The P ersonal C loud W ill B e a $12 B illion Industry in 2016

Personal computing has become complicated. Consumers and IT managers face dozens of services for a single functionality and users are increasingly using smartphones, tablets, and different PCs for home and work. It is hard to juggle it all. "The personal computing experience is a victim of its own success" research company Forrester says in a report outlining a strategy for consumers and corporations in approaching the "personal cloud." Forrester predicts that the personal cloud will be a $12 billion dollar market by 2016. What is the personal cloud going to look like and who are the leaders going to be? W hat W ill the P ersonal C loud B e B uilt On? Forrester predicts that the personal cloud will be built around the large personal email systems that have extra layers of compatibility - iCloud, Gmail with Google Apps and Hotmail with Windows Live Essentials. According to Forrester, these will meet the basic needs of most individuals and will be complimented by third-party applications. The biggest of the core cloud providers will be able to build application programming interfaces (APIs) that will allow other properties - like Flickr or Dropbox - to work within them. Across the device landscape, the PC will still be central hub of computing and devices will align themselves with one of the major clouds.

Forrester says that by 2016, 196 million U.S. consumers will be using a personal cloud service ("P Cloud"), of which 97 million will pay for the service, either via subscription or one-time purchase. They will revolve around Microsoft, Google and Apple. W here is A m azon? In the cloud landscape of 2011, that might seem like a bit of a surprise. When it comes to cloud services, Amazon is one of the leaders in the industry. Yet, Forrester does not mention Amazon Web Services in the report. When you look at the vision of the personal cloud, the omission makes sense. The "P Cloud" will be built around existing communications structures on along major operating systems. Amazon does not have an operating system for PCs or mobile devices. It is rumoured to be building devices on Android that will be released later this year, so in the Forrester formula, Amazon will be functioning within the Google vertical of the personal cloud

(though, Amazon will probably continue to be a robust player in commercial cloud and Web services).

"P C loud" A s The Third M ajor C lient Softw are Forrester says that the cloud will be the third major client software battleground. The PC operating system was the first, won early by Microsoft with niches carved out for Apple and Linux. Mobile is the second and remains fluid and volatile with Google's Android leading in market share with Apple, Research in Motion and Microsoft figuring out how to gain ground. The personal cloud will be the third and will be built on top of the first two. Hence, the companies with strong infrastructure in operating systems and communications will be the leaders in the personal cloud as well. Forrester sees the personal cloud as a disruptive force to the current online services market. It says to "prepare for major opportunity and turbulence selling to individuals." That means marketers should explore the personal cloud as a new channel to reach customers. IT managers should plan for personal cloud integration as consumers continue to want information stored in personal services at work and

the major email providers should create a better experience to capture users from any email address in the company's personal cloud net.

Is The P rivate C loud R eally B igger Than The P ublic C loud?

The private cloud appears to be booming, according to new Forrester data, but this may simply reflect an increase in cloud confusion. As Amazon continues to dominate public cloud computing, perhaps the bigger news is that private cloud adoption outpaces public cloud adoption by a considerable margin, according to new Forrester data. If you dig deep into the data, however, the prevalence of private cloud solutions appears to do more with enterprises repurposing virtualization as "cloud," rather than any real shift to truly cloud-like deployments. So is enterprise cloud simply one big exercise in cloudwashing? The answer is definitely maybe. The B oom Of The P rivate Cloud Given the hoopla around public cloud, it's somewhat surprising to see Forrester survey data reporting significantly higher deployments of private cloud solutions:

While 30% actually reflects a decrease in private cloud adoption previous Forrester surveys revealed that 33% of respondents had embraced private cloud computing in 2012it's balanced by the 55% of IT decision-makers from North American companies with 1,000 or more employees surveyed, who say they are prioritizing private clouds in 2014; in 2012, only 46% of respondents said they made the private cloud a priority. Of course, this may be a question of definitions more than actual adoption.

From what I've heard, VMware's vCloud Director has fewer than 100 deployments worldwide. CloudStack has about 200, and OpenStack is in that same ballpark. So if these three private cloud leaders notch those kinds of numbers, there's no way we're anywhere near 30% adoption of true private cloud deployments. As Forrester analyst Lauren Nelson notes in the report, much of private cloud adoption doesn't really involve the cloud at all: For years, enterprises have been labeling enhanced virtualization environments as private cloud. In 2013, Forrester saw an increase in the number of private clouds meeting each core requirement. What may appear to be decreased adoption is actually decreased cloudwashing across many of the core characteristics and an increasing maturity in the North American market. This is a step forward, but cloudwashing will continue for quite some time, with 92% of private clouds still falling short of the core requirements. VMware leads the "private cloud" pack, according to Forrester, with Microsoft and Cisco second and third, respectively. But, again, is this the cloud at all? C loudw ashing: H ere To Stay? It's understandable that private cloud vendors would try to dress up their old technology as new-fangled cloud. They want to protect their existing investments, and repurpose old technology for new workloads. One major problem with this approach, however, is that in so doing they largely ignore the true benefits of cloud computing, or those adopting it in drovesnamely, the developer. Gartner analyst Lydia Leong hits this nail on the head, arguing that "the vast majority of the dollars spent on cloud IaaS are much more heavily influenced by developer desires than by IT operations concerns." Perhaps more accurately stated, the vast majority of true cloud dollars are much more heavily influenced by developers than IT operations. IT operations want to keep using VMware. Developers want Amazon Web Services (AWS). Over time, of course, VMware may be able to parlay its entrenched position with IT operations into real cloud adoption, as Leong points out in a separate post. But for now, those that want the full benefits of cloud computing are looking beyond their firewall to AWS and other public cloud options. After all, according to Forrester, a

mere 8% of private clouds actually meet the definition of cloud computing, offering features like self-service and full automation. But while the prevalence of such features is on the rise, so is cloudwashing among the private cloud set. Meanwhile, Public Cloud Keeps Growing It's very possible that IT operations simply don't know a real cloud when it sees one. Redmonk analyst Stephen O'Grady suggests as much in response to the suggestion that private cloud is outpacing the public cloud. AWS cloud chief Andy Jassy last year declared that private cloud offers "none of the benefits of Amazon's public cloud, and that it's merely a "stopgap" measure introduced by "old-guard" IT companies to protect their businesses." Jassy went on to insist that "if youre not planning on using the public cloud in some significant fashion, you will be at a significant competitive disadvantage." IT might not like Jassy's message, but developers certainly do. Commenting on Forrester's survey data, James Urquhart, director of cloud management at Dell, suggests that "Many IT orgs still in denial" of just how potentand differentcloud computing can be. But their developers are not so much. It's fair to say that public cloud dominates among developers, given the agility it provides. In fact, separate Forrester survey data shows a clear shift to public cloud computing in that regard. Maybe it's time IT talked with developers and got on the same cloud.