Earthquake vulnerability and risk modeling for the area of Greater Cairo, Egypt

Tanja Liesch (1), Sergey Tyagunov (3), Kamal Abdel-Rahman (2), Sherif El-Hady (2), Abuo El-Ela El Mohamed (2), Mathilde B. Soerensen (4), Lothar Stempniewski (3), Jochen Zschau (4)
(1) cedim AG, Karlsruhe, Germany; (2) National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Cairo, Egypt; (3) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), University of Karlsruhe, Germany; (4) GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Germany

A. Description of the Area

A.1 Introduction
Though the earthquake hazard in Cairo is lower than in the other test cities considered in the EU-SAFER project, the city has been chosen for a pilot study. The reasons were mainly that for the other cities, a lot of studies concerning earthquake vulnerability and risk have already been carried out, whereas for Cairo there is backlog in this case. On the other hand, Cairo poses a real challenge, especially concerning vulnerability, since the city's building stock is very heterogeneous, vulnerable, and additionally changing quite fast. During a visit to Cairo in March 2008 CEDIM and cedim AG have collected missing data concerning the administrative grid of settlements and distributions of buildings. Data of population and administrative grid were provided by NRIAG, the information about the residential building stock were collected by CEDIM and cedim AG. These data have been integrated in the Seismic Risk Explorer, with which seismic scenarios for Cairo can be carried out.

B. Description of the Method

B.1 Earthquake Vulnerability and Building Stock
In the period of the working visit to Cairo during the first half of March 2008, information about the existing residential building stock was collected. Field investigations were conducted in 43 administrative districts of Greater Cairo (including the City of Cairo, ElGiza and Shubra El-Kheima, see fig. 3) aiming at identifying representative building types in the area and assessing their seismic vulnerability. The following sources of information were used: 1. Database of collected photos of the building stock (fig. 4), showing existing building types and their distribution in different districts. 2. Database of building types (information obtained from CAPMAS Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics of Egypt), showing composition of the building stock (in terms of building material, year of construction, number of floors, property sector, etc) in different districts. 3. Google Earth satellite images, showing spatial distribution of the building stock in the area.

Fig. 1: Seismic Hazard Map, Tunisia/Libya/Egypt (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Programme,1999)

A.2 Seismic Hazard and Destructive Earthquakes

The Seismic Hazard Map of Egypt shows a peak ground acceleration (PGA), which can be expected for a site with 10 percent probability during the next 50 years up to 1.6 m/s (fig. 1). This might be comparably low, and so most of the reported earthquakes from the Nile valley have magnitudes of less than 5. However, as more than 12 million people are living in the Cairo area, many of them in poorly constructed buildings, and as strong site dependent ground motion amplifications may occur especially in the Nile Delta, the vulnerability in this region is extremely high (SAFER, 2006). Additionally, the deep alluvial Nile Valley is susceptible to shaking and liquefaction. The last two recent destructive earthquakes in Egypt occurred on 12th October 1992 (Mw = 5.3) and 22nd November 1995 (Mw = 7.2). These earthquakes caused large damage in a wide area of Egypt. Considerable damage from the October 1992 earthquake, in particular, occurred in the south western districts of Cairo as e.g. El-Tibeen (fig. 2). 370 fatalities and over 3000 injured were reported. In spite of the higher magnitude, the November 1995 earthquake, which was located in Gulf of Aqaba and especially hit Nuweiba City, caused a lower damage. Only 11 people were killed and 47 injured. These different damage locations indicate the considerable impact of the local geology, which must be taken into consideration for engineering design and construction.

Fig. 2: Damage from the 1992 earthquake in the district of El Tibeen

Fig. 3: The 43 districts of Greater Cairo, including El-Giza and Shubra El-Kheima.

Fig. 4: Some typical building structures in the area of Greater Cairo (first column, from top to down: Dar El Salam, Heliopolis, Maadi, El Marg, second column, from top to down: El Giza, Bulaq, Imbaba, Helwan).

B.2 Computing Algorithm On the base of the collected information, combining the findings of the field investigations in different districts with available statistical data about the distribution of buildings in the districts, we constructed vulnerability composition models (in terms of the vulnerability classes of the European Macroseismic Scale, EMS-98, fig. 5-7) as well as vulnerability curves (in terms of mean damage ratio versus seismic intensity) for all the considered 43 districts of Greater Cairo (show in red in fig. 8) The constructed vulnerability models have been included into the Vulnerability Module of the developed tool (DDSM) and can be used for analysis of probable damage and losses in case of occurring damaging earthquakes in the region.

B.3 Computing of Scenarios We generate a fishnet of rectangular cells (grey rectangular polygons), which are used for calculating intensity distribution from scenario earthquakes. The size of the cells can be assigned depending on the scale and the purposes of the study. For the area of Greater Cairo we use the cells of 1 km x 1 km. The intensity values are calculated for the centers of the cells with the attenuation function shown in B.4. To refine the location of built-up areas we use satellite images, showing spatial distribution of the building stock in the area (yellow polygons). Further, combining the GIS-layers of the seismic input and the building stock with the corresponding vulnerability models we calculate the damage and losses.

C. Results of the In Detail Tests

Fig. 9 (left) shows the intensity map, computed with the above mentioned attenuation function, for the historical earthquake of October, 12th 1992, with the epicentre in the south-west of the city. The intensity was computed for the shown polygons, which represent the 43 districts. Some of them have been broken down into populated and unpopulated regions. Based on the intensity map, a damage map is computed, based on especially calibrated vulnerability functions, derived from the collected building stock data. Fig. 9 (right) shows the damage map for the historical earthquake of October, 12th 1992. The map shows a significant damage in the southern districts of Cairo, especially ElHawamdia and El-Tibeen, which fits well to the observed damage in 1992, though the building stock has changed dramatically since then, which makes a calibration very difficult.
Fig. 9: Calculated intensity map (left) and damage map (right) for the historical earthquake of 12-Oct-1992.

D. Earthquake Scenarios
As one of the hypothetical scenarios, the same coordinates as in 1992 were chosen, but with a higher magnitude of Mw=7.0, which some geological studies believe to be possible, and a slightly lower depth of 18 km. Fig. 10 (left) shows the according intensity map, which implies, that some districts might be affected with intensities up to 8. The corresponding damage map (fig. 10, right) indicates, that some of the south western districts might suffer a mean damage ratio of more than 10 %. The DDSM, that has been programmed, can be used as a risk management tool, that indicates, which districts might be most affected by a possible future earthquake. Another possible application is estimation of damage for the rapid emergency response in the case of an actual earthquake. As soon as the coordinates, depth and magnitude of the earthquake are determined, the computation of the damage on residential buildings goes quick and is a good tool for estimating possible fatalities and injuries.

Fig. 6: Vulnerability curves for the classes A to D Fig. 8: Steps of Computing Scenarios

D C

B
Fig. 5: EMS-98 differentiation of structures (buildings) into vulnerability classes (Vulnerability Table). Fig. 7: Vulnerability composition for an example district of Cairo

B.4 Attenuation Function For the DDSM the following magnitude calibrated intensity attenuation relation provided by partner GFZ for Cairo has been implemented (SOERENSEN, personal communication, 2008)

R 2 + h2 I = 0.86 MW 3.01 log(h) + 5.33 1.90 log 0.0035 2 h

R 2 + h2 h

Fig. 10: Calculated intensity map (left) and damage map (right) for a hypothetical earthquake of Mw=7, D=18 km.

Acknowledgement to NRIAG, Helwan, Cairo, Egypt; Dr. Sergey Tyagunov, CEDIM Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany. .

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