Economic Situation Report

Economic
Situation
Report

February 2014


















Investment Strategy





Adriana Rodrguez
arodriguez@aldesa.com


Economic Situation Report
Economic Activity
The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) closed the year with a 3.98% expansion
and was marked with an average variation of 3.50% for the year, which lead to a
3.5% GDP growth for 2013.

The months with the greatest growth were between May and September, which
contributed to approximately 70% of the annual growth.

The best annual growth at the December closing for the industrial level was for the
sector known as Indirectly Measured Financial Intermediation Services which grew
at a rate of 9.53%; and the third best growth was shown by the Finance and
Insurance Service industry with 7.39%. Both benefitted from the increased capture
and placement of resources among the private sector according to the Central
Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR).

Transport, storage and communications had the second best annual expansion rate
(7.59%) according to BCCR, which was mainly due to increased exports and tourism.

Monthly Economic Activity
Interannual and Average Variation

Source: Aldesa graph based on BCCR data.





Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




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IMAE Variation

Economic Situation Report




2

According to BCCR data, credit to the private sector grew at an interannual rate of
15% as of February, with high monthly rates, mainly from the second half of last year.

The manufacturing sector experienced high volatility. Starting out with negative
interannual rates (contraction), then it started showing interannual rates of over 10%
towards the second half of 2013 and ended the year with an interannnual
expansion of 5.54%.

This high volatility was explained by the behavior suffered by the exports and
production from the Free Trade Zones, where the pace of the interannual economic
activity exceeded 20% in September of 2013 and was moderated during the third
quarter to finish the year with a 7.8% expansion.

The economic activity for the Definitive Regime was a bit more stable, and very
sluggishly started the year, but sped up as the year progressed and ended with a
4.5% growth.

Sales levels for total exports grew by 1.15% in 2013, and by January the interannual
rate was 0.4%.

In January, the monthly exports for the definitive regime increased by $10 million
compared to December and reached $391 million, and continues to maintain a
positive trend. Exports from the Free Trade Zones fell by $22 million reaching $439
million.

The construction sector lost a bit of traction during the year, and after starting the
period with an interannual rate of 4.3% closed at 1.20%. According to data provided
by the BCCR, the decreased general index was due to a 6% contraction in the
construction of public works, but saw a 5% increase in the construction of private
works.

Finally, the agricultural sector experienced a slight improvement after a long sluggish
period, and ended the year with an expansion rate of 1.90%.

Economic Situation Report




3

Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




3
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Al cierre de febrero, el 51% de los
292 bienes que componen la
Canasta Bsica aumentaron de
precio, 40% baj de precio y un
9% no present variaciones,
segn los datos del INEC.

Inflation

The monthly increase for the Basic Basket price for February was 0.66%, which was
significantly less than the increase registered in February 2013 when prices spiked to
1.02% for that month. Interannual inflation for February was 2.74%.

The accrued increase for the first bimester was 1.42%, however the previous year
registered 2.34%.

This year indicates that the exchange rate increase will be a trigger that can
unchain a series of upward price adjustments, as the cost of imported raw materials
goes up. Last years force behind the increases was due to the price increase
adjustments for regulated goods and services of 16% interannual at April as shown in
the graph below.

Effectively, tradable assets for February presented the greatest monthly inflation
(0.95%) when compared to price behaviors for non-tradable assets (0.52%),
regulated (0.41%) and non-regulated assets (0.74%).

The increase in the exchange rate can explain the behavior observed, however
January and February usually present higher price increases for the year and
therefore it would be premature to indicate a specific cause, as well as forecast
inflations above the range indicated by the Central Bank.

Consumer Price Index
Interannual variation















Source: Aldesa graph based on INEC data.

At the closing of February, 51% of
the 292 goods in the Basic Basket
increased in price, 40%
decreased and 9% showed no
change according to INEC data.

Regulated Inflation IPC Interannual Variation Un-Regulated Variation

Economic Situation Report




4
According to INEC, Februarys main monthly increases came from the following
categories: education (4.06%), transportation (1.71%), entertainment and culture
(1.65%) and food and beverages outside of the household (0.82%).
And by line items, the most significant increases within the inflation for February were
those presented by: vehicle acquisition, secondary education, primary education, fuel
and higher education.

Interest Rates

Interest rate behavior for February has been different among the short-term interest
rates and medium- and long-term interest rates for investment instruments that are
traded at the national stock exchange market.

The Basic Lending Rate (BLR), which movements are related more to the liquidity
levels of the financial system, showed a downward movement for February and
reaching 6.45% in the first week of March, its lowest level since 2008.

The reason behind this last downward spike of this important reference rate is due to
the reduction of the capture rates paid by the cooperative sector, because its the
only sector of four that enters the weekly BLR calculation that presented an
adjustment and lowered its average rate from 8.11% to 7.88%.


Base Lending Rate

Source: BCCR. Prepared by Aldesa.

Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




4
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Economic Situation Report




5
Liquidity levels for the financial system remain modest and for the time being the
rhythm of the credit need from the economic activity growth and private sector
have yet to provide any type of pressure on short-term rates.
This situation can change if the BCCR continues selling currency and capturing
liquidity through monetary stabilization bonds; however we dont believe the BCCR
will go down this road.
The medium- and long-term rates traded for the internal debt instruments issued by
the Ministry of Treasury have responded to the increase due to the uncertainty
brought on from the current fiscal deficit, which ended in December at 5.4% GDP.
Interest rates in USD for the traded internal market bonds are showing stability with
certain pressure to increase prices. This is due to after the significant fall suffered by
bond prices in May 2013 they started being attractive once again because they
became cheaper in relation to other term investment instruments in the international
markets.

Exchange Rate
Average MONEX Exchange Rate

Source: Aldesa graph based on BCCR data.






Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




5
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Devaluacin acumulada del ao 12,8%
Ave. ExRate
Yearly Accrued Devaluation 12.8%
Int.Purchase

Economic Situation Report




6
The exchange rate for February had a notable increase that started in the last week
of January.

The traded amounts in the MONEX foreign currency market was higher in February in
relation to the total traded and daily averages. February traded a total of $381
million, while January saw $346 million. The daily average went from $15.7 million to
$19 million.

However the situation at the bank clerks window was inverted. A total of $2.830
million was traded for January and $2.465 million in February.

Similarly, February recorded excess for the demand of dollars regarding its sale of
$33 million while in January clerks windows recorded excess in the sale of dollars of
$62 million.

Purchases by the Non-Banking Public Sector during the month of February was $103
million, significantly lower than the amount purchased in January of $178 million.
BCCR sold $104 million in February.

We consider that the foreign currency market is going through a transition period
and upward adjustment that naturally incorporates elements of speculation and
overreaction by the financial agents. However, in the medium-term, the tradable
volumes at the bank clerk windows and at MONEX will tend to stabilize.


Traded Amounts at Windows


Source: Aldesa graph based on BCCR data.



Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




6
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Economic Situation Report




7
The exchange rate should have shown a certain degree of devaluation during 2013
as a response to the changes seen by the international scenario and less dollars
entering the country due to reduced international sales, as well as decreased
investments in Colones.
All these changes were not reflected in the price of the dollar because it was
present in the MONEX market and dominated by the presence of Government
dollars.

Fiscal Deficit
The Costa Rican government needed ! 138 Billion (0.5% of GDP) to pay its expenses
for January, including ! 57 Billion to pay off interests for current debt. Total deficit for
January was ! 194 Billion (0.7% of GDP), which was financed internally according to
the information available by the Ministry of Treasury.
Earnings for the month were ! 280 Billion and expenses were ! 475 Billion.
January earnings were 9% more favorable that those recorded for the same month
in 2013, and total monthly expenses, including interests grew by 1.3% regarding
January of last year.
Within the current expenses, the line item for remuneration advanced by 11% in
relation to January of last year, while interest payment fell by 6.3%.
This reduced expense from the interest is explained by the fact that in January of
2013 bonds were still circulating and financial obligations had very high rates during
2012.
Monthly capital expenses fell by 75% in comparison to last year, but only represent
1.9% of the total expenditure.



Economic Situation Report




8

Additional Information


Economic Activity Index by Sector
Interannual variation


Source: Aldesa graph based on BCCR data.




Activity Index for the Manufacturing and Construction Sector
Interannual variation

Source: Aldesa graph based on BCCR data.


Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




8
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ndice de Actividad Econmica por Sectores
Variacin Interanual

"#$%&$' ()*+,-*./0% 1-,1/* .,% +*2$ * 3*&,2 3$) 45567






ndice de Actividad del Sector Manufactura y Construccin
Variacin Interanual


"#$%&$' ()*+,-*./0% 1-,1/* .,% +*2$ * 3*&,2 3$) 45567


!"!#$% &!'#$% ()*#$% )'*#$% ()+#$% ,-"#$% ,-.#$% )/0#$% 1!2#$% 034#$% "05#$% 673#$%
8!340* 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Servicios de Intermediacin Financiera Indirectos 8.97% 8.77% 8.83% 9.61% 10.88% 11.08% 10.36% 10.02% 9.97% 10.67% 10.96% 9.53%
Transporte, Almacenamiento y Comunicaciones 1.18% 1.45% 1.97% 2.37% 2.73% 3.15% 3.67% 4.36% 5.02% 5.81% 6.86% 7.59%
Servicios Financieros y Seguros 6.96% 6.79% 6.94% 7.42% 7.65% 7.59% 7.54% 7.63% 7.75% 7.81% 7.73% 7.39%
Industria manufacturera 0.54% -0.44% -0.76% 0.05% 2.13% 4.83% 7.20% 9.25% 10.35% 9.57% 7.29% 5.54%
Hoteles 3.43% 3.37% 3.34% 3.33% 3.36% 3.42% 3.52% 3.69% 3.90% 4.16% 4.47% 4.80%
Otros Servicios Prestados a Empresas 6.65% 5.87% 5.75% 6.04% 6.05% 5.46% 4.80% 4.79% 5.03% 4.73% 4.37% 4.49%
IMAE con IEAT, Tendencia Ciclo 2.64% 2.15% 1.99% 2.09% 2.67% 3.46% 4.08% 4.65% 4.97% 4.86% 4.35% 3.98%
Comercio 3.92% 3.90% 3.87% 3.78% 3.74% 3.71% 3.63% 3.53% 3.46% 3.46% 3.49% 3.53%
Resto de Industrias 3.33% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.31% 3.31% 3.31% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%
Agricultura, silvicultura y pesca 1.00% 0.21% -0.25% -0.43% -0.33% -0.11% 0.06% 0.20% 0.49% 0.94% 1.40% 1.93%
Extraccin de Minas y Canteras 5.29% 4.88% 4.46% 3.99% 3.51% 3.05% 2.66% 2.33% 2.06% 1.85% 1.68% 1.55%
Construccin 4.31% 4.06% 3.50% 2.80% 2.46% 2.27% 1.96% 1.70% 1.47% 1.31% 1.29% 1.20%
Electricidad y Agua 2.83% 1.79% 1.00% 0.82% 0.70% 0.33% 0.16% 0.27% 0.38% 0.40% 0.42% 0.40%
:;<= ?=@A=@B:< B:BCD !"#$% !"&'% &"((% !")(% !"#*% +"$#% $"),% $"#'% $"(*% $",#% $"+'% +"(,%

Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




8
!"#$%&'()*" ',)()$"'-


ndice de Actividad Econmica por Sectores
Variacin Interanual

"#$%&$' ()*+,-*./0% 1-,1/* .,% +*2$ * 3*&,2 3$) 45567






ndice de Actividad del Sector Manufactura y Construccin
Variacin Interanual


"#$%&$' ()*+,-*./0% 1-,1/* .,% +*2$ * 3*&,2 3$) 45567


!"!#$% &!'#$% ()*#$% )'*#$% ()+#$% ,-"#$% ,-.#$% )/0#$% 1!2#$% 034#$% "05#$% 673#$%
8!340* 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Servicios de Intermediacin Financiera Indirectos 8.97% 8.77% 8.83% 9.61% 10.88% 11.08% 10.36% 10.02% 9.97% 10.67% 10.96% 9.53%
Transporte, Almacenamiento y Comunicaciones 1.18% 1.45% 1.97% 2.37% 2.73% 3.15% 3.67% 4.36% 5.02% 5.81% 6.86% 7.59%
Servicios Financieros y Seguros 6.96% 6.79% 6.94% 7.42% 7.65% 7.59% 7.54% 7.63% 7.75% 7.81% 7.73% 7.39%
Industria manufacturera 0.54% -0.44% -0.76% 0.05% 2.13% 4.83% 7.20% 9.25% 10.35% 9.57% 7.29% 5.54%
Hoteles 3.43% 3.37% 3.34% 3.33% 3.36% 3.42% 3.52% 3.69% 3.90% 4.16% 4.47% 4.80%
Otros Servicios Prestados a Empresas 6.65% 5.87% 5.75% 6.04% 6.05% 5.46% 4.80% 4.79% 5.03% 4.73% 4.37% 4.49%
IMAE con IEAT, Tendencia Ciclo 2.64% 2.15% 1.99% 2.09% 2.67% 3.46% 4.08% 4.65% 4.97% 4.86% 4.35% 3.98%
Comercio 3.92% 3.90% 3.87% 3.78% 3.74% 3.71% 3.63% 3.53% 3.46% 3.46% 3.49% 3.53%
Resto de Industrias 3.33% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.32% 3.31% 3.31% 3.31% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%
Agricultura, silvicultura y pesca 1.00% 0.21% -0.25% -0.43% -0.33% -0.11% 0.06% 0.20% 0.49% 0.94% 1.40% 1.93%
Extraccin de Minas y Canteras 5.29% 4.88% 4.46% 3.99% 3.51% 3.05% 2.66% 2.33% 2.06% 1.85% 1.68% 1.55%
Construccin 4.31% 4.06% 3.50% 2.80% 2.46% 2.27% 1.96% 1.70% 1.47% 1.31% 1.29% 1.20%
Electricidad y Agua 2.83% 1.79% 1.00% 0.82% 0.70% 0.33% 0.16% 0.27% 0.38% 0.40% 0.42% 0.40%
:;<= ?=@A=@B:< B:BCD !"#$% !"&'% &"((% !")(% !"#*% +"$#% $"),% $"#'% $"(*% $",#% $"+'% +"(,%
Indirectly measured Financial Mediation Services
Transportation, Storage and Communication
Finance and Insurance Services
Other services Rendered to Companies
Mining and Quarry Material Exploitation
Commerce
Construction
Hotels
Remaining Industries
Agriculture, Silviculture and Fishing
Power and Water
IMAE with IEAT, Cycle Trend
Manufacturing Industry
IMAE CYCLE TREND
Manufacturing Industry Construction

Economic Situation Report




9


12-month Expected Inflation
BCCR expectations survey


Source: Aldesa graph based on BCCR data.



Secondary Market Yields

External Debt Instruments

Source: BNV. March 6, 2014.













Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




9







Expectativas de inflacin 12 meses
Encuesta de expectativas del BCCR


"#$%&$' ()*+,-*./0% 1-,1/* .,% +*2$ * 3*&,2 3$) 45567





Rendimientos Mercado Secundario

Instrumentos Deuda Externa


"#$%&$' 4897 :*-;, <= >?@A7







Instrumentos Deuda Interna
!"#$%& '()*+& ,)-.+/+)-#&
>?B?CB>?@A
@??7@DE @7DFE
?@B?DB>?>? @><7D?E G7?AE
><B?@B>?>C H>7DGE G7>FE
C?B?AB>?>G H?7@@E G7GDE
C?B?AB>?AC DA7G>E <7D<E
0.)1 3&4+)(-&

Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




9







Expectativas de inflacin 12 meses
Encuesta de expectativas del BCCR


"#$%&$' ()*+,-*./0% 1-,1/* .,% +*2$ * 3*&,2 3$) 45567





Rendimientos Mercado Secundario

Instrumentos Deuda Externa


"#$%&$' 4897 :*-;, <= >?@A7







Instrumentos Deuda Interna
!"#$%& '()*+& ,)-.+/+)-#&
>?B?CB>?@A
@??7@DE @7DFE
?@B?DB>?>? @><7D?E G7?AE
><B?@B>?>C H>7DGE G7>FE
C?B?AB>?>G H?7@@E G7GDE
C?B?AB>?AC DA7G>E <7D<E
0.)1 3&4+)(-&
12-month inflation
Price Bond Yield
Government $ Bonds

Economic Situation Report




10
Internal Debt Instruments

Ministry of Finance
Fixed Rate Instruments in Dollars

Source: BNV. March 6, 2014.





Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




10

Ministerio de Hacienda
Instrumentos tasa fija dlares

!"#$%#& ()*+ ,-./0 12 3456+

Ministerio de Hacienda
Instrumentos tasa fija colones

!"#$%#& ()*+ ,-./0 12 3456+
!"#$%& '()*+& ,)-.+/+)-#&
5785583456
544+419 3+669
3484:8345: 545+;:9 <+559
3;84:8345: 54:+<49 <+569
3:8558345: 543+349 <+3;9
3:84:83451 541+=:9 <+119
3684:8345; 7=+<49 6+3:9
<484:8345= 545+449 6+;79
3;84:83434 71+649 :+:39
5:84183434 55=+:=9 :+6=9
3:84:83433 7=+:49 :+;:9
318558343: 73+<49 :+7=9
3184:8343; 544+;49 :+749
3:84:834<< =7+749 :+7:9
!01 3&4+)(-&
!"#$%& '$()* +,-./& 0-*1/2/-*#&
5784<83456
=+3=9 544+549 :+<69
3184<83456 5=+739 544+;79 6+3=9
3684783456 ;+=49 545+<39 :+<39
3=8458345: =+:59 545+7<9 1+3:9
368418345: 7+119 54<+7:9 1+6<9
3<8478345: 54+:=9 54:+169 1+1=9
3<84<83451 =+;69 543+1:9 ;+<39
3384183451 54+:=9 541+3=9 ;+:69
3=84783451 5<+449 553+=;9 ;+<79
3585383451 1+1;9 7;+<69 ;+;69
3384<8345; ;+:79 77+669 ;+=49
3=8418345; 7+=79 54:+749 ;+=<9
3;8478345; 55+469 54=+=69 =+539
368458345= =+;69 545+=49 =+579
3=84<8345= 55+5<9 547+7:9 =+349
318478345= ;+=39 7=+6=9 =+3<9
3;84<83457 7+349 543+:49 =+:=9
3:84<83434 ;+:79 7<+;:9 =+7:9
3<85383434 =+7;9 77+169 7+469
3784183433 7+6<9 7;+159 7+=:9
3585383433 55+:49 54=+=;9 7+719
3=8418343< 54+539 544+;59 54+449
3=8418343= =+:59 =7+:49 7+=79
35847834<< =+:59 =;+<=9 7+779
!0 3&4+)(-&
Price Bond
Yield
Government $ Ex Rate

Economic Situation Report




11


Ministry of Finance
Fixed Rate Instruments in Colones


Source: BNV. March 6, 2014.

Informe de Coyuntura Econmica




10

Ministerio de Hacienda
Instrumentos tasa fija dlares

!"#$%#& ()*+ ,-./0 12 3456+

Ministerio de Hacienda
Instrumentos tasa fija colones

!"#$%#& ()*+ ,-./0 12 3456+
!"#$%& '()*+& ,)-.+/+)-#&
5785583456
544+419 3+669
3484:8345: 545+;:9 <+559
3;84:8345: 54:+<49 <+569
3:8558345: 543+349 <+3;9
3:84:83451 541+=:9 <+119
3684:8345; 7=+<49 6+3:9
<484:8345= 545+449 6+;79
3;84:83434 71+649 :+:39
5:84183434 55=+:=9 :+6=9
3:84:83433 7=+:49 :+;:9
318558343: 73+<49 :+7=9
3184:8343; 544+;49 :+749
3:84:834<< =7+749 :+7:9
!01 3&4+)(-&
!"#$%& '$()* +,-./& 0-*1/2/-*#&
5784<83456
=+3=9 544+549 :+<69
3184<83456 5=+739 544+;79 6+3=9
3684783456 ;+=49 545+<39 :+<39
3=8458345: =+:59 545+7<9 1+3:9
368418345: 7+119 54<+7:9 1+6<9
3<8478345: 54+:=9 54:+169 1+1=9
3<84<83451 =+;69 543+1:9 ;+<39
3384183451 54+:=9 541+3=9 ;+:69
3=84783451 5<+449 553+=;9 ;+<79
3585383451 1+1;9 7;+<69 ;+;69
3384<8345; ;+:79 77+669 ;+=49
3=8418345; 7+=79 54:+749 ;+=<9
3;8478345; 55+469 54=+=69 =+539
368458345= =+;69 545+=49 =+579
3=84<8345= 55+5<9 547+7:9 =+349
318478345= ;+=39 7=+6=9 =+3<9
3;84<83457 7+349 543+:49 =+:=9
3:84<83434 ;+:79 7<+;:9 =+7:9
3<85383434 =+7;9 77+169 7+469
3784183433 7+6<9 7;+159 7+=:9
3585383433 55+:49 54=+=;9 7+719
3=8418343< 54+539 544+;59 54+449
3=8418343= =+:59 =7+:49 7+=79
35847834<< =+:59 =;+<=9 7+779
!0 3&4+)(-&
Price Bond Yield
Government Ex Rate
Coupon