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The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.
6.2
2014f
ADO 2013 1.2 1.4 ADO 2013 Update 1.8 2.4 1.2 1.4
Euro area
Japan
Note: The US rebased national accounts data in July 2013, resulting in a much higher 2012 growth rate and rendering ADO 2013 forecasts incomparable with the forecasts for the Update.
2014f 2012
2013f
ADO ADOU
2014f
ADO ADOU
South Asia
India Pakistan Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam
5.1
5.0 4.4 6.4 5.6 6.2 5.6 6.8 1.3 6.5 5.2
5.7
6.0 3.6 6.8 5.4 6.4 5.3 6.0 2.6 4.9 5.2
4.7
4.7 3.6 6.8 4.9 5.7 4.3 7.0 2.6 3.8 5.2
6.2
6.5 3.5 7.2 5.7 6.6 5.5 5.9 3.7 5.0 5.6
5.5
5.7 3.0 7.2 5.3 6.0 5.0 6.1 3.5 4.9 5.5
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic East Asia PRC Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Taipei,China The Pacific Fiji Papua New Guinea
5.6
5.0 -0.9 6.5 7.7 1.5 2.0 1.3 7.5 2.2 9.8
5.5
5.2 5.5 7.1 8.2 3.5 2.8 3.5 5.2 2.0 5.5
5.4
4.8 7.5 6.6 7.6 3.2 2.8 2.3 5.2 2.8 5.5
6.0
5.6 4.5 7.1 8.0 3.8 3.7 3.9 5.5 2.3 6.0
6.0
5.6 4.5 6.6 7.4 3.8 3.5 3.3 5.5 2.4 6.0
10
8 6 4 2 0
10.1
9.3
4.9
Note: Total social financing represents the total fundraising by PRC non-state entities. Sources: People's Bank of China, Asian Development Bank staff estimates.
Centre
State
2005-06
2009-10
2013-14 Est.
Impact of PRC growth slowing by 1 percentage point on the rest of developing Asia, 20072012a
-0.02 -0.17 -0.14 -0.10
-0.25
South Asia
but two giants slower growth will not hobble rest of Asias growth
% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2012 Developing Asia f = forecast
10
2012
6.5 6.6 6.6
2013f
2014f
7.5
5.6 4.9
5.3
5.2
5.5
4
2 0 Central Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia The Pacific
f = forecast
11
HKG
INO
KOR
MAL
PHI
SIN
TAP
THA
HKG=Hong Kong, China; INO=Indonesia; KOR=Rep. of Korea; MAL=Malaysia; PHI=Philippines; SIN=Singapore; TAP=Taipei,China; THA=Thailand.
12
2.0
1.8
1.9 1.6
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 f = forecast 2011 2012 2013f 2014f
13
90
120
80
14
Inflation, 20102014
5.9 ADO 2013 ADO 2013 Update 4.0 3.7 3.6 4.2 3.7
4.4
10 8 6
CAM KAZ HKG TAJ 2012 average = 3.7% LAO PAK
4 2 0 -2
GEO TAP KOR THA MAL SIN
PHI AZE
PRC
16
PRC
South Africa Indonesia -20 -10 0 10 Week of 22 MayWeek of 28 Aug Week of 28 AugWeek of 25 Sep
17
with India and Indonesia hit hard due to widening current account deficits
Current account balance, % of GDP
China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei,China Thailand Viet Nam Developing Asia -15 -10 -5 0 2007 5 2012 10 15 20 25 30
18
aFor
India, latest figures are compared with 1991 , not 1997. Fiscal data is for central and state governments. 1996 current account as % of GDP data for the Peoples Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; India; Malaysia; Philippines; Tha iland; and Viet Nam. c2012Q4 data for Viet Nam; 2013Q1 data for Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Malaysia; and Philippines. dRefers to June 2013 except for Viet Nam (May); Hong Kong, China; and Malaysia (July); India; Indonesia; and Taipei,China (August).
bAnnual
19
Latin America
20
21