Monthly Economic Affairs February, 2014

Volume-III, Issue-II FEBRUARY 2014
Peace Talks with Taliban: a non-starter
Operation or
No operation?
Rs. 250
The economic fatality
EDITORIAL BOARD
Dr Ashfaq Hassan Khan Dr Abid Sulehri Shabbir Ali Nizami Sajid Gondal Zubair Malik
FEBRUARY 2014
EDITORIAL
Spectrum auction can trigger Pakistans Pages 18-19 economy
Exclusive
ADVISORY BOARD
Haroon Akhtar Khan Hamidullah Jan Afridi
Ending Taliban infestation
EDITOR
Tausif-Ur-Rehman
Deputy Editor
Maria Khalid
Correspondents
Aamir Rizvi Muhammad Bilal Khan Shiraz Nizami
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ow it has been more than a decade that the government has shown leniency and soft tone to tame and bring Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) to the table. This grave leniency has not only worsened the law and order situation in the country, deteriorated economy but has also put the image of her prestigious institutions at stake. Instead of any counter action, the emotional speeches and formation of committees by the governments has always encouraged TTP to carry forward high grade extremism against the state, institutions and people as per their own choice. In an interesting turn of events, the federal government and the Tehreek-eTaliban Pakistan (TTP) have announced their teams of negotiators for peace talks. The security analysts are skeptical about the future of the talks, saying that the Taliban are still in no mood to lay down arms and instead, they are set to raise a plethora of demands to the government. The Talibans wish list surfaced in media contains their demand to promulgate rule of Sharia, introduction of an interest-free financial system, withdrawal of troops from tribal areas and abolishment of military check posts. They further demanded release of their 4,752 activists, currently imprisoned in jails and ending up all cases registered against TTP activists. The list also contains the names of those who have been served death sentence by the courts. Interestingly, the TTP has also demanded for compensation of losses it faced during military operation. Acceptance of these demands would simply mean surrendering the state authority. Taliban is an armed group and has successfully been mounting attacks on the Pakistani government, its army and the political personalities, not to mention ordinary citizens. They have training facilities, huge ammunition, and a supply chain of funds and have relations beyond borders. It is pertinent to mention that the Taliban have responded positively for the peace talks after recent bombings by Pakistani forces on their hideouts in Waziristan. The bombing was carried out after a Taliban suicide bomber killed 13 people in a crowded market near Islamabad and two days later of the incident TTP killed 20 troops in the northwest town of Bannu. Numerous peace accords have previously been broken by the militants by using the time to gather their strength and reunite in the name of negotiations. In case the talks reach on an agreement, what would be the future of the Taliban army, which is a huge organized trained force? There is no doubt that people trained for war would never be ready to work as factory laborers or office workers. If the government wants to maintain peace, Pakistan government would have to opt for a well-planned and in-discriminatory full military operation in all hideouts of TTP to dig and cut out all its resources. The in-discriminatory military operation will make people realize the cost and consequences of supporting TTP in their areas. The hue and cry of people losing near and dear ones in wake of military operation will ultimately lose locals support to TTP and will ultimately pressurize them to either quit Pakistan or sit on the table for talks, unconditionally. A military action if not carried out today will be quite challenging in future as it is evident from the intensity of extremism and terrorism by TTP which has increased with each new tomorrow. It is the only way out to bring them on the table on governments terms and conditions.
Pages 8-9
Analysis of Taliban Jurisprudence

Tammy Swofford
Pages 10-11
The Kashmir issue from the American perspective..................12 News in Brief...........................14-15 Neglected Infrastructure; depriving societies..................................18-19 Robots are the not-too-distant future of war...........................20-21 Partnership for health. .........24-26 Pak-India trade good for both countries......................................27 The untold story of the people of Azad Kashmir................................28 Unauthorized purchase of properties at higher rates............29 Diplomacy of brotherhood.....30-31 Lost opportunities and future options........................................32 Shipping organisations with accurate intelligence...................33 Pakistan prepares to introduce flood-tolerant rice varieties...34-35 Qatars unparalleled socioeconomic prosperity...............36-37
The US-Iran nuclear negotiations

Hafiz Muhammad Irfan
Pages 16-17
Livestock recognition through (PARIS)

Dr Muhammad Rasheed
Pages 22-23
Distractions of the Wireless World

Dr Fawad Kaiser
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COVER STORY
The military operation in Swat was a good opportunity to
Peace Talks with Taliban: a non-starter
eliminate terrorism, had it been taken to a logical end. It was after the Swat operation that the Taliban spread their roots across Pakistan. There is no doubt that they have gained strength and are in position to carry out acts of terrorism anywhere in the country. Any new operation in South Waziristan and along northern borders would result in a severe backlash that would even destabilize the government.
growth came to a near halt at around 2% in fiscal year 2009. FDI fell to $463 million in the first quarter against $1.116 billion during the same period the previous year, which is a decline of 58.5 percent. Besides, due to widespread unrest and political uncertainty in Afghanistan, large quantities of our food items/commodities are smuggled to Afghanistan, which ultimately leads to acute food grain scarcity within our country. The current government has ambitious economic targets. It announced to gain 7 percent of GDP growth and also aims to lower budget deficit to 4 percent and the tax-to-GDP ratio would be increased to 15 percent in the five years term of this government. However, Pakistan cannot achieve economic revival until having internal stability and peace with neighboring countries. Pakistans security situation will be the key determinant of the future flow of the investment, and the countrys economy needs an early end to this war. To tackle the situation, the government requires a wide ranging military operation along the Northern borders to eliminate Taliban groups from their base. Secondly, it also requires initiating a cleanup operation led by police in metropolitan cities to net the elements of terrorism. Thirdly, the government should immediately kick start projects for electricity generation and make effective policies to restore investors confidence. It will assist in improving economic and financial conditions and also attract domestic and foreign investors. Fourthly, the market size is also a very important variable for increasing inflows of FDI in Pakistan. Finally, the exchange rate of Pakistani rupee should be strengthened in order to lure foreign investors. More fiscal incentives should be offered if the country is to stem the fall in overall investment. Above all, the soft image of a country is like a cashable commodity, as it is an important source of attracting foreign direct investment. The military operation in Swat was a good opportunity to eliminate terrorism, had it been taken to a logical end. It was after the Swat operation that the Taliban spread their roots across Pakistan. There is no doubt that they have gained strength and are in position to carry out acts of terrorism anywhere in the country. Any new operation in South Waziristan and along northern borders would result in a severe backlash that would even destabilize the government. Nevertheless, there is also no doubt that any soft approach towards handling of Taliban issue or delay in a rigid military and police operation in border areas as well as in the cities would mean putting the existence of the state in danger. There couldnt be a correlation between terrorism and prosperity. Investors would never invest in a destabilized country and if there are no investments, there would be no employment, no growth, no prosperity and no civilization. Finally, the prime minister has formed a four member committee to initiate dialogue with Taliban. The Taliban have also shown their willingness for talks. But firstly, everyone knows that Taliban are a force and they will not kind heartedly accept governments request for laying down arms and secondly how independent are Taliban in making their decisions? They would come up with demands that would be unacceptable for the state. Even, if the government manages to reach an agreement with Taliban, what is the guarantee that its faith would not be different than the previous agreements signed with Taliban. Keeping in view the faith of the agreements signed in the past, it is very likely to be nothing but just a mere exercise. A military operation against terrorist groups would most likely be the last resort. The writer is a team member of monthly Economic Affairs and a financial journalist from Islamabad. He can be reached at gondal.sajid@gmail.com
Operation or
The economic fatality
No operation?
lower investment and weak economic growth. Unfortunately, the current government led by PML (N), the previous PPPP rule and the army led regime failed to tackle this growing menace and let it spread like a smoke across Pakistan. Other factors hampering economic growth are shortfall in means of energy i.e. electricity, gas and oil, corruption and shortage of skilled human resource. Though, the root cause of all these negative factors is believed to be terrorism and crimes. Many investigations concluded that Taliban residing inside Pakistan are responsible for acts of terrorism and are supporting crimes to fund their movement. With worsened law and order, the cost of doing business increases, normal business requires more time and extra security. It results in sharp decline in investments, extra expenditures on security and heavy development costs due to destruction.The rehabilitation of
internally displaced persons also consumes a big chunk of the governments financial resources, widening the fiscal deficit and halting economic growth. Thus, government is compelled to introduce budgetary restrictions to control the budget deficit and keep budgetary formation aligned. Pakistan is the only country in the world facing direct backlash from global war on terror. Its role as a frontline state has deteriorated its economic condition and has also weakened its future economic prospects. According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SAPT), a total 50943 fatalities have been registered in terrorist violence in Pakistan since 2003, including 18373 civilians. In a recent statement, Pakistans Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said that Pakistan has suffered a loss of around $100 billion since 2001-02 due to the war on terror. Its economic
C
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Sajid Gondal
ertainly, Pakistan is not an Asian tiger, neither, it is on the path to become a tiger, though the country has a tremendous potential for economic growth. Terrorism is not the only one, but a major hurdle in its way for development and prosperity. It creates uncertainty, reduces confidence and increases risk perception, leading to
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WAR ON TERROR
to function as signal, symbol and code is moving from Arabic, to transliteration, to desktop. A basic thought which is threaded throughout the Taliban document is based on the concept of Walawal Bara. The boundaries regarding limited friendship with idolaters (non-Muslims) and more demographically specific, Jews and Christians, is strongly conveyed. Qur'anic ayat are liberally tossed about, without balancing the text with an understanding that each ayat in the Qur'an has a historical backdrop. In and of itself, time line constraints are difficult for many Muslims because temporal sense of space is enveloped within the concept of eternity. So the history and battles of the early Islamic state become more than just history. They spring to life for re-enactment in the 21st century. Enmity is forever. The author gives the well-worn trope of Dar ul Islam and Dar ulHarb. He speaks of a world separated into two spheres. I have to smile.In actuality, a third concept, that of Dar al-'Ahd (treaty territory) and an additional "two spheres or two suite of laws apply. The concept of Ma'ahid resonates in the writing of the author. It is a term which does not denote a security agreement with an opposing force. Rather, it is the truce between two mutually-hostile forces which allows for a cessation of hostilities for ten years. (Author's note: the legal precedence for a decade of cessation of hostilities is the Hudaibiyah treaty.) In other words, a document which provides for appeasement is allowed. It is allowed for ten years. But beyond the truce, all documents must be signed by a legally recognized Amir of a territory, his deputy or someone with by direction signatory authority. President Hamid Karzai? He remains a disappointment to the West. His administration is pock-marked with corruption and cronyism. He remains a target of the Taliban. In the document, he is treated as a legal non-entity. The document states there is no legal basis for a security agreement because Americans do not fall within one of two categories. We are neither tax-paying non-Muslim, nor do we come with a legal document which the warring party will agree to sign. The author states that while solid objectives are obtained for the United States (control over land and air space, military bases, access to communication, etc), that which is offered to the Afghan population is ambiguous and general in nature. Interestingly enough, the document ends on a weak note because of the inclusion of a paragraph about the open sale of pork and alcohol products. This topic falls under a completely different suite of laws and on a basic level, the sale of alcohol falls under the category of Hisbah/public order. Perhaps the author ran out of steam. But as for me, I think I need a drink.... of water, of course. The writer is a freelance journalist and author of the novel Arsenal. She can be reached at tammyswof@msn.com
The bilateral security agreement
Analysis of Taliban jurisprudence
Tammy Swofford
he distillation of thought for negotiation on the communal level most likely began with the AlFudoul confederacy. But it was a meeting at Wadi Al-Muhassab, and subsequent social boycott of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) and his followers which forged the thoughts regarding future domestic and foreign policy endeavors. Undoubtedly, the grandson of 'Abdul-Muttalib and his followers were also emotionally impacted by a trail of ants and the story of their own small intervention to validate the end of a social boycott and the supremacy of the Muslims. This caused the Messenger of a growing cadre of loyalists to say, "I will guide you in the means by which you will gain sovereignty over both the Arabs and the non-Arabs." The crafting of the Hudaibiyah treaty showed a distinct doctrinal strength which established precedent for negotiations which did not place the Muslims at a disadvantage. The Makki text of the Qur'an focused on pivotal eternal issues and soft social issues. But after the rise of a nascent Islamic capitol at Madinah, a suite of laws regarding issues of state and foreign policy began to emerge. Usool al-Fiqh (sources of Islamic Law) as provided in the Madani text gave greater emphasis on issues of state, including both military and
diplomatic options. Islamic conquest and expansionism was the cadence heard across the region after the death of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH). The concept of the authority of Muslims above all other people became an anchoring thought. To the winner belong the spoils of war. Today, this cadence is felt in Afghanistan. "Allah will never give the kafirun a way over the Muminun" is the word on the street for the Taliban. This posture has been noted throughout the years in which America and NATO allies have sought to clip the wings of jihad. In a sense, the holding pattern of the talib regarding belief has brought us to the place we stand today. We are in need of an exit plan, a security agreement, and future squared-jaw interactions across negotiation tables. Law is the filigree of Islamic culture when viewed through the eyes of the Western powers. It is subtle and difficult to understand for those who have not mentored under Shari'ah chain of command. We examine text and see stagnation. But for those who are strongly observant of Islamic principles, law is effervescent. These individuals envision a fountain.
"Awamm", or common people". Ancient text harbored within library archives and museum displays in a prior era is now available on the internet. The ability of the Qur'anic Sciences
Analysis
Document retrieval from a jihad portal provides a counterweight analysis of the Bilateral Security Agreement between Afghanistan and the United States. The author states that Afghans are Sunni Hanafi. Hence, the works of Hanafi maddhab (scholars) are used in support of an argument against the agreement. The document is powerfully written. The primary defense against the Bilateral Security Agreement finds a platform with codified Fiqh rulings which provide a compendium of thought regarding foreign affairs. I am reminded of a current reality. Many of the jurisprudential rulings and writings which were the domain of scholars are now within the reach of the
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WORLD
Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The Jewish Institute of National Security Affairs (JINSA) in its report, Strategy to Prevent Nuclear Iran says, Three consecutive presidential administrations, of both parties Democrats and Republicans, have declared a nuclear Iran unacceptable. Shortly after his election in 2008, President Barack Obama pledged, like his predecessors, touse all elements of American power to thwart Irans nuclear ambitions. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel spelled out the Administrations position even more clearly during a visit to Israel this spring: all military options, and every option, must remain on the table in dealing with Iran. There are hardliners on both sides who are opposing this deal. As per Foreign Policy Magazine report published on December 19, 2013, two of the most senior Democrats in the US Senate including Robert Menendez, who chairs the powerful foreign affairs committee and Chuck Schumer, the third-ranking Democrat in chamber have asked to impose new sanctions on Iran. It will be very difficult for President Obama and Secretary John Kerry to get Congress to agree not to impose new sanctions on Iran. If they keep on failing and Congress passes legislation, new sanctions can sabotage the final deal with Iran. On the other hand, it could be a pressure tactic to force Iran to go by the book. U.S. Senator will only make a hue and cry for sanctions while in reality these sanctions will not be imposed. However, President Obama has recently stated that he would veto any new sanctions passed by the U.S. Congress during talks on a long-term deal with Iran. The US Secretary of the State, Mr. John Kerry, in a testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also requested not to go for new sanctions against Iran, he said, This is a very delicate diplomatic moment, and we have a chance to address peacefully one of the most pressing national security concerns that the world faces today with gigantic implications of the potential of conflict. It was also necessary for Americas strategic interest to go for a diplomatic solution with Iran by signing a nuclear deal in the context of Afghan end game as U.S. has to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan and U.S needs Irans role in Afghanistan.
Hafiz Muhammad Irfan
T
The US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations
Israel and Saudi Arabia are two main opponents of this deal. Israels resentment is quite obvious as it is the main rival of Iran and it wants to dismantle Iran nuclear programme. A nuclear-capable Iran is a continuous headache for Israel. Israel has certain reservations as the interim nuclear deal does not question nuclear capability of Iran.
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he United States and Iran enjoyed cordial relations from the signing of Treaty of Commerce and Navigations in 1856 till 1979 with some retrogression in the 1950s. But these relations between both the countries reached all time worst condition in 1979 when Iranians, who were frustrated due to corrupt practices of the then powerful monarch Mohammed Reza Shah Pahalvi, overthrew him. As a result of revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came into power. Khomeini declared U.S. as Great Satan, his followers attacked American Embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. From Ayatollah Khomeini (1979) till the end of Ahmadinejads period in (2013) Iran and U.S.-fought proxy wars, relations saw some progress but mostly regression. The US imposed strict sanctions on Iranian oil trade, banking, and travel and froze 45 billion dollars of Iranian money belonging to their elite which were banked in United States. Now a prominent turning point has appeared in the form of US-Iran nuclear deal. Irans nuclear deal with United States and five other world nuclear powers including Russia, China, France, Germany and Great Britain is a remarkable development to boost Iran-US ties. The United States main purpose of the deal is to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and nuclear enrichment. Under the agreement, Iran will halt uranium enrichment above five percent and will not install next-generation centrifuges to enrich uranium while it will transfer all stock of 20 percent enriched uranium into gas or fuel rods. In return, Iran will receive $ 7 billion in terms of limited sanctions relief. Now, this interim nuclear deal among Iran and six world powers is being seen as a ray of hope to normalize relations between both the countries. US analysts are of the view that if Iran goes nuclear, regional conflict is on the cards. US has been quite successful in getting support of five other world powers to pressurize Iran for coming to negotiation table and inking a deal. The US has a clear stance on stopping
On the other hand, Iran wants to boost its economy. Commenting on the deal, Dr. Tahir Amin, a renowned Pakistani Professor of Political Science and Director, National Institute of Pakistan Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad argued, "Iran is going to adopt Turkish model. It wants to boost its economy. Iranian President Hassan Rouhaniis doing what he had pledged in his presidential election campaign that he will revive Irans economy as its economy is on crossroads, he remarked. Moreover, Vali Nasr in his article Irans Economy on Crossroads, published in The New York Times on December 04, 2013 said, under the stringent sanctions of the past two years, Irans oil exports dropped to around 1 million barrels per day from 2.5 million. Gross domestic product shrank by 5 to 6 percent. Inflation soared to 45 percent, and unemployment to 35 percent. Israel and Saudi Arabia are two main opponents of this deal. Israels resentment is quite obvious as it is the main rival of Iran and it wants to dismantle Iran nuclear programme. A nuclear-capable Iran is a continuous headache for Israel. Israel has certain reservations as the interim nuclear deal does not question nuclear capability of Iran. In a way, Saudi Arabias concerns are quite significant and valid as if Irans relations become normal with US, it will certainly gain political and economic role in the South Asia and Middle East which is unacceptable to the Saudi Arabia. After decades of stand-still between Iran-U.S relations, this nuclear deal could set new dimensions for the international politics. This will help improve security and stability not only in the Middle East but also in South Asia. If properly and timely implemented, it goes in favor of both Tehran and Washington. Iran wants to boost its economy and free oil
The US Secretary of the State, Mr. John Kerry, in a testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also requested not to go for new sanctions against Iran, he said, This is a very delicate diplomatic moment, and we have a chance to address peacefully one of the most pressing national security concerns that the world faces today with gigantic implications of the potential of conflict. trade with the world and U.S. does not want to see a nuclear-capable Iran as it wants to see a stronger Israel compared to Iran. Iran has emerged as the major beneficiary of this deal as it will sustain its nuclear capability, although will not make a nuclear weapon, will boost its economy and will play a significant political role in the region. In writers' view, this interim deal will succeed, and as a result of final deal, Irans significant political role in the region is imminent. The only danger to the regional players and the United States will be from Saudi Arabia, it will play a proxy war in the region. Now it will be a test for Pakistan and United States how to tackle this issue. By and large, the said deal is a good omen for the region in specific and the world, in general. The writer is pursuing an M.Phil in International Relations from IQRA University Islamabad. He tweets @irfanchaudhri and can be reached at irfanchaudhri@gmail.com
11 FEB 2014
OPINION
With respect to Kashmir, obviously this is a long standing dispute between India and Pakistan. As I said yesterday, I believe that both Pakistan and India have an interest in reducing tensions between the two countries. The United States cannot impose a solution to these problems, but Ive indicated to Prime Minister Singh that we are happy to play any role that the parties think is appropriate in reducing these tensions. Thats in the interests of the region, its in the interests of the two countries involved, and its in the interests of the United States of America. ---President Barack Obama
INTERVIEW
Sabria Chowdhury Balland
he above quote is crucial in comprehending the current position that the United States holds regarding the conflictual situation in Kashmir. The region of Kashmir has been in dispute since the independent countries of India and Pakistan were created in 1947. The region has been the source of much tension and conflict over the years, causing the relation between India and Pakistan to deteriorate on many occasions. However, the position of the United States on this issue is hardly known by its citizens, nor is it widely publicized and discussed as are the tense situations between Israel and its neighbors. Furthermore, the United States has not really taken a definitive stance on the matter in spite of the existence of groups in the region which can rightfully be classified as terrorist groups. The issue of Kashmir is not important for the United States for the region itself but rather due to the fact that it involves two nations which are of strategic interest to the United States. Before the Cold War, the United States viewed Pakistan as a significant Cold War ally. At that point in history, India was not considered a strategic partner to the United States due to its friendly relations with the Soviet Union. However, after the Cold War, this situation began to change following the fall of the Soviet Union and with the increasing prominence and power of China. In order to reinforce its position with China, the United States sought to establish closer ties with India. This historical backdrop is significant in understanding whether the USs Cold War era perceptions about Kashmir continue to this day to influence its stance on the region. If such is the case, there is the danger of missing realities
Spectrum auction can trigger Pakistans economy
The Kashmir issue from the American perspective

which have arisen with the passage of time and basing previous issues as the foundation for current decisions and actions. However, the Cold War perceptions of the Kashmir issue do not seem to be the basis of the United States position on the issue today. In the present day, the United StatesIndia-Pakistan relationship is, to say the least, a complex one. The United States needs the assistance of Pakistan in its global anti-terrorism policy and simultaneously needs to maintain an amicable relation with India in order to counter the balance of Chinas increasing influence in the region. Thus, The United States position with reference to Kashmir is essentially one of neutrality based on maintaining cordial relations with India without foregoing a relationship with Pakistan. In 2010, when President Obama clearly stated that the United States cannot impose any solutions to the Kashmir issue, he rather encouraged India and Pakistan to reduce tensions by themselves for the interest of the two countries, the region and that of the United States. He stated that the United States in turn would assist in any way to reduce these tensions. This statement may indicate a show of support for India as that nation has always held the position that no outside forces be involved in the settlement of the Kashmir dispute, despite requests from Pakistan for an American involvement in negotiations. Since both countries are of strategic value to the United States, its position on the Kashmir issue is essentially one of a hands-off policy and it is clearly exercising a strategic balancing act in order to not offend either side. This position was further reiterated recently by State Department spokesperson Marie Harf who stated that India and Pakistan need to improve their bilateral relations and that the two countries need to establish better relations and work together on the Kashmir issue, further stating that the United States remains concerned about the issues of peace and stability in the region (without getting directly involved). The United States has therefore ruled out any mediation on the Kashmir dispute. It can clearly be seen that the United States has time and again held a neutral and balanced position on the Kashmir issue, maintaining that India and Pakistan are ultimately responsible for ceasing their tensions. This will most likely continue to be the United States position on Kashmir, unless of course the situation between India and Pakistan deteriorates to a point which will cause significant damage to the United States strategic interests or if the region attracts a large number of multinational terrorists which pose a direct threat to the United States. The writer is a professor of English and French, resides in United States. She can be reached at scballand@gmal.com.
Shiraz Nizami
welcome stimulus for the local software industry and massive potential efficiencies for businesses. This long-awaited modernization of the mobile industry will put real money in the pockets of ordinary citizens all over Pakistan. Just like 2G was such an effective engine of growth in the last decade, 3G can also contribute significantly. Broadband deployment will unleash tremendous opportunities related to jobs, foreign investment, trade, and economic growth.
ver the past few months, more than 160 countries have launched 3G services and the number of active 3G subscriptions surpassed one billion. Even in a small and poor country like Kiribati situated in the middle of the Pacific with hardly any resources and considered to be one of the least developed countries of the world 3G systems are being introduced to the public. Countries from Australia to the USA are allocating billions of dollars to deploy broadband infrastructures, said Mr Jon Fredrik Baksaas, President Telenor Group in an exclusive interview with monthly Economic Affairs.
Telecom penetration in Pakistan is higher than that in India and the arrival of next generation spectrum will boost it further, said Mr. Jon Fredrik Baksaas, President Telenor Group. subscriptions. The group provides services in twelve countries and additionally in seventeen countries through ownership in Vimpel Com Ltd. In Pakistan, the active subscriber base of Telenor users is more than 32 million and its retaining the position of second largest mobile operator in the country. Taxation and investment related issues were discussed during meeting with Federal Minister for Finance and revenue Mr Ishaq Dar. I told him that the Telenor Group has been working in Pakistan for nearly a decade and has invested $ 2.3 billion and contributed another half billion dollar in shape of various taxes, besides providing employment to 3800 persons directly and over 25000 persons indirectly.
Why is the world going so crazy for new generation spectrum?

Well, the main benefit of broadband lies in its capability as a deliverer of basic services to citizens in an extremely non-discriminatory way. Through applications such as e-education, e-medicine and e-governance, to name a few, users can easily have access to education, healthcare and governance. These services can be provided to all the citizens irrespective of how rich or poor they are and how near or remote they live. One can receive healthcare through e-medicine, where doctors can gauge your health status via different applications and video chatting facilities. Similarly, children can learn and get education through multimedia and animations that can help them understand difficult concepts without having to rote learn them. If a lecture is given through video calling, it will be received by all, without any discrimination of class, gender, ethnicity or race. This is particularly important for those 70% of us who live in rural areas. In that respect, broadband is a great equalizer of sorts!
Skeptics usually ask, why 3G? Is it to enable us to watch movies on the go?
Unfortunately, a lot of people only think of it in terms of smart phones. Although a large amount of productive things could be done with 3G smart phones, it is the 3G mobile broadband on PCs, laptops and tablets that is of real value for developing countries. To connect these devices to broadband, USB dongles are used. People in developed countries usually use mobile broadband in addition to the fixed broadband, but in developing countries mobile-broadband is often the only broadband access available. That does not mean we use it only for cell phones and not for offices and homes.
Do you have any reservations on procedure of 3G auction??

About a decade ago, the auction of 2G license was quite well balanced and was effective to boost the telecom penetration. We expect the government will adopt similar approach for the next generation spectrum auction. Allocating broadband frequency spectrum to operators is extremely urgent and essential. It should have been done five years ago. And as for the debate whether the licenses should be for 3G or 4G, there is one answer. The licenses should be technology-neutral let the operators decide. They certainly know the market better. The writer is an Islamabad based journalist.
Recently, you held meetings with the President of Pakistan and also with Finance Minister Ishaq Dar. Which important issues came under discussion during these high profile meetings?
Yes, these meetings were very useful. The President, Mamnoon Hussain appreciated the role of Telenor Group in the telecommunication sector and invited us to participate in the upcoming next generation spectrum auction. I briefed Mr President about Telenor Group and that Telenor is one of the worlds major mobile operators with more than 160 million
What would be the economic benefits of 3G?

The economic benefits of new generation spectrum will be huge. It will provide a
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12
13 FEB 2014
NEWS IN BRIEF
insisted that reducing consumer prices was essential, even as he admitted that the slowdown of the countrys growth was increasingly worrisome. The decision follows the RBIs proposal last week for a sweeping overhaul of its ad hoc monetary policy to a primary goal of inflation targeting. The rate decision was not welcomed in the business community, which argued that rate rises were hampering demand and hurting investment and therefore growth. 2013 as compared to same period last year. The increase is mainly due to SBPs initiative of introduction of annual outstanding indicative targets for banks. 5.826-6.00 million tonnes of the sweetener against 5.4 million tonnes produced in 2012-13.Consequently, after meeting domestic consumption of around 4.5 million tonnes, there would be a surplus of around 1.326 million tonnes of sugar. Therefore, the country could easily export around 0.5 million tonnes and earn precious foreign exchange. This will also result in sizable end stocks of around 0.8 million tonnes which could be maintained as buffer stocks to meet any shortcoming till next season.
Iqbal Ashraf new NBP chief

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has appointed Mr Syed Ahmed Iqbal Ashraf as President/CEO of National Bank of Pakistan. The post has been lying vacant since September 2013. Prior to this assignment, Syed Ahmed Iqbal Ashraf is Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Pak-Iran Investment Company Limited. Ashraf has over 33 years of International banking experience. He has served in senior positions in the UK, the US, the Middle East and Pakistan. Ashraf is a fellow of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (FACCA) from England. Prior to joining PAIR Investment Company Limited as MD/CEO, Ashraf served as a Group Chief (Corporate Banking) in NBP. He is also former Deputy Managing Director/Director of Pak-China Investment Company. Previously, he was Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Bank of Khyber.
Offloading of HBLs shares

With the stage set for the first phase of privatization of stateheld entities, Habib Bank Ltd the largest bank in the country, with a huge Rs1.43 trillion in total assets and roughly 1,500 domestic and 43 international branches is among those organizations that are likely to garner much investor interest. The board of the privatization commission approved the off-loading of shares of three commercial banks, including HBL, and two energy companies. According to reports, the government is mulling over selling up to 20 per cent shares of HBL; it currently holds about 42 per cent of the total shares of the bank. The banks management was privatized after an organization had obtained majority shareholding in 2003-4. There are also reports that the government intends to sell HBL shares (along with those of OGDC and PPL) in foreign markets.
SECP approves futures trading in KSE-30 index

The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan has approved futures trading in KSE-30 index in all three stock exchanges of the country that would start soon, an official told Economic Affairs. The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), Lahore Stock Exchange (LSE) and Islamabad Stock Exchange (ISE) decided last year to start trading in KSE-30 index but the operation of such a product was delayed because of the request pending with the SECP for some time. After the crisis of 2008, the KSE started five new products to attract new local investors in the market but received response of no more than 10 percent of total traders, officials said. Badla (exchange) financing was stopped in the market involving huge amounts borrowed from banks, which stopped giving money to small investors. Badla gave more leverage, but was responsible for fluctuation and a better trading system, Margin Trading System (MTS), was introduced, which was an advanced type of badla with more check and balances, but a complete trust is yet to be developed, the official said.
SBP revises Prudential Regulations for agri financing

The State Bank of Pakistan has issued revised Prudential Regulations (PRs) for agriculture financing. The revised instructions call upon banks to develop robust and market-oriented policies and practices to promote enhanced flow of credit to the agriculture sector without compromising financial stability and banks risk management. The revised regulations, among other areas, make it mandatory for banks to formulate comprehensive agriculture financing policies covering broad areas of strategic importance, including loan administration, disbursement and monitoring mechanisms, set-up and maintenance of dedicated agriculture, finance departments equipped with qualified agriculture financing experts and delegation of powers relating to loan approval or sanction at the appropriate level.
Audit into Rs480 billion payment to IPPs sought

With new circular debt touching the staggering figure of Rs194 billion, the senate standing committee on water and power asked for a third party audit into the payment of Rs480 billion to independent power producers (IPPs) a few months back. The committee directed the ministry of water and power to apprise the body about the reasons of increasing load shedding in the country. Additional Secretary at power ministry Sohail Akber told the meeting that the government had already directed the authorities concerned to ensure the third party audit into the payments to IPPs. He informed the participants that even after the payment of Rs480 billion to IPPs, the electricity production has tumbled to 5,200 megawatts from 5,500 MW.
Credit line to private sector swells to Rs230 billion

The credit to the private sector has increased to Rs230 billion during January 2014 as compared to Rs53 billion in the same period last year a sign that the economy is gaining momentum. Briefing on economic indicators, Finance Secretary Dr Waqar Masood told journalists that the measures taken to control inflation seemed to be on the right track since there has been a continuous decline in the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) in the past eight weeks. The cumulative current account deficit stood at $1.6 billion, a current account surplus was posted in December 2013 $285 million on account of robust growth in remittances which increased by 9.5 percent on average as compared to the same period last year, Waqar said. Moreover, exports showed an increase of 3.2 percent against 0.6 percent last year and import increased by 3.9 percent against 0.1 percent last year. Further, the import of machinery had also increased by 26.3 percent. While reviewing external inflows, the finance minister expressed hope that in the coming months the situation would improve further due to the positive impact of GSP Plus.
Dar appoints Wathra SBP acting governor

Finance Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar has appointed Ashraf Mahmood Wathra, Deputy Governor, State Bank of Pakistan as the Acting Governor of the central bank till further orders. The Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Yaseen Anwar has been directed to hand over the charge to Ashraf Mahmood Wathra, upon close of business hours today (Friday). The federal government on Thursday has accepted the resignation of the Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Yaseen Anwar, as he had serious differences with the Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar over the economic policies. However, the SBP has claimed personal reasons of Yaseen Anwar behind his resignation.
Pakistan seeks $1.5 billion under IDA-16

Pakistan has asked the World Bank to commit $1.5 billion under the 16th Financing Framework of International Development Association known as IDA-16 before the end of June this year to finance projects in the energy and social sectors aimed at reducing poverty. The issue of releasing $1.5 billion has been raised by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during a recent meeting with the heads of World Bank Group recently.The prime ministerinformed the World Bank delegation that regional cooperation needed a boost as the government intends to start with concrete projects such as CASA1000 and regional trade with India. The IDA-16 was finalised in December 2010 resulting in the record replenishment of $49.3bn to finance projects over the three years period ending June 2014.
Sugar export to fetch $550m

The country is likely to earn around $500-550 million on exporting around 0.5 million tonnes of white refined sugar this season (201314), industry sources told Economic Affairs. On harvesting bumper sugarcane crop at 60 million tonnes this season (2013-14), millers expects to produce a record quantity of around
Banks achieve 44pc agri target

Banks achieved 44 per cent of the annual target for the agriculture loans in the first half of this fiscal year, announced the State Bank of Pakistan. Banks disbursed Rs159.3 billion during the July-December period of 2013-14 compared to Rs140.3bn in the corresponding period last year, an increase of 13.5 per cent. Banks achieved 44 per cent of their annual combined indicative target of Rs360bn despite multitude of challenges such as high nonperforming loans, recovery drive, insufficient banks infrastructure and overall security and macroeconomic conditions. The outstanding portfolio of agriculture loans surged by Rs40.8bn or 17.3 per cent i.e. from Rs235.9bn to Rs276.7bn at end December
India raises interest rates to combat inflation

The Reserve Bank of India announced 25 basis point rate hikesin the interest rate raising it to 8 per cent. The Governor RBI, , Mr Rajan
FEB 2014
14
15 FEB 2014
LIVESTOCK
is probably the ear tag. Ear tagging technology has made significant progress over the last decade and a generation of tamper-resistant and easily readable tags has evolved that would remain in place for the life of the animal. Basic requirements of registration and identification, is to use any device to identify livestock which satisfies three basic criteria i) it must be affordable, ii) durable and iii) clearly readable from a reasonable distance. For that purpose Plastic Ear Tags, using laser-printing techniques for codes, visible from a distance of two meters or more should be used. Codes: The codes on the tags should have unique identification numbers, ensuring that two animals in the same identified population do not have the same identification code printed on them. The individual animal identity should hold its province of birth, district, union council, and village, owner of animal or herd with a unique animal number within that herd or ownership.
Livestock
registration & identification
Dr Muhammad Rasheed
FEB 2014 16
akistan, especially Punjab, is an agro-livestock based economy. Livestock & dairy sector is the main segment of agro-economy playing a key role in providing major source of animal protein in the shape of milk, meat and eggs to the consumers. In 2010-11, livestock constituted 11.5 % of the total GDP and accounted for about 55.1% of agricultural value added at the micro level. Punjab province of Pakistan possesses tremendous resources of agriculture & livestock, capable of meeting local and export demand of livestock products. The livestock-based surpluses can be exported with adaptation and implementation of international food safety standards & certification having efficient product traceability system covering Farm to Fork compliance regime. Effective Livestock Registration and Identification System is central to manage disease surveillance, reporting, diagnosis, control and ultimate eradication of most fatal diseases in the country. Such system having animal registration and identification tools for addressing animal health (including zoonoses) and food safety issues is a crucial part of veterinary public health aspects. Effective
implementation of the system may significantly improve the effectiveness of activities such as the management of disease outbreaks and food safety incidents, vaccination programs, herd/flock husbandry, zoning/compartmentalization, surveillance, early response and notification systems, animal movement controls, inspection, certification, fair practices in trade and the utilization of veterinary drugs, feed and pesticides at farm level. As there is a strong relationship between animal identification and the traceability of animals and products of animal origin, so while considering export regime in line with the national and international food safety standards, the animal traceability system is pre-requisite for the export of products from animal origin, linked throughout the animal production and food chain. The establishment of animal registration and identification system under public entity should lead towards focused activities on productivity enhancement, linkages development for national and international markets by declaring disease free particular area, zone or compartment. This establishment should support in management of livestock emergencies e.g. natural catastrophes or man-made events and also in trade for inspection and certification activities of veterinary services, as desired under international obligations by managing aspects of animal husbandry such as animal performance, breed characteristics, genetic potential and progeny testing data.
relevant governmental agencies in consultation with stakeholders needs implementation and enforcement of Punjab Animal Registration & Identification System (PARIS) in the province. Such system should be under the responsibility of the Veterinary Authority at national as well as at provincial level. The draft of National Food Safety, Animal and Plant Health Regulatory Authority Act, 2012 is under consideration for approval and implementation by the Ministry of Food Security and Research, Government of Pakistan. This draft Bill indicates the establishment of Provincial Animal Health Authorities at provinces to cover Farm to Fork Food Safety & Hygiene compliance for domestic and international trade requirements. The proposed draft bill needs to add section on Animal Registration and Identification System in Pakistan.
From identification to traceability

The PARIS should identify an animal with ear tag codes to build a traceability system where the animals unique identification in combination with movement record should be used to provide traceability. The success of a traceability system is a register of properties/ places which may send and receive livestock, and a register of valid livestock identification codes and the users to whom they were issued. The recording of livestock movements between registered holdings should be made mandatory, and there must be means of auditing and enforcement of such movement recorded under prescribed legal bindings for livestock owners. A traceability system should be established having a catalogue of all properties, identification codes and records of animal movements on a computer system (database) to be tracked by Livestock Department or other relevant governmental agency designated for this purpose by the Punjab government. Dr. Muhammad Rasheed is a livestock professional working for value addition in veterinary services as a trainer, facilitator and evaluator. He can be reached at muhammadrasheed2352@gmail.com
Modus operandi
Animal identification is always necessary for farmer/owner as well as for the state for further development aspects in the region. In this context, various techniques for placing identifying marks on or within an animals body have been developed for effective identification that meets these management needs and requirements ranging from hot/cool branding to Radio Frequency Identification Device/ chip. Ear Tags: In PARIS, the means of registration and identification of animals should be tags. Presently different tools of identification have been developed and used like neck tags, tail tags and ear tags. The commonest form of external identification currently in use
Legal umbrella
Support with legal frame work from
17 FEB 2014
ANALYSIS ECONOMY
Neglected infrastructure; depriving societies

Pakistan has huge network of canal system, but lack of government political will and no specific budgetary allocations for modernizing the canal system in Pakistan have made the country water scarce and its consequences we can see in severe shortage of water availability for agriculture. Mainly all of the infrastructure development projects were politically motivated and in the best interest of the politicians themselves, rather than being in favor of citizens. Political incentives have remained the prime driver for many of the projects.
ublic Sector Development Programme (PSDP) aims at funding, physical & social infrastructure and basic services and utilities for socioeconomic uplift of the Muhammad Hamza Abbas country. Broader objectives of the PSDP are to reduce poverty, improve physical infrastructure, public welfare and achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). PSDP is generally categorized into expenditures for projects under the heads of: i). Infrastructure development ii). Social sector iii). Production sector. Projects related to infrastructural development comprises of roads, highways, buildings, power generation, seaports, railways etc. In the case of Pakistan where we can observe the transportation, communication and power generation is inadequate and budgetary provisions can play a pivotal role in the overall production and growth in the country. The argument by economist cannot be denied that weak infrastructure lure finance availability. The inadequate finance affects infrastructure development, so Pakistan is under low-level equilibrium trap. Coming out has been a major issue for the policy makers. WAPDA (Power and Water), Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Railways, Earth Quake Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and National Highway Authority (NHA) tend to be the biggest shareholder of these infrastructure development expenditures. Merely development expenditures for infrastructure might not be too helpful. Huge amounts going into these projects wont bore fruit unless they are being carried with strong policy backing and public-private partnership for many projects. These are the projects that are delayed due to late allocations and many other projects for which budgetary provisions are not made. Governments had failed to develop proper infrastructure despite several five year plans. Many researches have proved that the country is facing huge migration issue, people are moving to urban localities and it is estimated that by 2030, urban population would be around 50% of the total population in the country. Projects that are aimed at providing PSDP-Infrastructure Expenditures Budget 2012-13 Water and Power 47,192 Division (Water Sector) Water and Power 29,655 Sector (Power Sector) Petroleum & Natural 268 Resources Division Revised Budget 2012-13 226,116 105,905 46,386 10,000 463,000 851,407 Budget 2013-14 295,518 114,482 5,000 115000 10,000 615,000 1,155,000 C o m m u n i c a t i o n s 142 Division (other than NHA) Pakistan Atomic 39,167 Energy Commission (PAEC) Railways Division Housing and Works Ports and Division 22,877 2,591 Rs in Million Revised Budget 2012-13 45,306 34,747 386 142 44,074 25,832 7,950 325 71,158 388,407 Budget 2013-14 57,840 51,443 50 109 52,300 30,965 3,780 500 63,039 540,000 good infrastructure in the rural communities could have good impact on the lives of rural communities in terms of getting access to markets, education, health, clean drinking water, sanitation etc. We dont see any of the schemes in the budget 2013-14 that are aimed at providing quality services for rural communities alone. After 1990s, there was no big investment made by the private sector on infrastructure in the country. In fact governments didnt involve the private sector to work for developing schemes in the country. Pakistan has huge network of canal system, but lack of government political will and no specific budgetary allocations for modernizing the canal system in Pakistan have made the country water scarce and its consequences we can see in severe shortage of water availability for agriculture. Mainly all of the infrastructure development projects were politically motivated and in the best interest of the politicians themselves, rather than being in favor of citizens. Political incentives have remained the prime driver for many of the projects. For example floods in 2010 destroyed two-third crops in the country and many precious lives. Even in that case government did not show any urgency to build water reservoirs and small dams to deal with such floods and wastage of water and crops. Some of other major projects were metro bus service in Lahore; unlimited fly overs in Multan. Ignoring rural localities of the provinces have slowed down the economic growth in the country. Ignoring energy, water and communication infrastructures have badly stalled the growth of trade and industrial activities. In these summers the energy shortfall has reached 8000 MW, which could only be dealt with the construction of a major dam and other small hydro projects. All this has led to making significant enhancement in cost of doing business and agriculture in Pakistan. Proper development of infrastructure would help to meet much of local demands like energy, clean drinking water, sanitation facilities, and transportation& communication system in addition to creating many job opportunities. Apart from that it would generate demand for more raw materials which in return will make more income for local businesses and foreign direct investment. The writer is a Researcher at Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad.
Budget 2013-14 shows a significant increase in the PSDP allocations for the year. For 2012-13 the size of national PSDP was Rs 851 billion, but this year the new government intends to spend Rs 1,155 billion with an increase of Rs 35.7%. Federal PSDP has also been increased by 39%. Last year it was Rs 388.407 billion and for the current fiscal year this amounts to Rs 540 billion. In terms of corporations PSDP expenditures the estimated budget is Rs 114.482 billion which shows 8.1 % increase. A new head has been created this year under the name of New Development Initiatives. Rs 115 billion have been set under this heading which is 10% of the total PSDP budget. Summary of the PSDP expenditures with Rs in Million are given below: Table below shows the expenditures that government tends to allocate for infrastructure development in the country under the head of PSDP programs.
Summary-PSDP Expenditures Classification Federal Ministries/ Divisions Corporations Special Programs New Development Initiatives ERRA Provinces Total National PSDP Budget 2012-13 242,618 80,382 27,000 10,000 513,000 873,000
Shipping 325
National Highways 50,727 Authority (NHA) ERRA 360,000
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19 FEB 2014
SCIENCE & TECH
Chris Tilbury
he need for humans to participate in armed conflicts could soon be over. The next generation of military hardware might be able to think and act for itself. Military hardware will soon consist of autonomous robots that know neither pity nor fear quite a step up from the current generation of UAVs and drones operated by humans from the safety of military bases hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away. Ever since drones such as the Predator were prepared and armed for use in Iraq and Afghanistan in the early 2000s, stealth weapons have played a key role in the Wests War on Terror. It was a Predator drone that located Osama Bin Laden in 2011, and it was a Predator drone that launched the missile attack earlier this month that killed Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud. The drones have clocked more than 200,000 hours of flying time in Afghanistan since their inception. Drone operators work in a safe environment, sometimes in a completely different country to the one that the aircraft flies in. They make judgment calls based on the situation they see on the computer screen in front of them. The success of the program has meant that the US Air Force is training more people to fly drones than it is conventional aircraft. The legal battle over whether drones such as the Predator and the Reaper contravene international law is still raging. The basis of the argument against their use is that actions viewed thousands of miles away on a computer screen can be misinterpreted and the response could have severe consequences. That legal battle could get a whole lot tougher with the next generation. Future weapons will remove the
human element from the equation completely; they will be able to engage targets by themselves, maximizing destruction. They will represent the age-old saying: Shoot first, ask questions later. But what will the next generation bring? Of course, most next generation technology is carefully guarded and the plans are kept safely under lock and key, but you may have experienced the next generation of military hardware already. If youve played Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, youll be familiar with futuristic military technology such as Dragonfire quadrotors and the AGR, or Autonomous Ground Robot. That technology simply isnt that far away. Take the Lodestar, for example. The Lodestar is a multi player kill streak that allows the player to control missiles fired from an aircraft flying above the map. The Lodestar will become a real piece of military equipment when the US Air Force commissions the X47-B for an active combat role. The X47-B is currently in the demonstration and testing phase. It is an Unmanned Combat Air System capable of flying over targets without human control think of it as similar to the creation depicted in the 2005 film Stealth. The parallels between the virtual and real world dont stop there, though. Tom Clancys Ghost Recon Future Soldier also featured future military technology. The liveaction trailer for the game included something similar to Call of Dutys AGR, capable of engaging targets without the need of human interaction of acknowledgement. It wouldnt be a lengthy stretch of the imagination to realize the people that worked on Black Ops 2 probably looked at the images of the X47B available at the time.
Future weapons will remove the human element from the equation completely; they will be able to engage targets by themselves, maximizing destruction. They will represent the age-old saying: Shoot first, ask questions later.
are the not-too-distant future of
Step back to reality

This technology is being developed and it will be able to make its own decisions. Organizations such as Samsung and G-NIUS have developed early versions of military vehicles and equipment that can operate on their own. Take G-NIUS, for example. Its website states it is a leading Israeli unmanned ground systems company. They boast their technology can provide a solution to almost any defense situation, whether it is 24/7, all-weather, allterrain, homeland security missions you are interested in, or keeping your human assets out of harms way and revolutionizing the way in which your combat support and force protection tasks are being currently accomplished G-NIUS has the precise solutions you are after. One of its latest creations is the Guardium
Mk.1. Guardium is an armed robotic vehicle that employs state-of-the-art technologies and various combinations of payloads. It has been developed for deployment in closed perimeter sites such as airports, energy plants, and borders. If you thought the G-NIUS was worrying, Samsungs SGR-1 will probably give pacifists nightmares for the rest of their lives. SGR-1 is, essentially, a sentry gun created to monitor the hotly contested Korean demilitarized zone. Its sensors can detect a human face at a distance of two miles and is capable of firing a machine gun or grenade launcher without human operation. The technology is also being used by Israel to monitor its borders.
Life under robot control

Imagine a world where robots dominate everything. There are some pretty good examples from the movie world I, Robot, for one, springs to mind, although that is slightly different in the sense that the robots are used
in the domestic sphere, rather than the military one. The principle is very similar, though. If robots replace soldiers on the battlefield, war will descend into a game of chess where Generals will move their robotic pieces around the board without a care or concern for what actions are taking place. If Generals are just moving piece of metal around a war zone, is that not the final realization of technological power? War will no longer be about defending a group of people or a nation, it will be about who has the biggest and best weapons. It wont matter whether removing a dictator is a good or bad thing if his weapons are more advanced because other nations simply wont be able to compete. Imagine the international arms trade if robotic weapons entered the market. The demand for weapons that can control themselves will be huge. They would be a gamechanger for nations that have been embroiled in lengthy civil wars or armed conflicts. Take the Taliban, for example. If they were able to source G-NIUS robots from Israel it would
devastate Afghanistan completely, whether western powers were still present or not.
Its not all bad

While most military technology under development will be used in combat situations to kill enemies, some companies are working on ways to make war greener. Just last week the Pentagon was treated to a showcase of upcoming developments by a G-4 Operational Energy team. The team showcased a number of technologies including new engines for Black Hawk and Apache helicopters that could save fourteen million gallons of fuel each year. Also on display were solar-powered blankets and lighter, more efficient, batteries for existing technology. Both are designed to mean that soldiers carry less weight, although they could also be applied to the non-military world as part of relief efforts for humanitarian crises and natural disasters. But what does it all mean for humanity? Soldiers may actually
have a use-by date. In 20 to 30 years, we may inhabit a planet where foot soldiers are no longer necessary and robotic equipment has replaced them. It would be narrow-minded to jump to such a conclusion, though. Just as the debate over the use of the current generation of drones is still raging on, that of the next generation is sure to last much longer. Removing the human element completely is very dangerous. The list of legal questions is lengthy and human rights campaigners will be sure to make the process long and arduous, and rightly so. The legal process has already begun, even though much of the technology is still in research and development. A vote by the United Nations Convention on Conventional Weapons has meant a multinational team will begin to assess the technology with the aim of enforcing a preemptive prohibition before any of the technology reaches the production line. ---The Global Research
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21 FEB 2014
TECHNOLOGY
Narcissist Generation
Distractions of the
Psychiatrists have found that mobile phone socialization is exclusive and interferes or replaces interfacing with people on a much needed social level. This tool is creating what some experts call the Narcissist Generation - those who truly believe they are so important and popular with their thoughts that they make themselves available to whoever needs them.
Dr Fawad Kaiser
and it means being acceptable in the society and successful in social interactions. For the privileged ones, barely presentable is a compromised option reserved for the weak and unfavorable. Presentable, therefore is relative and like life, it isnt fair. It is also found that mobile phone choice and especially usage is consistent with respondents general consumption styles. The research showed that addictive use was common among females and was related to their trendy and impulsive consumption styles and males were instead found more technology enthusiastic and trend conscious. Over time however, it is appearing now that genders are becoming more alike in mobile phone choice, yet individual differences in consumption patterns remain obviously identifiable. Interestingly, mobile phones are developing at a pace closing in to acquire the status of personal digital assistants (PDAs) and many users tend to be unaware of the dependence hidden beneath their regular use. What started out as a means of appropriate social interaction has now become a status symbol and a new age identification marker, and it does not even have a capped material value: its just a mobile phone. With more than five billion mobile phones in use today, the link between materialism and electronic devices is creating a generation of learned compulsive behavior and psychologists are worried to analyze this substantial amount of compulsion. Studies reported by the Journal
M
FEB 2014 22
obile phone markets are one of the most rapidly growing markets today due to increased competition and change. Thus, it is of clinical interest to look at users buyingdecision process and the factors that finally determine consumer choice in why they buy expensive and different mobile phone brands. For the same reason all but only the wealthiest buy status symbols. To be fair, this is just an honest expression of incredulity, why do people spend so much money on useless status symbols like mobile phones, handbags, belts,
clothes and shoes and televisions and cars? One thing that transpires is that one persons illogical belief is another persons survival skill. And nothing is more logical than trying to survive. We want to belong. And, not just for the psychic rewards, but belonging to one group at the right time can mean the difference between unemployment and employment, a good job as opposed to a bad job, housing or a shelter, and so on. Someone mentioned in a debate that people can be presentable with affordable options, but then the issue is not about being presentable. Presentable is the bare minimum of social civility
of Behavioral Sciences show that young adults send an average of 109.5 text messages daily and check their mobile phones an average of 60 times a day. Psychiatrists have found that mobile phone socialization is exclusive and interferes or replaces interfacing with people on a much needed social level. This tool is creating what some experts call the Narcissist Generation - those who truly believe they are so important and popular with their thoughts that they make themselves available to whoever needs them. Social studies describe people with only a few social contacts compensate for their introversion, low-self-esteem, and low life-satisfaction by using new mobile phone for popularity, thus corroborating the principle of the poor get richer (i.e., the social compensation hypothesis). Likewise, people higher in narcissistic personality traits tend to be more active on smart phones in order to present themselves favourable socially because the virtual environment empowers them to construct their ideal selves. Mobile phone, twitter and text addiction breeds the misplaced sense of self-importance making the young sycophantic susceptible to non-gainful unintelligent conversation. This meaningless interaction is time consuming and can displace activities of greater personal value. The new Diagnostic and Statistical Manual V (DSM V), 5th edition, bible for mental health care professionals, has included an appendix to promote research of electronic gadgets addiction. In practice, that would include addiction to any electronic device which generates response behavior that presents as Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) and may be contributing to Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD). From a psychological view point, while these devices are increasing social connectivity, they are decreasing healthy social connectivity and interfering with human interaction that fosters intimacy and closeness. College survey shows that students carry mobile phones and use them during class and some experiments have demonstrated that mobile phones distract students from learning. Similarly studies of driving indicate that the conversational aspects of using mobile phones generate high risks from divided attention and drivers using mobile phones reveal that the cognitive distraction of conversations significantly increase accident risk. The National Safety Council has published a literature review explaining why cognitive load from mobile phones produces inattention blindness for drivers. Studies showed that listening to music or even to a recorded book did not produce
high accident risks, as did conversing on mobile phones. Legal penalties are therefore strictly enforced where drivers are found using mobile phones without hands free sets while diving. The highly renowned French postmodernist Jean Baudrillard once said: "We live in a world where there is more and more information, and less and less meaning. To move forward from this age of being obsessively connected through mobile phones is having a mass amount of reassurance and self-security at your fingertips but it seems unlikely that we could ever just cut it out of our lives. Since there is barrage of new options thrown in the market by multinational mobile phone companies periodically there remains the increased risk of cellular addiction and a lack of real connections for people and there is no quick fix solution and there may never be one! The writer works as a consultant forensic psychiatrist with the HUNTERCOMBE Group UK.
23 FEB 2014
REPORT
Partnership for health

S
Dr. A K Wazir
The Sindh Context
indh Province has a population of approximately 43 million, with nearly twenty million living in Karachi. The health care services are provided through the public and private infrastructure and delivery system. Sindh is peculiar to have a robust and growing private sector in health that provides services not only to the urban but also to the rural population. Recent evidence claims the health needs of urban and rural population in Sindh are catered through the private sector more than the public sector. It is supported by the fact that the practitioners consulted for diarrhea treatment at Private Dispensaries and Hospitals were 78% in rural as compared to 67% in urban areas (PSLM 2010-11). Likewise 35% of the total child delivery cases in Sindh occurred at private hospitals and clinics as compared to 12 % at Government hospitals RHCs and BHUs while 52% of cases occurred at outside the institutional setup i.e. at home (PSLM 2010-11).The reasons for the low utilization of the public sector facilities can be found in the lack of scientific management and weak governance of these services and facilities. On any given day, an average of 30-
40% of providers are absent from their public practice locations (Agboatwalla 2010). The shortage of female providers limits access for women patients. Political patronage influences public service commission appointments, as evidenced by frequent transfers and appointments, even when positions are not budgeted (Zaida 2011). In this background, skills and strengths of the private partners offer opportunity for enhancing the partnerships. The province is not strange to such partnerships. In Sindh, 90% of BHUs were contracted out to Peoples Primary Health care Initiative (PPHI) in 2007
that offered a respite and helped increase outpatient attendance, Ante- Natal Care (ANC) visits, family planning visits, measles vaccinations, school and community sessions, lab and diagnostics tests (Martinez 2011). Patient perceptions of quality were also higher at PPHI facilities. Social sectors like health require safeguarding the needs and rights of end- users/ patients with a focus to ensure access, equity and quality of services. Regulating and harnessing the private sector is critically important to protect the health of the population and is part of the stewardship mission of the DOH and the
Health Sector Strategy. Evidence is accumulating in diverse settings showing that Performance Based Financing (PBF) and Performance Based Contracting (PBC) can improve the quality and quantity of priority health services. PBF institutionalizes a continuing cycle of performance improvement, through routine performance measurement and incentives for improvement. PBF verification and contract cycles institutionalize a process of continuing health system improvement. It involves Management and/or Service Delivery of basic packages at public health facilities from the DOH to NGOs. Equity,
quality and cost-efficiency are variably included as contracting-out objectives. The contract design allows public health services for the poor by contracting basic and essential packages of services (e.g. Essential Service Delivery Package-ESDP, Minimum Service Delivery Package- MSDP) from the DOH to private registered/accredited providers and facilities. Contracting-out delivery of essential services to private sector providers is well-developed in high income and some middle-income countries but not in Low Income Countries (LIC). Results-based Financing (RBF) is a family of health service purchasing strategies that have rapidly expanded in many countries in the last decade. An accepted definition of RBF is any program that rewards the delivery of one or more outputs or outcomes with one or more incentives, financial or otherwise, upon verification that the agreed-upon result has actually been delivered (Musgrove 2013). Performance Based Financing (PBF) is a restricted subset of RBF with three requirements: 1. Incentives are directed to providers, not beneficiaries. 2. Awards are purely financial payment is by Fee-for-Service for specified services 3. Payment depends explicitly on the degree to which services are of approved quality, as specified by protocols for processes or outcomes. Models of various degree of autonomy for hospital help increase the efficiency while protecting the rights of the patients. The key to this approach is decentralizing hospital management, granting autonomy, developing efficient management structures and cost-sharing financing arrangements, building incentive structures for staff, investing in institutional strengthening and enhancing accountability. A key feature of autonomous hospitals is their governing boards. It is imperative to define the roles, composition and appointment, powers and authorities, accountabilities and specific duties of hospital boards. Sindh PPP Act 2010 and the policy provide the legal support to the contractual agreements. However the Act allows the sectors and sub-sectors to develop specific contracts suitable to their requirements. Health sector need to develop specific guidelines to safe guard the access, equity and quality indicators to be put in the guidelines and agreements. Likewise the performance indicators in health sector are very peculiar and require special attention. The funding pattern and collaboration between the public sector and the private sector could take any one of the following forms:
i. Public funding with private service delivery and private management. ii. Public as well as private funding with private service delivery and private management. iii. Public as well as private funding with public/private service delivery and public/private/joint management. There are many un-tapped opportunities in the public sector allocations and private sector wealth available to provide financial support to credible partnerships in health.
Provincial budget allocation, Sindh Health Strategy budget is based upon increasing the provincial health budget to 8% of total provincial budget, up to $9.5 per capita. The largest increase in the Sindh Health Strategy is to increase current operating budgets of district budgets by approximately 50%, which could be used to finance PBF. Viability Gap Funding (VGF), the Government will provide VGF for PPP projects that have a strong social justification but fall short of financial viability because of affordability constraints imposed on tariffs. VGF will be an explicit subsidy that is performance driven (based on the private service provider achieving measurable outputs) and targeted towards socio-economically disadvantaged users or groups of users, such as women among others. Project development facility, Government agencies in Sindh have capacity and resource constraints and find it sometimes difficult to develop PPP projects that deliver value for the Government and consumers and, at the same time, are attractive to private investors. Social security and health taxes,
the Government of Sindh (GoS) recognizes that social protection and provision of social safety nets have a major role to play in promoting pro-poor growth and tackling exclusion
FEB 2014
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25 FEB 2014
REPORT
sector partnerships, including that involved with the services delivery (not-for-profit and for-profit) and those who contribute or have the potential to add to financial resources (individual and corporate philanthropy), have not been developed. Moreover international donors have not been encouraged to come out of their traditional bases and program focus to invest in health needs of Sindh. Apart from the lack of appropriate and coordinated efforts to solicit the strengths of private partners including philanthropists and international donors there are following challenges that require attention to strengthen the PPP processes: Significant capacity building of the public health system is needed in contract management. There needs to be great clarification of specific management and service delivery responsibilities that are expected from the contracted entity. The major issue with contracting out at a large scale as PPHI is that there is a very low ex ante competitiveness (large numbers bidding), as no provider offers primary health care facilities at this scale. Generally also the ex-ante competitiveness that exists in the private sector cannot be taken for granted in public sector contracting out. The design as well as the implementation was exclusionary as the pivotal office of District Health Office- DHO (Health) had no role to play in the PPHI contracting out model. A few recommendations on the topic could be: 1. To develop specific Health Sector PPP Contractual Guidelines is a necessary initial step to bridge the gap between PPP Policy and sectoral needs. These guidelines will also identifyand overcome the issues of capacity of purchaser to develop and manage contract. 2. Defining the contract process and involved steps is important to develop capacity of the department. It will also help design specific/ individual service delivery packages according to the particular nature of the health facility and services required by the communities. 3. It is recommended that the Specimen Contracts are more precisely and clearly defined, and the scope and deliverable are defined after consultation with all relevant stake holders. An example of the contractual agreement is appended as annexure in detailed concept paper. 4. The contracted health facilities may be divided into smaller sets/ clusters, for example rather than giving all facilities over to one contractor, several service providers may be contracted, this would rationalize the size of the contracted out facilities, as well as ensure healthy, post contract award, competition, thus improving the service delivery, which would directly benefit the people. 5. Provincial and district health administrations should change its role from mere purchaser to a purchaser focusing on monitoring and evaluation based on agreed upon performance indicators and goals. The extension of contracts should be based on quality not just quantity of services offered by the provider. 6. Provincial Partnership Board is important to translate the sectoral needs and priorities for the partnerships in health. The Sindh PPP Policy recognizes and leaves a space for such sectoral regulatory body to identify policy, structure and system that promote and protect access, equity and quality of the services. It also will ensure credibility and transparency of the involved processes and harness trust of the stakeholders. 7. Unit (Hospital) Management Board is recommended an autonomous board to run the operations of the unit/ hospital in accordance to the local conditions and needs. 8. Capacity Building is needed to manage Public Private Partnerships in the department; Dissemination of policy, tools and specific skills in interpreting PPP policy, instruments, role of partners, conflict resolution skills, etc. 9. Developing Local/ Community based PPP programs more holistically and innovatively through Area based or UC community mobilization and participation for sustainable impacts. 10. Grant-in-Aid (GIA) a necessity today targeted towards the poor and under-served areas. Its resumption and use in the financing the performance based contracts. 11. Contracting out selective services including capacity building and management solutions to private sector/CSOs. 12. Innovative partnerships, exploring and developing it with industry (Pharmaceutical, Health Insurance, Private Care Providers), education and universities for improved solutions to both public and non-elite private sector. 13. Linking PPPs with training, research and innovative initiatives.
inequality. Direct provisions include employment based guarantees (such as Employees Old Age Benefit Institution (EOBI), Workers Welfare Fund (WWF), direct transfers (Zakat, Pakistan Bait-ul-Mal (PBM), Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), and market based interventions (Microfinance). Disbursements under PBM and BISP have been included in the budgetary part of the pro-poor expenditures. The large private sector is essentially unregulated with quality tertiary care, unsafe unlicensed health practitioners, and hybrids thereof (HLSP 2012). Large out-of-pocket expenditures are the primary source of health funding and are barrier to care causing financial hardship for most of the population.
International donors
Donor spending, currently only 1% of total health expenditure, is estimated to increase to equal of government spending or 11.1PKR. Philanthropic spending is estimated to increase to 15% of current government spending.
Pak-India trade, good for both countries

Manzar Abbas
compared to other regions of the world. On both sides, there are people and groups that have made careers out of preaching hatred against the other side. They have been socialized into a negative narrative. However, the hostile relations cannot be normalized until they look beyond the historical baggage and foresee some out-of-the-box solution. Indias immense uncertainty hovers over the next general election, which is due by May 2014. The leading contender to be the prime minister in India is Narendra Modi, of the BJP. Mr. Modi is a Hindu nationalist, a modernizer and strongman who currently runs the state of Gujarat, bordering with Pakistan. It is believed that Modi would be at a better place than others in order to make compromises and deliver a broad peace deal with Pakistan. Despite having potential, the bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and India is as low as $2.7 billion. In contrast, Pakistans bilateral trade with China during the last financial year (July-June) was $9 billion. However, the volume of informal trade is said to be many times higher than the formal trade. Legal trade can be enhanced to $25 billion in the next 10 years through collective efforts of business communities of Pakistan and India. In recent times, there have been healthy developments advantageous in resuming business ties between the neighbors. Interestingly, the business community on both sides is convinced that liberalization of bilateral trade would be in their mutual interest. The policy makers also seem to have overcome their reservations and a momentum has been built up in the last several months to move the process forward. The breakthrough came in the form of Pakistans decision to grant most favored nation MFN status to India and moving away from a highly restrictive positive list of items that could be imported from India to a negative list. The negative list was to be phased out by December 2012 but there has been some unexpected delay due to the concerns expressed by the agriculturalists of Pakistan. The negative list of importable items has been reduced from 8,000 items 1209 items. The remaining 6,800 items can be imported from India now. The previous positive list only had 2,000 items. This is a significant change whereby 85 percent of tradable goods can now be procured from India compared to 25 percent a year ago. Pakistan and India together make the biggest population of the world and the largest consumer market. Collectively, they can bring lots of social and economic benefits to their people.
Corporate giving
Corporate Philanthropic spending is estimated to increase to 15% of current government spending. According to an assessment the total donations given by the corporate in a year exceeds PKR 8 billion (Pakistan Center of Philanthropy- PCP) in 2012. Fortunately the 25 top companies that contribute over 75% of the donation amount operate from Karachi Sindh. It is also favorable that most of this donation amount (40%) is pledged for strengthening health sector.
Individual giving
Individual Philanthropy is part of the cultural tradition in Pakistan. According to a study conducted by the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) in 1998, the volume of indigenous philanthropy by Pakistani individuals stood at US $ 1.5 billion. This included monetary giving (42 %), giving in kind (16 %) and value of time volunteered (42%). The reforms strategy spells that private
The author can be reached at lubazad@hotmail.com
hen it comes to trade relations between India and Pakistan, both countries have created highly nationalistic narratives of why their relations are troubled. Each side projects itself as pursuing the correct course of action and blames the other side for being responsible for conflict and tension in the region. Of late, the relations have suffered severe strain as trade at Line of Control and bus services are put on hold following bilateral stand-off over narcotics smuggling. The intransigence between these two countries has had deleterious effect on intraregional trade flows within the South Asia region. Consequently, the region remains marginalized in regional trade integration
FEB 2014
26
27 FEB 2014
BOOK REVIEW
REPORT
The untold story of the people of Azad Kashmir

newspapers (both defunct and in circulation) and legal documents. Raking through six decades worth of conflict and neglect is arguably a daunting task. Christopher divides these findings into two parts. The first delves into the brutal history of a strife torn land with its accompanying string of insurgencies; the second deals with the economic, administrative and political side of the equation. By adding layers of cold, hard facts to the sentimentality driven story line, he creates a powerful counter-narrative that allows readers to re-assess the regions troubling history by asking them to abandon their sanctimonious stance. Sneddens sobering account is a revealing portrait that attempts to clarify the status of Azad Kashmir, a landlocked region with a poor and dependant economy, endless administrative woes, its people shortchanged by bickering neighbors and a political system unflatteringly described as a constrained, controlled, and compromised democracy. His book employs a fresh approach that encourages the marginalized people of the valley to step forward and stake a claim to their heritage. He then offers solutions to the messy debate hoping that both nations will quit the intractable bilateral dispute over J&K like the British quit the Subcontinent and let J&Kites run things for a change. Every year since 1990, 5th February has been designated as Kashmir Day as a mark of solidarity and Pakistans desirability in terms of geographic and economic reasons is duly acknowledged but the writer asserts that both nations, underestimated the disunited J&K peoples deep religious differences and strongly held, but differing, political desires, as a result of which neither India nor Pakistan was guaranteed majority popular support. He goes on to establish that Jammu & Kashmir - J&K, was a disunited and essentially undeliverable entity in 1947. Accession, then is not such a straightforward matter as previously thought, since the book calmly announces that prominent Hindus favored Pakistan while many Muslims did not. It also challenges fiery rhetoric used to arm the Indian propaganda machine regarding Pakistans interference in October 1947. At the same time, it assigns Pakistan its share
Financial irregularities snags EOBI affairs

Shiraz Nizami
T
of the blame over later events that ensured that the road to ruling Muzaffarabad passes through Islamabad. The popular narrative of invading Pakhtoon tribesmen who infiltrated Kashmir remains in place but his investigation acquits Pakistan of fermenting all the unrest, and finds Pakistanis silence to the charges surprising, given how India used this to strengthen its position. Blame is neatly divided and later, Pakistan is called out for demoting Azad Kashmir to local authority level, rather than empowering it as a genuine and dynamic alternative government for all of J&K. The Untold Story of the People of Azad Kashmir provides valuable insight into a sixty year old crisis and attempts to exorcise ghosts of entitlement and bitterness that continue to haunt the region. The saga of Kashmir gets a revised beginning and a spruced up middle with helpful sign posts pointing to an alternate ending in this enlightening piece of research that gives decades of hostility some much needed context. The writer is a freelance journalist who blogs at http://afrahjamal.blogspot.com. She can be reached at afrahjh@hotmail.com and on twitter @Afrahjh
Afrah Jamal
our wars and countless skirmishes later, Kashmirs reputation as a nuclear flash point remains undisputed. It is a volatile patch of land that has a recurring role in South Asian conflicts, emotional round table conferences, and fiery drawing room debates. Where a partial understanding of the conflict adds to the strained relationship, and cements the arch-rivalry status -the long simmering resentment regarding both accession and ownership casts a long shadow over the Indo-Pak region. A forensic study examines the convoluted plot by removing distortions from historical records contaminated by sentiment and governed by self-interest. The accompanying voice-over addresses people on both sides of the divide allegedly provided with skewed statistics by their respective spin doctors. The state sponsored palette with its dramatic overtones is quickly discarded in favor of a more neutral grey in Christopher Sneddens new book that views Kashmir from a different vantage point. The Untold Story of the People of Kashmir broadens the canvas tracing the problematic roots of a thorny issue while confronting the tower of misconceptions crafted to cloud judgment. It then sets out to determine how the people of Kashmir fared while both Pakistan and India called dibs on their home. Christopher Snedden is a politicostrategic analyst specializing in South Asian affairs and Director of Strategic and International Relations at the ASIA CALLING consultancy. His research is based on interviews with politicians, bureaucrats, journalists, and
he courts have yet to decide the fate of huge and allegedly corrupt investment in the real estate by the bigwigs of state-managed Employees Old-age Benefit Institution (EOBI), while the Auditor General of Pakistan surfaced another corruption case in the same institution. The fresh revelations are about shady deals of lands in Karachi, Lahore and Sukkur. The EOBI officials made these purchases at higher prices as compared to market rates and caused loss to national exchequer to the tune of Rs388.83 million. EOBI is an organization meant to manage workers funds and has a vital role in providing social security to poverty stricken factory labors. The institution does not receive any financial assistance from the government for carrying out its operations. A contribution equal to 5% of minimum wages has to be paid by the employers of all the industrial and commercial organizations where EOBI act is applicable. In the last fiscal year (July 2012 to August 2013), EOBI collected Rs1,609 million from employees working in industries. Currently, the EOBI is the custodian of a fund worth Rs100 billion (approximately). Despite having a huge fund of worth trillion rupees, on the event of retirement it gives away a paltry of Rs3,600 monthly to the pensioners. The EOBI failed to increase the
minimum scale of pension only because of massive corruption in the organization. Auditors General report for the year 2012-13 revealed that the funds from poverty stricken factory labors had huge financial irregularities to the tune of Rs388.83 million because of making unauthorized purchases of properties at higher rates. The Auditor General has recommended the investigation of these serious irregularities and the fixation of responsibility to the person involved. The Operating Manual of the EOBI provides that before purchase, valuation of land/ buildings shall be carried out through government controlled consultants i.e. PEPAC, NESPAK, REMCO etc. only. The audit report mentioned two cases where the EOBI highups made purchases at higher rates compared to the market value. In the year 2011-12, the EOBI management invited bids to buy a piece of land measuring 19,360 sq. yd., located near Karachi airport. The piece of land was owned by Mr. Deh Mehran. As a contradiction to the rules, the EOBI hired a private firm M/s AAA Partnership (Pvt.) Ltd, to evaluate the land price. The evaluation firm rated the monetary value of land at Rs95,000 per sq. yd. The audit team observed that the assessment of land by M/s AAA Partnership (Pvt.) Ltd was only an exercise to determine pre decided value
and was also wastage of fee paid to evaluation firm. Even then the EOBI management ignored the evaluation by a private firm and purchased the land at Rs104, 500 per sq yard, causing a loss of Rs 183.92 million to national exchequer. Still, when contacted, the EOBI authorities insist that the purchase was made in accordance with the rules and approved by BoT. Another example of such malpractice was observed in the procurement of land in Lahore and Sukkur. According to the latest audit accounts of the EOBI, it was found that in response to bids invitation by the EOBI for purchase of land, two properties were considered by the management for purchase of land located in Lahore, measuring 01 Kanalsand 8 Marlas at Lower Mall Lahore and another in Sukkur, measuring 2,428 sq.yards located at Military Road. These properties were evaluated at Rs84 million and Rs120.91 million respectively. Surprisingly, the EOBI officers did not negotiate and purchased the properties at bid prices of Rs204.91 million, and again made a loss to the national exchequer. The audit observed that the EOBI didnt announce the date and time for opening the bids and the bids were not opened in the presence of the bidders. The properties were evaluated/assessed by private evaluation firms instead of government controlled consultants, like PEPAC. NESPAK, REMCO. etc. The audit team recommended investigation of the matter for fixing responsibility on the person(s) at fault. In recent years, a number of incidents of corruption were unearthed in the EOBI, each of them were worth billions. The government needs a complete overhaul to eliminate corruption that has a very bad impact on the financial health of the pensioners institution. -----------------------------------------------Reference: Auditor General of Pakistans Audit Report on The Accounts of Public Sector Enterprises Audit Year 2012-13, Pages 154155
FEB 2014
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29 FEB 2014
REPORT
more or less been stagnant during the last 10 years and have been hovering around $300 to 400 million. In 2012 Pakistans exports for the first time crossed the $450 million mark. The balance of trade between the two countries has historically been in favor of Saudi Arabia, due to Pakistans dependence on imports of oil and petroleum products for its local needs, which accounts for approximately 75 percent of Pakistans total imports from Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile the Saudi authorities are already in the process of lifting the ban on poultry imports from Pakistan, which will allow the country to tap into the $400 million Saudi poultry import market. channels and bridges etc, and they have been handed over to communities concerned.
Saudi concern about Afghanistan

Saud Al-Faisal said there was a need for joint efforts to eradicate the menace of terrorism. He said that international troops were being drawn from Afghanistan by the end of this year and efforts were required to stop the terrorists from regrouping and filling the gap which has been created due to the withdrawal of international forces. He said that Afghanistan was going through a critical phase and a cautious approach should be adopted to restore peace in the country especially after withdrawal of the US forces. The Prince urged that its various main stakeholders and groups should work together and prevent foreign parties from exploiting its poor security situation. Sharif reaffirmed that Pakistan remained committed to facilitating an Afghan-led peace and reconciliation process, adding that a peaceful and stable Afghanistan was in his countrys interests.
Saudi Arabias
Diplomacy of Brotherhood
including Syria and Afghanistan.
Special privileges to Saudis

Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif offered special privileges to Saudis investing in Pakistans energy, infrastructure, agriculture, livestock and other key sectors.
Prospects of Saudi Arabia investments & pledge of saudi fund for development
Prince Saud said the prospect of investing in Pakistans energy sector could be discussed during the next joint economic commission meeting. He pledged that the Saudi Fund for Development would continue to finance Pakistans development projects. Most recently, Saudi Fund for Development (SDF) has announced an additional fund of $57 million for 106-megawatts (MW) Golen Gol Hydropower Project being constructed in district Chitral of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The Saudi Fund has earlier provided financial assistance of $40 million for civil works of Golen Gol Hydropower Project. Moreover, the SDF has already completed 498 impressive schemes out of 585 for the community infrastructure restoration and rehabilitation in six tehsils of disturbed areas of Swat. According to Saudi mission in Islamabad, the schemes completed so far comprise of street pavement, link roads, drainage
Need for a new strategic relationship

The prime minister met Prince Saud and discussed bilateral and regional issues. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia need to enhance bilateral trade by holding regular meetings between its commerce ministries, the premier said. The prime minister said Pakistan and Saudi Arabia need to enhance bilateral trade to reflect the strong fraternal bonds that exist between them by holding regular meetings between the commerce ministers to explore ways of enhancing bilateral trade. About the energy situation in Pakistan, the prime minister said Pakistan would welcome investment by the kingdom in energy sector and also in other sectors like infrastructure, agriculture and livestock. There is a need to start a new strategic relationship between our two countries to further broaden and deepen the existing cordial relations, Sharif said. Pakistan supports all efforts aimed at strengthening unity among Islamic countries. The premier thanked the Saudi government for helping Pakistani workers affected by Nitaqat regulations.
Saudis stand with the will of Syrian People

On Syria, Prince Saud said the irresponsible statements by some international parties would affect the success of the Geneva II conference. I'm afraid these statements are aimed at diverting the conference from implementing the Geneva I resolutions. The Saudi minister said Syria needs a new interim coalition government with wide-ranging powers that does not include Bashar Assad or key figures in his regime. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to deepen their defence cooperation and support each others position on regional issues,
Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

also agreed to convene a meeting of their Joint Economic Commission (JEC) to discuss the various proposals for cooperation in trade, economy, investment and energy. Saudi Arabia expressed particular interest in investments in the energy sector. The two countries decided to activate their Joint Business Council (JBC) for increasing involvement of the private sector. investing in some of the areas related to Port infrastructure such as storage, warehousing etc. hotels, motels, travel and tourism, industrial sector, seafood processing and export, date processing and export, construction office spaces etc. in social sector and other. The investments in oil refinery would be vital for both the countries in the days to come.
akistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia enjoy genealogical relations that are entrenched in common faith, traditions and commonality of views on all issues of mutual interest. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have always stood by each other in testing times and the people of Pakistan deeply value relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Purposeful engagements during his two days visit, Saudi Foreign Minister, Saud Al Faisal met President Mamnoon Hussain, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Adviser on Foreign Affairs and National Security, Sartaj Aziz to make better understanding towards emerging regional and international geopolitical and geo-strategic issues.
Resumption of saudi-pak economic commission

Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar praised the resumption of the Saudi-Pak Economic Commission, which was not so active for several years. It is hoped that the revival of this Commission will provide a forum to both the countries to explore new areas of cooperation, boosting their economic strengths and potentials for mutual benefit and prosperity.
Pakistans expected privatization drive & exploration of shale gas

The government also intends to disinvest its Public Sector Entities (PSEs), which can be another area of interest to Saudi businessmen. The government is also working on a new exploration policy to tap the huge natural resources in the country especially the Shale Gas, the new revolution in the energy sector. Pakistan expects Saudi businessmen to invest in the field of exploration that would be a winwin situation.
Concluding remarks
Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia must have joint security shield, energy cooperation, and food security, joint strategy against terrorism and last but not the least extremism. Above all, both countries must initiate integrated efforts for bringing peace in the region, especially in Afghanistan. The writer is a research scholar, specializes in geo-political issues of the GCC, CIs and South East Asia. He has keen interests in cross cultural dialogue and confict resolution.
Revival of joint economic commission & joint business council

Speaking at a media conference after completing his engagements, the visiting Saudi Foreign Minister said: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan enjoy commonality of views and understanding on regional peace. The two countries
Pak-Saudi Arabias bilateral trade

According to official figures the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in 2012 stood at $4.7 billion out of which Pakistans exports to Saudi Arabia accounted for $456 million whereas imports from Saudi Arabia stood at $4.29 billion. Pakistans exports to the Kingdom have
Saudi arabias investments in Gwadar

Saudi Arabia can also participate in the development of Gwadar by financing or
FEB 2014
30
31 FEB 2014
INTERVIEW
OPINION
Pak-Russia relations
Russia to faster cooperation with Pakistan

Anvar A. Makhmutov
Deputy of Committee on International Affairs of the State of Duma
which the principal cerebral process demands. Essential principal of cognitive psychology is that individuals have no conscious experience of most of what happens in the human mind. Many functions associated with perception, memory, and information processing are conducted prior to and independently of any conscious effort. Spontaneous reaction in consciousness is the result of thinking, not the process of thinking. Weaknesses and biases inherent in human thinking processes can be alleviated by conscious application of tools and techniques that should be in the analytical mind-set toolkit of all intelligence analysts. The understanding of situation gets
Alman Haider Naqvi
n the backdrop of changing geo-political situation in Afghanistan, Russians are evaluating Pakistan with the security threats and eco-political interests in case the relations take a rout back-on-track. If security threats are lower than economic and political interest of Russia, then it will develop faster, effective and striving cooperation with Pakistan said Anvar A. Makhmutov, the Deputy of Committee on International Affairs of State Duma. While talking to Economic Affairs, he was of the view that Russia today is no more an ideological state but is a pragmatic country having its own interests. Discussing the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan, he said that stability in Afghanistan directly and indirectly will have its impact on Russia; therefore Russia needs to act in this direction very profoundly. We have had positive experience with Afghanistan in the days when it was stable and we are pursuing that today as well, for example we met with their politicians and tried to come up with certain policies in building a civilized society in
Afghanistan after 2014 he said. Moreover, Russia in past has trained many experts in Afghanistan who are serving in their respective fields and we are looking forward to continue such activities. Commenting on the present challenges that Afghanistan is also facing, he said combating smuggling, drug trafficking are hard-pressing issues for Russia. To curtail this phenomenon, Russia has been pursuing effective strategies but other regional states also have to act along these lines effectively to squeeze this phenomenon because a single country is never a victim when it spreads across borders. Responding to a question about cultural ties between Pakistan and Russia, Makhmutov said security situation in Pakistan is not only hampering Pak-Russia cultural interaction but it is also affecting economic cooperation in between these two countries. Russian artists willing to visit Pakistan feel unsafe he said. Although the strategic interests of Russia and Pakistan are the same, despite economic depression, Russia is among the developing countries. Russia is in favor of any kind of cooperation with Pakistan, which would be equally beneficial for both the countries, said Makhmutov. Talking about key challenges for PakRussia relations, he said that I do not expect any direct challenges from Pakistan but its economic component bears the brunt of political instability in the country. He said that when political situation in Pakistan was stable, Soviet Union used to build big factories and plants, even now there are opportunities that can be
implemented, but business always follows stability. Recognizing Pakistans role in the region, he said that Pakistan holds a very ideal geo-political and strategic location in the region where it can play a very significant role for regional stability and trade cooperation. Adding further, he said that the concerned authorities must come up with new projects and broad strategies which will not only promote political relations but will also help to strengthen people-to-people contact, economic and scientific cooperation. Russia has come with new institutions of economic interaction and is actively engaged in the regional and global security and economic institutions like Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Brazil Russia India, China, South Africa (BRICS), and European Union. BRICS are serious states; they are a driving force in the global economy. I am sure that a lot of states would like to be part of this club he added. Stability in Central Asia and former Soviet Union republics is important for Russia and we support them but in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan, if there is development and stability, Russia will consider it as its strategic interest, he said. Talking about the Russian President Putins visit to Pakistan in 2011, he said Mr. Putins visit was planned but postponed due to unavoidable reasons, I am sure it will take place in future he added. Almas Haider Naqvi is an Islamabad based Journalist, pursuing M.phil research on Pak-Russia Rapprochement at National University of Modern Languages.
Shaping organizations with accurate intelligence

Shaping Organisations with Accurate Intelligence
Fajar Fawad
What people perceive, how readily they perceive it, and how they process this information after receiving it are all strongly influenced by past experience, education, cultural values, role requirements, and organizational norms, as well by the specifics of the information received. Accurate intelligence analysis means we are usually referring to the quality of writing, types of analytical products, relations between intelligence analysts and agencies consuming intelligence, or organization of the analytical process. Little attention is actually devoted to improving how analysts think
greatly influenced by the mind-set through which we perceive those events. Expected reaction of the Intelligence Analysts towards many problems is to collect more information, even though analysts in many cases already have more information than they can digest. What analysts need is mostly reliable information from knowledgeable insiders to help them make good decisions. Or they require a more accurate mental model and validated analytical tools to help them get the most out of the available ambiguous and conflicting information. Heuer in his Analysis of Competing Hypotheses notes, that analysts often reject the possibility of deception because they see no evidence of it .The possibility of deception should not be rejected until it is disproved or, at least, until a systematic search for evidence has been made and none has been found. Analysts generate three principal strategies which include the application of theory, situational logic, and comparison. As compared with policy makers, intelligence analysts have more time available to analyse rather
than analogize. Intelligence analysts tend to be good historians, with a large number of historical precedents available for recall. The greater the number of potential analogues an analyst has at his or her disposal, the greater the likelihood of selecting an appropriate one. The greater the depth of an analysts knowledge, the greater the chances the analyst will perceive the differences as well as the similarities between two situations. Even under the best of circumstances, however, inferences based on comparison with a single analogous situation probably are more prone to error than most other forms of inference. A more accurate analogy for describing how intelligence analysis should work is medical diagnosis. The doctor observes symptoms of what is happening, uses his or her specialized knowledge of how the body works to develop hypotheses that might explain these observations, conducts tests to collect additional information to evaluate the hypotheses, then makes a diagnosis. This medical analogy focuses attention on the ability to identify and evaluate all plausible hypotheses. Collection is focused narrowly on information that will help to discriminate the relative probability of alternate hypothesis. To the extent that this medical analogy is the more appropriate guide to understanding the analytical process, there are implications for the allocation of limited intelligence resources. While analysis and collection are both important, the medical analogy attributes more value to analysis and less to collection than the mosaic metaphor. It is urged that organisations using intelligence analysts take steps to establish a conducive environment that promotes and rewards the kind of critical thinking. It should expand funding for research on the role such mental processes play in shaping analytical judgments and foster development of tools to assist analysts in assessing information. Organisations and marketing agencies can rely on sharp cognitive performance by its intelligence analysts. It is critical that they must stay abreast of studies on how the mind worksi.e., on how analysts reach judgments. Although this changed view is becoming conventional wisdom, the intelligence consumer agencies have only begun to unravel the outer core of its implications. Intelligence Analysts can observe and get a feel for these problems in small-group and organizational processes which would aid in securing successful outcome in simple and complicated situations. The writer is a Forensic Psychologist at the University of York and has presented research papers at International Psychiatry and Psychology Conferences.
FEB 2014
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33 FEB 2014
ENVIRONMENT
to introduce flood tolerant
Pakistan prepares
varieties
rice
irst time in many years, farmer Zulfiqar Ali cannot afford to sow winter wheat. Damages to his standing rice crop from heavy monsoon rains last year has left him Saleem Shaikh penniless. My rice crop on 18 hectares was flattened by lashing rains in July, said Ali, standing next to his paddy field in Sialkot district, some 190 km (120 miles) from Islamabad, Pakistans capital. I have already landed in a debt trap, and my children have been hungry for many days. Although Pakistan produces enough rice to meet both its domestic and export needs, the countrys longer-term food security is at risk, as demand for the staple crop continues to grow and increasingly extreme weather threatens yields. Experts say the solution lies in adopting flood-resilient and highyielding rice varieties, but the government is doing too little to promote these, leaving farmers like Ali exposed to economic ruin. Ali is now worried about how he will clear the loan of 240,000 Pakistani rupees (around $2,300) he borrowed from a moneylender earlier in the year to buy his rice seed. Some 150,000 hectares (370,000 acres) are brought under paddy in Sialkot every year in June or July. The crop is harvested in September and October, and the land is then prepared for planting wheat in November. Farmers typically use earnings from selling their rice harvest to meet household expenditures, clear their debts and sow the next crop. But 85 percent of rice fields in Sialkot were hit by devastating rains and floods in 2013, according to Ibrahim Mughal, chairman of Agri Forum Pakistan, a national farmers association based in Lahore. Although Pakistan (has) managed to bring more area under rice, above-normal rains and subsequent riverine flooding in Punjab and Sindh where over 70 percent of the countrys rice is produced have
Last year we sold the finest quality of aromatic rice for 10,000 rupees ($94) per 100 kilo. But now it sells for above 14,500 rupees ($136) per 100 kilo
dashed hopes for bumper rice production, he said. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) downgraded its forecast for Pakistans rice production in its November 2013 Rice Market Monitor because of the past years torrential rains and flooding. In the financial year 2013-14, the FAO expects Pakistan to produce around 8.7 million tonnes of paddy - 0.6 million tonnes less than the target of 9.3 million tonnes set by the Federal government. Rice is sown on 3 million hectares (7.4 million acres) of land in Pakistan. More than 1.6 million hectares have been affected by rain and floods, according to officials in the Food Security and Research Ministry. The FAO forecasts that Pakistan will have 2.9 million tonnes of rice available for export in 2014, 3 percent less than that of 2013. However, Raja Ali Khan Baloch, parliamentary secretary at the Food Security and Research Ministry, argues that the country has no shortage of rice. Despite the crop losses, adequate rice will still be available for achieving export targets and domestic consumption, he said. Nonetheless Baloch cautioned that the country would suffer on both fronts if extreme weather events continue and if flood-resilient varieties of rice are not introduced among farmers. A particular concern is that demand for rice in Pakistan is growing along with the countrys population which is 180 million currently. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, domestic rice consumption grew to 3 million tonnes in 2013 from 2.4 million tonnes in 2011, a 25 percent increase. Commodity dealers say reports of flood-related damage to rice crops have hiked prices on the wholesale and retail markets. Last year we sold the finest quality of aromatic rice for 10,000 rupees ($94) per 100 kg. But now it sells for above 14,500 rupees ($136) per 100 kg, said Sheraz Ahmad, a rice exporter and chief executive of MS Enterprises in Karachi. Any downward change in rice production means escalation in hunger and malnutrition, warned Abid Suleri, a food security expert and executive director of the Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy Institute. The possibility of a decline in production has wider economic consequences too. Pakistan exports rice to countries in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia. After cotton, rice is the countrys biggest source of foreign exchange, accounting for over 40 percent and worth $2 billion annually, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. Pervaiz Amir, an agricultural scientist and former member of the Prime Ministers Task Force on Climate Change, said flood-resilient crop varieties are the way forward to avoid - or at least reduce - damage to crops that are critical to food security. Sensitizing farmers about the advantages of these varieties is important to increase demand for them, he said. But Pakistans agricultural researchers have failed on this count, Agri Forums Mughal said. Farmers have been left with no option but to sow old rice varieties that are not flood-resistant and yield less than 485 kg rice per hectare, as compared to improved flood-resistant varieties sown in India, Bangladesh, and Taiwan that yield 890 to 990 kg per hectare, he said. Senior officials at the Food Security and Research Ministry said the joint venture with IRRI, funded by a $1 million grant from the Asian Development Bank, began in August last year. Under the project, led by the Punjab Agriculture Research Board (PARB) in Lahore, IRRI is providing technical assistance to develop rice varieties that can survive floods, droughts and heat waves. PARB head Mubarak Ali hopes that flood and drought-resistant varieties - which are now in an experimental phase - will be introduced to farmers by the end of this year. Saleem Shaikh is climate change and development journalist.
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35 FEB 2014
ECONOMY
Qatars
Unparalleled socio-conomic prosperity
Tausif Ur Rehman
countrys stability. It is one of the ideal destinations for FDIs & FPIs in the region.
contracts have recently been awarded. In addition to this, financial services benefited from the booming economy, growing at an annual rate of 10.5 percent with 5.8 percent in the first quarter alone. Government and social services, together with electricity, gas and water, all grew in line with the additional demand from the growing population. The key driver of growth will therefore continue to be the non-hydrocarbon sector at least until 2015, when the Barzan gas project is expected to start production. It is predicted that large fiscal and current account surpluses would provide Qatar with ample resources to invest in major infrastructure projects, pushing further the process of economic diversification into a manufacturing and services hub. Different Categories
Efficient goods market High-quality framework institutional
revenues but growth will moderate to 4.6 percent in 2014.
digit growth in construction, transport and communication, and financial, real estate and business services. The oil and gas sector only expanded by 1 percent year-on-year in Q2 2013, reflecting
Ranking
3rd 4th
he Qatars Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDP&S) forecasted that growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) during the current fiscal year would grow by 5.3 percent. Different Qatars official figures suggest that over the past six years, its economy grew over five times in size during 2002 to 2008, at an average annual rate of 31.6 percent from $US19.4 billion in 2002 to $US100.4 billion in 2008. Due to which Qatar represents a sustained model of macro-economic development. Due to diversified but integrated policies initiatives, constant economic liberalization, robust service sector, and substantial growth in manufacturing and construction i.e. over 10 percent, the Qatars macro-economy achieved 5.3 percent during 2013. According to Qatar central bank (December, 2013), its growth is expected to moderate to 4.5 percent in 2014. The balance of payments and fiscal surpluses would remain healthy in the days to come. The comparative study of the above, table shows that over the past years Qatars economy has undergone a huge and unprecedented growth. The government of Qatar
% Real GDP growth Nominal growth Consumer inflation GDP price 2013a 4.8 5.3 3.5 5.4 25.7 2013 5.3 8.6 3.6 8.1 26.5 2014 4.5 4.6 3.6 4.7 21.7
adopted a comprehensive strategy that resulted in building a solid and diversified economic base meaning to decrease the dependence on oil and natural gas and stand against the fluctuations of world economy. According to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts, growth in the region will pick up from 3.3 percent in 2013 to 4.4 percent in 2014. QNB Group forecasts somewhat higher growth of 4.5-5 percent in 2014, with Qatar leading the region in 2013 and 2014. It is the diversification policy now that pays the dividends. The sources of national income have been further increased. The economys production base has been widened. The healthy relationships between publicprivate sectors have been enhanced. Qatar has also worked on preparing a favorable investment atmosphere to attract foreign capitals to invest in sustainable and comprehensive development projects, taking advantage of the
Stable macroeconomic environment
6th
Qatar Economic Insight report (December, 2013) indicates that manufacturing remained the fastest growing sector 12.5 percent boosted by production from the new Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities. Construction is now booming, growing by 11.7 percent as an indicator that the Qatars infrastructure development program is gathering steam. The acceleration in economic activity is expected to be driven by large infrastructure projects that are being implemented in Qatar including the $US35bn metro and railway project for which
Real GDP 2013 5.0 5.0 4.7 7.0 5.2 4.2 5.0 6.5 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.4 2014 4.9 5.9 5.0 7.1 5.0 4.0 6.0 6.8 5.0 5.7 Nominal GDP 2013 9.0 4.1 3.2 3.7 12.9 4.0 6.0 5.1 2014 10.9 2.2 5.0 4.4 5.4 1.0 5.9 5.5 Inflation 2013 2.0 3.5 3.1 4.2 3.0 3.6 3.9 3.7 2.7 3.5 3.5 2014 2.5 4.0 5.0 4.0 4.9 4.3 4.1 3.0 4.0 4.0
According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014 released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) Qatar has moved up to 13th place in the overall rankings of 148 economies. Qatar tops the rankings in the Middle East and North Africa region. The above table reaffirms Qatars position as the regional leader. Other factors that provided a good basis for heightening efficiency in the country include low levels of corruption, high efficiency of government institutions and strong security. MDP&S says that Qatars economy, with the highest per capita income in the world, is estimated to grow 6 percent during 2013 higher than the earlier 5.3 percent due to phenomenal increase in gas production
Moreover, Qatar is investing its assets across the globe as it seeks to reduce its energy dependency. In this connection, the $US100bn-plus Qatar Holding, the foreign investment arm of the Qatar Investment Authority, has been the most active of the regions sovereign wealth funds in recent years. It has stakes in companies including Barclays, Volkswagen, Porsche, Xstrata and Credit Suisse, which earned a 17 percent return on its investments in 2012. Moreover, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Morgan Stanley Capital International have also already upgraded its Emerging Market status. Doha Bank (December, 2013)
the moratorium on further exploration of the North Field. On the other hand, financial, real estate, and business services was the fastestgrowing sector 15.4 percent year-on-year, as banking intermediation accelerated and real estate services were boosted by the growing population. Construction activity accelerated 11.4 percent year-on-year as Qatars infrastructure development program is gathering momentum. In addition, manufacturing grew by 6.4 percent boosted by production from the new Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities. Acceleration in economic activity in the second half of 2013 is expected to be driven by the implementation of additional large infrastructure projects like the Doha Metro Rail project. The key driver of growth will therefore continue to be the non-hydrocarbon sector at least until 2015, when the Barzan gas project is expected to start production. The Qatar nationals have the highest average GDP per person in the world (more than $80,000 at last count). The fact points at just the tip of the iceberg as for Qatars growing economy and financial stability.
Economic Forecasts Bank of America Merrill Lynch (May 2013) Business Monitor International (Feb 2013) Economist Intelligence Unit (May 2013) Fitch Ratings (May 2013) IMF (Jan 2013) JP Morgan Securities plc (May 2013) Oxford Economics (Apr 2013) Qatar National Bank (Mar 2013) Roubini Global Economics (Mar 2013) Consensus (Mean) Median
Qatar finance ministry and Central Bank indicate that Qatars economy continued to maintain its strong growth momentum in Q2 of 2013. Its real GDP expanded at a robust 6 percent (year-on-year), spurred by double-
Qatars National Vision 2030
Fiscal Surplus (% of nominal GDP) Current account surplus (% of nominal GDP)
High Low
8.3 4.2
7.6 4.0
12.9 2.9
13.7 -1.0
4.7 4.7
5.5 5.5
Source: Qatar Central Bank (2013)
Source: Qatar Central Bank (2013)
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Volume-III, Issue-II FEBRUARY 2014

Peace Talks with Taliban: a non-starter

The economic fatality

Spectrum auction can trigger Pakistans Pages 18-19 economy

Ending Taliban infestation

Analysis of Taliban Jurisprudence

The US-Iran nuclear negotiations

Livestock recognition through (PARIS)

Distractions of the Wireless World

Peace Talks with Taliban: a non-starter

The economic fatality

The bilateral security agreement

Analysis of Taliban jurisprudence

Hafiz Muhammad Irfan

Sabria Chowdhury Balland

Spectrum auction can trigger Pakistans economy

The Kashmir issue from the American perspective

Why is the world going so crazy for new generation spectrum?

Do you have any reservations on procedure of 3G auction??

What would be the economic benefits of 3G?

Iqbal Ashraf new NBP chief

Offloading of HBLs shares

SECP approves futures trading in KSE-30 index

SBP revises Prudential Regulations for agri financing

Audit into Rs480 billion payment to IPPs sought

Credit line to private sector swells to Rs230 billion

Dar appoints Wathra SBP acting governor

Pakistan seeks $1.5 billion under IDA-16

Sugar export to fetch $550m

Banks achieve 44pc agri target

India raises interest rates to combat inflation

registration & identification

From identification to traceability

Neglected infrastructure; depriving societies

National Highways 50,727 Authority (NHA) ERRA 360,000

SCIENCE & TECH

are the not-too-distant future of

Step back to reality

Life under robot control

Its not all bad

Partnership for health

The Sindh Context

Pak-India trade, good for both countries

The author can be reached at lubazad@hotmail.com

The untold story of the people of Azad Kashmir

Financial irregularities snags EOBI affairs

Saudi concern about Afghanistan

including Syria and Afghanistan.

Special privileges to Saudis

Need for a new strategic relationship

Saudis stand with the will of Syrian People

Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

Resumption of saudi-pak economic commission

Pakistans expected privatization drive & exploration of shale gas

Revival of joint economic commission & joint business council

Pak-Saudi Arabias bilateral trade

Saudi arabias investments in Gwadar

Russia to faster cooperation with Pakistan

Alman Haider Naqvi

Shaping organizations with accurate intelligence

to introduce flood tolerant

Unparalleled socio-conomic prosperity

revenues but growth will moderate to 4.6 percent in 2014.