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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

14 APRIL 17 APRIL 2014

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold rose to its highest price in more than two weeks on Thursday, boosted by a sharp pullback in U.S. equities and follow-through buying a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting revealed its cautious approach in future interest-rate hikes. Gold came uncoupled in the afternoon from U.S. equities, stalling even as the S&P 500 index accelerated losses. The S&P, which fell 2 percent for the day, has given back all its gains to turn negative for the year. The yellow metal largely ignored data signaling a stronger U.S. job market, with the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits tumbling last week to the lowest level in nearly seven years. It changed the dynamic of the gold market because now the fear of Fed raising rates has been pushed back further into the future. On Thursday, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped toward 2.6 percent. Returns from U.S. bonds are closely watched by the gold market, given that the metal pays no interest. Prices in top buyer China slipped back to a discount of about $2 an ounce on London prices on Thursday from a premium in the previous session. Also reflecting weak physical demand, gold stocks sitting in U.S. exchange warehouses are at a 10month high. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a five-week high as U.S. consumer confidence rose in April while gasoline demand grew. Brents premium to WTI shrank. WTIs weekly advance was the biggest this year. Preliminary index of sentiment climbed to 82.6, the highest level since July. Gasoline demand averaged over four weeks jumped to the most in three months April 4, the Energy Information Administration said yesterday. Prices reduced gains as U.S. equities dropped. The Brent-WTI gap contracted as Libya was poised to boost oil shipments. WTI for May delivery rose 34 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $103.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since March 3. The volume of all futures traded was 31 percent above the 100-day average at 3:56 p.m. Prices advanced 2.6 percent this week. Brent for May settlement slid 13 cents to end the session at $107.33 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent gained 0.6 percent this week. The European benchmark crude was at a $3.59 premium to WTI, the narrowest since Sept. 19. Nickel prices rose, capping the longest rally more than three years, as Indonesias ban on ore exports limits supplies, triggering forecasts for a global shortfall. The ban alone is likely to shift the nickel market from structural oversupply to a balanced outcome this year, with sizable deficits probably over coming years. Stronger global growth outlook is likely to drive nickel usage in stainless and non-stainless sectors. The price rose to a 13-month high, while stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange posted the biggest weekly drop since June 2012. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia, the home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the worlds biggest producer of the refined metal, also may threaten shipments. This year, nickel may top $19,000. The price has jumped 25 percent in 2014. Indonesia banned shipments of raw ore in January. On the Comex in New York, copper futures for May delivery fell 0.1 percent to $3.0415 a pound. Earlier, the price reached $3.08, the highest for a most-active contract since March 7. In London, aluminum, lead, zinc and tin dropped, while copper gained 0.2 percent.

Gold extends rally after Fed minutes as stocks tumble.

WTI Oil Rises to Five-Week High on Consumer Sentiment.

Nickel Posts Longest Rally in 42 Months on Supply Concern.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Apr 14 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 10:15pm Apr 15 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:15pm 6:30pm 7:30pm Apr 16 12:30am 5:30am 5:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 8:00pm 9:45pm 10:55pm 11:30pm Apr 17 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

DESCRIPTION
Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Business Inventories m/m FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index Fed Chair Yellen Speaks TIC Long-Term Purchases NAHB Housing Market Index FOMC Member Plosser Speaks FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks FOMC Member Stein Speaks Building Permits Housing Starts Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Crude Oil Inventories Fed Chair Yellen Speaks FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Beige Book Unemployment Claims Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Natural Gas Storage

FORECAST
0.5% 0.8% 0.5%

PREVIOUS
0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

0.1% 0.1% 8.2

0.1% 0.1% 5.6

14.6B 50

7.3B 47

1.00M 0.97M 78.8% -127.5B 0.5%

1.01M 0.91M 78.4% -193.5B 0.6% 4.0M

316K 9.6

300K 9.0 4B

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week traded above 23.6% retracement, found resistance of 38.2% retracement and also closed around it. Now, on higher side if it maintains above 28900 then next resistance may be seen in the range of 29100-29250. On other hand if it sustains at lower levels and trades below 28350 then bearishness may take it towards the support level of 27800.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 28920 for the targets of 2922029500 with stop loss of 28300.

S1
28580

S2
28245

S3
27875

R1
28890

R2
29220

R3
29500

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER showed sideways movement on daily charts and still continuing with higher highs sessions which indicates weakness is still prevailing in it. Now, if it sustain below 42300 then next support will be seen around 40500. On higher side 44000 will act as important resistance level maintaining above which may lead it towards the next resistance level of 45000.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 42300 for targets of 41000-40500, with stop loss of 44000.

PIVOT TABLE S1
42300

S2
40650

S3
38500

R1
44000

R2
45200

R3
46500

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil last week showed upward movement and broke the 23.6% retracement level and closed above the trend line from all time high. If the upward movements continues then it may find resistance in the range of 6450-6550. On other hand if it took reversal from trendline then 6140 will act as major support for it.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 6330 for the target of 6450, with stop loss of 6190.

PIVOT TABLE S1
6200

S2
6040

S3
5900

R1
6330

R2
6460

R3
6585

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper on daily charts witnessed consolidation phase and took resistance of 23.6% retracement but unable to close above its important resistance i.e. 410. Now, if it maintains above 412 then only some bullish movement is expected towards the next resistance level of 420. If it trades below 400 then further bearishness can be seen which may drag it towards support range of392-385.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell on highs, with stop loss of 412 for the targets of 392-385.

S1
399

S2
391.80

S3
386

R1
412

R2
421.50

R3
429

DISCLAIMER

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