Hunters Curve in

the 21
st
Century
ACEEE Hot Water Forum
Steven Buchberger
November 4, 2013
What is Hunters Curve?
2
Hunters Curve Predicts Peak Flow
Fixture Units
GPM
3
4
Life in 1940
Population = 2.3B Gas = $0.2/gal
5
Life in 2013
Population = 7.0B Gas = $4/gal
6
Hour
F
l
o
w

(
L
/
m
i
n
)
Friday, May 16
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
0
20
40
60
80
100
End User Demand (21 units)
7
t
T
q
One Fixture is a Bernoulli Trial
p = t/T =
Average duration of flow
Avg time btn consecutive uses
8
t
T
q
Three Key Parameters..
Fixture Characteristics
Human Behavior
p = t/T
9
Many Fixtures Exist
1
2 3 n k
1
2
3
10
Many Fixtures Exist
1
2 3 n k
1
2
3
11
Overlapping pulses
Design Problem
Assuming that there are n (identical ) fixtures
in a system, each operated once in T
seconds on the average, and that each
operation is of t seconds average duration,
what is the probability that k fixtures will be
found operating simultaneously at any
arbitrarily chosen instant of observation?
(Roy Hunter, 1940)
12
Many Fixtures are Binomial
1
2 3 n k
( ) ( )
} {
Pr 1
0,1,...,
k n k
exactly k busy fixtures n
p p
out of n total fixtures k
t
where p k n
T

( | |
=
| (
\ .
= =
13
Binomial Distribution Example
p=0.20; n=7
Binomial Distribution for Flush Tanks
Number of Busy Fixtures
p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
0 2 4 6 8
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
( ) ( ) } {
7
7
Pr 0.2 0.8 0,1,..., 7
k k
exactly k
k
busy fixtures k

( | |
= =
| (
\ .
14
p=0.20; n=7
Binomial Distribution for Flush Tanks
Number of Busy Fixtures
p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
0 2 4 6 8
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Design Condition is 99
th
Percentile
1% chance
15
99% chance
Design Flow, One Fixture Group
n
Fixture Group A
0 10 20 30 40
0
10
20
30
40
Q(0.99)
p=t/T=0.2
(gpm)
n=7; Q=16 gpm
( ) ( )( ) ( )
0.99
4
7 4 16
gpm
Q n m q fixtures gpm
fixture
| |
= = = =
|
\ .
16
Design Flows, Two Fixture Groups
n
Fixture Group A
Fixture Group B
Q(0.99)
0 10 20 30 40
0
10
20
30
40
p=t/T=0.20
p=t/T=0.05
(gpm)
17
Common Currency One Curve
Fixture Units
GPM
18
Hunters curve has withstood the test of time
and is the basis for plumbing codes around
the globe today.
Hunters curve went viral long before U-tube
arrived; not surprising, it is clever, convenient,
correct.
However, today Hunters curve is often faulted
for giving overly conservative design.why?
Hunters Track Record
19
[1] Simplicity is seductive. Hunters curve
has been applied to many situations for
which it was not intended.
[2] Times have changed. Water use fixtures
(hot and cold) have become much more
efficient since Hunters pioneering work.
Two Main Issues
20
Hunters Curve in 1940
Fixture Units
GPM
21
Hunters Curve in 2013
GPM LEED, NZE, HE fixtures = lower q
uncongested use = lower n, p
22
National effort in US to update Hunters
curve for peak water demands.
Driven by professional societies, not the
US Govt (not Natl Bureau Standards).
Prevailing sentiment is to simply revise the
fixture units in the code.
What would Roy Hunter do?
Old Habits Die Hard
23
IAPMO Sub-Task Group Orders
.work singularly to develop the
probability model to predict peak
residential demands based on the
number of plumbing fixtures of
different kinds installed in one
system.
24
Aquacraft Data Sets
2011 California Single Family Home Water Use
Efficiency Study (n=750)
2011 Albuquerque Retrofit Study
o Pre-retrofit (n=240)
o Post-retrofit (n=29)
2010 EPA Standard New Homes (n=302)
2010 EPA High Efficiency New Homes (n=25)
[1,346 homes .. >15,000 home days]
25
Data Base Queries
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
home unique ID
range of home IDs
Aquacraft data set(s)
age of home
retrofit status of home (Y/N)
geographic location of home
fixture performance (NLF, LF, ULF )
fixture group
26
Data Base Queries
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
home unique ID
range of home IDs
Aquacraft data set(s)
age of home
retrofit status of home (Y/N)
geographic location of home
fixture performance (NLF, LF, ULF )
fixture group
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
indoor water use
outdoor water use
weekday water use
weekend water use
AM or PM use
hot or cold water use *
per capita daily water use
total annual household water use
27
Data Base Queries
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
home unique ID
range of home IDs
Aquacraft data set(s)
age of home
retrofit status of home (Y/N)
geographic location of home
fixture performance (NLF, LF, ULF )
fixture group
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
indoor water use
outdoor water use
weekday water use
weekend water use
AM or PM use
hot or cold water use
per capita daily water use
total annual household water use
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
home square footage
yard square footage
number of bedrooms
number of bathrooms
number of occupants
age of occupants
water meter size
? _____________
28
29
Six Types of Residential Fixtures
[1] Toilets (3 efficiency levels)
[2] Showers
[3] Bathtubs
[4] Faucets (all sinks)
[5] Dishwasher (energy star ratings)
[6] Clothes Washer (energy star ratings)
30
Three Characteristics of Fixtures
[1] Pulse Intensity (q)
[2] Pulse Duration (t)
[3] Pulse Frequency (T)
t
q
T
Water Pulse Characteristics
Fixture
Group
No of
Fixtures
Typical Minimum
Water Pulse
Average (Nominal)
Water Pulse
Typical Maximum
Water Pulse
Standard Deviation
Water Pulse
Sample
Size
Terms and Units
Water Pulse
n q t v=qt q t v=qt q t v=qt q t v N q t v
FG 1 100 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.50 5.00 0.25 0.25 1.00 774
FG 2 100 1.50 3.50 5.25 3.00 8.00 24.00 3.50 10.00 35.00 0.50 1.50 6.00 191 gpm min gal
FG 4 50 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1040.3
Average (Nominal)
Water Pulse
q t v=qt
1.50 2.00 3.00
3.00 8.00 24.00
1.00 0.50 0.50
(gpm) (min) (gal)
Fixture
Group
FG 1
FG 2
FG 4
(example, N=50 homes)
31
Peak Flow (99
th
percentile)
Fixture
Group
FG 1, n=100
FG 2, n=100
FG 4, n=50
7 am 8 am
0.026 0.041
0.103 0.051
0.028 0.019
Probability of
Fixture Use
p=t/T
(example, N=50 homes)
Hour ending 7 am
Fixtures Flow (gpm)
mean var mean var
2.6 2.5 3.9 5.7
10.3 9.2 30.9 83.2
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
14.3 13.1 36.2 90.3
58.3 gpm Q(0.99)=
per Wistort 1994
32
Normal approximation (Wistort, 1994)
Computer simulation: SIMDEUM or PRPsym
Full enumeration of CDF (WDSA 2012)
Merge w/ Bldg Information Modeling (BIM)
Theres an app for that!
Tantalizing Possibilities
+ =
+ +
33
Steven.Buchberger@uc.edu
University of Cincinnati
Questions?
34
Phones to Faucets Analogy
Arrival Rates
Poisson Model
Erlang 1918
Time Between Uses
Binomial Model
Hunter 1940
35
Shutterstock.com
End User Examples - 1
Schools
Hospitals
36
Shutterstock.com
End User Examples - 2
Opera Houses
Bus/Rail Stations
37
Shutterstock.com
End User Examples 3
Hotels, CBD
Sports Stadiums
38