Choice: Making the Trade-Offs

What makes
choosing so
difficult?

1

First eliminate all alternatives that
don’t meet your “must” criteria
So what do you do?
The Gibson’s New Home The Gibson’s House Purchase
Musts:
Down payment <= $20,000
Monthly payment <= $2,000
Bedrooms: 4+
Bathrooms: 2+
Location: Not downtown or over
45 minutes commute to work
Occupancy: w/in 60 days
Wants:
Minimum down payment
Low monthly payment
Location convenient to work
Use present furnishings, drapes,
etc.
Wants (continued):
Shelter for 2 cars
Public transportation nearby
Convenient to schools
Convenient to shopping, etc.
Workshop & storage space
Stable resale value
Attractive modern style
Good landscaping
Large play area for kids
Large, modern kitchen w/view
Large comfortable family room
Quiet Street, good neighborhood
Minimum maintenance costs
Minimum risks – tax increase
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 Must criteria analysis Must criteria analysis Then create your consequence matrix

Musts House A House B House C Musts House A House B House C

Down Payment <= $20,000 $17,500 $16,000 $19,500 Down Payment <= $20,000 $17,500 $16,000 $19,500

Monthly payment <= $2,000 $2,000 $1,600 $2,500 Monthly payment <= $2,000 $2,000 $1,600 $2,500
FAIL
4 + Bedrooms 4 4 4 + Bedrooms 4 4

2+ baths 2 2 2+ baths 2 2

Not downtown or over 45 minutes 30 22 minutes Not downtown or over 45 minutes 30 22 minutes
compute time to work minutes compute time to work minutes
Occupancy within 60 days 45 days 45 days Occupancy within 60 days 45 days 45 days

Wants House A House B Wants House A House B

Minimum down payment $17,500 $16,000 Attractive modern style Good Excellent
Lowest monthly payment $2,000 $1,600 Good landscaping New OK
Location convenient to work Good OK Large play area for kids Unfenced Fenced
Use present furnishing, drapes Good Very good Large, modern kitchen w/view Good Good
Shelter for 2 cars Carport Garage Large comfortable family room Yes None
Public transportation near Bus Bus close Quiet street, good Good Fair
Convenient to schools .5 mile .25 mile neighborhood Now start making trade-offs
Convenient to shopping, etc. I mile .5 mile Minimum maintenance costs Good Average
Workshop & storage space Large Poor Minimum risk- tax increase High Low
Stable resale value Good Good

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 Dominated Alternatives The Dominated Alternatives If alternative A is better than alternative
& Even Swaps technique eliminates inferior B on some objectives & no worse than
alternatives. B on all other objectives, B can be
eliminated.

Weekend Getaway Weekend Getaway

Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway
A B C D E A B C D E
Low $450 $500 $500 $450 $500 Low $450 $500 $500 $450 $500
cost cost
Good Warm, Warm & Cold Cool Cold Good Warm, Warm & Cold Cool Cold
weather possible sunny weather possible sunny
rain rain
Short 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 2.5 Short 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 2.5
travel hours travel hours
time time
Practical dominance: a slight advantage
on one objective does not outweigh the
disadvantages on the other factors

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Weekend Getaway Weekend Getaway
Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway Getaway
A B C D E A B C D E
Low $450 $500 $500 $450 $500 Low $450 $500 $500 $450 $500
cost cost
Good Warm, Warm & Cold Cool Cold Good Warm, Warm & Cold Cool Cold
weather possible sunny weather possible sunny
rain rain
Short 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 2.5 Short 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 2.5
travel hours travel hours
time time
If all alternatives for a given objective
are rated equally, you can ignore that
objective in choosing alternatives.

Vincent’s Job Decision Vincent’s Job Decision

Consequence Table Consequence Table
Alternatives Alternatives
Objectives Job A Job B Job C Job D Job E Objectives Job A Job B Job C Job D Job E
Monthly $2,000 $2,400 $1,800 $1,900 $2,200 Monthly $2,000 $2,400 $1,800 $1,900 $2,200

Salary 3 1 5 4 2 Salary
3 1 5 4 2
Schedule Moderate Low High Moderate None Schedule Moderate Low High Moderate None
Vincent’s decision Flexibility 2 tie 4 1 2 tie 5 Flexibility
2 tie 4 1 2 tie 5
Computer Computer Operations Organiza- Multi- Computer Computer Operations Organiza- Multi-
Skills Computer tional tasking
Skills 4 1 3
Computer 5
tional 2
tasking
Development 4 1 Manage 3 5 2 Development
Manage
People Time Mgmt People Time Mgmt
14 12 10 15 12 14 12 10 15
Vacation annual 2 3 tie 5 1 3 tie Vacation annual 2 3 tie 5 1 3 tie12
days days
Health, 2 Health, Health Health, Health, Health, Health, Health Health, Health,
Benefits 1 dental, tie dental
5 4
retirement
2 tie
dental Benefits 1
dental, 2 tie
dental 5 4
retirement 2dental
tie
retirement retirement

Enjoyment 1 tie Great 3 tie Good 3 tie Good 1tie Great 5 Boring Enjoyment 1Great
tie 3Good
tie 3 Good
tie Great
1tie 5Boring

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 Vincent’s Job Decision Vincent’s Job Decision Vincent’s Job Decision
Consequence Table Consequence Table Consequence Table
Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives
Objectives Job A Job B Job C Job D Job E Objectives Job A Job B Job C Job D Job E Objectives Job A Job B Job C Job D Job E
Monthly $2,000 $2,400 $1,800 $1,900 $2,200 Monthly $2,000 $2,400 $1,800 $1,900 $2,200 Monthly $2,000 $2,400 $1,800 $1,900 $2,200

Salary
3 1 5 4 2 Salary
3 1 5 4 2 Salary
3 1 5 4 2
Schedule Moderate Low High Moderate None Schedule Moderate Low High Moderate None Schedule Moderate Low High Moderate None
Flexibility
2 tie 4 1 2 tie 5 Flexibility
2 tie 4 1 2 tie 5 Flexibility
2 tie 4 1 2 tie 5
Computer Computer Operations Organiza- Multi- Computer Computer Operations Organiza- Multi- Computer Computer Operations Organiza- Multi-
Skills 4 1 3
Computer 5
tional 2tasking
Skills 4 1 3
Computer 5tional 2tasking
Skills 4 1 3
Computer 5tional 2tasking
Manage Manage Manage
Development People Time Mgmt Development People Time Mgmt Development People Time Mgmt
14 12 10 15
Vacation annual 2 3 tie 5 1 3 tie12 Vacation annual 2 14 12
3 tie 5 10
1 15
3 tie12 Vacation annual 2 14 12
3 tie 5 10
1 15
3 tie12
days days days
Health, Health, Health Health, Health, Health, Health, Health Health, Health, Health, Health, Health Health, Health,
Benefits 1
dental, 2 tie
dental 5 4
retirement 2 tie
dental Benefits 1
dental, 2 tie
dental 5 4
retirement 2 tie
dental Benefits 1
dental, 2 tie
dental 5 4
retirement 2dental
tie
retirement retirement retirement

Enjoyment 1Great
tie 3Good
tie 3 Good
tie Great
1tie 5Boring Enjoyment 1Great
tie 3Good
tie 3 Good
tie Great
1tie 5Boring Enjoyment 1Great
tie 3Good
tie 3 Good
tie Great
1tie 5Boring

Continental United Continental United

Even Swaps Even Swaps

1.Determine Cost of 2.Assess what Cost of

$900 $1,000 $900 $1,000
Airfare Airfare
necessary change in
change to Frequent another Frequent
Flier None 2,000 Flier None 2,000
cancel out Miles objective Miles
objective would
compensate
Use even swaps to eliminate some for the change
objectives!

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 Continental United Continental United Continental United
Even Swaps Even Swaps Even Swaps

3.Make the even Cost of Cost of Cost of

$900 $1,000 $900 $1,000 $900 $1,000
Airfare Airfare Airfare
swap $950

Frequent Frequent Frequent

Flier None 2,000 Flier None 2,000 Flier None 2,000
Miles Miles Miles

What are frequent flyer miles worth If FF Miles = $50, then United ticket
to you? can be reduced to $950

Continental United Continental United

Even Swaps Even Swaps
Cost of Cost of
$900 $1,000 $900 $1,000
Airfare Airfare
$850 $900

Frequent Frequent Let’s look at

Flier None 2,000 Flier None 2,000 Alan’s office
Miles Miles
decision

If FF Miles = $150, then United ticket If FF Miles = $100, then United ticket
can be reduced to $850 can be reduced to $900

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 Alan’s Office Decision Rank alternatives on each objective Rank alternatives on each objective

Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives

Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint
Alan’s Alan’s Alan’s
Commute
45 min 25 min 20 min 25 min 30 min Commute
45 min 25 min 20 min 25 min 30 min Commute
5 2 (tie) 1 2 (tie) 4
Client Access 50% 80% 70% 85% 75% Client Access 50% 80% 70% 85% 75% Client Access 5 2 4 1 3
Office Office Office
Services
A B C A C Services
A B C A C Services
1 (tie) 3 4 (tie) 1 (tie) 4 (tie)

Office Size 800 sq ft 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft Office Size 800 sq ft 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft Office Size 2 3 (tie) 5 1 3 (tie)

Monthly Cost $1,850 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,750 Monthly Cost $1,850 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,750 Monthly Cost 4 2 1 5 3

Rank alternatives on each objective Rank alternatives on each objective Rank alternatives on each objective
Look for Dominated Alternatives Look for Dominated Alternatives Look for Dominated Alternatives

Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives

Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint
Alan’s Alan’s Alan’s
Commute
5 2 (tie) 1 2 (tie) 4 Commute
5 2 (tie) 1 2 (tie) 4 Commute
5 2 (tie) 1 2 (tie) 4
Client Access 5 2 4 1 3 Client Access 5 2 4 1 3 Client Access 5 2 4 1 3
Office Office Office
Services
1 (tie) 3 4 (tie) 1 (tie) 4 (tie) Services
1 (tie) 3 4 (tie) 1 (tie) 4 (tie) Services
1 (tie) 3 4 (tie) 1 (tie) 4 (tie)

Office Size 2 3 (tie) 5 1 3 (tie) Office Size 2 3 (tie) 5 1 3 (tie) Office Size 2 3 (tie) 5 1 3 (tie)

Monthly Cost 4 2 1 5 3 Monthly Cost 4 2 1 5 3 Monthly Cost 4 2 1 5 3

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Rank alternatives on each objective Rank alternatives on each objective Rank alternatives on each objective
Look for Dominated Alternatives Look for Dominated Alternatives Look for Dominated Alternatives
$50 = 150 square feet

Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives

Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint
Alan’s Alan’s Alan’s
Commute
5 2 (tie) 1 2 (tie) 4 Commute
45 min 25 min 20 min 25 min 30 min Commute
45 min 25 min 20 min 25 min 30 min
Client Access 5 2 4 1 3 Client Access 50% 80% 70% 85% 75% Client Access 50% 80% 70% 85% 75%
Office Office Office
Services
1 (tie) 3 4 (tie) 1 (tie) 4 (tie) Services
A B C A C Services
A B C A C

Office Size 2 3 (tie) 5 1 3 (tie) Office Size 800 sq ft 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft Office Size 800 sq ft 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft

Monthly Cost 4 2 1 5 3 Monthly Cost $1,850 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,750 Monthly Cost $1,850 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,750

Now look for “even swaps” Now look for “even swaps” Now look for “even swaps”

Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana
Alan’s 25 min 20 min 25 min Alan’s 25 min 20 min 25 min Alan’s 25 min 20 min 25 min
Commute Commute Commute 25 min
80% 70% 85% 80% 70% 85% 80% 70% 85%
Client Access Client Access Client Access
78%
Office B C A Office B C A Office B C A
Services B B Services B B Services B B

Office Size 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft Office Size 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft Office Size 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft

$1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900

Monthly Cost Monthly Cost Monthly Cost
$1,750 $1,800 $1,750 $1,800 $1,750 $1,800

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Now look for “even swaps” Now look for “even swaps” Now look for “even swaps”

Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana
Alan’s 25 min 20 min 25 min Alan’s 25 min 20 min 25 min Alan’s 25 min 20 min 25 min
Commute 25 min Commute 25 min Commute 25 min
80% 70% 85% 80% 70% 85% 80% 70% 85%
Client Access Client Access Client Access
78% 78% 78%
Office B C A Office B C A Office B C A
Services B B Services Services B
Office Size 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft Office Size 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft
Office Size
$1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900
Monthly Cost Monthly Cost Monthly Cost
$1,750 $1,800 $1,750 $1,750

Now look for “even swaps” Do we see any more dominated Do we see any more dominated
alternatives? alternatives?
Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana
Alan’s 25 min 20 min 25 min
Commute 25 min
Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana
80% 70% 85%
Client Access 80% 70% 85% 2 3 1
78% Client Access Client Access
Office B C A 78%
Services B B 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 2 3 1
Office Size Office Size
Office Size 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft
$1,700 $1,500 $1,900 1 2 3
$1,700 $1,500 $1,900
Monthly Cost Monthly Cost
Monthly Cost $1,750 $1,800
$1,750 $1,850

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Do we see any more dominated
One more pass at even swaps… One more pass at even swaps…
alternatives?

Objectives Lombard Baranov Montana Objectives Lombard Montana Objectives Lombard Montana
2 3 1 Client Access 80% 85% Client Access 80% 85%
Client Access
700 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft 950 sq ft
2 3 1 Office Size Office Size
Office Size 950 sq ft
1 2 3 $1,700 $1,800 $1,700 $1,800
Monthly Cost Monthly Cost Monthly Cost

One more pass at even swaps…

Make the
Practical
Objectives Lombard Montana easiest
Client Access 80% 85%
Advice
swaps first
700 sq ft 950 sq ft
Office Size
950 sq ft
$1,700 $1,800
Monthly Cost
$1,950

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 Value an
Concentrate incremental
on the change
Seek out
amount of based on
information
the swap what you
start with

“Must” criteria
Weighted Scoring are absolute and
can not be
Practice weighted
makes
perfect

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“Must” criteria
are absolute and First, establish Next, establish
can not be Importance Achievement
weighted Scores for each Scores for each
“want” objective alternative on
Do not include each objective
any “must”
criteria in this
analysis

Alan’s Office Decision

Weighted Scoring
Finally, calculate Objectives Importance
Score
weighted score Alternatives Alan’s Commute 5
for each Establish
alternative Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint
Importance Client Access 10
Alan’s
Commute
45 min 25 min 20 min 25 min 30 min Scores Office Services 3
Client Access 50% 80% 70% 85% 75%
Office Office Size 7
Services
A B C A C

Office Size 800 sq ft 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft Monthly Cost 8

Monthly Cost $1,850 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,750

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Establish Achievement Scores Calculate weighted scores for each Selecting an HRIS
alternative
Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint
Objectives Parkway Lombard Baranov Montana Pierpoint IS AS Total AS Total AS Total AS Total AS Total
Alan’s 45 min 25 min 20 min 25 min 30 min Alan’s 5 2 10 8 40 10 50 8 40 6 30
Commute
Commute 2 8 10 8 6
Client 10 3 30 8 80 5 50 10 100 6 60
50% 80% 70% 85% 75% Access
Client Access Office 3 10 30 7 21 3 9 10 30 3 9
3 8 5 10 6 Services

Office A B C A C Office Size 7 8 56 7 49 5 35 10 70 7 49

Services Monthly 8 5 40 8 64 10 80 3 24 7 56
10 7 3 10 3 Cost
800 sq ft 700 sq ft 500 sq ft 950 sq ft 700 sq ft Total Score 166 254 224 264 204
Office Size
8 7 5 10 7
$1,850 $1,700 $1,500 $1,900 $1,750
Monthly Cost
5 9 10 3 7

Decision Statement Must Objectives Want Objectives

• Regional EEO reporting • Able to implement in 6 months
“What is the best human resource • Producing management reports • Written in “C”
information system for our • Capturing & reporting salary & job history • OSHA reporting capability
company?” • “Turn-Around” Document capability
• Security

14
Evaluate alternatives against must Assign weights to want objectives Evaluate alternatives against want
criteria (importance scores) criteria (achievement scores)
Co. A Co. B Co C Co. D
Must Want Weight Co. “A” Score Co. “B” Score Co. “C” Score
Criteria Weights Objective
Objectives
GO/NOGO GO/NOGO GO/NOGO GO/NOGO 6 Mons. 10 Yes- 6 9 Yes - ? 8 Yes – 4 10
6 months to 10 to months months
EEO Yes – Go Yes - Go Yes - Go Yes - Go implement complete
Reports Written in 9 Yes – 9 Yes – 8 Yes- no 10
Written in “C” 9 “C” subs subs + subs req.
Mgmt Yes - Go Yes - Go Yes - Go No – No required req.
Reports Go OSHA reporting 8 OSHA 8 Yes -Most 10 Yes – 8 Yes - OK 9
Reporting flexible Minimum
Capture & Yes - Go Yes - Go Yes - Go Turn-around 5 Turn 5 Yes - 10 Yes - 8 Yes - OK 9
Report around Best minimum
document
History Security 3 Yes - 10 Must do 5 Limited 7
Security 3 Best ourselves security

Calculate total weighted scores

Coordinator requests response

Scoring Coordinator receives individual responses

Want
Objective
Weight Co. “A”
Score
Weighted
Score
Co. “B”
Score
Weighted
Score
Co. “C”
Score
Weighted
Score
Group
Coordinator determines:
6 Mons. to 10 9 90 8 80 10 100 Decisions: (a) Median response
complete Delphi (b) Range of middle 50% of answers
Written in 9 9 81 8 72 10 90
“C” Method Coordinator requests explanations
OSHA 8 10 80 8 64 9 72 Delphi from any expert whose estimate is
Reporting not in the middle 50%
Turn 5 10 50 8 40 9 45 Method
around
Coordinator sends to all experts:
Security 3 10 30 5 15 7 21 (a) Median response
(b) Range of middle 50%
Total 331 271 328 (c) Explanations

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 Delphi
Method: Flexible Iterative
Strengths

Allows time
Removes
to think Ensures
personal
before anonymity
influence
commitment

16
 Assumes
Delphi Method: Extreme experts will
Weaknesses sensitivity reform
judgments

Monetary Risk of
High rates of
payments may “specious”
attrition
bias results consensus

17
 The Rogue The Rogue
Division Division
Time consuming Case Case

Delphi See Delphi

Technique: schedule
Weighted
Scoring

No, now we need to look

at uncertainty & risk

Are we done yet?

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