BUSINESS SCHOOL

TPTM6495
Analysis Tools for Transport and Logistics
Semester One, 2012
Practice Exam Answers (30%)

Time: 2 hours

This exam is worth 30 percent of your final grade. You have two hours to complete
the exam. Once you enter the room you will not be allowed to leave until the end of
the exam unless accompanied by a supervisor.
Instructions
1. This exam comprises of a total of 17 pages.
2. For this exam you may bring:
a. A double sided piece of A4 paper.
b. Writing implements.
c. A nonprogrammable calculator (helpful).
3. No other items will be allowed in the room.
4. Ensure that your mobile phone is switched off and is not on your desk.
5. Only answers completed in this booklet will be marked.
6. The exam is out of 100. 20 multiple choice questions worth two marks each (40
marks in total) and 3 short answer questions worth 20 marks each (60 marks in
total).
The multiple choice questions will be marked according to the following
framework:

Two marks for a correct answer.

Zero marks for a blank answer.
You will lose a mark for a question that you answer but get incorrect.

Failure to comply with these instructions will

result in a mark of zero being recorded.

PRACTICE EXAM
Section A.
Multiple Choice Questions (20 questions worth 2 marks each).
Circle the correct answer.
1. What is a type I error?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Not rejecting the null when the null is false

Rejecting the null when the null is false
Rejecting the null when the null is true
Not rejecting the alternative when the alternative is false
None of the above

2. A real estate agent sells a house for $520,000, but on average houses, in the area sell for
$845,000 with a standard deviation of $220,000. What is the standardised (Z) score for the
sale price of the house?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

1.877
1.477
-1.877
-1.477
None of the above

3. For children between the ages of 18 months and 29 months, there is approximately a linear
relationship between height and age. The relationship can be represented by:
Y = 64.93 + 0.63(x), where Y represents height (in centimetres) and X represents age (in
months). Joseph is 22.5 months old and is 80 centimetres tall. What is Josephs residual?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

79.1
-0.9
+0.9
56.6
64.93

4. For children, there is approximately a linear relationship between height and age. One
child was measured monthly. Her height was 75 cm at 3 years of age and 85 cm when she
was measured 18 months later. A line was fit to her data. The slope of this line is
approximately:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

0.55 cm/month
10 cm/month
25 cm/month
1.57 cm/month
2.1 cm/month

5. Preference for mode of transport (where commuters are required to place car, bus and
train in order of most preferred to least preferred) is an example of what kind of data?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Nominal
Normal
Ratio
Ordinal
Interval
Page 2

PRACTICE EXAM
6. There is an approximate linear relationship between the height of females and their age
(from 5 to 18 years) described by:
height = 50.3 + 6.01(age)
Where height is measured in cm and age in years. Which of the following is not correct?
a. The estimated height of a child who is 10 years old is about 110 cm.
b. The estimated intercept is 50.3 cm which implies that children reach this height
when they are 50.3/6.01=8.4 years old.
c. The average height of children when they are 5 years old is about 50% of the
average height when they are 18 years old.
d. My niece is about 8 years old and is about 115 cm tall. She is taller than average.
e. On average, children between 5 and 18 grow 6.01 cm per year.
7. In hypothesis test, the null hypothesis is:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Always false.
A change from the accepted state.
Never accepted.
Results in something dying.
Defines the current state of nature.

8. What is the standard deviation for the following number range?

4
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

4
1

1
1

1
7

4
7

1
0

1
6

1
7

3
2

36

14.6
14.8
10.8
11.1
None of the above

9. Which of the following are properties of ratio data?

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Additive
Divisable
Fixed zero point
All of the above
None of the above

10. Boxplots are useful in identifying?

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Intervals
Medians
Homoskedasticity
Multicolinearity
None of the above

Page 3

PRACTICE EXAM
11. Elasticities can be calculated by using what model form?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Multiplicative model
Exponential model
Quadratic model
All of the above
None of the above

12. Where will the maximum value of the object function occur for the following linear
programming model, if the objective function is P = 5x + 7y?

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Point
Point
Point
Point
Point

A
B
C
D
E

13. A problem has 3 decision variables and 5 constraints. How many basic variables are used
to solve this problem?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

3
5
8
2
None of the above

14. Linear programming operates under deterministic assumptions. What does this mean?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Values
Values
Values
Values
Values

of outputs are known with certainty.

of inputs are known with certainty.
of inputs are unknown.
of outputs are unknown.
represent a unique solution.

15. The correct correlation statistic for non-normal data is what?

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Pearson
Spearman
R-squared
Chi-squared
None of the above

Page 4

PRACTICE EXAM
16. Data analysis is the process of:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Running statistical models

Making recommendations
Answering questions
Creating a set of facts with meaning
Making educated guesses

17. Which of the following is not affected by outliers:

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Mean
Mode
Standard Deviation
All of the above
None of the above

18. If 65% of the data is plus or minus one standard deviation, the data has what sort of
distribution?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Normal
Poisson
Binomial
Exponential
Not enough information to tell

19. Consider the following crosstab (with a Chi-Square of 12.831, sig. = 0.005) where the
researcher looked at the amount of speed at which a package is delivered using various
methods.

Quick
Slow

Bike
57%
43%

Car
75%
25%

Truck
50%
50%

Which of the below statements is most correct?

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

There
There
There
There
There

is
is
is
is
is

no significant relationship between delivery speed and delivery mode

a significant relationship between delivery speed and car
a significant relationship and using a car provides quick delivery speed
a significant relationship and quick delivery speed result in a car being used
a significant relationship, but there is no difference between truck and bike

20. Which of the following is not an assumption of regression analysis?

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Normality of the error

Constant variance
Linearity
Normality of the dependent variable
All of the above

- THIS IS THE FINAL QUESTION FOR SECTION A -

Page 5

PRACTICE EXAM
Section B.
Short Answer Questions (3 questions worth 20 marks each).
Answer in the space provided
Question 1
a. What is aggregation bias? Give your own example of when this might be a problem. (4
marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
b. What is the problem with extrapolation in regression analysis? (4 marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................

Page 6

PRACTICE EXAM
c. What is homoskedasticity? (4 marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
d. How would you test for multicollinearity? (4 marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
e. How does dummy coding affect the regression equation? Give an example of this. (4
marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................

Page 7

PRACTICE EXAM
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................

THIS IS ADDITIONAL WRITING SPACE FOR QUESTION 1:

....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................

Page 8

PRACTICE EXAM
Question 2
The Sydney Symphony Orchestra has asked you to examine some of the inventory process
that the organisation uses when dealing with the programs for selected musical performances.
For the orchestra, the sale of concert programs constitutes a large part of concert revenue and
is critical to the profitability of the Symphony.
As a consultant examining this situation you have collected the following information:
Number of Programs
Sold (in 100's)
23

Number of Times
Sale Level Achieved
18

24

24

25

30

26

42

27

Based on interviews, Sydney Symphony has never sold any less than 2,300 programs or more
than 2,700 programs. Each program costs $0.80 to produce and they sell for $3.00. Any
programs that are not sold are recycled and do not produce any revenue.
a. Explain what technique you would use to examine this problem and why. (6 marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
b. If the orchestra decided to print 2,500 programs for each performance, what would be the
average profits over 10 performances? (5 marks)
Page 9

PRACTICE EXAM
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
c. If the orchestra decided to print 2,600 programs for each performance, what would be the
average profits over 10 performances? (5 marks)

Page 10

PRACTICE EXAM
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
d. How might you improve this analysis and how would you suggestions make it better? (4
marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................

Page 11

PRACTICE EXAM
Question 3
a. Interpret all components of the following sensitivity output (10 marks)

Adjustable Cells
Name
Litres Produced (Red Wine)
Litres Produced (White Wine)

Final Value
200
150

Reduced
Cost
0
0

Objective
Coefficient
700
400

Allowable
Increase
50
15

Allowable
Decrease
10
20

Final Value
200
3640

Shadow
Price
100
50

Constraint
R.H. Side
200
3640

Allowable
Increase
25
70

Allowable
Decrease
25
100

Constraints
Name
Bottling Used
Working Hours Used

....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
Page 12

PRACTICE EXAM
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
Page 13

PRACTICE EXAM
b. The Traffic Bureau have studied the number of accidents at an intersection, and following is
output from a regression model:
Y = Number of Accidents
Numped = Number of pedestrians at crossing
Numcars = Number of cars at intersection
Speedlim = Speed limit at intersection
Weather 0=dry, 1=wet
Lightcol = Colour of light (1=red, 2=yellow, 3=green)

Model Summaryb
Model
1

R
.994a

R Square
.987

Adjusted
R Square
.984

Std. Error of
the Estimate
20.60740

a. Predictors: (Constant), numped, numcars, weather,

lightcol, speedlim
b. Dependent Variable: numacc
ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
614901.3
8068.630
622969.9

df
5
19
24

Mean Square
122980.252
424.665

F
289.594

Sig.
.000a

a. Predictors: (Constant), numped, numcars, weather, lightcol, speedlim

b. Dependent Variable: numacc
Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
numcars
speedlim
lightcol
weather
numped

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
-360.292
29.232
.929
.331
8.088
.882
-12.357
17.513
46.665
9.504
2.312
1.519

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.084
1.014
-.064
.145
.086

t
-12.325
2.802
9.174
-.706
4.910
1.522

Sig.
.000
.011
.000
.489
.000
.144

Collinearity Statistics
Tolerance
VIF
.768
.056
.083
.784
.214

1.303
17.935
12.018
1.276
4.670

a. Dependent Variable: numacc

Page 14

PRACTICE EXAM
Histogram
Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual

Dependent Variable: numacc

Dependent Variable: numacc

8
1.0

0.8

Expected Cum Prob

Frequency

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
-2

Mean =-3.49E-15
Std. Dev. =0.89
N =25

0.0
0.0

Regression Standardized Residual

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

numcars

Observed Cum Prob

speedlim

Scatterplot

lightcol

1.0
0.5

weather

0.0
-0.5
-1.0

numped

Regression Standardized
Residual

Dependent Variable: numacc

1.5

-1.5
-2.0
-2

numcars

speedlim

lightcol

weather

numped

Regression Standardized Predicted Value

a. What might be wrong (if anything) with the model above? (6 marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
Page 15

PRACTICE EXAM
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
b. Interpret the adjusted R-square. (2 marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
c. Which variable has the biggest impact on the number of traffic accidents? Why? (2 marks)
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................

- THIS IS YOUR FINAL QUESTION-

Page 16

PRACTICE EXAM
Additional Space
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
....................................................................................................................................
Page 17