Drought, A Global Perspective: Efforting Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System

Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln

INSPIRE , Krakow, Poland, June 23-25, 2010

Outline
The NDMC
NDMC Program Areas Collaborations: International

Drought Monitoring and Early Warning (DEWS)

USDM Inputs NADM Seasonal Drought Outlook (forecast) Impacts

New Wave of Tools

Remote Sensing Models/Land Data Simulations (LDAS)

NIDIS Need for a Global Drought Preparedness Network Summary

National Drought Mitigation Center

Founded: 1995 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Mission: To lessen societal vulnerability to drought by promoting planning and the adoption of appropriate risk management techniques.

NDMC Program Objectives

Improve the science of drought monitoring, planning, and mitigation Build awareness of drought and its impacts on society and the environment, and how human actions affect our vulnerability to drought Focus the attention of policy makers on the importance of drought policy and planning in the wise stewardship of natural resources RESEARCH, OUTREACH, AND TRAINING

NDMCOrganizationalOverview
(MikeHayes)

Staffbackgrounds: Climatology Meteorology Hydrology WaterResources

Staffbackgrounds: Planning Economics PublicParticipation RuralSociology Anthropology Journalism

Staffbackgrounds: GIS RemoteSensing Geography Ecology

23diversefaculty&staff 4graduatestudents 3visitinginternationalscientists

NDMCs Monitoring Program Area

 UN organizations: FAO, ISDR, and CCD World Meteorological Organization (WMO) US AID Various regional and national drought centers Numerous government agencies and universities in different countries

SPI
Global applications (established) Flexible to a variety of needs

Provided to over 65 countries 150 + scientists Over 50+ visiting scientists

SPI Applications

Forecasted Probability for SPI < -1.5

Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices

The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS)

Allows for early drought detection Improves response (proactive) Data and tools for decision support Triggers actions within a drought plan A critical mitigation action Foundation of a drought plan

Components of a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

Monitoring AND Forecasting Access to timely data Synthesis/analysis of data used to trigger set actions within a drought plan Tools for decision makers Efficient dissemination/communication (WWW, media, extension, etc.) Drought risk planning Education and Awareness

..the rapid onset of National Drought Centers/Strategies

JRC-EDO Australia Canada United States DMCSEE/Slovenia Spain South Africa Portugal South Korea China India Pakistan Morocco Syria Brazil (Sao Paulo state) Jordan Iran

Drought Monitoring State of the Science: Where are we now?

WCC-3,GDPN/GEOSS is a way to learn/leverage from one another Canada/Mexico/United States UN/WMO/others Many regions/countries are working together to better monitor drought Monitoring of impacts globally is virtually nonexistent Early warning/monitoring just one key: THEN WHAT? Need linkages to risk/vulnerability assessment and planning for adaptation Many indicators/indices dont reflect reality in various regions, or for various season(s)or for both!

Drought Monitoring State of the Science: Where are we now?

Heightened awareness as a result of IPCC AR4 An explosion of good work/tools/products out there over the past 5 years Impediments remain
Lack of coordination Lack of trigger ties to any drought plans Resources Lack of data/long-term data Lack of impact data/collection Lack of institutional cooperation Lack of drought mitigation plans

Billion Dollar Disasters

NCDC, 1980-2008

Disaster Events Hurricanes 27 Tornadoes 16 Droughts 14 Floods 13 Fires 9 Winter-related 11 Total 90

Damage$ 367 34 180 70 21 39 711

Approaches to Drought Assessment

Single index or indicator (parameter) Multiple indices or indicators Composite Indicator

The U.S. Drought Monitor

Since 1999, NOAA (CPC, NCDC, WRCC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies

Western Region Climate Center on board 2008

CalDry listserver hosted by CA DWR

10 authors in all Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCCs, SCs, federal/state agencies, etc.) (~260 experts)

The Drought Monitor Concept

A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map Convergence of evidence approach Trying to capture these characteristics:
the droughts magnitude (duration + intensity) spatial extent probability of occurrence Impacts

Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks

U.S. Drought Monitor Map

Drought Intensity Categories
D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought Exceptional (2%tile)

Integrates Key Drought Indicators:

U.S. Drought Monitor

- Palmer Drought Index - SPI - KBDI - Modeled Soil Moisture - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow - Precipitation Anomalies Growing Season: - Crop Moisture Index - Sat. Veg. Health Index - Soil Moisture - Mesonet data In The West: - SWSI - Reservoir levels - Snowpack (SNOTEL) - SWE - Streamflow Created in ArcGIS

The Drought Monitor is Widely Used

Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NWS DGT/State drought plan triggers ~3.5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/year Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/Internet /radio/ Nightly Network News/CNN/NPR/etc. Presidential/Congressional/Governor briefings NIDIS portal/portlet A model of interagency collaboration

History of the North American Drought Monitor (NADM)

The concept for the NADM was developed and discussed in 2002 The first NADM map was released in March 2003 The first NADM map in all three languages (English, Spanish, and French)was released in October 2003

 Canada

North American Drought Monitor Partners

Agriculture and Agrifood Canada Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada

Mexico
National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN-Servicio Meteorologico Nacional) CONAGUA (Comision Nacional del Agua)

United States
National Drought Mitigation Center National Climatic Data Center Climate Prediction Center United States Department of Agriculture

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Issued every two weeks CPC monthly precipitation outlook CPC long-lead seasonal 90-day forecasts Various medium- and short-range forecasts and models such as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts Soil moisture tools based on the GFS model and the Constructed Analogue on Soil (CAS) moisture, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal precipitation forecasts, climatology, and initial conditions.

What weve learned: Defining Impacts

Hydrological
Water Supply Snow Depth Recreation Tourism Hydropower

Agricultural Meteorological
Rainfall deficiencies Soils Crops Range Livestock Forests

Socio-economic & Political

Human Impact

Time/Duration of the event

The Drought Impact Reporter v2

http://droughtreporter.unl.edu

Sponsor: USDA-Risk Management Agency and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services Program (TRACS)

Why Track Drought Impacts?

Establish an impacts baseline for monitoring
Climate change

To know where to direct relief To reduce vulnerability in advance of the next drought Ground truth indices No single method exists for collecting and/or quantifying drought losses Very little in the way of environmental or qualitative collection

Some DIR Factoids

Established in 2005 DIR DB now contains ~12,000 impacts 1,891 impacts added in 2009

Promoting the drought impact reporting idea to their volunteers

* 14,000+ volunteers covering all 50 states!! * CoCoRaHS Message of the Day * Monthly e-mail reminders * Guide to reporting drought impacts * Banners on the Web

Courtesy: Henry Reges, Colorado State University

InitialRemoteSensingEffortstoSupporttheUSDM
1.VegetationDroughtResponseIndex(VegDRI) integratessatellite
basedvegetationindex(VI)observations,climatebaseddroughtindexdata, andgeneralenvironmentalinformation(e.g.,LULCtype,soils,andelevation).
o NDMCandUSGSCenterfor EROSareworkingtodevelopa MODISbasedVegDRItoreplace thecurrentAVHRRVIbased operationalVegDRIproducts.
National Drought Monitoring System for Drought Early Warning Using Hydrologic and Ecologic Observations from NASA Satellite Data Investigators:S.V.Nghiem(JPL,PI),J.P.Verdin(USGS, LeadCoI),D.A.Wilhite(NDMC),R.Dole(NOAAPSD), D.LeComte(NOAACPC),G.R.Brakenridge(Darmouth DFO),E.G.Njoku(JPL)

http://drought.unl.edu/vegdri/VegDRI_Main.htm
Brown, J.F., B.D. Wardlow, T. Tadesse, M.J. Hayes, and B.C. Reed, 2008. The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI): a new integrated approach for monitoring drought stress in vegetation. GIScience and Remote Sensing, 45(1):16-46.

Project supported by: NNH07ZDA001N: NASA Decision Support through Earth Science Research Results

Remote Sensing of the Water Cycle

Radiation Soil Vegetation Snow, Snow Snow, Ice, Rainfall Moisture

Aqua: MODIS, AMSR-E, etc.

Traditional radiation-based remote sensing technologies cannot sense water below the first few centimeters of the snowcanopy-soil column

GRACE
GRACE is unique in its ability to monitor water at all levels, down to the deepest aquifer
Matt Rodell
NASA GSFC

InitialRemoteSensingEffortstoSupporttheUSDM
4. EvaporativeStressIndex(ESI) depictsmoisture stressfromboth thesoilandvegetationcanopybasedonETfluxestimatesfroma landsurfacemodel(ALEXI&DisALEXI)thatreliesprimarilyon remotelysensedthermalobservations.
Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)
A GOES Thermal-based Drought Early Warning Index for NIDIS Investigators:M.C.Anderson(USDAARS),K.C.Mo (NCEPCPC),M.Svoboda(NDMC),B.Wardlow(NDMC), X.Zhan(NESDIS),J.R.Mecikalksi(UofAlabama),W.P. Kustas(USDAARS),andJ.F.Brown(USGSEROS)
Project supported by: OAR-CPO-2009-2001430: NOAA Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP_ Competition Drought Forecast Products and Applications

ESI Drier Wetter

Courtesy: M. Anderson USDA ARS (2008)

SEASONAL ANOMALIES (9-year record) April September 2008

Anderson, M.C., Norman, J.M., Mecikalski, J.R., Otkin, J.A., Kustas, W.P. 2007. A climatological study of evapotranspiration and moisture stress across the continental U.S. based on thermal remote sensing. II. Surface moisture climatology. Journal of Geophysical Research. 112, D11112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007507.

What is the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)?

The Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) consists of uncoupled models forced with observations, satellite data and radar precipitation measurements, and is therefore not affected by Numerical WP forcing biases. Near real-time using existing Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Schemes (SVATS) by NCEP, NASA, Princeton University, and the University of Washington at 1/8 degree (about 14 kilometer) resolution across North America and at 1/4 degree resolution globally. Outputs: soil moisture, snow water equivalent, total runoff, streamflow, evaporation and precipitation. The SM anomalies and percentiles are based on a 28 year climatology (1980 - 2007)

USDMConceptExpandedtoNorthAmerica
The monthly North American Drought Monitor (NADM) was introduced in 2003 and built upon the USDM concept. Challenges:
1.Limited number of data inputs compared to the USDM 2.Data inconsistencies (e.g., specific measure, format, and quality) among countries 3.Currently, limited use of remote sensing-derived inputs (primarily NDVI).

NationalIntegratedDrought InformationSystem(NIDIS)
A NOAA-led Federal, State, Tribal and Local Partnership
(Public Law 109-430, 2006)

Goal of NIDIS: Improve the nations capacity to proactively manage droughtrelated risks by providing decision makers with the best available information and tools to assess the impact of drought and to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.
www.drought.gov

NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date):

Other Partners: Western Governors Association (WGA) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Regional Climate Centers American Association of State Climatologists Indigenous Waters Network Weather Channel Numerous Universities including: University of Oklahoma, University of South Carolina, University of Washington, South Dakota State University, and Cornell University.

www.drought.gov

Courtesy: NIDIS

Moving Forward: Scales Immediate future development in the USDP will be aimed at:
Spinning up regional pilot activities and regional depiction of drought
What tools are currently in place that we can leverage in the SE US and the upper Colorado Basin for purposes of mitigation of impacts and adaptation? Are tools applicable to local/regional level or are they transferable nationwide? Who are the key local/regional players? What else have we missed?

Working with GEO to begin addressing global and international drought monitoring and forecasting

NIDIS Pilots
A Geographic Framework for Developing Drought Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Local-Scale Decision Making

+
Integrated Climate, Ecosystems, Hydrology, & Remote Sensing Info & Data

=
Watershed, state, tribal, local: Experience & Knowledge
Decision Support

NIDIS Pilot Areas

Issue-based EWS tailored to the critical decisions and issue facing each basin Each EWS will be unique with specific inputs and methods developed and implemented by local experts Partnerships between: 1) federal, state, and local agencies, 2) tribal groups, 3) other types of NGOs; and 4) private sector

Moving Forward: Call for Content

The USDP is looking for partners to contribute the following four types of information (in priority order): Web Mapping Services (WMS) that meet the standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) 1.0 or higher. Drought-related maps and web sites that are regularly updated and can be rendered in a USDP portlet. Drought-related maps and web sites that are regularly updated and can be made available only as a stand-alone page. Non-regularly issued reports related to drought, of a non-time sensitive nature.

WCC3 Executive Summary concluded:

that present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of meeting present, and future needs and benefits, particularly in developing countries; that the most urgent need is for much closer partnerships between the providers and users of climate services; that great scientific progress has been made especially by the World Climate Programme and its associated activities over the past 30 years, which provides already a firm basis for the delivery of a wide range of climate services; and that major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the time-range and skill of climate prediction through new research and modelling initiatives; and to improve the observational basis for climate prediction and services, and the availability and quality control of climate data;

 called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services: The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data; The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives. Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sectororiented information to support adaptation activities; Climate user interface mechanisms focused on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services; and Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and strengthened outreach and communication. supported the development of the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services.

What is GEOSS?: The Global Earth Observation System of Systems

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems will provide decision-support tools to a wide variety of users. As with the Internet, GEOSS will be a global and flexible network of content providers allowing decision makers to access an extraordinary range of information at their desk.

Global Drought Preparedness Network

Individually, many nations will be unable to improve their drought coping capacity. Collectively, through global, regional, and national partnerships, we can share information and experiences to reduce the impacts of drought.

Potential Regional Networks

Southeastern and Central European Network North American Network Mediterranean Network Caribbean Network Asian Network West Asia Network

South American Network

Sub-Saharan African Network

Future Drought Monitoring Challenges

The Big Five: Impact collection/quantification Soil moisture (especially in situ) Hydrology (surface and groundwater) Application of remotely sensed/modeled products operationally (trust) (operational) Ecological/Environmental (D-x E?)
If a drought occurs in the desert, does anybody see it?

Summary
Drought is not just a physical event Vulnerability matters Impacts (establish a baseline) Global DEWS: Heighten Awareness and act as a Focusing Tool for Policy Makers
Planning, policy, mitigation, adaptation

Promote and Encourage Citizen Science

MIND THE IMPACTS

Thank You
Please contact me at:

Any Questions?

Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center 402-472-8238 msvoboda2@unl.edu Please visit the NDMC website for more information: http://www.drought.unl.edu