Ch3 Water Web

Managing water resources under a changing climate
Background paper for World Bank Report: Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries
Authorship Lead Author: Hamed Assaf American University Beirut Contributing Authors: Raoudha Gafrej University of Tunis
A working outline of this paper can be found in Annex 2
Disclaimer
This text is not for citation. The statements, views, interpretations and findings expressed in this draft and in all contents herein are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
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TABLE OF C ONTENTS
1. Introduction and background ................................................................................................................ 5 1.1. 1.2. 2. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 5 Overview of the socio-economic, land and water resources conditions in the Arab region ..... 7
Projected impacts of climate change on water resources in the Arab region ...................................... 11 2.1. 2.2. Brief overview of the regions climate and water resources ................................................... 11 Projected impacts of climate change on hydrometeorological conditions .............................. 13
3.
Main challenges to managing water resources under changing climate ............................................. 20 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. 3.5. 3.6. 3.7. 3.8. 3.9. 3.10. 3.11. Scarcity, high variability and uneven distribution of water resources .................................... 21 Population growth and urbanization ....................................................................................... 26 High agricultural water use ..................................................................................................... 27 Depletion of strategic groundwater reserves ........................................................................... 28 High dependency on shared water resources .......................................................................... 29 Increasing loss of life and damages from extreme flooding events ........................................ 31 Deteriorating water quality conditions .................................................................................... 32 Loss of water ecosystem services ........................................................................................... 32 Water governance ................................................................................................................... 33 Weak information base and inadequate research and development capacity ..................... 33 public awareness of water and climate change issues ......................................................... 33
4.
Adaptation options .............................................................................................................................. 34 4.1. 4.2. 4.2.1. 4.2.2. 4.2.3. 4.2.4. 4.2.5. 4.2.6. Integrated water resources management ................................................................................. 36 Supply side management ........................................................................................................ 37 Storage and conveyance ...................................................................................................... 37 Integrated surface and groundwater storage strategy .......................................................... 38 Management of groundwater resources .............................................................................. 39 Protection of water resources .............................................................................................. 40 Wastewater treatment and reuse.......................................................................................... 41 Desalination ........................................................................................................................ 43
Managing water resources under a changing climate 4.3. 4.3.1. 4.3.2. 4.3.3. 4.3.4. 4.3.5. 4.4. 4.4.1. 4.4.2. 4.4.3. 4.5. 4.5.1. 4.5.2. 4.5.3. 4.5.4. 5.
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Demand side Management ...................................................................................................... 45 Water pricing....................................................................................................................... 46 Reducing unaccounted for water in distribution network ................................................... 48 Water reallocation ............................................................................................................... 49 Water trading /markets ........................................................................................................ 49 Raising public awareness .................................................................................................... 50 Other adaptation issues in the water sector ............................................................................. 50 Water governance ............................................................................................................... 50 Disaster risk management ................................................................................................... 51 Cooperative management of shared water resources .......................................................... 53 Adaptation in non-water sectors.............................................................................................. 54 Agricultural policies ............................................................................................................ 55 Energy pricing policies ....................................................................................................... 56 Food security policies ......................................................................................................... 57 Regional economic integration ........................................................................................... 58
Policy Options and key messages ....................................................................................................... 59 5.1. 5.2. 5.3. 5.4. 5.5. 5.6. 5.7. 5.8. 5.9. 5.10. 5.11. 5.12. Uphold the IWRM principles .................................................................................................. 59 Integrate water management across different sectors ............................................................. 60 Develop storage and conveyance capacity .............................................................................. 60 Improve water efficiency across different sectors................................................................... 60 Diversify economy away from water intensive sectors .......................................................... 61 Reform the agricultural sector................................................................................................. 61 Improve water governance ...................................................................................................... 61 Invest in research and development, monitoring and information management .................... 61 Pursue cooperation on managing shared water resources ....................................................... 62 Protect water resources and rehabilitate water ecosystem services .................................... 62 Achieve food security through diversification of options ................................................... 62 Enhance regional economic integration .............................................................................. 63
6.
Boxes................................................................................................................................................... 63 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. Is water substitutable? ............................................................................................................. 63 Consuming vs. using water ..................................................................................................... 64 A caveat: improving irrigation efficiency may intensify water scarcity ................................. 65
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Water marginal cost curves ..................................................................................................... 65
References ........................................................................................................................................... 72 Annex .................................................................................................................................................. 78 8.1. Annex 1: Glossary of Terms ................................................................................................... 78
Adaptation ........................................................................................................................................... 78 IWRM ................................................................................................................................................. 78 Risk ..................................................................................................................................................... 78 Water Management ............................................................................................................................. 78 8.2. Annex 2: Preliminary outline of Chapter ................................................................................ 79
L IST OF F IGURES
Figure 1. Aridity Zoning - Source (World Bank (2007)). ........................................................................... 13 Figure 2. Annual mean changes in hydrometeorological variables for the period 20802099 relative to 19801999 based on simulation results from 15 GCMs for the GHG emissions scenario A1B. Stippled areas indicate those where at least 80% of the GCMs agree in the direction of change (source: Bates et al. 2008.) .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 3. Global projections of precipitation intensity and dry days (annual maximum number of consecutive dry days) (Source: Bates et al. 2008) ...................................................................................... 15 Figure 4. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by World Bank (2011). .................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 5. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by World Bank (2011). .................................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 6. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by World Bank (2011). .................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 7. Characteristics of precipitation worldwide. (source: World Bank (2007)).................................. 22 Figure 8. Yearly inflows to Lake Qaraoun, Lebanon (source: Assaf and Saadeh (2008)). ........................ 23 Figure 9. Components of the full cost of water (source: Agarwal et al. (2000)) ........................................ 47 Figure 10. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011)). ........... 67 Figure 11. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011)). ........... 68 Figure 12. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011)). ........... 69 Figure 13. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011)). ........... 70 Figure 14. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011)). ........... 71
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1. I NTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Section summary: This section sets the stage by discussing the unique situation of the Arab region not only as currently the globally most water deficient but also where water supplies dwindling as a result of climatic changes, deterioration in quality and competition from upstream countries are lacking in meeting growing demand fueled by explosive growth in population, consumption per capita and irrigation requirements.
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1.1. INTRODUCTION
Water, particularly its scarcity, has been a central issue in the MENA region since the dawn of civilization. In fact, many anthropologists believe that human civilization first emerged in this part of the world as an adaptation to the regions desiccation which started at the onset of the Holocene few thousand years ago. Faced with long rainless summers and short rainy winters early inhabitants sought to settle near perennial springs (e.g. in Damascus and Jericho) where they could secure a steady supply of food and shelter by domesticating plants and animals which heralded the agricultural revolution. As small settlements amalgamated into larger towns, new empires sought to regulate and secure access of water for their subjects. Across the region, remnants of great water infrastructure are a testimony to human ingenuity and capacity to adapt to harsh natural conditions characterized by severe droughts and marked seasonality. In modern times, many Arab countries pursued expansive socio-economic development policies that relied heavily on developing their limited water resources. Over the past few decades most of the main water resources in the majority of Arab countries have been fully utilized. The region has the highest storage capacity per m3 worldwide (World Bank (2007)). Despite this significant investment in water infrastructure, water supplies have failed to keep pace with the exponential growth of demand fueled by dramatic growth in population and improving living standards. Allan (1997) argued that most Arab countries has run out of water in 1970s to produce their food and relied on the global food market to meet the shortfall in food requirements. In many Arab countries, the widening gap between supply and demand has been bridged unsustainably by
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mining renewable aquifers and depleting fossil groundwater. Substantial water resources are being lost to relentless pollution by domestic and industrial waste. With little prospect of securing additional economically feasible supplies, water scarcity is turning into a major crisis that threatens the socio-economic development of Arab countries, especially those with weak financial resources. The fact that many Arab countries derive the bulk of their supplies from water resources shared by other nations makes water a politically contentious issue that may strain relations with neighbors or even lead to armed conflict. This gloomy state of water in the Arab region looks drastically bleaker when considering that most climatic projections show the Arab region as a much drier place in the coming decades as a consequence of climate change (Bates et al. (2008), NOAA (2011)). Water scarcity is a complex problem that involves a multitude of intertwined socio-economic, political and environmental issues. Water is an essential element in the maintenance of all forms of life. In semi-arid regions over 80% of water supply is used in agriculture to produce food and to sustain the livelihood of a sizable share of the population in developing countries. Good water services are a key factor in supporting public health and maintaining high living standards. Water is an important input into a wide range of industries including energy generation, textile and food processing. Under conditions of abundance water takes on a secondary role as a limiting factor of socio-economic development. However scarcity intensifies competition and increase potential of conflict among different users making it necessary to take on a more holistic approach to manage water resources. Isolated adaptation initiatives may benefit one sector or a region at the expense of another. For example, initiatives to improve agricultural productive efficiency may encourage expansion of agricultural consumption at the expense of the more productive domestic and industrial sectors. Water storage is widely considered an effective measure in mitigating hydrometeorological variability. Yet, in absence of an integrated approach to manage shared water resources these measures may increase the vulnerability of other users of these resources. Despite their common historical background and cultural and geopolitical ties, Arab countries have different political, socio-economic, and geophysical conditions that have distinctly shaped their water development past, that are defining their current vulnerabilities and capacities to adapt to water scarcity, and will largely shape their future adaptation strategies. Countries with high water scarcity are not necessarily the most vulnerable or worst off and vice versa. For
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example, despite extreme water scarcity, the Gulf counties have managed to develop adequate water supplies and services albeit unsustainably - largely due to their wealth and access to seawater for desalination. Whereas least developing countries such as Sudan with relatively ample water resources are suffering from frequent and widespread water shortages and are highly vulnerable not only to droughts but to flooding. The nature of water scarcity and how it interacts with socio-economic development is an important factor in drafting policies and strategies to address water scarcity. Countries with high dependency on agriculture require a different of set of solution to those which are highly urbanized or more industrialized. This chapter addresses how Arab countries can respond to the impending impacts of climate change on their water resources and consequently on the overall socio-economic development. We adopt an adaptation framework hinged on three main elements. We first start by identifying the main challenges, and opportunities, that arise from the current water resources conditions and those projected to prevail under the impact of climate change. We then present a wide range of alternative solutions and measures to address these challenges with emphasis on how Arab countries are already responding to these challenges. The proposed solutions utilize recent state of the knowledge and practice in water resources management and climate change adaptation, and leverage existing regional experience and knowledge. We lastly present a set of policy options based on explored adaptation options. A central theme in this adaption framework is the emphasis on the uniqueness of water, socio-economic and environmental conditions of each Arab country and the necessity of taking this into consideration when designing adaptation policies.
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1.2. OVERVIEW OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC, LAND AND WATER RESOURCES CONDITIONS IN THE ARAB REGION
To set the stage for discussing challenges and potential water climate change adaptation solutions and strategies, it is necessary to provide an overview of the various socio-economic, and water resources conditions in the region. Several variables and indicators representing these conditions are presented in Table 1, Table 2 and Table 3 which will be referred to throughout the chapter. The information is mostly extracted from the FAO Aquastat database (AQUASTAT 2011) and are dated 2008 unless otherwise noted.
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Arab countries vary in their financial, demographic and water resources conditions. Yet, all Arab countries are experiencing high growth in population driving most of these countries below the water poverty levels. The least developing countries Mauritania, Sudan, Yemen, Comoros, Djibouti and Somalia - with GDP per Capita less than 2,200 $ have a significant share of their population engaged in agriculture. With the exception of Djibouti, agriculture contributes significantly to these countries GDPs. It is noteworthy that while over 75 % of the economically active population in Djibouti is in the agriculture sector, 87% of the population is reported as urban, which may indicate differences among countries on how communities are classified. Agriculture in Djibouti contributes less than 4% of the GPD which is much lower than other least developing countries. Farmers in the least developing countries are dependent on subsistence rainfed agriculture making them highly vulnerable to rainfall variability and droughts. Somalia is currently undergoing severe drought that have already caused wide spread malnutrition that may escalate to a mass starvation. Egypt, Syria and Iraq rely extensively on shared water resources. They have developed extensive irrigation and water supply infrastructure which support sizable farming communities. These countries face great risk from unilateral water supply development in upstream countries. The relatively large agricultural sectors in the downstream countries are particularly vulnerable considering their near total dependency on irrigation. The extremely water scarce GCC countries have opted to meet rising demand through desalination. Saudi Arabia total withdrawal of 23.67 BCM dwarfs its combined desalination capacity of 1.033 BCM and exploitable renewable water resources (2.4 BMC). The shortfall is met through extensive abstraction of fossil water mainly to meet irrigation demands. Libya has limited desalination capacity in comparison to the GCC countries. This is possibly an outcome of an overall strategy to reduce dependency on desalination in favor of tapping the vast Nubian sandstone and Western Sahara fossil aquifers via the Great Man-Made River system (Gijsbers and Loucks 1999). Few Arab countries have relatively abundant internal water resources. Lebanon and Morocco have benefited from favorable topography where coastal mountain ranges intercept moisture laden weather systems to produce heavy winter precipitation. Both countries have renewable
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water resources hovering around 1000 m3 per capita. Both countries receive virtually no water from outside their boundaries which reduces constraints over development of water resources. However Lebanon is an upstream country to several important international Rivers particularly Hasbani and ElAsi Rivers. An agreement has been reached on AlAsi, but the development on Hasbani River a major tributary to the Jordan River - is tightly connected to the elusive peace in the region. Jordan and to a lesser extent Tunisia face daunting water scarcity issues yet have modest financial resources to pursue costly water supply development strategies. Both countries have been at the frontier of adopting more sustainable water management options such as demand management, water reuse and reallocation from low value to high value water uses.
Table 1. Socio-economic variables
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Table 2. Water resources
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Table 3. Water withdrawals
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2. P ROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER

RESOURCES IN THE
A RAB REGION
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Section summary: This section provides an overview of the projected climate change impact on water resources based on current assessment studies conducted by regional and international researchers.
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2.1. BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONS CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES

The Arab region stretches across several time zones and extends from equatorial regions to mid latitudes. The bulk of the region lies within the Horse latitude characterized by its aridity as global climate circulations drive moisture away to the low and high latitudinal regions. These phenomena are responsible for the formation of the vast Sahara and Arabian deserts. Prior to their desiccation several thousand years ago, these deserts received substantial precipitation that had percolated down deep layers to form vast fossil aquifers. Despite its intrinsic aridity the region receives substantial runoff from neighboring regions. The Taurus and Zorros mountains that bound the region in the North East captures moisture from prevailing southwesterly winds to precipitate as snow or rainfall and flow down tributaries of the Euphrates and Tigris which brings water to an otherwise very arid Mesopotamia. Similarly the Ethiopian and Equatorial Highlands receive substantial amount of rainfall and form headwaters of the Nile basin, which flow thousands of kilometers south through savanna areas and barren deserts to arrive at the Egyptian delta. Egypt would have been a barren desert without the Nile. Parts of the North African and Eastern Mediterranean coasts are separated from the arid interiors by mountain ranges that capture the Westerlies to feed into highly seasonal streams that sustain sizable agriculture in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon and Syria. A similar situation exists in the southwest of the Arabian Peninsula (Southwestern Saudi Arabia and Yemen) where high mountains provide relatively humid conditions. The rest of Arabia especially along the Gulf coast is virtually rainless where very arid conditions persist. Deep in the Sahara and Arabian
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Deserts several oases spring out creating microclimatic conditions where limited agriculture could be practiced. Although the aridity of the region is primarily driven by low precipitation levels, high evapotranspiration rates greatly reduce the amount of water that turn into surface runoff or percolate through the soil to recharge aquifers. For example it is estimated that in Jordan over 90% of the rain evaporates leaving a fraction to recharge aquifers and feed surface runoff (ESCWA 2005). The above portrays a region that is generally low in water resources yet at varying degress across the region. The relatively more reliable runoff in the major rivers has allowed more stable agriculture and settlement. Regions with less reliable resource relied on rainfed agriculture which is highly vulnerable to climatic changes. The more arid regions were only capable of sustaining pastoralists who are acutely vulnerable to climatic variability.
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Figure 1. Aridity Zoning - Source (World Bank (2007)).
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2.2. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

Projections of climate change impacts are determined based on simulations by highly sophisticated computer programs named general circulation models (GCMs). The GCMs are designed to model the global climate and determine how it may change under potential scenarios of green house gas emissions. Due to their coarse spatial resolution and inability to capture low order processes such as cloud formation and the effect of sharp topographic variations the GCMs are only suitable to assess the general characteristics of potential changes. The performance of GCMs can be improved using downscaling to better represent regional and local conditions. Downscaling can be either statistical based on meteorological ground measurements or dynamic based on regional climate models that uses outputs from GCMs to provide more detailed atmospheric simulation for specific regions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indentifies the North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean (MENA) region as the most severely impacted by climate change in terms of accentuation of an already severe water scarcity (Parry et al. 2007). Most GCMs project that the MENA region will undergo significant reduction in precipitation levels and increases in temperatures that will increase evapotranspiration rates. The net effect would be a severe reduction in river runoffs and soil moisture levels as shown in Figure 2. The figure shows changes in annual means of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and evaporation between the periods 2080-2099 and 1980-1999 as projected by 15 of the most advanced GCMs (Bates et al. 2008). These simulations were run for the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) midway A1B GHG emission storyline. What makes these results quite significant is that 80% of the GCMs agree on the direction of the change in the region. Changes in precipitation intensity and dry days measured by the maximum number of consecutive dry days for the periods 20802099 and 1980-1999 are shown in Figure 3.
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Figure 2. Annual mean changes in hydrometeorological variables for the period 20802099 relative to 19801999 based on simulation results from 15 GCMs for the GHG emissions scenario A1B. Stippled areas indicate those where at least 80% of the GCMs agree in the direction of change (source: Bates et al. 2008.)
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Managing water resources under a changing climate Precipitation intensity Dry days
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Figure 3. Global projections of precipitation intensity and dry days (annual maximum number of consecutive dry days) (Source: Bates et al. 2008)
Climate changes projections clearly show stark differences in the impacts across the region. While runoff in North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean including the headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris are expected to drop by up to 50%, southern Arabia and East Africa including the headwaters of the Nile will experience increases in runoff by up to 50%. Consequently, climate change will reduce water supplies in the northern and western parts of the Arab region and increase those of Egypt and the southern part of the Arab world. The World Bank is finalizing a study to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the MENA region and identify options to manage these resources under future conditions of higher water demands (World Bank 2011). The study involves first assessing potential spatiotemporal distributions of surface and groundwater resources in the region over the next 4 decades based on output from 9 GCMS for the A1B SRES scenario. This was conducted through downscaling output from these GCMs onto a 10kmx10km grid covering the Arab region and the headwater areas of the Tigris/Euphrates and Niles Rivers. A distributed hydrological model, PCR-GLOBWB, processed the downscaled GCM output and reference data to simulate runoff, groundwater and soil moisture taking into account vegetation cover. Scenarios from the hydrological model were then run through a water resources planning model, WEAP, to determine corresponding scenarios of water municipal, industrial and agricultural demands. To assess the economic efficiency of alternative adaptation options, marginal cost curves of water resources development were calculated for each country as presented in a later section.
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Simulation results from the aforementioned World Bank study are presented in Table 4 and Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6. The results show that the majority of Arab countries are already experiencing water deficits. By midcentury all Arab countries will face serious water deficits as demand and supply continue to diverge. The situation will be particularly troublesome to countries such as Jordan, Yemen and West bank and Gaza which are not financially endowed to procure additional expensive water supplies.
Table 4. Current and projected water demands and supplies for Arab countries as estimated by World Bank (2011).
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Figure 4. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by World Bank (2011).
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Evans (2009) analyzed the impact of climate change on an area covering the Levant, Northern Arabia, Turkey and Iran using simulation results from 18 GCMs under the SRES A2 emissions scenarios which represents a high emission pathway. His analysis shows that most of the region, particularly its northern part in Turkey, will become warmer and undergo significant reduction in
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precipitations. The 200 mm isohyet a threshold of viable rainfed agriculture will move northward as climate warm. By mid century, 8,500 km2 of rainfed agricultural land will be lost. By end of century, the 200 mm isohyet is projected to move northward by about 75 km resulting in the loss of 170,000 km2 of rainfed agricultural land over an area covering Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Evans has also indicated that the dry season will grow longer by about 2 months reducing the grazing rangelands in Iraq and Syria and necessitating the reduction of herd sizes or increasing water requirements and imports of feedstuff.
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3. M AIN CHALLENGES TO MA NAGING WATER RESOURCES

UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE
Section summary: This section discusses the main challenges facing the Arab countries in managing their water resources and how these challenges could be exacerbated by climatic changes. Water is a key ingredient in the socio-economic development of any nation. This is particularly true in the Arab region, where a multitude of issues seriously challenge and threatens socioeconomic development and growth potential. Scarcity, high variability and uneven distribution of water resources in the region are severe natural constraints to meeting the high and exponentially growing demand fueled not only by booming domestic and industrial sectors, but also by an agriculture sector which uses over 80% of the total water withdrawals. Agriculture is not only the single largest employer in many Arab countries (see Table 1), but it also produces a significant share of food requirements. To manage growing deficits in water balance, many countries have unsustainably tapped freshwater aquifers and seriously depleted strategic fossil water stocks. Pressure has also been mounting from upstream countries which have started to develop water resources that for millennia sustained life in the more populace regions of the Arab region. Rapid population growth, urbanization and industrialization have contributed to major pollution of vital water resources including major streams and strategic aquifers. Risk of flooding has also increased recently due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme events,
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poor urban planning and inadequate preparedness. Water governance is a major area of concern due to lack of accountability and weak institutional capacity. This section discusses these challenges and how they could be exacerbated under changing climatic conditions.
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3.1. SCARCITY, HIGH VARIABILITY AND UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF WATER RESOURCES

Water resources management aims at securing supplies to meet demands. This task requires matching demand not only in quantity and quality, but also in location and timing. Water demand in the Arab region is already surpassing supply and rising rapidly, is generally concentrated in large urban areas, and in the case of agriculture is mostly required during the drier time of the year. In contrast water resources are scarce, highly variable, unevenly distributed and seasonally out of phase with demand. The scale and nature of these challenges and the how they will be influenced by climate change vary considerably across the region. As discussed earlier, the Arab region is characterized by a lopsided topographical and climatic conditions with the bulk of the region being very arid flanked by more humid mountainous and coastal plains. Consequently, precipitation levels are mostly low yet highly variable in time and location. Based on calculations made by the World Bank (2007) the region stands out as the one with exceptionally unfavorable precipitation conditions of low intensity and high variability. The results of these calculations are shown in Figure 7, with the horizontal axis representing the 1961-90 normalized average of precipitation and the vertical axis depicting the corresponding normalized variability index. The majority of the Arab countries are concentrated in the upper left quadrant indicating that they have the least favorable combination of lowest level of precipitation and highest level of variability among the 289 countries included in the study.
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Figure 7. Characteristics of precipitation worldwide. (source: World Bank (2007))
The ramifications of these conditions vary across the region. In countries where water resources are derived from precipitations with levels higher than the regional average, water supplies are sizable yet highly variable and susceptible to frequent droughts. Most of these countries are situated in North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) and Eastern Mediterranean (Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan and the Syrian coast), where precipitation levels were historically adequate to support demand. These countries are facing serious challenges in meeting current demand given high variability of water resources. For example, yearly inflows to Qaraoun Lake which drains the Litani River - the largest and most significant water resource in Lebanon - display extreme variability with maximum flow more than order of magnitude higher than minimum flow (see Figure 8). The great fluctuations in runoff across North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean are strongly linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) global teleconnection pattern which dominates the climate of the region. A stronger NAO anomaly shifts the moisture bearing Westerlies wind system to the North depriving the region of substantial amount of rainfall, and vice versa. This association has been linked to the devastating droughts in the region in the mid
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1980s to 1990s. During this period, dams in Morocco did not fill beyond half of their maximum capacity (World Bank 2007). Climate change is expected to strengthen NAO and consequently increase the frequency of lower precipitations (Cullen et al. 2002).
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Figure 8. Yearly inflows to Lake Qaraoun, Lebanon (source: Assaf and Saadeh (2008)).
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Water resources in the riparian countries of Egypt, Iraq and Syria are mainly derived from very large catchments in the more humid regions to the south and north of the Arab region. These regions have significant precipitation with more consistent patterns. For example, Turkey the main headwater of Euphrates and Tigris has much higher precipitation and less variability than neighboring Arab countries as indicated in Figure 7. A similar situation exists in the Nile Basin, where the Nile River is fed by the Monsoon dominated Ethiopian highlands and the equatorial Lake Victoria. The discharge from the Ethiopian Highlands peaks at a different period July to September than runoff from Lake Victoria which has two peak periods a long one in March to May and a less intense one from October to December (Conway 2005). These out-of-phase patterns have to a large extent stabilized runoff patterns on a short-term basis. Prior to the construction of Aswan High dam, Egypt however was exposed to several devastating flooding
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events and droughts. The dam has drastically reduced multi-year fluctuations, but was drawn down to alarmingly low levels as a severe drought extended unprecedented in record - over the years 1978-1987. The drought was mainly attributed to a drastic reduction in precipitation over the Ethiopian Highlands associated with an El Nio event (Conway 2005). Seasonal and multi-year variability have been managed on the Nile, Euphrates and Tigris through extensive development of storage and conveyance. However, more pressing issues are related to sharing water resources and management of multi-decadal droughts, which will be addressed in a later section. Climate change is projected to have different, and almost opposite, impacts on the Nile and Euphrates-Tigris basins. The former is mainly influenced by the Monsoon system which will gain strength in a warmer world. The precipitation over the latter are highly influenced by the NAO which will lead to drier conditions as a result of climate change (Cullen and deMenocal, 2000) similar to the situation in North Africa and the southern part of Eastern Mediterranean. In the more extreme arid regions in the Gulf countries and Libya precipitation levels are very low and extremely variable. The extreme water scarcity in these countries has until modern times suppressed growth in population and limited human activities to pastoralism and subsistence agriculture in oasis and coastal regions with access to springs. However, the discovery of oil resources has resulted in dramatic increases in population and water demands which have dramatically outstripped those supplied by natural renewable resources. This sharp water imbalance was managed through desalination in most countries with excessive reliance on fossil water in Saudi Arabia and Libya. Climate change is not expected to greatly impact the natural water balance in these countries. It is however expected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall outbursts that could create extensive damage and loss of life similar to those experienced recently in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia (Assaf 2010). The southern part of the Arabian Peninsula is however more humid than its northern and middle counterparts. In Yemen, relatively more abundant natural water supplies in the order of 2.1 km3 per year (Table 2) have however been outstripped by a relatively large population that is growing at one of the highest global rates reaching 23 million people in 2008 (Table 1). In comparison, Yemens eastern neighbor, Oman, with 1.4 km3 per year of renewable water resources is in much
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better water balance conditions given its much smaller population of only 2.8 millions. Being in the domain of the Monsoon system, the southern part of Arabia is expected to receive more precipitation as global climate continues to warm. This however is projected to be in the form of more severe rainfall events similar to those that have hit Oman recently. Water scarcity and variability will possibly be more felt, particularly in human suffering, hunger and potentially famine, in the least developing Arab countries that include Mauritania, Sudan, Somalia, Comoros, Djibouti and Yemen where most of the economically active population are engaged in agriculture (see Table 1). Many are dependent on pastoralism and subsistence rainfed farming making them highly vulnerable to rainfall variability. The recent and ongoing drought in Eastern Africa has taken a great toll on the rural populations who not only suffer from loss of income and livestock, but also chronic hunger that could develop into wide scale famine. Droughts have also greatly impacted other Arab countries particularly Syria and Algeria, where rainfed agriculture is widely prevalent. In Syria, the wheat-producing North East was ravaged by a three year drought that has completely drained the Khabur River. Although farmers initially adapted by tapping shallow aquifers, the continuation of the drought had led them to significantly draw down groundwater levels. Shortly afterwards farmers in the hundreds of thousands had to abandon their villages looking for livelihood in the main interior cities and in neighboring Arab countries. As climate continues to change, precipitation and consequently droughts and floods are expected to change in their frequency, intensity and distribution. This change in pattern violates the hypothesis of stationarity where statistical characteristics are assumed fixed - which water planners and mangers apply conveniently in the design and operation of water resources systems. This changing hydrological variability has already resulted in substantial overdesign of and subsequent losses in productivity and efficiency of a large number of water infrastructures in North Africa (World Bank 2007). A recent policy document in the US has identified hydrological nonstationarity as a great challenge to water resources planners in the US (Brekke et al. 2009).
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379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406
3.2. POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION

One of the pressing challenges to socio-economic development in the Arab region is the rapid growth in population and great improvement in living standards that have strained resources particularly water resources. Although fertility rates have subsided over the past two decades (Dyer 2008), the populations in some countries particularly the least developing ones are still expanding at one of the highest rates in the world. These dramatic increases in population have driven renewable water resources per capita well below the absolute water scarcity level of 500 m3/capita in most Arab countries; with only few countries above the chronic water scarcity level of 1000 m3/capita (see Table 2). This has been compounded by an increased consumption per capita driven by improved living standards. This water imbalance is expected to deteriorate further by climate change induced decline in natural water supplies. The growth in population has also increased requirement for food and water intense commodities driving further the need for more water supplies in the agricultural and industrial sectors. A major concern in water management around the region is the rapid urban sprawl particularly in areas away from water supply sources. This growth is a consequence of natural growth and an on-going urbanization process as rural population continues to abandon farming in search of better life in cities and due to the difficulty in maintaining viable agriculture as water resources become scarcer. Climate change is expected to accelerate this process as a result of its negative impact on water supplies and indirectly as adaption measures will likely lead to further reduction in agricultural activities. The challenge presented by this on-going redistribution of population is to secure water supplies and provision of water services. In Lebanon for example, coastal cities particularly the capital Beirut where half the population live - water shortages are very frequent as local supplies are incapable of meeting the rising demand. Lacking access to adequate water services, people often tap illegally shallow aquifers resulting in serious sea water intrusion. In an attempt to reduce pressure on the heavily populated Cairo, government has encouraged urban development in desert areas which have presented serious challenges to procure water supplies over large distances. In Jordan the population is increasingly concentrated in the highlands several hundred meters above most prospective water resources.
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Urban sprawl in several Arab cities has brought increasing numbers of people and economic assets in the harm way of extreme flooding events that seem to increase in frequency and intensity. This issue is discussed in a later section that addresses more broadly the rising number of flood disasters in the Arab region.
411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434
3.3. HIGH AGRICULTURAL WATER USE

High evapotranspiration rates in the arid Arab region reduce soil moisture content green water and consequently increase irrigation requirements that typically surpass 80% of the total water withdrawals. In comparison agriculture in the more humid and cool regions have minimal irrigation requirements. Also a large percentage of water used in agriculture is lost to evapotranspiration and consequently can not be reused. In comparison most of the water is used in the domestic and some industrial sectors is returned in the form of wastewater that can be treated and further reused (see Box 6.2 for discussion on consumption vs. use of water). Despite its high water consumption, agriculture has a low added value and contributes few fractions of a percent to the total Gross Domestic Product in most Arab countries. It however employs a large share of the total labor force especially in the least developing countries (Table 1). Agriculture still contributes significantly to the total food requirements and is considered an important component of the food security strategies of some Arab countries. Due to the projected increase in temperature and length of dry periods that will accompany climatic changes, evapotranspiration rates are expected to increase and consequently increase irrigation requirements. This however may be abated by the reduction in evapotranspiration due to the effect of higher CO2 levels. However, this CO2 effect is still being investigated and no conclusive results have yet been verified. Overall, the net impact of global warming is expected to increase irrigation requirements. Evans (2009) has found that the lengthening of the dry periods will reduce the area available for pastoralism and may as a result increase the need for irrigated fodder to maintain the same level of livestock. Due to increased competition from high value uses in the industrial and urban sectors, agricultural water use should be addressed within an integrated national socio-economic development strategy that involves other sectors. This is particularly important given that
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agriculture is the largest employer in many Arab countries and contributes significantly, yet decreasingly, to meeting food requirements. An integrated approach is required which coordinate efforts in all sectors. In general and considering the low return of agriculture particularly under the increasing cost of water scarcity, many agricultural workers are already abandoning the sector and migrate to urban areas. Although several policy makers and researchers perceive this phenomenon as a negative one, it may represent a healthy adaptation to changing conditions. Countries should support these workers in managing through this difficult transition by offering social and financial support, education and vocal training.
443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462
3.4. DEPLETION OF STRATEGIC GROUNDWATER RESERVES

In an attempt to meet rising demand, many Arab countries resorted to mining their groundwater reserves. Over several decades, roughly from the 1960s to the 1990s, these measures have drawn down levels in many aquifers by tens of meters rendering them economically unusable and in several cases aquifers were irreversibly damaged by salinisation from rising underlying saline waters or by seawater intrusion in coastal areas. This period also witnessed attempts by several Arab countries to achieve food sufficiency at the expense of depleting vast nonrenewable fossil aquifers which were filled several millennia ago during more humid periods. In Saudi Arabia, it is estimated that over 50% of fossil water was used to produce wheat that could have been bought in the global market at much lower costs. The opportunity cost of these lost water resources is enormous considering that Riyadh, the capital and largest city in the country, is mostly supplied with water desalinated on the Gulf coast and pumped 600 meters over 450 kms at a cost of about $1.5 per m3 (Allan 2007). Some socio-economic development policies had a detrimental impact on strategic aquifers. For example, the earlier policies to settle nomads in the Northern Badia in Jordan gave unlimited access to underlying renewable aquifer which gets recharged from winter precipitation. Over a period of two decades water tables declined by several meters and water became too saline for use in agriculture. Poor groundwater licensing and water pricing and energy subsidies encouraged famers to unsustainably mine aquifers. The net effect of these policies is that farmers did not appreciate the social opportunity cost of water. Consequently high quality water was used
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to grow low values crops, while domestic users nearby in Amman were willing to pay very high prices for water (Chebaane et al. 2004). Climate change is expected to reduce recharge to groundwater. Lower precipitation levels and higher evaporation rates will decrease recharge to aquifers. Options to reduce evapotranspiration losses and optimize recharge of aquifers during the rainy season will be discussed later. Although the opportunity cost of water stored in aquifers is relatively well understood, a less obvious and as important value is the opportunity cost of storage, which is exemplified in the current estimate of cost required to develop a strategic reserve in the UAE for desalinated water. Along the Gulf, water storage is very low ranging from one day to 5 days at best (Dawoud 2009). This places these countries at the mercy of interruptions in desalination even for very short periods.
474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489
3.5. HIGH DEPENDENCY ON SHARED WATER RESOURCES

It is widely recognized that the watershed defined as the area that drains to a common main stream - is the most ideal level for managing water resources. Integrated watershed management facilitates optimal and balanced allocation of water resources among all the watershed inhabitants and ecosystems. The same applies to managing aquifer systems. However, such approach faces major obstacles if these natural basins are shared among different countries, and even among different administrative divisions within the same country. First, national socioeconomic development objectives could be at odd with those of integrated watershed/aquifer management, as countries seek to utilize natural resources within their national boundaries for the sole benefit of their citizens. This may include not only utilizing water resource within the same watershed or aquifer, but also transferring it to other parts of the country. Second, technological advances have made it possible to develop large water storage and conveyance infrastructure and utilizes deep aquifers that were not accessible in the past. Third, historically and particularly in the Middle East, human settlement and consequently sizable water use started and proliferated first in the downstream areas due to their more hospitable landscape and then temperate climate compared to those of the rugged upstream regions. Fourth, the high variability
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and uneven distribution of water makes its value, and the potential of conflict over it, vary over time and space. In the aftermath of the First World War, newly formed political boundaries crossed natural water basins and aquifers. Following independence Arab countries sought to develop their water resources to expand their agriculture and meet rising domestic and industrial demands. This has brought several countries into competition and potential conflict over shared water resources. The significance of these issues to water resources management varies across the region and depends on the level of dependency on shared water resources, the upstream/downstream position of the country, economical and military stature, and the political relationships among sharing countries. On the Euphrates/Tigris basin, Turkey has the most favorable position being the upstream country with powerful military and high level of development. This allowed it despite repeated protests from downstream Syria and Iraq - to extensively dam the Euphrates basin and pursue aggressive development in the Tigris basin jeopardizing runoffs to Syria and Iraq. Also tension rose between Syria and Iraq over filling a major reservoir in Syria. A less conspicuous tension is broiling over Irans recent diversion of major tributaries to Tigris which have reduced significantly runoff to the Marshes. On the Nile basin, Egypt is maintaining dominance despite being in the extreme downstream end. Egypt hence influence water resources development in upstream countries. Egypt has championed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) to facilitate collaboration on managing the Nile basin. The situation on the Nile Basin is however diverging into a crisis as Egypt and Sudan who have entered in agreement 1957 to share the Nile water are facing off against most of the upstream riparian countries who oppose this agreement in favor of another they have proposed. The new agreement, the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was recently signed by most riparian countries calls for replacing the NBI with a basin commission that manages water resources in the Nile Basin on behalf of all the Nile Basin states (Stephan 2010). Egypt and Sudan strongly oppose this agreement and consider it nonbinding. It seems that both countries are concerned that the CFA would effectively reduce their current water allocations.
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517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543
3.6. INCREASING LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGES FROM EXTREME FLOODING EVENTS
Several devastating flash floods in the past few years have resulted in significant loss of life and economic damage across the Arab region. According to ESCWA (2010) flash floods have claimed a thousand lives in November 2001 and another 31 lives November 2008 in Algeria. Cyclone Gono claimed 50 lives in August 2007 in Oman. Flash floods occasionally kill scores of people in Egypt, Yemen and other Arab countries. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding events. This is only however one side of the problem. A flooding disaster is a construct of a physical flooding event of massive and fast moving body of water, and an impacted area which contains people, and buildings, infrastructure and other vital economic assets (Assaf 2011). An intense rainfall event in an open desert is hardly an issue, whereas a much less intense rainfall event in a crowded, highly built and poorly drained area is of great concern as it may lead to torrents that sweep people to their death. The flooding event in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia that killed over 150 people and caused great economical losses was initiated by an intense rainfall storm that dumped 90 mm in four hours over an area that normally receives 45 mm per year. Although the storm is unprecedented in record, the resultant torrents would have been reduced significantly had the area been equipped with adequate drainage system. More significantly, the death and damage could have been reduced or even eliminated had development being avoided in the natural drainage area of the ephemeral flash flood, known as wadi. A large number of the victims were migrant workers who lived in poorly constructed shanty houses in the wadi area. Also, the area contains major highway conjunction, which explains the large number of destroyed cars and killed auto occupants. To make matter worse, the police and civil defense units were ill prepared to handle large-scale disasters (Assaf 2010). As indicated earlier with respect to droughts, we can no longer assume storm patterns to resemble those in the past. Water resources and urban planners need to incorporate this new level of uncertainties in their future designs and plans.
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544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565
3.7. DETERIORATING WATER QUALITY CONDITIONS

Deteriorating water quality conditions are rendering significant water resources unusable even for less water quality demanding applications. For example, domestic sewage, industrial waste and agricultural return flows from Cairo is sent mostly untreated through the 70 km Bahr El Baqar channel to discharge into the 1000 - km2 Lake Manzala in the north east of the Nile Delta. The discharge from Bahr El Baqar is heavily loaded with a wide range of contaminants including bacteria, heavy metals, and toxic organics. This has resulted in high fish mortality and malformation. Local fishery has suffered significantly due to the wide public aversion of consuming the Lakes fish which in the past represented third of total fish harvest in Egypt (USAID 1997). The Upper Litani basin in Lebanon provides another stark example of how years of poor wastewater management has turned the river, mostly fed by freshwater springs, into a sewage tunnel during the large part of the year (Assaf 2008). The situation is also compounded by an uncontrolled use of fertilizers that have increased contamination of underlying aquifers (Assaf 2009). Climate change would exacerbate these problems as higher temperatures will increase bacterial activity and lower freshwater supplies increase the strength of wastewater. Salinization by excessive mining of aquifer is prevalent throughout the region especially in heavily populated coastal areas including Beirut, Gaza, Latyica) and along the Gulf. Also, interior aquifers (e.g. Amman-Zarqa basin) have been affected by the problem as excessive abstraction draw up underlying saline waters. Salinization is very difficult to reverse as it requires large amounts of freshwater to bring down the freshwater/saline interface. Lacking any control measures, climate change is projected to intensify salinization of aquifers as the increased supply/demand gap will encourage further abstraction of groundwater
566 567 568 569 570
3.8. LOSS OF WATER ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

The detrimental impact of the rapid development, in particular those related to water resources, on the environment and the health of ecosystems has been overlooked in the Arab region. Several wetlands and estuaries have been disrupted and even destroyed due to water diversion schemes and pollution from domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors.
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571 572 573 574 575 576 577
3.9. WATER GOVERNANCE

Water resources management problems in the Arab region are compounded by generally poor governance. Although most countries have water policies or strategies that address several of the challenges addressed earlier, implementation is lagging behind considerably. World Bank (2007) has attributed this to several reasons including weak political resolve to implement policies, lack of accountability, and the ineffective division of water management and services among public and private sectors.
578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592
3.10.
WEAK INFORMATION BASE AND INADEQUATE
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY

Planning and decision making is highly dependent on access to accurate and relevant information. Not only is data on water and for that matter other important issues - are hard to come by, the few available information are not freely accessible due to official restrictions related to security concerns and the general reluctance of research agencies and individual researchers to share information with each others. For instance, efforts to carry out climate modeling studies for the Levant are hampered by unavailability of representative measurements (Evans et al. 2004). Research and development are not given high priority by Arab governments judged by very low budgetary allocations ranked second lowest after Africa (Laamrani and Salih 2010). Research is conducted in an ad-hoc manner with limited scope. Taylor et al. (2011) have remarked that research institutions in the Arab region are distinctively weak throughout all processes of producing, disseminating and using knowledge, which reflect very negatively on the state of research and development in the region.
593 594 595 596
3.11.
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSUES
There are few studies in the Arab world that assess public awareness and concern about water scarcity and the climate change issues. The public is generally conscious of water problems, yet
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not fully knowledgeable of the causes. There is a general distrust of governments and that applies to water policies and initiatives. Many believe that groundwater resources are abundant and virtually limitless and that government policies are designed to restrict their use and are discriminately directed at the disadvantaged particularly in the farming community. The impact of climate change on water resources is less understood by the public which largely reflect the less clear messages received through the research community and media. The Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) has conducted a survey to assess public awareness of climate change issue in the Arab region. The results indicated high awareness of climate change and concern about its potential impacts (Saab 2009). However, the significance of these results is relatively limited considering that the survey was only distributed to subscribers of AFEDs magazine.
608
4. A DAPTATION OPTIONS
Section summary: This section provides an overview of adaptation policies and measures that can be implemented to address water resources issues in a changing climate. The section also discusses how Arab countries are currently managing water resources challenges. In a future world when a warmer, drier and more volatile climate in the Arab region will most likely exacerbate already adverse water conditions it is necessary to adopt holistic water strategies that can respond in a balanced manner to a multitude of complex, intertwined and often conflicting challenges. These strategies have to be flexible and adaptive to address the high uncertainties on how conditions may materialize in the future. In this water scarce region, water is the common denominator and often the most limiting factor in key socio-economic sectors. It is consequently necessary that adaptation strategies incorporate water issues as well as key sectors such as agriculture, urban development, trade and tourism. To facilitate developing these strategies we propose several adaptation options organized under the umbrella of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) and socio-economic development framework. The IWRM components are derived from the well established approach
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that advocates balancing water supply development with demand management with full consideration of environmental issues. The IWRM components are complemented with measures that address water role in socio-economic development. A central theme in this approach is that there are no fit-for-all adaptation solutions that apply to all Arab countries. Even at the national level, adaptation measures have to take into consideration variations from one locality to another. An effective strategy is to consider a portfolio of adaptation options from among a pool of measures tailored to suit each countrys political, socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Gulf countries for example will need to focus on enhancing their desalination capacities, reusing of wastewater reuse and developing strategic reserves while pursuing aggressive water demand management programs. Countries dependent on shared water resources would have to place a high priority on reaching agreements on managing these resources. In formulating these portfolios it is important that synergy and also potential conflict is clearly considered among individual adaptation measures. For instance, losses caused by inefficient agricultural policies can outweigh gains from water conservation measures. In contrast, the benefits of reducing pollution by treating wastewater can be greatly enhanced through developing the necessary regulations and infrastructure to facilitate using treated wastewater in agriculture and groundwater recharge. In the following sections, several adaptation options are explored and discussed within the context of the Arab region. For the purpose of simplifying this discussion, adaption options are categorized into two main categories: water management and water related development policies in non-water sectors. The first category captures the two main IWRM branches of supply and demand management in addition to other relevant water issues such as governance, disaster risk management and cooperation in managing shared water resources. Water related policies in nonwater sectors include agricultural policies, food security, energy pricing and economic regional integration. Table 5 shows the topology of adaptation options. It is important to underscore that the order in presenting these methods in the topology or the sections does not signify the importance of one measure over the other. As indicated earlier the relative significance of these measures varies from one country to another.
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Table 5. Topology of water climate-change adaptation options
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4.1. INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is considered an ideal tool to assure economically optimal, socially equitable and environmentally friendly utilization of water resources. The IWRM has also been recognized as an effective climate change adaptation tool (Cap-Net 2009). IWRM is based on four principles brought forward by the International Conference on Water and the Environment in Dublin in 1992, and later adopted by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The principles include (Agarwal et al. 2000): 1st Principle: Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development, and the environment; 2nd Principle: Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners, and policy-makers at all levels; 3rd Principle: Women play a central part in the provision, management, and safeguarding of water; and
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4th Principle: Water has an economic value in all its competing uses, and should be recognized as an economic good. IWRM is a conceptual approach that does not lend itself directly to specific measures. Subsequent efforts by the Global Water Partnership (GWP) focused on developing implementation frameworks for the IWRM. Those include balancing water demand management with supply management, ecosystem protection and social equity. It also emphasized the importance of water as an economic commodity that need to be managed to reflect its scarcity and optimize its socio-economic and environmental services.
675 676 677 678 679
4.2. SUPPLY SIDE MANAGEMENT

Water resources management traditionally focused on developing water supplies. Although water resources management efforts are leaning toward better demand management and governance, water supply development is necessary to assure reliability of water resources systems and optimal utilization of resources.
680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693
4.2.1. STORAGE AND CONVEYANCE

The earlier inhabitants of the Arab region have recognized the value of storing water as well as agricultural produce during times of abundance to survive through times of shortage. Storage systems ranged in scale from the simple rainfall collecting cisterns to the Marreb dam in Yemen and old Egyptian dams. Elaborate systems were also developed to bring water from relatively humid areas to water scarce settled areas. Some of these systems survived several millennia such as the Aflaj (Jagannathan et al. 2009). As their modern counterparts these systems were relatively effective in dealing with the strong seasonal patterns of rainfall. However, extended multi-year droughts were much harder to mitigate and occasionally led to famine and societal collapse. In modern times several Arab countries have invested significantly in water supply infrastructure. The region has now the worlds highest storage capacity per m3 (World Bank 2007). These investments have greatly enhanced access to water supplies and facilitated dramatic expansion of agriculture. For example, the Aswan High Dam is noted for bringing great water supply and flood protection benefits to Egypt. Prior to its construction, Egypt suffered through
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major debilitating droughts and the large part of its population was at the mercy of devastating seasonal floods. The High Aswan dam have offered Egypt a significant control on runoff from the Nile which otherwise has highly seasonal flow - to provide stable water supply. Combined with a good river forecast and operational system for the entire Nile Basin, the dam has also enabled Egypt to effectively weather the extended drought of mid 1980s (Conway 2005). Several factors influence the effectiveness of storage strategy: the size, cost, rate of loss, and externalities. Large reservoirs are needed to provide adequate and reliable water supplies for large communities and secure irrigation for agriculture during the rainless growing season. Large reservoirs have also the advantage of scale of economy where water storage generally cost less per unit of volume. However they are costly to build, maintain and can result in massive social and environmental disturbances. For example Egypt was hardly pressed financially and politically to secure funding for the High Aswan Dam. The dam has successfully stopped damaging seasonal floods at the expense however of forfeiting their beneficial natural function of carrying nutrients-laden sediments to replenish the Nile Delta (Syvitski 2008). Not only is the Nile Delta losing its natural fertility, but it is also shrinking as little sediments are arriving to replace those lost by erosion.
710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720
4.2.2. INTEGRATED SURFACE AND GROUNDWATER STORAGE STRATEGY

Reservoirs in arid and semi-arid regions sustain significant evaporation and seepage losses due to flat terrain, permeable geological formations, and long and hot summers (Sivapragasam et al. 2009). It is estimated that evaporation from Lake Nasser (reservoir of the High Aswan Dam) consumes about 5% of the total Nile flow (Sadek et al. 1997). Lake Assad in Syria also loses substantial amounts of water. In warmer climate evaporation rates increase reducing the storage value of these reservoirs. To reduce evaporation rates, earlier storage and conveyance methods relied on utilizing underground storage and tunnels. Evaporation is effectively eliminated from water cisterns and the underground Aflaj system. These practices can be reinstated to complement rather than replace, due to their smaller scale, existing storage facilities.
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A more promising implementation of the store-under-ground approach is to use the vast natural aquifer storage capacity to store and improve the quality of water. Due to having virtually no evaporation, aquifers have a distinct advantage over surface reservoirs in semi-arid regions. Also the Arab region has ample aquifer capacity in comparison to the few suitable sites for surface storage. Aquifer storage can be used to store excess winter runoff and treated wastewater. In Saudi Arabia, a large network of recharge dams dots the arid Arabian Desert. Al-Turbak (1991) indicated that these dams are highly effective in recharging shallow aquifers. Abu Dhabi has embarked on a massive multi-billion program based on the Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) approach to use local aquifers as strategic reserves for desalinated water. Currently the UAE has only 2 day desalinated water storage capacity making the country extremely vulnerable to any disruption in the desalination plants. Other GCC have similar storage capacity with the highest not exceeding 5 days (Dawoud 2009). In the face of projected increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts, Arab countries should develop long-term plans to manage its natural and man-made storages to offer reliable water supplies on a multi-year basis. Acting as water banks, storages can be managed to strike a value-driven balance between supply and demand through systems that involve forecasting and monitoring water inputs, outputs and stock levels and protecting water quality. Policies and institutions should be developed to protect these vital resources. If properly managed, water storage both surface and groundwater - can be an effective and cost-effective measure in mitigating climatic seasonal and multi-year variability.
741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749
4.2.3. MANAGEMENT OF GROUNDWATER RESOURCES

Not only is groundwater the largest source of water supplies for most Arab countries, but it also represent a strategic reserve that countries including those with substantial surface water- can fall back on to meet their needs during prolonged droughts. Allan contends (2007) that groundwater has played an instrumental role in the socio-economic transformation of the Arab region. In several Arab countries, particularly those with no perennial surface water, aquifers have been heavily mined to defer water crisis. However these near-term stop-gap measures have resulted in major decline in groundwater stocks and the permanent loss of several aquifers due to salinisation and seawater intrusion. Several other aquifers were contaminated by domestic,
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industrial and agricultural waste. Several major fossil aquifers were heavily mined to support low-value agricultural activities. The strategic importance of groundwater resources will rise as climate change further shrink water supplies in the region. Fossil groundwater resources are particularly important. These resources should be reserved for domestic use and high value industrial and agricultural activities. Arab countries should place strict regulations to prevent depletion of these resources and develop programs to rehabilitate and recharge these aquifers to reclaim their vital socioeconomical services Renewable groundwater resources are in theory best managed by maintaining a balance between supply and abstraction and optimal allocation of water withdrawals. In practice, however, two main barriers stand in the face of proper management of groundwater resources. First, many of these resources stretch over several countries that in most cases did not enter into agreement to manage these resources. This has encouraged overexploitation of these resources. Second, encouraged by past agricultural policies, many of these resources are already being used by farmers making it difficult to reverse these activities. In many cases farming has only stopped after water levels have dropped significantly or water got too saline to be used in agriculture. However, after several decades of improper management, many Arab countries alarmed by the loss of valuable groundwater stocks have instated policies that restrict groundwater extraction and curtail agricultural activities based on groundwater. Jordan has placed restrictions on abstraction and stopped issuing licensing for drilling wells in the Amman-Zarqa Basin after aquifers dropped several meters following years of excessive abstraction (Chebaane et al. 2004). Saudi Arabia has phased out wheat farming using fossil water, which climaxed several years ago at the expense of depleting valuable non-renewable stocks. Sowers and Weinthal (2010) indicate however that these restrictions are facing resistance from highly influential agricultural firms and some have circumvented these regulations by switching to other crops.
775 776 777
4.2.4. PROTECTION OF WATER RESOURCES

The relentless and growing pollution of water resources in the region is depriving it sometimes irreversibly - of vital natural assets that are very costly to replace. Consequently, there is an
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urgent need to implement laws and regulation to stem off pollution. Although several Arab countries have strict laws and regulations for protecting water resources, only few have implemented them effectively. A notable exception is Jordan which has recently created water and environmental protection program that includes a dedicated law enforcement force the first of its kind in the region (Subah, A. & Margane 2010). Water pollution is strongly associated with the lack of alternatives for waste disposal and treatment. For example, urban areas which are served by sewage system may simply dump their sewage untreated into streams. The same applies in areas where solid wastes are not disposed in properly constructed landfills. Artificial recharge could be used to retard seawater intrusion by creating a wall of freshwater at the seawater/freshwater interface. The coastal aquifers in Lebanon are currently under a great danger from being overwhelmed by seawater intrusion due to the excessive extraction of groundwater especially in the drier period of the year (Saadeh 2008). Prior to the vast urbanization of the coastal area, seawater was kept at check by the hydraulic pressure of inflow from mountainous region. To restore this balance, several measures need to be taken including controlling illegal pumping and recharge aquifer with excess runoff in the winter and treated wastewater throughout the year.
795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804 805
4.2.5. WASTEWATER TREATMENT AND REUSE

Improperly managed, highly contaminated wastewater is highly likely to find its way to streams and aquifers endangering public health, damaging vital ecosystems and rendering unusable valuable water resources. Also, disposed untreated wastewater is occasionally accessed by farmers trying to manage through drier times of the years, or simply to avoid paying for water services. Unless proper action is taken, this maladaptation practice is expected to intensify in a warmer and drier climate. High capital and operational costs are one of the main obstacles to set up wastewater treatment systems. These can however be defrayed by reusing treated wastewater particularly in agriculture and freeing up high quality freshwater for domestic use. The nutrient laden treated wastewater has the added benefit of reducing the need for costly and environmentally unfriendly fertilizers.
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Given the choice farmers however prefer to use freshwater fearing restrictions by importing countries on wastewater grown produce and the public aversion of using such produce. Gulf countries for example imposed restrictions in the 1980s on importing Jordanian produce as the country expanded the use of treated wastewater in agriculture. Several measures are required to expand the use of treated wastewater in agriculture. Stringent public health regulations in the application of wastewater water and handling of produce are necessary to reduce risk and increase public confidence and acceptance. Treatment methods need to be tuned and optimized to application use requirements. Less stringent, and consequently less costly, quality requirements are adequate if irrigation methods and crop choices reduce the risk of exposure of workers and produce to treated wastewater. More stringent standards are required to treat wastewater at the tertiary level for recharging aquifers used for drinking water. Religious fatwa have cleared the way for using treated wastewater to grow food. Using treated wastewater has to be well integrated into the overall water resources management. In particular regulations and pricing of freshwater use in agriculture have to be in tune with those of treated wastewater. In Tunisia, preferential pricing of treated wastewater over freshwater have encourage wider use of treated wastewater. Jordan applies a combination of restriction and pricing to expand the use treated wastewater drawn by gravity from domestic users in Amman - in the Jordans valley and pump freshwater to Amman. These with other measures allowed the country to defer capital investment in expensive water supply projects. Arab countries vary in the scale and nature of their wastewater treatment capacity and level of reuse. Generally water scarcity, financial capacities and prominence of agricultural sector play a role in shaping wastewater treatment reuse. Data on yearly generated, treated and reused wastewater volumes are presented in Table 3. However, these figures can not be used to compare among countries as many are out of date and were released several at different years. ChoukrAllah (2010) provides an overall assessment of wastewater reuse in the Arab world. AHT (2009) examine the current wastewater reuse practice in five Arab countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia). Both references indicate that Tunisia and Jordan are the most progressive in wastewater reuse and treatment. The GCC countries have high wastewater treatment capacity particularly at the highest level of treatment. Treated wastewater in these countries is primarily
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used in landscaping and the bulk of the treated wastewater is released into sea. Egypt have substantial amount of generated wastewater, which is mostly treated and reused outside the Nile Delta to support expanding desert reforestation schemes and cultivation of Jatropha for produce biodiesel (AHT 2009).
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4.2.6. DESALINATION
For Arab countries with extreme water scarcity, desalination is the primary source of water supply. Historically these countries mainly concentrated in the GCC - were very thinly populated. Advent of oil and the consequent booming in population has necessitated tapping into seawater to meet unabated increases in demand. The GCC countries were at the lead worldwide in utilizing desalination technology. Today nearly 50% of the worlds total desalination production is concentrated in these countries (Bushnak 2010). After decades of contemplating securing water supplies through piping schemes from other countries e.g. Peace pipe from Turkey, Green pipe between Iran and Qatar GCC countries have adopted desalination as their long-term strategy to achieve water security. Desalination offers exclusive sovereignty over produced water resources. However the technology is energyintensive and consequently has large carbon footprint. Brine and heat from desalination plants have potentially detrimental environmental impacts that can be costly to manage. Also GCC countries have very limited storage capacity necessary to maintain supplies during interruptions of plant operations. In the Gulf region, operation of desalination plants can be suspended for days during red tides. There are also other concerns related to uncertainties in the political stability in the Middle East. Several options for enhancing reliability of water supplies in the GCC include developing surface water facilities, construction of large network connecting desalination plants in GCC countries and utilizing local aquifers as strategic storages of desalinated water. The first option was assessed to be too costly and results in the stagnation of water. The second is very costly and requires coordination among different countries. The third option is currently being considered by several GCC countries. As indicated in an earlier section, Abu Dhabi has embarked on developing a multi-billion strategic aquifer storage system that would provide several months of storage capacity (Dawoud 2009).
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Due to desalinations high financial and environmental costs, large-scale desalination should be considered after exhausting more cost effective and sustainable supply and demand side options. Even in GCC countries, investment in additional desalination capacity can be deferred by opting to better demand management through effective pricing and reducing unaccounted-for-water in distribution networks. In coastal cities in other parts of the Arab world, desalination can be used to enhance water supply systems and augment other water supplies. Desalination can be also a flexible and cost effective water supply solution in isolated areas, or touristic destinations. In these areas, desalination could be less costly than retrieving water from a distant water supply. The Arab region is known to have large quantities of brackish water. These waters can be desalinated at a lower cost than seawater to produce high quality drinking water. However, treating effluents of desalination plants in interior areas situated far away from the coast can be quite costly. There are two main types of desalination technology: thermal and mechanical. The first type was introduced earlier and is essentially based on separating water from minerals through evaporation a process that is very energy intensive. The second type is based on the reverse osmosis (RO) principle where saline water is highly pressured through membranes leaving most of minerals out. The RO desalination technology requires less energy and is easily scalable due to its high modularity (Al-Jamal and Schiffler 2009). However the thermal technology mostly the multistage flash (MSF) is still preferred by some GCC countries as disposed heat is used in power generation. More recently however RO-MSF hybrid systems are now being as cogeneration systems (Bushnak 2010). Most desalination plants are run by fossil fuels which have recently witnessed skyrocketing and highly variable prices. A new technology trend in desalination is to utilize renewable energy particularly solar energy. This is especially suited to the Arab region with its vast solar energy potential. Currently, the cost of desalination using solar energy is 3 to 4 times higher than conventional energy source. However, the cost is projected to decline in the future which will make it competitive in the future given also that the cost of fossil fuel is projected to continue rising. Despite their vast oil reserves, several GCC countries are investing in renewable energy particularly in desalination applications. Both MASDAR in Abu Dhabi and the recently
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established King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE) have ambitious research and development programs in solar energy and desalination. Due to the importance of desalination in reducing vulnerability of the region to water scarcity, the Arab countries to support research and development in developing this desalination especially in combination with renewable water resources. Bushnak (2010) proposes that desalination plants are more ideally operated by the private sector under public regulation. This would encourage healthy competition and facilitate more effective control of environmental impacts. For this approach to work however, water services have to be priced to recover cost of operation. Although this may increase the prices several folds, it is expected that it will be still constitute a manageable proportion of average income and lead to more conservative water uses. Pricing can be structured to avoid hurting low income sectors of the society. Desalination is relatively unaffected by climatic changes which makes it notwithstanding cost limitation - an effective adaptation option in the face of climatic variability. Even in countries with relatively abundant water resources, a certain level of desalination capacity complemented with a strategic storage provides a buffer against the risk of severe shortages in domestic water supplies during drought times.
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4.3. DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

Most Arab countries have already exhausted their water supply development potential. As has been emphasized several times in this chapter climate change will exacerbate the supply/demand imbalance. Consequently managing demand offers effective and realistic options given also the ample room for water use efficiency across different sectors. An emerging set of best management practices have greatly enhanced water efficiency in several water scarce environments. Chief among these is using pricing as an instrument not only to reduce water wastage, but also to recover production cost and assure economic viability of water utilities. There is an ample room for reducing the high unaccounted-for-water rates in networks across the Arab region. The public should be also engaged through media, school and interactive awareness raising campaigns that highlight the nature, scale and significance of the water scarcity in the
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region and how it is expected to evolve in a warmer and drier world. Well established water efficiency practices in irrigation, urban landscaping and other water using sectors can greatly reduce demand. In the following sections we explore these aspects of demand side management measures.
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4.3.1. WATER PRICING

In economics, the price of a commodity reflects its scarcity. An abundant material holds little value. Even water has lower value in more humid regions, given also that significant portion of it is stored in soil reducing demand for irrigation and consequently overall demand for water. However many people particularly decision makers are adamantly resistant to the idea that water can be priced. They argue that water is necessary for life and access to it should not be limited by placing a price on it. However, only a small fraction of water is used for domestic purpose, and only a small part of it is necessary for survival. Most of the domestic water use goes towards cooking, hygiene, gardening and car washing, etc. Although some of these activities are necessary the amount of water used can be reduced without greatly reducing their functions. However, the incentive to reduce water use in these activities is highly sensitive to water price. Higher prices encourage water saving and vice versa. The lions share of water resources are used in agriculture, which also have a much higher rate of consumption than the domestic sector. Food produced by local agriculture can be substituted by food imported at lower prices regionally or globally (see discussion in Box 6.1). Regardless of how water is ultimately priced, it is important to understand its real full cost. According to Agarwal et al. (2000) the full cost of water is composed of a full economic cost and the environmental cost of forfeiting waters ecosystem services (see Figure 9). The full economic cost is widely, yet wrongly, confused with the full supply cost, which only captures the actual cost of providing water supply and services including profit margin. Commonly overlooked is the opportunity cost which reflects the additional benefit forfeited from not using water in higher value applications. Opportunity cost is quite significant under scarce water conditions, where for example water supplied almost freely for irrigation is worth considerably higher by domestic users. Examples are the cost of desalinating and pumping water to Riyadh from the Arabian Gulf vs. the nominal amount charged for using fossil water for agriculture. A third component of the
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full economic cost is the lost benefits by indirect users. This includes reduction in return flows from springs and streams when those are significantly drawn down by withdrawals. Another important item not considered by the above model of water full cost is the cost of treating and disposing wastewater. This cost can dwarf the full supply cost in certain locations. However, these costs can be mitigated through reusing treated wastewater as suggested in an earlier section.
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Figure 9. Components of the full cost of water (source: Agarwal et al. (2000))
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Pricing based on retrieving the full cost in the Arab region is generally prohibitive considering that many Arab countries adopt complex social welfare systems hinged on food and agricultural subsidies which in turn dependent on subsidized water services and irrigation. Removing these subsidies may trigger a cascade of social and economic upheavals that could have great political ramifications. At minimum water should be priced to recover full supply cost, which is necessary for economic sustainability of water utilities. To protect the poor the pricing should be structured to allow for below cost tariffs on a threshold of water usage necessary to maintain health and well being. Additional units of water can be charged progressively higher to restrain excessive and wasteful uses. Many Arab countries have highly subsidized rates including the GCC states where full supply costs are very high. Other countries such as Jordan and Tunisia have set
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effective pricing schemes. Tunisia employs a favorable differential pricing for treated wastewater to encourage its use in Agriculture. Well structured and persistent demand management measures in the Rabat-Casablanca area in Morocco have drastically suppressed projected water demand deferring planned major water supply projects for several years (DGH Rabat 2002). Effective pricing requires adequate institutional and regulatory conditions. Users are willing to pay higher prices for better quality water services. The overall impact would be positive if water pricing is accompanied with improved services and transparent accounting which require reliable metering system. This can be a great challenge in countries with severe water scarcities where water services are highly interruptible often days at a time. Only special and particularly more expensive types of meters can are accurate under these conditions. A recent study by the World Bank (2010) has shown that many Arab cities can and should strive to maintain a 24/7 service. Water pricing for agricultural use is a highly contentious issue in the Arab region. The current excessively underpriced or even free agricultural water supplies would have to be priced dramatically much higher to collect supply costs, let alone opportunity costs. Increasing prices to capture these costs would expose the agricultural sector with its massive labor force to high shocks that may have huge economical, social and political ramifications. Such measures have to be part of a larger development strategy that seeks to diversify the economy and support the agricultural communities and workforce for more productive agriculture and low water intensive industrial sectors.
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4.3.2. REDUCING UNACCOUNTED FOR WATER IN DISTRIBUTION NETWORK

Unaccounted-for Water (UFW) in distribution network is a primary drain of valuable and scarce water resources. UFW is defined as the difference between the amount of water delivered by the water utility and the amount actually billed. UFW capture losses in the network, illegal water use and inaccurate metering. The UFW can surpass 60% in poorly maintained distribution networks in some Arab cities including Sana, Beirut and Jericho. These rates indicate great and largely preventable losses considering that the UFW rates can be as low as 5% in highly pressurized distribution networks as those in Singapore and Japan (Ueda and Benouahi 2009).
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The opportunity costs of UFW are quite high in the Arab region. In the GCC countries opportunity cost of UFW are equal to the cost of desalination and pumping. In Libya the cost is at least equal to the capital and operational costs of delivering water via the Great Man-Made River system that tap the countrys main fossil aquifers in the south and delivers water hundreds of kilometers north to the coast. Consequently rehabilitation of distribution networks has great returns in the Arab Region. Rehabilitating old networks also has great public health benefits as it reduces the risk of contaminated water entering network through leaks which is exacerbated by the relatively low pressure in many networks in the region.
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4.3.3. WATER REALLOCATION

Reallocation of water from low value to high value uses has clear economical merits. A mere 5% reallocation from agriculture in many Arab countries doubles the amount of water available for domestic users. This would eliminate the need of or defer the development of capital intensive water supply projects. In Jordan, the on-going reallocation from agriculture to urban users has allowed the country to extend its existing resources for several years without requiring developing the major Disi project. Ability to reallocate water resources in short order is a necessary adaptive feature of water resources system. Egypt managed to escape virtually unscathed the severe 8 year drought which ended in 1987 by banning water intensive rice cropping while maintaining domestic supply (Conway 2005).
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4.3.4. WATER TRADING /MARKETS

One of the successful approaches to optimize water use is to facilitate trading of water rights thus allowing water to move from low value to high value uses. Typically a water market would help farmers sell their water rights on a short or long term basis to other agricultural or domestic users. Setting up a successful water market requires major institutional and legal setup supported by a water rights registry system. These transactions can be substantial and may preclude water trading if not properly managed. There are however successful examples of water markets in semi-arid regions in California and Australia. Water rights in Arab countries can be quite
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complicated and are not easily tradable. Also some Arab countries place strict rules regarding selling water from agriculture (AHT 2009). Gohar and Ward (2010) discuss the potential of water trading and markets in Egypt.
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4.3.5. RAISING PUBLIC AWARENESS

Despite evident water scarcity across the Arab region, there is a relatively wide spread perception that groundwater is quite abundant and governments are not releasing information on their quantities to stop people from using them. Although it is true that information on water resources are still lacking the Arab region, the perception that groundwater is abundant is false and counterproductive. This raises the need to better inform people about the conditions of water resources in the Arab region and how they are likely to be impacted by climate change. There are several public awareness campaigns across the regions, but more is still needed. People have to be engaged in the process of water resource management. This requires a transparent process involving media, schools and nongovernmental organizations.
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4.4. OTHER ADAPTATION ISSUES IN THE WATER SECTOR
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4.4.1. WATER GOVERNANCE

Management of water resources and provision of water services involve a complex array of formal and informal organizations and different and often competing users and other stakeholders in the context of varying socio-economic, environmental and political conditions. Successful water management requires therefore effective governance that establishes the mandates, authorities and responsibilities of different institutions and delineates relationships among them and other actors. Such governance system is necessary for setting up policies, and enacting laws and regulations to facilitate implementation of the IWRM principles of economical optimization, social equity and environmental sustainability. Rogers and Hall (2003) have identified several conditions to achieve good governance including: inclusiveness, accountability, participation, transparency, predictability and responsiveness. In water governance, this would entitle involving civil society in decision making, developing a fair and
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transparent water rights system, proper monitoring and sharing of information, and balanced involvement of the public and private sectors in managing water resources and delivering services. Arab countries are generally behind in reforming their water sectors. Very few have water specific legislations, and even those are not well developed (Majzoub 2010). World Bank (2007) identifies poor accountability as the main obstacle to effective management of water resources. The report relates the problem to weak political will to undertake necessary water reforms that may stir popular resentments. The report proposes more transparent approach that engages the public and consequently communicates the need to take necessary, but difficult, actions such as deregulation of utilities, pricing, and restrictions on water use. Global Water Partnership (GWP 2003c) offers through its GWP Toolbox for IWRM a wide range of options based on the IWRM approach to achieve better governance. Several Arab countries have applied some of these tools to enhance water governance. In Egypt, GWP Toolbox methods were used to support institutional strengthening of the Alexandria General Water Authority (GWP 2003a). In Jordan, GWP Toolbox instruments were used to facilitate the reforming of the public Jordan Valley Authority from a service provider to a regulatory agency overseeing provision of water services by private entities (GWP 2003b).
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4.4.2. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the risk of two type of climate water related hazards: flash floods and severe droughts. An increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding has already been observed across the region particularly in areas which have recently been populated with virtually no consideration of flooding risk. Extended droughts have not only devastated the least developing and most vulnerable countries such as Somalia, but they have also severely impacted localities within much more developed countries such as Syria. Addressing both types of hazards requires both reducing exposure to these hazards and developing capacity to cope with their aftermaths. Exposure to floods is a function of population density and distribution, the level of development of the potentially impacted area, flood proofing of buildings, effectiveness of drainage
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infrastructure, availability of flood warning systems, and preparedness of the public and emergency agencies. Reducing vulnerability to flooding requires coordinated efforts among different agencies and the active participation of all stakeholders. Urban planners should routinely incorporate flooding risk in their designs. Quite often urban development encroaches on high risk areas which have been avoided historically by the local population. Regulators should seek to delineate high risk areas and establish clear flood zone areas where development is either curtailed or totally banned. Drainage infrastructure should be designed based on proper statistical analysis of hydrological records with full consideration of potential impact of climate change. A common malpractice in the design of drainage systems is the exclusive reliance on available hydrological records which tend to be short and may not be representative of past extreme values and how they could change in the future. Instead infrastructure design should be based on the analysis of the frequency and intensity of extreme events determined based on statistical analysis of these events utilizing both available records and statistical and climate models. It is also important to take into consideration the adverse effect of sea level rise on the effectiveness of current drainage systems in coastal areas. Preparedness to flooding event involve raising public awareness, training of police and civil defense emergency units complemented with comprehensive and responsive flood forecasting system. Few efforts have been reported on flood mitigation and emergency planning in the region. One such effort is the pilot project partially funded by the European Commission to install a quasi real-time forecasting system in Wadi Watier catchment in the Sinai Desert, Egypt. Researchers from the Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI) in Egypt have collaborated with researchers from Belgium to develop FlaFloM, acronym for Flash Flood Manager. FlaFloM is a software system designed to process rainfall data obtained four times a day from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to estimate discharge in the Wadi Watier catchment (Vanderkimpen et al. 2008). According to the FlaFLoM developers, no similar system exists in the Arab region. The FlaFloM has a 48 lag time due to the delay in receiving rainfall data from the NCAR. However, the FlaFloM can be used more effectively if is supplied with true real-time atmospheric data. Dealing with severe droughts requires developing adequate storage and conveyance as discussed earlier and reducing the socio-economic vulnerability of the affected population. Agrarian
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populations depended on rainfed agriculture and pastoralists are particularly at risk. In the least developing countries such as Somalia socio-economic activities are highly in sync with rainfall patterns. Both farmers and pastoralists are vulnerable to extended droughts including the risk of loss of income, malnutrition and famine. Enhancing the resilience of these groups necessitates reducing their dependency on rainfed agriculture by diversifying the economy and creating alternatives for climate dependent economic activities. In the shorter term, authorities and nongovernmental organizations should develop plans to support these societies during drought periods through relief efforts including relocation to other parts of the country.
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4.4.3. COOPERATIVE MANAGEMENT OF SHARED WATER RESOURCES

In the absence of cooperation on managing shared water resources, unilateral adaptation to the impact of drying conditions may undermine these scarce resources, cause socio-economic and environmental harm to other parties and increase tension and the potential of conflict among sharing countries. Also, each country may opt to overdevelop the resource to lay claim of it against other countries. According to Stephan (2010) there are few agreements on shared water resources in the Arab region. Only very few of these agreements were ratified and none has lead to an effective joint management of shared resources. Syria and Lebanon reached an agreement on the Orontes River which was signed on 1994 and ratified on 2001. The two countries also entered into agreement on sharing the Al-Kabir Al Janoubi River on 2002, which has not yet been implemented due to several financial and political issues. Jordan and Syria signed an agreement on the Yarmouk River first in 1953 which was later superseded by another in 1987 which eventually led to the joint development of the Unity Dam. A comprehensive agreement on the Tigris/Euphrates Basin is still elusive despite several decades of technical cooperation and bilateral agreements among the three riparian countries Iraq, Syria and Iraq. Egypt and Sudan entered into agreement in 1992 on the sharing of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer. The two countries also signed an agreement in 1957 to share the Nile water. However, this agreement is contested by upstream countries which have recently signed another agreement that is in turn rejected by both Egypt
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and Sudan as discussed in an earlier section. ESCWA (2009) provides an overview of the status of cooperation or lack of it on the main shared water resources in the Arab region. Stephan (2010) proposes several actions to enhance more sound management of shared water resource in the region. In particular, she emphasizes initiating joint project, involving regional and international organizations such as ESCWA, ratifying international water laws and conventions, and reaching agreements on sharing these resources. Although most of these recommendations were discussed extensively by many of the workshops and conferences attended by these countries, they seem to have little effect to drive cooperation further. A large part of this inaction is attributed to power imbalance among sharing countries (Zeitoun 2006), the generally lukewarm if not hostile political relations among many of these countries, in addition to the perception by many countries especially those in the more favorable upstream position that any agreements will likely lead to more constraints on developing water resources within their boundaries. Turkeys current rapprochement with Arab countries is easing tension over disputes over the Tigris/Euphrates basin. It is not clear however, if this will eventually lead to an overarching agreement on this basin given that Turkey is still pursuing the development of its massive Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) (Mutlu 2011).
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4.5. ADAPTATION IN NON-WATER SECTORS

Water is an important input in many economically important sectors including agriculture, trade, industry, urban development and tourism. Consequently policies and developments in these sectors have direct impact on water availability and in the absence of a multi-sector water strategy they may result in the inefficient allocation of water resources and exacerbation of water scarcity and the impact of droughts and flooding (World Bank 2007). Given the lion share of agriculture in water withdrawal, agricultural policies and related policies on food security and rural development are key to successful adaption to increasing water scarcity. Industrial development strategies and trade tariffs on water intensive commodities highly influence the industrial water use. The rapid pace in urban development and the expansion of communities into desert areas have placed strenuous requirements on water supplies and services. Urban development policies need to be brought in line with water resources constraints identified by national water strategies. Tourism is a highly productive and expanding economic sector that is
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emerging as a large water user particularly during the drier part of the year when overall demand is at its peak. In managing water demand from these highly diverse sectors it is necessary to allocate water supplies sustainably by adhering to the integrated water resources principles of cost efficiency, social equity and environmental protection. The following sections highlight the importance of managing water demand in some of these sectors and address non-water climate change adaptation policies.
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4.5.1. AGRICULTURAL POLICIES

Agriculture is a very important sector to focus on in addressing adaptation to water scarcity in the Arab region. First, the sector uses over 80% of the total water supply. Water is greatly undervalued in agriculture leading to excessive waste and substantial social opportunity cost. A significant share of the population draws their income from agriculture making them highly vulnerable to climatic variability and change. Despite the increased reliance of Arab countries on food imports, agriculture still produces a significant share of the food requirements. A multipronged agricultural strategy that addresses all these aspects is consequently necessary in adapting to climatic changes. First, the agricultural sector needs to be reformed to facilitate implementation of more water efficient technologies, yet this need to take into consideration the overall water balance as discussed in Box 6.3. Second, water in agriculture should be priced to reflect its real cost, or at least recover full water supply cost. This will provide incentive to increase efficiency and facilitate more effective allocation of water resources. Given the highly subsidized rates of water used in agriculture it is expected that proper pricing policies and regulations will lead to reallocation of water to more productive sectors. Third, there should be an overall strategy particularly in the more water scarce countries to support human resources development initiatives to train and relocate agricultural labor and talent to more productive sectors of the economy. At present, the agriculture sector in several Arab countries resembles a large social welfare program to support highly unskilled labor force. Also, significant share of agricultural workers have very low wages or receive no compensation if they are members of the same family, particularly women and children.
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It is arguably more beneficial for both farmers and the society at large to offer farmers a real opportunity to move on to the more productive and less vulnerable industrial and services sectors. This would be a win-win situation where economy would grow faster, farmers would improve their livelihood, and agriculture becomes more productive and more water efficient easing pressure on water resources. Collier et al. (2008) contend that in Africa where agriculture contributes more than 50% to the GDP and employs 60% of the labor force adaptation strategies should aim to make economy and labor less dependent on agriculture. Although the African model predominantly agrarian and highly dependent on rainfed agriculture - is not similar to most Arab countries, it certainly applies to the least developing Arab countries. Some Arab countries may need to reconsider their expansionist agricultural policies aimed at increasing agricultural production or expanding arable land without taking into consideration the exorbitant water opportunity costs. Some countries have already started to curtail agricultural activity by limiting water allocations and through more realistic pricing. These need to be coordinated however with human resources development strategies that aim at developing skills of farmer to move into more productive sectors.
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4.5.2. ENERGY PRICING POLICIES

Energy and water are tightly integrated. Energy is used extensively to abstract, treat and transfer water over large distances and to high elevations such as the case of Riyadh and Amman. Desalination is very energy intensive. Consequently energy prices factor significantly in the cost of water services. In several Arab countries a significant share of the energy bill goes towards providing water services. In Jordan for example, energy used in provision of water services constitutes nearly quarter of the total public expenditure. Passing actual costs on to users would act as a powerful instrument to both curtail demand and recover substantial costs from direct users. Reducing energy subsidies which directly influence groundwater abstraction rates can reduce pressure on aquifers. Recent hikes in energy prices have greatly reduced groundwater extraction. For example, most farmers in Jordan rely on diesel pumps to extract groundwater. The gradual removal of energy subsidies in Jordan since 1997 has increased diesel prices by one order of magnitude and has made it prohibitively expensive to
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grow low value crops in the Northern Badia. This had the beneficial effect of relieving pressure on the local aquifer, which is considered a strategic water reserve for Amman (Assaf 2009). A similar experience has been reported in Saudi Arabia following an increase in fuel prices. These observations point to the value of energy pricing as an effective instrument to stem off depletion of groundwater in the region.
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4.5.3. FOOD SECURITY POLICIES

The issue of food security is a highly sensitive issue in the Arab region due to the high dependency of the region on imported food. Egypt for example is the worlds largest wheat importer. Fueled by dramatic growth in population and change in diet food demand had long outstripped the local food producing capacity of most Arab countries. Producing food in the Arab region faces several problems. First, due to high aridity high evaporation rates and less soil moisture - cropping is more water intensive in the Arab in comparison to humid regions. Second due to its scarcity water has very high opportunity costs in the Arab region. Third, global grain prices are competitively lower those of local produce. This is partially a result of farming subsidies in western countries which have benefited Arab countries. Interestingly, although nominal grain prices have increased considerably over the past few decades doubling in 2007 and tripling in mid 2008 - prices have actually declined in real terms (i.e. relative to global price indices) making the global peak in 2008 pale in comparison to the one experienced in 1974 (Dorward 2011). However Dorward contends that by using global price indices, many economists have underestimated the impact of recent price increases on poor communities and poor countries. At the heart of the debate on food security and water is the relation between food security and food self-sufficiency. Some policy makers argue that food self-sufficiency is a prerequisite to achieve food security. Consequently they consider that local food production contributes to national security and should have therefore a high priority over water use. However, recent food policy research views food security as an integrated, multidimensional, and cross-sector concept (Breisinger et al. 2010). Achieving food security requires a mix of options that includes in addition to local food production, food reserves, trade, and investment in external land
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resources (Breisinger et al. 2010). Water opportunity costs can be then built into the process of managing food security. To reduce vulnerability to global food prices, some Arab countries particularly the GCC - have sought to acquire land and fishing rights in other countries. Typical arrangement involves securing land in the host country with production exclusively destined to the investing country. Some have raised issues about sovereignty and the exploitation of poor countries which hardly have enough to feed their own people, especially during shortages. To allay these concerns, Qatar has for example targeted well developed countries where poverty and food deficiency are not a serious issue.
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4.5.4. REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

The cultural and linguistic ties that uniquely characterize the Arab region can be leveraged to pool human, financial and natural resources to synergize developmental efforts and reduce vulnerability to the potentially debilitating impacts of climate change on water resources. This can be achieved in the form of a regional economic bloc that minimize trade barriers and facilitates free movement of people, goods and capital. Water poor Arab countries can adopt trade policies that give preference to imports of water intensive goods from Arab countries with more favorable water, soil and human resources to maintain viable agriculture. Amounting to a regional virtual water market, such arrangement could allay concerns of Arab countries of relying on foreign food imports to achieve food security, while contributing to economic growth of fellow Arab countries. Akin to the European Union, a prospective Arab Union can through liberating labor laws and facilitating movement of labor among Arab countries ease economic and social shocks that could be triggered by climate change instigated droughts or floods.
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5. P OLICY O PTIONS AND KEY MESSAGES

Water scarcity is a wide-reaching problem that is presenting and will continue to present serious challenges to socio-economic development in the Arab region. Along with other stressors including population growth and changes in land use and social values, climate change will exacerbate the already precarious high water deficit across the Arab region. Climate change is also expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme flooding events. The impact of these grim projections can however be moderated or avoided if countries at regional, national and community levels take stock of the main challenges and opportunities and adopt long term adaptation strategies to deal with these challenges. In the previous sections we have identified key challenges and explored several adaption options to deal with them. Pulling it all together we propose the following policy options that we believe would help the region be better prepared for impending climatic changes and achieve a more sustainable management of water resources. Cost is a key factor in adaption decision making. Box 6.4 presents an overview of marginal cost curves for water resources development in individual Arab countries as prepared by World Bank (2011). These curves can be used to gauge availability and cost effectiveness of selected adaptation measures in Arab countries.
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5.1. UPHOLD THE IWRM PRINCIPLES

In setting out plans for the future, decision makers should not lose sight of striking a balance among the three pillars of IWRM: economic efficiency, social equity and environmental protection. Leaning towards one side at the expense of others would reduce sustainability of water resources and exacerbate the vulnerability of communities dependent on them to climatic changes.
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5.2. INTEGRATE WATER MANAGEMENT ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTORS

Water demand is largely determined outside the realm of departments responsible for water resources management. Considering also that water scarcity is the main constraint of socioeconomic development in the region, water should be addressed as an integral and a high priority component in national development strategies. There should be clear directives for optimal allocation of water across all sectors. The focus on improving water use efficiency in each sector individually may not be sufficient, as some sectors may simply expand use to take advantage of saved water which would have much higher value in other sectors. Water issues should therefore be championed and coordinated at the highest levels.
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5.3. DEVELOP STORAGE AND CONVEYANCE CAPACITY

Notwithstanding the central role of demand side management, Arab countries should develop adequate storage and conveyance capacity to secure minimum level of supplies during extended droughts which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity under climatic changes. This strategy is particularly crucial for the least developing countries such as Somalia and Mauritania and Comoros - which are extremely vulnerable to rainfall variability. Countries which have already developed most of their storage potential should seek to establish flexible operation and allocation policies capable of curtailing agricultural use and non-critical uses in favor of domestic and strategic industrial use during water short periods.
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5.4. IMPROVE WATER EFFICIENCY ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTORS

Considering the high opportunity cost of water, efficiency should be integrated in all water uses across different sectors. Efficiency measures have costs. Pricing provides the incentive for implementing efficiency measures and the mechanism to recuperate costs of water services and compensate for opportunity costs.
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5.5. DIVERSIFY ECONOMY AWAY FROM WATER INTENSIVE SECTORS

Arab countries should have a long term strategy to reduce dependency on water intensive economic sectors. Agriculture as the largest and least value water user is addressed in the next section. Industries and services that demand large water supplies should either be made more water efficient, or phased out and replaced with imported goods and services. Making these decisions require reliable assessment of water opportunity costs.
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5.6. REFORM THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Water is excessively squandered in the agricultural sector across the region even in countries which face chronic water shortages. This problem can be partially resolved through improving water efficiency. However a fundamental change in agricultural policies is required to decrease water allocations to agriculture and increase water productivity and per capita income of farmers. This challenging objective will be likely achieved through proper pricing, changing cropping patterns, modernizing agricultural practices, reducing dependency on manual labor and the ultimate reduction of size of labor force in agriculture. Consequently these changes need to be part of a long-term national development strategy that includes helping farmers relocate to more productive sectors through education, training and financial support.
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5.7. IMPROVE WATER GOVERNANCE

Arab countries need to address deficiencies in water governance which hamper efforts to improve water management. The focus should be on enhancing accountability and transparency through establishing clear mandates, authorities and responsibilities of different institutions.
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5.8. INVEST IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, MONITORING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

Given the central role of water on socio-economic development, Arab countries need to develop their capacity in research and development with respect to water and climate change issues. Arab
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countries should place high priority to invest in data monitoring and information management a prerequisite for conducting research and policy analysis.
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5.9. PURSUE COOPERATION ON MANAGING SHARED WATER RESOURCES

Arab countries should seek cooperation on shared water resources. Quite often, political tension stands in the way of more sustainable management of the water resources. Consequently rapprochement and improving political relations has great dividends not only in the numerous economic, social and security benefits, but also in facilitating better management of shared water resources.
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5.10.
PROTECT WATER RESOURCES AND REHABILITATE
WATER ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

There is an urgent need to protect water resources and rehabilitate damaged ecosystems after years of misuse and disregard of environmental issues. There is a value in the Western environmental regulatory model, where environmental agencies have the mandate to oversee water resources developments and veto their implementation if they are deemed risky to public health or potentially damaging to natural environments.
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5.11.
ACHIEVE FOOD SECURITY THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION
OF OPTIONS
Food security should not be managed exclusively through trying to achieve food self-sufficiency. A more balanced approach calls for diversification of food sources including in addition to local food production, developing strategic reserves, trade, and investment in countries where cropping conditions are more favorable. Arab countries with strong financial resources could invest in food production in the few Arab countries such as Sudan - where human and natural resources are more favorable for farming.
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5.12.
ENHANCE REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
Arab countries should seek a form of economic integration that facilitates free movement of people, goods and capital. This would both facilitate more efficient utilization of water resources across the region, and mitigate the impact of socio-economic shocks triggered by severe droughts or massive flooding disasters that are likely to become more frequent under climate change.
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6.1. IS WATER SUBSTITUTABLE?

Water is key for the survival of all forms of life on earth. Consequently in water policy discourse water is considered unsubstitutable. However this obscures the fact that only a small fraction of water is used for basic human needs, and that many of water functions can be replaced or enhanced to reduce water input. For example water efficient toilets and faucets can considerably reduce water use and conceptually substitute for the function of saved water. Dry toilets totally substitute the function of water as an excreta carrier. At the local level the food production and manufacturing functions of water can be substituted through importing rather than producing water intensive services, manufactures and commodities. Also given good financial standing and adequate management of environmental impacts, coastal regions can desalinate seawater to meet their vital water requirements. The lesson to learn here is that the economic value of water should not be exempted from the larger issues of socio-economic development. The fact that water can be substituted through enhancing water efficiency, importing virtual water or desalination underscores that water has a real and economic value related to the cost of these measures - that needs to be reflected in national water strategies. Otherwise, the scarce water resources in the region will continue to be squandered in low value uses, seeking elusive food self-sufficiency or provision of social welfare in the form of agricultural subsidies. Many policy advisors object to these notions contending that relinquishing of agricultural subsidies and pricing of water may open the door to
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relinquishing rights established through historic use - of shared water resources and loss of security. However, these concerns should be addressed by negotiating agreements on shared water resources to secure access to water resources which can be then managed more productively.
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6.2. CONSUMING VS. USING WATER

Water is distinctive in that its use at one point does not necessarily preclude further use of it by another. For example, a large part of the water used in showering and bathing may find its way back to the water resources system through drainage and treatment. Even leakage from a domestic water supply network can recharge local aquifers. Obviously, water may, and mostly, do not return in the same quality it was delivered with. In comparison to water lost in evaporation or drainage to saline water bodies, this water is not retrievable and is considered consumed in the water resources lingo. For example, water lost in evapotranspiration in agriculture is consumed and is not available for further use. This brings another point of significance with respect to water efficiency in agriculture. Increased water efficiency in agriculture relates to producing more crops per drop, which does not preclude losses to evapotranspiration or the tendency to increase agricultural area to make use of additional water saved in water efficiency practices. The net result however may mean less water available for downstream users. As water returns from agricultural, which is considered a waste are reduced due to increasing water efficiency and consequently reduces available for downstream users who are either domestic or agricultural users on the same watercourse. This is particularly a contentious issue in shared water resources, where agricultural practices in upstream countries geared toward improving water efficiency has the net effect of reducing water, and reducing the quality, available for downstream countries. A case of point is in between Syria and Turkey and one between Syria and Jordan.
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6.3. A CAVEAT: IMPROVING IRRIGATION EFFICIENCY MAY INTENSIFY WATER SCARCITY

Although irrigation efficiency is widely promoted as a solution to reducing water consumption, it can in the absence of proper accounting of water balance result in depleting water resources. Improving efficiency through lining and drip irrigation reduce recharge to underlying aquifers. Ward and Pulido-Velazquez (2008) have found that programs designed to improve irrigation efficiency in the Rio-Grande basin shared between the US and Mexico have increased crop yield at the expense of increasing evapotranspiration and reducing recharge to aquifers. They propose that irrigation efficiency initiatives should be conducted in an integrated manner that takes full account of the water balance throughout the whole watershed. These findings are particularly important in assessing impact of irrigation practices in shared aquifers and basin. For example, improving irrigation efficiency in the Turkish side of the Euphrates could have negative consequences on groundwater levels in downstream Syria.
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6.4. WATER MARGINAL COST CURVES

In drafting adaption strategies, decision makers require a good understanding of the availability and cost effectiveness of alternative adaptation measures. These variables are highly dependent on several factors including water scarcity, sectoral distribution of water use, energy cost, and access to technology. The cost and availability of alternative measures and their ranking can be intuitively represented using marginal cost curves. In a marginal cost curve, measures are represented by bars ranked progressively higher in cost. The base and height of a given bar represent the volume availability, and the cost per unit volume of the corresponding measure, respectively. World Bank (2011) produced a set of water marginal cost curves for most Arab countries. The study considered nine adaption options and assessed their costs in year 2030 as indicated in Table 6. Marginal cost curves in bar and cumulative formats for each Arab country are shown in Figure 10, Figure 11, Figure 12, Figure 13 and Figure 14. The results show that the majority of Arab countries have already exhausted water supplies that can be procured at relatively low costs.
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Table 6. Cost of water adaptation measures
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Figure 10. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011)).
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Assaf, H. (2009). A Hydro-economic Model for Managing Groundwater Resources in Semiarid regions. In: Brebbia, C.A. and Popov, V. (Eds.) Water Resources Management V, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 125, WIT Press, Southampton, pp. 85-96. Assaf, H., and M. Saadeh (2008). Assessing water quality management options in the Upper Litani Basin, Lebanon, using an integrated GIS-based decision support system. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23, 1327-1337. Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds. (2008). Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp. Breisinger, C. , Rheenen, T.V., Ringler, C., Pratt, A.N., Minot, N., Aragon, C., Yu, B., Ecker, O., and Zhu, T. (210). Food Security and Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Current State and Future Perspectives. International Food Policy Research Institute. Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D. (2009). Climate change and water resources managementA federal perspective. U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331. Bushnak, A. A. (2010). Desalination. Chapter 8 of the Arab Forum for Environment & Development (AFED) report Water: Sustainable Management of a Scarce Resource. Edited by M. El-Ashry, N. Saab and B. Zeitoon. Cap-Net (2009), IWRM as a tool for adaptation to Climate Change, Training Manual and Facilitators Guide. International network for Capacity Building in Integrated Water Resources, UNDP. Chebaane, M., El-Naser, H., Fitch, J., Hijazi, A., and Jabbarin, A. (2004). Participatory groundwater management in Jordan: Development and analysis of options. Groundwater: from development to management. Hydrogeology Journal. 12:1432. Choukr-Allah, R. (2010). Wastewater treatment and reuse.Chapter 7 of the Arab Forum for Environment & Development (AFED) report Water: Sustainable Management of a Scarce Resource. Edited by M. El-Ashry, N. Saab and B. Zeitoon. Collier, P., Conway, G. and Venables, T. (2008). Climate Change and Africa. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(2): 334-353. Conway, D. (2005).From headwater tributaries to international river: Observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin. Global Environmental Change, 15:99-114.
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Cullen, H.M., Kaplan, A., Arkin, P.A., and Demenocal, P.B. (2002). Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle Eastern climate and streamflow. Climatic Change, 55, 315338. Cullen, H.M. and deMenocal, P.B. (2000). North Atlantic influence on Tigris-Euphrates streamflow. International Journal of Climatology. 20 (8), 853-863. Dawoud, M. (2009). Strategic water reserve: new approach for old Concept in GCC Countries. The 5th World Water Forum (AWF5) "Bridging Divides for Water", Istanbul, Turkey, 16-22 March, 2009. DGH Rabat (2002). Analysis of the case study on the drink water supply in Rabat-Casablanca coastal area. Forum Progress Towards Water Demand Management in the Mediterranean Region, Plan Bleu For the Mediterranean Centre of Regional Activities, 3-5 October 2002, Fiuggi, Italy . Dorward, A. (2011). Getting real about food prices. Future Agricultures Consortium. Dyer, P.D. (2008). Demography in the Middle East: Implications and Risks. Transnational Trends: Middle Eastern and Asian Views. Edited by Amit Pandya and Ellen Laipson. Stimson Center. ESCWA (2010). Shared Water Resources Management. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), New York. ESCWA (2009). Shared waters shared opportunities, transboundary waters in the ESCWA region. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), New York. ESCWA (2005). Regional cooperation between countries in the management of shared water resources: case studies of some countries in the ESCWA region. E/ESCWA/SDPD/2005/15. Evans, J.P. (2009). 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Climatic Change (2009) 92:417432. Evans, J.P., Smith, R.B., and Oglesby, R.J. (2004). Middle East climate simulation and dominant precipitation processes. International Journal of Climatology, 24(13): 16711694. Gijsbers, P.J.A. and Loucks, D.P. (1999). Libyas choices: Desalination or the Great Man-Made River Project. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, 24(4): 385389.
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Saadeh, M. (2008). Seawater Intrusion in Greater Beirut, Lebanon. In Climatic Changes and Water Resources in the Middle East and North Africa (Eds. F. Zereini and H. Htzl). Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Sadek, M.F., Shahin, M.M., and Stigter, C.J. (1997). Evaporation from the reservoir of the High Aswan Dam, Egypt: a new comparison of relevant methods with limited data. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 56, 57-66. Stephan, R.M. (2010). Trans-boundary Water Resources. Chapter 10 of the Arab Forum for Environment & Development (AFED) report Water: Sustainable Management of a Scarce Resource. Edited by M. El-Ashry, N. Saab and B. Zeitoon. Sivapragasam, C., Vasudevan, G., Maran, J., Bose, C., Kaza, S., and Ganesh, N. (2009). Modeling evaporation-seepage losses for reservoir water balance in semi-arid regions. Water Resources Management 23(5):853867. Sowers, J. and Weinthal, E. (2010). Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities. Working paper No. 2, The Dubai Initiative. Subah, A. and Margane, A. (2010). Water Resources Protection in Jordan. Workshop 5: Management of Groundwater Abstraction and Pollution. World Water Week, Stockholm, Sweden (September 2010). Syvitski, J.P.M. (2008). Deltas at risk. Sustainability Science. 3, 23-32. Taylor, P. , Okail, N. and Achy, L. (2011). Perceptions from research organisations in the MENA region of their capacity for organizational adaptiveness and research management. Draft Report to International Development Research Centre (IDRC). Saab, N.W. (2009), Arab public opinion and climate change. Chapter 1 of the Arab Forum for Environment & Development (AFED) report Climate change: Impact of climate change on Arab countries. Edited by M.K. Tolba and N. Saab. Ueda, S. and Benouahi, M. (2009). Accountable Water and Sanitation Governance: Japans Experience. In Water in the Arab world: Management Perspectives and Innovations Middle East and North Africa, Edited by N. Vijay Jagannathan, Ahmed Shawk y Mohamed, Alexander Kremer. World Bank, Washington, DC. USAID (1997). Lake Manzala Engineered Wetland. Project document prepared by the Tennessee Valley Authority.
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8. A NNEX
8.1. ANNEX 1: GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Adaptation is defined by the IPCC as:
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ADAPTATION
. . . adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has been widely adopted as a balanced approach for managing water resources not only to achieve economic efficiency, but also to support social equity and environmental sustainability. More recently the IWRM is advocated as an ideal tool for climate change adaptation (Cap-Net 2009). A score based proxy could be used to assess the level of commitment and implementation of IWRM. Adversity characterized by probability of occurrence.
IWRM
RISK
Water management includes both water resource management and water services. Water resource management involves storing and diverting surface water (rivers, lakes), managing extraction of groundwater, protecting against flooding, ensuring that water is of acceptable quality, and ensuring that an appropriate quantity and quality of water is available for environmental functions. The benefits of these activities are largely public. Water services include transport, hydropower, water supply, wastewater collection and treatment, irrigation, and drainage. The benefits of water services are largely private. (World Bank (2007).) Water sector is defined as the public and private institutions that are responsible for water resources management, irrigation, water supply, and sanitation. (World Bank (2007).)
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8.2. ANNEX 2: PRELIMINARY OUTLINE OF CHAPTER

This original chapter outline was developed and agreed upon by the authors in January 2011, at a workshop in Lebanon jointly prepared by the League of Arab States and the World Bank. 1) Introduction This section sets the stage by discussing the unique situation of the Arab region not only as currently the globally most water deficient by also where water supplies dwindling as a result of climatic changes, deterioration in quality and competition from upstream countries are lacking in meeting growing demand fueled by explosive growth in population, consumption per capita and irrigation requirements. 2) Projected impacts of climate change on water resources in the Arab region (2 pages) This section provides an overview of the projected climate change impact on water resources based on recent assessment studies conducted by regional and international researchers. 3) Main challenges to managing water resources Discussion of the main challenges facing the Arab region in current management of water resources and how they will evolve under changing climate a. Water scarcity and high variability b. High and rapidly growing water demand. c. Dependency on shared water resources d. Deterioration of water quality e. Mining of strategic groundwater reserves f. Socio-economic dependency on agriculture g. Food security h. Increased frequency of extreme flooding events i. Sustainability of water environmental services j. Sustainable socio-economic development k. Achievement of MDGs l. Poor public awareness of water issues e.g. prevalence of culture of water abundance. 4) Assessment of water resources management in the region This section provides an overview of how Arab countries are currently dealing with water resources challenges as presented above. In addition of focusing on shared issues and approaches among Arab countries, this section will also highlight the different priorities and settings of Arab countries that have shaped their responses to water issues. a. Factors influencing responses to water resources issues b. Water supply infrastructure c. Demand management
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d. e. f. g. h.
Water allocation Water governance Wastewater reuse Protection of water resources Desalination
5) Adaptation options As indicated in a previous section, there is a multitude of challenges that need to be addressed in managing water resources in a changing climate. Adaptation should be ideally a portfolio of measures in the water sector and water using sectors. Portfolios should be designed uniquely for each country to reflect specific socio-economic settings and priorities. Following is a list of the measures that will be discussed in the section. a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. j. k. l. m. n. o. p. q. r. Application of the principles of integrated water resources management (IWRM) Data collection and monitoring Development of storage and conveyance capacity Pricing of water to reflect its real value with consideration to political and cultural issues and the welfare of the less privileged sectors of the society. Reduce energy subsidies to reduce mining of groundwater. Reduce losses in water networks Water reallocation to more productive sectors Water governance Protection of water resources including instating of laws and regulations of environmental laws and establishment of special law enforcement unit. Desalination research and development and consideration of using of renewable energy to reduce cost and reduce impact on environment. Enhancement of water resources through rain harvesting and recharge of aquifers. Agricultural and food security policies focus on reducing dependency on agriculture. Agreements on shared water resources Improvement of water use efficiency. Wastewater reuse. Regional integration Research and development Management of extreme flooding events - flood emergency preparedness and awareness, flood zoning and forecasting systems.
6) Case studies Case studies preferably one from each of the four identified sub-regions is presented briefly. - Recharge dams in Saudi Arabia. - Water management of the Nile basin 7) Conclusion and summary
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Managing water resources under a changing climate

A working outline of this paper can be found in Annex 2

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Managing water resources under a changing climate 6.4. 7. 8.

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Water marginal cost curves ..................................................................................................... 65

1. I NTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

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128 129 130

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2. P ROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER

134 135 136

2.1. BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONS CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES

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2.2. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

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197 198 199 200

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230 231 232

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233 234 235

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236 237 238 239 240 241 242

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3. M AIN CHALLENGES TO MA NAGING WATER RESOURCES

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3.1. SCARCITY, HIGH VARIABILITY AND UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF WATER RESOURCES

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3.2. POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION

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3.3. HIGH AGRICULTURAL WATER USE

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3.4. DEPLETION OF STRATEGIC GROUNDWATER RESERVES

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3.5. HIGH DEPENDENCY ON SHARED WATER RESOURCES

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