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ESCUELA DE POSTGRADO
SECCION DE POST GRADO EN CIENCIAS
ECONOMICAS
DETERMINANTES DEL INDICE GENERAL DE LA
BOLSA DE VALORES DE LIMA EN EL PERIODO
ENERO 1994 OCTUBRE 2003
Mencin: Finanzas.
AUTOR
ASESOR
Trujillo - Per
2004
N de Registro: ................
DEDICATORIA
Gracias.
F. Hamilton Bravo C.
AGRADECIMIENTO
Al Dr. Cesar Liza Ortiz, Mg. Jorge Zegarra Pinto, Ms. Carlos Diaz Collantes, Econ.
Aldo Esquivel Quie, C.P.C. Julia Rojas, Abog. Carmen Villanueva Costa y a todo
el personal docente y administrativo de la escuela de Post Grado de esta
Universidad.
Gracias, a ustedes.
F. Hamilton Bravo C.
ii
INDICE
Pag.
Dedicatoria
Agradecimiento
ii
Indice
iii
Resumen
iv
Abstract
CAPITULO I: INTRUDUCCION
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
Introduccin
Realidad problemtica
Problema
Hiptesis
2
3
5
5
7
7
7
09
13
15
18
iii
Resumen
El presente trabajo va ms all de las dos escuelas comnmente utilizadas por los
responsables de las inversiones, este trabajo utiliza la teora econmica para
identificar las variables que determinan el ndice General de la Bolsa de Valores
de Lima (IGBVL), buscando un modelo que permita explicar la formacin del
ndice y su evolucin.
iv
ABSTRACT
With the present work I try to identify the Determinants of index so much to the
boarder of our economy as the determinants originating of external economies.
The theory of Efficient Markets, considers as fundamental point that does not exist
influence of the variations of the quotes passed in the variations of the future
quotes, on having thought that on an efficient stock market, the quotes of the
financial assets negotiated in it, they reflect at all time, all the available information;
therefore any strategy based on particular information will not obtain major
benefits and profitability similar to the obtained one was generating for a portfolio
average, approaching your Intrinsic value, it is worth saying that price obtained in
the appraisement according to the fundamental analysis.
According to this theory the quotes continue a random tour, not presenting a
behavior easily predictable. The Theory of Efficient Markets is opposed to the
Technical School.
The present work goes beyond two schools commonly used by the persons in
charged of the investments, this work uses the economic theory to identify the
variables that determine the General Index of the Lima Stock exchange. (IGBVL),
seeking a model who allows to explain the formation of the index and its evolution.
CAPITULO I
INTRODUCCION
I.1.- INTRODUCCIN
La constante evolucin de la Ciencias Econmicas y la interconexin de los
Mercados Financieros Mundiales, siguen permitiendo el incremento de la
movilidad de capitales entre las economas del mundo. Los capitales fluyen a
travs de los Mercados de valores, a los cuales se les consideran Termmetros
de las Economas"1.
I.2.-REALIDAD PROBLEMATICA
Nuestro Mercado de Valores, refleja tendencias sistemticas8, las cotizaciones
histricas contienen informacin relevante [nuestro mercado tiene memoria], por
lo que el Anlisis Tcnico tiene validez; para la Teora de Mercados Eficientes
estos argumentos confirman la ineficiencia de nuestro Mercado de Valores, dando
la posibilidad de detectar tendencias sistemticas mediante el tecnicismo.
7
8
9
El oro y la plata, son los metales refugio del dinero, en pocas de crisis
financiera, por tanto nos pueden dar, una seal adelantada de crisis toda vez que
sus precios inicien una tendencia continua alcista.
10
Con ellos intentaremos arribar a un modelo explicativo del IGBVL, para el periodo
comprendido en un horizonte de 118 meses, que va desde Enero de 1994 a
Octubre del 2003.
I.3.- PROBLEMA
Cules son los determinantes del ndice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima
(IGBVL), en el perodo Enero 1994 Octubre 2003?
I.4.- HIPTESIS
Consideramos, como determinantes significativos del IGBVL al: Dow Jones
Industrial Average Index, Oil Index Chicago Board Option, Gold and Silver Index
Filadelphya Stock Exchange, ndice del Producto Sector Construccin del Per
(BCRP), ndice del Tipo de Cambio Real (Soles / dlar)- BCRP.
CAPITULO II
MATERIAL Y METODO
II.1.- MATERIAL
19
Dlar)- BCRP.
II.2.- METODO
Descriptivo, Expofacto Retrospectivo.
II.3.- TECNICA
La tcnica que se usara ser la Observacin Directa20 y la revisin Documentaria.
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
8.
8.
8.
Mensuales.
Mensuales.
CUADRO A
Symbol
AA
AIG
AXP
BA
C
CAT
DD
DIS
GE
GM
HD
HON
HPQ
IBM
INTC
JNJ
JPM
KO
MCD
MMM
MO
MRK
MSFT
PFE
PG
SBC
UTX
VZ
WMT
XOM
20
CUADRO B
COMPONENTS FOR DJI
Name
ALCOA INC
AMER INTL GROUP
AMER EXPRESS CO
BOEING CO
CITIGROUP
CATERPILLAR INC
DU PONT CO
WALT DISNEY CO
GENERAL ELEC CO
GENERAL MOTORS
HOME DEPOT INC
HONEYWELL INTL
HEWLETT-PACKARD
INTL BUS MACHINE
INTEL CORP
JOHNSON&JOHNSON
JP MORGAN CHASE
COCA COLA CO
MCDONALDS CORP
3M COMPANY
ALTRIA GROUP
MERCK & CO
MICROSOFT CP
PFIZER INC
PROCTER & GAMBLE
SBC COMMS
UNITED TECH CP
VERIZON COMMS
WAL-MART STORES
EXXON MOBIL
AHC
BP
COP
CVX
KMG
MRO
OXY
RD
REP
SUN
TOT
UCL
XOM
Name
AMERADA HESS
BP PLC ADR
CONOCOPHILLIPS
CHEVRONTEXACO
KERR MCGEE CORP
MARATHON OIL
OCCIDENTAL PETE
ROYAL DUTCH PETE
REPSOL YPF
SUNOCO INC
TOTAL S.A.
UNOCAL CORP DEL
EXXON MOBIL
CUADRO C
COMPONENTS FOR XAU
Symbol
ABX
AEM
AU
DROOY
FCX
GFI
GG
HMY
KGC
MDG
NEM
PDG
Name
BARRICK GOLD
AGNICO EAGLE
ANGLOGLD ASHANTI
DURBAN DEEP
FRPRT-MCM GD
GOLD FIELDS LTD
GOLDCORP INC
HARMONY GOLD MNG
KINROSS GOLD
MERIDIAN GOLD
NEWMONT MINING
PLACER DOME INC
CAPITULO III
RESULTADOS Y DISCUSION
Luego estas variables logaritmizadas han sido filtradas con el Filtro Hodrick
Prescott23 para deducir la tendencia, y dejar slo los valores a nivel de
desviaciones, de tal forma que veamos la influencia de las variaciones de las
variables exgenas, en las variaciones de la variable endgena (IGBVL). Ver
Anexo (Tabla 01 y Tabla 02).
Dado que son variables financieras en el tiempo, es muy probable que se nos
presenten problemas de autocorrelacin, lo que eliminaremos con el uso de un
modelo ARMA24. Mediante el anlisis del correlograma de los residuos del modelo
normal, hemos podido observar que el modelo ARMA respectivo es de orden
(1,1).
T 1
T
min ( xt yt ) 2 + (( xt +1 xt ) ( xt xt 1 )) 2
{ xt }
t =2
t =1
24
10
Variable
Coefficient
DHLCONST(-2)
DHLDJI(-6)
DHLITCRM(-1)
DHLXAU(-2)
DHLXOI(-1)
AR(1)
MA(1)
-0.199908
-0.235852
1.651766
0.109140
0.264566
0.795644
0.054922
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.716214
0.699841
0.070341
0.514574
140.7518
1.980149
Std. Error
t-Statistic
0.108461
-1.843126
0.157445
-1.498001
0.536173
3.080661
0.070588
1.546154
0.146640
1.804183
0.077432
10.27534
0.123936
0.443148
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0682
0.1372
0.0026
0.1251
0.0741
0.0000
0.6586
0.002048
0.128390
-2.409943
-2.239072
43.74548
0.000000
0.80 =
-0.05 =
Invertid AR Roots
Invertid MA Roots
En resumen:
usadas
como
exgenas,
resultan
ser
muy
buenos
los
trminos
de
variaciones
respecto
la
tendencia
ARCH Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Variable
C
RESID^2(-1)
0.053350
0.054312
Coefficient
0.004574
0.022193
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.000494
-0.008761
0.008742
0.008254
366.2830
1.956401
Probability
Probability
Std. Error
0.000945
0.096083
0.817770
0.815724
t-Statistic
4.839994
0.230977
Prob.
0.0000
0.8178
0.004677
0.008704
-6.623327
-6.574227
0.053350
0.817770
11
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
95
96
97
98
99
Residual
00
01
Actual
02
03
Fitted
Correlogram of RESID
Date: 04/18/04 Time: 10:50
Sample: 1994:01 2003:10
Included observations: 117
Autocorrelation
.|.
.|*
.|.
.|.
*|.
.|.
.|*
*|.
.|.
.|.
.|.
.|.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Partial
Correlation
.|.
|
.|*
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
.|*
|
*|.
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
.|.
|
AC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0.003
0.089
-0.053
0.016
-0.060
-0.032
0.068
-0.088
0.025
0.038
-0.020
-0.028
PAC
0.003
0.089
-0.053
0.008
-0.052
-0.037
0.081
-0.091
0.013
0.060
-0.042
-0.023
Q-Stat
Prob
0.0011
0.9579
1.2950
1.3253
1.7768
1.9057
2.4904
3.4791
3.5620
3.7519
3.8042
3.9078
0.973
0.619
0.730
0.857
0.879
0.928
0.928
0.901
0.938
0.958
0.975
0.985
12
CAPITULO IV
CONCLUSIONES Y RECOMENDACIONES
1. Se puede concluir, que con un nivel de confianza del 95%, los determinantes
de la evolucin del Indice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima, son: El
Indice del Producto Sector Construccin Peruano - BCRP, el Dow Jones
Industrial Average Index Chicago Board Trade, el Indice del Tipo de Cambio
Real Multilateral (Soles por Dlar) - BCRP, el Gold and Silver Index Filadelphya, el Oil Index AMEX.
14
CAPITULO V
REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRAFICAS
Instrumentos
para
la
Toma
de
Decisiones.
Lima:
Edit.
16
13. Maravall Agustn y Del Ro Ana. Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott
Filter - Documentos de Trabajo N 08. Madrid Espaa. Banco de Espaa
Servicio de Estudios. Marzo 2001. 44p.
14. Max Hernan: Investigacin Econmica: Su Metodologa y su Tcnica. Edit.
Fondo de Cultura Econmica.
15. Pindyck Robert S, Rubinfeld Daniel L: Modelos
Economtricos. Espaa:
Pablo: Ensayo de
17
CAPITULO VI
ANEXOS
TABLA 01
CONST
86.44
78.40
93.20
85.54
87.49
90.54
91.59
108.37
116.57
119.99
118.93
122.93
116.49
104.62
115.39
107.29
125.61
112.51
110.74
127.30
119.25
126.29
122.37
120.45
110.22
105.76
111.11
101.34
120.69
101.90
110.69
121.31
116.33
124.72
122.84
129.29
128.39
121.82
115.05
125.40
128.09
119.73
125.60
135.56
144.04
152.16
137.09
148.56
132.58
127.83
132.00
124.79
117.75
128.10
135.25
149.44
148.79
136.08
128.90
129.50
DJI
3978.40
3832.00
3636.00
3681.70
3758.40
3625.00
3764.50
3913.40
3843.20
3908.10
3739.20
3834.40
3843.90
4011.10
4157.70
4321.30
4465.10
4556.10
4708.50
4610.60
4789.10
4755.50
5074.50
5117.10
5395.30
5485.60
5587.10
5569.10
5643.20
5654.60
5528.90
5616.20
5882.20
6029.40
6521.70
6448.30
6813.10
6877.70
6583.50
7009.00
7331.00
7672.80
8222.60
7622.40
7945.30
7442.10
7823.10
7908.30
7906.50
8545.70
8799.80
9063.40
8900.00
8952.00
8883.30
7539.10
7842.60
8592.10
9116.60
9181.40
IGBVL
1106.38
1183.43
1157.17
1079.77
1126.92
1086.48
1106.64
1168.15
1403.86
1525.94
1433.04
1414.92
1087.85
1016.73
1058.59
1405.55
1431.97
1447.70
1492.39
1474.19
1359.19
1265.32
1229.11
1243.37
1266.41
1264.96
1193.53
1256.17
1282.90
1366.15
1406.73
1428.60
1608.42
1500.42
1433.64
1429.02
1540.96
1620.06
1673.72
1758.77
2128.39
2155.01
2052.62
1974.20
2008.03
1859.14
1780.54
1792.71
1624.65
1585.78
1705.84
1889.50
1815.12
1641.64
1714.74
1265.53
1246.94
1231.62
1581.59
1335.88
ITCRM
100.56
99.92
98.93
98.30
98.47
98.03
100.28
101.55
103.46
103.42
100.51
96.67
98.49
99.39
101.48
103.33
102.88
102.44
101.46
99.24
98.39
98.85
99.71
98.85
98.43
97.80
96.84
96.24
97.16
98.07
97.49
98.25
98.88
100.65
101.99
100.26
100.66
99.84
98.01
98.80
98.91
97.94
96.51
95.49
95.25
96.19
97.38
94.58
93.56
94.95
94.21
94.48
94.78
95.71
95.71
96.32
100.80
103.76
105.00
106.51
XAU
131.84
128.39
133.70
114.43
120.32
115.25
111.75
118.52
132.23
117.41
102.70
109.33
97.38
103.83
121.97
116.93
120.00
120.19
118.70
122.66
124.20
107.18
121.11
120.42
141.05
144.06
143.83
143.42
148.89
123.76
124.35
124.55
115.18
115.60
120.19
116.75
110.20
122.46
104.12
93.86
104.31
95.60
97.92
98.87
109.50
87.91
70.82
74.19
74.97
75.45
81.67
87.93
74.71
71.72
62.92
48.89
74.99
75.39
70.96
64.97
XOI
LCONST
266.55
4.46
255.73
4.36
244.09
4.53
260.01
4.45
262.16
4.47
257.48
4.51
270.34
4.52
268.26
4.69
260.36
4.76
279.94
4.79
263.34
4.78
261.75
4.81
263.53
4.76
271.28
4.65
285.99
4.75
293.21
4.68
300.96
4.83
290.03
4.72
298.73
4.71
287.61
4.85
291.51
4.78
289.28
4.84
302.51
4.81
320.80
4.79
321.79
4.70
320.35
4.66
339.40
4.71
342.96
4.62
342.01
4.79
342.96
4.62
333.17
4.71
339.97
4.80
356.15
4.76
371.88
4.83
388.89
4.81
390.17
4.86
405.64
4.86
386.09
4.80
399.59
4.75
397.35
4.83
423.00
4.85
435.68
4.79
463.80
4.83
457.50
4.91
486.97
4.97
470.57
5.02
463.49
4.92
454.36
5.00
432.65
4.89
460.46
4.85
477.38
4.88
488.30
4.83
474.30
4.77
467.76
4.85
432.34
4.91
390.71
5.01
440.84
5.00
435.07
4.91
443.34
4.86
433.19
4.86
LDJI
8.29
8.25
8.20
8.21
8.23
8.20
8.23
8.27
8.25
8.27
8.23
8.25
8.25
8.30
8.33
8.37
8.40
8.42
8.46
8.44
8.47
8.47
8.53
8.54
8.59
8.61
8.63
8.62
8.64
8.64
8.62
8.63
8.68
8.70
8.78
8.77
8.83
8.84
8.79
8.85
8.90
8.95
9.01
8.94
8.98
8.91
8.96
8.98
8.98
9.05
9.08
9.11
9.09
9.10
9.09
8.93
8.97
9.06
9.12
9.12
LIGBVL
LITCRM
7.01
4.61
7.08
4.60
7.05
4.59
6.98
4.59
7.03
4.59
6.99
4.59
7.01
4.61
7.06
4.62
7.25
4.64
7.33
4.64
7.27
4.61
7.25
4.57
6.99
4.59
6.92
4.60
6.96
4.62
7.25
4.64
7.27
4.63
7.28
4.63
7.31
4.62
7.30
4.60
7.21
4.59
7.14
4.59
7.11
4.60
7.13
4.59
7.14
4.59
7.14
4.58
7.08
4.57
7.14
4.57
7.16
4.58
7.22
4.59
7.25
4.58
7.26
4.59
7.38
4.59
7.31
4.61
7.27
4.62
7.26
4.61
7.34
4.61
7.39
4.60
7.42
4.59
7.47
4.59
7.66
4.59
7.68
4.58
7.63
4.57
7.59
4.56
7.60
4.56
7.53
4.57
7.48
4.58
7.49
4.55
7.39
4.54
7.37
4.55
7.44
4.55
7.54
4.55
7.50
4.55
7.40
4.56
7.45
4.56
7.14
4.57
7.13
4.61
7.12
4.64
7.37
4.65
7.20
4.67
LXAU
4.88
4.86
4.90
4.74
4.79
4.75
4.72
4.78
4.88
4.77
4.63
4.69
4.58
4.64
4.80
4.76
4.79
4.79
4.78
4.81
4.82
4.67
4.80
4.79
4.95
4.97
4.97
4.97
5.00
4.82
4.82
4.82
4.75
4.75
4.79
4.76
4.70
4.81
4.65
4.54
4.65
4.56
4.58
4.59
4.70
4.48
4.26
4.31
4.32
4.32
4.40
4.48
4.31
4.27
4.14
3.89
4.32
4.32
4.26
4.17
19
LXOI
5.59
5.54
5.50
5.56
5.57
5.55
5.60
5.59
5.56
5.63
5.57
5.57
5.57
5.60
5.66
5.68
5.71
5.67
5.70
5.66
5.68
5.67
5.71
5.77
5.77
5.77
5.83
5.84
5.83
5.84
5.81
5.83
5.88
5.92
5.96
5.97
6.01
5.96
5.99
5.98
6.05
6.08
6.14
6.13
6.19
6.15
6.14
6.12
6.07
6.13
6.17
6.19
6.16
6.15
6.07
5.97
6.09
6.08
6.09
6.07
TABLA 01 (continuacin)
CONST
113.91
109.07
118.46
109.05
105.13
110.07
113.20
120.44
127.69
133.98
132.53
129.85
122.19
119.03
119.37
100.35
110.56
106.56
110.82
122.45
117.70
117.77
111.72
104.37
104.12
97.23
102.48
101.67
103.38
93.33
101.71
111.26
108.69
118.34
120.77
117.76
117.80
107.20
102.50
107.60
104.60
100.30
112.40
116.40
119.20
118.80
119.70
119.70
112.20
112.10
114.20
109.60
108.00
109.10
112.80
120.40
122.00
127.70
DJI
9358.80
9306.60
9786.20
10789.00
10559.70
10970.80
10655.20
10829.30
10337.00
10729.90
10877.80
11497.10
10940.50
10128.30
10921.90
10733.90
10522.30
10447.90
10522.00
11215.10
10650.90
10971.10
10414.50
10788.00
10887.40
10495.30
9878.80
10735.00
10911.90
10502.40
10522.80
9949.80
8847.60
9075.10
9851.60
10021.60
9920.00
10106.10
10403.90
9946.20
9925.30
9243.30
8736.60
8663.50
7591.93
8397.03
8896.09
8341.63
8053.81
7891.08
7992.13
8480.09
8850.26
8985.44
9233.80
9415.82
9275.06
9801.12
IGBVL
1320.55
1417.95
1470.28
1644.29
1647.45
1670.41
1649.58
1653.60
1854.62
1793.74
1820.00
1835.57
1822.55
1806.68
1663.07
1626.71
1461.69
1486.79
1355.80
1436.92
1355.56
1269.77
1199.70
1208.41
1280.64
1291.75
1271.92
1196.92
1311.58
1347.00
1331.68
1334.71
1217.95
1139.33
1167.46
1176.45
1274.28
1285.52
1299.76
1258.35
1240.59
1134.93
1169.55
1195.37
1150.07
1232.92
1373.03
1391.97
1517.40
1556.31
1558.90
1768.56
1808.34
1824.88
1850.17
1896.82
1980.83
2109.18
ITCRM
109.04
110.72
108.83
108.35
106.89
105.86
104.76
106.96
108.60
110.99
110.63
110.88
111.68
109.17
108.63
108.96
107.53
108.29
107.42
105.96
105.12
104.71
105.57
105.16
105.81
105.32
103.52
104.34
105.27
102.57
100.99
102.23
102.22
100.59
100.52
100.60
100.69
99.52
98.74
98.39
98.85
99.77
102.05
102.07
102.26
100.20
101.32
100.37
101.09
100.65
100.37
101.32
104.56
105.40
104.78
104.18
105.01
107.06
XAU
63.26
60.56
59.76
73.42
60.87
66.93
62.87
67.34
80.26
69.55
67.04
67.97
59.98
59.76
56.50
54.75
56.28
57.81
50.85
52.34
49.92
43.87
47.08
51.41
48.86
52.51
47.57
55.13
57.13
53.25
53.06
56.56
57.79
54.53
52.57
54.43
61.33
65.16
70.89
73.96
84.24
71.46
60.54
69.46
69.74
63.44
63.38
76.76
77.00
71.99
66.92
65.30
73.46
78.65
81.12
91.00
91.12
98.08
XOI
LCONST
394.97
4.74
384.96
4.69
450.59
4.77
515.08
4.69
505.39
4.66
508.33
4.70
514.68
4.73
521.61
4.79
507.38
4.85
503.47
4.90
511.64
4.89
503.00
4.87
467.79
4.81
430.30
4.78
501.99
4.78
488.92
4.61
537.97
4.71
505.35
4.67
480.59
4.71
520.25
4.81
526.68
4.77
518.87
4.77
505.10
4.72
536.25
4.65
527.98
4.65
525.39
4.58
529.44
4.63
584.80
4.62
586.16
4.64
548.85
4.54
548.28
4.62
548.85
4.71
498.16
4.69
507.97
4.77
490.80
4.79
519.99
4.77
508.20
4.77
526.08
4.67
565.87
4.63
541.60
4.68
545.93
4.65
548.45
4.61
483.07
4.72
490.59
4.76
444.58
4.78
430.07
4.78
436.85
4.78
446.84
4.78
426.99
4.72
425.86
4.72
429.97
4.74
430.76
4.70
471.29
4.68
473.65
4.69
462.29
4.73
480.10
4.79
480.16
4.80
490.28
4.85
LDJI
9.14
9.14
9.19
9.29
9.26
9.30
9.27
9.29
9.24
9.28
9.29
9.35
9.30
9.22
9.30
9.28
9.26
9.25
9.26
9.33
9.27
9.30
9.25
9.29
9.30
9.26
9.20
9.28
9.30
9.26
9.26
9.21
9.09
9.11
9.20
9.21
9.20
9.22
9.25
9.20
9.20
9.13
9.08
9.07
8.93
9.04
9.09
9.03
8.99
8.97
8.99
9.05
9.09
9.10
9.13
9.15
9.14
9.19
LIGBVL
LITCRM
7.19
4.69
7.26
4.71
7.29
4.69
7.41
4.69
7.41
4.67
7.42
4.66
7.41
4.65
7.41
4.67
7.53
4.69
7.49
4.71
7.51
4.71
7.52
4.71
7.51
4.72
7.50
4.69
7.42
4.69
7.39
4.69
7.29
4.68
7.30
4.68
7.21
4.68
7.27
4.66
7.21
4.66
7.15
4.65
7.09
4.66
7.10
4.66
7.16
4.66
7.16
4.66
7.15
4.64
7.09
4.65
7.18
4.66
7.21
4.63
7.19
4.62
7.20
4.63
7.10
4.63
7.04
4.61
7.06
4.61
7.07
4.61
7.15
4.61
7.16
4.60
7.17
4.59
7.14
4.59
7.12
4.59
7.03
4.60
7.06
4.63
7.09
4.63
7.05
4.63
7.12
4.61
7.22
4.62
7.24
4.61
7.32
4.62
7.35
4.61
7.35
4.61
7.48
4.62
7.50
4.65
7.51
4.66
7.52
4.65
7.55
4.65
7.59
4.65
7.65
4.67
LXAU
4.15
4.10
4.09
4.30
4.11
4.20
4.14
4.21
4.39
4.24
4.21
4.22
4.09
4.09
4.03
4.00
4.03
4.06
3.93
3.96
3.91
3.78
3.85
3.94
3.89
3.96
3.86
4.01
4.05
3.97
3.97
4.04
4.06
4.00
3.96
4.00
4.12
4.18
4.26
4.30
4.43
4.27
4.10
4.24
4.24
4.15
4.15
4.34
4.34
4.28
4.20
4.18
4.30
4.37
4.40
4.51
4.51
4.59
20
LXOI
5.98
5.95
6.11
6.24
6.23
6.23
6.24
6.26
6.23
6.22
6.24
6.22
6.15
6.06
6.22
6.19
6.29
6.23
6.18
6.25
6.27
6.25
6.22
6.28
6.27
6.26
6.27
6.37
6.37
6.31
6.31
6.31
6.21
6.23
6.20
6.25
6.23
6.27
6.34
6.29
6.30
6.31
6.18
6.20
6.10
6.06
6.08
6.10
6.06
6.05
6.06
6.07
6.16
6.16
6.14
6.17
6.17
6.19
TABLA 02
VARIABLES GENERADAS PARA PRUEBAS DE ESTIMACIN CON EL MODELO
OBS
1994:01
1994:02
1994:03
1994:04
1994:05
1994:06
1994:07
1994:08
1994:09
1994:10
1994:11
1994:12
1995:01
1995:02
1995:03
1995:04
1995:05
1995:06
1995:07
1995:08
1995:09
1995:10
1995:11
1995:12
1996:01
1996:02
1996:03
1996:04
1996:05
1996:06
1996:07
1996:08
1996:09
1996:10
1996:11
1996:12
1997:01
1997:02
1997:03
1997:04
1997:05
1997:06
1997:07
1997:08
1997:09
1997:10
1997:11
1997:12
1998:01
1998:02
1998:03
1998:04
1998:05
1998:06
1998:07
1998:08
1998:09
1998:10
1998:11
1998:12
DHLCONS
T
-0.0787
-0.1881
-0.0269
-0.1243
-0.1134
-0.0907
-0.0906
0.0663
0.1281
0.1462
0.1267
0.1496
0.0858
-0.0313
0.0575
-0.0242
0.1248
0.0065
-0.0173
0.1144
0.0418
0.0921
0.0540
0.0316
-0.0634
-0.1107
-0.0672
-0.1650
0.0042
-0.1705
-0.0931
-0.0066
-0.0536
0.0112
-0.0086
0.0381
0.0269
-0.0296
-0.0904
-0.0077
0.0103
-0.0599
-0.0145
0.0598
0.1188
0.1725
0.0674
0.1474
0.0338
-0.0021
0.0310
-0.0237
-0.0800
0.0064
0.0633
0.1661
0.1651
0.0794
0.0291
0.0379
DHLDJI
0.1453
0.0916
0.0228
0.0190
0.0233
-0.0293
-0.0080
0.0142
-0.0206
-0.0207
-0.0819
-0.0740
-0.0889
-0.0639
-0.0458
-0.0251
-0.0105
-0.0086
0.0058
-0.0338
-0.0146
-0.0405
0.0055
-0.0052
0.0286
0.0260
0.0251
0.0026
-0.0035
-0.0208
-0.0626
-0.0662
-0.0391
-0.0336
0.0258
-0.0046
0.0316
0.0223
-0.0399
0.0044
0.0312
0.0589
0.1105
0.0174
0.0419
-0.0402
-0.0066
-0.0118
-0.0277
0.0347
0.0490
0.0639
0.0314
0.0234
0.0021
-0.1751
-0.1484
-0.0695
-0.0222
-0.0267
DHLIGBVL
-0.0170
0.0409
0.0091
-0.0694
-0.0361
-0.0820
-0.0729
-0.0282
0.1463
0.2205
0.1485
0.1266
-0.1454
-0.2221
-0.1909
0.0835
0.0929
0.0947
0.1160
0.0946
0.0042
-0.0765
-0.1148
-0.1126
-0.1037
-0.1143
-0.1820
-0.1405
-0.1292
-0.0760
-0.0564
-0.0505
0.0586
-0.0201
-0.0745
-0.0864
-0.0192
0.0231
0.0484
0.0913
0.2760
0.2831
0.2298
0.1870
0.2009
0.1215
0.0767
0.0826
-0.0161
-0.0400
0.0339
0.1376
0.0994
0.0013
0.0476
-0.2532
-0.2647
-0.2736
-0.0198
-0.1848
DHLITCRM
0.0018
-0.0040
-0.0134
-0.0192
-0.0170
-0.0209
0.0024
0.0155
0.0347
0.0350
0.0071
-0.0312
-0.0119
-0.0021
0.0194
0.0382
0.0346
0.0311
0.0223
0.0010
-0.0068
-0.0013
0.0081
0.0002
-0.0033
-0.0091
-0.0183
-0.0239
-0.0139
-0.0041
-0.0096
-0.0016
0.0050
0.0229
0.0362
0.0191
0.0229
0.0145
-0.0043
0.0032
0.0038
-0.0069
-0.0225
-0.0342
-0.0380
-0.0296
-0.0189
-0.0499
-0.0628
-0.0503
-0.0605
-0.0602
-0.0598
-0.0529
-0.0559
-0.0526
-0.0103
0.0155
0.0242
0.0353
DHLXAU
0.0604
0.0350
0.0767
-0.0778
-0.0265
-0.0684
-0.0982
-0.0383
0.0722
-0.0457
-0.1786
-0.1151
-0.2298
-0.1647
-0.0025
-0.0435
-0.0161
-0.0128
-0.0233
0.0120
0.0273
-0.1168
0.0093
0.0082
0.1715
0.1986
0.2038
0.2086
0.2546
0.0792
0.0943
0.1071
0.0410
0.0575
0.1102
0.0956
0.0531
0.1745
0.0289
-0.0577
0.0655
-0.0036
0.0389
0.0674
0.1886
-0.0118
-0.2086
-0.1427
-0.1129
-0.0872
0.0110
0.1038
-0.0406
-0.0631
-0.1761
-0.4108
0.0341
0.0560
0.0117
-0.0608
DHLXOI
0.0890
0.0361
-0.0219
0.0298
0.0266
-0.0030
0.0342
0.0149
-0.0267
0.0340
-0.0389
-0.0570
-0.0623
-0.0455
-0.0050
0.0074
0.0209
-0.0288
-0.0122
-0.0631
-0.0628
-0.0837
-0.0524
-0.0072
-0.0178
-0.0359
0.0081
0.0048
-0.0117
-0.0226
-0.0653
-0.0587
-0.0257
0.0041
0.0356
0.0259
0.0520
-0.0099
0.0122
-0.0054
0.0456
0.0639
0.1156
0.0915
0.1440
0.1001
0.0758
0.0472
-0.0101
0.0442
0.0727
0.0881
0.0520
0.0314
-0.0538
-0.1614
-0.0468
-0.0660
-0.0531
-0.0820
21
TABLA 02 (continuacin)
VARIABLES GENERADAS PARA PRUEBAS DE ESTIMACIN CON EL MODELO
OBS
1994:01
1994:02
1994:03
1994:04
1994:05
1994:06
1994:07
1994:08
1994:09
1994:10
1994:11
1994:12
1995:01
1995:02
1995:03
1995:04
1995:05
1995:06
1995:07
1995:08
1995:09
1995:10
1995:11
1995:12
1996:01
1996:02
1996:03
1996:04
1996:05
1996:06
1996:07
1996:08
1996:09
1996:10
1996:11
1996:12
1997:01
1997:02
1997:03
1997:04
1997:05
1997:06
1997:07
1997:08
1997:09
1997:10
1997:11
1997:12
1998:01
1998:02
1998:03
1998:04
1998:05
1998:06
1998:07
1998:08
1998:09
1998:10
1998:11
1998:12
HPLCONST
4.5382
4.5499
4.5616
4.5733
4.5849
4.5965
4.6080
4.6193
4.6304
4.6412
4.6518
4.6620
4.6720
4.6816
4.6908
4.6998
4.7083
4.7166
4.7245
4.7321
4.7394
4.7464
4.7531
4.7596
4.7658
4.7719
4.7777
4.7835
4.7890
4.7945
4.7998
4.8050
4.8100
4.8149
4.8195
4.8240
4.8282
4.8321
4.8358
4.8392
4.8423
4.8451
4.8476
4.8496
4.8513
4.8525
4.8532
4.8535
4.8534
4.8528
4.8518
4.8504
4.8486
4.8464
4.8438
4.8408
4.8375
4.8339
4.8299
4.8257
HPLDJI
8.1433
8.1596
8.1758
8.1921
8.2085
8.2249
8.2414
8.2580
8.2747
8.2915
8.3086
8.3258
8.3431
8.3607
8.3785
8.3964
8.4146
8.4329
8.4513
8.4699
8.4887
8.5075
8.5265
8.5456
8.5647
8.5839
8.6031
8.6224
8.6417
8.6610
8.6803
8.6996
8.7188
8.7380
8.7571
8.7761
8.7950
8.8137
8.8323
8.8506
8.8687
8.8865
8.9041
8.9214
8.9384
8.9551
8.9714
8.9875
9.0032
9.0185
9.0335
9.0481
9.0624
9.0763
9.0898
9.1029
9.1157
9.1281
9.1400
9.1516
HPLIGBVL
7.0259
7.0352
7.0446
7.0539
7.0633
7.0727
7.0820
7.0913
7.1006
7.1099
7.1191
7.1282
7.1373
7.1465
7.1556
7.1647
7.1739
7.1830
7.1921
7.2013
7.2104
7.2196
7.2289
7.2382
7.2476
7.2571
7.2667
7.2764
7.2861
7.2958
7.3054
7.3150
7.3244
7.3336
7.3425
7.3511
7.3593
7.3671
7.3744
7.3811
7.3871
7.3925
7.3971
7.4009
7.4040
7.4064
7.4080
7.4089
7.4092
7.4088
7.4079
7.4065
7.4045
7.4022
7.3995
7.3964
7.3931
7.3896
7.3860
7.3821
HPLITCRM
4.6089
4.6084
4.6078
4.6073
4.6067
4.6062
4.6056
4.6050
4.6044
4.6038
4.6032
4.6025
4.6019
4.6012
4.6005
4.5997
4.5990
4.5982
4.5974
4.5966
4.5958
4.5950
4.5942
4.5934
4.5927
4.5920
4.5913
4.5908
4.5902
4.5898
4.5894
4.5891
4.5889
4.5887
4.5887
4.5887
4.5888
4.5890
4.5894
4.5898
4.5905
4.5912
4.5921
4.5932
4.5945
4.5959
4.5976
4.5994
4.6014
4.6036
4.6060
4.6086
4.6113
4.6142
4.6172
4.6203
4.6234
4.6266
4.6298
4.6329
HPLXAU
4.8212
4.8201
4.8189
4.8177
4.8166
4.8155
4.8144
4.8134
4.8124
4.8114
4.8104
4.8095
4.8085
4.8074
4.8063
4.8051
4.8036
4.8019
4.7999
4.7975
4.7946
4.7913
4.7874
4.7828
4.7776
4.7716
4.7648
4.7571
4.7486
4.7391
4.7288
4.7176
4.7055
4.6926
4.6789
4.6644
4.6492
4.6332
4.6167
4.5995
4.5819
4.5638
4.5453
4.5264
4.5073
4.4881
4.4687
4.4493
4.4300
4.4107
4.3916
4.3728
4.3542
4.3359
4.3179
4.3004
4.2833
4.2666
4.2504
4.2347
HPLXOI
5.4965
5.5080
5.5194
5.5309
5.5424
5.5539
5.5655
5.5771
5.5888
5.6005
5.6124
5.6243
5.6364
5.6486
5.6610
5.6735
5.6861
5.6988
5.7117
5.7247
5.7379
5.7511
5.7645
5.7781
5.7917
5.8053
5.8190
5.8328
5.8465
5.8602
5.8739
5.8875
5.9011
5.9144
5.9277
5.9407
5.9535
5.9660
5.9783
5.9902
6.0018
6.0130
6.0238
6.0342
6.0442
6.0538
6.0629
6.0717
6.0800
6.0880
6.0956
6.1029
6.1099
6.1166
6.1231
6.1293
6.1355
6.1415
6.1474
6.1532
22
TABLA 02 (continuacin)
VARIABLES GENERADAS PARA PRUEBAS DE ESTIMACIN CON EL MODELO
OBS
1999:01
1999:02
1999:03
1999:04
1999:05
1999:06
1999:07
1999:08
1999:09
1999:10
1999:11
1999:12
2000:01
2000:02
2000:03
2000:04
2000:05
2000:06
2000:07
2000:08
2000:09
2000:10
2000:11
2000:12
2001:01
2001:02
2001:03
2001:04
2001:05
2001:06
2001:07
2001:08
2001:09
2001:10
2001:11
2001:12
2002:01
2002:02
2002:03
2002:04
2002:05
2002:06
2002:07
2002:08
2002:09
2002:10
2002:11
2002:12
2003:01
2003:02
2003:03
2003:04
2003:05
2003:06
2003:07
2003:08
2003:09
2003:10
DHLCONST
-0.0859
-0.1247
-0.0374
-0.1155
-0.1472
-0.0963
-0.0633
0.0036
0.0671
0.1202
0.1144
0.0990
0.0433
0.0221
0.0300
-0.1386
-0.0370
-0.0693
-0.0257
0.0784
0.0428
0.0472
-0.0020
-0.0668
-0.0662
-0.1320
-0.0772
-0.0832
-0.0650
-0.1661
-0.0792
0.0111
-0.0121
0.0729
0.0929
0.0671
0.0667
-0.0286
-0.0747
-0.0276
-0.0575
-0.1013
0.0106
0.0435
0.0650
0.0593
0.0644
0.0618
-0.0055
-0.0090
0.0068
-0.0371
-0.0546
-0.0474
-0.0170
0.0452
0.0554
0.0981
DHLDJI
-0.0186
-0.0348
0.0053
0.0933
0.0628
0.0926
0.0557
0.0648
0.0117
0.0432
0.0517
0.1026
0.0491
-0.0312
0.0417
0.0224
0.0012
-0.0066
0.0004
0.0647
0.0141
0.0453
-0.0047
0.0332
0.0454
0.0123
-0.0442
0.0433
0.0644
0.0313
0.0386
-0.0116
-0.1231
-0.0915
-0.0031
0.0205
0.0170
0.0423
0.0782
0.0402
0.0450
-0.0193
-0.0687
-0.0703
-0.1957
-0.0883
-0.0242
-0.0823
-0.1113
-0.1258
-0.1074
-0.0425
0.0057
0.0263
0.0588
0.0836
0.0738
0.1342
DHLIGBVL
-0.1923
-0.1170
-0.0764
0.0401
0.0469
0.0658
0.0587
0.0670
0.1878
0.1609
0.1823
0.1981
0.1985
0.1977
0.1229
0.1091
0.0106
0.0361
-0.0478
0.0186
-0.0316
-0.0893
-0.1386
-0.1245
-0.0600
-0.0455
-0.0557
-0.1119
-0.0165
0.0133
0.0043
0.0081
-0.0827
-0.1496
-0.1263
-0.1207
-0.0437
-0.0389
-0.0327
-0.0709
-0.0918
-0.1885
-0.1670
-0.1547
-0.2036
-0.1452
-0.0494
-0.0481
0.0251
0.0369
0.0246
0.1365
0.1442
0.1386
0.1375
0.1475
0.1758
0.2236
DHLITCRM
0.0558
0.0681
0.0481
0.0410
0.0250
0.0130
0.0004
0.0193
0.0328
0.0531
0.0487
0.0500
0.0564
0.0332
0.0281
0.0311
0.0181
0.0256
0.0181
0.0052
-0.0018
-0.0046
0.0049
0.0023
0.0099
0.0068
-0.0088
0.0007
0.0112
-0.0131
-0.0269
-0.0131
-0.0116
-0.0262
-0.0254
-0.0232
-0.0211
-0.0316
-0.0384
-0.0410
-0.0355
-0.0255
-0.0024
-0.0017
0.0006
-0.0195
-0.0081
-0.0175
-0.0104
-0.0147
-0.0177
-0.0084
0.0228
0.0306
0.0245
0.0184
0.0261
0.0451
DHLXAU
-0.0722
-0.1010
-0.1001
0.1196
-0.0545
0.0532
0.0030
0.0836
0.2706
0.1383
0.1121
0.1358
0.0202
0.0253
-0.0227
-0.0467
-0.0125
0.0201
-0.1032
-0.0702
-0.1144
-0.2415
-0.1698
-0.0817
-0.1335
-0.0634
-0.1652
-0.0216
0.0091
-0.0670
-0.0773
-0.0210
-0.0078
-0.0750
-0.1215
-0.0973
0.0109
0.0598
0.1319
0.1617
0.2788
0.1010
-0.0785
0.0450
0.0348
-0.0744
-0.0902
0.0863
0.0742
-0.0085
-0.0972
-0.1375
-0.0357
0.0165
0.0312
0.1299
0.1150
0.1723
DHLXOI
-0.1801
-0.2115
-0.0596
0.0686
0.0443
0.0448
0.0522
0.0606
0.0282
0.0159
0.0276
0.0063
-0.0703
-0.1576
-0.0072
-0.0370
0.0553
-0.0102
-0.0632
0.0136
0.0237
0.0068
-0.0217
0.0369
0.0205
0.0151
0.0226
0.1223
0.1253
0.0606
0.0611
0.0640
-0.0306
-0.0085
-0.0399
0.0212
0.0019
0.0404
0.1175
0.0781
0.0908
0.1004
-0.0214
-0.0007
-0.0939
-0.1217
-0.1007
-0.0727
-0.1128
-0.1102
-0.0954
-0.0884
0.0066
0.0167
-0.0026
0.0402
0.0453
0.0711
23
TABLA 02 (continuacin)
VARIABLES GENERADAS PARA PRUEBAS DE ESTIMACIN CON EL MODELO
OBS
1999:01
1999:02
1999:03
1999:04
1999:05
1999:06
1999:07
1999:08
1999:09
1999:10
1999:11
1999:12
2000:01
2000:02
2000:03
2000:04
2000:05
2000:06
2000:07
2000:08
2000:09
2000:10
2000:11
2000:12
2001:01
2001:02
2001:03
2001:04
2001:05
2001:06
2001:07
2001:08
2001:09
2001:10
2001:11
2001:12
2002:01
2002:02
2002:03
2002:04
2002:05
2002:06
2002:07
2002:08
2002:09
2002:10
2002:11
2002:12
2003:01
2003:02
2003:03
2003:04
2003:05
2003:06
2003:07
2003:08
2003:09
2003:10
HPLCONST
4.8213
4.8167
4.8120
4.8072
4.8023
4.7974
4.7925
4.7875
4.7825
4.7775
4.7724
4.7673
4.7622
4.7572
4.7522
4.7473
4.7426
4.7380
4.7336
4.7293
4.7253
4.7215
4.7180
4.7147
4.7118
4.7091
4.7069
4.7049
4.7034
4.7022
4.7013
4.7008
4.7006
4.7007
4.7010
4.7015
4.7023
4.7033
4.7046
4.7060
4.7076
4.7094
4.7114
4.7136
4.7158
4.7182
4.7206
4.7231
4.7257
4.7284
4.7311
4.7339
4.7368
4.7397
4.7426
4.7456
4.7486
4.7516
HPLDJI
9.1627
9.1733
9.1834
9.1930
9.2020
9.2104
9.2181
9.2253
9.2317
9.2376
9.2427
9.2472
9.2511
9.2543
9.2568
9.2587
9.2600
9.2607
9.2608
9.2604
9.2593
9.2577
9.2556
9.2530
9.2499
9.2464
9.2424
9.2380
9.2332
9.2281
9.2227
9.2170
9.2110
9.2048
9.1985
9.1920
9.1853
9.1786
9.1717
9.1648
9.1579
9.1509
9.1440
9.1372
9.1305
9.1239
9.1175
9.1113
9.1052
9.0993
9.0936
9.0880
9.0825
9.0771
9.0718
9.0665
9.0613
9.0560
HPLIGBVL
7.3781
7.3739
7.3696
7.3650
7.3601
7.3550
7.3495
7.3438
7.3376
7.3311
7.3242
7.3170
7.3095
7.3016
7.2935
7.2852
7.2768
7.2683
7.2599
7.2517
7.2436
7.2358
7.2285
7.2215
7.2151
7.2092
7.2040
7.1994
7.1955
7.1923
7.1899
7.1884
7.1877
7.1878
7.1889
7.1909
7.1939
7.1978
7.2026
7.2084
7.2152
7.2228
7.2314
7.2409
7.2512
7.2623
7.2741
7.2866
7.2997
7.3132
7.3272
7.3414
7.3560
7.3707
7.3856
7.4005
7.4155
7.4304
HPLITCRM
4.6359
4.6389
4.6417
4.6444
4.6468
4.6492
4.6513
4.6532
4.6549
4.6563
4.6575
4.6585
4.6592
4.6597
4.6599
4.6599
4.6597
4.6593
4.6586
4.6578
4.6569
4.6557
4.6545
4.6532
4.6517
4.6502
4.6486
4.6469
4.6453
4.6436
4.6420
4.6403
4.6387
4.6372
4.6358
4.6344
4.6331
4.6319
4.6309
4.6299
4.6291
4.6284
4.6278
4.6273
4.6269
4.6266
4.6264
4.6263
4.6263
4.6264
4.6265
4.6267
4.6269
4.6271
4.6274
4.6277
4.6280
4.6283
HPLXAU
4.2194
4.2047
4.1904
4.1766
4.1633
4.1504
4.1381
4.1261
4.1147
4.1037
4.0932
4.0833
4.0739
4.0651
4.0569
4.0495
4.0429
4.0370
4.0320
4.0280
4.0249
4.0227
4.0216
4.0215
4.0225
4.0244
4.0274
4.0313
4.0362
4.0420
4.0487
4.0563
4.0647
4.0738
4.0836
4.0942
4.1053
4.1170
4.1292
4.1418
4.1548
4.1682
4.1818
4.1958
4.2100
4.2245
4.2393
4.2543
4.2696
4.2850
4.3007
4.3165
4.3324
4.3485
4.3647
4.3809
4.3972
4.4135
HPLXOI
6.1589
6.1646
6.1702
6.1757
6.1811
6.1863
6.1914
6.1963
6.2011
6.2056
6.2100
6.2142
6.2183
6.2221
6.2258
6.2292
6.2325
6.2355
6.2382
6.2407
6.2429
6.2448
6.2464
6.2477
6.2485
6.2491
6.2492
6.2489
6.2483
6.2472
6.2457
6.2438
6.2415
6.2389
6.2359
6.2326
6.2290
6.2251
6.2209
6.2164
6.2117
6.2067
6.2016
6.1964
6.1910
6.1856
6.1802
6.1749
6.1696
6.1643
6.1591
6.1539
6.1488
6.1438
6.1388
6.1338
6.1289
6.1239
24