PROBABILITY The word probability or chance is commonly used in our day to day conversation.

For example, we make statements like Possibly it will rain tomorrow, it is likely that he may get the job", "It is likely that Mr. X may not come for taking his class todayetc. ,The word Possibly, likely etc., convey the same sense,i.e., the event is not certain to take place or, in other words, there is uncertainty about happening of the event in question. For example, when we toss a coin, we can enumerate all the possible outcomes. The possible outcomes are either the coin will fall head or tail. One of them will happen. But we cannot say which one it will be. In these kinds of problems we can only make predictions. While making predictions about the occurrence of the uncertain events, we work out the amount of likelihood of the occurrence of these events. That is probability. The theory of probability has its origin in the games of chance related to gambling such as throwing a die, tossing a coin, drawing cards from a pack of cards etc. Starting with games of chance, probability today has become one of the tools of statistics. Probability theory is being applied in the solution of social, economic, political and business problems. Basic Terminology Random Experiments: An Experiment that has two or more outcomes which vary in an unpredictable manner from trial to trial when conducted under uniform conditions, is called a random experiments. In a random experiment all the possible outcomes are known in advance but none of the outcomes can be predicted with certainty. The tossing of a coin, for example, is a random experiment since it has two specified outcomes-Head and Tail. But we are uncertain under whether head will turn or tail when the coin is tossed. Throwing a die is another example of a random experiment. When we throw a die, the possible results are {1,2,3,4,5,6}. It is not possible to predict which of these will occur. Features of Random Experiments are; It has more than one outcome, The outcomes are unpredictable, The experiments is repeatable. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompatible when both cannot happen simultaneously in a single trail. For example , in tossing a coin, the events head and tail are mutually exclusive, since if the outcome is head, the possibility of getting tail in the same trial is ruled out. Exhaustive Events: The total number of all possible outcomes in any trial is known as Exhaustive Events or Exhaustive Cases. For example, In tossing a coin, there are two exhaustive cases, head and tail. Equally Likely Events:- Events are said to equally likely if there is no reason to expect any one in preference to any other. For example, In throwing a die, all the six faces are equally likely to come. Favorable Events or Cases:- The cases which entail the happing of an event are said to be favorable to the event. It is total number of possible outcomes in which the specified events happens. For example, In a throw of two dice, the number of cases favorable to getting a sum 6 is 5 , (1,5),(5,1),(3,3),(4,2),(2,4). Sample point:- Every indecomposable outcome of a random experiments is called a sample point of that random experiments. For example, when a coin is tossed, getting head is a sample point and when two dice are thrown getting(2,3) is a sample point. Sample Space:- The sample space of a random experiment is the set containing all the sample points of that random experiments. For example, When a coin is tossed the sample space is {Head, Tail} When two coins are tossed sample space is {HeadHead,HeadTail,TailHead,TailTail}

Event:- An event is the subset of a sample space of a random experiment. For example, When two coins are tossed getting two heads is an event Sure Events( Certain Events):- An event whose occurrence is inevitable is called certain events. For example, Getting a white ball from the bag containing all white balls is a sure events. Impossible Event (Empty Set):- If an event cannot occur, when the random experiments is conducted, then that event is an impossible event. For example, Getting a white ball from a bag containing all black is an impossible event. Uncertain Events:- An event is said to be uncertain if its happening is neither sure or impossible. That is, the happening of an uncertain event cannot be predicted. For example, getting a white ball from a bag containing white and black balls is uncertain. Independent Events:- Two or more events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one of them in no way affects the occurrence of the other or the others. For example, In tossing of a twice, the result of the second tossing is not affected by the result of the first toss. Dependent Events:- Two or more events are said to be dependent if the happening of one of them affects the happening of the other. In the case of dependent events the chance of one event depends on the happening of the other event. For example, From a pack of 52 cards if one card is drawn then 51 cards are left. If another card is drawn without replacing the first, the chance of the second drawn is affected by the first draw. Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive Events:- A number of events are said to mutually exclusive & exhaustive events if (i) every two of them are mutually exclusive & (ii) one of them necessarily occurs in any trial. For example, In experiment of drawing a card from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards, the following events are Mutually exclusive and exhaustive. The card is a spade, The card is a club, The card is a diamond, The card is a heart. Probability Definition The probability of a given event is the numerical value given to the likelihood of the occurrence of that event. It is a number lying between 0 and 1. 0 is for an event which cannot occur and 1 for an event certain to occur. When the occurrence of an event is uncertain, probability is a number between 0 and 1. Different definitions of Probability or Different Schools of thought 1. Classical Probability 2. Empirical Probability 3. Subjective Probability 4. Modern Probability 1. Classical or Mathematical or a priori Probability Probability, is the ratio of the number of favorable cases to the total number of equally likely cases. If probability of occurrence of A is denoted by P(A) p or P(A) = Favourable number of cases Exhaustive number of cases =m n

Classical probability is often called a priori probability because if one keeps using orderly examples of unbiased dice, coin etc. one can state the answer in advance ( a priori ) without rolling a dice, tossing a coin etc.

2. Empirical Probability (Relative Frequency Theory or Statistical Probability or a posteriori Probability) If we repeat a random experiment a great number of times under essentially the same conditions, the limit of the ratio of the number of times that an event happens to the total number of trials as the number of trials increases indefinitely is called the probability of the happening of the event. p = P(A) = Lt f / n n where n is the number of repetitions of the experiments and f is the number of times A happens. 3. Subjective Probability Subjective probability is defined as the probability assigned to an event by an individuals based on whatever evidence is available. Hence such probabilities are based the beliefs of the person making the probability statements. For example, if a teacher wants to find out the probability of Mr. X topping in M.Com. Examination in Delhi University this year, he may assign a value between 0 and 1 according to his degree or belief for possible occurrence. He may take into account such factors as the past academic performance, the views of his other colleagues, the attendance record, performance in periodic tests, etc., and arrive at probability figure. 4. Modern Probability or Axiomatic approach to Probability The axiomatic approach to probability was introduced by the Russian mathematician A.N Kolmogorov in the year 1933. When this approach is followed, no precise definition of probability is given, rather we give certain axioms or postulates on which probability calculations are based. The whole field of probability theory for finite sample spaces is based upon the following three axioms: 1. The probability of event ranges from 0 to 1. If the event cannot take place its probability shall be 0 and if it is certain, i.e., bound to occur, its probability shall be 1. 2. The probability of the entire sample space is 1. i.e., P(S) = 1. 3. If A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint events then the probability of occurrence of either A or B denoted by P(AUB) shall be given by: P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) Algebra of events(Set Theory Notations) If A and B are two events Ac => not A AUB => at least one of A or B AB => both A and B c AB => only A exactly A Ac [ Complement of event A or Event not A ] The event A and the event A does not occur are called complementary events. If A is an event then not A is the complement of A. A and Ac belong to the same random experiment. Ac = U A.