Aral Sea Disaster

CE397 Transboundary Water Resources 07 Feb 2008 Clark Siler

The goal of restoring the entire Aral Sea to previous levels is not achievable in the foreseeable future.
Bridges Over Water, p. 300

Questions: How can a mismanaged water body be reclaimed? Is the disappearance of the Aral Sea inevitable?

History of the Aral Sea Basin

Located in Central Asia, the Aral Sea basin includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan (small portions of Afghanistan and Iran are also included). Historically, the Aral Sea was used as a primary north-south shipping route, and the fishing industry thrived on its yield of fish. The Seas shores provided a harvest of reeds which were used in the production of cartons. The delta from a major contributor provided ecological benefits to migrant birds and rare animals. The Aral Sea is fed by two rivers: the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya. With a combined flow of over one-hundred cubic kilometers, these rivers made the Aral Sea the fourth largest inland lake (prior to 1960). In addition these rivers provided prime potential for water resource development. With such a high volume of flow and an opportunity for agricultural development in the surrounding area, water diversions were established in the 1960s to irrigate the arid areas in the basin in hopes of growing cotton and rice. While these efforts were successful, the means used were inefficient and much water was lost en route. In the ensuing years, more and more water was taken from the rivers to meet increasing demands and to satisfy ever loftier hopes for the future with little apparent thought or concern for the initial destination. Over exploitation of water resources in the Aral Sea Basin continued until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992 after which water management was thrust upon independent states. The now independent former Soviet states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, were now responsible for handling a serious international water dilemma: How to successfully change established ineffective water management practices to meet humanitarian and ecological needs. These nations faced an impending crisisthe Aral Sea was drying up.

Current Situation
Due to decades of improper allocation of water resources, the current status of the Aral Sea is quite grim. Results of mismanagement include the following: Water levels have decreased significantly (see table below) Salinity has increased six-fold (comparing 2000 and 1960, see table below) Basin climate has changed o Temperatures are lower o Snowfall and snowmelt are reduced o River flow is less Wind erosion is increased Salt deposits are increasing, causing damage to crops, power lines, and land fertility as well as introducing health problems Aquifer levels have dropped and aquifer water quality is deteriorated Forest areas have declined Lake navigation is impossible Fish stocks are gone Cancer occurrences are on the rise
Year Annual inflow (km3) Water level (m) Salinity (g/l)

1960 1970 1976 1980 1985 1989 1994 2000

56.0 38.5 10.3 8.3 0 5.4 30.6 3.5

53.3 51.6 48.3 46.2 44.0 39.0 36.8 33.4

10 11 14 16 20 28 > 35 > 60
From Dinar, p. 289

In addition to the plentiful physical problems in and surrounding the Aral Sea, the Sea and its river sources remain internationally charged with existing and potential conflicts and treaties.

Hope for the Future

Around 1990, the Aral Sea divided due to low water level. The Northern Aral Sea and Southern Aral Sea are the result of the Aral Seas recession. Fed by the Syr Darya and managed differently than the now Southern Aral Sea, the Northern Aral Sea provides an interesting case study and example on how to better manage the affairs of the Aral Sea Basin. To separate the Northern from the Southern Aral Sea, Kazakhstan constructed the Kokaral Dam. Now isolated, the Northern Aral Sea is showing positive responses to changes in water management. After improving irrigation means on the Syr Darya, the resulting increased inflow to the Sea has resulted in raised water levels, lower salinity, and the return of fish. These results provide hope for the future of the Northern Sea and a potential model for the Southern Sea. However, the Southern Sea, managed primarily by Uzbekistan (considerably poorer than the

Northern Seas manager, Kazakhstan), seems to be a lost cause considering the lack of interest and means to improve irrigation in hopes of reclaiming the Southern Sea. Despite the differences in management of the now separate seas, the success of the Northern Sea may be a positive benefit to the Southern Sea. As surplus sea water is allowed to pass by the Kokaral Dam, the Southern Sea may likewise be benefited. However, if the managing nation of the Southern Sea has given up hope and left nature (or, rather mismanagement) run its course, benevolent sharing of improved water may be of little consequence. Questions: Under the case of Uzbekistan showing little interest in improving the Southern Aral Sea with flows from the Northern Sea, which would outweigh: philanthropy or the potential for economic benefit of using the water elsewhere (e.g. Kazakhstan using the water upstream)? Who should have a say in the final state of the Aral Sea? o What weight should upstream nations have? o Should neighboring nations have voice in the matter? o What of far-removed nations and organizations?

Required Reading
Case Study 4: The Aral Sea Basin, Dinar et al. pp. 285-301

Additional Resources
Papers Micklin, P. "The Aral Sea disaster." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 35.1 (2007):47-72. Nandalal, K. "Strategic decision support for resolving conflict over water sharing among countries along the Syr Darya River in the Aral Sea Basin." Journal of water resources planning and management 133.4 (2007):289-299. Nezlin, N. "Interannual variations of the discharge of Amu Darya and Syr Darya estimated from global atmospheric precipitation." Journal of marine systems 47.1-4 (2004):67-75. Pala, C. "Ecology - Once a terminal case, the north Aral Sea shows new signs of life." Science 312.5771 (2006):183-183. Internet Sites Dr. McKinneys Aral Sea Knowledge Vault: http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/mckinney/papers/aral/aralhome.html Central Asia Water Info Portal: http://www.cawater-info.net/aral/index_e.htm