Applied Energy 87 (2010) 18801892

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Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic activity patterns and electricity demand

Joakim Widn *, Ewa Wckelgrd
Department of Engineering Sciences, The ngstrm Laboratory, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 534, SE-751 21 Uppsala, Sweden

a r t i c l e

i n f o

a b s t r a c t
Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale uctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Article history: Received 20 May 2009 Received in revised form 2 September 2009 Accepted 4 November 2009 Available online 28 November 2009 Keywords: Domestic electricity demand Stochastic Markov chain Bottom-up Load model

1. Introduction Energy efciency measures and application of emergent renewable energy technologies have made the energy end-user increasingly important and inuential on system operation. One example is distributed electricity generation in low-voltage grids, where the impact of widespread on-site generation on network voltages is inuenced by the matching with domestic electricity demand [1,2]. Another example is performance of solar heating systems, which are inuenced by domestic hot water load proles [3,4]. Occupant presence and behaviour are likely to become more inuential on the heat balance in buildings as low-energy architecture is introduced, since this is more sensitive to body heat and excess heat from appliances [5]. Application of demand side management schemes and load shifting strategies that actively seek to transform the energy demand of the end-user calls for improved knowledge and modelling of what end-users actually do. For analyses and simulations, there is a need of improved, detailed models of occupant behaviour and energy use in buildings. Modelling of domestic electricity demand for studies of on-site distributed generation in a large number of individual households, which is the subject of this paper, is a complex task. In a realistic
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +46 18 471 37 82; fax: +46 18 50 01 31. E-mail address: joakim.widen@angstrom.uu.se (J. Widn). 0306-2619/$ - see front matter 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.11.006

reproduction the stochastic behaviour of the demand must be captured; more specically in terms of variations between households, spread of demand levels for different end-uses over time, variations over seasons and days, differences between weekdays and weekend days and load coincidence. To break down the problem, electricity use in a single household depends on three factors: (a) the set of appliances in the household, (b) the individual electricity demand of these appliances, and (c) the use of the appliances. With perfect knowledge of these factors, the electricity use in a household can be determined. The most complex and unpredictable of these is without doubt the behavioural factor (c). Bottom-up models, of which the Capasso model [6] is the most commonly cited example, combine detailed data on the factors (a)(c) to determine the electricity demand of an arbitrary number of households. A similar bottom-up approach is used by Paatero and Lund [7]. In general, these models and other high-resolution demand models, such as the model by Stokes [8], tend to be complex and dependent on large amounts of input data and assumptions. The challenge with detailed demand modelling must therefore be to keep the model structure as simple as possible while ensuring sufciently realistic output data. In particular, there is a need for an efcient but realistic treatment of the behavioural factor, as this determines stochastic uctuations and end-use composition over time.

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In a previous paper we showed that time-use (TU) data sequential high-resolution data on daily activities of household members, usually collected through diariescan be used for highly realistic descriptions of the behavioural factor (c) [9]. TU data were subsequently used to describe occupancy patterns in a stochastic Markov chain based model of domestic lighting demand [10]. Similar efforts have also been made by Page et al. [11] and Richardson et al. [12,13]. Both Stokes and Richardson et al. suggest further use of occupancy proles in demand modelling to make modelled data depend on the availability of occupants [8,12]. Already, occupancy patterns form the basis of models for ventilation [14] and ofce lighting [15]. Another approach with an even more realistic basisif the TU data are detailed enough to allow itis to extend occupancy modelling to modelling of synthetic multiple-activity proles. In this paper the approach in Ref. [10] is extended to a high-resolution stochastic model of multiple electricity-dependent activities in households and the associated electricity demand, based on a simplistic description of factors (a) and (b) from appliancespecic measurements in households, and a realistic Markov-chain model of factor (c) based on TU data. The stochastic Markov-chain process, which discriminates between weekdays and weekend days and between detached houses and apartments, generates high-resolved synthetic activity sequences to which appliance loads are connected to create power demand data for a variety of end-uses. The aim has been to keep the required input data at a minimum and the model structure as simple as possible, while keeping the model output highly realistic. At present, the model is limited to household electricity (i.e. excluding heating and maintenance electricity), but the general model structure is easily extended and applicable, e.g. to heating and domestic hot water (DHW). Routines for generating DHW proles from empirical TU data have already

been developed [9] and can be applied to synthetic activity patterns without much modication. The generated activity patterns can also be used to simulate high-resolution occupancy and occupant behaviour in various types of building simulations. In Section 2 the model is described in detail. Section 3 describes the data used for parameter estimates, input and validation of the model. In Section 4 the model is validated in terms of aggregate demand, stochastic behaviour and load coincidence. In Section 5 the main ndings are discussed, as well as possible extensions and applications of the model. Conclusions are drawn in Section 6. 2. Model framework To generate power demand data for a household, the model proceeds in two main steps, as outlined in Fig. 1. Synthetic activity patterns are generated for each household member in the rst step and these patterns are then converted into power demand for the household in the second step. Input data to the model are daylight data, converted from solar irradiance, that are fed into the conversion model for generation of lighting demand. Parameters are Markov-chain transition probabilities that dictate activity changes for household members, possible to determine from TU data, and household appliance loads, determined from measurements or statistics. This procedure can be repeated for an arbitrary number of households to create a larger set of demand data. 2.1. Generation of synthetic activity patterns 2.1.1. Markov-chain model A model for generation of synthetic occupancy patterns in householdscomprising the three states absent, present and active and present and inactivehas been presented in Ref. [10].

(a) Model overview

(b) Example output for a 3-person household

9

Activity

A(k,1)

Activity

Markovchain transition probabilities

Generation of synthetic activity patterns for each household member. k = time step i = household member

1 00:00 9

12:00

24:00

A(k,2)

1 00:00 9

12:00

24:00

A(k,i)

Activity

A(k,3)

1 00:00

12:00

24:00

Appliance load parameters

Conversion to household power demand. k = time step j = end-use category

3

Minute time step (k)

L(k )

P(k,j)

Power (kW)

P(k,3): cooking P(k,6): TV P(k,7): computer P(k,2): Lighting P(k,1): Cold appliances

12:00

24:00

Minute time step (k)

Fig. 1. Outline of the model. (a) shows the two main steps involved in the generation of activity patterns A and power demand P, together with parameters and input daylight data Lk. (b) shows example activity proles for a 3-person household and resulting power demand divided on different end-uses. Activities and end-uses correspond to those listed in Tables 1 and 2.

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In the present paper, the occupancy model is extended to include a number of electricity-dependent activities in the active state. These are chosen such that they can be unambiguously determined from the TU data set that is used. The activities are numbered and shown in Table 1.

Table 1 Activities/states in the Markov-chain model. Activity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Description Away Sleeping Cooking Dishwashing Washing TV Computer Audio Other

In the Markov-chain model it is assumed that a person in the household performs one of these activities in every discrete time step k 1; . . . ; N k . When time proceeds from k to k 1 there is a transition probability pij k of going from state i to j. This includes the probability pii k of staying in state i. Diurnal uctuations in daily activities are reproduced by allowing transition probabilities to vary over the day. By denition, the Markov chain is then non-homogeneous as compared to homogeneous processes with xed transition probabilities [16]. Activity patterns are generated from the set of transition probabilities as outlined in Fig. 2. In each time step a random uniform number is generated and compared to the transition probabilities to determine which transition is taking place. Note that in the rst time step an initial state for the Markov process must be set. 2.1.2. Transition probability estimates Transition probabilities can be straightforwardly estimated from TU data. Suppose that a series of TU data for N persons, showing which of the nine activities is taking place in every time step, is given for time steps k 1; . . . ; N k . All N transitions between time steps k and k 1 are examined and the total number nij k of transitions between states i and j are determined. The total number of P changes from state i is then ni k 9 j1 nij k, and the transition probability estimate is:

(a) Random generation of state transition in time step k

U [0,1]

pij k
0 1

nij k ni k

p2,1 p2,2

p2,3 p2,4 p2,5 p2,6

p2,7

p2,8

p2,9

Transition probabilities

If some states lack transitions from them in any time step, ni k will be zero and the above equation cannot be evaluated. One solution is to calculate average transition probabilities over longer time intervals:

(b) State transition in time step k

9 8 7

Pb a nij s pij k Ps b sa ni s

Markov6 chain state 5

4 3 2 1

where k 2 a; b. Direct assignment of a conjectured value might be necessary if no transitions take place within reasonable averaging intervals. 2.2. Activity-to-power conversion The nine activities in the Markov-chain model correspond to different electricity end-uses. In the conversion model (step 2 in Fig. 1), generalised load patterns for these end-uses are connected to the activities. The approach is the same as in Ref. [9], but the load patterns are more sophisticated. The timing of appliance loads with respect to the performed activity differs; electricity demand can take place during the activity, directly after the activity or without relation to the activities. Sharing of appliances within households is taken into account. In addition, the shape of the duty-cycle patterns vary between appliances, as well as standby electricity levels. Details on the modelling of different end-uses fol-

k 2

k 1

k+1

Time step
Fig. 2. Generation of synthetic activity sequences in the Markov-chain model. (a) shows how a uniform random number is used to determine the state change taking place in (b) between time steps k and k 1.

Table 2 Summary of model routines in the activity-to-power conversion. End-use Cold appliances Lighting Cooking Dishwashing Washing TV Computer Stereo Additional j 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Model routine Cyclic demand Daylight-dependent Conversion scheme A Conversion scheme B Conversion scheme B Conversion scheme C Conversion scheme C Conversion scheme C Constant demand Parameters P ON , duration curves for Dt ON ; DtOFF P ABSENT ; P INACTIVE ; P MAX ; P MIN ; LLIM ; Q ; DP P ON P 1 ; . . . ; P N ; k1 ; . . . ; kN P 1 ; . . . ; P N ; k1 ; . . . ; kN P ON ; P STANDBY P ON ; P STANDBY P ON ; P STANDBY P ADD Activities 110 3 4 5 7 8 9 Sharing Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No

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low below. An overview of the model routines is provided in Table 2. 2.2.1. Cold appliances Cold appliances are characterised by a cyclic load resulting from thermostatic temperature control. Although the cycling frequency can be assumed to vary during the day, due to more or less frequent opening and closing of the appliance, this effect can be neglected (cf. [26]). The appliance operation can therefore be assumed unrelated to the activity patterns. The applied modelling scheme is depicted in Fig. 3. To dene the load cycle of a cold appliance the cycle power P ON and the time intervals DtON and Dt OFF have to be dened. To introduce realistic stochastic uctuations, values for Dt ON and Dt OFF can be randomly generated for each cold appliance cycle using inverse transform sampling from duration curves determined from measured data. 2.2.2. Lighting The lighting part of the model is treated in detail in a separate paper [10]. In short, the model converts occupancy patterns to lighting demand, with respect to a daylight level determined from irradiance data. Every household member is assumed to demand a power P ABSENT when in the state absent and a power PINACTIVE when in the state present and inactive. When in the state present and active the desired lighting level of a household member depends on the daylight level Lk, a limiting daylight level LLIM and maximum and minimum power levels PMAX and P MIN :

( PACTIVE k

Lk Lk P MAX 1 L PMIN L LIM LIM

L 6 LLIM L > LLIM

PMIN

The daylight level Lk can be determined from irradiance data, using well-established conversion models, such as Ref. [27], as outlined in Ref. [10]. To add realism to the generated power demand, the actual lighting level of an active person is successively adjusted by an incremental power DP towards the desired level PACTIVE with a constant probability Q in each time step. When a household member goes to the absent or present and inactive states, the actual lighting demand is adjusted to PABSENT or PINACTIVE directly. The occupancy states absent and present and inactive correspond to activities 1 and 2 in this model, while the occupancy state present and active corresponds to activities 310. Thus, the model can be applied on the synthetic activity data generated by the model without any adjustments. 2.2.3. Cooking Cooking as a basic activity can involve numerous appliances such as microwave ovens, ovens, stoves, kettles, etc. To model this in detail would require either very detailed activity data covering the individual sub-activities involved or assumptions on how often during the main cooking activity different appliances are used. This problem has been addressed previously in Ref. [9]. There it was found that a simple but sufciently accurate solution is to assume a constant power demand during the cooking activity, as depicted in Fig. 4a.

(a) Random generation of cycle intervals

Prob( tON > X) Prob( tOFF > X)

(a) Conversion scheme A

Power

1 U1

PON

Time

U2 U3

Activity

(b) Conversion scheme B

U4
Power

0 X1 X3 X2 X4

P1 P2
0

PN

(b) Generated cyclic load patterns

Power

Time
k1 k2 kN

Activity

PON

(c) Conversion scheme C

Power PON

0 X1 X2 X3 X4

Time

PSTANDBY 0

Time

Activity
Fig. 3. Schematic outline of the model routine for cyclic demand of cold appliances. In this example, cycle intervals are randomly generated in (a) from uniformly distributed numbers U 1 ; . . . ; U 4 through inverse transform sampling from the distribution of interval times DtON and DtOFF . The obtained load pattern is shown in (b). Fig. 4. The three main activity-to-power conversion schemes in the model. In (a) the power demand is constant during the activity, in (b) a variable duty-cycle demand starts directly after the activity and in (c) the power demand is constant during the activity, with a standby level during non-use.

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2.2.4. Dishwashing and washing Dishwashers and washing machines have in common that their power demand starts after the active use of the appliance has nished. The activities in the generated activity patterns are of the type load and turn on machine. It is therefore assumed that the duty cycle of the machine starts directly after the activity stops. If the activity should appear again before the duty cycle is nished the whole cycle restarts. The power demand typically uctuates during the duty cycle in characteristic patterns for the respective appliances. These duty-cycle load curves can be approximated by piecewise linear functions as described in Fig. 4b. 2.2.5. Entertainment appliances For what can collectively be called entertainment appliances, such as TVs, computers and home stereo systems, the power demand can be assumed very close to constant during use. During non-use the appliance could be either turned off completely or set in standby mode. In the applied modelling scheme, which is a more general form of the scheme in Fig. 4a, a constant standby power demand is assumed during non-use, as depicted in Fig. 4c. 2.2.6. Additional miscellaneous electricity The model cannot be expected to cover all household electricity demand with the specied end-use categories. In Ref. [9] it was found that load data converted from TU data captured all the important specied end-use categories in appliance-specic measurements. However, a signicant additional unspecied category was left. This category was larger for detached houses than for apartments, probably reecting both larger share of maintenance electricity and more additional appliances. For the aggregate daily load in Ref. [9], the additional demand is close to constant over the day. The approximation applied in the present model is therefore

to include additional electricity as a constant power P ADD per household member. P ADD can be determined from the difference between the total modelled demand of the specic categories and a desired total demand. 2.2.7. Shared use of appliances Collective use of appliances is complex and not possible to determine from time-use data without additional information. In the model it is assumed that some appliances are completely shared while others are always used individually. When an appliance is individually used, each household members activity pattern is converted to power demand. When an appliance is shared, the activity patterns are combined to one and then converted, as outlined in Fig. 5. This way, explicit assumptions on the number of household appliances are avoided. Information on sharing for different end-uses is given in Table 2. 3. Data for parameter estimates and validation Three data sets were used for estimation of parameters and validation of the model. Table 3 gives an overview of these. TU-SCB1996 is the TU data set used for transition probability estimates in the Markov-chain model. TU/EL-SEA-2007 contains appliancespecic measurements on which the main parameters in the activity-to-power conversion model are based. This data set was also used to validate the total model output for individual households. EL-SEA-2007 is used to validate the aggregate model output for a large number of households. In addition to these, solar irradiance data are used for conversion to daylight data in the lighting part of the conversion model. In the following, these data are described in more detail. 3.1. Time-use data for transition probability estimates The data set TU-SCB-1996 contains the TU data used for estimation of the transition probabilities in the Markov-chain model. The data originate from a pilot study of time use by Statistics Sweden (SCB) in 1996. All participating household members aged between 10 and 97 years wrote diaries reporting their daily activities on 1 weekday and 1 weekend day. Activity types are organised in a hierarchic activity code scheme where activities are dened on different levels of abstraction [17]. The result is a detailed TU material where activities can be determined down to a 1-min resolution. The data set has been thoroughly examined for consistency and has been the subject of a number of preceding studies [1820]. After exclusion of erratic and some problematic data the data set used encompasses 431 persons in 103 detached houses and 66 apartments. The distribution of household sizes is shown in Table 4.

Power
2 PON PON 0 Activities Person 1 Person 2 Combined

Without sharing With sharing

Time

Fig. 5. Shared use of appliances. When an appliance is shared the power demand is determined from the combined pattern. Without sharing each individual activity pattern is converted to power demand, resulting in a higher total demand.

Table 3 Data sets used for parameter estimates and validation. Data set TU-SCB-1996 Description Pilot survey of time use (TU) by Statistics Sweden (SCB) Combined survey of time use and electricity use by the Swedish Energy Agency (SEA) Preliminary electricity measurements of household electricity on individual appliance level by the SEA Survey period 1 weekday and 1 weekend day per household member between August and December 1996 Seven annual and seven monthly measurements of electricity in 14 households from 2005 to 2007. TU for four successive days (2 weekdays and 2 weekend days) in ve households in the autumn of 2006 Based on annual and monthly measurements between 2005 and 2007 Number of participants 431 Persons in 103 detached houses and 66 apartments Electricity measurements for 14 households. TU for ve households with 13 persons 217 households Data resolution Down to 1-min intervals

TU/EL-SEA-2007

Time-use data on 1-min intervals, electricity measurements with 10min means 1-h averages based on measurements with 10min means

EL-SEA-2007

J. Widn, E. Wckelgrd / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 18801892 Table 4 Distribution of household sizes in the TU-SCB-1996 data set. Household size 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total number of households Total number of persons Average number of persons per household Detached houses 7 39 26 23 6 1 1 103 298 2.89 Apartments 26 27 4 6 1 2 0 66 133 2.02

1885

Table 6 Chosen measurement periods in TU/EL-SEA-2007 data set, with household size and type of dwelling indicated. All periods are from the summer and autumn of 2006. Household names are the same as in Refs. [10,21]. Household A B C D E F G H I J K L M N Household size 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 Dwelling Apartment Apartment Detached house Apartment Detached house Apartment Detached house Detached house Detached house Apartment Apartment Apartment Detached house Detached house Chosen time period September 18October 15 October 30November 26 June 5July 2 June 5July 2 September 25October 22 June 5July 2 June 5July 2 October 16November 12 June 5July 2 September 4October 1 June 5July 2 June 5July 2 September 18October 15 October 16November 12

To make it possible to use the data for transition probability estimates, the activity categories were collected in categories related to different end-uses. The result is the list already shown in Table 1. These categories were chosen carefully to cover activities possible to determine from the TU data, while at the same time keeping the number of states as low as possible. The category scheme in Ref. [9] served as a basis. Drying laundry was excluded since an overestimation resulted from assuming standard appliances in Ref. [9]. Computer demand was underestimated in the same study, reecting lower use of computers in 1996. This has been corrected in the proposed model by including activities that can be expected to have been computerised since 1996, such as homework. The TV category includes use of related appliances such as DVD and VCR. Apartments and detached houses were separated, as weekdays and weekend days are by default, so that separate sets of transition probabilities could be estimated for the two types of days and dwellings. Hourly averages were used when calculating transition probabilities. This approach was used in Ref. [10] with good results. This means that simulations can be run with shorter time steps, but that the same transition probabilities are used during each hour. Some states lacked transitions despite the relatively long averaging times. This happens exclusively during night hours, so the transition probability to state 2 was set to one in these cases. For simulations with the Markov-chain model, initial states for the process must be set. Activities in the rst time step for all persons in the TU-SCB-1996 data set are shown in Table 5. The active states 39 are unoccupied, which is somewhat unrealistic and is due to unreported activities in the TU data during night-time.

preceding model papers [9,10]. The survey is part of a large-scale measurement project by the Swedish Energy Agency (SEA) aimed at improving energy-demand statistics of the built environment in Sweden [23]. Individual appliances in this data set were measured with a 10min resolution. This makes it possible to determine high-resolution load proles for individual appliance types to be used in the activity-to-power conversion model (see next section). Complete load data series in the households are used to test statistical properties of the modelled demand data. For the latter analysis, a period of 4 weeks was extracted from each household. Whole weeks were chosen, as close in time as possible. The resulting periods are shown together with household sizes and dwelling types in Table 6. Appliance-specic measurements were collected in categories corresponding to the end-uses in Table 2. 3.3. Data for validation of aggregate load proles The data set EL-SEA-2007, also from the SEAs measurement survey [23], contains preliminary aggregate demand for all households with nished measurements in late 2007. These data, in the form of hourly load proles, specic for detached houses and apartments and for weekdays and weekend days, are used to validate the model output for large numbers of households. 3.4. Solar irradiance data Synthetic irradiance data for Stockholm, Sweden, were generated with the climate data simulator and database Meteonorm 6.0 [24]. The data series cover 1 year with a 1-min resolution. Conversion to daylight data was done with models in Refs. [27,28] for a south-facing, vertically oriented triple-glazing window. These particular window assumptions were also used with good results in the previously published paper about the lighting part of the model [10]. In a study of houses with more well-dened daylighting conditions, the window orientation and glazing could be adjusted. 4. Validation 4.1. Method for validation The aim with the validation of the model is to (a) check that simulations for a large number of households with the same parameter set applied yield mean aggregate load curves that correspond to the aggregate load curves in EL-SEA-2007 and (b) check that simulations with this parameter set for fewer households cor-

3.2. Appliance measurements for activity-to-power conversion and validation The TU/EL-SEA-2007 data set contains data from a combined survey of time use and electricity demand in Swedish households. Electricity demand was measured between 2005 and 2007 in monthly or annual periods in 14 households. In ve of these households TU data were collected. The survey is extensively reported in [21], where the data were carefully examined for consistency and measurement errors. The data set has also been used in studies of on-site photovoltaic generation [22] and for validation in the

Table 5 Distribution of initial activities/states in the Markov-chain model, corresponding to the rst time step in the TU-SCB-1996 data set for weekdays. State 1 2 39 Fraction of persons in detached houses (%) 6 94 0 Fraction of persons in apartments (%) 5 95 0

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respond in stochastic terms to measurement data for the small set of households in TU/EL-SEA-2007. One small set of households and one large set of households were generated with the model to make these comparisons. 4.1.1. Simulation of the large household set Individual appliance data in the TU/EL-SEA-2007 data set were examined and representative appliance load proles for estimation of conversion-model parameters were determined. No strict method was applied; however, for most appliances the load proles were highly similar. Duration curves for a set of representative cold appliance cycle times were determined for modelling of cold appliances. For the lighting model, a set of parameters tted to the ELSEA-2007 lighting data determined in Ref. [10] was used. The lighting model parameters were set to vary between individual households and separate sets were dened for detached houses and apartments. For the other end-uses the same parameters were used for both household types. The additional power level PADD was calculated from the difference between estimates of total annual demand generated with the model and in EL-SEA-2007. The resulting parameter set is listed in Table 7. Lighting parameters are shown separately in Table 8. Aggregate mean load curves were determined from simulations of 200 detached houses and 200 apartments during one summer and one winter week (5 weekdays and 2 weekend days). Household sizes were randomly sampled from the distribution in TUSCB-1996 (see Table 4). Simulations were run with 1-min time

steps and mean hourly load curves were calculated for weekdays and weekend days. Initial states in the Markov-chain simulations were chosen as the states of the rst time step in the TU-SCB1996 set, shown in Table 5. An average of summer and winter load curves was calculated to estimate the annual mean load curve. From the modelled and measured load curves, total annual demand was estimated by weighting totals for weekdays and weekend days:

Etot 261

24 X h 1

Pwd h 104

24 X h 1

Pwed h

where Pwd and Pwed are load curves for weekday and weekend day, respectively. 4.1.2. Simulation of the small household set When a realistic aggregate behaviour of the model is assured, the challenge of the model is to realistically reproduce diversity and time-variability in the demand for fewer households. To determine if this is the case, 14 households were simulated with the same household sizes and dwelling types as in Table 6. Insolation data for the exact time periods reported in Table 6 were extracted from the annual data series to model daylight level, used as input to the lighting conversion for the households. The same sequences of weekdays and weekend days as in the measurement data were used when generating synthetic activity patterns in the model. The parameters in Table 7 were applied. Note that this means that parameter values are estimated from the same data set that the model is validated against. However, the stochastic features that are compared for the small household set do not in any way depend critically on the conversion parameters, but on the Markov-chain model, which is tuned to the completely separate TUSCB-1996 data set. The higher lighting parameter values in Table 8 were used for all households, as Ref. [10] showed that this gave a reasonable t to the lighting data of these households. The analysis has to be restricted to specied demand only, because of problems with separating additional household electricity from other additional electricity use (mainly heating) in the measured data. 4.1.3. Load curve measures Apart from standard statistical measures such as mean values, standard deviation, maxima and minima, the shape of a load curve Pk can be analysed with the load factor [25] which is the ratio of maximum to mean power:

Table 7 Parameter values in the activity-to-power conversion model (except lighting), corresponding to a standard appliance set. The parameters are special cases of the general formulations listed in Table 2. Parameter P FRIDGE;ON P FREEZER;ON P COOKING;ON P DISHWASHING;1 P DISHWASHING;2 P DISHWASHING;3 kDISHWASHING;1 kDISHWASHING;2 kDISHWASHING;3 P WASHING;1 P WASHING;2 kWASHING;1 kWASHING;2 P TV ;ON P TV ;STANDBY P COMPUTER;ON P COMPUTER;STANDBY P STEREO;ON P STEREO;STANDBY P ADD;DETACHED P ADD;APARTMENT Value 50 (W) 80 (W) 1500 (W) 1944 (W) 120 (W) 1920 (W) 17 (min) 57 (min) 73 (min) 1800 (W) 150 (W) 20 (min) 110 (min) 100 (W) 20 (W) 100 (W) 40 (W) 30 (W) 6 (W) 53 (W/person) 11 (W/person)

PN 1 Pk LF N k1 max Pk
k

Table 8 Parameter values in the lighting part of the activity-to-power conversion model, determined in Ref. [10] to increase t to measured average load curves. The proportion of households with a specic parameter value is shown in parentheses. Parameter LLIM (lux) P ABSENT (W) P INACTIVE (W) P MIN (W) P MAX (W) Q DP (W) Detached houses 1000 0 (60%), 40 (40%) 0 (60%), 40 (40%) 40 (80%), 80 (20%) 160 (60%), 200 (40%) 0.1 40 Apartments 1000 0 (70%), 40 (30%) 0 (70%), 40 (30%) 40 80 (40%), 120 (60%) 0.1 40

The load factor varies between zero and one. A low value is an indicator of high power variations, as the maximum power is high compared to the mean value. Conversely, a high value indicates a smooth demand and low variations. When individual household loads are added they coincide more or less depending on end-use composition and ultimately on activity patterns. This effect must be reproduced by the stochastic model. Coincident behaviour can be described by the coincidence factor [25]:

, CF max Pk
k

X
i

max Pi k
k

where the aggregate demand P k is the sum of the partial loads Pi k. The coincidence factor thus relates the maximum of the aggregate load to the sum of the maximum values of the partial loads. If the partial-load maxima all appear at the same time, the coincidence factor equals one. If the maxima are spread out, the coincidence factor assumes a lower value.

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4.2. Validation results 4.2.1. Aggregate demand Modelled average load curves for the large set of detached houses and apartments are shown, together with the corresponding ones in the EL-SEA-2007 data set, in Fig. 6. Since the TU data set is the same as in Ref. [9] and since the activity-to-power conversion model also is based on this paper, the results are similar to those presented there. There is an overall correspondence between measured and modelled data. The diurnal distribution of end-use loads is, if not exactly reproduced, very close. In particular, differences between apartments and detached houses are captured, as well as differences between weekdays and weekend days. The latter differences include a higher weekend demand and a shifting of the demand towards mid-day on weekends. The main deviance between measured and modelled data is the more variable modelled demand. This was also found in Ref. [9] and occurs because of fewer data points in the TU data on which the transition probabilities are based than in the measured data. A larger TU data set would make the distribution of transition probabilities and the aggregate curve smoother.

Annual total electricity demand estimated with Eq. (4) for the simulated data and EL-SEA-2007 are shown in Fig. 7. The overall pattern is similar for measured and modelled data, with deviations for some end-uses. The total specied demand is somewhat underestimated in detached houses and overestimated in apartments. The calculated additional categories compensate for these differences. To conclude, the applied parameter set gives a reasonable reproduction of aggregate demand, both in terms of daily distribution and total demand. 4.2.2. Individual households Fig. 8 shows an example of household electricity demand of one modelled household and one measured household from TU/ELSEA-2007 over 2 weeks of the whole measured and modelled 4week period. The random patterns are similar, with recurring high peaks and smaller demand variations and with variations between fast and slow changes in power. Naturally, since these are examples of individual households, the exact peak and off-peak values differ between the curves. Fig. 9 shows the total period demand for different household sizes in modelled and measured data. The variability within the

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Fig. 6. Annual averages of daily load curves obtained with the model and in the EL-SEA-2007 data set. Two hundred detached houses and apartments were simulated on a 1min basis during one summer and one winter week to estimate the annual load curve. The parameter sets in Tables 7 and 8 were applied.

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Fig. 7. Total annual electricity demand for different end-uses obtained with the model and in EL-SEA-2007. Simulations as in Fig. 6. Annual demand was calculated with Eq. (4).

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Fig. 8. Examples of demand for one modelled household and one measured household from the TU/EL-SEA-2007 data set during 2 weeks of the whole studied 4-week period. Simulations were run with 1-min time steps and resulting data averaged over 10-min intervals. Measurement data resolution is 10 min.

set of households is captured fairly well, although the same parameter set is used for all households except the parameters for lighting. The variations in the measured data are larger, but the measured data follow roughly the more linear trend in the modelled data. Differences between modelled households arise mainly from household size, but also from different activity patterns in detached houses and apartments, different lighting parameter sets and different insolation periods corresponding to measured periods. Apparently, an important part of the variability in the measurement data is captured. The modelled data must also be realistic in terms of load-pattern shape. Descriptive statistics of the modelled and measured data, divided on the individual end-uses, are shown in Table 9. All measures were calculated for each individual household. In the table, evaluations of these measures are shown as mean values over all households. The statistics are similar for most end-uses. The most apparent deviance is for cold appliances. An inspection of the measured data for cold appliances showed that occasional high power peaks, not part of the ordinary cyclic load, raised the standard deviation and even more so the load factor. Most impor-

tantly, properties of the modelled total household electricity load data are close to those of the measured ones in statistical terms. One important feature of the load data for individual households is the spread of demand on high and low power levels. Fig. 10 shows the mean power duration curve for the 14 households, together with the standard deviation between the households different duration curves, showing variability between households in terms of distribution on high and low power demand. The model reproduces the mean duration curve, which suggests that on average the spread on high and low power levels is realistic. Variability between households regarding this distribution is also reproduced for high power demand levels. For lower levels, the standard deviation decreases compared to TU/EL-SEA2007. This is an effect of using the same appliance set for all households. In reality, standby powers and levels of inactive power demand differ between households. This is more clearly seen in Fig. 11 where the standard deviation in the whole measured and modelled data sets is shown, calculated over all time steps and all households. The deviation follows roughly the aggregate demand curve (cf. Fig. 6) with increasing

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variability over the mid-day and evening hours. The modelled and measured variability are highly similar, except for the rst hours after midnight when there is minimum household activity and only standby use. Since the lack of variability occurs during night-time and at low demand levels, it can be considered noncritical.

4.2.3. Load coincidence Random coincidence of loads has a smoothing effect on the aggregate demand curve. Fig. 12 shows aggregate modelled and measured demand over 2 weeks of the whole 4-week period for all 14 households. The smoothing effect is clearly seen when comparing the curves to Fig. 8. In Fig. 12 the uctuations and randomness as well as the regularities caused by random coincidence are similar for modelled and measured data. A lack of reported nighttime activities in the TU data that the activity-generating model is based on causes the somewhat sudden decrease in demand at midnight. Since peak loads are less pronounced in comparison to the mean load for the aggregate demand, the load factor should increase successively when more and more loads are aggregated. This effect is shown for measured and modelled data in Fig. 13. To obtain the curves in the gure, loads were aggregated successively in random order. This procedure was repeated for a large number of load permutations and the obtained curves were averaged to yield the mean curves shown in the gure. Once again, as was the case with the load factors for single households, there are deviances in absolute values. This is most pronounced, as before, for cold appliances. However, the change in load factor with increasing demand aggregation is about the same for measured and modelled data for all end-uses. A further test of the reproduction of load coincidence is to evaluate the coincidence factor for aggregate modelled and measured demand. Relevant demand periods were chosen based on the aggregate demand uctuations in Fig. 6. The demand is roughly divided into three periods in which the power demand assumes

Table 9 Average descriptive statistics for the end-use-specic power demand of 14 modelled households and corresponding measurements in TU/EL-SEA-2007. All measures were evaluated over the whole simulated and measured 4-week period. End-use Mean (W) Mod Cold appliances Lighting Cooking Dishwashing Washing/drying TV Computer Stereo Total 82 94 59 9 12 36 45 7 343 Meas 79 72 34 22 18 33 71 8 337 Std (W) Mod 40 119 261 97 98 35 21 4 360 Meas 58 96 157 137 113 32 46 3 349 Maximum (W) Mod 130 480 1500 1666 1543 120 219 41 3423 Meas 448 545 2647 1333 1438 146 219 29 3814 Minimum (W) Mod 0 0 0 0 0 20 40 6 66 Meas 0 5 1 0 0 10 29 4 55 Load factor Mod 0.632 0.205 0.040 0.004 0.006 0.301 0.219 0.167 0.102 Meas 0.257 0.114 0.012 0.011 0.007 0.218 0.202 0.292 0.088

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Fig. 10. Duration curves for the 4-week power demand in 14 modelled households and corresponding measured households in TU/EL-SEA-2007. The mean duration curve (MEAN) over all households is shown together with the standard deviation (STD) between the households.

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Fig. 11. Daily variation in standard deviation (STD) in the power demand of 14 modelled households and the corresponding measured households in TU/EL-SEA2007. STD calculated over all households and all time intervals of the 4-week simulation and measurement periods.

roughly the same values: 00:0006:00, 06:0017:00 and 17:00 24:00. The coincidence factor was evaluated in each time frame on each of the 28 days. Averages for each time frame were calculated and are shown in Table 10. The modelled and measured values are very similar and the difference between night-time and daytime coincidence is captured. To conclude, the overall statistical reproduction of coincident behaviour is accurate both in terms of load factor change and coincidence factor. 5. Concluding discussion 5.1. Possible renements and extensions Although the validation of the model shows that it works satisfactorily in all the investigated aspects, a number of different renements, extensions and modications can be imagined. A possible model renement is more detailed modelling of certain enduses, for example cooking. A larger and possibly more detailed TU data set could make it possible to dene more detailed activity categories. It is also possible to use more extensive data on appliance

ownership to increase diversity among households. Tuning the Markov chains with TU data covering longer time periods could avoid the somewhat problematic under-reporting of night-time activities that results from TU diaries being written from the morning onwards although they are supposed to cover all 24 h. With larger TU data sets it would also be possible to divide household categories on more Markov-chain matrices to capture specic activity patterns or coordinated habits (cf. Ref. [12]). However, as shown for the lighting model [10], this renement is not expected to have any substantial impact on the modelled data. To overcome discrepancies between modelled and measured data, parameters such as the activity-to-power conversion schemes could be netuned. For example, to make peak powers of the aggregate load curves match known peak powers, the activity-to-power conversion schemes could be varied to increase the t. It is also possible to adjust the model to more specic case studies. If the model is applied to more well-dened sets of buildings, the activity-to-power proles could be adjusted to match those of a known sets of appliances and the daylight availability in the lighting part of the model could be modied to match certain window setups, obstructions and shading and insolation conditions. The transition probabilities in the Markov-chain model could also be adjusted, either by tuning them to another set of TU data, if available, or by assuming values that are reasonable for a certain end-user category. As mentioned in the introduction, the model could also be extended to cover other end-use loads, such as hot water, space heating and cooling demand, or thermal loads such as appliance excess heat and body heat. The activity model could easily be extended to a room-specic occupancy model for homes by making assumptions on where certain activities are performed within a building. In building simulations where multiple loads are taken into account, the advantage of the model is that all end-uses are correlated, as they are based on the same underlying activity patterns. Including insolation data, as is done in the lighting part of the model, also preserves important correlations between energy use and insolation, which is important when modelling utilisation of solar applications, such as photovoltaics, solar heating and passive houses. It is important to note that although possible adjustments and improvements of the model can be identied, such extensions must always be valued against increased complexity and relative improvement of model accuracy. Since computations are potentially time-consuming, especially if large numbers of households and time steps are involved, there should be a sound balance be-

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Fig. 12. Aggregate demand for all 14 modelled households and the corresponding measured households in TU/EL-SEA-2007 during 2 weeks of the 4-week simulation and measurement periods. Simulations were run with 1-min time steps and resulting data averaged over 10-min intervals. Measurement data resolution is 10 min.

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Fig. 13. Change in load factor (LF) with increasing aggregation of demand. Comparison between 14 modelled households and the corresponding measured households in TU/ EL-SEA-2007. Averages of curves obtained through successive aggregation of different permutations of household loads.

Table 10 Coincidence factors for the aggregate demand of the 14 modelled households and corresponding measurements in TU/EL-SEA-2007. Each time-frame value is an average over the 28 days in the measurement and simulation period. Time frame 00:0006:00 06:0017:00 17:0024:00 Model 0.82 0.43 0.49 TU/EL-SEA-2007 0.73 0.48 0.50

tween complexity and output quality. This model has shown that highly realistic demand patterns can be generated with relatively few assumptions and a simplied and transparent model structure. 5.2. Examples of applications As mentioned in the introduction, the model is applicable in a number of areas where a realistic user behaviour has to be taken into account. Some of these are: 5.2.1. Small-scale distributed power generation This is the research problem for which the model was specically developed, but it is also an application that should be of interest for utility or grid companies in planning of distributed generation. When very small but widespread photovoltaic systems are integrated in low-voltage distribution grids, overproduction of power that is unmatched to the local demand will lead to a voltage rise that may exceed prescribed limits. On the other hand, local power generation that matches the demand will increase on-site utilisation, counteract voltage drops along distribution feeders and decrease distribution losses. It is clear that a domestic electricity demand model like the one proposed in this paper, that includes all features of real demand and maintains the negative correlation between lighting demand and insolation, would contribute greatly to make power-ow simulations of distribution grids in residential areas more realistic. Simulations for a number of Swedish low-voltage grids will be presented in a separate coming paper. 5.2.2. Building simulations If extended to a number of additional end-use loads, the model would be a viable tool for building simulations. For indoor climate

simulations of low-energy or passive houses that were mentioned in the introduction, thermal loads such as body heat from the household members and excess heat from electrical appliances are easily included in the model by using appropriate activity-topower conversion schemes. Here, the ability of the model to preserve correlations between different end-uses, modelled from the same activities, is important. The inuence of detailed, typical household activity patterns on the indoor climate of a Swedish passive house has been measured in an experimental setup by Karresand et al. [29], based on the same TU data that are used in this paper. A clear impact of both occupancy and use of electric appliances on daily indoor temperature uctuations was observed. Extended to include thermal loads, our proposed model would permit similar building simulation studies to be performed, that could cover a wide range of building types, geographical settings and time periods with a high degree of detail. Further research will include this extension and application of the model. 5.2.3. Demand side management Although no such application of the model has yet been performed, it could provide a basis for studies of demand side management and energy efciency. As the model structure separates activities from electrical appliances, the load proles of different appliances can be varied to see the effect on total electricity use and daily uctuations of the load prole. Conversely, the behavioural part can be altered by varying the Markov-chain transition probabilities. In a similar way, the model could also be applied to simulations of demand-response schemes. Active demand response, where household members change their electricity use in response, e.g. to price signals, could be modelled by dynamically decreasing or increasing the transition probabilities for certain activities. Automatic demand response, which involves an automatic modication of certain appliance load proles, could be introduced by dynamically altering the activity-to-power conversion schemes, while the activity pattern generation remains unchanged. 6. Conclusions The validation of the proposed model structure has shown that the Markov-chain model produces activity patterns that realisti-

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J. Widn, E. Wckelgrd / Applied Energy 87 (2010) 18801892 [9] Widn J, Lundh M, Vassileva I, Dahlquist E, Ellegrd K, Wckelgrd E. Constructing load proles for household electricity and hot water from timeuse datamodelling approach and validation. Energy Build 2009;41:75368. [10] Widn J, Nilsson A, Wckelgrd E. A combined Markov-chain and bottom-up approach to modelling of domestic lighting demand. Energy Build 2009;41:100112. [11] Page J, Robinson D, Morel N, Scartezzini J-L. A generalised stochastic model for the simulation of occupant presence. Energy Build 2008;40:8398. [12] Richardson I, Thomson M, Ineld D. A high-resolution domestic building occupancy model for energy demand simulations. Energy Build 2008;40:15606. [13] Richardson I, Thomson M, Ineld D, Delahunty A. Domestic lighting: a highresolution energy demand model. Energy Build 2009;41:7819. [14] Yun GY, Tuohy P, Steemers K. Thermal performance of a naturally ventilated building using a combined algorithm of probabilistic occupant behaviour and deterministic heat and mass balance models. Energy Build 2009;41:48999. [15] Reinhardt CF. Lightswitch-2002: a model for manual and automated control of electric lighting and blinds. Sol Energy 2004;77:1528. [16] Cinlar E. Introduction to stochastic processes. Prentice-Hall International, Inc.; 1975. [17] Ellegrd K. A time-geographic approach to the study of everyday life of individualsa challenge of complexity. GeoJournal 1999;48:16775. [18] Ellegrd K, Cooper M. Complexity in daily lifea 3D-visualization showing activity patterns in their contexts. Electron Int J Time Use Res 2004;1:3759. [19] Ellegrd K, Vrotsou K. Capturing patterns of everyday lifepresentation of the visualization method VISUAL-TimePAcTS. In: IATURXXVIII annual conference, Copenhagen, Denmark; 1618 August, 2006. [20] Vrotsou K, Ellegrd K, Cooper M. Exploring time diaries using semi-automated activity pattern extraction. IATURXXIX annual conference, Washington (DC, USA); 1719 October, 2007. [21] Karlsson K, Widn J. Hushllens elanvndningsmnster identierade i vardagens aktiviteter (Households electricity use patterns identied in everyday activities). Working Paper 330. Department of technology and social change, Linkping University; 2008 [in Swedish]. [22] Widn J, Karlsson K. The inuence of Swedish households everyday activities and electricity-use patterns on the utilization of small-scale photovoltaic systems. In: Proceedings of the ECEEE summer study 2009, La Colle-sur-Loup, France; 16 June, 2009. [23] Swedish Energy Agency. Improved energy statistics in buildings. <http:// www.energimyndigheten.se/en/Facts-and-gures1/Improved-energystatistics-in-buildings>. [24] METEOTEST; 2008. Meteonorm 6.0. <http://www.meteonorm.com/pages/en/ meteonorm.php>. [25] Jenkins N, Allan R, Crossley P, Kirschen D, Strobac G. Embedded generation. IET Power Energy Ser, vol. 31; 2000. [26] Firth S, Lomas K, Wright A, Wall R. Identifying trends in the use of domestic appliances from household electricity consumption measurements. Energy Build 2008;40:92636. [27] Perez R, Ineichen P, Seals R, Michalsky J, Stewart R. Modeling daylight availability and irradiance components from direct and global irradiance. Sol Energy 1990;44:27189. [28] Reindl DT, Beckman WA, Dufe JA. Evaluation of hourly tilted surface radiation models. Sol Energy 1990;45:917. [29] Karresand H, Molin A, Persson J, berg M. How passive are your activities? An interdisciplinary comparative energy analysis of passive and conventional houses in Linkping, ranging from household activities and actors reasoning to indoor environment and local energy system. Working Paper 42. The Energy Systems Programme, Linkping University, Sweden; 2009.

cally reproduce a spread of different end-use loads over time. With a relatively simple conversion model from activities to power demand, realistic demand patterns can be generated from these activity sequences. All important features observed in measured demand are reproduced, including end-use composition, diurnal and annual variations in aggregate curves for total demand and individual end-uses, demand variation over different time scales in individual households, diversity among households and demand coincidence resulting in successive smoothing of aggregate demand with increasing numbers of households. A number of applications of the model are identied, some of which will be investigated further in future research and coming papers. Acknowledgements The work has been carried out under the auspices of The Energy Systems Programme, which is primarily nanced by the Swedish Energy Agency. Part of the work with the development of the activity-to-lighting conversion model was carried out in a project nanced by Gteborg Energi. Kajsa Ellegrd and Kristina Karlsson, Department of Technology and Social Change, Linkping University, are gratefully acknowledged for providing time-use data for estimation of model parameters and validation. The authors are also grateful to Peter Bennich at the Swedish Energy Agency for providing measurement data on household electricity used for comparison with the model output. References
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