Section 6

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Process Control & Safety Group Institute of Hydrogen Economy Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Dr. Arshad Ahmad Email: arshad@cheme.utm.my
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6.1 Overview of QRA

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What is QRA
! Systematic methodology to assess risks associated any installation
! Taking into consideration all forms of hazards ! Uses design information and historical data to estimate frequency of failure ! Uses modelling software to assess consequence

! Where/when is QRA needed

! CIMAH 1996 part of CIMAH safety report ! EQA 1985 a section under EIA

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Definition

Risk = Severity x Likelihood

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Methodology
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Hazard Identification
! Purpose: to identify plausible hazard conditions ! Methods
! Check-list, Preliminary Hazard Review, HAZID, HAZOP etc. ! Unstructured brainstorming?

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Frequency Analysis
! Sometimes referred to as Hazard Analysis ! Purpose: To estimate the likelihood for a hazard scenario to occur ! Methods
! Event-Tree Analysis ! Fault-Tree Analysis

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Consequence Analysis
! Purpose: To assess the extent of damage
! Typical Hazard
! Toxic Release, Fire and Explosion

! Modeling of hazard scenario

! Toxic Release: Source (Release) Model, Dispersion ! Fire and explosion: Source Model, Fire and Explosion, Heat Dispersion ! Fatality Assessment: Probit Analysis ! Nonfatal Consequence: Skin-burn, Property damage

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Risk Estimation and Evaluation

! Purpose: To assess Risk and Make Safety Judgment ! Methods
! Individual Risk: IRPA, LSIR ! Societal Risk

! Tolerability Criteria

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Risk Management
! Propose: to propose mitigating measure to reduce the potential impact of the hazard and possibly reduce the risk level ! Method
! Safe Work Procedure at every project stages ! Emergency Response Management ! Emergency Response Procedure

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6.2 Risk Estimation

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Two distinct categories of Risies

! Voluntary Risks
! e.g. driving or riding in an automobile, and working in an industrial facility.

! Involuntary Risks
! e.g. exposure to lighting, disease, typhoons and persons in residential or recreational areas near the industrial facilities.

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Examples of risks associated with activities

Voluntary Risk fatalities (death) per person per yr (x106) 5000 2000 1200 170 40 20 Involuntary Risk fatalities (death) per person per yr (x106) 200 80 60 50 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.02

Activity Smoking (20 cigarettes/day) Motor cycling Car racing Car driving Rock climbing Football

Activity Influenza Leukemia Run over by road vehicle (UK) Run over by road vehicle (USA) Floods (USA) Storms (USA) Lightning (USA) Falling aircraft (USA) Falling aircraft (UK)

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Individual Risk
! Individual risk is defined formally (by Institution of Chemical Engineering, UK) as the frequency at which an individual may be expected to sustain a given level of harm from the realization of specified hazards. It is usually taken to be the risk of death, and usually expressed as a risk per year. ! The term individual may be a member of a certain group of workers on a facility, or a member of the public, or anything as defined by the QRA.

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Location Specific Individual Risk

IRx ,y ,i = pi fi
! IRx,y,i is the individual risk at location (x,y) due to event i, ! pi is the probability of fatality due to incident i at location (x,y). This is normally determined by FTA ! fi is the frequency of incident outcome case i, (per year). This value can be determined using Probit Analysis When there are more than one release events, the cumulative risk at location (x,y) is given by equation

IRx ,y = ! IRx ,y ,i
i =1
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Average Individual Risk / Individual Risk Per Annum

! The average individual risk is the average of all individual risk estimates over a defined or exposed population. This is useful for example in estimating the average risk of workers in reference with existing population. Average individual risk over exposed population is given by CCPS (1989) as

IRAV =

IRx y Px y ! x y
, , ,

Px y ! x y
, ,

Here, IRAV is the average individual risk in the exposed population (probability of fatality per year) and P x, y is the number of people at location x, y
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Example: LSIR for Proposed Chemical Plant

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Societal Risk
! Societal risk measures the risk to a group of people. It is an estimation of risk in term of both the potential size and likelihood of incidents with multiple consequences. ! The risk can be represented by Frequency-Number (F-N) Curve.

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Determination of Societal Risk

! To calculate the number of fatalities resulting from each incident outcome case, the following equation is used:

Ni = ! Px ,y pf ,i
x ,y

Here, Ni is number of fatalities resulting from Incident Outcome case i, pf,i is the probability of fatality and Px,y is the number of population. ! The cumulative frequency is then calculated using the following equation:

FN = ! Fi
Here, FN is the frequency of all incident outcome cases affecting N or more people, per year and Fi= is the frequency of incident outcome caseMKH1223 i peryear. Process Safety & loss Prevention
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Example: The corresponding Societal Risk

Frequency (F) one or more Fatalities (per year)
1x10-3

1x10-4

Intolerable Region

1x10-5

ALARP Region Broadly Acceptable Region

1 10 100 1000 10000

1x10-6

1x10-7

Fatalities (N)
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6.3 Tolerability Criteria

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Tolerable Risk
! Risk cannot be eliminated entirely. ! Every chemical process has a certain amount of risk associated with it. ! At some point in the design stage someone needs to decide if the risks are tolerable". ! One tolerability criteria in the UK is "as low as reasonable practicable" (ALARP) concept formalized in 1974 by United Kingdom Health and Safety at Work Act. ! Serious consideration must be made to decide on tolerability based on ALARP
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ALARP Criteria
INTOLERABLE LEVEL (Risk cannot be justified on any ground) TOLERABLE only if risk reduction is impracticable or if its cost is grossly disproportionate to the improvement gained TOLERABLE if cost of reduction would exceed the improvement gained BROADLY ACCEPTABLE REGION

THE ALARP REGION (Risk is undertaken if benefited is desired)

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Tolerability Criteria in Malaysia

! LSIR is used as a measure of individual risk
! This means that the risk is not influenced by population

! The Upper limits for LSIR are as follows

! For residential receptors : 1 X 10-6 fatality per year ! For industrial receptors : 1 X 10-5 fatality per year ! For workers on site: Voluntary risk (1 X 10-3 fatality per year). This is considered maximum in UK for offshore industry.

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Tolerability Criteria (UK)

! This framework is represented as a three-tier system as shown in figure. It consists of several elements : (1) Upper-bound on individual (and possibly, societal) risk levels, beyond which risks unacceptable. In UK, the guideline and criteria are spelled out in R2P2 (reducing Risk Protecting People) document. (refer to www.

hse.gov.uk)
(2) Lower-bound on individual (and possibly, societal) risk levels, below which risks are deemed not to warrant regulatory concern. (3) intermediate region between (1) and (2) above, where further individual and societal risk reductions are required to achieve a level deemed "as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)".
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Tolerability Criteria (UK)

Dotted line general public Solid line workers

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Tolerability criteria (Netherland)

1.! Risk to public cannot be more than 1X 10-6 fpy 2.! Fatality cannot be more than 10 at risk 1X 10-5 fpy 3.! Slope -2

General public only

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Tolerability Criteria (Australia)

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Tolerability Criteria (Canada)

Major industrial accident council of Canada (MIACC) recommends the above Individual risks level
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END OF SECTION 6

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