Climate Change And Pastures

B D Campbell AgResearch, Palmerston North

Summary
Climate is a key component in the success of New Zealand dairy production systems. The most up-to-date scientific evidence indicates that climate is changing and may change more in the future. Increases have been observed in ultraviolet radiation and carbon dioxide in a range that may affect pastures, and a discernible human influence on climate has been noted that is expected to increase in the future. An average increase in pasture production of 10-15% is predicted by 2050-2100, but the effect may be negative in some regions and higher in others. A change in species composition is expected, with a significant increase in the range and abundance of subtropical grasses. The nutritive value of forage is expected to be reduced by the presence of the subtropical grasses. The impact of the changes on farming will be highly dependent on the extent to which there is active adaptation of

farm management to minimise threats and capitalise on opportunities. These active management opportunities include adapting use of water resources, pasture renewal, forage plant genetic resources, grazing management, and types of livestock systems.

Introduction
Climate is a key driver of pasture production in New Zealand. Our predominantly grass feeding systems are geared to matching animal requirements to climate-driven feed supply, by adjusting calving dates, feed conservation and other farm management tools. The past year has been an important one in understanding the possibility that climate may change in the future as a result of releasing greenhouse gases (predominantly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)) to the atmosphere. In 1995, the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a compilation of the scientific evidence on climate change from hundreds of scientists around the world, concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there has been a discernible human influence on global climate (IPCC, 1995). The report also concluded that climate is expected to continue to change in the future. The increase of the whole globe surface temperature is highly dependent on the rates of release of greenhouse gases, but is expected

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to be in the range of 1-3.5C by 2100, relative to 1990 (IPCC, 1995). This prediction is still subject to uncertainty, and there is less confidence in predictions for regions the size of New Zealand than there is for the whole planet. There is also already clear evidence that changes are taking place in the earths atmosphere which are increasing ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels in New Zealand (due to global production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone depleting chemicals). Increases are also being observed in the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. These two changes have different causes, but both are expected to have direct effects on pastures, in addition to effects of changes in climate. As part of a risk-and-opportunity assessment for New Zealand and the dairy industry, it is appropriate to begin to consider what implications these changes may have on dairy pastures in the future.

rates of emission from human activities, and may rise from the current 358 ppm to a range of 480680 ppm by 2100, using the lower bounds of the DECO and IS92a scenarios (IPCC, 1995). The annual UV doses in New Zealand are also expected to rise at a rate of about 10% per decade up to about 2050, then subsequently recover if international agreements on CFC reduction strategies are adhered to. New Zealand is also already a high UV environment, relative to similar latitudes in the northern hemisphere.

Pasture Production
At present, prediction of the impacts of these climatic changes on production systems is difficult because of uncertainties about the likely changes in regional climate and the sensitivity of the systems to climate change. Most of what can be said about the changes at the national or regional scale is qualitative, rather than quantitative (Campbell et al., 1996a), and most analyses of climate change impacts therefore contain the words could or might far more often than is desirable. Research is currently being started to try to produce more quantitative estimates of future changes. The most quantitative data on the sensitivity of future pasture production to climate, CO 2 and UV currently comes from specific experimental studies conducted on particular pasture types or locations, often in artificial controlled conditions. Although estimates of the rate of increase in UV levels is quite precise, and effects on pasture are likely (Campbell and Grime, 1993), it is not possible to give accurate predictions of the effects on pasture because the sensitivity of pasture is unknown. In laboratory studies, a depression in yield is often observed with elevated UV (Campbell and Grime, 1993). Similarly for CO2 effects, most data comes from short-term laboratory studies. For example, Newton et al. (1994) exposed ryegrass and white clover based pastures to 700 ppm CO2 for 217 days under three different temperature regimes and observed 8% higher growth on average than those grown at 355 ppm. This increase was only evident at the two higher temperature regimes (16C and 22C). Research is currently in progress to provide more realistic estimates of UV and CO2 effects.

Future Climate Scenarios

The current ability of climate scientists to simulate regional climate is not sufficient to make detailed predictions of future regional climate change. However, plausible scenarios of future regional changes in temperature and precipitation have been produced (Mullan, 1994), based on a number of assumptions. An example of the latest scenarios for New Zealand for a 1C increase in global surface temperature is presented in Figure 1. The warming over New Zealand is less than the global average, with slightly greater warming in the South Island than the North Island and slightly greater warming in winter than in summer. A greater frequency of high temperature extremes, and a reduced frequency of frosts, is also predicted. There are marked differences between regions in the magnitude and sign of the rainfall changes, with a larger precipitation increase (or smaller decrease) for summer than for winter, and for the North Island than for the South Island. It is expected that there will be a general increase in rainfall intensities and in the frequency of occurrence of heavy rainfall events under a warming scenario. The change in CO2 concentrations over this time frame will depend very much on the net

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Figure 1: Examples of (a) local annual average temperature (C) change per degree of global warming, and local precipitation change (%) in (b) summer and (c) winter per degree of global warming. The examples represent the weak (Rank 4) and strong (Rank 2) case responses, from a comparison of five global climate models (GCMs) from an analysis by Mullan (1994). Shading is used to highlight precipitation decreases (shaded) and increases (hatched).

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There are difficulties in scaling up these observations to produce predictions of the sensitivity of regional pasture production to climate change. Some attempts have been made (e.g. Salinger et al., 1990). Other predictions have been produced using mathematical models (Martin et al., 1991), but these involved the use of un-validated models and several of the assumptions (such as a large growth response to CO2 based on significantly enhanced photosynthetic rates) now appear unrealistic. Effort is currently being concentrated on producing updated model estimates. An example of the expected rate of change in pastures given the above climate scenario (but not taking into account changes in UV levels) is provided by Salinger et al. (1990). Here, a scenario of 500 ppm CO2 concentration and average temperature increase of 1.5C is predicted to result in:

drought, heavy rainfall events), longer term changes in climate means, and increases in atmospheric CO2. This has implications for both productivity and nutritive value. A trend to a decrease in the proportion of ryegrass is expected in warmer, northern regions, with an associated increase in subtropical summer grasses. Ryegrass is also expected to become less prominent in drier east coast areas and in areas with increased damage from pasture pests. Here, alternative grass species (cocksfoot, tall fescue) may become increasingly important. Based on a number of experiments, white clover is expected to increase in proportion as a result of the increase in atmospheric CO 2 (Newton et al., 1994), with the size and significance of the increase being dependent on prevailing seasonal temperature and rainfall (Campbell et al., 1995). Overlying this will also be the less well understood effects of climatic variability, increased competition from subtropical grasses and increased UV radiation, which are all expected to reduce clover proportions in summer. Legumes are generally recognised as particularly vulnerable to UV damage (Campbell and Grime, 1993), but little data are available for white clover. At present, it is difficult to predict what the net effect of all these changes would mean for clover content. Subtropical grasses Subtropical grasses have a higher temperature optimum for growth than the traditional temperate species ryegrass and white clover, and are also more tolerant of hot periods and less tolerant of frosts and chilling (Campbell et al., 1996b). Consequently, an increase in the abundance of subtropical grasses is anticipated in the future, especially where there are increases in summer temperatures and rainfall, such as the Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions. As a general rule of thumb, if the rain falls when the temperature is above 25C, this tends to favour subtropical species over temperate species. Increased winter rainfall may also contribute to subtropical grass invasion because of greater pugging damage to the temperate species, opening up pastures for subsequent invasion in spring. From laboratory experiments, increases in CO2 are predicted to reduce the competitive

an increase in average production of

ryegrass-white clover pasture of 10 to 15 percent and higher winter production,

restricted summer production in east coast

areas, due to decreased rainfall associated with increased temperature and net radiation,

an extension of subtropical grass pastures as

far southwards as Taranaki and Manawatu, with an associated marked summer production peak of subtropical grasses, but little increase in winter production,

an increase in the incidence of pests and

diseases of pastures and livestock,

a reduction in soil nitrogen release in spring

with higher winter temperatures, as well as faster nutrient cycling,

increased year-to-year variability in animal

production in eastern and southern regions, but decreased variability for dairy production for high rainfall regions such as the Waikato.

Pasture Composition
Ryegrass and white clover The composition of pastures is expected to be sensitive to future changes brought about by increases in UV, increases in climatic variability, and extreme climatic events (frost, hot days,

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abilities of subtropical (C4) species relative to temperate (C 3 ) species. However, the significance of this effect under realistic field conditions is unclear and the CO2 effect may be small in relation to the direct effects of climate. The rate of increase in subtropical grass abundance is not expected to be linear but will vary widely from year to year. The greatest abundances will coincide with years having a greater frequency of warm and wet days, such as experienced in the 1990-91 season and to some extent this last 1995-96 summer. This current variability is associated with the El Nino/ Southern Oscillation index. Many of the grasses that are expected to increase in future are already present in pastures in a C3-C4 transition zone, which extends from Northland to Manawatu and also into limited parts around Nelson and the South Island west coast. These grasses (Table 1) have a variety of growth forms and include both annual and perennial types. Both perennial and annual types are expected to increase in the future. These grasses present both opportunities and threats, including:

poor cool-season growth rates and poor

tolerance of chilling and frost,

low nutritive value, high competitive effects, resulting in loss of

ryegrass and clover, some toxicity to stock. From what is understood of the general biology of these species, it is expected that the perennial species paspalum and kikuyu will increase in range and abundance in more productive pastures, and ratstail, carpet grass and knot-root bristle grass in less productive pastures. The annual species (smooth witchgrass, summer grass and crowfoot grass) are expected to become increasingly important in intensively-used dairying areas. Some of these annuals are recent introductions to New Zealand. For example, smooth witchgrass was first recorded in 1945 but is now widespread in pastures. Up to 5000 seeds/m2 have been recorded in soil cores in the Bay of Plenty (Bell, 1996), indicating considerable potential for future invasion when conditions permit. The rates of ingress of subtropical grasses into pastures will depend heavily on both the climatic conditions and the prevailing grazing management applied. Disturbance of pasture cover will facilitate an accelerated ingress of invading species, especially where there are even minor increases in summer rainfall (Table 2).

high warm-season growth rates and tolerance

of drought and heat stress, tolerance of pests,

Table 1:

Characteristics of ten subtropical grasses common in New Zealand pastures.

Species Life history perennial Description Spreading, stoloniferous, light-green grass; warm, moist sites; lower-fertility, summer-dry soils; cattle and sheep pastures and some dairy pastures. Tufted, spreading grass; heavily disturbed areas. Spreading, mat-forming, stoloniferous and rhizomatous; moderate - high fertility, dry to very dry sites; cattle and sheep pastures. Spreading, stoloniferous and rhizomatous; warm, moist fertile sites but can withstand some drought; frost sensitive. Spreading rhizomatous; moderate - high fertility sites. Spreading, stoloniferous, rhizomatous, forming loose mat; wet sites; heavily trodden areas. Tufted, rhizomatous; widespread; warm, moist sites; moderate drought tolerance. Tufted; sunny, dry, north-facing slopes and dry, light soils; cattle, sheep and coastal pastures. Tufted; adventive in pastures and disturbed sites; survives drier situations; dairy and cattle pastures. Tufted; disturbed sites; light soils; dairy and cattle pastures.

Common name carpet grass

Axonopus affinis Chase

crowfoot grass Indian doab

Eleusine indica Gaertn. Cynodon dactylon L.

annual perennial

kikuyu

Pennisetum clandestinum Chiov.

perennial

knot root bristle grass Mercer grass paspalum ratstail smooth witchgrass summer grass

Setaria geniculata (Poir.) P. Beauv. Paspalum distichum L. Paspalum dilatatum Poir. Sporobolus africanus (Poir.) Robyns and Tourn. Panicum dichotomiflorum Michx. Digitaria sanguinalis (L.) Scop.

perennial perennial perennial perennial annual annual

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Table 2:

Effects of combinations of additional water and disturbance on summer grass seedling shoot mass (g) in a Manawatu dairy pasture in summer (White, Campbell and Kemp, unpublished data). The existing ryegrass/white clover pasture was disturbed in early summer by scuffing 150 mm diameter circular areas and water was applied by irrigation.
Amount of water added (mm/week) 0 3 8 15 30

Amount of disturbance added (per m2)

0 13 25 50 100

.2 .2 .4 .7 1.7

.3 .5 .5 .7 3.1

.3 .4 .4 .8 3.5

.5 .4 .5 1.5 4.4

.3 .4 .6 1.2 4.7

Water x disturbance effect significant P<0.01.

Pasture Nutritive Value

The anticipated changes in climate are expected to produce both positive and negative effects on pasture nutritive value, through increases in clover content, decreases in digestibility, and increases in subtropical grass abundance. On balance, the prevailing direction of change is expected to be negative. A reduction in forage quality with increasing proportions of subtropical grasses is expected to be a dominant influence. These grasses have lower protein and higher fibre contents than ryegrass (Jackson et al., 1996) and, consequently, have lower organic matter digestibility (Table 3). A higher incidence of droughts and hot periods, producing death of shoots and plants, would also reduce pasture nutritive value. An increase in CO 2 is also expected to increase the carbon to nitrogen ratio in forage, reducing nutritive value. Table 3:

Implications for Future Pasture and Livestock Management

The outcome of the climatic changes on production, composition and nutritive value will be strongly determined by the way pasture renewal and grazing management programmes are implemented on farms (Gifford, Campbell and Howden, 1996). It is anticipated that changes in management may be used to offset potential losses, provided that the changes and possible threats can be adequately anticipated. In this respect, more quantitative data are required on rates of change in pasture and nutritive value in response to climate. The recent IPCC analysis of agriculture (IPCC, 1995) observes that adaptation (such as changes in forage plants and crop varieties,

Nutritive value of five common subtropical grasses and ryegrass (Jackson et al., 1996).
Crude protein (% DM) Neutral detergent fibre (% DM) 64 58 62 56 48 38 Organic matter digestibility (% OM) 61 67 64 68 74 84

Common name

crowfoot grass kikuyu paspalum smooth witchgrass summer grass perennial ryegrass

8 17 16 10 16 23

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improved water management and irrigation systems, and changes in planting schedules and tillage practices) will be important in limiting negative effects and taking advantage of beneficial changes in climate. The extent of adaptation will depend very much on the affordability of such measures, access to knowhow and technology, the rate of climate change, and biophysical constraints such as water availability, soil characteristics and plant genetics. In New Zealand, it is anticipated that the rate of adaptation may be high, especially in dairy production systems. Changes are therefore to be anticipated in farm management. Some of the changes will be direct changes in livestock, through alterations in the amount and seasonal distribution of feed quality and quantity, and animal and plant pests and diseases. Other changes will arise through direct pro-active adaptation responses to capitalise on opportunities and minimise potential threats of climate change, with options including:

movement of dairying south, sheep farming

to eastern and southern parts of both islands, and beef cattle to northern and western parts of both islands. Changes in the economics of farming are also expected to result from climate change effects on offshore pastures and crops in other parts of the world. For example, anticipated climate change effects on grain prices and livestock farming efficiencies in the United States and Europe would be likely to alter production costs, trading volumes and world prices for livestock products. An important local tool for farming in New Zealand in the future may be the use of forecasting of problem years for subtropical grasses or droughts. This would be based on understanding of climatic patterns and climatic conditions (such as higher summer temperatures and rainfall), and the sensitivity of pastures to loss of temperate species and invasion of subtropical grasses. Such an approach would allow farmers to make more use of forecasting in making management decisions, rather than as at present where decisions are based primarily on historical experience.

more extensive use of irrigation in dairying, increased pasture renewal and use of
improved species,

adjustment of management practices to

accommodate the presence of subtropical species,

Acknowledgements
Thanks to Harry Clark and Paul Newton for helpful comments on this paper and to Todd White for use of unpublished data. This research was supported by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology under Contract Number C10535. This research contributes at the core research level to the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems project of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme.

improvement of ryegrass and white clover to

fit a C3-C4 transition zone where subtropical species are also present, and possibly improvement and use of subtropical forage species,

greater use of alternative summer species

(e.g. cocksfoot, tall fescue) in pastures,

development of forage plants with greater

tolerance of UV radiation,

References
Bell CC, 1996. Subtropical seed-bank of a Bay of Plenty dairy farm. Proceedings of the New Zealand Grassland Association 57: 59-62. Campbell BD, Grime JP, 1993. Prediction of grassland plant responses to global change. Proceedings of the XVII International Grassland Congress: 1109-1118.

increased fertiliser applications to take

advantage of better climatic conditions for pasture growth,

increases in stock numbers and export

volume of milk fat, lamb, beef meat and wool, (however, significant farm management changes would be necessary),

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Campbell BD, Laing WA, Greer DH, Crush JR, Clark H, Williamson DY, Given MDJ, 1995. Variation in grassland populations and species and implications for community responses to elevated CO 2. Journal of Biogeography 22: 315-322. Campbell BD, McKeon GM, Gifford RM, Clark H, Stafford Smith MS, Newton PCD, Lutze J L, 1996a. Impacts of atmospheric composition and climate change on temperate and tropical pastoral agriculture. In: Greenhouse: Coping With Climate Change (Ed by G.I. Pearman and M. Manning) CSIRO, Melbourne. Campbell BD, Wardle DA, Woods P, Field TRO, Williamson DY, Barker GM, 1996b. Ecology of subtropical grasses in temperate pastures: an overview. Proceedings of New Zealand Grassland Association 57: 189-197. Gifford RM, Campbell BD, Howden SM, 1996. Options for adapting agriculture to climate change. In: Greenhouse: Coping With Climate Change (Ed by GI Pearman and M Manning) CSIRO, Melbourne. IPCC, 1995. IPCC Second Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press. Jackson FS, McNabb WC, Peters JS, Barry TN, Campbell BD, Ulyatt MJ, 1996. Nutritive value of subtropical grasses invading North Island pastures. Proceedings of the New Zealand Grassland Association 57: 203-206. Martin RJ, Korte CJ, McCall DG, Baird DB, Newton PCD, Barlow ND, 1991. Impact of potential change in climate and atmospheric concentration of CO2 on pasture and animal production in New Zealand. Proceedings of the New Zealand Society of Animal Production 51: 25-33. Mullan AB, 1994. Climate Change Scenarios for New Zealand. Statement for Greenhouse 94. National Institute of Water and Atmosphere Research, Wellington. Newton PCD, Clark H, Bell CC, Glasgow EM, Campbell BD, 1994. Effects of elevated CO2 and simulated seasonal changes in temperature on the species composition and growth rate of pasture turves. Annals of Botany 73: 53-59.

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