Oil Companies International Marine Forum

OCIMF mathematical model helps members make better decisions on CO2

In a bid to limit climate change, parties to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun committed to control emissions of greenhouse gases in order to achieve a maximum global average temperature rise of 2C. As governments and international bodies take action to deliver on this policy goal, attention is turning to marine emissions. Historically, shipping has been the most energy efficient form of transport, contributing only about 2.7% of global CO2 emissions despite carrying some 90% of world trade. But as other forms of transport reduce their carbon intensity and the amount of fuel consumed by shipping continues to grow in line with demand, it is clear that the marine sector must play its part in improving energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gases. To help shipowners, operators and regulators make decisions on measures to reduce carbon intensity, OCIMF has developed a way to model future CO2 emissions from oil tankers so that the impact of new regulations, operating practices, ship designs and technologies can be assessed. What is the CO2 Trajectory Prediction Model? The model is a pragmatic methodology for predicting realistic future emissions from shipping. It differs from other marine emission models because it is based on historical data relating to actual fuel consumption on voyages, modified by those operational variables such as speed that affect fuel efficiency and hence CO2 production. Other models commonly use the reported installed power of vessel engines as the basis for their calculations, but this simplified approach can embed systematic errors.

4.0 3.5 3.0

CO2 emissions

Comparison of emission trajectories for VLCCs indicative results

Trajectory model most likely (50%) DNV Technical and operational improvements DNV proposed targets GHG Study 2009 maximum GHG Study 2009 minimum

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Put simply, the OCIMF model calculates future CO2 emissions by multiplying together projections for emission efficiency (CO2 per unit of work) and total work load. It uses Monte Carlo probabilistic simulations to give a most likely trajectory, together with upper and lower bounds. In this way the model can provide insights into the potential impact of different ship designs and technologies as well as proposed regulations and new operating practices like Virtual Arrival.

A voice for safety

OCIMF mathematical model helps members make better decisions on CO2

Comparison of recorded and calculated CO2 emissions from 53 VLCCs with 1998 baseline

Measured Trajectory Model Upper Bound (90%) Trajectory Model Most likely (50%) Trajectory Model Lower Bound (10%)

CO2 emissions 1996

1998

2000

2002 Year

2004

2006

2008

2010

Comparison of recorded and calculated CO2 emissions from 53 VLCCs has shown the model to be in good agreement with measured emissions.

Developed to help OCIMF members make better decisions on CO2, this unique model has been established and validated only for oil tankers. But it could equally well be applied to other vessel types such as bulk carriers, container ships and LNG vessels. What are the benefits? The Model provides valuable information for both the shipping industry and regulators in a number of areas. In particular:

It enables shipowners and operators to analyse What if? scenarios to assist fleet planning. For example, if I invest in waste heat recovery, what will be the payback in emissions reduction? It provides emissions trajectories from oil shipping based on actual industry data reflecting operational realities. It can be used to evaluate, compare and rank the true effectiveness of individual emission-reducing measures and look at the effect of combinations of measures

to see where trade-offs exist for example, the extent to which speed reduction reduces the impact of waste heat recovery. It quantifies the time lag between the introduction of mitigating technologies and their impact on actual emissions. With average lifetimes of some 25 years, it can take 10 years before low-emission innovations such as improved hull designs have any significant impact on emissions. It allows hindcasting, so users can set an emissions target and model the steps they would have to take to achieve it. It gives a picture of the impact of proposed legislation on emissions from ships. For example, the impact of different technologies for ballast water treatment can be assessed as part of the selection process. If Market Based Measures such as emissions trading or bunker levies are introduced, the model can help shipowners and operators make

commercial decisions on operating practices and investment in emissions reduction technologies. Validation The model and its associated methodology have been thoroughly tested and reviewed by University College London, who suggested a number of improvements. These have now been included in a revised version which is being assessed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology. To find out more about the CO2 Trajectory Prediction Model, visit www.ocimf.com or email enquiries@ocimf.com

Oil Companies International Marine Forum, 29 Queen Annes Gate, London SW1H 9BU, United Kingdom T +44 (0) 20 7654 1200 F +44 (0) 20 7654 1205 enquiries@ocimf.com www.ocimf.com