Lesson Plan Class: High School Mathematics Unit: Probability and Prediction Teacher: Kevin D.

Gilbert
Objectives

The learning goal for this lesson is to have the students understand not only how to determine the probability of a successful outcome, but also to determine how changing their choice may affect that probability. Prior to this lesson, the students should be familiar with probability and know how to calculate the probability of success for random trials. They should also understand how the likelihood of achieving a defined outcome in a given number of trials. In addition, they should also have a mastery of algebra and general mathematical practices. This lesson will emphasize the connections between probability, predictions, and statistical results by drawing on skills and techniques learned in pervious lessons and applying them to a new and unique situation. It will require them to make conjectures, test those conjectures through a hands-on set of trials and review the trial results to determine if they match their prediction.
Standards

This lesson addresses the Using Probability to Make Decisions section of Statistics & Probability in the Common Core State Standards for Math (CCSS M). The standard says that students should be able to calculate expected values and use them to solve problems and use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions. This lesson will require that the students do both.
Anticipatory Set

The instructor will describes a hypothetical game show works to the students. The students work in groups to determine a strategy for winning the game then test their strategy themselves by playing the game. For the most part, students enjoy television game shows and figuring out what mistakes the contestants have made. This activity gives them a chance to become a contestant and see how well their strategy works in real life. Each student will play the part of the game show Host or one of two Contestants while they examine their understanding of probability and predicting.

Teaching: Input

The lesson will begin with the instructor asking the students what they would do if they were on a game show. The host gives them to choose one of three doors. After making their choice, the host reveals that what is behind one of the doors they have not chosen is not the top prize. The host then gives them the opportunity to change their choice and select remaining unopened door they did not choose or to keep the door they have chosen. The students will then be divided into groups of three, or four if the number of students is not divisible by three. Each group is given a worksheet (see attached example). On the front page is a description of the problem. It also contains the questions; 1) Does this trading option affect your probability of winning the most valuable prize? If so, does trading doors increase or decrease your probability of winning? 2) If you used this technique, what would your probability be of winning the most valuable prize? While the groups are discussing the problem, the instructor should move from group to group, observing the group dynamics, monitoring their progress, and offering clarification or guidance as needed. Once all the groups have completed their determination, the instructor will as each group what they would do and what they calculated their probability of success. The instructor will record each groups answers on the board. The instructor and students should determine if one action/probability is favored over the others by the class as whole or if each group wants to stick with their decision. When this is complete, the instructor hands out a set of playing cards to each group. Each set of cards consists of all the cards in one suit, ace through king. Each group is then told to turn the paper over. On the back is written the second part of the activity and a result matrix. Above the matrix is a line that says, Our group chooses to and a space left for them to write their chosen action. There is a second line that says and the probability of success should be and another space for them to fill in their answer. The matrix has four columns and thirteen rows. The first row contains the headings Trial #, Keep, Switch, and Success? In the first column, below the heading, will be the numbers 1 through 12. Each group is told to select one person to be the game show Host, Contestant 1 who will perform the action they agreed on, and Contestant 2

Teaching: Input (continued)

who will perform the opposite of their choice. If there is a fourth person in their group, they can record the results. The host should shuffle the cards and lay three of them out, face down. These are the three doors. Contestant 1 picks one card. The Host looks at the two remaining cards and turns over the lower of the two. The remaining two cards are then revealed. If the card chosen is higher than the remaining card, a mark is made in the Keep column; otherwise a mark is made in the Switch column. A Success? is recorded when the results match the action. This is repeated until 12 trials have been conducted. Each group then determines if their prediction was correct and what the probability for success was based on the trials. Once all of the groups completed their trials and calculations, the instructor asks for each groups results and records them next to their predictions, keeping track of how many times the kept and switched cards were higher. The class should then calculate the probability of success for keeping and switching the card based on the classs combined results. The instructor should ask for comparisons between the classs results, the groups results, and the group predictions.

Teaching: Modeling

After the worksheets and card sets are passed out, the instructor will explain what the students need to complete to fill out the first side of the worksheet. When that is complete, the instructor will read through the backside of the sheet, explaining how to record their predictions. The instructor will read through the directions for playing the game show, shuffling and dealing the cards when the directions say to and clarifying how to fill out the worksheet. Once the students have begun, the instructor should move from group-togroup, answering questions and observing progress. When the Exit Sheets have been passed out, the instructor should clarify what information goes in each of the spaces provided.

Teaching: Checking for Understanding

When the activity is complete, each student should receive an exit sheet (see attached example). The Exit Sheet should contain the following questions; 1) Would this strategy work if you started with 4 doors instead of 3 and still revealed what was behind just one of the doors?

Teaching: Checking for Understanding (continued)

2) What would you expect the probability of success to be in that case? The answers given will indicate if the student understood the results of the activity and if they are able to calculate probability if the starting variables change. If a review of the exit sheets shows that most students did not understand the lesson, the instructor may have to revisit the lesson or, possibly, reteach it they determine a part of the lesson was missed or confusing to the students. If most of the students understood the lesson, the instructor may choose to work individually with the students who had difficulty.

Guided Practice

This is accomplished when the instructor is monitoring the groups when they are making their predictions and playing the game. It gives the instructor an opportunity to observe the students as they are working and provide direction if they seem to be unclear about the process or concepts.
Closure

After tallying the results the instructor should ask the students if the result was what they expected. If the discussion doesnt reveal the expected results, the instructor should explain what they are and the reason we would expect them to be that way. The following is a simplified description. Expected Results The expected results that you would win 2/3 of the time if you switched choices and 1/3 of the time if you didnt. How It Works At the time you made your selection, each door had a 1/3 chance of winning. So your choice has a 1/3 chance of success. This means the other two doors combined have a 2/3 probability of success. If you choose not to change doors, your probability for success will not change. If you could select those two cards, your probability for success is 2/3. By switching doors you are, in effect, picking these 2 cards. The only difference is that you know which one of the two is lower ahead of time.

Independent Practice

This lesson is a group activity so individual practice is not addressed.

Materials

1. Printed Worksheets, one for every three students. 2. Card sets, the thirteen cards of the same suit from a standard deck of cards. (This comes out to 1 deck of cards for every 12 students. 4 suits/deck x 1 set/suit x 1 group/set x 3 students/group = 12 students/deck). Each set should be put into a plastic sandwich bag or envelope to quicken their distribution. 3. Printed Exit Sheets, one per student.
Duration

This lesson should take no more than 45 -50 minutes, the typical time of one High School lesson period.
Concerns

The worksheet should address most of the responses or questions. I do however anticipate one potential problem with the activity. Because they will be working with a set of cards with known values, from ace to king, the two cards not chosen may be the king and queen. In that case, the host would have to turn over the queen and the contestant would know that the other card not chosen would have to be the king. However, the way the trial is set up, both contestants will always either keep their card? So, even if the queen is turned over, it will not influence the choice to switch or not.
References

Donaldson, C. (n.d.). Play gameshow probability. Retrieved from http://www.education.com/activity/article/Game_Show_Probability/

Three Doors Probability Worksheet

Group Members _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ You are a contestant on a game show. There are three doors. Behind each door are prizes of different values. You must choose one door and will receive the prize behind it. However, after you have chosen, the host opens one of the doors you didnt select to reveal a prize that is obviously not the most valuable prize. The host then gives you the option of keeping the door you selected or trading it for what is behind the door you didnt select. 1.) Does this trading option affect your probability of winning the most valuable prize? If so, does trading doors increase or decrease your probability of winning?

2.) If you used this technique, what would your probability be of winning the most valuable prize?

Our group chooses to And the probability of success should be Setup 1. Select one person from your group to be the game show Host. 2. Select another person to be Contestant 1, who will perform the action that youve decided has the greatest chance for success. 3. The third person will be Contestant 2, who will perform the opposite action of Contestant 1. (If there are a four people in your group, one person can be Contestant 2 and the other can record the trial results.) Experiment 1. The Host will shuffle the set of cards youve been given and lay three of them out, face down. These are the three doors. 2. Contestant 1 picks one card. 3. The Host will look at the two remaining cards and turn over the one with the lowest value. 4. The remaining two cards are turned over. 5. If the card chosen is a higher value than the remaining card, a mark is made in the Keep column. Contestant 1 has won! 6. If the card not chosen is a higher value, a mark is made in the Switch column. 7. Put a check mark in the Success? column if the trial result matches your prediction, otherwise, leave it blank 8. Repeated Steps 1 7 until 12 trials have been conducted. 9. Determines if your prediction matches your trial results. 10. Calculate what the probability for success is based on the trial results. Trial # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals: Keep Switch Success?

____________ 2

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Name ___________________

Exit Sheet
Please give a brief answer the following questions. 3) Would this strategy work if you started with 4 doors instead of 3 and still revealed what was behind just one of the doors?

4) What would you expect the probability of success to be in that case?