Krunchh

Team Nebula

(ID:74015) International Management Institute MEMBERS: AVISHEK AGARWAL PALLAVI SOOD SHEEBA G R

METHODOLOGY

Collect Data: Macro Economic Factors, Health Development Indicators & Social Development Indicators

Calculate price of milk from the data for the two product categories Perform regression Analysis to determine the percentage of variation caused by these factors under the two categories IFM & CFM respectively Perform regression Analysis to determine the percentage of variation caused by these factors under the two categories IFM & CFM respectively Determine the significant factors by looking the p values

Calculate the Compounded Quarterly Growth(CAQG) rate of the significant factors Calculate the weighted average(W.A) of the (coefficients/slopes) of the significant factors from the summary output of the regression results Compute the final demand factors by using the following equation :CAQG of Factor 1*W.A of Factor 1 (repeated for all significant factors and then add together) Predict the final demand by multiplying with the demand factor with previous quarter growth rate)

Data Used
Consumer Price Index(CPI) Gross Domestic Production(in crores) Gross National Income per capital(Atlas Method) in current
Macro Economic Factors

US dollar

Health Expenditure Per Capita(in US Dollar) Improved Sanitation Facilities

Health Development Indicators

Child Population in the age group of less or equal to than 12 months (based on birth rate), Child Population in the age group of one to five years,
Social Development Indicators

Number of death in both the age groups mentioned based on mortality rate

FORMULAE USED
Price/kg = (Value in million*10^6) / Volume in ton*10^3) No. of live births = Birthrate * (Population/1000) No. of children in age (01)= No of live births in that corresponding year

No of children in age (15)= No of live births in 4 previous consecutive years

No of deaths in first year of life = IMR* (No of live births in that year / 1000)

Regression Equation Y=Bo+B1X1+B2X2+. (Bn= slope, Xn=Variable)

Compounded Quarterly Growth Rate ((Xn/X1)^(1/22))-1

Demand Factor Calculation (Weighted Average of coefficient for relevant factors*CQGR)

Assumptions
CAQR is Constant for the next two forecasted years

Maximum Variation is caused by the relevant factors determined by the

regression analysis Confidence Level assumed is 95 percent All the variables with p value less than or equal to five percent are considered to be significant

Findings
For IFM Category

Relevant Factors are

The Demand Factors

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) Adolescent Fertility Rates[Per thousand] Health expenditure per capita[US $] Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access

0.994534739

For CFM Category

Relevant Factors are

GDP(in crores) CPI Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access

1.001201598

Final Forecast of Demands

For IFM Category

Predicted Demand for IFM_Category in Tonnes Q3/13 9526.056199 Q4/13 9473.993814 Q1/14 9422.215965 Q2/14 9370.721094 Q3/13 9319.507657 Q4/13 9268.574115 Q1/15 9217.918937 Q2/15 9167.540603 The Demand for IFM _ Milk Category will descrease by a factor of .0054(1-.99453) % in every quarter consequtively
Predicted Demand For CFM Category_ In Tonnes Q3/13 7855.304 Q4/13 7864.743 Q1/14 7874.193 Q2/14 7883.654 Q3/13 7893.127 Q4/13 7902.612 Q1/15 7912.108 Q2/15 7921.615

For CFM Category

The demand for CFM_Milk Category is expected to increase in the next two year.

References
Worldbank.org http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/birth_rat http://www.indiastat.com/searchresult.aspx http://www.indiastat.com/economy/8/indices/132/inflation/32561/stats.aspx http://www.indiastat.com/health/16/vitalstatistics/291/infantmortalityrate/17794/stats.as px http://www.indiastat.com/health/16/birthrate/17791/crudebirthrate19012025/514212/sta ts.aspx http://www.indiastat.com/health/16/others/17832/birthratedeathratenaturalgrowthratean dinfantmortalityrate19012025/452297/stats.aspx