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special story

epaper.dnaindia.com

Mumbai, Mon, May 7, 2007

MEGAPOLIS
on shaky ground
The Bureau of Indian Standards, which lays down seismicity standards, is seriously considering an IIT-Bombay doctorate students thesis on earthquake susceptibility of peninsular India. Seemaa Kamdar says the BIS committee may upgrade the regions codes according to the new data, and goes on to explain what this means for Mumbai
he IIT-Bombay study, which upped Mumbais hazard ante, is now up for peer review. In February, DNA was the first to report the conclusion of a doctorate students thesis that the seismicity the frequency, intensity, and distribution of earthquakes in a given area of the megapolis is much higher than what was established by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The study, conducted over a period of five years by researcher Kishor Jaiswal and Professor Ravi Sinha of the department of civil engineering at IIT-Bombay, has now been published in the February issue of the prestigious Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. With its focus on determining the earthquake susceptibility of peninsular India parts of southern and most of central and western India the research has pinned a higher hazard potential for Mumbai. The study talks of higher quake forces for the city and some parts of Gujarat for the first time. Loosely speaking, this means upgrading Mumbais earthquake susceptibility from Zone III to Zone IV though the zoning system while also taking other factors into account. The study stresses that structural designs need to be ready for upgradation, though there is some good news for the citys conscientious builders; all the Transfer of Development Rights and merciless load on the citys finite real estate has not contributed to its higher hazard potential. Professor Sinha dismisses the connection between the citys higher seismicity and its seamless high rises. In a categorical conclusion, the study states that the seismic hazard for different regions of peninsular India, clearly indicates higher levels of hazard for most of the rifting zones. Rifting zones being the areas most prone to earthquakes, the study essentially seeks to scale up the seismicity standards for high-risk regions in these parts of the country. The BIS is currently studying the report, Sinha says, and its committee that lays down seismicity standards, could well upgrade or alter the regions codes according to the new data made available. Though one of the most stable landmasses of the Indian plate, peninsular India (10 to 28 degrees North; 68 to 90 degrees East) has had four damaging earthquakes in the recent past - Koyna (1967), Latur (1993), Jabalpur (1997) and Bhuj

Rumbling noises
The researchers have scaled up the quake force grading for Koyna and parts of Gujarat. Quake forces are measured in peak ground acceleration (PGA). Mumbai with a PGA level of 0.16g (that is 16% of acceleration due to gravity) is recommended a higher quake force of 0.24g. For parts of the Koyna region, a higher quake force corresponding to 0.36g instead of 0.24g is recommended.

high hazard

(2001). The occurrence of these large earthquakes, says the study, have demonstrated that an urgent need exists to make comprehensive efforts to delineate active source zones in peninsular India. The seismic zoning maps prepared by BIS have been primarily based on historical information, represented by an epicentral map. Using the zoneless approach for seismic hazard estimation, which is also used by the US, the study finds, the design parameters in the Indian standards may significantly underestimate the seismic hazard in some regions of peninsular India. The zoneless approach is useful in instances where the understanding of tectonic settings referring to the forces or conditions within the earth that cause movements of the crust of a region is poor, the study explains. Exploring the feared link between dams and quakes, the study says that large reservoirs could compound the seismicity measure of the area, but the overall increase in seismicity after the 1960s, is not just due to reservoirs but also to the numerous moderate earthquakes that occurred in the Rann of Kutch region, southern craton, or eastern and western passive margins. A craton is a geological feature indicative of the areas seismicity. Sinha says, Before the Koyna dam, the area was not prone to huge tremors. This led to the belief that dams caused earthquakes. Weve shown that dams cannot cause quakes, but may trigger one if there is an existing propensity. The quake triggered by a dam may not be such a bad thing, he contends, as it could possibly thwart another one in the future. Noting that for the large, quiet portions
THE WOCKHARDT Peadiatric & Congenital Heart Centre is organising a Heart Consultation Week for children suffering from heart disease from May 7 to 12 at Wockhardt Hospitals, Mulund Goregaon Link Road, Mulund (West). For bookings and registration call 67994549 CROSSWORD IS organising a unique children's festival titled Indian Summer till May 13 at all Mumbai stores. ALPHA THERAPY Centre is conducting a seminar on all speech disorders and psychological problems till May 7 at Chembur between 11am and 1pm. INSTITUTO ESPAN NA is conducting a free crash course is Spanish till May 7 at Chembur. For details call 25546403, 9820559486 THE SPEAKER'S Club invites all who are interested in public speaking to debate on any topic of their choice at Tea Centre, Resham Bhuvan, Churchgate, on May 8 from 6:30 pm. For details and registration call Sachin Kamath on 9869130115 HEALTH EDUCATION Library for People and Johnson & Johnson offers free on-the-spot testing for blood sugar every Monday, Wednesday & Friday in the month of May, from noon to 6 pm, at Health Education Library for People, Business Center, 206, Dr. D N Road, Wallace Street, Fort. YOGA VIDYA Niketan will be conducting the 34 Yog summer course 2007 for positive health and positive development .Call 9820612684/9322333789 COUNSELLING AND stress management helpline for women helping them deal with work related stress and marital issues. Call 9869149169. DALE CARNEGIE Training will be conducting Gen Next Program on May 12 and13 from 9.30 am to 5 30 pm at 1, Construction House,Ballard Estate. ORIENTAL L ART'S and Craft Gramodyog Society has organised an exhibition of Handicraft Furniture at Khetan Hall , Thane (W) till May 13 from 11 am to 9 pm. Call: 9967057525 . THE BOMBAY YMCA Borivili Centre will be organising its Summer Outstation Camp to Camp Lakeside Nilshi, Pune, for Children in the age group of 7 to 16 years from May 19 to 23. To enroll call Mr. Allen Kotian 9867543253/28919192/28944686.

Illustration: Mahesh Benkar

of peninsular India, there was no information about earthquake history, the study conjectures that this can be owed to the sparse instrumental network available. For many of these quieter areas, says Sinha, it is possible that very large events happened, but because of the volatility of political regimes in those days, the records could have gotten lost. Therefore, the absence of data for this period is not sufficient to accord lower zoning to a region or to assume they are safe, he argues.

The four biggies that shook the country

Koyna (Maharashtra):
At 4.20am on December 11, 1967, a mega-tremor measuring 7.5 on Richter scale shook parts of western Maharashtra. With its epicentre within 5km of the Koyna dam, the quake flattened much of the Koynanagar township near the dam, killing around 200 people and rendering several homeless. The impact was felt up to a distance of 700km from the epicentre. Prior to the construction of the dam, the area around Koyna was considered to be seismically stable.

Jabalpur (MP): On May 22,

1997, thousands were injured and 48 people were killed in the aftermath of this tremor, measuring 6 on Richter scale. The quake caused widespread devastation in and around Jabalpur.

Bhuj (Gujarat): With a magnitude of 7.9, this king-sized quake made life a living hell for most of those who managed to survive. On January 26, 2001, at

The feared link

Exploring the feared link between dams and quakes, the study says that large reservoirs could compound the seismicity measure of the area, but the overall increase in seismicity after the 1960s, is not just due to reservoirs but also to the numerous moderate earthquakes that occurred in the Rann of Kutch region, southern craton, or eastern and western passive margins
HANDS IN Clay, a beginners workshop in pottery by Zareen R Mistry, is being organised at Bilmat Zeramicz, 73 Nagindad Master Road, Fort. For details call 22562091/22653310 FAST FORWARD is conducting special dancing workshop sessions for Jive, Salsa and Foxtrot at Mulund, Bandra, Lokhandwala and Powai. For details contact Saby 9833531312, Daryl - 9821514044. CAMLIN BAL Jallosh offers an opportunity for children to explore their own creative streaks. The workshop will be held at Sion from May 8 to 10. For details call 24095684, 21639046 SOHAM SPIRITUAL Solutions is conducting workshops on intuition development, healing and meditations through cosmic guidance, at Malad from May 5. For registrations contact 9850090230.

8.46 am, 19,727 people lost their lives, 1.66 lakh were seriously wounded, 3.48 lakh homes were destroyed and 8.44 lakh homes damaged when the earth reverberated loudly underneath Lodi, about 20 km from Bhuj. The economic losses caused by this quake are conservatively placed at $1.3 billion. Around 16 million people are believed to have been affected directly or indirectly by this quake.

Latur (Maharashtra):

With its epicentre near Killari, in a region regarded as aseismic, this earthquake of magnitude of 6.3 tore Indias understanding of seismicity asunder. It rumbled at 3.56am on September 30, 1993, leading to an official death toll of 7,601 in Maharashtra, with nine people killed in Karnataka. Over 16,000 people were injured and 30,000 houses were destroyed.

A Bhuj earthquake victim amid the rubble Sherwin Crasto.DNA

e ngagements...

THE INSTITUTE of Contemporary Indian Art will exhibit Ten Days in Aurangabad, a collection of paintings by Indian and British artists, from May 7 to 12, from 11 am to 7 pm, at the ICIA Building, 22/26 K Dubhash Marg, Kala Ghoda. For details call 22048138/39 GALLERIE LEELA presents ''Floating Forms'', an exhibition of paintings by Vishnu Sonavane at the Leela Kempinski, till May 10 between 12 noon and 9 pm INDIAA.NET PRESENTS the creative paintings of Anil Naik, Sadhana Raddi, Vijay Achrekar and Vipta Kapadia till May 11 at The Art Hub, Marol Maroshi Road, Andhei (East). For details contact 9833352669 ART DESH - The Studio presents intricate works of Ulhas Raikar till May 12, from 11 am to 7 pm, at 1st Floor, 68, Film Centre, Tardeo Road. For details call 23521331/ 9820985535 THE NEHRU Centre Circular Gallery is exhibiting paintings by Pramod Thakur, Suresh Parihar and Kawita Thakur till May 7, between 11 am and 7 pm CONNECTION PAINTIN NGS by Girija Mirchandani will be displayed at Lansdowne Gallery, Colaba from 11 am to 7 pm. The show will be on till May 11. AN EXHIBITION of abstract work by Ritesh Meshram will be held till May 11 at the Bandra-Kurla Complex. Call 67041402 for details. STUDIO RAGINI presents an exhibition of the artists Zeenab Rangoonwala till May 20 at 27, Avijah Building, No. 16, Jambulwadi, Dhobi Talao. For details, contact 22032641. KOHINOOR CONTINENTAL Art Gallery presents an exhibition of Ganesha paintings by Vijay Nyalpelly till May 15. For details call 9324671650/ 66919000/ 28209999 GALLERIA PRESENTS works by Rini Dhumal, Shiva Prasanna and others till May 31 from 10 am to 6.30 pm at Poonam Apartment, D-block, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Worli. For details call 24952005/24975367.

NAMITA A HAS organised a workshop on creative painting/ oil/ charcoal, glass painting at Oshiwara, Andheri .Contact 9833035517/26317527 SHREEKANT MALUSHTE'S Snap academy will be conducting a photography training workshop till May 8 from 10am to 4.30pm at Dadar. For details call 26365214, 24308299 THE GUITAR Society is conducting guitar sessions for beginners at Andheri, Thane, Vashi and Borivali by Pravesh Charles Norona. For further information call 32920883/9323069985 MUMBAI FILM Academy is conducting acting and performance training program along with training in dialogue delivery, voice modulation and Hindi and Urdu diction. The programme is being conducted at Filmcity Road, Goregaon (East). Call 9867726767 for registration ACADEMY OF Air Rifle Shooting is organising one month course in Air Rifle Shooting at Swami Vivekanand High School, Kurla from May 5. For further details please contact on 9820368651, 9892195787 BHOR ADITYA is conducting a Reiki part 1 & 2 workshop at Andheri on the May 12 & 13. For registration & details call Mrs Prema Kumar on 0250-6522324. THE ART Furniture Company will be exhibiting new range of children's room accessories at the Kitab Mahal, 4th Floor, Fort from 11 am to 7pm. Tel : 22071771 / 9119 HEALTH & HEALING, Beauty & Skincare will be conducting a workshop for regaining health & preventing future problems on Saturdays 4 pm. at Pali rd, Bandra (W). Call: 9820757092.

High tide: 01:57 am 3.48 m 3:06 pm 4.14 m 8:01 am 0.83 m 9:03 pm 2.04 m Forecast: Partly cloudy skies. Maximum temperature will be around 34 deg C.

t ide...

t ravel schedule...
Ahmedabad Saurashtra Exp. (9215), 7:55 AM ,Kutch Exp. (9031), 5:10 PM , Lok Shakti Exp. (9143), 7:35 PM , Aravali Exp. (9007), 9:00 PM . Bangalore Udayan Exp. (6529), 8:05 AM , Chalukya Exp. (1017), 10:45 PM, (Expt 2). Chennai CST Chennai Exp. (6011/12), 2:00 PM , Chennai Exp. (2163/64), 8:30 PM , Chennai Mail (6009/10), 11:35 PM . Delhi Swaraj Exp. (2471), 6:45 AM (1,4,5,7), Paschim Exp. (2925), 11:35 AM , Mangala Exp.(2617), 2:30 PM , Punjab Mail (2137), 7:10 PM , Dehradun Exp.(9019), 10:25 PM , Amritsar Exp. (1057), 11:45 PM . Hyderabad Hyderabad Exp.(7031/32), 12:45 PM , Hussain Sgr. Exp. (7001/02), 9:55 PM . Indore Pune-Indore Exp. (9311) 6:15 PM, (2,5), Avantika Exp.(2961), 7:05 PM . Kochi Netravati Exp.(6345) 11:40 AM , Trivandrum Exp. (6331) 12:05 PM (1), Kanyakumari Exp. (1081), 3:45 PM . Kolkata Gitanjali Exp. (2859/60), 6:00 AM , Howrah Mail (2809), 8:35 PM , Jnaneswari Dlx.Exp. (2101/02), 8:35 PM (1,2,5,6), Calcutta Mail (2322) 9:25 PM , Howrah Exp.(8029/30), 9:50 PM . Madgaon Mandavi Exp.(103), 6:55 AM , Netravati Exp. (6345), 11:40 AM , Konkan Kanya Exp. (111), 11:00 PM . Air Deccan: 11:10 AM , 11:45 AM , 04:50 PM . I A: 06:00 AM , 07:00 AM , 08:00 AM , 09:00 AM , 10:00 AM , 12:25 PM , 01:00 PM , 05:00 PM , 06:00PM , 07:00 PM , 08:45 PM . Jet Airways: 05:55 AM , 07:00 AM , 08:05 AM , 09:25 AM , 11:00 AM , 01:50 PM , 03:55 PM , 05:20 PM , 05:50 PM , 06:55 PM , 10:30 PM . Kingfisher Airlines: 06:25 AM , 8:50 AM , 03:45 PM , 09:05 PM . GoAir: 07:10 AM ,08:20 PM Kolkata Air Sahara: 07:30 AM , 10:00 AM , 08:15 PM . Air Deccan: 06:20 AM . I A: 06:10 AM , 06:55 AM , 07:30 PM . Jet Airways: 06:50 AM , 07:50 AM , 10:10 AM , 04:40 PM , 07:05 PM .

7-05-2007 (Monday) Shri Vikram Samvat 2064, Sake Era 1929, Sun Uttrayan, Uttar Gole, Basant Ritu, Prathma Jyesth Krishna Paksha Panchami till 10.44 pm, Nakshatra Purvasadha whole time. Yoga Siddh till 12.54pm, Karan Kaulav till 10.29 am and after that Taitil till 10.44 pm, and Gar starts. Rahu Kala time- 7.30 am to 9.00am, Yam Ganda time 10.30 am to 12.00 pm Best Period- 9.00 am to 10.30 am & 1.30 pm to 3.30 pm

a lmanac...

Pandit Vijay Tripathi

HAM SA Yoga is conducting a four week Taoist Yoga & Chi Kung workshop for health, rejuvenation, longevity & healing. For reservations call Mr. Kumar at 02506522324. MANCH IS conducting a two-month acting workshop with live stage performance on June 15 at Deenanath Mangeshkar Hall at Filmcity Road, Goregaon. Contact 9867726767 for registration RACHANA ARTS & Crafts will be conducting a workshop on drawing, painting & mix media at Malabar Hill. Contact Rachana 98205 65486 DISHA INSTITUTE is conducting Hobby workshops at Andheri (West) for utilizing your summer vacation. For registration and enquiry contact Shruti Mohite on 9819965661/9833449683. MIND CONTROL Workshop: Get rid of tensions, fears, inferiority complex and hyperacidity by magic of positive thinking. For details call: 9820869565. PRAYAAS THEATRE is organising a two-month acting course that will cover various approaches to the craft of acting including character, script analysis and taking and incorporating direction. For details contact 9221250009.

NEHRU CENTRE Art Gallery presents a solo art exhibition of paintings by Purnendu Mandal, titled Feelings 2, till May 7, between 11 am and 7 pm. BOMBAY ART Gallery presents Maverick of Inert, a collection of paintings by Yashwant Deshmukh, till May 8 from 11 am to 7 pm at Shridharani Gallery, Malabar Hill. For details contact 2367 5254/2363 9033. NITAI GAURA'S Art gallery presents an art exhibition of knife paintings by Joti Patil till May 10 from 11am to 8pm at Nitai Gaura's Art Gallery, 20, Rameshwar, Neelkanth Heights, Thane(West). For details call 25857484/9820257297 NANDAN - The Art Paradise is organising am exhibition of paintings by Milanendu Mondal, Jyotirmoy and Swapam Roy till May 12 between 11 am and 6 pm, at 2/8 Rajendra Park, Station Road, Goregaon (West). For details call 28732083. THE YASH Birla Group will be showcasing Spandan 2, the Vibration, an art festival displaying works of artists like Akbar Padamsee, Arzan Khambatta and Jitish Kallat, till May 10 from 11 am to 7 pm at Articullate, Yantra Annexe, Fort. STUDIO NAPEAN and Apparao Galleries will present the recent works of Manish Nai till May 10 from 10.30 am to 8.00 pm ARTDESH - The Studio presents the intricate works of Ulhas Raikar till May 12 at Art Desh - The Studio, 1st Floor, 68, Film Centre, Tardeo Road. For details call 23521331/ 9820985535

PAINTING WORKSHOP by Art Corner at Andheri (W). Learn oil, acrylic, charcoal paintings and a unique opportunity to exhibit your paintings. For more details contact Neeta Pathare: 9820550353 Viren Shah: 9820380065 LEARN TRADITIONAL steps of dandia garba in 7 days for girls and ladies at Parel village, Tata colony. Special batch on Saturday's for college and office goers. Call Ms Mehta 2415-6964 SRI RAMAKRISHNA Institute will hold a skill building workshop on global best practices in effective recruitment for HR & line managers on May 9 and 10 at Citizen Hotel. Call 9967137000/9867963020. BHARATIYA VIDYA Bhavan Kala Kendra is organising a summer workshop for children aged 4-14 till May 26. For details contact 9820298361/65058833 MIND TRAINER Workshop is a hypnotic workshop for mind trainers being arranged at Dadar till May 10. Those who want to learn alpha trance induction are welcome to the workshop. For details call9819747687/ 9821347816.

VYAKTI VIKAS Kendra is organizing Art of Living Part-I course from May 7 to 12 at Punarvas, S V Road, Goregaon (West). For registration & further information call 9821049928/9867550117 MODERN ART Foundation will organise a workshop for all age groups in pencil sketching, fine art, drawing and painting in oil, acrylic and water colours at Malad. For details contact 28622699/9819549592 WORKSHOP ON Creative Cooking for Teenagers, learn creative and quick 30 dishes in 3-day workshop from 2 pm to 5 pm. Call Manisha 9820161832. A CERTIFICATE course in Aromatherapy for therapeutic purposes including ageing & stress related problems will be conducted at SNDT Juhu campus till May 7 from 09.30 am to 1.30 pm. Call Dr. Anjana Agarwal- 9323814480 /28345336 PRATIMA INFO is conducting Film study Courses in Cinematography, Film Making & Direction near Royal Challenge, Filmcity Road, Goregaon for 4-6 months. Contact: 9867726767 for details.

THE BROWN Indian Band performs at the Lotus Caf from 8 pm SP PATZ ENSEMBLE performs at the Crystal Lounge from 7 pm

BILMAT ZERAMICZ will host Versatile Vessels from Varanasi, an exhibition of the works by Keshri Nandan Prasad till June 30 at The Ceramic Art Gallery, 73 Nagindad Master Road, Fort. For details call 22562091/22653310

THE ACRES Club in Chembur is organising its annual Hungama "Summer Masti", a summer camp from May 7 and will be of 2 weeks duration Age Groups 4 to 9 and 9 to 14. For details and registration call on 2522 2731 or 9920341888

Bangalore Air Sahara: 06:20 AM , 01:20 PM , 06:30 PM . Air Deccan: 11:30 AM , 04:05 PM , 04:45 PM . Go Air : 07:20AM , 05:10PM I A: 06:15 AM , 09:30 AM , 05:30 PM , 08:30 PM . Jet Airways: 03:00 AM , 10:20 AM , 02:00 PM , 03:50 PM , 05:40 PM , 06:10 PM . Kingfisher Airlines: 06:30 AM , 11:00 AM , 06:40 PM . Chennai Air Sahara: 07:20 AM , 07:10 PM. Air Deccan: 12:40 PM , 01:15 PM . I A: 07:05 AM , 09:20 AM , 06:00 PM , 08:30 PM . Jet Airways: 06:45 AM , 09:00 AM , 11:05 AM , 03:20 PM , 05:30 PM , 07:50 PM . Kingfisher Airlines: 11:45 AM , 08:30 PM . Go Air: 03:00PM , 09:00PM .Delhi Air Sahara: 06:50 AM , 07:20 AM , 09:35 AM , 03:35 PM , 05:45 PM , 07:10 PM , 08:35 PM , 10:50 PM .

Amsterdam KLM/Northwest: 5:00 AM Dubai Emirates: 4:15 AM, 7:00 PM Air India: 2:45 AM (1,4,6), 8:05 AM (2), 4:00 AM and 4:40 PM (3), 5:30 PM , 3:30 AM (3), 6:00 AM (1,4,6), 3:55 PM (3). Frankfurt Lufthansa: 3:25 AM Air India: 2:40 AM (2,5,7), 7:45 AM (1,4,6), 8:05 AM (Expt 7). London British Airways: 2:15 AM Air India: 3:15 AM (Expt 4,6), 7:10 AM , 12:05 AM (1), 12:45 PM (6), 1:50 PM (2). New York Delta Airlines: (via Paris) 1:55 AM Air India: 3:15 AM (Expt 4,6), 7:10 AM (via London) (4,6), 7:45 AM . Tel Aviv El Al Israel :10:50 PM (2,5). Tokyo Air India: 3:20 PM (2,5); 6:30 PM (3,6). -Indicates daily departures. Figures in brackets indicate the days of the week, where 1 is Monday.

INTERNATIONAL Air India: 254289999/ 1800227722/28318666 British Airways: 98925 77470; 16001 21213 (Toll-Free) Lufthansa: 5630 1933/40 Emirates: 2879 7979 Delta Airlines: 2826 7000; 2682 9390/93 El Al Isreal: 2215 4701, 2215 3256/57 KLM/Northwest: 1600114777, 2682 8610/11 DOMESTIC Air Deccan: 98925 77008 Indian Airlines: 2616 8000; 1400/1407 (Toll-Free) Jet Airways: 2615 6666/ 6111; 2287 5091-93 Sahara Airlines: 2283 6000; 5698 1111; 5637 4101-04; 2283 6000 GoAir (MTNLBSNL) 1800 222 111 (Others) 09223 222 111