Solutions to Supplementary Exercise (Probability)

1
N05/II/10 (AOM 8174)

(a)
( )
( )
( )
P
P
P
A B
A B
B

=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P P P P
0.4 0.3 0.64
0.06
A B A B A B = +
= +
=

( )
( )
( )
P
P
P
0.06
0.3
0.2
A B
A B
B

=
=
=


(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P P P P C D C D C D = +
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P P P P P
0.7 0.6 0.6
0.4 0.1
0.25
C D C D C D
x x
x
x
= +
= +
=
=


2 N09/I/7 (H1)

(i) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P P P P A B A B A B = +


1 2 17
3 5 30
1
6
= +
=

(ii)
( )
( )
( )
P
P
P
A B
A B
B

=

( )
1 5
6 2
5 1
P
12 3
A
=
= =

Hence A and B are not independent. (shown)
(iii) ( ) P A B =light blue +yellow +blue
( )
( )
( )
17 2
1
30 5
5
6
P A B P B

= +
= +
=


2 very useful formulas to remember:
conditional probability
( )
( )
( )
P
P
P
A B
A B
B

=
and ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P P P P A B A B A B = +
( ) ( ) ( ) P P P C D C D = only
when C and D are independent
Check for independence by
checking whether
( ) ( ) P P A B A =



3 N99/II/6

(a) (i) : K H The card taken is either a King or a Heart
( )
2 3 1 3 3 2 7
P
30 15
K H
+ + + + +
= =
(ii) : J H The card taken is not a J ack and not a Heart
( )
2 3 1 5 3 2 8
P
30 15
J H
+ + + + +
= =
(iii)
( )
( )
( )
n diamond
P diamond
n
K
K
K

=

1 1
2 3 1 3 9
= =
+ + +

(b) ( )
8
2
30
2
28
P both J acks 0.064
435
C
C
= = = (3 d.p.)
(c) ( )
9 13 8
3 3 3
30
3
P 3 Kings 3 Queens 3 J acks
C C C
C
+ +
=
84 286 56
0.105
4060
+ +
= = (3 d.p.)
4 N87/II/6


(i) P(A wins on 2
nd
draw) =P(RRR) +P(RGR)
3 2 1 3 5 2 3
8 7 6 8 7 6 28
= + =
(ii) P(A wins | wins on 2
nd
draw)
nd
nd nd
P( wins on 2 draw)
P( wins on 2 draw) P( wins on 2 draw)
A
A B
=
+

R
G
R
R
R
R
R
R
G
G
G
G
G
G
R
G
R
G
R
G
R
G
R
G
R
G
As 1
st

draw
As 2
nd

draw
Bs 1
st

draw
Bs 2
nd

draw







( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
P n
P
P n
A B A B
A B
B B

= =
if outcomes are equally likely
3 mutually exclusive cases
Drawing a tree diagram helps in
visualizing the information given.
Red box A wins
Orange box B wins
Green box neither wins after 2
draws and A draws red on 1
st
draw


( ) ( ) ( )
3
28
3
P RRGR P GRRR +P GRGR
28
3
28
3 3 2 5 1 5 3 2 1 5 3 4 2
28 8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5
3
1
28
3 30 30 120
2
28 1680
=
+ +
=
+ + +
= =
+ +
+


(iii) P(neither wins after 2 draws | A draws red on 1
st
draw)
=[P(RRGG) +P(RGGR) +P(RGGG)] / P(R)
3 2 5 4 3 5 4 2 3 5 4 3 3
/
8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 8
2 5 4 5 4 2 5 4 3
7 6 5
40 40 60
210
2
3
| |
= + +
|
\ .
+ +
=

+ +
=
=

5
N88/II/6

(a) P(all different)
10 9 8 7
10 10 10 10
=

63
0.504
125
= =
(b) P(exactly 3 different)
10 3
3 1
4
4!
2!
10
C C
=
54
0.432
125
= =
(c) P(have X or Y) =1 P(no X, no Y)
4
8
1
10
369
0.5904
625
| |
=
|
\ .
= =

P(n more cards needed) >0.99
1
1 9 1 9 9 1 9 1
0.99
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
n
| |
+ + + + >
|
\ .

May use probability method
Or P&C method:
Choose 3 cards from the 10
available, then amongst the 3,
choose 1 to be repeated, then
count the number of
arrangements possible.
Use complement as much
fewer cases this way


A
B
C
Y
W
Y
W
Y
W
0.25
0.35
0.4
0.2
0.3

0.8
0.7


1 9
1
10 10
0.99
9
1
10
9
1 0.99
10
9
0.01
10
9
ln ln0.01
10
ln0.01
43.7
ln0.9
n
n
n
n
n
| |
| |

|
|
|
\ .
\ .
>

| |
>
|
\ .
| |
<
|
\ .
<
> =

least 44 n =

6 [AJC Prelim 2008/H2 Q7]

(a)











(i)
( ) ( )
3!
P(at least 2 from B) P BBB' P BBB
2!
= +

2 3
0.35 (0.65)3 0.35
0.282
= +
=


(ii)
3
P(at least 1 is yellow) 1 P( none are yellow) 1 0.355 0.732 = = =

(iii)
( )
P at least 1 is yellow all from A

( )
3
1 P none are yellow all from A
=1 0.8 0.488
=
=








Good to write out the separate cases
to illustrate your thought process
When direct listing involves too many cases, it is
more advisable to use complement method when
the complement case is straightforward.
Note: 3 balls are picked randomly
(i.e. no order involved); But
P(BBB') suggests order and thus,
it is necessary to compensate
order by multiplying
3!
2!
(i.e. for
the case of 2 balls from B, the ball
NOT from B can be the 1
st
, 2
nd
or
3
rd
ball, 3 possibilities.)

Drawing a tree diagram helps in
organizing the information given
Found using the idea of reduced sample
space which is identified by the box-up
region in the tree diagram.
Identify G.P.
Remember to change inequality sign
when dividing by negative number


Alternatively,
( )
y w w y y w y y y
P at least 1 is yellow all from A
P(at least 1 yellow all from A)
=
P(all from A)
3P(A A A )+3P(A A A ) P(A A A )
=
P(AAA)

+


2 2 3
3
3x(0.25x0.2)(0.25x0.8) 3x(0.25x0.2) (0.25x0.8)+(0.25x0.2)
= 0.488
0.25
+
=


b)
( )
P(white balls that are faulty)
=P(ball is faulty | it is white )
P ball is faulty and white
=
P(ball is white )


0.1 0.25 0.8
1 0.355
0.0310

=

=


7
[CJC Prelim 2008/H1 Q7]

(a) P [the 3 guests are seated separately] =
12
5
! 9
x ! 6
3
7
=
P

(b)

P[Late] =0.4x0.05 +0.5x0.06 +0.1x0.01 =0.051



P[MRT | Late]
=(
P( )+P( ) (0.5x0.06) (0.1x0.01) 31
)
P( ) (0.4x0.05) (0.5x0.06) (0.1x0.01) 51
Bus Late Car Late
Late
+
= =
+ +



Note: P&C can be used to
determine probability
Alternative: 1-P[MRT | Late]
Direct listing of cases works, but it
can be very tedious at times!



P[Late for second time on last day]
=P[Late once during the first 4 days and late on the last day]
=
4
C
1
(0.051)(0.949)
3
(0.051) =0.00889


8 [HCI Prelim 2008/H2 Q9]

i)

P(player wins the grand prize) =P (WWW)
=
2 4 6
8 10 12
| || || |
| | |
\ .\ .\ .
=
1
20


ii)

P (player wins a consolation prize)
=P (BWW or WBW or WWB)
=
6 2 4 2 6 4 2 4 6
8 10 12 8 10 12 8 10 12
| || || | | || || | | || || |
+ +
| | | | | | | | |
\ .\ .\ . \ .\ .\ . \ .\ .\ .

=
3
20


iii)
P (player wins a consolation prize/first draw was white) =
P (player wins a consolation prize and 1st draw was white)
P (1st draw was white)
=
=
P (WWB or WBW)
P (W)
=
1
10
1
4
=
2
5




4
C
1
as J ohn can be
late on either day 1,
day 2, day 3 or day 4


Alternative:
We deal with the reduced sample space when the 1
st
draw is white
P (player wins a consolation prize)

=P (WB or BW) =
4 6 6 4
10 12 10 12
+ =
2
5


P (player wins at least 2 grand prizes in his 4 attempts)
=1 P (player did not win any grand prize) P (player wins only 1 grand prize)
=
4 3
19 1 19
1 4
20 20 20
| | | || |

| | |
\ . \ .\ .
=0.0140

Alternative:
Let random variable X be the number of grand prizes a player wins in his 4 attempts at the
game. Then
1
~ 4,
20
X B
| |
|
\ .
.
P (player wins at least 2 grand prizes in his 4 attempts)
=P ( 2) X
=1 P ( 1) X
=1 0.98598 =0.0140
9 [IJC Prelim 2008/IJC/JC2/H2 Q7]

i) ( ) P Y
(Ace,King,Queen,J ackdrawnfrom1stPack) (score from2ndPack<5)
(othersdrawnfrom1stPack) (total scoreon both dice<5)
16 12 36 6
52 36 52 36
17
78
P P
P P
=
+
= +
=


ii)

( ') ( ) ( ') ( ')
9 17 36 30
(1 )
13 78 52 36
35
39
P X Y P X P Y P X Y = +
= +
=



Use complement method as direct
listing has more cases

Taught under Binomial
Distribution, application of
probability
Good to list the cases
( ) ( ') 1 P Y P Y + =

Visualize with a Venn diagram
( '): X Y Light blue +red +yellow
X : Red +yellow
': Y Red +light blue
( '): X Y : Red


10
[JJC Prelim 2008/H2 Q7]

(i) P(game ends in a draw)
=P(A & B mouse) +P( A & B elephant)+P(A & B cat)
=0.3x0.2 +0.4x0.3 +0.3x0.5 =0.330

(ii) P(A wins the first game)
=P(A cat, B mouse) +P( A mouse, B elephant)+P(A elephant, B cat)
=0.3x0.3 +0.4x0.2 +0.3x05 =0.320

(iii) P(B wins 1
st
game1
st
game not a draw) =1 P(A wins) P(draw)
=1- 0.320 0.330 =0.350
P(1
st
game not a draw) =1 P(1
st
game ends in a draw)
=1 0.330=0.670
P( B wins 1
st
game, given that 1
st
game is not a draw)
=
0.350
0.522
0.670
=

(iv) P(B will win the contest)
=P(B wins 1
st
game)+P(B wins 2
nd
game, prior games draw)+
=P(B wins 1
st
game)+P(B wins 2
nd
game)P(1
st
game draw)+
=0.350 +(0.330)(0.350) +
2 3
(0.330) (0.350) (0.330) (0.350) ..... + +
=
0.350
0.522
1 0.330
=

11 [NYJC Prelim 2008/H2 Q6]

(i)
( )
1 1 1
P Mattew is 1st and Mary is 6th in the queue =
10 9 90
| |
=
|
\ .


8! 1
Or =
10! 90

(ii) P(either Alice is first or Mark is second (or both) in the queue)

( ) ( ) ( ) =P Alice first +P Mark second P Alice first and Mark Second
1 1 1
= +
10 10 90
17
=
90

(iii) P(there is only one girl chosen if five persons are chosen at random from this group)
5 5
1 4
10
5
C C 25
= =
C 252

(iv) P(all five girls are next to each other | at least four boys stand next to each other)
Good to list the cases.
Note: A & B are
independent of each other
Easier to use complement
method as complement
cases are calculated
P&C method
Probability method
P&C method
Infinite G.P. sum, apply S

formula.
Separate topics can appear together in
1 question
Apply ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B P A B = +


( )
( )
4
1
5 6
4 2
P 5 Girls together at least 4 boys together
=
P at least
!
5!
4 boys together
5! 5 C
=
C 4! C 6! 2! 5!
1
=
9

+





12 [NJC Prelim 2008/H2 Q13]

(a)

(i) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 1 1
( ) ( )
3 4 4
5
( )
9
P A B P A P B P A P B
P B P B
P B
= +
= +
=


( )
1 5 5
P x 0
4 9 36
A B = = Thus, A and B are not mutually exclusive.


(ii)
( )
1 5
x
P(( ) ( )) P( ) 5
4 9
P ( ) ( )
2
P( ) P( ) 24
3
A B A B A B
A B A B
A B A B

= = = =



(b) Let J and S be events to denote doing a J avanese and Swedish massage respectively.

0.6
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.4
S
J
0.6
0.3
J
J
S
S
J
J
J
J
S
S
S
S
Case 1: 4 boys
Case 2: 5 boys
5!: arranging 5 girls, 5!: arranging 5 boys
4
C
1:
Positioning the girls among the boys

4 ways to slot in
the girls
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = for
independent events A and
B
Since A B is a
subset of ( ) A B
A tree diagram is
useful for organizing
the information given


(i) P(J J J ) =(0.8)(0.6)(0.6) =0.288

(ii) P(J SS) +P(SJ S) +P(SSJ )
=(0.8)(0.4)(0.3) +(0.2)(0.7)(0.4) +(0.2)(0.3)(0.7) =0.194

(iii) P(J SSJ ) +P(SJ SJ ) +P(SSJ J )
=(0.8)(0.4)(0.3)(0.7) +(0.2)(0.7)(0.4)(0.7) +(0.2)(0.3)(0.7)(0.6)
=0.1316 =0.132 (3 s.f.)
13 [PJC Prelim 2008/H2 Q11]

(i) P(scoring exactly 5 points) ( ) ( ) P spinning 1, 1, 3 P spinning 1, 2, 2 = +

3 3 2 3! 3 2 2 3!
8 8 8 2! 8 8 8 2!
| || || || | | || || || |
= +
| | | | | | | |
\ .\ .\ .\ . \ .\ .\ .\ .


45
256
=
(ii) P(spins 2 at least once |scoring a total of less than 6 points)

spin "2" at least once and score less than 6 points
P
score less than 6 points
| |
=
|
\ .


( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
P spinning 1, 1, 2 +P spinning 1, 2, 2
P total 3 points P total 4 points P total 5 points
=
+ +


3 3 2 3! 3 2 2 3!
+
8 8 8 2! 8 8 8 2!
3 3 3 3 3 2 3! 45
8 8 8 8 8 8 2! 256
| || || || | | || || || |
| | | | | | | |
\ .\ .\ .\ . \ .\ .\ .\ .
=
| || || | | || || || |
+ +
| | | | | | |
\ .\ .\ . \ .\ .\ .\ .


27 9
+
256 128
27 27 45
512 256 256
=
+ +


10
19
= (or 0.526 to 3.s.f.)
14 [RJC Prelim 2008/H2 Q10]

Given P(win)
1
2
= and P(defeat)
1
6
=
1
P(draw)
3
=
(i) P(1 draw and 1 defeat) =P(1 draw, 1 defeat, 2 wins)

2
1 1 1 4!
3 6 2 2!
| |
=
|
\ .


1
6
= (shown)

(ii) P(wins the first match and goes on to win exactly one other match)

1
2
= P(wins one other match and loses or draws in the other 2)

2
1 1 1 3! 3
2 2 2 2! 16
(
| |
= =
(
|
\ .
(


3!
2!
accounts for the permutations of
1, 1 ,3 and 1, 2, 2
List cases
4!
2!
accounts for the different
possible ordering of the draw,
defeat and wins



(iii) P(wins exactly one match | obtains four pts)


P(wins exactly one match and obtains four points)
P(obtains four points)
=


P(1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats)
P(1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats) P(4 draws)
=
+



2
2 4
1 1 1 4!
2 3 6 2!
1 1 1 4! 1
2 3 6 2! 3
| |

|
\ .
=
| | | |
+
| |
\ . \ .
1
9
18
1 1
11
18 81
= =
+




List cases