Ready To Eat Meals, A Revolution - Gerry Finley, Oscar Mayer UK

By Gerry Finley of Oscar Mayer, UK
the
agenda
where are we now?
the headlines
UK market review
the European focus
whats hot?
retail trends
taking a slice - the opportunities for meat
where are
we now?
Moving into
ready meals
Through to
meal solutions
The combined ready meals market
(chilled and frozen) was worth
1.74bn in 2010 up 5.5% on 2009.
Dine in for deals have been a
big driver the eat at home
restaurant experience.
Pressure from healthy eating
lobby for a reduction in fat and
salt levels.
headlines
Ready meal sector is forecast to
grow by 20.8% between 2011-2015
The majority of this will come from
the chilled sector as the frozen
sector continues to struggle
Initially 2012 will be a tough year and
the expectations of consumers to be
able to buy ready meals on
promotional offer is not sustainable.
NPD will continue to be driven by
supermarkets in chilled ready meals
as they adapt to increased
consumer sophistication.
headlines
the facts
& figures
What can the
number tell us?
UK market review
Ready Meals Market Growth forecasted to reach 3.1 billion by 2015
UK retail value sales of ready meals, and index of growth, 2005-15
Source: Mintel -Ready Chilled and Frozen Ready Meals May
2010
Mintel forecast Growth of 16% to 3.1 billion over the period from 2010 to 2015
UK market review
Total Chilled Ready Meals Full Price versus Promoted Contribution to Spend Growth
Source Kantar Worldpanel
Promoted sales are the key driver behind recent spend growth in ready meals
12
W/e
06
Sep
09
12
W/e
04
Oct
09
12
W/e
01
Nov
09
12
W/e
29
Nov
09
12
W/e
27
Dec
09
12
W/e
24
Jan
10
12
W/e
21
Feb
10
12
W/e
21
Mar
10
12
W/e
18
Apr
10
12
W/e
16
May
10
12
W/e
13
Jun
10
12
W/e
11
Jul
10
12
W/e
08
Aug
10
12
W/e
05
Sep
10
12
W/e
03
Oct
10
12
W/e
31
Oct
10
12
W/e
28
Nov
10
12
W/e
26
Dec
10
12
W/e
23
Jan
11
12
W/e
20
Feb
11
12
W/e
20
Mar
11
12
W/e
17
Apr
11
12
W/e
15
May
11
12
W/e
12
Jun
11
C
o
n
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

t
o

G
r
o
w
t
h

Promoted Full Price

UK market review
10 Evening Meals Ready Meals has the largest YOY increase
Source: Kantar Worldpanel:
In Home Evening Meals Consumption 12 m/e Feb 2011
1) Pasta
1,384 million occasions
+4.7% Year on Year
2) Ready Meals
1,060 million occasions
+5.6% Year on Year
3) Roast Dinners
973 million occasions
-2.7% Year on Year
4) Sausages
+1.6% Year on Year
5) Pies / Pasties
+0.4% Year on Year
6) Pizza
+5.5% Year on Year
7) Sandwiches
-1.4% Year on Year
8) Curry
+2.7% Year on Year
9) Fish & Chips
-0.1% Year on Year
10) Jacket Potato
+5.2% Year on Year
UK market review
Chilled Ready Meals- Volume share % 52 w/e June 2011 & 2010
Beef and Chicken remain the largest two segment for Chilled Ready Meals
Vegetarian ready meals are suitable for vegetarians but will be eaten by all
35.1
32.9
24.6
24.4
7.4
6.9
4.6
4
7.2
6.6
8.5
10.4
12
14.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
13-Jun-10 12-Jun-11
V
O
L
U
M
E

S
H
A
R
E

%
Vegetarian
Pork
Other Poultry
Mixed
Lamb
Fish
Chicken
Beef
Kg 244,560 (000s) Kg 267,433 (000s)
UK market review
Smaller ready meal categories such as Mexican and Chinese are in strong YOY growth. Pasta ready meals has
shown strong growth since 2007, whilst Britpop has declined.
Total Ready Meal/Prepared Dishes +2.1% growth vs year ago
Source Kantar: In Home/Lunchbox, 12 m/e Feb 2011 data % growth vs year ago
+5.6% YOY
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
12 m/e
Nov
2007
12 m/e
Feb
2008
12 m/e
May
2008
12 m/e
Aug
2008
12 m/e
Nov
2008
12 m/e
Feb
2009
12 m/e
May
2009
12 m/e
Aug
2009
12 m/e
Nov
2009
12 m/e
Feb
2010
12 m/e
May
2010
12 m/e
Aug
2010
12 m/e
Nov
2010
12 m/e
Feb
2011
Total Roast (Ready) Meals Total Britpop (Inc Fish Pie) Total Indian Ready Meals
Total Pasta Ready Meals Total Chinese Ready Meals Total Mexican Ready Meals
Total Vegetarian Ready Meals
-5% YOY
+4% YOY
-7.2% YOY
+8.9% YOY
+15.6% YOY
+10.4% YOY
UK market review
31.7
33.3
15.2
7.3
1.5
2.5
2.1
1.8
1.4
1.3
0.5
0.8
0.7
32.5
32
13.9
7.3
2.3
2.1
2
2
1.6
1.4
1
0.9
0.8
Italian
English
Indian
Chinese
French
Greek
Mexican
Spanish
Thai
Oriental
Other International
Other European
American
52 w/e 13 Jun 10 52 w/e 12 Jun 11
Italian and English Ready Meals have the largest spend share
Chilled Ready Meals Sector Spend Share 2011 vs 2010
UK market review
52 w/e Switching Spend to/from Chilled Ready Meals
Switching Spend (000s) to Chilled Ready Meals - year ending 12 Jun 2011
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Fresh & Frozen Meat
Wet/Smoked Fish
Chilled Main Meal Accomps
Frozen Fish
Fresh P/P Meat & Pastry
Burgers+Grills
Fresh & Frozen Poultry
Bacon
Frozen Pizzas
Sausages
Fresh Pizzas
All Others
Fresh Lse Meat & Pastry
Frozen Ready Meals
Fresh Processed Poultry
Net switching - Spend (000s)
Chilled Ready Meals benefit from switching from Red Meat, Wet Smoked Fish, Main Meal accompaniments, and other proteins
UK market review
Ready Meals Shopper Profiles Chilled / Frozen / Non Users
Source: Mintel -Ready Chilled and
Frozen Ready Meals May 2010
The usage of chilled ready meals
peaks among:
The usage of frozen ready
meals peaks among:
Non Users
35-44-year-olds DEs Women
Full-time employed People not working (excl. retired) 16-24 year olds, 55+
Households earning 50,000 or over
Households earning less than
15,500
Full students and retired
Households with children aged 5-15
Households with children, especially
aged 5-9
AB and C2 Socio-economic groups
M&S and Waitrose grocery shoppers Asda & discounter grocery shoppers Two person households
Chilled ready meals peaks for employed 35-44 year olds and households with children aged 5-15.
Frozen meals peaks within DEs grouping and households earning less than 15,500.
Source: Kantar In Home/Lunchbox, 12 m/e Nov 2010 data % meal
occasions
32
40 40
37
41
45
42
44 44
53
35
35
32
34
32
33
32 28
30
32
34
25
28 29
28
22
26
28
26
15
Ready Meals & Prepared
Dishes
Chilled Britpop (Inc Fish Pie) Chilled International Meals Fresh/Chill Indian Ready Meals Fresh/Chill Pasta Ready Meals Frozen Britpop (Inc Fish Pie) Frz International Ready Meals Frz Indian Ready Meals Frozen Pasta Ready Meals Total Roast (Ready) Meals
3+ people
present
2 people
present
1 person
present
UK market review
Ready Meals by number of people present
There is not much variation between type of meal. Roast meals are more likely to be a one person present occasion.
UK market review
The category now meets a broader range of consumer need states
Component cooking 233m
(+12m / +5%)
Family meal deals 60m
(+5m / +9%)
Everyday value 1,125m
(+85m / +7%)
Restaurant replacement
& Dining in 89m
(+26m / +40%)
Fresh and healthy 212m
(+30m / +16%)
the
european
focus
Around 1.9 billion was spent on the meals in the UK last year
double that of the French and six times more than in Spain.
And while demand for ready-made meals across Europe rose by 29%
between 1998 and 2002, in the UK it soared by 44%.
Sales of ready meals in top 5 EU states was 4.7 billion last year.
The UK accounted for 42% of all sales, France 21%, Germany 20%,
Italy 9% and Spain 7%.
Ethnic meals are the most prominentIndian, Chinese and other Asian
meals making up 40% of the chilled ready meal market across Europe.
Whilst convenience is the platform for growth , consumers are
looking for products that are natural, offer better quality of
ingredients and are nutritious.
whats
hot?
the step changes are:
Ultra fresh
Deconstructed meals
Starters and sharing
Restaurant replacement/Super premium
Uniqueness
New channels
Restaurant branding
the
outlook
retail
trends
eating out-driving innovation
Pizza Hut:
Free unlimited salad with every
main course
Red Market:
Late-night street food in East London
Carluccios:
Italian picnic hampers
McDonalds:
Company pledges
new commitment
to nutritional
awareness
Consuming
with Ethics
Wagamama:
Positive Eating + Positive Living
Leon:
Food should
taste good &
do you good
eating out:
Innovations & trends
McDonalds:
Calorie counts
on in-store
menus
Cuisine Tesco M&S Sainsburys Asda Morrisons Waitrose Total
Premium 142 51 88 76 37 75 469
Indian 35 36 59 46 58 50 290
Ready to Cook 28 58 45 47 49 60 287
Healthy - Diet 57 59 54 46 34 24 274
Traditional 34 87 34 40 40 16 251
Oriental 29 35 42 46 31 37 223
Fresh & Tasty 40 44 49 46 14 25 218
Italian 32 48 36 36 23 20 198
Vegetable 26 31 18 15 14 20 124
Kids 27 17 23 13 7 10 97
Vegetarian 27 13 8 30 4 9 91
American 26 11 12 19 14 6 88
Value 12 18 14 11 55
Emerging Cuisines 35 2 40
Party 6 11 17
Small Portions 5 4 9
European 4 4
Other Asian 1
Grand Total 550 490 488 485 347 360 2736
Battle for consumers
Ranging and choice
npd
innovation
Fair-trade ready meals
first on sale in May 2011
Gluten free products
Ready Meal Kits
Kents Kitchen
launched March 2011
Lakehouse Table
premium chilled ready meals that bridge the
gap for convenience before compromise;
they sacrifice shelf life for superior flavour
npd
innovation
Pastabox
by French manufacturer Sodebo
Eat In
by the Coop in the UK
Charlie Bighams
premium ready meals
Giovanni Rana
Pasta Ready Meals
where the pasta cooks in the
microwave instead of being reheated
Value of ready meals by type
measured in m RSP as at November 2010. Type% change 2009 to 2010
English 366.3 11.6
Italian 354.3 10.2
Indian 163.5 4.5
Chinese 83.0 10.0
Greek 24.8 3.7
Mexican 23.1 6.4
Spanish 21.9 48.9
French 21.2 72.5
Thai 17.9 48.4
Oriental 15.0 22.8
where is the growth coming from
Source: Kantar World Panel
taking
a slice
the opportunities
for meat
Quality and provenance
New and forgotten cuts
Developing health messages
Matching products
to flavour trends
High specification, quality
standards and innovation
supplied by weight, sold by
portion, who wins/loses
some examples
chicken breast
dimension and residual
shin of beef
weight, confirmation and butchery
lamb shank
weight and uniformity
meat
a quality focus
summary
Chilled ready meals still offers
significant growth potential
Premium, health, and innovation
are key drivers
Diversity in restaurant trends
are fuelling competitive
retail responses
Lifestyle trends and demographic
change will underpin demand
Economic recovery will reverse
some of the eating in trends

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By Gerry Finley of Oscar Mayer, UK

Promoted Full Price

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