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Marissa Markovich Futures Project 2nd Hour Ag Finance 11/11/13 Introduction Based on the markets on agweb the daily

price will be watched to determine if the decision to buy or sell was a good choice. Based prices from October 28th I made the decision to sell my May 2014 corn contract because the market was looking as if it would lower since the corn crop did well so far there would be an increase in supply decreasing price at later dates. Choose to sell July 2014 soybeans because of market being down to ensure a better price after looking at trends. July 2014 wheat contract choose to buy because thought the market was low then and would increase within the 2 week. August 2014 feeder cattle and May 2014 lean hogs contracts both choose to sell because after looking at market trends so far it looks as if the price could lower some making the market worse. Analysis The May 2014 corn contract I choose to sell because the market looked like it would lower based on the corn crop success this year so far. Prices were affected by productivity and weather due to a national harvest being down to 3.41 million acres from last years 3.57 acres according to September 2013 Agweb article. Being unsure of the supply of harvest for the year affects cost and possible substitutes that may be needed. Government shrinks the bio fuel mandate due do new government policies. Corn prices dropped which affect producer decisions on what to plant for the next season and maybe competitor prices. The last price on October 28th for corn was $4.58 and the last price on November 15 th was $4.46 for a profit of 12 cents per bushel making 600 dollars on a 5,000 bushel corn contract. The July 2014 soybean contract I choose to sell because the market was down and to ensure good price I wanted to sell on October 28th because the outcome of the market over the past two weeks as fluctuated from lows of $12.19 to a high of $12.68. Soybeans prices are as high as they have been reaching 13 dollars but there is an unsure market to when the price will drop affecting cost of supply. Drought in Argentina is helping U.S. soybean prices because 70% of their crop has been affected and they had large production on paper but for now the world is relying on the U.S. supply. An expectation in soybean oil futures prices is for the value to rise and for the supply to lower but raise price affecting supply. October 28th last soybean price was

$12.43 and the November 15th last was $12.45 losing .02 cents per bushel and loosing $100 on the 5,000 bushel July 2014 soybean contract. July 2014 wheat contract choose to buy because the price seemed as if it was low and would raise so would be able to buy at a higher price later. Brazil has lifted its 10% tariff on wheat that is imported due to a shortage which is helping U.S. prices. The wheat crop is 20% smaller in some places due to drier weather and precipitation changes. Prices dropped lower in December futures contracts, falling 2.1% effecting supply. Prices dropped about 30 cents in the first week due and started to increase during the second week. October 28th last price was $6.97 and November 15th last of $6.55 loosing .42 cents per bushel and loosing 2,100 dollars on a 5,000 bushel July 2014 contract. The feeder cattle contract for August 2014 sold because price was high then and it looked as if it may be lowering within the upcoming weeks. The price of cattle has been staying steady after a large price increase in September. The cost of cattle has been good because of lower grain and corn prices for cattle producers. Some parts of the nation have seen bad weather conditions in drought in past years but during 2013 the conditions have improved. Because of the better conditions analysts are nervous about the increasing retail beef prices and the effect on consumer demand. The cattle business is a good place to be because of the good prices for the next year so for supply aspects of weather, price, and sellers it looks promising. Feeder cattle price on October 28th was $167.425 and on November 15th was down to $166.05 for a loss of $1.375 per pound and a $68,750 loss on 50,000 lbs August 2014 contract. Lean Hogs May 2014 contract sold because price was high and looked that during the next two weeks the price would lower. Prices have been steady for hogs as they have not dropped or rose drastically. Pork production is reduced for last month based on data that showed lower than expected pace of slaughter in October and early November according to the pig site which could affect the price. Last year lower feed prices had a great effect on the price of hogs making them better and this year if the prices for feed stay low the outcome this year could be good. Lean hogs October 28th price was $97.64 and November 15th last price was $97.125 for a loss of .525 cents per pound for a total loss of $21,000 on May 2014 40,000 lbs contract. Out of the five contracts I only gained money on my corn contract in which I made $600. Each of the 4 other contracts including soybeans, wheat, feeder cattle and lean hogs I lost money. The total profit loss was a combination of the five contracts in which I lost 91,350 dollars making no money at all.

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