Textbook Update March 27, 2013

Required Reading: Bijan Raphael, Statistics for Economics, Management & Business, 8th Edition The required textbook is solely available at the UCLA Lu Valle Commons Bookstore. There are plenty of copies available on the shelf as of Friday 3/15/2013. Store hours are: For 3/25 to 3/31/2013 o Monday through Thursday 8:30 am to 5:00 pm o Friday 3/29 Closed o Saturday 10:00 am to 4:00 pm o Sunday 3/31 Closed For 4/01 to 4/07/2013 o Monday through Thursday 7:30 am to 8:00 pm o Friday 7:30 am to 5:30 pm o Saturday 10:00 am to 4:00 pm o Sunday Closed For directions and other services, please call the bookstore @ 310.825.7238.

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COURSE SYLLABUS & OUTLINE Reg. # Z0631

Course Title: Course #: Quarter: Instructor: Business Statistics X115 Spring 2013

Bijan Raphael, Ph.D., 310.367.1222 (Mobile) DrBijan@att.net

Tuesdays April 2 to June 18, 2013, 6:30 - 9:45 pm School of Pubic Affairs Bldg. 2278 By appointment

Meeting Times: Location: Office Hours:

Course Description: This course explores the elements of probability, probability distributions, estimation and confidence intervals, tests of significance and hypotheses, linear regression and correlation, time-series analysis, and principles of index numbers. Applications to the analysis and decision-making aspects of daily business problems also are covered. Goals & Objectives: 1. 2. 3. 4. Demonstrate skills in statistics; Apply statistics to practical problems in business and economics; Identify and apply methods to solve statistical problems in business; Make executive decisions in business using statistics.

Required Reading: Bijan Raphael, Statistics for Economics, Management & Business, 8th Edition
The book is solely available at the Lu Valle Commons Bookstore, UCLA For the store hours and directions, please contact the bookstore @ 310-825-7238

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Grading: Course grades will be based on attendance, class participation, timely completion of regular & advanced assignments and two examinations as follows:

Item
12 sessions attendance: 1 point per class session 11 regular assignments: 1.5 points per assignment 4 advanced assignments: 1.5 point per assignment Take-home mid-term examination due on May 14, 2013 In-class final examination on June 18, 2013

Points
12 16.5 6 23.5 42

Total

100

Important notes: Students are expected to attend all classes, complete all assignments in a timely manner, participate actively in class discussions and lectures, and take all tests and exams. Students will be divided into groups/teams of 3-4 students. Please follow the following rules: All students must participate in and contribute to their group/team; Please prepare one solution to assignments/projects/take home exam per group/team; Please submit identical copies of the solution equal to number of students in the team; Please no late assignments; Please identify your group number and names; Please provide legible handwritten or typewritten and organized solutions; Please staple each copy separately (if more than 1 page) and clip all the papers together; Please have your groups papers completely ready prior to the beginning of each class. Please note that ALL COURSE GRADES ARE FINAL. Incompletes are discouraged, however:
An instructor has the authority to grant a student an Incomplete if the student has attended class regularly, but is unable to hand in the final project on the specified date due to good cause (e.g. illness or other serious problem, business related travel, or an accident). This means that the student must complete the missing work on his or her own without further instruction. It is the student's responsibility to discuss with the instructor prior to the end of the quarter the possibility of receiving an "I" grade as opposed to a non-passing grade. The student must complete the requirements of the course within the next quarter, or three months from the last day of class. If the Incomplete is not cleared within that time, the Incomplete becomes a grade of F. The course must be repeated from the beginning. Instructors are discouraged from meeting with students on a private basis to finish Incompletes. Students cannot attend the same class in another quarter to make up an Incomplete as a nonpaying auditor. If the student requires instruction to remove the Incomplete, the course must be repeated. This means a new registration and payment of the course fee. The student has the responsibility for arranging to finish the Incomplete with the instructor before the end of the quarter in which the class is taken. The instructor will determine when and where the late work is to be turned in. At the time the late work is handed in, the student must give the instructor a form addressed to the grading department stating the grade change with a copy for the students records, including a stamped envelope. Projects turned in to satisfy an Incomplete will be downgraded one full grade if the student is simply asking for an extension. However, in case of a good cause the student will not be penalized.

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COURSE OUTLINE

Week / Date

Assignments Due Dates

Assignments

Chapter Reading Subject / Topic Chapters 1 & 2 Preliminaries & Definitions Chapter 3 Data Collection & Presentation Chapter 4 Central Tendency, Dispersion & Skewness Chapter 5 Probability Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distribution Chapter 7 Continuous Probability Distribution Chapter 8 Central Limit Theorem Chapter 9 Point & Interval Estimation Chapter 10 Test of Hypothesis Chapter 10 Test of Hypothesis Chapter 11

Important Dates

Week One 04/02 Week Two 04/09 Week Three 04/16 Week Four 04/23 Week Five 04/30 Week Six 05/07 Week Seven 05/14 Week Eight 05/21 Week Nine 05/28 Week Ten 06/04 Week Eleven 06/11 Week Twelve 06/18
Assignment # 1 # 13, 16, 18 Chapter 1 Page 17 # 8, 9, 11 Chapter 2 Page 31 # 7, 8, 16 Chapter 3 Pages 53-5 # 9, 10, 20 Chapter 4 Pages 90-1 # 11, 12, 17 Chapter 5 Pages 116 # 16, 22, 23 Chapter 6 Pages 142-3 # 16, 17, 22 Chapter 7 Page 171-2 # 5, 6 Chapter 8 Page 198 # 22, 30, 31 Chapter 9 Pages 223-5 # 49, 50, 51 Chapter 10 Pages 285 # 17, 22, 23 Chapter 11 Page 306-9

Assignment # 2 Assignment # 3 Advanced # 1 Assignment # 4 Assignment # 5 Advanced # 2 Assignment # 6

Final Refund

Midterm Exam Hand out Midterm Exam Due Date

Assignment # 7 Assignment # 8 Advanced # 3 Assignment # 9

Assignment # 10

Evaluation Regression Analysis Review (1st Hour) Final Exam

Assignment # 11

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Copyright
Dear Student: Reproduction of copyrighted material without prior permission of the copyright owner, particularly in an educational setting, is an issue of concern for the academic community. Unfortunately, the impropriety of much unauthorized copying is all too often overlooked by users in an educational setting. Although copying all or part of a work without obtaining permission may appear to be an easy and convenient solution to an immediate problem, such unauthorized copying can frequently violate the rights of the author or publisher of the copyrighted work, and be directly contrary to the academic mission to teach respect for ideas and the intellectual property that expresses those ideas. With that in mind, UCLA Academic Publishing has sought permission and will pay property royalties for the materials enclosed. The price of your reader reflects those necessary costs.

Any reproduction of the enclosed materials is illegal under copyright law.

This material comes from Questions and Answers on Copyright for the Campus Community, 1993 by National Association of College Stores, Inc., and the Association of American Publishers.

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Business Statistics X115 Advanced Assignment # 1 (1.50 points) Group # Last name: First name:

Dr. Bijan Raphael

Full Participation? Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

Summation Expressions - Calculate the following summation expressions:

10

1)

i
i =1 100

2)

i
i =1

1, 000

3)

i
i =1
10 , 000

4)

i
i =1 100, 000

5)

i =1

1, 000, 000

6)

i =1

7) Etc. Can you find a pattern in the above sums of the numbers? If so, explain the pattern. Can you generalize the pattern to the sums of numbers if the upper summation indices were 101, 1,001, 10,001, 100,001, 1,000,001, etc.?

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Business Statistics X115 Advanced Assignment # 2 (1.50 points) Group # Last name: First name:

Dr. Bijan Raphael

Full Participation? Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

Calculate the odds and probabilities. How to Play: Pick five numbers from 1 to 47 and a MEGA number from 1 to 27. Match All 5 of 5 & Mega All 5 of 5 & No Mega Any 4 of 5 & Mega Any 4 of 5 & No Mega Any 3 of 5 & Mega Any 3 of 5 & No Mega Any 2 of 5 & Mega Any 1 of 5 & Mega None of 5 & Mega Overall odds of winning Combination / Permutation formulas to calculate odds: 1 in Odds: 1 in Probability

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Business Statistics X115 Advanced Assignment # 3 (1.50 points) Group # Last name: First name:

Dr. Bijan Raphael

Full Participation? Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

Define Central Limit Theorem and demonstrate how it works using an example. In your example use five different sample sizes to arrive at five different sampling distributions of sample means. Calculate mean and standard deviation of each sampling distribution of sample means. Use these five pairs of population means and population standard deviations to make a general statement about mean and standard deviation of sampling distribution of sample means.

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Business Statistics X115 Advanced Assignment # 4 (1.50 points) Group # Last name: First name:

Dr. Bijan Raphael

Full Participation? Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

Applied Statistics: Devise a statistical real life problem based on your professional experiences. Solve it utilizing the tools and techniques you have learned in this course. Grades will be based on the originality, creativity and substance of the project.

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Test yourself: Before We Begin 1) Simple mathematical problem Students are expected to solve with ease: The sum of squares of 3 integers is equal to 77. Determine all possible solutions. 2) Moderate mathematical puzzle Students are expected to solve with effort: Consider the following puzzle: The names of three CEOs of the Fortune 500 companies are listed randomly in the left column, and the names of their Presidents are listed randomly in the right column. The reader is asked to randomly match each CEO with the President. a. Determine the number of all possible random matches. b. If each column had five names, determine the number of all possible matches now. c. Can you find a pattern or a formula to generalize the concept to n names? 3) Simple statistical definitions Students are not expected to know. You can find the definitions in this book (Chapter 2) or by searching the Internet: Define the statistical population and sample. 4) Moderate statistical problem Students are not expected to know. You can solve the problem by learning chapter 4 of this book: Consider the following grouped data frequency distribution where xi is the i th observation and f i is the i th frequency:
xi
x1 = 1 x2 = 2 x3 = 3
x4 = 4

fi
f1 = 1 f2 = 3 f3 = 7
f4 = 3

x5 = 5 Sum

f5 = 1

a. b. c. d. e. f.

Calculate the mean, the median and the mode. Calculate the geometric and the harmonic means. Graph the frequency distribution. Calculate the variance, the standard deviation and the mean deviation. Calculate the Pearsons and the Software coefficients of skewness. Calculate the 55th percentile, the 3rd quartile and the 8th decile.

5) Moderate statistical problem Students are not expected to know. You can solve the problem by learning chapter 7 of this book: Consider a normal probability distribution with the population mode equal to 1,000 and the population standard deviation equal to 100 . What is the probability that an observation selected at random: a. Falls between 800 and 1,150? b. Is greater than 1,000? c. Is less than 1,500? d. Is greater than 1,120? e. Is less than 940 or greater than 1,180?
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