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Stochastic Analyses of Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts on Distribution Network

Rong-Ceng Leou, Member, IEEE, Chun-Lien Su, Member, IEEE, and Chan-Nan Lu, Fellow, IEEE
AbstractA stochastic modeling and simulation technique for analyzing impacts of electric vehicles charging demands on distribution network is proposed in this paper. Different from the previous deterministic approaches, the feeder daily load models, electric vehicle start charging time, and battery state of charge used in the impact study are derived from actual measurements and survey data. Distribution operation security risk information, such as over-current and under-voltage, is obtained from three-phase distribution load ow studies that use stochastic parameters drawn from Roulette wheel selection. Voltage and congestion impact indicators are dened and a comparison of the deterministic and stochastic analytical approaches in providing information required in distribution network reinforcement planning is presented. Numerical results illustrate the capability of the proposed stochastic models in reecting system losses and security impacts due to electric vehicle integrations. The effectiveness of a controlled charging algorithm aimed at relieving the system operation problem is also presented. Index TermsControlled charge, distribution feeder operation and planning, electric vehicle impact study, load model, stochastic simulations.

I. INTRODUCTION UE to the advancement of electric vehicle (EV) technology, it has been shown that an EV charge demand could reach to or higher than that of a regular household. Adoption of EV could create high demand level that overloads distribution system equipment and cause low voltage to customers. The existing distribution network would face great challenge when EV penetration is high. In order to mitigate the problem and fulll the utilitys goals for power distribution, impact analysis and optimal scheduling of operation changes and future reinforcement are required. EV industry trends, charge and discharge scenarios, and impacts on distribution system are reviewed in [1]. Evaluation methods and factors to be considered in analyzing the impacts of EV charge on distribution network can be found in [2][6].

Manuscript received January 03, 2013; revised June 02, 2013 and September 13, 2013; accepted November 14, 2013. The is work was supported by National Science Council of Taiwan and Taiwan Power Company under contract NSC 100-3113-p-110-004. Paper no. TPWRS-01355-2012. R.-C. Leou is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Cheng Shiu University, Niao-Song, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (e-mail: leou@csu.edu.tw). C.-L. Su is with the Department of Marine Engineering, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (e-mail: cls@webmail.nkmu.edu.tw). C.-N. Lu is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (e-mail: cnl@ee.nsysu.edu.tw). Color versions of one or more of the gures in this paper are available online at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org. Digital Object Identier 10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2291556

Typical driving patterns, battery characteristics, consumer preferences are important factors to be considered. Severl impact factors are quantied in [2]. An EV charge impact assessment procedure includes data collections, statistical clustering, feeder modeling, determination of charging scenarios, feeder analysis and mitigation is presented in [3]. EV charge impact is closely related to the load patterns of existing feeder nodes, charging locations, start charging time, battery state of charge (SOC) during charging, charging mode and capacity of battery. EV charging station measurements have indicated that these parameters are highly uncertain [7], thus, the complexity of distribution system operations and planning will increase as EV penetration becomes high. Stochastic models are adopted to take into account the uncertainties related to EV charging loads such as charging classes, locations and charging load proles [8][11]. These studies allow for an estimation of different levels of EV penetration on the load of the power grid as well as the potentials of mobile energy storage systems for grid services. Incremental expenditure of network reinforcement required for serving EV charging loads is described in [12]. Study results indicate that the required network reinforcement can reach values up to 19% of total actual network costs in a situation without EV. If smart charging is adopted, up to 60%70% of the required incremental investment could be avoided. Power quality and transformer operations concerns due to EV charging are discussed in [13] and [14]. Charge controls are recommended to shift the charging time to off-peak periods in order to avoid excessive impact to the existing system. Comparisons of the impacts of uncontrolled and controlled charging have shown that by controlling the charging time and duration, the system loss and replacement of overloaded network components can be reduced or delayed [15]. Centralized EV charging control could mitigate the problem. Deterministic models based on average and peak load (worst case) scenarios are developed in previous impact studies. Information required for system operation and planning, such as average system loss and feeder loading, risk of under voltage and network congestions, are often unavailable. In order to take various uncertainties into account and make informed decisions, this paper proposes a stochastic modeling and simulation technique that is based on EV charge measurements and load survey data. The organization of the paper is as follows. Models of EV charge and the proposed impact analysis procedure are described in Section II. Assumptions used in the simulations and comparative cases are described in Section III, and test results are presented. Finally, a concluding remark is given.

0885-8950 2013 IEEE

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Fig. 1. Establishment of deterministic and stochastic models of feeder node load proles.

II. EV CHARGING MODEL AND IMPACT ANALYSES With proper EV growth estimation and charging scenario assumptions, daily load proles of feeder nodes can be determined and used for impact analysis. A. Stochastic Models 1) Feeder Load Proles: Fig. 1 depicts a procedure of building deterministic and stochastic feeder nodes daily load proles. A scenario reduction algorithm [16], [17] detailed in Appendix A is used to deduce a set of load prole classes and occurrence probability from historical demand data. Using smart meter data in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) or other measurement at the service entry point, historical node load proles can be recorded. For N historical node load proles shown in Table I, the Kantorovich distance between load proles and can be calculated by (1) In step 3 of the proposed procedure shown in Appendix A, based on the calculated Kantorovich distances, representative load prole classes are conceived and the probability of a load

TABLE I ORIGINAL LOAD PROFILES

prole class is calculated based on the number of proles in the N historical load proles that are assigned to the class. The probability of each load prole class can be updated by using measurements at different time. To sum up, the process used to select most representative load proles is as follows. Step 1) Determine the load prole k to be removed from the original load prole set by using (2): (2) is the probability of load prole m, and J where is the removed load proles set. Step 2) Update the removed load prole set . Step 3) Update the probability of the load prole that is closest to the removed prole , .

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LEOU et al.: STOCHASTIC ANALYSES OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING IMPACTS ON DISTRIBUTION NETWORK 3

TABLE II DISTANCE MATRIX BETWEEN ALL LOAD PROFILES

Step 4) Return to Step 1 and repeat until the number of sorted load prole classes reaches a predetermined number. Table II shows examples of Kantorovich distances between load proles. At the completion of the above process, only a desired number of representative load proles are retained and each has a probability of occurrence as illustrated in Fig. 1. Distributions of hourly load can be determined based on the load proles in each class. The feeder node load proles are obtained by performing customer load survey and aggregating individual load proles served by each distribution transformer to deduce 10 most representative load curves. A distribution based on Roulette wheel selection concept that depicts the occurrence frequency of the load proles is used in the simulations. The Roulette wheel surface is divided into wedges representing the probabilities for each individual. The wedge k of the stochastic model is calculated by (3) where is the probability of the th representative load prole. An example of the unequally divided uniform distribution is shown at the left hand bottom of Fig. 1. In each Monte Carlo simulation, a number between 0 and 1 is generated by a random number generator for each node to determine the load prole used in the load ow study. If the number is between and , the th representative load prole is selected. A representative load prole with higher probability is more likely to be selected. 2) EV Start Charging Time: The number of EV and their charging locations are estimated based on load types of feeder serving areas and daily activities. For instance, the number of EV at each residential area is based on the maximum demands of distribution transformers and number of customers served. The start charging time and duration are dependent on the charging behavior of EV owners. As an example, Fig. 2 shows a probability distribution of EV start charging times from an EPRI report [19]. The authors have used measurement data at two large charging stations for building the stochastic models of charging time and duration information [7]. Using the same Roulette wheel selection concept described above, Fig. 3 shows an unequally divided uniform distribution of start charging time that is based on the probability density shown in Fig. 2. Random numbers can be generated to determine start charging time of each vehicle. 3) Battery SOC at Start Charging Time: Information of battery SOC can be obtained if the battery management system (BMS) information is opened to the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) or from EV charging behavior survey re-

Fig. 2. Probability distribution of start charging time.

Fig. 3. Stochastic model for EV start charging.

Fig. 4. Probability density of battery SOC at the charging start time.

sults. They can be used to build the stochastic model for SOC. Based on monitored SOC or using survey data, a probability density distribution of SOC values at charging time, such as that shown in Fig. 4 can be used to build a stochastic model for SOC at charging time as shown in Fig. 5. In the simulations, two charging levels, 1.9 kW and 6.6 kW, respectively, are used according to the SOC values randomly chosen. It is assumed that charging the battery from empty to full would require 8 hours and 3 hours by using level 1 and level 2 charging modes respectively. If constant current charging mode is used, the change of SOC during charging is (4) where N is the number of hours required for charging the battery from empty to fully charged. Using transformer demand information and the charging scenarios described, the EV charge demands at each feeder bus can be estimated and added to the non-EV charge base load for impact study. B. Impact Study Method In the modern distribution system, AMI data could also be used for distribution transformer load estimation and manage-

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Fig. 5. Stochastic model for EV battery SOC at start charging.

ment. If an EV charging service information platform is established, data of battery SOC and charging demand available in EV BMS can be used to determine the charging load of a feeder node. Depending on the data availability and accuracy, the following analytical approaches is used to study the EV charging impacts to the distribution network. If actual data is not available, the estimated numbers of EV at feeder nodes is calculated based on distribution transformer ratings: (5)

Fig. 6. Controlled charging for low voltage mitigation.

where Rated is the transformer rating at node i, TEvNo is the estimated total number of EV in the studied feeder, and is the number of EV at node i. After the number of EV at each node is determined, the increased charging load demand at each feeder node is calculated according to the start charging time and SOC values chosen from random number generator. Through Monte Carlo simulations, various charging scenarios are simulated in distribution load ow studies. If the load ow study results show that the system is under stress with possible low voltage ( 0.95 p.u.) or over current, controlled charging schemes shown in Fig. 6 and 7 are conducted to mitigate the problems. For a feeder node with low voltage, the charging sequence of EV at the node are adjusted according to their priority indices calculated by (6), which is based on EV battery SOC and their preferred departure time: (6) For vehicles with higher delay charging priority, the charging will be postponed rst for one time interval (e.g., 1 h), but full charge of the battery is guaranteed before the time for next trip. A load ow study is then executed and the security violation is re-checked. The process continues until that no violation exists or no EV charging is delayed. Similar to the controlled charging described above, at hours when the branch current is approaching the line limit, the EV charging requests at the downstream nodes with higher delay priority are postponed for one time interval. Monte Carlo simulations [20] are conducted to take uncertainties involved into account. Typical load proles for different day types can be computed for the simulations. Based on the load proles assigned to a certain class, the means and standard deviations of power consumptions at each hour can be derived.

Fig. 7. Controlled charging for line current reduction.

A distribution based on Roulette wheel selection concept that depicts the occurrence frequency of the load proles is used in the simulations. In each Monte Carlo simulation, a number between 0 and 1 is generated by a random number generator for each node to determine the load prole used. The randomness of hourly loads are simulated based on Gaussian distributions with the hourly averages and standard deviations determined. Therefore, the load prole could change for each Monte Carlo simulation and a representative load prole with higher probability is more likely to be selected. Fig. 8 shows the proposed stochastic approach which is described as follows.

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stopping rule in the sampling. An alternative is to use a prespecied number as the stopping rule. When the simulation process ends, the coefcient of variance is checked [20]. This paper adopts the coefcient of (standard deviation)/(mean value) being smaller than 0.01 as the criteria for convergence when Monte Carlo simulation completed. Impact Indicators: Voltage drop and line congestion indices are adopted as EV charging impact indicators. and in (7) and (8) represent the average and maximal voltage drops of all feeder nodes. Congestion indices of all lines in the studied network are calculated by (9) and (10):

(7)

(8) (9) (10) where and are the nominal voltage and branch current rating, respectively. and are node voltage and branch current at time t. and are numbers of feeder nodes and branches, respectively, and T is the number of time intervals. III. NUMERICAL RESULTS Matlab and OpenDSS software are used in this study to prepare and perform three-phase load ow studies for EV charging impact studies. The Matlab code calculates the increased charging load demands at each node and passes the feeder load models to OpenDSS for load ow studies. Data in the customer information system (CIS) and meter data management system (MDMS) of AMI, if available, can be used to augment feeder load model building. The power usage patterns of a charging station with 17 charging poles in Taichung city government complex was measured [7]. Based on actual measurement and survey information [18], stochastic models are derived and times for next trips are assumed. Several test systems were used and numerical results from a modied IEEE 13-bus test system and a 25-bus Taiwan Power Company (TPC) distribution system shown in Fig. 9 and 10, respectively, are presented. In the deterministic approach used for comparison, only the average and peak load scenarios of all conditions derived for Monte Carlo simulations are used in the load ow studies. Daily load proles of feeder nodes with hourly load distributions that have different means and standard deviations are assumed in the stochastic simulations. As described in Section II, with an assumption of total numbers of EV in the studied area and based on the load types and peak demand of each node, EV charging locations and numbers are determined. In the stochastic approach, 1000 load ow

Fig. 8. Flow diagram of the proposed stochastic simulations.

Fig. 9. IEEE 13-bus test system.

1) Daily load curves of each feeder node are chosen from the typical load proles with weather sensitivity adjustment. 2) The stochastic models for non-EV charging load prole, start charging time and battery SOC value are built based on earlier descriptions. The priorities of EV charging postponement for charging requests are determined. 3) Distribution feeder node loads including EV charging and non-EV charging loads are calculated by using parameter sampling from the stochastic models built in step 2. threephase load ow study is performed for each hour. If there is no security violation in the solution, go to step 5. 4) For hours with security violations, feeder load models are adjusted based on the controlled charging mode described in Fig. 6 and 7. Load ow calculation is performed again. 5) Steps 25 are repeated until a predened iteration number is reached. The coefcient of variance is often used as the

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Fig. 10. TPC 25-bus distribution system.

Fig. 12. Comparison of the average voltage drops indices.

TABLE III SIMULATION SCENARIOS

Fig. 13. Comparison of the maximum voltage drop indices.

Fig. 14. Comparison of the average congestion indices. Fig. 11. Comparison of average losses.

studies are performed to take uncertainties into account and determine the average losses, ranges of voltages and branch currents variations at feeder nodes and sections. Security violations and system performance indices are then calculated. The scenarios simulated and compared are shown in Table III. A. IEEE 13-Bus Test System 1) System Average Losses: The test system shown in Fig. 9 has peak loads of and . Fig. 11 shows the system loss changes when the number of EV increases from 0 to 500. Cases 1 and 2 have higher system losses. Average losses for Cases 5 and 6 are obtained from 1000 simulations. The difference between Cases 1 and 5 becomes greater when the EV penetration is higher. The averages of system losses calculated by using stochastic models (Cases 5 and 6) are close to those of Cases 3 and 4 which use average load models. 2) Voltage Drops: Fig. 12 shows the average voltage drop indices calculated. Cases 1 and 2 have higher average voltage drops. The average voltage drop indices obtained by Monte Carlo simulations would reect the actual average voltage drops of the system. Fig. 13 shows a comparison of maximal voltage drop indices. It can be seen that the stochastic approach provides the worst case scenarios and index distributions. Controlled charging could reduce the level of voltage drop.
Fig. 15. Comparison of the maximal congestion indices.

3) Network Congestion: Fig. 14 shows a comparison of average congestion indices. It can be seen that Cases 1 and 2 give pessimistic estimates on system congestion, and the distribution and average of congestion indices given by stochastic approach would indicate the actual range of the values. Fig. 15 shows the ranges of congestion index values, including worst and average scenarios obtained from stochastic approach. From Fig. 15 it can be seen that the proposed smart charging scheme could mitigate some overcurrent problems due to simultaneous EV charging. 4) Undervoltage and Overcurrent Events: Fig. 16 shows an increase of number of nodes with undervoltage and overcurrent events during a day in Case 1 (peak load model). Even with shunt compensation added at buses 111 and 112, under voltage starts to become a problem when the number of EV is greater than 200. The overcurrent events occur when the number of EV is higher than 500.

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TABLE V OCCURRENCE TIME, POSITION AND PROBABILITY WHEN NUMBER OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

OF

OVERCURRENT IN CASE 5

Fig. 16. Numbers of undervoltage and overcurrent events at nodes in Case 1.

Fig. 18. Average numbers of undervoltage and overcurrent events at nodes in 1000 simulations (Case 6). Fig. 17. Average numbers of undervoltage and overcurrent events at nodes in 1000 simulations (Case 5).

TABLE IV OCCURRENCE TIME, POSITION AND PROBABILITY OF UNDERVOLTAGE IN CASE 5 WITH 500 EV

TABLE VI OCCURRENCE TIME, POSITION AND PROBABILITY WHEN NUMBER OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

OF

UNDERVOLTAGE IN CASE 6

With the controlled charging scheme described in Section II, simulation results indicate that only when the EV number reaches 500, the low voltage becomes a problem. If the average feeder load models are used, no under voltage or over current event is found even when the number of EV reaches 500. This is an optimistic result and does not reect the possible impact of EV charging on the distribution network. Fig. 17 shows the variations of average numbers of undervoltage and overcurrent events in 1000 Monte Carlo simulations in Case 5. The average number shown is calculated by the number of total violation events at nodes divided by 1000 (simulations). Tables IV and V show the occurring locations and time of undervoltage and overcurrent events, respectively. Compared to deterministic approach (Cases 14), the stochastic approach detects more undervoltage and overcurrent events and provide more security risk information for the studied system.

Compared to Fig. 17, Fig. 18 shows a lower number of security violations when controlled charging is performed. With smart charging, there is no overcurrent event in case 6. Table VI shows the occurrence time and location of undervoltage. Compared with the results obtained in Case 2, the stochastic approach provides undervoltage events information and occurrence probability that are useful in assessing the impacts of EV charging loads. Numerical results show that the EV charging period has large inuence on the distribution system loading. If multi vehicles are charged during peak load hours, distribution transformer capacity upgrade or new ones may be required when EV penetration is high. On the other hand, if EV charging is controlled, utilization factor of the assets can be improved. B. 25-Bus Test System A practical TPC 22.8-kV 25-bus system shown in Fig. 10 has a peak loads of and . The simulation scenarios are the same as that shown in Table III. Comparisons of system average losses and voltage drops, are shown below. 1) System Average Losses: Fig. 19 shows the average losses of the six cases tested. Since there is no security violation, results of uncontrolled and controlled charging mode are the same. System losses increase as the EV penetration becoming high. 2) Voltage Drops: Similar to those shown in Fig. 13, Fig. 20 indicates that the stochastic approach is capable of providing more voltage security concern information under different penetration levels of EV. With higher line capability, there is no

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The element in this set is (A2) The probability of each element satises (A3)
Fig. 19. Comparison of average losses of the TPC system.

The scenario reduction algorithm derives a partial scenario set Q that is the closest to the original scenario P. Q is also an n-dimensional stochastic process, the probability of scenario in Q is , , J represents the set deleted from the original scenario set P. For xed , the scenario set Q based on the scenarios having minimal Kantorovich Distance which is calculated by (A4) where measures the distance between scenarios on the whole time horizon . The probability of the reduced set element , is as expressed as follows: (A5) where , ,

Fig. 20. Comparison of the maximum voltage drop indices of the TPC system.

voltage and branch current violation, the controlled charging scheme is not executed.

IV. CONCLUSIONS Distribution system circuit information, car driving patterns, charging characteristics, charging timing, and vehicle penetration are used to conceive system operation scenarios. While the deterministic approach is useful for worst and average case scenario studies, the security violation frequency, average loss, voltage drop and line congestions under largely uncertain conditions are unavailable. Roulette wheel selection concept and Monte Carlo simulations are used to take various uncertainties into account. The capability of providing security risk information by the deterministic and stochastic analytical approaches is compared and impacts due to a controlled and uncontrolled charging are analyzed. The security risk information obtained by the proposed stochastic approach allows distribution system planner make informed decision to optimize the use of existing distribution network and accommodate higher EV penetration. Numerical results show that smart charging could mitigate security problems due to widespread adoption of EV. APPENDIX A SCENARIO REDUCTION ALGORITHM Many methods have been proposed in the literatures to reduce probable scenarios of the system with a hope that the reduced scenarios can represent the original system condently [16]. Assume the original scenario set P is an n-dimension stochastic process as shown in (A1): (A1)

. For the reduced set Q of xed number s, the execution steps of optimal selection of J are as described as follows. Step 1) Determine the scenario to be removed from the original scenario set (A6) Step 2) Update the removed scenario set Step 3) Update the probability of the scenario the removed scenario , with . closest to

(A7) where .

Step 4) Return to Step 1 and repeat until the number of the reduced set is the predetermined number. REFERENCES
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Rong-Ceng Leou (M13) received the Ph.D. degree from National Sun Yat-Sen University, Taiwan. He is interested in transmission and distribution system planning. Currently, he is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Cheng-Shiu University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

Chun-Lien Su (S97M01) was born in Taiwan in 1971. He received the Diploma of Electrical Engineering from National Kaohsiung Institute of Technology, Taiwan, the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the National Sun Yat-Sen University, Taiwan in 1992, 1997, and 2001, respectively. Since 2002, he has been with the National Kaohsiung Marine University, Taiwan, and is now an Associate Professor of the Marine Engineering Department. His research interests include power system analysis and computing, distributed energy management, and ship electric power system.

Chan-Nan Lu (SM99F08) has been with the Department of Electrical Engineering, National Sun Yat-sen University, Taiwan, since 1989. His main areas of interest are computer applications to power systems, distribution automations, and power quality.