared to Rs. 186,982 crore in 2003-04. 10. The following table shows the trends under different types of tax revenue:

Collections of Tax revenue (Rs. in crore or percentage growth)

DESCRIPTION BE 2004-2005 RE 2004-2005 2004-2005 2003-2004 Year-on-year growth

Corporation Tax 88,436 83,000 83,566 63,562 31 Taxes on Income 50,929 50,929 48,312 41,379 17 Wealth Tax 145 265 149 136 10 Customs 54,250 56,250 57,655 48,629 19 Union Excise Duties 109,199 100,720 99,155 90,774 9 Service Tax 14,150 14,150 14,200 7,891 80 Other taxes 624 707 1,942 1,977 -2 Total 317,733 306,021 304,980 254,348 20 11. The Budget had assumed a growth of 25 per cent in the gross tax revenue. However, several post-budget duty concessions were effected to ease the inflationary pressures. Union Excise Duties suffered the most on this account and recorded only 9 per cent growth against 18 per cent assumed in the Budget. The year ended with a 20 per cent growth, short of the Budget target because of post-Budget concessions. Nevertheless, year-on-year growth was the highest, at least in the last decade. Non-tax revenue 12. Non-Tax Revenue during 2004-05 was Rs.80,330 crore, 6.5 per cent higher than the Budget Estimates and 4.5 per cent higher than that in 2003-04. Main contributors to Non-Tax Revenues are Interest Receipts (Rs.32,733 crore) and Dividends and Profits (Rs.22,847 crore). As a result of reduction in interest on loans to States, the interest receipts were lower than in the previous year. However, the decrease was more than offset by increases in income from dividends, telecom and petroleum receipts, and profits from special investments in the Unit Trust of India. Non-Tax Revenues have declined from 2.8 per cent of GDP in 2003-04 to 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2004-05. Non-debt capital receipts 13. The non-debt capital receipts, comprising mainly of Recoveries of Loans and Disinvestment Proceeds, have decreased from Rs.84,118 crore during 2003-2004 to Rs.65,286 crore during 2004-2005. Recovery of Loans at Rs.60,862 crore (against Rs.27,100 crore assumed in the Budget Estimates) were 9 per cent lower than the previous year's figure of Rs.67,165 crore. The enhanced receipts came in the form of pre-payment of higher cost Central loans by the States under a Debt-Swap facility offered by the Central Government to reduce the debt-service burden on State finances. Lower loan recovery vis--vis that in 200304 is due to discontinuation of the State Debt Swap Scheme on completion of the target of Rs.1,00,000 crore of loans with interest over 13 per cent. Expenditure 14. Total Central Government expenditure during 2004-05 was Rs.498,448 crore (Plan: Rs.132,160 crore; non-Plan: Rs.366,288 crore; Revenue:Rs.384,745 crore; Capital:Rs.113,703 crore) compared to Rs.477,829 crore (Plan:Rs.145,590 crore; non-Plan: Rs.332,239 crore, Revenue:Rs.385,493 crore; Capital: Rs. 92,336 crore) provided in the Budget Estimates and Rs.471,268 crore (Plan:Rs.122,280 crore; non-Plan: Rs.348,988 crore; Revenue:Rs.362,140 crore; Capital:Rs.109,128 crore) incurred during 2003-04. Compared to the previous year, total expenditure in 2004-05 grew by Rs.27,180 crore (6 per cent growth), revenue expenditure by Rs.22,605 crore (6 per cent growth), and capital expenditure by Rs.4,575 crore (4 per cent growth). 15. One feature of non-Plan capital expenditure in 2004-05 merits mention. Against Budget Estimates of Rs.27,100 crore, the actual loan recovery receipts in 2004-05 were Rs.60,862 crore, mainly due

to pre-payment of high cost loans by States under the State Debt Swap Scheme. These additional receipts were largely used by the Government to redeem Central Government securities issued to the National Small Savings Fund. The additional expenditure on redemption amounting to Rs.32,675 crore in 2004-05 was financed from additional non-debt receipts. Hence, the transaction did not affect the fiscal deficit. Similar expenditure on redemption in 2003-04 was Rs.46,211 crore. Plan Expenditure 16. Plan expenditure during 2004-2005 was Rs.1,32,160 crore, showing an increase of Rs.9,880 crore (8 per cent growth) over the previous year. Expenditure on Central Plan was Rs. 80,130 crore (previous year: Rs.71,842 crore) and that on State Plan was Rs.52,030 crore (previous year: Rs.50,438 crore). Central and State Plan break-up was as follows: Plan expenditure (Rs. in crore) BE 2004-05 Central Plan State and UT Plans Total 87,886 57,704 1,45,590 2004 -05 80,130 52,030 132,160 2003-04 71,842 50,438 122,280

17. Despite increase in the Plan expenditure over the previous year, the Budget provision was not fully utilized. Apart from the fact that a lumpsum provision of Rs.10,000 crore provided in the Budget Estimates could be apportioned only after Supplementary Appropriations were passed, a major factor for the shortfall in Plan expenditure is attributed to implementation problems in some sectors. Major shortfalls were registered in power, roads and infrastructure development. The Ministries of Human Resource Development and Rural Development could release almost the entire budget made available, and the Ministry of Railways could spend as much as Rs.8,456 crore against Rs.6,919 crore provided in the Budget initially. 18. It has been highlighted in the previous quarterly reviews that funds released to a large number of implementing agencies - State Governments, Autonomous Bodies including District level autonomous bodies - some times remain unutilized for long or get diverted for unintended purposes, or simply get parked outside Government accounts. Mere "release" of funds to an implementation agency, although shown in the Government accounts as "expenditure", is not enough. The Government has tightened the discipline in this regard. The Ministries have been advised to keep a close watch on the position of unspent balances available with the implementation agencies, and insist upon furnishing of utilization certificates for funds released earlier, wherever due under the Rules, before releasing more funds. Canons of financial propriety require that moneys should be drawn from the Government account only when imminently required for final expenditure. While the Government remains committed to provide adequate budget support for various public policy objectives, it would be increasingly difficult to countenance the tendency to cover up inability to gainfully spend by parking funds for possible future use. Non-Plan Expenditure 19. Non-Plan expenditure during 2004-05 was Rs.366,288 crore compared to Rs.348,988 crore during 2003-04. In 2003-04, Government had redeemed special securities of Rs.32,602 crore issued to the National Small Savings Fund. Expenditure (non-Plan capital) on this account in 2004-05 was Rs.32,675 crore. Interest payments (Rs.1,26,540 crore), defence expenditure (Rs.75,956 crore) and major subsidies (Rs.44,633 crore) continued to be major items of non- plan expenditure in 2004-05. Together, these accounted for 67 per cent of the total Non-Plan Expenditure. Interest payment accounted for roughly 1/3rd of the revenue expenditure and 1/4th of the total expenditure. It was 4.1 per cent of GDP, the lowest since

1995-96 due to the continuation of benign interest rate regime that has brought some relief to public finances in recent years. 20. Major savings in 2004-05 under non-Plan expenditure provided in the Budget occurred in interest payments (Rs.2,960 crore), grants to States (Rs.2,739 crore), payments to financial institutions (Rs.1,827 crore), defence services (Rs.1,044 crore) and petroleum subsidy (Rs.603 crore). Major increases over Budget Estimates occurred under the heads support to BSNL/rural telephony etc (Rs.4,221 crore); fertilizer subsidy (Rs.3,198 crore) and pensions (Rs.1,194 crore). Resources transferred to States / Union Territories 21. Funds transferred to State/UT Governments during 2004-05 were Rs.97,757 crore. This was higher by Rs.19,199 crore (24 per cent growth) than last year. This was excluding NSSF investments in State securities, which was Rs.86,412 crore. Commercial receipts and expenditure 22. Item Revenue Expenditure Receipts Net Summary position is given below:(Rs in crore) BE 2004-05 14,816 14,491 325 2004-05 14,783 12,541 2,242 BE 2003-04 2003-04 13,596 13,606 -10 13,578 13,569 9

23. Major deterioration in net deficit position (Rs.1,351 crore) was caused due to the operations of the Canteen Stores Department, where the expenditure increased from Rs.4,797 crore provided in the Budget to Rs.5,333 crore whereas its receipts declined from Rs.5,162 crore in the Budget Estimates to Rs.4,347 crore. Status of cash balances during the year 24. The Government began the year 2004-05 with a cash surplus of Rs.26,669 crore over and above the minimum cash requirement. This surplus was fully utilized till 30th April when the Government resorted to a Ways and Means Advances of Rs.245 crore. Thereafter, Government remained cash deficient till September 9. Howeve r, the trend was reversed from September 10 and the Government was able to maintain a cash surplus position till the end of the year and ended the year with a cash surplus of Rs.26,202 crore. Financing of Fiscal Deficit 25. Bulk of the fiscal deficit is being financed through direct borrowings from the open market, as a measure of fiscal discipline. After two consecutive years of negative contribution (due to pre-payment of some external loans), external assistance emerged as an important source of financing, covering about one-tenth of the fiscal deficit. Financing of Fiscal Deficit (Rs. in crore) Year Fiscal Deficit Sources of Financing Internal Debt External Assistance 102,379 12,934 165,966 -12,189 -19,398 120,006 105,009 -12,255 20,496 6,010 2,549 88,016 8,336 -124 04-05 127,975 03-04 123,272 02-03 01-02 00-01 118,815 145,072 140,954

National Small Savings Fund 8,480

State Provident Fund etc Special Deposits Other Deposits

5,357 -2,143 968

4,891 102 -16,100

4,621 9,324 2,880

4,173 8,014 15,199

4,922 7,728 9,937

Market Stabilization Scheme 26. Apart from normal market borrowing for financing the fiscal deficit, Government also raised Rs.64,211 crore (net of repayments) during 2004-05 under Market Stabilization Scheme. It is not utilized for financing the fiscal deficit. The amount is borrowed with the objective of mopping up excess liquidity from the market to assist the Reserve bank of India in monetary management and remains in the Cash Balance of the Central Government. This nevertheless adds to the liabilities of the Government, and also contributes to an increase in the fiscal deficit through increased interest burden. National Small Savings Fund 27. Collections under various small saving schemes run by the Government, which are credited into the National Small Savings Fund (NSSF), are part of the liabilities of the Government. These liabilities increased from Rs.435,242 crore as on 31st March 2004 to Rs.527,901 crore as on 31st March 2005. Bulk of these funds is invested in the Central and State Government securities (Rs.503,806 crore as on 31st March 2005.). Cumulative investment in State Government securities increased, during the same period, from Rs.215,123 crore to Rs.301,536 crore. It is a matter of satisfaction that, after registering operating deficits for several consecutive years, NSSF witnessed a turnaround in the year 2004-05 and NSSF's current income was higher than operating expenses by Rs.2,233 crore. This led to a reduction in the cumulative deficit in NSSF's income-expenditure account from Rs.12,980 crore as on 31st March 2004 to Rs.10,747 crore as on 31st March 2005. Status of total liabilities 28. Total Central Government liabilities (including external debt liability reckoned at current exchange rates) increased from Rs.18,74,757 crore on 31st March 2004 to Rs.20,79,978 crore on 31st March 2005. However, as a ratio to GDP, these declined from 67.9 per cent in 2003-04 to 67.0 per cent in 2004-05. Of the total liabilities, the liabilities to depositors of small savings schemes were Rs.435,242 crore as on 31st March 2004 and Rs.527,901 crore as on 31st March 2005. The external debt (at current exchange rates) marginally increased from Rs.184,203 crore to Rs.189,860 crore. The balance was mainly in the form of debt raised from open market. Concluding remarks 29. In the Review report at the end of the third quarter, it was noted that the Central Government finances were under stress due to the impact of post-budget duty concessions to ease inflation and certain expenditure commitments like "fertilizer subsidy" (about Rs.3,000 crore) due to increase in the cost of inputs; budgetary support to Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited for rural telephony etc (about Rs.3,000 crore); pension payments (about Rs.2,400 crore) mainly due to merger of part of Dearness Allowance in pay; National Food for Work Programme(about Rs.2,000 crore); Externally Aided Projects in States (about Rs.1,500 crore); and additional expenditure on calamity relief (about Rs.1,200 crore). Nevertheless, both the Houses of Parliament were assured that the Government had initiated a number of corrective measures and notwithstanding these setbacks, considered temporary in nature, the Government would continue to improve fiscal performance. 30. It is a matter of satisfaction that fiscal performance indeed improved in the last quarter of the last financial year. During April-Dec, 2004 the growth rate in gross tax revenue had been only 18 per cent against 25 per cent assumed in the Budget, which in turn was largely attributable to delay in passage of the Finance Act and to the post-budget duty concessions. As a result of concerted efforts made by the

Government, the year ended with a 20 per cent growth in gross tax collection, collecting almost 96 per cent of budgeted tax revenue. On expenditure side, even after absorbing the extra commitments, the overall increase in the expenditure was contained through improved expenditure management, notably as a result of efforts to reduce accretion in the build-up of unspent balances with the implementation agencies and enforcement of prescribed conditionalities. 31. The Government remains committed to elimination of revenue deficit by 2008-09 under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act and the National Common Minimum Programme. Although no fiscal correction has been contemplated in the Budget for 2005-06 for various reasons explained in the Statement presented to the Parliament along with the Budget, yet, encouraged by the actual fiscal performance in 2004-05 in the face of various odds, the Government intends to continue with its efforts to reduce the revenue deficit and effect a change in the quality of public expenditure. The Government has already initiated a number of corrective measures to tone up tax and expenditure administration, which have been spelt out in detail in the Mid-Year Review(December 2004) as well as in the Fiscal Policy Strategy Statement presented with the Budget for 2005-06. While the concerns arising out of high and volatile level of international crude prices remain , the economy demonstrates considerable resilience, and the Government's efforts at fiscal consolidation through improved tax administration and expenditure control are continuing. Click here for the Annexures