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Daily Trading Stance Friday, November 06, 2009

Theme Comment
Strong rally in stocks yesterday, engulfing all price action on Wednesday in S&P500. The positive sentiment could
continue ahead of the US labor market data today, but the market is likely to be disappointed as the Unemployment
Rate in our opinion has a high likelihood of being released at 10% and the NFP could also disappoint. Look for the
Participation Rate and Weekly Hours as well.
Our stance: Don’t be long over the figures. Buy on eventual dips afterwards.
The RBA was decidedly bullish on the Australian economy o/n and AUDUSD is likely to test the previous highs within
next week.

Economic Data Releases


Country Time (GMT) Name Expectation Prior Comment
GE 11:00 Factory Orders MoM (SEP) 1.0% 1.4%
US 13:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (OCT) -175K -263K Saxo exp.: -205K
US 13:30 Unemployment Rate (OCT) 9.9% 9.8% Saxo exp.: 10.0%

FX Daily stance Comment


EURUSD 0/+ Prefer to buy dips to 1.4835-45 for a rebound through 1.49 targeting 1.4950-60. Stop below 1.48
USDJPY 0 Likely stuck in a 90.40-91.20 range
EURJPY 0 Expect to trade in a 134.25 – 135.35 range today
GBPUSD + Chance of further upside after y’day’s action. Break abv 1.6625 tgts 1.67, suppt 1.6540-50
AUDUSD + Buy break abv 0.9150, or any dip down to 0.9080, for 0.9220 then 0.9260

FX-Options Comment
EURUSD Vols heavily offered yesterday as large DNTs being protected in both directions.
Believe vols will sell off further and expect a tight range for the rest of the year.
EURCHF Vols slightly bid and RR trading further in favour of EURCHF.
Huge options related stops between 1.5000 and 1.5050.

Equities Daily stance Comment


DAX 0/+ Buy on dips towards 5412 targeting 5471. S/L below 5380.
FTSE 0/+ Buy on dips towards 5100 targeting 5138. S/L below 5075.
S&P500 0/+ Buy on dips towards 1051 targeting 1060. S/L below 1045.
Nasdaq100 0/+
DJIA 0/+

Commodities Daily Stance Comment


Gold 0/+ Buy on dips towards 1085 and target 1095. Stop below 1080.
Silver 0/+ Buy at the break of 17.62 and target 17.85. Stop below 17.50.
Oil (CLZ9) 0/- Sell on the break of 79 and target 77.50. Stop above 80.30.

Earnings Releases
Country Time (GMT) Name EPS exp. EPS prior Comment
(G(GMT)(G
MT)
Daily Trading Stance

Top 100 Global Stocks CDS Index


US Breakeven 10 Year 140
3

2,5
120

100
1,5

1
80

0,5

60
0

-0,5
40
27-jun 27-aug 27-okt 27-dec 27-feb 27-apr 27-jun 27-aug 27-okt
07-11-2008 07-01-2009 07-03-2009 07-05-2009 07-07-2009 07-09-2009
US Breakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index

USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the
inflation expectations. perceived default risk in a company. Now at 56.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7

30 6

25 5

20 4

15 3

10 2

5 1

0 0
mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 mar-09 jun-09 sep-09
okt-07 dec-07 feb-08 apr-08 jun-08 aug-08 okt-08 dec-08 feb-09 apr-09 jun-09 aug-09 okt-09

EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield

Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight
corporate debt markets.
CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
12 45

40
10
35

8 30

25
6
20

4 15

10

2
5

0
0
apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09
jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX
GDMA Hungarian - German Czech Republic - German Poland - German

The VIX Index is edging lower, now at 25.

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