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Using Math to Counter

engineering
+
technology

A mathematical model tests the durability of


terrorist cell structures by Quaneisha Jenkins
Terrorism
A
t a time when the threat to national security network. Farley claims that noting the significance of hierarchy
remains elevated, some turn to mathematical within a network is crucial to increasing the probability of
models for strategy-based decision making deactivating the entire terrorist cell.
to counter terrorism. Using math to enhance
national security has historical precedent in RAND, a global Terrorist Lattices
policy think tank formed after WWII, and since then, has Farley drew upon his expertise in lattice theory to construct
been used to locate landmines and ensure information a more accurate model of terrorist networks. Lattice theory
security. Professor Jonathan Farley at Department of uses partially ordered sets of terrorists to demonstrate
Mathematics and Computer Science at the University of the relationships such as hierarchy between nodes. The sets are
West Indies, Jamaica, developed a mathematical model to partially ordered because some of the members have the same
test the durability of terrorist cell structures while he worked rank, e.g., terrorist cells have several foot soldiers. Severing
as a fellow at Stanford’s Center for International Security any few nodes by capturing or killing terrorists would not
and Cooperation (CISAC). disable the network, unless the specific nodes severed were
in a special relationship within the cell.
The Power of Math The link between a topmost node and a bottommost node,
While at Stanford from 2005 to 2006, Farley researched the denoting high and low ranking individuals, respectively, is
application of mathematics to problems in homeland security, termed a maximal chain. Only when enough of these links
such as terrorist cell formation, strategies for disrupting these are cut, such as by preventing communication between
cells and analysis of their activities. In particular, Farley tried
to improve upon a commonly used model of terrorist cells after
attending a presentation titled “Modeling the Al Qaeda” by Dr. “We’re creating tools that
Gordon Woo, a catastrophe consultant for Risk Management
Solutions Inc. Woo used graph theory to analyze terrorist enable decision makers to
networks: nodes represent members of terrorist cells and a
connecting line between two nodes denotes a relationship. make more logical decisions
This graph model used “The Connectedness Criterion”: if
a few nodes are severed, then the likelihood of a cell being rather than relying on intuition
deactivated increases. However, according to Farley, this
criterion doesn’t address issues such as the “impact of rank—
the difference between leaders and foot soldiers” within a
or guess work.” - Farley

Alice
How Nodes Represent
Carl
Relationships Between
Members in a Cell: >>> In this demonstration,
Bob is the subordinate to
Alice and Carl.

Bob
Bob
Alice Bob Carl <<< In this demonstration,
Bob is the boss to Alice and
Carl.

Bob is the central node; he has communication with


both Alice and Carl, but Alice and Carl never have
communication with each other.

Alice Carl

46 stanford scientific
engineering
+

The Fundamental Formula: Pr (G,k) = Cut (G,k) / nCk technology

where Pr = probability, G = terrorist cell, k = captured members, and n = total number of members

What does it mean? A < maximal node


The formula is used to ascertain the probability that a maximal chain
terrorist cell has been deactivated. Pr (G,k) represents the = ABEI
probability that G will be disrupted once k members have B C
been captured, and is equal to the number of cut sets of k
members in G divided by the number of ways k can be chosen
from n members.
D E F
How is it applied?
Example: Suppose there are n=15 terrorists in a cell working
in Orlando, Florida; what is the probability that the cell is
disconnected once k=4 members are captured?

Using the lattice theory and Pr (G,k) = Cut (G,k) / nCk, we G H I J


get: ^ minimal
node
Cut(G,k) = Cut (G, 4) = N choose k-1 = 15 choose 3; ^ A binary tree showing maximal chains and cut sets
(15 choose 3)/(15 choose 4) = 455/1365, or about a
33% chance of deactivation. e.g: cut set of 1 node = A, cut set of 2 nodes = CB, cut set of 3 nodes = CED

leaders and footsoldiers, do nodes become isolated and the On the Spotlight
cell more likely to be deactivated. The collections of nodes Farley graduated summa
that intersect every maximal chain are cut sets. Lattice cum laude from Harvard
University in 1991,
theory can be used to calculate the probability that a cell has
later receiving the 2004
been destroyed by mapping out cut sets. Harvard Foundation’s
By using Farley’s research on terrorist lattices, law Distinguished Scientist
enforcement would be better able to allocate resources for of the Year Award, and
counterterrorism strategies. Instead of spending enormous graduated with a doctorate
amounts of manpower trying to capture as many terrorists as from Oxford University in
possible, law enforcement could use a mathematical strategy 1995, where a year earlier
of capturing as many as leaders as possible in order to break he had received its highest
the chains of command. mathematics award. From
2001-2002, he was one of
Photo Credit: Dr. Jonathan Farley
only four American Fulbright
Safe Guessing Distinguished Scholars to Farley is professor in the Department of
As with all mathematical models, there are expected the United Kingdom. His
Mathematics and Computer Science at
shortcomings. Are terrorist cells hierarchical? What the University of the West Indies, Jamaica,
accomplishments in the and former fellow of Stanford’s Center for
about lone actors? This model, according to Farley, does field of lattice theory include International Security and Cooperation
not “accurately describe reality; this is merely better than solving several problems
guessing.” It is meant to help those in positions of power that have remained unsolved for many decades, including a problem in
make better informed decisions about counter-strategies. transversal theory. He is the co-founder of Hollywood Math and Science
It is not a net with which to catch terrorists. The NAACP’s Consulting and has written and been featured in several major American
and British publications such as Time Magazine, The New York Times, The
Crisis Magazine quotes Farley as saying, “We’re creating
Guardian, Crisis Magazine, and Jet. The City of Cambridge, Massachusetts
tools that enable decision makers to make more logical has officially declared March 19, 2004 to be “Dr. Jonathan David Farley
decisions rather than relying on intuition or guess work.” Day”.
The less reliance on guessing, the more lives and money can
be saved. S To Learn More
Visit the Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism conference
QUANEISHA JENKINS is a fifth year senior majoring in Science, Technology, website: http://www.cmmc2006.org
and Society, focus in Management Science and Engineering, double
minors in Afro-American Studies and Classics. She works for the Read Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Breaking Al Qaeda Cells: A
Women’s Community Center and the Stanford Center for Professional Mathematical Analysis of Counterterrorism Operations (A Guide for
Development. Risk Assessment and Decision Making) by Jonathan David Farley

layout design: Anita Verma volume v 47

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