Earthquake in Bangladesh

Earthquake trembling or shaking movement of the earth's surface. Most earthquakes are minor tremors, while larger earthquakes usually begin with slight tremors, rapidly take the form of one or more violent shocks, and end in vibrations of gradually diminishing force called aftershocks. Earthquake is a form of energy of wave motion, which originates in a limited region and then spreads out in all directions from the source of disturbance. It usually lasts for a few seconds to a minute. The point within the earth where earthquake waves originate is called the focus, from where the vibrations spread in all directions. They reach the surface first at the point immediately above the focus and this point is called the epicentre. It is at the epicentre where the shock of the earthquake is first e perienced. !n the basis of the depth of focus, an earthquake may be termed as shallow focus "#$%# km&, intermediate focus "%#$'## km&, and deep focus "( '## km&. The most common measure of earthquake si)e is the *ichter's magnitude "M&. The *ichter scale uses the ma imum surface wave amplitude in the seismogram and the difference in the arrival times of primary "+& and secondary ",& waves for determining magnitude "M&. The magnitude is related to roughly logarithm of energy, E in ergs. Earthquakes originate due to various reasons, which fall into two ma-or categories vi) non$tectonic and tectonic. The origin of tectonic earthquakes is e plained with the help of 'elastic rebound theory'. Earthquakes are distributed unevenly on the globe. .owever, it has been observed that most of the destructive earthquakes originate within two well$defined )ones or belts namely, 'the circum$+acific belt' and 'the Mediterranean$.imalayan seismic belt'. /lthough 0angladesh is e tremely vulnerable to seismic activity, the nature and the level of this activity is yet to be defined. In 0angladesh complete earthquake monitoring facilities are not available. The Meteorological 1epartment of 0angladesh established a seismic observatory at 2hittagong in 3456. This remains the only observatory in the country. /ccurate historical information on earthquakes is very important in evaluating the seismicity of 0angladesh in close coincidences with the geotectonic elements. Information on earthquakes in and around 0angladesh is available for the last 75# years. The earthquake record suggests that since 34## more than 3## moderate to large earthquakes occurred in 0angladesh, out of which more than 85 events occurred after 348#. This brings to light an increased frequency of earthquakes in the last '# years. This increase in earthquake activity is an indication of fresh tectonic activity or propagation of fractures from the ad-acent ,EI,MI2 9!:Es. 0efore the coming of the Europeans, there was no definite record of earthquakes. ;ollowing is a chronology of important earthquakes from 356<. Chronology 356< 3867 388' 3%87 The first recorded earthquake was a terrible one. ,ylhet and 2hittagong were violently shaken, the earth opened in many places and threw up water and mud of a sulphurous smell. More severe damage occurred in ,ylhet district. 0uildings were cracked but there was no loss of life. ,evere earthquake in /,,/M, which continued for half an hour and ,ylhet district was not free from its shock. The great earthquake of /pril 7, which raised the coast of ;oul island by 7.%6m and the northwest coast of 2hedua island by 8.%3m above sea level and also caused a permanent submergence of 355.6# sq km near 2hittagong. The earthquake proved very violent in 1haka and along the eastern bank of the ME=.:/ as far as 2hittagong. In 1haka 5## persons lost their lives, the *I>E*s and JHEELs were agitated and rose high above their usual levels and when they receded their banks were strewn with dead fish. / large river dried up, a tract of land sank and 7## people with all their 2/TT?E were lost. Two volcanoes were said to have opened in the ,itakunda hills. ,evere earthquake in 1haka around /pril 3#, but no loss of life. ,evere earthquake in many places of 0angladesh around May 33. The earthquake proved violent in ,ylhet Terrible shock was felt, during the second earthquake occurred in the winter of 3<85, although no serious damage occurred. @nown as 2achar Earthquake. ,everely felt in ,ylhet but no loss of life. The steeple of the church was shattered, the walls of the courthouse and the circuit bungalow cracked and in the eastern part of the district the banks of many rivers caved in. @nown as the 0engal Earthquake. !ccurred on 36 Auly with %.# magnitude and the epicentre was at Manikgan-. This event was generally associated with the deep$seated Aamuna ;ault. !ccurred on 3# Aanuary with %.5 magnitude and the epicentre at Aaintia .ills. It affected

3%%5 3<37 3<85 3<84 3<<5 3<<4

Earthquake in Bangladesh
3<4% ,ylhet town and surrounding areas. @nown as the =reat India Earthquake with a magnitude of <.% and epicentre at ,hillong +lateau. The great earthquake occurred on 37 Aune at 5.35 pm, caused serious damage to masonry buildings in ,ylhet town where the death toll rose to 565. This was due to the collapse of the masonry buildings. The tremor was felt throughout 0engal, from the south ?ushai .ills on the east to ,hahbad on the west. In Mymensingh, many public buildings of the district town, including the Austice .ouse, were wrecked and very few of the two$storied brick$built houses belonging to 9/MI:1/*s survived. .eavy damage was done to the bridges on the 1haka$Mymensingh railway and traffic was suspended for about a fortnight. The river communication of the district was seriously affected "0*/.M/+BT*/&. ?oss of life was not great, but loss of property was estimated at five million *upees. *a-shahi suffered severe shocks, especially on the eastern side, and 35 persons died. In 1haka damage to property was heavy. In Tippera masonry buildings and old temples suffered a lot and the total damage was estimated at *s 4,###. @nown as the ,rimangal Earthquake. !ccurred on 3< Auly with a magnitude of %.8 and epicentre at ,rimangal, Maulvi 0a)ar. Intense damage occurred in ,rimangal, but in 1haka only minor effects were observed. @nown as the 1hubri Earthquake. !ccurred on ' Auly with a magnitude of %.3 and the epicentre at 1hubri, /ssam. The earthquake caused ma-or damage in the eastern parts of *angpur district. @nown as the 0ihar$:epal Earthquake. !ccurred on 35 Aanuary with a magnitude of <.' and the epicentre at 1arbhanga of 0ihar, India. The earthquake caused great damage in 0ihar, :epal and Bttar +radesh but did not affect any part of 0angladesh. /nother earhquake occured on ' Auly with a magnitude of %.3 and the epicentre at 1hubri of /ssam, India. The earthquake caused considerable damages in greater *angpur district of 0angladesh. @nown as the /ssam Earthquake. !ccurred on 35 /ugust with a magnitude of <.6 with the epicentre in /ssam, India. The tremor was felt throughout 0angladesh but no damage was reported. !ccurred on 77 :ovember in 2hittagong with a magnitude of 8.#. It caused minor damage around 2hittagong town. !ccurred on 77 Auly at Maheshkhali Island with the epicentre in the same place, a magnitude of 5.7. ,everely felt around Maheshkhali island and the ad-oining ,E/. .ouses cracked and in some cases collapsed. !ccurred on 7% Auly at @olabunia union of 0arkal upa)ila, *angamati district with magnitude 5.3. The time was at #5C3%C78.< hours.

343< 34'# 34'6

1950 1997 1999 2003

Status of earthquakes 0angladesh is surrounded by the regions of high seismicity which include the .imalayan /rc and ,.I??!:= +?/TE/B in the north, the 0urmese /rc, /rakan Doma anticlinorium in the east and comple :aga$1isang$Aaflong thrust )ones in the northeast. It is also the site of the 1auki ;ault system along with numerous subsurface active faults and a fle ure )one called .inge 9one. These weak regions are believed to provide the necessary )ones for movements within the basin area. In the generalised tectonic map of 0angladesh the distribution of epicentres is found to be linear along the 1auki ;ault system and random in other regions of 0angladesh. The investigation of the map demonstrates that the epicentres are lying in the weak )ones comprising surface or subsurface faults. Most of the events are of moderate rank "magnitude 6$8& and lie at a shallow depth, which suggests that the recent movements occurred in the ,E1IME:Ts overlying the basement rocks. In the northeastern region ",B*M/ 0/,I:&, ma-or events are controlled by the 1auki ;ault system. The events located in and around the M/1.B+B* T*/2T also indicate shallow displacement in the faults separating the block from the /??B>IBM. The first seismic )oning map of the subcontinent was compiled by the =eological ,urvey of India in 34'5. The 0angladesh Meteorological 1epartment adopted a seismic )oning map in 34%7. In 34%%, the =overnment of 0angladesh constituted a 2ommittee of E perts to e amine the seismic problem and make appropriate recommendations. The 2ommittee proposed a )oning map of 0angladesh in the same year.

Earthquake in Bangladesh
In the )oning map, 0angladesh has been divided into three generalised seismic )onesC )one$I, )one$II and )one$III. 9one$I comprising the northern and eastern regions of 0angladesh with the presence of the 1auki ;ault system of eastern ,ylhet and the deep seated ,ylhet ;ault, and pro imity to the highly disturbed southeastern /ssam region with the Aaflong thrust, :aga thrust and 1isang thrust, is a )one of high seismic risk with a basic seismic co$efficient of #.#<. :orthern 0angladesh comprising greater *angpur and 1ina-pur districts is also a region of high seismicity because of the presence of the Aamuna ;ault and the pro imity to the active east$west running fault and the Main 0oundary ;ault to the north in India. The 2hittagong$Tripura ;olded 0elt e periences frequent earthquakes, as -ust to its east is the 0urmese /rc where a large number of shallow depth earthquakes originate. 9one$II comprising the central part of 0angladesh represents the regions of recent uplifted +leistocene blocks of the 0arind and Madhupur Tracts, and the western e tension of the folded belt. The 9one$III comprising the southwestern part of 0angladesh is seismically quiet, with an estimated basic seismic co$efficient of #.#6. Mitigation approach The occurrence of earthquakes in an earthquake prone region cannot be prevented. *ather, all that could be done is to make a prediction and issue a warning for minimising loss of life and property. /lthough precise prediction is not always possible, an acceptable valid prediction of an earthquake will certainly minimise the loss of life and property. .owever, as far as 0angladesh is concerned a detailed geological map including the delineation of all crustal faults and lineaments is of prime importance. The /eromagnetic survey of 0angladesh has already provided the pattern and distribution of such faults and lineaments. 0y now the delineation of faults within the Tertiary sections are well established, but the situation within the Euaternary section is quite uncertain. It is evident that Euaternary sediments are affected by various earthquake events in 0angladesh pertaining to uplift, ,B0,I1E:2E, ground deformation and massive liquefaction. ,ince water plays an important role in fault creep and fault slip, a small amount of water can produce an effect on a lubricated surface for fault displacement with a stress drop of only 3# to 3## bars. The earthquake disaster mitigation approach should be followed by "i& pre$disaster physical planning of human settlements, "ii& building measures for minimising the impact of disaster and "iii& management of settlements. F,ifatul Euader 2howdhury and /ftab /lam @hanG Bibliography M. /li and A* 2houdhury, Assessment of seismic hazard in Bangladesh , 1isaster *esearch Training and Management 2entre, 1haka Bniversity, 1haka, 7##3H A* 2houdhury and M. /li, Seismic Zoning of Bangladesh, paper presented in the ,eminar on *ecent 1evelopment Earthquake 1isaster Mitigation, !rganised by IE0 and T/EE, 1haka, 3446H @M .ossain, Tectonic significance and earthquake occurrences in Bangladesh, %th =eological 2onference, 0angladesh =eological ,ociety, 34<4.

How prepared are we for an earthquake? Interview with 1irector of 1isaster +reparedness 2entre
Muhammad Saidur Rahman is Director of Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness Centre, which has een working since !""! in the field of capacity uildingof institutions, go#ernment and non$go#ernment, engaged in disaster management% &he organisation asically does research, policy formulation, strategy formulation etc% 't the moment, it is working on capacity uilding of go#ernment organisation in case an earthquake hits the country% Mr% Rahman is a former college teacher of chemistry% (e has also ser#ed as the deputy secretary general of Bangladesh Red Cross )now Crescent* Society as well as the country director of +,fam% &he inter#iew was taken y -aushik Sankar Das% Daily Star DS!" Bangladesh# used to $e called a country of natural disasters thanks to regular floods# cyclones etc% is recently struck $y a ne& disaster# earthquake# in the coastal area and the hill tracts of 'hittagong though there has not $een much damage% 'ould you tell us ho& (ulnera$le &e actually are in terms of a se(ere earthquake in the country) ,aidur *ahman ",*&C / world famous seismologist +rofessor 0illham said in 7##3 that in the .imalayan region, at least seven earthquakes of the strength <.3 and above on the *ichter scale are overdue. / team of e perts led by him did a survey and they identified seven to eight risk prone countries and 0angladesh is obviously one of them because of its geographical location. ,econdly a study by a B: sponsored programme called International 1ecade for :atural 1isaster *eduction in the period from 3443 till 7### surveyed at least '# different cities. /nd the findings of the survey are very threatening to us. They are saying that the two most vulnerable cities to earthquake are Tehran and 1haka. There were several factors to come to this conclusion. ;or e ample situation in an earthquake )one, physical infrastructure, socio$economic condition of the people living there and most importantly response management.

Earthquake in Bangladesh
DS" But &hy Dhaka) *t+s not listed in the ,rimary earthquake zone in the region% ,*C 0ecause 1haka got )ero points in the main categories. Thickness of buildings, poor quality of construction, poor socio$economic condition of people and above all poor response management were the main negative factors for 1haka when the survey was done in 344<. /ll these put together 1haka was on the top along with Tehran as the most vulnerable cities when it comes to earthquake in the world. DS" Has the situation changed since then) ,*C Iell, let me put it this way $$ we are more aware of the risks now than ever before. /nd the serious earthquake in 0hu- in =u-arat was responsible for the renewed awareness. / lot of people working in this sector went there including myself. !ne thing that really struck me was that those organisations or institutions, responsible to help or rescue after a disaster hits, get affected by the disaster themselves, then how the response management would be put into effect. ;or e ample, the hospital, the water supply system in 0hu- were completely destroyed. DS" Do similar fla&s e-ist in Dhaka as &ell) ,*C More than enough, in fact the situation is worse in some cases. The fire brigade headquarters is situated in old 1haka, if an area like that with narrow lanes and a huge population, is effected then what kind of help can we e pect. /lso the way utility services like I/,/, 1E,/, Titas =as have their supplies in densely populated areas, it would be not -ust difficult but impossible to some e tent to response to a disaster similar to the one in 0hu-. It takes them fifteen days to fi only one burst gas pipeline. :eed I say moreJ My realisation after visiting 0hu- was that this is not like other disasters like flood and cyclone. The speed with which government and non$government organisations can respond in those situations, is not possible when it comes to earthquake. 0ecause the first -ob in earthquake is to rescue trapped people from inside collapsed buildings. /nd who can do this -ob better than those with proper equipment and training. ;or that we can only rely on government institutions. !n my return, my organisation and ! fam -ointly went to meet the Minister for 1isaster Management and *elief and he immediately bought the idea. /nd for the first ever time, national sensitisation seminar was held in 1haka in March last year where the responsibilities of various government institutions in times of an earthquake were identified. The heads of all organisations attended the seminar and interestingly, but not une pectedly, it was revealed that none of these organisations had any contingency plan. It never crossed anyone's mind that an earthquake can hit anytime and create such a havoc for which an integrated management was essential. DS" .hy do you think the go(ernment failed to sit u, and take note of the situations from the de(astating earthquakes in /o$e and then in 0u1arat# es,ecially since Bangladesh has remained as an earthquake ,rone zone for a long time) ,*C I think the government's priority and orientation changed mainly after the devastation in 0huin =u-arat. /fter the seminar last year, the Ministry took a lot of initiatives. The first one was that the capacity of the organisations would be developed. ,i meetings were held and they were attended not only by the heads of the seventeen organisations, but also the minister, the mayor of 1haka and other officials. /nd the outcome of those meetings could be described as some success, if not more. I wouldn't say they are hundred percent capable as yet, but they are definitely more sensitised to a crisis than ever before. They are ready to do something at least if a disaster strikes. ,econdly, to do something, not -ust awareness, they need some specialised equipment too. The government has been arranging with our help to hold a mock demonstration in old 1haka to show physically what should be done immediately when an earthquake strikes. ,ince ,ylhet and 2hittagong region are also very vulnerable to earthquake, similar initiatives have also been taken to train members of government organisations for immediate response to earthquakes. Ie have to remember that basic responsibility to protect the life and property of people lies with the government and the government has the capacity and resources to do that. There is a government standing order for disasters. It describes the responsibilities of all the government organsiations from the +M's office to local Bnion +arishad in times of disasters, but earthquake is not included in the order. It was written a long time ago and revised in 3445. /t the moment we are working on how to include earthquake in that standing order.

Earthquake in Bangladesh
DS" *f the organisations are more a&are and ca,a$le of tackling a crisis of this nature# then &hy ha(e there $een re,orts of no go(ernment assistance after the recent tremors in 'hittagong and 2angamati) ,*C I would take it as a positive thing, because at least as soon as the reports of tremors began to trickle in, all these organisations were on alert and they were also alerted by the deputy commissioners. ,ince the damage was not severe in 2hittagong 2ity, nothing was seen. 0ut if it was, maybe we would have witnessed those in action. DS" Let+s take a hy,othetical scenario% *f a se(ere earthquake strikes in Dhaka city &ith narro& lanes# $adly ,lanned housing estates etc# are these organisations &ell ,re,ared to res,ond immediately to the crisis# for e-am,le rescuing tra,,ed ,eo,le from colla,sed houses) ,*C In one word $$ no. They are not well equipped, though they are more sensitised. 0ut at the same time 0angladesh /rmy has a contingency plan, 0angladesh ;ire 0rigade and 2ivil 1efence 1irectorate has a contingency plan, Titas =as has a contingency plan, I/,/ has a plan but all these organisations do not have proper equipment. That's why the ministry has requested for a list of equipment from them. I don't know whether enough funds would be granted to buy the equipment, but I hope the government will take some initiative to arrange the fund. DS" A,art from lack of equi,ment# &hich are the other areas that could ,ose a serious threat to the rescue &ork) ,*C ;irst of all, there are very few cities in the world like 1haka that have developed in such an unplanned manner. 0uilding codes are never followed here. ,econdly, there are no specific pro-ects or ideas to keep us safe from earthquakes. ;or e ample, pro-ects aided by Aapan have specified certain areas in densely populated cities like Tehran, Manila, Turkey where specific laws would have to be adhered to in case one wants to build a new house, vulnerable buildings have been identified etc. .ere we all know that there are codes but they are hardly implemented. DS" But are those organisations res,onsi$le for ensuring the rules included in the ,rogramme that the go(ernment has taken u,) ,*C !f course, */AB@ is one of the seventeen organisations who are part of this process. The */AB@ chairman attended two meetingsH the additional chief engineer attends all the meetings. They are planning ways to revise the building code and make it more effective for implementation. Then there are practical problems like lack of open spaces in the city where the affected people can be taken after a tremor. Ie are hoping that after the sensitisation process, we would be able to make proper use of our limited resources in a planned manner. Ie can at least reduce the risk, if nothing more. Take for e ample an area like old 1haka. Even if the government wants, it can't relocate the inhabitants somewhere else, but the government can identify the empty spaces and playing fields that still e ists there and make proper use of them. In a poor country like :epal, the government decided to retrofit some schools, it means the buildings have been made earthquake proof by spending a little e tra. Even the carpenters and masons are being trained. .ere forget them, even the architects are not fully aware of the risks. ,o it's a long way to go. Ihat I want to say is that it's not the resources, it's the will that is required. /nd the ministry has shown a lot of interests in doing something constructive. Ie along with ! fam are working very closely with the ministry and we have realised that not the non$governmental organisations', the roles of the government organisations are of utmost importance. DS" .hat other measures ha(e $een taken to a&are ,eo,le a$out the risks and the things to do after a tremor) ,*C The ministry has prepared one hundred thousand brochures sponsored by B:I2E;, two 4# seconds long short films funded by ! fam have been made $$ one addressing the common people on what they could do and the other aiming at the responsible organistations on what could be done by them. /part from these, leaflets are being published for distribution in educational institutions. /nd the effort is on. I am very optimist by the level of seriousness shown by the government. 0ut I agree that it will take time to achieve what we have set out to do. /aushik Sankar Das is an Assistant Editor of The Daily Star%

Earthquake in Bangladesh

otential earthquake threat and our !oping "trategie" 1r M ,hahidul Islam

/lthough earthquake in 0angladesh has not yet been recognised as a case of serious natural disaster, but recent occurrences and assumptions have already generated a potential threat. The incidents of recent repeated earthquakes on 7% Auly in 2hittagong have raised a great concern among the people of the country, particularly among those around 2hittagong region. Ihat is an earthquakeJ It is a shock or a series of shocks on the earth surface resulted from release of pressure due to sudden movement of crystal rocks along active fault lines or plate boundaries of the earth surface or in areas of volcanic activities. ,ome parts of the world are earthquake prone more than others, although such event may happen at any place, any time and that of any magnitude. Aapan, the +hilippines, ,outheast /sia and :orth /merica are particularly vulnerable to earthquake. =eographically 0angladesh is located close to the boundary of two active platesC the Indian plate in the west and the Eurasian plate in the east and north. /s a result the country is always under a potential threat of earthquake of any magnitude at any time, which might cause catastrophic devastation in less than a minute. In the seismic )oning map of 0angladesh, 2hittagong region has been shown under 9one II with basic seismic coefficient of #.#5, but recent repeated -erk around this region indicate the possibilities of potential threat of even much higher intensity than pro-ected. / total of about si lackh incidents of quakes of different magnitudes occur annually throughout the world of which that of magnitudes 8$%, %$< and above < are 37#, 3< and 3, respectively. The records in 0angladesh during the last 3%5 years shows total number of 75, 3< and 6 incidents of earthquakes having intensity more than 8, % and < on *ichter scale, respectively. /mong such incidents 0engal Eq of 36 Auly 3<<5 "*$%&, =reat Indian Eq of 37 Aune 3<4% "*$<.%&, ,rimangal Eq of < Auly 343< "%.8& and /ssam Eq of 35 /ugust 345# "*$<.5& are well known. .owever, people's awareness regarding earthquakes in 0angladesh began to generate after the tragic death of ,adia "a little girl& in a quake of only *$5.8 magnitude on 73 :ovember, 344%. Moreover, the incidents of repeated shocks between 77 Auly and 7 /ugust, 3444 at Moheskhali and the damages to lives and properties could draw the attention of the nation considerably. ,ince then earthquake in 0angladesh has been considered as a potential natural killer to human lives. The last ma-or earthquake in 0angladesh occurred about '# years back. ,tatistically the threat of such a high magnitude tremor has the highest possibly to happen at any time, which might cause devastations particularly in 1haka and 2hittagong cities. The occurrence of earthquakes is part of the natural process in the earth's geophysical system. Bnder the present stage of scientific development it is not possible to stop such natural events, and even if it was possible to do so, we should not intervene such internal system of the earth. .owever, understanding the characteristics of internal geophysical process of the earth and possibility of its forecasting can reduce the casualties from such incident considerably. 1eveloped countries are doing continuous research in this field. *ather it is better to accommodate this event and develop technology to live with such incident, as we are living with cyclones, storm surges and floods. .owever, locating the epicenters and monitoring the characteristics of each shock may improve our understanding considerably and lead us to develop some preventive measure to live with earthquakes. It is thus immediate necessity to upgrade the e isting earthquake measurement station at /mbagan in 2hittagong and complete the two other proposed stations at 1ina-pur and ,ylhet. 0angladesh has improved tremendously to mitigate and manage many of its natural disasters, although the mitigation strategies regarding earthquake has remained nearly in its infant stage. /t this stage the country does not need to take any radical measures to mitigate the earthquake incident, rather the concept of earthquake mitigation and management issues can be incorporated within the e isting disaster management programme of the government, ranging from :ational 1isaster Management 2ouncil to Bnion 1isaster Management 2ommittee. +roper training to voluntary organisations and :=!s, and procurement of instruments required for rescue operation must get top priority in the management agenda. Moreover, motivation programme and increasing of people's awareness can reduce the casualties from any earthquake incident considerably. It is not the earthquake rather it is the building that kills people. If the collapse of even a single building can become possible to stop, it can save many lives residing in that building. It is not possible to abandon all old buildings, under the potential threat of earthquake. .owever, it is quite possible that all newly constructed buildings and structures must be brought under strict building code that resists earthquake damage.

Earthquake in Bangladesh
0angladesh is possibly one of the countries most vulnerable to potential earthquake threat and damage. /n earthquake of even medium magnitude on *ichter scale can produce a mass graveyard in ma-or cities of the country, particularly 1haka and 2hittagong, without any notice. 2onstruction of new buildings strictly following building code or development of future controls on building construction are the activities which will be functional in future. .owever, under the present stage of human occupancy, buildings, infrastructures and other physical structures of different areas of a city will not be equally vulnerable to any such shock. Earthquake vulnerability of any place largely depends on its geology and topography, population density, building density and quality, and finally the coping strategy of its people, and it shows clear spatial variations. It is thus necessary to identify the scale of such variations and take necessary measurements to cope with that. /lthough the earthquake tremors cannot be stopped or reduced, the human casualties and loss of properties can be reduced with the help of an earthquake vulnerable assessment atlas. /n earthquake atlas is the presentation of facts relating to earthquakes and the guideline for earthquake mitigation measurements at regional scale in the form of map, graphs, pictures and te t. ,uch an atlas provides clear guidelines to post disaster rescue operation, regional scale mitigation strategies and stepwise disaster management activities. Ie do not have any such atlas neither at national level nor at regional level. .owever, it is the timely demand to prepare an earthquake vulnerability assessment atlas of 0angladesh in general, and for the ma-or cities in particular. ?arge scale mitigation measurement needs huge initial investmentH however, to save human lives and properties, we should not hesitate to do so. +articularly strict control of building codes, enforcement of laws and orders, and development of people awareness has no alternatives. .owever, some immediate measures are suggested belowC $ Make an inventory of all old buildings which are vulnerable to earthquake, and either repair or evacuate occupants from those buildings. $ Make an inventory of houses, which are constructed at the foot of steep hillsides, particularly where hill slopes have been cut, even ten years back. *elocate those families to suitable places. $ Make earthquake vulnerability atlas of ma-or cities, which will show in detail the list of vulnerable sites, their possible consequences and possible measurements of mitigation at different scales of earthquake events. $ ,trict application of building codes for all newly constructed buildings, particularly all high rises buildings. $ 1evelopment of awareness programme to educate people regarding the causes and consequences of earthquakes. /nd also to disseminate knowledge to them regarding their responsibilities before, during and after the earthquake through seminar, symposium and workshop, and also through non$formal education by =! and :=!s. 1uring the 7#s and '#s of the last century Aapan lost 3.5 lackh human lives only in five earthquake incidents. 0ut that society has faced this challenge successfully over the last 5# years. 1uring the last <#s and 4#s a total of '# events hit the country causing loss of less than si thousand lives. Aapan has not succeeded to stop earthquakes but has reduced the human casualties and loss of properties dramatically. /t the present stage of our society and current level of development we may seem helpless but through our sincerity, honesty and commitment we may even do better than the Aapanese society. Ie should therefore be optimistic and thus active. Dr 3 Shahidul *slam is 4rofessor# De,artment of 0eogra,hy# 5ni(ersity of 'hittagong%

Earthquake in Bangladesh

Banglade"h #ulnerable to earthquake

E perts, stakeholders blame uncontrolled urbanisation, over population 0,,, 1haka E perts and stakeholders at an workshop yesterday underscored the need for taking a long$term programme specially focusing in urban areas to face any natural calamities like earthquake. 1ue to its geographic location, 0angladesh is vulnerable to earthquake and colossal damages of lives and properties may be occurred if the country faces an earthquake measuring five to si on the *ichter scale, they said. Bncontrolled urbanisation and over population put 0angladesh at high risk of earthquake , they added. Minister for 1isaster Management and *elief 2howdhury @amal Ibne Dusuf attended the inaugural function organised by the ministry with the help of European Mission Team at a city hotel as the chief guest. E. @entrschynsky- and .ans *hein of EB 1elegation in 0angladesh and 1r. Aohn M *eynolds, team leader of Identification Mission spoke at the inaugurals session with /.M ,hamsul Islam, 1irector =eneral of 1isaster Management 0ureau "1M0& in the chair. The minister said the government has undertaken various earthquake preparedness measures to mitigate the sufferings of the people and reduce loss of lives and properties. Ie are providing training to all concerned and creating awareness among the people to face such disaster, he added. 2iting e pert opinion, he said 0angladesh is situated on the earthquake )one and any colossal damage may occurred if the country faces a moderate intensity earthquake. The country e perienced at least 5# mild tremors last year with fear of another ma-or earthquake, he added. .e said old and unplanned building construction in the capital city especially in the old part of 1haka will lead damages of lives and properties in earthquake. .e said the government has taken a 2omprehensive 1isaster Management +olicy "21M+& for earthquake preparedness and mitigation. .e sought cooperation from the development partners specially the European 2ommission "EB& to provide all out support in this regard. / total of 6# representatives from the government organisations including /rmy, :avy, /ir force, 01*, ;ire ,ervice, 2ivil 1efence, *ed 2rescent ,ociety, :=!s, and development partners are participating in the workshop.

Banglade"h run" high ri"k of quake$ t"una%i

E perts tell roundtable ,taff 2orrespondent 0angladesh is running a high risk of earthquake and tsunami, but it has little preparation to combat those natural calamities, said the e perts at a roundtable yesterday. They said the recent earthquake in +akistan and tsunami in the Iestern 0ay of 0engal are the warnings for 0angladesh. The roundtable was organised by >olunteers /gainst 1isaster ">/1& in association with the 1isaster *esearch Training Management 2entre of 1haka Bniversity "1B& at the auditorium of geography and environment department. The speakers said there are a few geological faults that can cause strong earthquakes in the country. !ne of them is 1auki fault at the bordering area of ,ylhet$Meghalaya and the other one is ,itakunda$Teknaf fault at 2hittagong coastal area.

Earthquake in Bangladesh
There are many seismic faults in the plains around 1haka and 2hittagong .ill Tracts, which can cause earthquakes, said =eology +rof ,yed .umayun /ktar. K:o earthquakes occurred in these faults for many years, which means huge strength has gathered underground that could cause serious earthquakes in 0angladesh and its neighbouring areas any time,K he said. .umayun /ktar said there is a long 8## kilometer seismic gap "that indicates possibility of earthquake& stretching from the /ndaman Islands of the 0ay of 0engal to Teknaf where there is no record of earthquake. KThis is a great threat which could cause a strong earthquake measuring < in *ichter ,cale in 0angladesh, and turn into tsunami if the earthquake occurs under the 0ay of 0engal,K he warned. .umayun /ktar said such tsunamis will directly hit !rissa of India, Iest 0engal and the total coastal belt of 0angladesh. K/s our coastal belt is only %5# km away from Teknaf$/ndaman seismic gap, it will take only one and a half hours to destroy coastal localities,K he added. .umayun /ktar said if earthquakes with a magnitude of % occur in 0angladesh or in Meghalaya, /ssam, Monipur, and Mi-oram of India and at the bordering area of Myanmar, those will cause huge loss of life and property in the country. Mir ;a)lul @arim, director of =eological ,urvey of 0angladesh, said, LThe 7## km long continental shelf is susceptible to earthquakes and landslides or slump failures along the margins. These locations are e tremely potential for generation of local tsunamis, which are more destructive than the regional tsunamis.K .e suggested development of a rapid seismic observatory system including hydro$acoustic sensors, sea height buoys and modern tide gauges as an integral part of early warning system for tsunami. Md /bu ,adek, director general of 1isaster Management 0ureau, said the 0uilding 2ode, now being reviewed, should incorporate the issue of earthquake as well as its strict implementation. KIe spend huge money for post$disaster management, but I think a portion of it should be spent on researches,K he added. 1r /shraf Mahmud 1ewan, assistant professor of geography and environment science department of 1B, suggested that all organisations concerned have to share earthquake and tsunami$related information and create mass awareness among the people. 1ean of ,cience ;aculty +rof *IM /minur *ashid, +rof /bdur *ab, +rof .afi)a @hatun, +rof :urul Islam :a)em, +rof /ftab /lam @han, 1eputy 1irector of Meteorological 1epartment /r-umand .abib and 1r /slam /lam of 2omprehensive 1isaster Management +rogramme of Ministry of ;ood and 1isaster Management also spoke at the roundtable moderated by +rof Aamal @han.

Earthquake&

redi!tion and %ea"ure" M Muminullah

;ace of the earth is changing through geological processes, sea floor spreading and plate tectonics. Earthquake is the outcome of such geological processes. ,tudy of world wide frequency suggests that the more severe an earthquake, the less it occurs. / catastrophic earthquake with a magnitude more than <.# on *ichter scale usually occurs once in every 5$3# yearsH disastrous on local scale with magnitude 8.7$8.4 about 3## or more in a year, and moderate "magnitude 6.'$6.<& more or less 5### per year. Earthquake with magnitude less than '.6 recorded only by seismograph, the annual number of such tremor is about <##,###. ,o far at least 37 large$to$great earthquakes occurred in and around 0angladesh. In this conte t the people, government policy$makers as well as professional community vi). engineers, architects,

Earthquake in Bangladesh
seismic geologists, planners etc may consider recurrence interval for ha)ard avoidance through structural design and by proper land$use. The 2alcutta Earthquake of !ctober 3, 3%'% recorded a death toll of '##,###. This is the third most disastrous quake in this region which occurred during the last <## years in terms of loss of life " the highest deaths estimated <7#,### in 3558 at ,hen$shu, 2hina and the ne t %##,### in 34%8 at T'ang$shan, 2hina&. The /ssam Earthquake of Aune 37,3<4% is one of the 3#$graetest quakes occurred with a magnitude of <.% on the *ichter scale and an intensity of >II on the Modified Mercalli ,cale that caused a damage to the tune of B, M75 million. The 0ihar$:epal Earthquake of Aanuary 35, 34'6 recorded magnitude <.3 and an Intensity N with a damage to the tune of B, M 75 million and estimated death toll of about 3#,###. The 2hittagong Earthquake of /pril 7, 3%87 recorded an Intensity of >III on the Modified Mercalli ,cale and a damage of B, M5m. The 0engal Earthquake, Manikgan- of Auly 36, 3<<5 recorded a considerable damage. The ,rimangal Earthquake of Auly <,343< occurred with magnitude %.8 and recorded damage of more than B, M3.#m. *ealising the earthquake ha)ards and its impact on national economy, =eological ,urvey of 0angladesh "=,0& took initiative in 34<< for a geological investigation on earthquakes and the potential ha)ards of their recurrence. In /pril 34<4 1r 1arell = .erd of B, =eological ,urvey along with representatives of =,0 carried out a geological investigation to determine the tectonic origin of the /ssam Earthquake of Aune 37, 3<4% on the 1auki fault. / pro-ect titled K1etailed geological mapping for coal and other mineral e ploration and :eotectonic study related to natural ha)ardsK was initiated also for identification of ma-or geological features for Earthquake .a)ard *eduction +rogramme. +rovision to install micro$seismic equipment was kept to collect seismic data of even smaller than magnitude '.6 for neotectonic study. / network of modern, wide frequency ,digital seismographic stations at ,ylhet, 2o 's 0a)ar " alternately 2hittagong&, Mongla "alternately @hulna& and *angpur would provide an accurate location "within several kilometers& for most earthquake events including even of smaller magnitude of 7 to ' for preparation of micro$seismic map of 0angladesh. 1uring the 3<4% quake, an area of more than '##,### square km covering 0angladesh, India, 0hutan and western Mynmar was severely shaken. The fault origin of the 3<4% /ssam Earthquake may have originated on the 1auki fault running east$west along India "/ssam&$0angladesh "greater Mymensingh and ,ylhet& border. ,everal other potential areas of geological features and elements are 1haka$,rimangal lineament, the Tista lineament, the /trai lineament, the 0rahmaputra$Aamuna lineament, the 0ogra fault"J&, the Mymensingh lineament , the Tangail scarp, the 2hittagong fault identified from interpretation of satellite imagery by =,0. :eotectonic study on such potential areas may be carried out to collect data on paleoseismology for Earthquake *isk /ssessment Map by identifying active faults, fault scarps by detailed trench investigations, searching river banks, stream channels, irrigation ditches and e cavations in flood plain materials for geological evidence of multiple liquefaction events and sand blows. Iith such realisation on one hand and observation of the rapid growth of high$rise building and population, industrial establishments and commercial activities on the other, in the capital city 1haka and the port city 2hittagong, a report entitled, K:atural .a)ards in 0angladeshC EarthquakesK was prepared following the 2hittagong earthquake of :ovember 73, 344% for awareness of the policymakers as well as the professional community. 2onsidering the nature and e tent of the earthquakes' threat or their recurrence, a strict compliance of the e isting 0uilding 2ode "which is not in force in 0angladesh& was suggested to build suitable engineered structures to minimise ha)ards. The 2hittagong Earthquake of Auly 7%, 7##' occurred with a magnitude of 5.8 on *ichter scale. ;rom press repots, we observed that a crack was developed in 0orkal area that called for detailed geological study, the nature and e tent, slip rate and identification of earthquake features like sand boils, liquefaction, landslides etc. The 3#$km crack is the rupture length of the fault segment produced by the 0orkal Earthquake. This is a closely mimicked surface feature of the 34<' 0orah +eak, Idaho, Earthquake "!AT 34<4 under the supervision of /nthony A. 2rone, B,=,, 1enver&. Tremors in 2hittagong and a small$scale tsunami "a long ocean wave produced by movement of sea floor following an earthquake& in /ndaman sea on /ugust 33, 7##' reveal the evidences of sea floor spreading and plate tectonic activated in the region.

10

Earthquake in Bangladesh
;requency, the nature and e tent of the past earthquakes and recurrence of its behaviour suggest that a big earthquake event in 0angladesh may cause worst catastrophy, potentially more severe than that of the 2alcutta Earthquake of !ctober 3, 3%'% when about '##,### lost their life. Earthquake is inevitable in the regions of seismic belt, but modern e periences with earthquakes in populated areas like the cities reveal the fact that properly designed engineered structures and constructed facilities can withstand even large earthquakes. ,o ensuring that appropriate engineering design and material standards keeping pace with sensible use of land and event prediction can thus serve effectively in reducing the loss of life and property in the event of a big earthquake. 3% 3uminullah is retired Director of 0eological Sur(ey of Bangladesh '" Banglade"h #ulnerable to earthquake"? Mir ;a)lul @arim There are some valid questionsC Is 0angladesh vulnerable to earthquakesJ ,hould we be concerned about an earthquake when occurrences of earthquake damages are not so significantJ The country faces so many day$to$day problems related to environment, industrial pollution, traffic, water and power shortage, and annual calamities such as flood, drought, cyclone and tidal bore. 2an we afford to ignore earthquake ha)ardsJ Earthquakes are the detectable shaking of the earth's surface resulting from seismic waves generated by a sudden release of energy from inside the earth. /ny landmass which has e perienced natural ground shaking in the past is vulnerable to earthquake risk and thus liable to earthquake ha)ard. / severe earthquake can bring devastation to the economy of the country and we cannot ignore potential danger of earthquakes. Banglade"h& ( geologi!al lo!ation for earthquake" The geological structures in and around 0angladesh are capable of accumulating tectonic strain. These structures have released enough energy to produce destructive shakes in the past. ;ortunately, the frequency of large earthquakes in and around the country is less than in other earthquake$prone regions of the world, though sometimes the lone national seismic observatory station at 2hittagong measures a relatively high frequency of low magnitude shakes. 0angladesh, along with its neighboring counties, shared the e perience of e traordinary ground shaking due to an earthquake of magnitude <.% which is widely known as KThe =reat Indian Earthquake.K The earthquake occurred due to a vertical displacement along the 1auki ;ault located near the north$east international boundary between 0angladesh and India. The earthquake caused about 7#m of pop$up of the ,hillong Massive within a few seconds, and debris were blown even miles away from the epicenter area. / similar strong and e traordinary earthquake of magnitude %.5 occurred in 0hu- on Aanuary 78, 7##3, damaging many urban areas of =u-arat and killing an estimated 75,### people. ,cientists consider these as rare earthquakes, but this type of earthquake could be e tremely devastating in the peripheries of the Indian peninsula. 0angladesh occupies a greater part of the 0engal basin. It is located in the eastern e tremity of the peninsula and the @utch basin in the western e tremity is a mirror image of the 0engal basin. The regional geological structures from south to north at both the eastern and western e tremities postulate a geometrical symmetry that would be receptive to similar tectonic behaviour in terms of stress distribution "e cept for some local differential characteristics&. 2onsidering such a geological setting, 0angladesh could be a receptive place for e traordinary earthquakes. )he rapidly growing urban !enter" in!rea"e the "u"!eptibility of earthquake da%age =enerally, unplanned and populous townships are always vulnerable to earthquake ha)ard or damages. 0angladesh is a densely populated country. /t the beginning of the twentieth century there were only 6< urban centers in the country and at present there are 643 including the densely populated cities and growth centers. / rapid change in infrastructure development has resulted in significant changes in housing pattern and transportation, sewerage, water supply, waste disposal system and communication network. /ll development has taken place in a very short time. The planners and city managers could not keep pace for regulating the government's planned efforts in

11

Earthquake in Bangladesh
the face of such rapid development. The lack of planned development puts the cities and growth centers in a vulnerable situation for larger earthquake damages. The e perts foresee the most deadly future for 1haka mega$city in the event of an earthquake here. redi!tion of ground !ondition" The geology of 0angladesh is comple due to the presence of about 3##m to 3###m "'#,###ft& of sedimentary deposits over the basement rock of Indian plate. More than <#O of the country is covered by soft sediments "soil& or holocene deposits with unpredictable changes in the upper 3##m of deposits, having considerable variations in the constituent geological materials and geotechnical properties. The geological map of the country indicates that the upper 3#m of sediments in about 8#O of the land area is susceptible to liquefaction during earthquake, making the ground vulnerable to immediate shear failure. *ore effort i" needed for building up earthquake ha+ard awarene"" /s the frequency of earthquakes is low in 0angladesh, the people and government are not clearly aware of earthquake devastation and we can not afford any e periment with it. 0uilding up of public awareness could be the first and essential step towards preparedness for reduction of earthquake damages. It is necessary to remember the alarming 1haka Earthquake 7##3, when strong tremors were felt in the city and many people rushed out of their homes and offices in panic. 3## prison inmates were hurt in a stampede at the 1haka 2entral Aail. ,hat "hall we do? The country has had many damaging earthquakes in the past and is placed in a high seismic )one in the =lobal ,eismic .a)ard Map. Ie have not investigated the source structures, but due to its comple geological setting, 0angladesh is not capable of sustaining the strong shaking produced in the .imalaya and Meghalaya source area. Bnfortunately, many of the infrastructures and buildings in 0angladesh may not meet 0:02 standards and may be considered vulnerable from seismic safety viewpoint. =enerally earthquake damages are irreparable. If we consider the potentiality of earthquake disaster, we may not be able to ignore this e traordinary geological ha)ard. Ie are at the early stage of possible earthquake ha)ard assessment and cannot e pect any overnight understanding of earthquake vulnerability of the country. 0ut steps can be taken to reduce the losses and damages by implementation of 0angladesh :ational 0uilding 2ode "0:02& in the construction practice, identification of appropriate subsurface geology, determining the right type of architectural setting and engineering design of both foundation and superstructures, development of fire safety options, keeping open spaces for rescue operations, and other such measures. /t least we need an plan of action. There is an urgent need for reasonable seismic risk assessment of the country. It is a multidisciplinary task and includes technical training, institutional development, development of technical manuals, legal and enforcement aspects, and public awareness programmes. 3ir 6azlul /arim is Director# 0eological Sur(ey of Bangladesh% E-pert" repeat !all for quake preparedne"" 2ity 2orrespondent E perts predict the deaths of at least 48,### people, in-uries of 3,7%,### and the collapse of 7< percent of the e isting buildings if a moderate earthquake hits the city. They told a workshop the direct loss would be worth a billion dollars in case of an earthquake of medium intensity. 1haka 2ity 2orporation "122& and 0angladesh Earthquake ,ociety "0E,& -ointly organised the workshop on KEarthquake +reparedness and ManagementK last week to create awareness on earthquakes, sponsored -ointly by 2are 0angladesh and B,/I1. ,peaking as the chief guest, +resident of 0E, Aamilur *e)a 2howdhury said according to seismic )oning map of 0angladesh, 1haka comes under the highly earthquake prone )one 7. .e said the consequences of earthquakes would be disastrous, as 1haka's population is at least 3# million.

12

Earthquake in Bangladesh
Mohammed /bu ,adeque, sub$divisional engineer of +ublic Iorks 1epartment "+I1&, clarified the reasons and effects of earthquake in his presentation. .e quoted scientists anticipate a severe earthquake in 0angladesh. KThe Indo$/ustralian Tectonic +late on which 0angladesh is situated is moving northward. .owever, the movement had stopped for the last hundred years storing 'strain energy' under the outer shell of the earth. This will cause a big earthquake in 0angladesh at any moment,K he said. ,adeque said there may be fissures on the ground and apart from complete damage, buildings may have settlements, tilts or cracks as effects of an earthquake. ;ire is another problem that follows earthquakes. K1haka is more likely to have fire ha)ards during earthquakes as its gas supply is piped,K he said. '?iquefaction' was highlighted in ,adeque's presentation as a ma-or factor left by earthquake where the soil becomes soft like quicksand and unable to hold any structure. .owever, 1r Mehdi /hmed /nsary, secretary general of 0E,, said in presentation that a comparatively less chance of '?iquefaction' e ists in 1haka. K!nly 3# per cent of ground in 1haka may suffer from it as underground water level is gradually decreasing,K he said. The e perts said proper earthquake proof construction is necessary for the safety of city dwellers. They said some construction firms try to convince people saying their buildings can bear an earthquake measured % or < on the *ichter ,cale. 1r. /nsary added that an earthquake measuring 3 on *ichter scale might get amplified into 7.5 because of the soil quality of a particular area. .e also said lack of maintenance of old buildings is posing a threat to city dwellers. KI have seen some buildings in old town, built on narrow columns with no foundation,K said 1r. /nsary. KImagine the plight of 7# lakh residents, if an earthquake takes place,K he said. ,peakers said that in most cases an old building with no earthquake precaution could be made earthquake resistant by retrofitting. KIt may cost 3# to 35 percent of the total construction cost of the building,K said /bu ,adeque. E perts said 4# percent of the city dwellers would be safe if buildings were constructed to meet the earthquake consequences. They stressed for a disaster management system for the other 3# percent. They added there should be stringent laws compelling builders to follow the earthquake code. ,yed /shraful /lam, Md. Morshed and Mashiur *. @handekar also made presentations. Tapan @umar 1as =upta, 122's chief town planner and .abibur *ahman, chief e ecutive officer, also spoke.

Earthquake ha+ard & .haka !ity per"pe!ti#e

1r. /ftab /lam @han / sudden, transient motion or trembling in the earth's crust, resulting from the propagation of seismic waves caused by faulting of the rocks either at shallow andPor deeper depths is known as earthquake. The motion is caused by the quick release of slowly accumulated energy in the form of seismic waves. The release of accumulated energy may occur at any depth and time but the intensity of damage is directly proportional to the movement on a fault, which is a thin )one, both at vertical and hori)ontal plains, of crushed rock between two blocks of rock. / fault can range in length from a few centimeters to hundreds of kilometers. The larger the fault length, the larger the energy release by fault movements. The ground shaking and the radiated seismic energy are caused most commonly by sudden slip on a fault, or other sudden stress changes in the Earth. ,udden break within the upper layers of the earth, sometimes breaking the surface, resulting in the vibration of the ground, where strong enough will cause the collapse of buildings and destruction of life and property. 0ased on long term historical records, about 3< ma-or earthquakes "%.# $ %.4 on the *ichter scale& and one great earthquake "<.# or above& are e pected in any given year globally.

13

Earthquake in Bangladesh
/ny physical phenomenon associated with an earthquake that may produce adverse effects on human activities is termed as earthquake ha)ard. This includes surface faulting, ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction, tectonic deformation, tsunami, and their effects on land use, man$made structures, and socio$economic systems. / commonly used restricted definition of earthquake ha)ard is the probability of occurrence of a specified level of ground shaking in a specified period of time. ,imilarly, earthquake risk is the e pected "or probable& life loss, in-ury, or building damage that will happen, given the probability of earthquake ha)ard. Earthquake risk and earthquake ha)ard are occasionally used interchangeably. 0angladesh, by and large, is seismically active. The occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude averaging around 5 in *ichter scale is quite frequent especially in its eastern region. /lthough, 1haka has not been e perienced with any moderate to large earthquake in historical past, even then the earthquake of 1ecember 34, 7##3 with magnitude of 6.5 and focal depth of 3# km located very close to 1haka is certainly an indication of its earthquake source and vulnerability. In addition, micro$seismicity data also supports the e istence of at least four earthquake source points in and around 1haka. The earthquake disaster risk inde has placed 1haka among the 7# most vulnerable cities in the world. 1haka with its population of around 3' million and enormous poorly constructed and dilapidated structures signifies e tremely vulnerable conditions for massive loss of lives and property in the event of a moderately large earthquake. The recently measured plate motions at si different sites of 0angladesh including 1hakaH "the research being -ointly conducted by ?amont$1oherty Earth !bservatory, 2olumbia Bniversity, B,/ and the 1epartment of =eology, 1haka Bniversity& clearly demonstrate that 1haka is moving '#.8 mmPyear in the direction northeast. ;urther, the rate of strain accumulation is relatively high in and around 1haka. It may precipitate in an earthquake of magnitude 8.< in the event of the release of accumulated strain. The shallow subsurface of 1haka is also characteri)ed by number of faults of variable dimensions. These faults are vulnerable to motion where these coincide with the )ones of high particle velocity. The coincidence of the )ones of high particle velocity with the location of faults suggests that the western part of 1haka city from Mirpur$@alyanpur to +agla along 0uriganga river and the eastern part of 1haka city from Bttar @han$0adda to 1emra along 0alu river has emerged as high risk )one. The peak ground acceleration in these areas has been calculated ranging between #.' to #.'5 if an earthquake of magnitude 5.8 occurs in and around 1haka city. The resonant length in these areas suggests an optimal height beyond five storiesH additional seismic factor needs to be introduced in addition to general seismic factor which is introduced based on seismic factors of the site specifically for earthquake resistant building code. The entire 1haka megacity has been looked upon from earthquake ha)ard point of view. It has been divided into four )ones of earthquake ha)ard vulnerability ranging between very high risks and low risk. Earthquake cannot be prevented. 0ut certainly it is high time to be much more concerned about the probable impending earthquake in order to minimise the loss of lives and property in national interest. !n the basis of the above facts, we should develop earthquake monitoring network in 0angladesh immediately. It is of prime importance to set a national institute of earthquake research to develop high skilled manpower that can perform the task for earthquake risk assessment and management. Ie should remember that one earthquake of moderate intensity would kill thousands of people and destroy enormous national property. 1eath is certain for all human beings but painful death is not desirable. Dr% Afta$ Alam /han# 4rofessor# 0eology De,artment# Dhaka 5ni(ersity is 7ice 4resident# Bangladesh Earthquake Society BES

Earthquake ri"k in Banglade"h& /a!ing the reality

1r. Tahmeed M. /l$.ussaini /developer in 1haka may claim that his building can withstand a Magnitude < "*ichter scale& earthquake. This statement can be misleading, because in 1haka we do not have to design our buildings for such large earthquake. The known earthquake sources that can produce large earthquakes are far away from 1haka. In fact, earthquake resistant building design at a particular place is based on specified ground shaking "known as intensity& for that location and not on earthquake magnitude. It is important to understand the difference between these basic terms used for describing the strength and effect of earthquakes. Magnitude is a measure of the strength of an earthquake or strain energy released by it, which can be determined from seismographic recordings. There are different scales of they are based on different kinds of measurements and estimation. Earthquake magnitudes are e pressed by a

14

Earthquake in Bangladesh
number, which is usually in the range of 7 to 3#. The different scales usually differ by some small amount, however the variation is larger at large magnitudes. /n increase of one unit of magnitude "for e ample, from 6.8 to 5.8& represents appro imately a '#$fold increase in the energy released. Most of the earthquakes occur along plate boundaries of the earth. 1amage can be caused by magnitudes greater than about 5, while magnitude greater than about % can cause lot of destruction. /s e amples of big losses during relatively moderate earthquakes, a magnitude 5.< earthquake in 348# killed around 37,### people in Morocco and more recently a magnitude 8.' earthquake in 344' killed '#,### people in India and caused B, M <# million in losses. 2lassification of earthquakes based on magnitude and its average annual occurrence in the world is presented in the table belowC 1escription Magnitude :umber of events per year =reat < and higher 3 Ma-or % $ %.4 3% ,trong 8 $ 8.4 3'6 Moderate 5 $ 5.4 3'34 ?ight 6 $ 6.4 3',### "estimated& Minor ' $ '.4 3'#,### "estimated& >ery Minor 7 $ 7.4 3,'##,###

The effect and damage at a place not only depends on the magnitude of the earthquake but also on the distance from the earthquake source and the local soil conditions. The effectmagnitude, of any earthquake diminishes with distance. Intensity is used to represent the effects and damage. The most commonly used intensity scale is the Modified Mercalli Intensity "MMI& ,cale, which varies from I "lowest& to NII *ecently we have witnessed with horror how destructive and devastating earthquakes can be in the ,outh and ,outh$East /sian region. The most recent 78 1ecember 7##6 magnitude 4.# ,umatra earthquake originating under the sea generated a tsunami in the ocean that destroyed coastal areas in Indonesia, ,ri ?anka, India, Thailand, Maldives claiming more than 35#,### liv"most severe&. It is therefore necessary to identify first the locations and magnitudes of probable earthquakes and secondly, the damage intensity at a place due to those earthquakes. Earthquake risk at a place is the e pected consequences of future seismic events, it therefore depends on the estimated earthquake intensity.es. This tsunami, which was very powerful, also caused damage to Eastern /frica, thousands of"estimated& km away. /lthough 0angladesh was fortunate to be spared from the devastation this time, the risk of tsunami is there and this needs to be further investigated. The 7##3 0hu- earthquake in India has shown to us that inappropriate construction technology may lead to high casualty levels even for moderate ground shaking. / peak ground acceleration of #.33g "g is the acceleration due to gravity& caused the collapsePserious damage of numerous mid to high$rise buildings in /hmedabad, a city around 76# km away from the epicenter of MQ%.% 0huearthquake. :ote that according to the 0angladesh 0uilding 2ode, the ma-or cities of 1haka and 2hittagong can be sub-ected to ground motion reaching higher values "#.35g&, while ,ylhet, Mymensingh, *angpur may be sub-ected to a ground motion of #.75g. 0angladesh, being located close to the plate margins of Indian and Eurasian plates, is susceptible to earthquakes. The collision of the Indian plate moving northward with the Eurasian plate is the cause of frequent earthquakes in the region comprising 0angladesh and neighbouring India, :epal and Myanmar. .istorically 0angladesh has been affected by five earthquakes of large magnitude "M& greater than %.# "*ichter scale& during the 83 year period from 3<84 to 34'#. /mong them, the mighty <R magnitude 3<4% =reat Indian earthquake in ,hillong, /ssam had an epicentral distance of about 7'# km from 1haka. That earthquake caused e tensive damages to masonry buildings in many parts of 0angladesh including 1haka. The 3<<5 0engal earthquake "MQ%.#, 3%# km from 1haka& and 343< ,rimongal earthquake "MQ%.8, 35# km from 1haka& had their epicentres within 0angladesh, they caused considerable damage locally. Two great "M(<& earthquakes occurred in 0ihar in 34'6 and in /ssam in 345#, but they were too far to cause any damage in 0angladesh. It should be noted that large earthquakes in the region have not been occurring for quite a long time "around %5 years& and hence, the possibility of a ma-or earthquake occurring soon is quite high. /ccording to +rof. 0ruce 0olt of Bniversity of 2alifornia at 0erkeley, a world renowned seismologist, 0angladesh can be affected by large magnitude earthquakes generated in four tectonic )ones, as shown in the following tableC

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Earthquake in Bangladesh
The present generation of people in 0angladesh hasn't witnessed any ma-or earthquake. /s a result the population has been generally complacent about the risk of earthquakes. 1uring the last seven or eight years, the occurrence and damage caused by some earthquakes "magnitude between 6 and 8& inside the country or near the country's border, has raised the awareness among the general people and the government as well. The damage has been mainly restricted to rural areas or towns near the epicentre, but there has been some instances of damage in urban areas 5# to 3## km away. The writer had the opportunity to visit 2hittagong along with his departmental colleague 1r. M./. /nsary to see the earthquake induced damages following three local earthquakes. ,ome of the photographs taken by the writer are presented which show the damage caused by these earthquakes. ;ig.3 shows the collapse of an under$construction reinforced concrete frame building that killed several people in the port city of 2hittagong due to the :ov. 73, 344% magnitude 8.# earthquake at the 0angladesh$Myanmar border. This is a typical e ample of faulty design and construction, collapse occurring at a very low level of shaking, about 3## km from the epicenter of the earthquake. This earthquake also caused some cracks in some buildings and walls in the 2hittagong and 0andarban region, and collapse of a potion of an under$ construction earthen dam. The Auly 77, 3444 magnitude 5.3 earthquake with its epicenter very near the island of Moheshkhali, off the coast of the tourist spot of 2o 's 0a)ar, caused e tensive damage and collapse of rural mud$walled houses. This earthquake e posed the vulnerability of mud$walled houses, which is quite common in many parts of rural 0angladesh. 2racks and spalling of plaster were observed in some buildings. 2oncrete column of a cyclone shelter was severely damaged ";ig.7&. ,oon after the Auly 7%, 7##' magnitude 5.8 0arkal$*angamati earthquake, the writer visited *angamati and the badly affected village of @olabunia, 0arkal Bpa)illa, which is about one and half hour -ourney by speed boat from *angamati. 0rick masonry buildings of @olabunia suffered severe damage, brick boundary wall collapsed, and several mud$walled houses were sub-ected to severe damage to partial collapse of its walls. ?arge crack developed for a long distance along the river, indicative of soil movement toward the river. ,lumping of part of the river bank also occurred at one place. ?ocal people reported emission of bubbles in the river during an aftershock ;ig.' shows a long school building in *angamati that developed crack in its wall, while ;igs.6 to 8 present damage in @olabunia. In 2hittagong city, about 4# km away from the epicenter, the earthquake caused ground settlement and cracks ";ig.%& in the +ublic ?ibrary building and damaged an electric transformer. In addition, minor earthquakes are frequently occurring in the 2hittagong area causing a good deal of an iety among the people there. 1haka, located in the central region of 0angladesh, could be affected by any of the four earthquake source )ones, presented earlier. /nother point of ma-or concern is that there are active faults near the city also. This was reali)ed during the 34 1ecembr 7##3 magnitude 6R 1haka earthquake that caused panic among many city residents. The epicenter was very close to 1haka city. ;rightened people in several high rise buildings rushed down the stairs, as they felt considerable shaking in the upper floors. The location of a probable earthquake source so near 1haka with the probable earthquake magnitude needs to be further investigated. The 344' 0angladesh :ational 0uilding 2ode provides guidelines for earthquake resistant design. The code provides a seismic )oning map which divides 0angladesh into three seismic )onesC The north$northeast potion which includes ,ylhet, Mymensingh, 0ogra, *angpur falls in the )one Klia$le to se(ere damageK "#.75g motion&. The middle and southeast portion which includes 1ina-pur, ,ira-gan-, :aogaon, 1haka, ;eni, 2hittagong fall in the )one L lia$le to moderate damageK "#.35g motion&. The rest of the country in the south$west falls in the )one L lia$le to slight damageK "#.%5g motion&. /ll the above discussions were intended to show that we are, indeed, living with the possibility of a ma-or earthquake affecting ma-or cities of 0angladesh. This may occur at any time. :e t we need to think about the e tent of damage likely for such earthquakes. The urban areas in 0angladesh have developed in a fast pace to accommodate the increasing population resulting in e tensive construction of multi$storied buildings. In the absence of legal enforcement of the building code in the country and lack of earthquake awareness in the country, many multistoried buildings have been constructed without proper earthquake consideration. The various factors contributing to the earthquake risk in the urban and rural areas of 0angladesh may be summari)ed belowC
$ ' sence of earthquake $ 'wareness% $ (igh population density and construction lacking earthquake resistant design $ ' sence of legal enforcement of uilding code and its seismic design pro#isions $ Poor quality of construction materials and improper construction method $ Economic limitations $ Possi ility of fire out reaks due to rupture of gas pipelines or electric short$circuit during an earthquake and inadequate fire fighting facilities

16

Earthquake in Bangladesh
$ .nadequate road width and space etween uildings pre#enting rescue operations and fire$ fighting #ehicles to reach certain areas% $ .nadequate e,it )at the same time* for the occupants of a uilding during an emergency% $ /ack of facilities )rescue equipment, trained staff, medical personnel, medical facilities* and preparedness for emergency response and reco#ery operations following an earthquake% $ /ack of earthquake resistant design of life line facilities which include power plants, power stations, ridges, communication control stations, gas and water supply stations etc%

The buildings in 1haka city may be broadly classified into two groupsC unreinforced brick masonry "B*M& buildings and reinforced concrete frame "*2;& buildings. B*M buildings have been observed to behave poorly during earthquakes and they can be more dangerous if they are 6 or more stories high, or built on 5 inch walls, which is not uncommon in 1haka. *2; construction can also pose equivalent danger if earthquake resistant design provisions are not followed, this has been amply demonstrated in recent earthquakes of 0hu- and I)mit. Economic reasons, lack of quality control in construction and use of poor quality of materials all contribute to the high vulnerability of buildings. / recent building survey, funded by 0angladesh Ministry of ,cience and Technology research grant, in parts of ,utrapur, ?albagh and Iest 1hanmondi reveals concentration of multi$storied B*M buildings in the older part of the city. Ihile the percentage of B*M buildings in ,utrapur area of the old city was found to be around 85O, the same in the relatively new Iest 1hanmondi was found to be around 67O. Bsing 2hinese building damage data, the writer has estimated that an intensity >III earthquake could result in complete or partial collapse of more than 5O and serious damage to around 35O buildings. Intensity >III corresponds roughly to the ground motion of #.35g assigned to 1haka city in the 0uilding 2ode. This is a preliminary rough estimate, more detailed survey and analysis is necessary for reliable damage and loss estimation. ;oundation problems such as earthquake induced ground settlement, liquefaction of loose sandy deposits under water or amplification of ground motion in certain soft soil areas or filled up areas of the city may also substantially increase the damage of buildings. ?ocal soil effects can thus lead to intensity greater than >III in certain areas of the city causing more damage. Earthquake .i"a"ter *itigation Earthquakes cannot be prevented, but its damage can be reduced with suitable measures. Ihile 0angladesh has achieved remarkable success in disaster management for frequently occurring ha)ards such as cyclone, tornado and floods, it is at an infant stage with regard to earthquakes. Ie have a long way to go, but at least in the past few years, some encouraging activities have started and are continuing with both individual and institutional efforts. The =overnment has also stressed the importance for developing a national earthquake management system and has taken steps in this regard. The 1epartment of 2ivil Engineering, 0angladesh Bniversity of Engineering and Technology "0BET& has been involved in earthquake engineering education, research and consultancy services for several years. The 1epartment took the lead role in the preparation of the 344' national building code which included a new seismic )oning map and earthquake resistant design provisions. The department proposed the formation of a national centre for earthquake engineering at 0BET and subsequently got B,/I1 funding for a link pro-ect with >irginia Tech, B,/. 0BET has also been largely involved in the formation of 0angladesh Earthquake ,ociety "0E,& in 7##7. The first election of the e ecutive body of 0E, was held in 7##'. 0E, is a multi$disciplinary national professional society dedicated to the cause of preparing the nation to face the threat of possible earthquakes. The organi)ation is e pected to create a bridge linking different sections of the people, working together with the government, to achieve a common goal of reducing the earthquake risk. 0E,, in collaboration with the Ministry of ;ood, 1isaster Management and *elief "M;1M*& and the 1isaster Management 0ureau "1M0& has already organi)ed several seminars. Earthquake research centers or groups have been formed at several universities, what is needed ne t is recognition of these groups and collaboration among different groups and individuals. Modern digital seismic instruments, recently installed, are being operated by 0BET and 1haka Bniversity, with government and foreign funding. :on$governmental organi)ations and international organi)ations are also participating in this effort. 0E, is publishing a newsletter that gives information on recent activities, earthquake news and articles of interest. The society is also aiming to develop a website which would be an information resource for interested people. 0E, will also publish relevant manuals or books. ;or earthquake disaster mitigation, both professional and government solution is needed. +rofessional solution will be provided by engineers, architects, planners, geologists on technical aspects and social scientists, non$governmental organi)ations and mass media on social aspects. In the professional solution, civil engineers have the leading role to play, since it is the collapse of civil engineering structures that result in earthquake disasters. ;or the estimation of probable ground motion, engineers and geologists should work together. ;inancial institutions, builders and industrialists would be required to support the professional solution. =overnment solution includes

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Earthquake in Bangladesh
the involvement of the concerned ministries and government or semi$government agencies in implementing the professional solution through policy making and policy enforcement. It needs to be clearly determined who would have regulatory -urisdiction over what. ;or earthquake disaster mitigation, the following measures should be given top priorityC *ncrease ,u$lic a&areness a$out earthquakes through mass media# education at school!# training# earthquake drills# ,u$lications etc% 2efined assessment of ,ro$a$le ground motion and identifying local soil effects 2elia$le assessment of ,ro$a$le damage to $uildings and other structures% 5,dating of the $uilding code Legal enforcement of $uilding code% Building insurance to ,romote earthquake resistant construction% Seismic strengthening of critical structures and facilities% De(elo,ing la$oratory and testing facilities for research% De(elo,ing lo&8cost seismic strengthening techniques so that indi(idual house o&ners are encouraged to ado,t them% Training of engineers# ,lanners# architects and construction &orkers% Automatic safety shutdo&n system for gas and electricity during a ma1or earthquake% De(elo,ing facilities for ,ost earthquake rescue and reco(ery% 5r$an including trans,ort! ,lanning of the city to mitigate earthquake effects% *m,lementation of national earthquake disaster management ,lan in(ol(ing (arious ,rofessionals# officials and (olunteers% Earthquake )ip" :ew 2onstruction $ ,trengthening .ere are some useful tips for new construction and strengthening of e isting buildings. 0uildings should be designed by a competent engineer following the 344' 0angladesh :ational 0uilding 2ode. Earthquake resistant design involves the use of steel which is a ductile material. It is not economically possible to design a building to resist the e treme earthquake forces without some damage. The building code allows some damage at preferred locations but prevents building collapse and provides safety to life and property. ,teel gives the building necessary properties to resist collapse if they are provided at the correct locations of the structure. ,tructural elements that provide the earthquake resistance include concrete or masonry shear walls, concrete frame, braced frame, rigid floor system and proper connections between them. +roper detailing of the steel reinforcements at critical locations of the building structure is of great significance. /2I "/merican 2oncrete Institute& code gives seismic design detailing requirements for reinforced concrete buildings. !ther standard building codes such as I027### may also be consulted. ,trengthening of non$engineered buildings can be done following the I/EE "International /ssociation for Earthquake Engineering& manual on =uidelines for Earthquake *esistant :on$ Engineered 2onstruction. 2ertain building types are likely to be more susceptible to serious damage or collapse and thus require structural assessment for earthquakes by a competent engineer. ,uch buildings if not properly designed may need special strengthening measures. ,ome typical e amples are given belowC
$ +ld 0RM uildings with cracks in walls and roofs on tim er eams% $ 0RM uildings on 1 walls% $ Multi$storied 0RM uildings with discontinuous lintel% $ Multi$storied RC2 uilding with open parking space on ground floor% Soft$story action or weak column$strong eam action should e pre#ented% $ Multistoried uildings with large cantile#er pro3ections% $ Multi$storied uildings of irregular )unsymmetrical* shape or ha#ing set acks % $ Buildings ha#ing mass eccentricity% $ $ $ $ $ Buildings with flat plates% Buildings ha#ing ele#ated water tanks or swimming pool on roof top% 'd3acent multi$storied uildings with little gap, hence possi ility of pounding% Slender high rise uildings% Buildings on soft soil )fill material*%

,hen an Earthquake o!!ur"& 1uring an earthquake, people are in-ured or killed by falling plaster, collapsing walls, roofs or falling of heavy ob-ects. 2ollapsing buildings and vibrations can cause short circuits and electric fires. ?ighted gas or stoves may also cause fires. This creates panic and confusion.

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Earthquake in Bangladesh
1o's and 1on'ts during an Earthquake If you are indoorsC $ ,tay calm. $ If you are in the ground floor and you can get out very quickly "5$3# secs&, rush outside to an open space away from buildings or electric posts. Bsually earthquake shaking lasts less than a minute. $ If you do not have time to go outside, stay at selected places inside your buildings which are relatively stronger against earthquakes such as near strong columns or near closely spaced walls in both directions. ,tay away from outer verandah, balconies, cantilever pro-ections, outer walls, doors and windows. $ =et under a table or a sturdy cot so that you are not hurt by falling ob-ects from above. $ ,tay away from glass windows, almirahs, showcases, mirrors etc. $ ,tay away from falling plaster, bricks or stones. $ 1o not rush towards broken or -ammed doors or staircase. 'f you are outdoor"& $ Move to nearby open space. $ @eep away from tall chimneys, buildings, balconies and other pro-ections. $ 0e careful, hoardings or lamps in the street may fall on you. 1o's and 1on'ts following an Earthquake $ ,witch off all electrical appliances such as refrigerator, T>. $ Turn off the gas. $ / battery operated radio will help you to get important messages. $ Iear shoes to protect your feet. $ 1o not crowd around damaged areas or buildings. $ @eep the streets clear for emergency services. $ 1o not waste water. $ Bse first aid if someone is hurt. 1o not move seriously hurt people. Iait for medical help to arrive. $ If possible, assist children, old and disabled persons and the sick. $ 0e prepared for more shocks which always follow a ma-or earthquake. 0on!luding 1e%ark" Earthquakes pose a gigantic threat to the economy and well being of this country. Ihile thousands of buildings may collapse in the cities, serious casualties could be in tens of thousands. ,eismic risks should be correctly assessed and subsequently mitigated to the e tent feasible. / comprehensive and well$coordinated earthquake disaster mitigation plan for the urban as well as rural areas should be developed without further delay and implemented on a priority basis with available resources. Earthquake engineering research centres should be promoted to be focal points for providing e pert technical guidance to the country for earthquake disaster mitigation. ,uch centres can also provide effective education and training of related professionals. 0uilding codes need to be updated and improved. Effective interaction and dialogue between the technical professionals and the government authorities should be ensured. ,uccess of earthquake disaster mitigation efforts will depend on the blending of technical and political solutions into best practices for the reduction of unacceptable risk and sustainable development. +riorities should be established for strengthening the most critical structures and lifeline facilities. The participation of various government, non$government and voluntary organi)ations, academic institutions, community leadership and media should be encouraged and integrated for ma imum benefit. The author is Associate 4rofessor# De,artment of 'i(il Engineering# B5ET and Editor# Bangladesh Earthquake Societ

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Earthquake in Bangladesh

)he 1225 Bengal Earthquake

.ow prepared are we for any recurrenceJ 1r. /ftab /lam @han The 3<<5 0engal Earthquake, also known as Manikgan- Earthquake, is one of the ma-or earthquakes triggered in the historical past. It is not only the 3<<5 0engal Earthquake, the 3%87 0engal$/rakan Earthquake located somewhere in 2hittagong hill tracts and the 343< Earthquake located near ,rimongal P @ishoregan- "J& are the two other ma1or earthquakes of great concern in 0angladesh. In addition, the well familiar 3<4% =reat /ssam Earthquake that devastated almost entire 0angladesh is categori)ed as the great earthquake due to its (< magnitude on *ichter scale. .owever, the 3<<5 0engal Earthquake with its possible epicenter near @udalia in ,aturia "Manikgan-& and magnitude between % and < is of great concern for a megacity like 1haka. The earthquake damage and consequent casualty risk of 1haka are very high because of its very high population of about 3' million and large percentage of unplanned buildings and structures. The earthquake disaster risk inde "E1*I& for 1haka stands top among the twenty high risk cities in the world. The earthquake of 34 1ecember 7##3 with its location 7'.8o : 4#.6o E, magnitude 6.5 $ 6.<, and focal depth 3# km and couple of other low magnitude earthquakes in the mid seventies located near 1haka possibly are the knocking alarm for 1haka city. *oger 0ilham and +hilip England, in their paper published in the 9ature science maga)ine, opined that 3<4% =reat /ssam Earthquake constitutes a significant seismic threat to nearby densely populated regions of 0angladesh and to the very large city of 1haka. My investigation and assessment suggests that 3<<5 0engal Earthquake pro-ects much greater threat to metropolis 1haka. The return period calculation suggests that 3<<5 0engal earthquake is likely to recur by 7#35 having return$period character of 3'# years. Aohn I. Ihitney of B,=, opined that % large or 3 great earthquake is likely to occur in every 3'5 years in and around Keastern seismic beltK of the Indian plate. 2haracterising 3<<5 0engal Earthquake as a ma-or one there stands a high probability for its recurrence between 7#35 and 7#7#. The field investigations e hibit an average fault displacement of % m occurred along several neo$faults aligned with 1haleshwari and 0uriganga rivers. These active faults have potentials for generating seismic energy of magnitude as high as %.5. In addition, several local shallow faults and high amplified liquefiable )ones within 1haka city where large number of buildings and structures are constructed without following standard building codes are certainly in a very high stake of earthquake disaster risk. The building collapse at ,akhari 0a)ar and ,avar and building tilt at couple of localities in 1haka city in recent times indicate its vulnerability to earthquake damage. The classic e ample of ignorance and negligence has been set due to ,avar event where collapse of 4$storey large garments factory cost hundreds of lives and caused considerable property damage without an earthquake. It is simply unimaginable what a magnitude of loss of lives and property would occur in the sites characterising similar subsurface conditions during an earthquake. /lthough, the present article is not written for describing the possible reasons of ,avar event, but temptations could not be resisted as to the inquisitive minds tried to e plore the possible reasons. It is learnt from various news paper reports and seminars what some survived persons e pressed pertaining to the building collapse. /mong the information, the notable are, a& there was no boiler e plosion, b& the heavy machinery used to shake entire building when started, and c& more importantly the entire building used to tremble when high horse power pumps were used to abstract groundwater from subsurface. Ihen these information are critically analysed there emerged certain conclusionsC The structure was not built on the geologic basement which is commonly known as engineering bed rock. .owever, the engineering bed rock might be confused with the geologic bed rock if the same is situated over a buried channel characterised by channel fill materials. The shear strength of these channel fills is much less than the shear strength of the geologic bed rock. In addition, the buried channels are highly potential from groundwater resource point of view that continuously keeps the channel fill materials in saturated and wet condition. /s a result, the ambient shear strength remains quite low. The second factor is the withdrawal of groundwater with large pumping capacity that had developed interim cone of depressions with downward pull of hydrostatic pressure towards the cone of depressions. /s a result, the structure used to tremble during the pumping of groundwater. .ence, the shaking of the structure due to long time operation of heavy machineries and the trembling due to groundwater pumping had continuously weakened the base of the foundation and eventually the structure collapsed. / ma-or buried river has been identified between Tongi fault in the south and the :ayarhat fault in the north. /n appreciable hori)ontal off set has also been identified along :ayarhat fault. The area between such buried river and fault is an ideal site for

20

Earthquake in Bangladesh
structural collapse. Bnless, such sites are definitely identified, the risk of structural failure would remain high. 2oming back to the discussion on the recurrence of the 3<<5 0engal Earthquake and the possible consequence in 1haka city, it is high time to have subsurface imaging of the entire 1haka city and identify the )ones characterised by faults, gully$fills and buried channels. Bnless this is done, the micro$)oning earthquake ha)ard map of this megacity is unlikely to be prepared. Bntil such ha)ard map for 1haka city is prepared, the pre$disaster physical planning and earthquake damage risk reduction will remain at a tell$tale stage. *ecurrence of an earthquake is not a fairy$tale rather it is an inherent character of each earthquake event of all magnitudes globally. Dr% Afta$ Alam /han is 4rofessor# De,artment of 0eology# 5ni(ersity of Dhaka%

3ei"%i! *i!ro+onation of .haka 0ity

1r. Mehedi /hmed /nsary The 7##3 =u-arat earthquake in India, the 7##' 0am earthquake in Iran and the 7##5 Mu)afarrabad earthquake in +akistan and India revealed the vulnerability of Knon$earthquake$ proofK cities and villages in /sia. In 3<4%, an earthquake of magnitude <.3 caused serious damages to buildings in the north$eastern part of India "including 0angladesh& and 3567 people were killed. *ecently, 0ilham et al. "7##3& pointed out that there is high possibility that a large earthquake will occur around the .imalayan region. The current population around this region is at least 5# times greater than the population of 3<4% and cities like 2hittagong, 1haka, @athmandu and =uwahati have populations e ceeding several millions. It is a cause for great concern that the ne t great earthquake may occur in this region at any time. The findings of this study would benefit engineers, city planners, developers, emergency personnel, government officials, and anyone who may be concerned with the potential consequences of earthquakes in 1haka. This may provide useful information regarding earthquake ha)ards for a given site, and should be an integral part of the whole process of economic and social development for the city. *ethodology ,eismic ha)ards due to local site effects such as soil amplification and liquefaction can be estimated by combining the available soil parameters with the current ha)ard models. 1ue to recent improvement in the availability and quality of =I, "=eographical Information ,ystem& technology the current research utilised =I, technology for seismic micro)onation of 1haka city. / soil database of 75' boreholes is developed in M, EN2E??. The soil data are used to develop site amplification and soil liquefaction potential assessment. 0oth of these site effects are integrated in =I, platform for combined ha)ard assessment. Three past historical earthquakes are used as scenario events namely the 3<<5 0engal earthquake, the 3<4% =reat Indian earthquake and the 343< ,rimangal earthquake. Intensity values obtained for these events are calibrated against attenuation laws to check the applicability of the laws for this study. Bsing these laws, bedrock +eak =round /cceleration "+=/& values are obtained. ;inally, a bedrock +=/ value for the scenario events is selected. +=/ values are also converted into intensity values to integrate the effect of site amplification as well as liquefaction. 4eology of the "tudy area& Euaternary sediments consisting of deltaic and alluvial deposits of the =anges, 0rahmaputra and Meghna rivers and their numerous tributaries underlie more than <#O of 0angladesh. /ccording to the study of Morgan and McIntire "3454&, there are two ma-or areas of +leistocene sediments, commonly known as Madhupur tract and 0arind tract. The Madhupur block lies between the Aamuna and !ld 0rahmaputra rivers and 8 to '#m above the mean sea level. The current study area is situated on the southern tip of the Madhupur tract. Two characteristic units cover the city and its surroundings, i.e., the Madhupur clay of +leistocene age and alluvial deposits of recent age. The Madhupur clay is the oldest sediment e posed in and around the city area. The alluvial deposits are characterised by flood plains, depression and abandoned channels. The geological map of 1haka metropolitan area is presented in ;igure 3. The subsurface sedimentary sequence, up to the e plored depth of '##m, shows three distinct entitiesH one is the Madhupur clay formation of +leistocene age and is characteri)ed by reddish plastic clay with silt and very fine sand particles. This Madhupur clay formation uncomfortably overlies the 1upi Tila formation of +leistocene age composed of medium to coarse yellowish brown sand and occasional gravel. The incised channels and depression within the city are floored by recent alluvial flood plain deposits and is further subdivided into lowland /lluvium and high land

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Earthquake in Bangladesh
/lluvium "I/,/ 3443&. ;igure 7 shows :orth$south soil profile of 1haka city along Bttarkhan$2hina 0angladesh ;riendship 0ridge ",arker, 7##6& 1egional "ei"%i!ity The ma-or earthquakes that have affected 0angladesh since the middle of the last century are presented in Table 3. 3oil data :ecessary soil data was collected from different relevant sources of 1haka 2ity and compiled in a database using Microsoft E cel. / total of 75' boreholes with ,+T data were collected from different organi)ations and used to study site amplification and soil liquefaction potential characteristics of municipality area. =enerally for building construction, boring is done up to a depth of 5# ft only. /mong the compiled database, 7# boreholes with ,+T$: data up to a depth of 3## ft "'# m& were directly carried out by 0BET for checking the authenticity of other collected data. ;igure ' shows borehole locations. (""e""%ent of "ei"%i! ha+ard In the regional seismic loss estimation analysis it is considered necessary to determine the bedrock motion in the region. The most common method involves the use of an empirical attenuation relationship. These relationships communicate a given ground motion parameter in a region as function of the si)e and location of an earthquake event. To pick the most appropriate attenuation law for predicting rock motions, 3<<5 0engal earthquake, 3<4% =reat Indian earthquake and 343< ,rimangal earthquake are considered. 1istance versus +=/ values for earthquakes is plotted on log$log paper. ;rom isoseismal maps, the epicentral distances of different locations and their intensities are found. These intensities are converted into +=/ by Trifunac and 0rady "34%5& equation and were plotted on preceding figures. It is found that Mc=uire "34%<& equations follow the +=/ trend of the study area. 3<4% =reat Indian Earthquake is selected as the scenario event which has a +=/ value #.37g "gQ4<3 cmPs7& at bedrock level. *i!rotre%or ob"er#ation" Microtremor observation was carried out at 1haka city during 7##7 by the author using equipment supplied by the Bniversity of Tokyo, Aapan. /ll the measurement points are shown on the map in ;igure '. The equipment used was Tokyo 0uttan ,ervices =E!1/,$3#$761, system connected to a tria ial accelerometer with a natural period of 3 second. In this e periment, the recording system operated continuously for about 8 minutes, with a sampling rate of 3## .). ;or the analysis of microtremors, base line corrections were done and then a 0utterworth band pass filter "#.6# to 75 .)& was applied to the data. ;rom the processed data si teen 7#6< point windows were selected and ;ourier ,pectra for :,, EI and B1 components were computed with a +ar)en window. Then the mean curve for si teen spectra both for :, and EI components were calculated. ;inally, the :akamura spectral ratio was obtained as followsC H7 : ;9S ;E.! < 5D *i!rotre%or H56 ratio" #er"u" nu%eri!al tran"fer fun!tion" To validate the results obtained from microtremor observations, .P> spectral ratios were compared with the transfer functions obtained from a one$dimensional numerical simulation using the computer program ,./@E, which consists of the response analysis of hori)ontally layered soils under seismic e citation, with linear equivalent soil behaviour. ,imilar transfer functions from soil column using ,./@E were also estimated for areas where no microtremor observations were made. Bse of geotechnical data for each of the sites and a synthesis of drilling data e tracted from the e isting subsurface database of 1haka enabled to determine soil columns representative of each site. In most of the soil columns, a dense sand layer was encountered at a depth of '# m and in some cases, silty clay later was found. Bsing the soil configurations a transfer function was calculated for each site using the ,./@E numerical code. In addition, recordings of background noise by microtremor observations for each site were used to calculate average .P> spectral ratios. =ood overall concordance between the transfer functions obtained by the two methods is observed. The amplification and the fundamental frequency obtained by the two methods are almost similar for all the sites studied. ;rom the frequency map, ward areas of 3.< times of amplification and 7.5 times amplification are separated. ;igure 6 shows map of amplification at fundamental frequencies

22

Earthquake in Bangladesh
of 1haka 2ity. ;rom this map, it was found that all the 4# wards are fullyPpartially affected by the 3.< times amplification and only '8 wards was partially affected by the 7.5 times amplification. 7iquefa!tion analy"i" ?iquefaction phenomena "process of turning to liquid& have been recorded and developed in many parts of the world where ground shaking is frequent and soils consist of loose fine sand under water table. 0angladesh including 1haka is largely an alluvial plain consisting of loose fine sand and silt deposits. /lthough the older alluvium consisting of mainly silty clay with deeper ground water table is less susceptible to liquefaction, the recent deposits consisting of loose fine sand with shallower water table along the river flood plains may liquefy during a severe earthquake. The ground water table is quite deep "7# to 75 m& in most places e cept the areas near the rivers. 2learly liquefaction is a serious component of the earthquake ha)ard in certain parts of 1haka as indicated by /nsary and *ashid "7###& and needs to be considered. / simple method suggested by ,eed et al. "34<'& was used here to evaluate a liquefaction resistance factor, ;?. In this method required parameters are ,+T :$values, grain$si)e distribution curves of soils, overburden pressure, and estimated peak surface acceleration. The ;? method defines that ground water level to be considered as less than 3#m from the ground surface. The liquefaction resistance factor, ;?, for the top 7#m of soil, and the resulting liquefaction potential, +? for the 75' sites were estimated. The total area of 1haka city are classed into two categories, one is liquefiable area whose I? S 5.# and another is non$liquefiable area e hibiting I? T 5.#. ;rom the liquefaction map, areas of liquefied and areas not liquefied have been separated using =I, program. ;igure 5 shows the map of liquefied areas and not liquefied areas. 'ntegration of "ite effe!t" in the 4'3 en#iron%ent Every analysis region is differentH therefore the quantification of the secondary site effects and the weighting scheme for combining the various seismic ha)ards is heuristic, based on -udgment and e pert opinion about the influence of local site conditions in the region and the e actness of the available geologic and geotechnical information. .owever that is not the circumstances in 0angladesh. .euristic rules for quantification and combination were used which were developed by ,tephanie and @iremid-ian "3446&. The bedrock$level ground shaking in the region was ascertained. The shaking was depicted in terms of peak ground motion values. The regional distribution of bedrock$level shaking was estimated as #.37g. 0edrock level +=/ was measured as constant since the study area is small. It is decided that the final combined seismic ha)ard would be quantified in terms of Modified Marcelli Intensity "MMI&. There are several relationships for converting +=/ to MMI. The equation used here is developed by Trifunac and 0rady "34%5&. The following heuristic rules are used to quantify the seismic ha)ard attributable to liquefactionC ;or regions with liquefiable soils with high liquefaction potential MMI?IEQ MMI=,R7 ;or regions with liquefiable soils with moderate liquefaction potential MMI?IEQ MMI=,R3 and otherwiseC MMI?IEQ # The rules for combining the assorted ha)ards are based on e pert opinion "after ,tephanie and @iremid-ian, 3446& about the comparative precision of the ha)ard information and the behaviour of the local geology. 0y over$laying the regional maps for each ha)ard as shown in ;igures 6 and ;igure 5 in =I, environment, the 1haka 2ity had been separated into four groups as areas of 3.< times amplification, areas of 7.5 times amplification, areas of 3.< times amplification plus liquefaction and areas of 7.5 times amplification plus liquefaction. ;inally, ;igure 8, the regional distribution of the final combined seismic ha)ard "MMI;& was produced. 0on!lu"ion" The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for using =I, technology to integrate the various components of a regional multi$ha)ard seismic risk analysis. The seismic risk analysis presented here includes local site effects such as soil amplification and liquefaction. / soil database of 75' boreholes has also been developed in M, EN2E??. The soil data were used to develop site amplification and soil liquefaction potential maps of the city. 0oth of these site effects

23

Earthquake in Bangladesh
are integrated in =eographical Information ,ystem "=I,& platform for combined ha)ard assessment. The =I,$based analysis is useful to engineers, planners, emergency personnel, government officials, and anyone else who may be concerned with the potential consequences of seismic activity in a given region. The results are presented in the form of micro)one maps which will serve as an effective means of transferring information from the scientific community to the professional community of decision makers involved in ha)ard and risk mitigation. )he author i" rofe""or$ .epart%ent of 0i#il Engineering$ B8E)

4otes5 =3agnitude is directly related to energy release due to ,late mo(ement% *t has a unique (alue for an earthquake% *t (aries from > to >?% ==*ntensity is related to human feelings# $eha(iour of secondary structures and structural $eha(iour% *t has different (alues at different locations for a ,articular earthquake% *t (aries from * to @**

1haka 2ity and Earthquake

)he ri"k" and the !hallenge" /rchitect .asan /hmed 2howdhury 0angladesh is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. /lthough it is located in a region of significant seismic activity, most of the people do not perceive seismic risk to be of great importance. The severest )ones include northern part of 1ina-pur, *angpur, Mymensingh, ,ylhet, Tangail, northern part of 1haka, @hulna, Aessore, @ushtia, and 2hittagong. The 3<<5 earthquake of Manikgan-, the 3<4% earthquake of =reat /ssam, the 343< earthquake of ,rimangal, the 34'# earthquake of 1ubai, and the 345# earthquake of /ssam are all quite matured to recur at any time and may create devastation in 0angladesh. ,adly though, the awareness regarding the nature and the level of earthquake activities in 0angladesh are not very clearly discernible. /s a result, conscious efforts on collection of data on micro$seismicity are lacking, although the occurrence of small magnitude earthquakes in 0angladesh is quite frequent. /ccording to the e perts, the northern part of the country, covering greater ,ylhet, Mymensingh, *angpur, and a portion of the 2hittagong .ill Tracts are very much e posed to earthquakes. / good background of historical earthquake information is essential to evaluate the seismicity. Information on earthquake events in and around 0angladesh is available for the last over '5# years. The earthquakes that affected 0angladesh and its surrounding regions, including the historical earthquakes, are on record from 3886. The earthquake record suggests that more than one hundred moderate to large earthquakes occurred inside 0angladesh since 34##, out of which more than 85 events occurred after 348#. ;ifteen new epicentres have been identified inside 0angladesh since Aanuary 7##3. This clearly indicates an increased frequency of earthquakes in 0angladesh. /lthough 0angladesh is e tremely vulnerable to seismic activity, the nature and the level of this activity is very poorly defined. The main constraint is the earthquake observational and monitoring facilities, which is markedly absent in 0angladesh. :evertheless, records of the earthquakes show that 0angladesh and its surrounding areas e perienced at least 3### earthquakes having magnitude greater than or equal to 6 in *eichter scale in the last 3## years. Table 3 presents a list of historical earthquakes in the neighbourhood of 0angladesh. The metropolis 1haka is an integral part in the southern tip of Madhupur tract encircled by some very active tectonic units. 309 E 5. The scope of the study has been limited to evaluate the effects of earthquake in 0angladesh in general and 1haka city in particular. The paper sources various write$ups on disaster management and issues related with earthquake response, mainly from the reference materials available at the 1isaster Management 0ureau and earthquake related websites. The paper is structured in the following sequence. a. .ow risky is 1haka cityJ b. Ihat could be the consequences of an earthquake in 1haka 2ityJ

24

Earthquake in Bangladesh
c. .ow can we meet the challenges of risk factorsJ d. !pen forum H9, 1'3:; '3 .H(:( 0');? The recurrence of earthquakes in an earthquake prone region cannot be prevented. *ather what could be done is to make a prediction and issue warning to minimi)e loss of lives and property. /lthough precise prediction is not always possible, an acceptable valid prediction of an earthquake will certainly minimi)e the loss of lives and property. Most earthquake e perts and civil engineers feel that all the non$engineered structures of 1haka city would totally collapse in a moderate intensity earthquake. This view was -ointly sponsored by the ,afety /ssistance ;or Emergencies ",/;E& and the 2ivil Engineering 1ivision of the Institution of Engineers 0angladesh "IE0&. 0ased on the statistical data of 1haka city, the e perts assume that only five percent of all houses are of reinforced concrete structure, '# percent are of engineered masonry, nine percent of non$engineered masonry, five percent are mud$wall structures are of combined wood and bamboo. The ,urvey Module of this study was 9one 3#, Bttara ,ector that is in the danger )one. ;igC ,atellite Image of 9one 3# Bttara. ,ource www.geo$cities.com/ sample study based on questionnaire survey and visual inspection of the e isting buildings of the old part of 1haka has been conducted recently in 0BET, which shows that about 8# per cent of the structures in that area are non$engineered. /mong these non$engineered structures, over 5# percent are made of flammable materials. 0esides, most of the roads in that area are inaccessible to fire$fighting vehicles. /ccording to the Earthquake *isk Inde "E*I&, 1haka is unfortunately among the riskiest cities in the world. K/lthough geologically 1haka is in the second earthquake$prone )one, its vulnerability is due to its non$engineered structures,K according to the e perts. ,o, the most pertinent questions referring to 1haka 2ity's earthquake vulnerability, and ha)ard reduction and response capabilities areC a. Ihat are we going to do with the flawed e istent structuresJ b. Ihat is our level of preparedness to meet the impending threat of earthquakeJ ;rom the recent collapse of the ,pectrum garments building May 7##5 at ,avar, and the sudden collapse of the +hoeni garments building in the city in ;ebruary, 7##8 it may be concluded that these are due to structural failure the trial e perience of an earthquake situation. ,H() 0987. BE )HE 1E387)3 9/ (< E(1)H=8(:E '< .H(:( 0');? Immediately after an earthquake in 1haka, some of the matters that we shall have to address and manage includeC a. Medical i. / ma-or earthquake would create a tremendous demand of emergency medical services ii. In-uries serious enough to require hospitali)ation are estimated to be so high that the hospitals may not be able to cope up with the e isting infrastructures, and there will be acute shortage of hospital beds, medical supplies, doctors, nurses and support staffs. iii. .ealthcare may be seriously impaired by damage to the hospital buildings and temporary measures may have to be adopted. b. Economic i. 0usiness communities may not be prepared adequately to respond to an earthquake. ii. Economic damage to the area could be caused by failure of banking systems, specially those who use electronic means for funds transfers, management, etc.

25

Earthquake in Bangladesh
iii. /n earthquake may cause a serious loss of employment. This employment loss could affect the economy. c. *elief efforts i. ;ollowing an earthquake, the affected area may be cut off from its surrounding areas. Therefore, coordination among communities within the affected area is essential for effective emergency response. ii. ;ood supply lines could break down. iii. *ubble and debris resulting from an earthquake may prevent access to the affected area for a considerable length of time. In this event, helicopters may be necessary to lift rescue teams into and casualties out of the area. iv. The first few hours following an earthquake are critical in saving the lives of people trapped in collapsed buildings, where speciali)ed support is needed as quickly as possible. .owever, officials should be prepared to rely on local resources during the initial response period. v. ,everal hours may be required before e ternal personnel and equipment can be mobili)ed for search and rescue, including the military and the fire services. Therefore, local rescuers will be relied upon heavily in the period immediately following the earthquake. d. ,econdary Effects i. The earthquake and aftershocks may trigger one or more secondary events such as landslides, release of ha)ardous materials, dam failure or flooding. ii. ;ires breaking out of control involving ma-or parts of the city are very much likely because of the nature and density of construction in 1haka city. .owever, there may be some individual or small group of fires which may occur as the result of miscellaneous damage$related factors. iii. ,hould high water condition e ist during the time an earthquake occurs, low$lying areas may be flooded. e. ,tructural 1amage 1eath and in-ures are e pected to be caused principally because of failure of man$made structures, particularly old multi$storied buildings of un$reinforced brick and masonry buildings built before the adoption of earthquake$resistant building code. f. Btilities i. In the civil sector there may be minimal communication for a considerable length of time as roads will be disrupted ii. Many gas lines are vulnerable to rupture in the event of an earthquake iii. 2ommercial telephone services are vulnerable, particularly due to the possible rupture of underground cables that cross "earth& faults iv. Electrical power systems are among the most fragile in the event of an earthquake. 0ecause they are also among the most essential of the utilities, even a short$term loss can be a ma-or setback to a community. The loss of electric power during an earthquake may mean no water to fight fires or for drinking, no light or heat, no communication, no sewage pumps, etc. g. Transportation i. 1amage to transportation system may severely hamper recovery efforts following an earthquake. The loss or impairment of ma-or rail and highway links serving 1haka city may significantly increase the difficulty of rescue and relief efforts, and may also have a long$term disrupting effect upon national commerce.

26

Earthquake in Bangladesh
ii. *iver ports of 1haka may suffer setbacks, thus limiting the usefulness of the facilities in relief effort. iii. +artial or limited availability of the runway and airport facilities is e pected following an earthquake. ;acility that relies on electrical power, i.e. navigation aids and runaway lighting, may be out of commission for some period of time, even if emergency power is available. Ihat is our +reparation for any possible quakeJ /fter the ,pectrum disaster it took the 0angladesh /rmy and ;ire ,ervices personnel, rescue equipment, cranes and medical teams %$4 days to finish their operation. Their efforts are most commendable under the circumstances, but when innumerable buildings will collapse in an earthquake, I./T II?? IE 1!J ,ome measures need to be taken immediatelyC i. Identify the vulnerable structures and repair or rebuild them ii. 1raw up a long$term Master +lan not for five years "i.e. the term of an elected government& but for several more years considering the future iii. 1evelop public awareness Bnfortunately, the fault lines around 1haka 2ity are located through the 9ia International /irport and the *ampura T> ,tation. /fter any ma-or quake, we may lose physical communication with the rest of the world as well as the means to air appeal for international support. It is already too late for us to take stepsH but better late than never. /lready we have faced two tragic disasters ,pectrum and +hoeni . /re they not enough to make us stand up and thinkJ Iill we wait for another disaster or a real earthquakeJ Additional sources" '2ED# A??A" *nternational Disaster Data$ase# Belgium Bangladesh 9ational Building 'ode# >BBC HB2*8BST* Acti(e Tectonics S,ecial thanks to >% Bangladesh 0eological Sur(ey *nstitute% A% S4A2SD C% B5ET# De,t% of Architecture E% Tarikul *slam# 4ro1ect 3anager# Disaster 3anagement 4rogramme# 59D4 F% 2ehana Aktar# 0*S 5nit# L0ED G% Ar% 0% A% 'aeser# D&elling De(elo,ment Ltd% H% Ashraful /a$ir 2i,on# architect# B5ET I% *ftekhar Ahmed# architect# B5ET )he author i" in pri#ate pra!ti!e and a po"tgraduate "tudent at the .ept of (r!hite!ture$ B8E) (""e""ing earthquake and t"una%i ri"k in Banglade"h 1r. /ftab /lam @han 0angladesh having been situated in the active plate collision )one, poses a ma-or threat from large earthquakes. It is of ma-or debate, however, as to when and where such ma-or earthquake would strike. .istorical earthquake records suggest that 0angladesh has e perienced at least four ma-or earthquakes of magnitude between % and <, and one great earthquake of magnitude between < and 4 in the past 75# years. These earthquakes are, namelyC 0engal$/rakan earthquake of 3%87, Manikgan- earthquake of 3<<5, =reat /ssam earthquake of 3<4%, ,rimongol earthquake of 343<, and 1hubri earthquake of 34'#. /ll of these earthquakes caused e tensive damage to property and life, and changed geomorphic e pressions such as ground tilt, ground subsidence, and river courses etc., in most part of the 0engal delta. It is also well established that during an earthquake the ma-or damage occurs within 3# 35 km radius from nucleation of an active fault rupture. In the conte t, the 0engal delta of 0angladesh is

27

Earthquake in Bangladesh
characterised by quite a good number of active faults such as Tista fault, @orotoa fault, 0ogra fault, 1haleshwari$0uriganga fault, 1auki fault )one, ,urma$,ari fault, ,ha)iba)ar fault, ?almai fault, ,itakund fault, ,itapahar fault, @olabunia fault, 0andarban fault, and Teknaf fault. ;rom geologic point of view all these faults are most vulnerable to reactivations and ruptures during a ma-or earthquake that would strike nearby the respective fault )ones. The question of 'how far nearby' would depend on the site characteri)ation with respect to liquefaction, ground frequency, amplification, ground acceleration "gUvalue&, and soil types. The pertinent question arises from the devastating tsunami of 1ecember 78, 7##6 that to what e tent 0angladesh is vulnerable to any future tsunami. The historical record do not rule out one to one correlation of the possibility, neither its vulnerability is indicated straight away. 2onsidering the orography of the continental shelf, water depth, and tectonic framework of the 0ay of 0engal, tsunami vulnerability status needs to be recast. The historical records suggest that on night of 33th and 37th !ctober, 3%'% a furious hurricane stroke at the mouth of the river =anges. /t the same time a violent earthquake triggered throwing down a great many houses along the river at @olkata. The water rose to 6#ft higher than the usual level in the river =anges "=entlemen's Magagine, 3%'< 3%'4&. /nother destructive and violent earthquake triggered on /pril 7, 3%87 that was felt all over 0engal and more severely in the northern part of the east coast of the 0ay of 0engal. This earthquake had thrown volumes of water and mud from the fissures. /t a place called 0akerchanak near the coast, a tract of land sank, and 7## people with all their cattle, were lost. In the northwest coast of 2hedua island, about 77 ft above sea level, there said to have caused a permanent submergence of 8# square miles near 2hittagong "0angladesh 1istrict =a)etteers 2hittagong, 34%5&. .owever, the above records do not -ustify that the coastal belt of 0angladesh is tsunamigenic. +rior to characterisation of an area under tsunami vulnerability status, it is important to know the genesis of a tsunami. / tsunami is an oceanic gravity wave generated by submarine earthquakes or by other geological processes such as volcanic eruptions or landslides in the ocean. / train of gravity waves is set up on the surface of the sea by a disturbance in the sea bed such as submarine earthquakes, landslides, or volcanic e plosions. /n earthquake that causes a tsunami is termed as tsunamigenic earthquake. Most large and shallow earthquakes under the sea are tsunamigenic and hence are distributed along the subduction )one of the plate collision margin. /lthough the evidence suggests that most great water waves are caused by fault rupture along the submarine faults, there are other causes. ,ubmarine landslides occurred in ,igami 0ay in Aapan in 347' caused tsunami. These underwater landslides occurred due to triggering of nearby earthquake. ,ometimes a landslide or avalanche of soil and rock on mountain side into a bay, a large lake or even man$made reservoir can produce a deadly local water wave. / famous landslide$induced sea$ wave occurred at ?ituya 0ay, /laska after a local large earthquake on Auly 4, 345<. Iater waves rushed into the opposite shores of the bay as far as 5## m, stripping vegetation in its path. / giant water$wave was produced by a landslide into the >aiont reservoir in Italy in !ctober 348' that caused a large volume of water overtopping the >aiont dam by 3##m and sweeping the valley of the +iave *iver, killing almost '### people. The other known source of great tsunamis is the ma-or volcanic eruptions. The water$wave following the collapse of the top of @rakatoa volcano in 3<<' is one of the most violent geological paro ysms in historic times. @rakatoa Island, in the ,unda ,trait between Aava and ,umatra, with its peak standing to a height of 7###m e perienced numerous earthquakes and volcanic activities during /ugust 3<<', and a total of about 38 km' of ash and pumice had e-ected. !n /ugust 7%, 3<<' the central vents where the island had stood caved in, and there was ocean water 75# m deep. The sudden collapse produced an enormously energetic tsunami. The water$wave was not high enough in the deep water to sink ships present in the ,unda ,trait, but when it reached shallow water along the coast it washed away 385 villages to no trace and killed more than '8,### people with a water height more than '5 m along the shore. 1evastating episode of a tsunami depends on the volume of on$rush of stressed water and the velocity of the on$rush water front. Ihen a fault rupture occurs in the ocean bed, the upward motion of the faulted block e erts pressure in the overlying water column eventually stressing and moving it. The velocity of the wave fronts of the stressed water depends on water depth and the acceleration due to gravity. The relationship becomes evident wherein velocity is equal to the square root of the product of water depth and acceleration due to gravity. The nature, e tent, and magnitude of a fault rupture play an important role in the genesis of a tsunami. It is envisaged that a tsunamigenic earthquake, by and large, would be of < and greater magnitudes. .owever, local tsunami may occur by an earthquake of magnitudes between % and < provided other conditions are fulfilled. The nature of a tsunamigenic fault movement is essentially thrust. The focal depth has to be within 3# 35 km. The observation made on the earthquakes of 1ecember 78, 7##6 and March 7<, 7##5 clearly demonstrates that one with mb 4.# "Mw <.7& and

28

Earthquake in Bangladesh
focal depth 3# km generated devastating tsunami while the other with mb <.% "Mw <.3& and focal depth 73 km failed to generate it. The fault plane solution of two earthquake events occurred in ,umatra, Indonesia on 1ecember 78, 7##6 and March 7<, 7##5 respectively, and one earthquake event occurred in Aava on Auly 3%, 7##8 clearly demonstrates that the earthquake generated tsunami is a typical thrust fault rupture, while the other two show vertical fault rupture but not a thrust. This anomaly fits well with the relation between the nature of fault movement and the generation of tsunami. Auly 3%, 7##8 Aava earthquake of moment magnitude %.% and focal depth only 8 km also failed to generate tsunami. 0ased on the geodynamic conditions for the generation of tsunami an earthquake needs to trigger in the ocean bed with sufficient water depth close to the plate collision margin essentially within the subduction tectonic environment. It needs a ma-or rupture and fault movement of an essential thrust with moment magnitude much greater than % having focal depth within 3# 35 km. !nly active plate subduction )ones are susceptible to such kind of rupture due to thrust fault movement. 0ased on the configuration of the continental shelf, water depth, and tectonic framework of the 0ay of 0engal, a possible e planation on the status of tsunami vulnerability is proposed. The 7## km long continental shelf with a gradient #.5 mPkm in the upper 3## km )one and a gradient 7 mPkm in the lower 3## km )one and then an abrupt shelf break with a gradient about 7# mPkm acts as a potential barrier to the motion of the stressed water column. The tectonic framework of the 0ay of 0engal suggests that no potential subduction tectonics is operating in the bay and the dominant fault movement is strike$slip as determined from focal mechanism solution of earthquake events occurred in the bay. .ence, characteristically the most 0ay of 0engal region does not fulfil the ma-or criteria for the generation of any potential tsunami. .owever, it will be scientifically un-ust and unfair if a pocket located in the bay which coordinate 3<o: <%oE and another long narrow strip along /ndaman$:icobar Islands chain is ignored from saying that there remains some wild chances for generating local tsunami under some unusual conditions. Tsunami travels very fast as ocean waves, about <## kmPh, or #.7 kmPsec for a water depth of 5### m, but it is still much slower than seismic waves. The velocity difference between the seismic wave propagation and tsunami wave makes it possible to issue a tsunami warning. Earthquake monitoring stations "seismic observatories& can immediately calculate various parameters such as location, magnitude, focal depth, and the nature of fault rupture, and subsequently may issue tsunami warning. The national networking of seismic observatory and its inter communication would serve both the purpose of mapping earthquake risk )ones as well as tsunami warning. :o special and separate tsunami warning system is needed. .r> (ftab (la% :han i" rofe""or$ .epart%ent of 4eology$ 8ni#er"ity of .haka>

8nabated earthquake fear

/bdul @haleque Earthquakes happen when forces deep within our planet cause movement of the earth's outer layer called the crust. The rock plates that make up the earth's crust number about 7#. Most earthquakes occur along the boundaries of ma-or plates. /s the mantle moves plates slowly around the globe, the plates may crape against each other. ,ometimes pressure along the edges becomes so great that something has to give way. Then the land trembles with an earthquake. =eologists believe that the .imalayas were formed when the plate carrying India bumped into the one carrying the rest of /sia. The mantle may also pull plates apart. That is what is causing :orth /merica to drift ever further away from Europe. Most earthquakes happen along boundaries between coastal plates which are thick slabs of rocks. /t the boundaries, the plates sometimes grind against each other, setting up strains that can result in earthquakes. ,ince most of the plate boundaries are on the ocean floor, most earthquakes actually occur under the ocean. More than 5# per cent of all earthquakes occur at the edge of the +acific plates. /ll segments of our people may find interest in study on earthquake which occurred in quick succession recently in pretty fearful *ichter scale, portending grave danger to our high$rise buildings constructed without caring for preventive scales of construction. Ie need to vitalise administrative functionaries and seismic scientists to come with remedial suggestions to avoid the

29

Earthquake in Bangladesh
disastrous effects of earthquake with possible help from B:! and any other international agency. 0asic to survival in the event of an earthquake is adequate warning. Ie should endeavour to learn to mitigate sufferings and destructions, for which timely and correct warning, its dissemination and action thereon are of particular importance. It is a ma-or national concern to keep close contact with international agencies as an earthquake$prone country. Ie should not be surprised to learn that in B,/ seismic scientists study behaviour patterns of animals and cockroaches, using sensitive equipment designed to record movement of plates. It turns out that horses and cockroaches are usually active -ust before earthquakes. / professor of 2alifornia Bniversity reported that domestic and farm animals give signal of an impending earthquake. .is contention was verified by an animal behaviourist. +eople reported that their dogs and cats remain very close to their sides posing nervous. It was also verified that a horse was found kicking a wall of the stall about four hours before an earthquake. +eculiar pre$quake animal behaviour has often been reported by the 2hinese who are not still clear about relationship to draw any conclusion as to whether or not such a behaviour is a precursor of a ma-or earthquake. Throughout 2hina, people watch insects and animals, and report their unusual behaviour to seismic scientists. In 34%5, 2hina scientists observing animal behaviour and other signs predicted that an earthquake would hit soon. !fficials evacuated 3##### people from the city of .aicheng. / few hours later, a large quake levelled the city. ,uch accurate predictions are still rare. / few years later, a ma-or earthquake struck central 2hina without warning, killing %##### people in the city of Tangshan. ;requency of mild earthquake in 2hittagong, 2hittagong .ill Tracts in recent years alarmed the people, because the quakes measured more than 5 *ichter scale and did harm by flattening houses. /ccording to local people, at least 5# after$shocks had shaken the areas in these districts, forcing a lot of people to shift to safety. The epicentre of a recent quake was located at @alabunia on the Indo$0angladesh border. ;our$storey buildings in 2hittagong port developed multiple cracks after the tremor with 5.'3 on the *ichter scale hit the region on /ugust 37, 7##', the highest ever *ichter scale in the world being perhaps <.<. 0esides, the roof of the +ower 1evelopment 0oard sub$station in 2hittagong city collapsed. The frequent -olts and the petty damages have already raised the concern of the government and the seismic e perts and frightened people across 0angladesh. E perts on earthquake generally feel that 0angladesh may have a big earthquake in the 2hittagong area whose impact may be felt in 1haka also in the form of collapse of a lot multi$ storeyed buildings or in some other forms. *ecord shows that Madhupur gar and haor of ,ylhet were the creation of earthquake in 3%87. Tista river changed its course as a result of an earthquake of 3%<%. 6#### sq miles of @hasia hill areas were destroyed by the earthquake of 3<43 and the course of 0rahmaputra river was also changed. /n earthquake is -udged by the dimensions of the slipped area of the fault and the intensity and duration of ground$shaking which combinedly damage buildings and structures. ,hocks of energy release cause greater loss when the earthquake occurs in the city instead of a sparsely populated region. Ihen freeways are crowded, when many people are on the streets casualties may rise from falling debris and automobile accidents. /n earthquake, however, reveals certain weaknesses in engineering and construction practices, calling for corrective measures by appropriate improvements in safety regulations, in building codes and in preparation for an emergency. !ld buildings generally constitute the most serious threats of public safety because of the probability of their collapse during strong earthquakes. ,uch buildings should naturally be brought up to modern standards of seismic resistance or they should be demolished. To carry out such a programme, priorities as to relative use, location and nature of construction should be established. In some countries appropriate ta relief or other incentives to help ease the economic burden have been suitably organised. !ld earthen dams, highway structures and building codes have undergone revision to conform to the current state of knowledge of earthquake engineering. ,tructures and facilities vital in emergencies such as hospitals, emergency power installations, emergency operating centres, public safety facilities and essential elements of key communications systems have also been designed and constructed or remodeled to withstand strong earthquake shaking. ,imilarly, need has been felt to review and revise standards of designing and constructing utility systems so that future damage may be within acceptable limits. 0angladesh may undertake similar measures. Most undeveloped countries like 0angladesh do not have safe educational institutions for students, designed to resist earthquakes and other natural disasters. Det, these are in most cases the structures where shelters and post$disaster operations are organised. The ha)ard to student life is hardly given importance in 0angladesh. Educational institutions lacking safety should be prohibited

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Earthquake in Bangladesh
until these are brought up to modern standards of safety. If these cannot be made safe, these should be vacated and classes should be held in tents. It has been the general e perience that most typical, modern one$storey wood$frame houses perform better during earthquake ground shaking. 0angladesh has undertaken comprehensive programmes of rapid economic development. It seems necessary that 0angladesh considers carefully its land$use planning without proceeding hastily with land$use programmes in vulnerable areas. +recise traces of faults by geologists and its accurate mapping of breaks are essential prerequisites for land$use planning. Thorough geological investigation can e pose the ha)ards to critical structures like a new dam, a fertili)er factory, academic buildings, hospitals etc. /ll structures designed for public assembly need to be treated as sub-ects of special geological studies. E perts in geology, soil mechanics and engineering may in due course be able to define precisely geological ha)ards. Meanwhile, vigorous enforcement of improved building code may be taken as the most effective measure to reduce the earthquake ha)ards. In the Bnited ,tates, deficiencies in old masonry structures have been largely corrected through the passage and enforcement of L+arapet ?awsV which require ha)ardous parapets and cornices to be strengthened or removed in order to reduce ha)ards to occupants and pedestrians from debris. The usual weakness in 0angladesh buildings can be located in poor quality of brick, brick -oints being improperly filled with mortar, absence of mechanical ties between parallel layers of brick, absence of reinforcing steel in the walls, inadequate structural ties connecting floors, roofs and walls to each other. ,o, we need to bring sub$standard buildings and structures to the current international levels of safety. ,uch a programme will, of course, involve economic and human disruption to occupants in densely populated areas. In 0angladesh, warnings have been on against high$rise construction spree in view of the frequent mild tremors. 0ut none seems to have taken note of such warnings. /lthough the intensity range is still minor, the fear of devastating earthquake has not abated. The damage inflicted by such earthquake may be catastrophic. In advanced countries various insurance programme are at work to protect earthquake victims. The under$writers reinsure some fractions of their total e posure. (bdul :haleque i" a 1etd> '4 oli!e and 3e!retary>

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