2011

1978

2011

2011

2011
critical juncture

2011
2011 9
80 9 25
12011 9

2011 7
89%59.67%
1,100 2

2004
2011

2011 9 30
http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110930/KDZAAO1U0AFBZ.shtml
2

2011 10 10
http://finance.sina.com.cn/leadership/20111010/012310588041.shtml
1

 2004
2011
GDP

2011
critical juncture

increasing return

4
Pierson
self-reinforcing sequences
5

reactive sequences

counterreaction 6

7Mahoney

Douglass North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge:

Cambridge University Press, 1990); Peter Hall, Governing the Economy: The Politics of State
Intervention in Britain and France (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986).
4
Brian Arthur, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy (University of Michigan
Press, 1994).
5
Paul Pierson, Increasing returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics,American Political
Science Review, Vol. 94, No. 2 (June 2000), pp. 251-267.
6
James Mahoney, Path Dependence in Historical Sociology, Theory and Society, Vol. 29, No. 4
(2000), pp. 507-48.
7
Douglass North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 1990).
2

Thelen

11,700

1949 1978
5.59

10

1950

11

James Mahoney, and Kathleen Thelen, A Theory of Gradual Institutional Change,in James
Mahoney and Kathleen Thelen eds., Explaining Institutional Change: Ambiguity, Agency, and Power
( New York: CambridgeUniversity Press, 2010), pp. 1-37.
9
Stephen D. Krasner, Approaches to the State: Alternative Conceptions andHistorical
Dynamics,Comparative Politics, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Jan. 1984), pp. 223-246.; Paul Pierson, Not Just
What, but When: Timing and Sequence in Political Processes,Studies in American Political
Development, Vol. 14, Issue 1 (April 2000), pp. 72-92.
10

8 2001
10-12
11
Yia-Ling Liu, Reform from Below: The Private Economy and Local Politics in the Rural
Industrialization of Wenzhou,China Quarterly, No. 130 (June 1992), pp. 293-316.
3

12
13 1990

14

associational-coordinated market
economy
15

16
17

18

19Kellee Tsai

12

20 1986
21-22

21 1986
24-25

22
1986
28-29
13

6 1986 6
1990

14

1995
1998 1
23-25Yia-Ling Liu, "Reform from Below: The Private Economy and Local
Politics in the Rural Industrialization of Wenzhou," China Quarterly, No.130
June, 1992
, pp.293-316.
Parris Kristen, Local Initiative and National Reform: The Wenzhou Model of Development,China
Quarterly, No. 134 (Jun. 1993), pp. 242-263.

30 4 2000 8

138-1431452004

15

22 2011
12
59-110
16
2012
17

1 2012 1
27-36
18

http://new.china-review.com/sao.asp?sid=264&id=6627
19

2 2004 3
16-20
4


20

2011

2011

2010
11 912.21
303.94
1980

2002

211979
13.21 2002
1,052.35 2010 2,925.04
GDPGDP
GDP

20

1979-2010

Kellee Tsai 2007

2002 12 10
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2002-12/10/content_655555.htm
5

21

45
40
35

30
25
20
15
10

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

GDP 1979-2010

GDP

1979

7.6

13.6

11.5

1995

10.9

16.8

20.9

1980

7.8

16.4

18.5

1996

10.0

12.7

23.0

1981

5.2

11.5

4.9

1997

9.3

11.1

16.3

1982

9.1

11.4

7.1

1998

7.8

10.2

17.3

1983

10.9

8.0

11.5

1999

7.6

10.0

12.2

1984

15.2

21.7

24.7

2000

8.4

11.0

12.7

1985

13.5

21.7

19.2

2001

8.3

10.6

12.3

1986

8.8

12.1

14.1

2002

9.1

12.6

13.1

1987

11.6

11.8

14.0

2003

10.0

14.7

14.8

1988

11.3

11.2

14.8

2004

10.1

14.5

14.1

1989

4.1

-0.6

0.6

2005

11.3

12.8

13.0

1990

3.8

3.9

2.3

2006

12.7

13.9

13.4

1991

9.2

17.8

18.4

2007

14.2

14.7

14.3

1992

14.2

19.0

30.8

2008

9.6

10.1

8.5

1993

14.0

22.0

42.6

2009

9.2

8.9

8.5

1994

13.1

20.0

18.3

2010

10.4

11.9

11.1

3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

1981
477 270
1988 1,602
2010 27,250
11,416 30

1981-2012

1981

500.4

523

477

223.4

286

270

1982

535.3

530

514

270.1

346

298

1983

564.6

551

536

309.8

359

313

1984

652.1

669

605

355.3

446

345

1985

739.1

904

819

397.6

549

447

1986

900.9

1,104

1,020

423.8

609

508

1987

1002.1

1,228

1,176

462.6

725

626

1988

1180.2

1,589

1,602

544.9

902

832

1989

1373.9

1,797

1,895

601.5

1011

924

1990

1510.2

1,932

2,007

686.3

1099

929

1991

1700.6

2,143

2,354

708.6

1211

1,044

1992

2026.6

2,619

3,156

784.0

1359

1,200

1993

2577.4

3,626

4,369

921.6

1746

1,474

1994

3496.2

5,066

5,625

1221.0

2225

2,000

1995

4283.0

6,221

7,507

1577.7

2966

2,801

1996

4838.9

6,956

8,277

1926.1

3463

3,371

1997

5160.3

7,359

9,034

2090.1

3684

3,658

1998

5425.1

7,837

8,968

2162.0

3815

3,833

1999

5854.0

8,428

10,339

2210.3

3948

4,024

2000

6280.0

9,279

12,051

2253.4

4254

4,298

2001

6859.6

10,465

13,200

2366.4

4582

4,683

2002

7702.8

11,716

14,591

2475.6

4940

5,091

2003

8472.2

13,180

16,035

2622.2

5431

5,548

2004

9421.6

14,546

17,727

2936.4

6096

6,202

2005

10493.0

16,294

19,805

3254.9

6660

6,845

2006

11759.5

18,265

21,716

3587.0

7335

7,543

2007

13785.8

20,574

24,002

4140.4

8265

8,591

2008

15780.8

22,727

22,851

4760.6

9258

9,469

2009

17174.7

24,611

24,467

5153.2

10007

10,100

2010

19109.4

27,359

27,250

5919.0

11303

11,416

2000
12.7%2003
2008

2001

2002

2001-2010
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

10
11

22
22

GDP 2004 2 16
http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20040216/0745632469.shtml
GDP
2003
10 25 http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2003-10-25/10211996826.shtml


2004

500 23

500
20%
10%
24
2005
10.84 2005 16
22.6 3.1 25
2005

10 300

26

2004 8 23 http://lib.cet.com.cn/paper/szb_con/97956.html
23

2006 1 9
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2006-01-09/17568816626.shtml
24
2006 5 22
http://newsweek.inewsweek.cn/magazine.php?id=2485
25
2006 5 26
http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/4406884.html
26
10 300
2005 3 3
http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/b/20050303/11401400197.shtml
9

 27

2008
700
10%28

2011

2011
2011

2011 2.5 2008

29

19701980
30
1985
311986
5 23%
72% 32

27

2012 7 10 2012 7 19

2008 10 26
http://www.coolloud.org.tw/node/29046
29
9 2.5
2011/12/24
http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/MAI3/6801719.shtml
30

31

32
60
2011 10 15
http://finance.qq.com/a/20111015/001342.htm
10
28


2008

2010
5 2010 11
23.08% 2010 10 0.25
2010 800
160 470
170
1.5 2
5 33

2011
2011 2011
2011

2011 5
10
1.5 70 9,000
6,500
34
2011

7,000 2011 9
80 35
8,000
10,000 2011 10%-15%
33

2010 12 18
http://finance.qq.com/a/20101218/001727.htm
34
3
2011 6 2
http://finance.qq.com/a/20110602/004256.htm
35

2011 9 30
http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110930/KDZAAO1U0AFBZ.shtml
11

 36
2011 9

3,000 2010
2.72 37

2011 10 12

2015

38
2011 11 22

36
10

7,000

39

2011 11
2012
36

2011 9 8
http://news.hexun.com/2011-09-08/133209826.html
37
http://www.china-center.com/
20
2011 9 23
http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110923/KDZ8S8YHEFDOQ.shtml
38
2011 10 20
http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20111020/061410654647.shtml
39
45 7000
2012 2 24
http://finance.qq.com/a/20120224/000603.htm
12

2011

2008

40
2008
30%

2008 2009

41

42

43

2010

44
40

2012 7 10 2012 7 14 2012 7 15

2012 7 21
41
2012 7 15
42
2012 7 14 2012 7 15
43
2012 7 15
44
2012 7 14
13

2011
45

46

2011

47 48
2011 25
25

2011

2010 60

45
46
47
48

2013 9 26
2013 9 16
2012 7 15
2012 7 19
14

 49

2011 2
2001 2010 34.1%
10 20 50

50%51
2011 1,540.31
66.34%
10 2012
2,110.34 37.01%

2000-2012
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012-

376.65 461.79 562.34 1,006.74 1,205.18 1,386.68 1,460.74 1,684.13 1,980.50 2,291.65 2,753.13 3,100.02 3,722.75

22.60% 21.77% 79.03% 19.71% 15.06% 5.34% 15.29% 17.60% 15.71% 20.14% 12.60% 20.09%

245.27 320.52 393.45 837.59 1,095.67 1,336.30 1,502.77 1,597.54 1,728.24 2,004.22 2,193.28 2392.91 2,901.43

30.68% 22.75% 112.88% 30.81% 21.96% 12.46% 6.31%

182.28 241.04 275.81 448.60

49

507.32 542.11 645.55 737.03 758.44 837.78 925.98 1,540.31 2,110.34

633.70 703.46 800.21 900.01 1,006.69 1,233.41 1,488.26 1,488.27 1,642.31

365.47 416.05 479.75 458.34 525.24 638.69 719.98 804.67 970.73

27.42% 8.87% 160.98% 36.39% 13.84% 15.31% -4.46% 14.59% 21.60% 12.73% 11.76% 20.64%

131.32 145.18 169.03 535.03

21.25%

6.97% 10.66% 147.14% 20.58% 11.01% 13.75% 12.47% 11.85% 22.52% 20.66% 0.00% 10.35%

74.02 94.31 102.68 267.97

-

9.1%

32.24% 14.43% 62.65% 13.09% 6.86% 19.08% 14.17% 2.91% 10.46% 10.53% 66.34% 37.01%

179.65 192.17 212.64 525.53

8.18% 15.97% 9.43%

624.95 676.13 765.75 843.37 915.75 1,055.03 1,245.56 1,426.26 1,722.56

10.56% 16.43% 216.53% 16.81% 8.19% 13.25% 10.14% 8.58% 15.21% 18.06% 14.51% 20.77%

77.41 136.57 174.93 412.19

517.80 507.47 506.95 540.95 586.87 635.16 772.80 862.83 1,126.80

2012
50

2012 6

http://www.daluom.com/read.php?tid-30401.html
51

2011 2 23
http://www.wzsl.gov.cn/system/2011/02/23/010760795.shtml
15

76.42% 28.09% 135.62% 25.62% -2.00% -0.10% 6.71%

42.74 63.18
-

160.42

48.14

98.01

127.87 161.12 218.99 279.64 339.43 400.66 413.84 476.09 570.60

479.03 537.62 623.74 727.64 759.58 834.10 950.24 1,007.81 1,242.56

31.55% 20.45% 172.32% 24.07% 12.23% 16.02% 16.66% 4.39%

43.33 61.64
-

202.71 233.84 273.41 317.00 361.17 415.40 481.80 504.63 566.13

34.40% 26.90% 103.57% 30.47% 26.00% 35.92% 27.70% 21.38% 18.04% 3.29% 15.04% 19.85%

89.48 117.70 141.78 386.10

-

8.23% 21.67% 11.65% 30.59%

47.82% 44.93% 75.21% 26.36% 15.36% 16.92% 15.94% 13.94% 15.01% 15.99% 4.74% 12.19%

28.23 37.94
-

91.56

8.49%

81.09

143.36

9.81% 13.92% 6.06% 23.29%

175.74 198.16 222.17 237.26 248.85 279.19 320.38 358.47 471.98

42.26% 31.57% 76.79% 22.58% 12.76% 12.12% 6.79%

4.88% 12.20% 14.75% 11.89% 31.67%

2010

522011

53
2011

50%
5 1999 2009
10
54

55

52

2012
2012
2013
2013

53
2012
2012

54
41000 2011 5 4
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/2011-05/04/c_121376786.htm
55
2013 9 27
16

2003

2011

2011

2011

2011

17

2011

2011

18


2002 12 10
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2002-12/10/content_655555.htm
2011 9 30
http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110930/KDZAAO1U0AFBZ.shtml
2011 9 8
http://news.hexun.com/2011-09-08/133209826.html
GDP2003 10 25
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2003-10-25/10211996826.shtml
2006 5 22
http://newsweek.inewsweek.cn/magazine.php?id=2485
9 2.5
2011/12/24http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/MAI3/6801719.shtml
2006 1 9
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2006-01-09/17568816626.shtml
2011
2 23 http://www.wzsl.gov.cn/system/2011/02/23/010760795.shtml
2011 10 20
http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20111020/061410654647.shtml

2006 5 26
http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/4406884.html
2012 6
http://www.daluom.com/read.php?tid-30401.html

2008 10 26
http://www.coolloud.org.tw/node/29046
60 2011 10 15
http://finance.qq.com/a/20111015/001342.htm
45 7000
2012 2
24 http://finance.qq.com/a/20120224/000603.htm
2011 10 10
http://finance.sina.com.cn/leadership/20111010/012310588041.shtml
3
2011 6 2
http://finance.qq.com/a/20110602/004256.htm
19

 41000 2011 5
4
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/2011-05/04/c_1213767
86.htm
20 2011 9
23 http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110923/KDZ8S8YHEFDOQ.shtml
2010 12 18
http://finance.qq.com/a/20101218/001727.htm
GDP2004 2 16
http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20040216/0745632469.shtml
2004 8 23
http://lib.cet.com.cn/paper/szb_con/97956.html
10 300 2005 3 3
http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/b/20050303/11401400197.shtml
2000 ~2012

2 2004 3 16-20
2004

1 2012 1 27-36
2000 ~2012
Kellee Tsai 2007

2000 ~2012

30 4 2000 8
138-143
145
2000 ~2012
http://www.china-center.com/
2012
2012
1996 ~2012

20

 1995 1998 1 23-25

8 2001
10-12
1996 ~2012
1990

http://new.china-review.com/sao.asp?sid=264&id=6627
2000 ~2012
2000 ~2012
20 1986 21-22
22 1986 28-29
21 1986 24-25
1996 ~2012

6 1986 6
2000 ~2012
2000 ~2012

22 2011 12 59-110
2013
2013
2000 ~2012
2000 ~2012

Arthur, Brian, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy (University
of Michigan Press, 1994).
Hall, Peter, Governing the Economy: The Politics of State Intervention in Britain and
France (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986).
Krasner, Stephen D., Approaches to the State: Alternative Conceptions andHistorical
Dynamics,Comparative Politics, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Jan. 1984), pp. 223-246.
Kristen, Parris, Local Initiative and National Reform: The Wenzhou Model of
Development,China Quarterly, No. 134 (Jun. 1993), pp. 242-263.
Liu, Yia-Ling, Reform from Below: The Private Economy and Local Politics in the
21

Rural Industrialization of Wenzhou,China Quarterly, No. 130 (June 1992), pp.

293-316.
Mahoney, James, Path Dependence in Historical Sociology, Theory and Society, Vol.
29, No. 4 (2000), pp. 507-48.
Mahoney, James, and Kathleen Thelen, A Theory of Gradual Institutional
Change,in James Mahoney and Kathleen Thelen eds., Explaining Institutional
Change: Ambiguity, Agency, and Power ( New York: CambridgeUniversity Press,
2010), pp. 1-37.
North, Douglass, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990).
Pierson, Paul, Increasing returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of
Politics,American Political Science Review, Vol. 94, No. 2 (June 2000), pp.
251-267.
Pierson, Paul, Not Just What, but When: Timing and Sequence in Political
Processes,Studies in American Political Development, Vol. 14, Issue 1 (April
2000), pp. 72-92.

22