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SPEAKING FREELY
Middle East An 'Asia-Pacific' chimera
Central Asia By Andy Yee
World Economy
Asian Economy Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows
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Book Reviews interested in contributing.
Letters
Forum Since Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed building
an Asia-Pacific community in June last year, there has been
considerable debate among policymakers and academics on
reforming the regional architecture of East Asia. In the recently
concluded US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, however,
regional security arrangements received little attention.

If anything can be learned about the recent proliferation of

multilateral institutions, it is that they are very often driven by,
not drivers of, the political and economic realities of each region.
Sino-Russian baby
Around China's near abroad in East, Central and South Asia, comes of age
three regional communities have taken shape: the Association of (Jun 13, '09)

1. Goldman Sachs,
the lords of time
2. Ahmadinejad
faces his toughest
test
3. US's $1bn
Islamabad home is
its castle
4. China works pay
miracle
5. Gayatri Devi, the
last of the
maharanis
6. Clinton's India
visit a low-key
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Shanghai Cooperation
success
Organization (SCO) and the South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation (SAARC). These three regions have 7. A search for
different degrees of economic integration. Politically, three motives in Christian
respective axes differentiate them: US-China, China-Russia and attack
China-India. 8. Helmand's
'dagger' cuts three
Political relationships in the three axes show sharp contrast. ways
Take a look at military ties. China and Russia held joint military
9. Ten steps to
exercises under the name "Peace Mission" as recently as last
liquidate US bases
month, and also in 2007 and 2005. In contrast, the US and
China agreed only to resume high-level military exchanges. A 10. Faith-based
few months ago, their relations were shadowed by a maritime investing

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Asia Times Online :: Southeast Asia news and business from Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam 09-11-03 11:13 AM

incident in the South China Sea. In June this year, India was (24 hours to 11:59pm ET,
ramping up its military deployment along its border with China, Aug 4, 2009)
positioning two army divisions as well as squadrons of Su-30.

By observing patterns of regional architecture in these regions,

we can see that they are often manifestations of political and Superfusion
economic realities. Vividly written
and timely
East Asia reminder of the
East Asian regional architectures have developed significantly risk that binds US
over the past two decades, represented by a matrix of & China
organizations including ASEAN, the ASEAN+1s, ASEAN+3 and www.RiverTwice.com
the East Asia Summit (EAS).

These arrangements are very different from other regions.

Firstly, they emphasize informal dialogue and trust-building over
formal agreements ("the ASEAN way"). Secondly, they are all
ASEAN-driven, but have significant overlaps, representing
different views on the membership of an East Asian community.
Thirdly, they focus mainly on free trade, economic and
development issues. Recently, however, they are moving
towards wider regional issues and non-traditional security
threats.

Different interpretations exist as to China's goals of multilateral

diplomacy: whether this is a realpolitik effort to advance national
interest and erode US power in the region, or a genuine
commitment as a responsible stakeholder. While it is difficult to
identify empirical evidence, the above-mentioned regional
characteristics suggest that both may be occurring.

East Asian economies have well-developed trade and financial

relationships. The ASEAN-Japan free trade area (known as the
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) took effect in
December 2008. An ASEAN-China Free Trade Area will take
effect in 2010 for certain ASEAN countries, and be fully
developed in 2015. The ASEAN+3 countries boost a common
regional reserve pool known as the Chiang Mai Initiative
Multilateralization of US$120 billion. Meanwhile, Beijing often
speaks of China's peaceful rise (heping jueqi). It demonstrates
this by active participation in multilateral organizations.

However, China's neighbors do not want to see Sino-US rivalry

played out in their front yard. Shortly after the 2001 EP-3
surveillance plane incident, Singapore's Senior Minister Lee
Kuan Yew remarked: "We in Southeast Asia held our breath.
When it was over, we heaved a sigh of relief." They do not want
to be forced to choose between the US and China. An ASEAN-
led system is acceptable to China, the US and other East Asian
countries.

Yet, US alliances in Asia are still concerned about China's

dominance in ASEAN+3. In response, they pushed for the
creation of EAS, by adding India, Australia and New Zealand into
the existing ASEAN+3. In order not to appear obstructionist,
China has tried to downplay the importance of EAS rather than
refusing to be part of it. Before the first EAS summit in 2005,
China maintained that ASEAN+3, not the EAS, should be in the
driver's seat for the East Asia community-building exercise. In
the second EAS summit in 2007, Premier Wen Jiabao argued
that the EAS should more properly serve as a strategic platform
for the exchange of ideas and facilitation of cooperation.

As a hedge, China prefers informal, non-institutionalized

dialogues to reduce the risk of a coordinated effort to constrain
its action.

Central Asia
The SCO is the one regional organization that China has
founded and that it is proud of. In contrast to East Asia, it is
more institutionalized and has more rules and formal
agreements. In 2004, the Regional Anti-terrorism Structure was
established. In 2007, armed forces of all member states
participated in the joint Peace Mission anti-terrorism exercises.

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Evidently, the two regional powers, China and Russia, view

themselves as having aligned interests in the region. After the
Xinjiang incident on July 5, the People's Daily launched
commentaries accusing the US and the three evil forces of
terrorism, extremism and separatism as detrimental to Xinjiang
and the region.

Within 48 hours of the violence, Moscow issued a statement

strongly supportive of Beijing. On July 10, the SCO issued a
statement to "further deepen practical cooperation in the field of
fighting against terrorism, separatism, extremism and
transnational organized crime for the sake of safeguarding
regional security and stability".

In return, China is satisfied with Russia's effort to counter against

US influence in Central Asia through the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO). It also has a stake in supporting
Russia's effort to build an anti-terrorism center in Kyrgyzstan and
develop the CSTO Rapid Reaction Force in Central Asia.

The China-Russia leaders' meeting in June following the BRIC

summit indicated a high degree of political and foreign policy
coordination in future in Central Asia. Importantly, China
expressed its support of Russia over the situation in Caucasus.

For the moment, Sino-Russian convergence over regional

security in Central Asia results in their stepping up of political
efforts in regional cooperation. This enables the creation of a
simple and authoritative regional architecture, namely the SCO.

South Asia
SAARC, the equivalent of ASEAN in Southeast Asia, is a
dysfunctional organization that attracts little enthusiasm among
its members. It is crippled by the strategic rivalry between India
and Pakistan. In addition, a less dynamic trade regime means
that SAARC is not a priority to South Asian countries as ASEAN
is to Southeast Asian countries. According to the International
Monetary Fund, India's trade with SAARC amounted to 2.8% of
its total trade in 2006, while its trade with East Asia amounted to
24.9%.

China became an observer of SAARC in 2005, and Chinese

foreign ministers attended the SAARC leaders' summit in 2007
and 2008. China has a vital interest in cross-border integration
schemes with South Asia so as to develop eastern Tibet and
Yunnan province.

In 1999, the Yunnan provincial government hosted the

Conference on Regional Cooperation and Development with
India, Myanmar and Bangladesh in Kunming. They approved the
Kunming Initiative, which aimed to improve communications
between southwestern China and northeastern India by
developing transportation links. The initiative currently remains a
non-governmental one.

At present, China-SAARC cooperation is limited to diplomatic

exchanges, official seminars and trade fairs. While China has
sought a greater role in SAARC, Chinese assistant Foreign
Minister He Yafei said in 2007 that it was still too early for China
to apply for SAARC membership.

India is highly skeptical about China's South Asia policy,

including its strategic relationship with Pakistan, unresolved
border disputes, Chinese naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean
and China's influence over Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka to
balance India.

New Delhi and Beijing seem to be focusing their naval strategies

on each other. China is constructing naval stations and refueling
ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and India's rival Pakistan. India has
transformed a bay in the southern state of Karnataka into an
advanced naval installation.

During the SCO and BRIC summits on June 16 and 17, Beijing
avoided bringing their long-standing land border disputes to the

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forum. Merely over a week before, on June 8, New Delhi

announced it would deploy two additional army divisions and two
air force squadrons near its border with China.

Policy implications for an 'Asia-Pacific community'

We can briefly summarize China's relative experience of
multilateral diplomacy in the three regions. With East Asia, it is
strong economically but weak politically. With Central Asia, it is
weak economically but strong politically. With South Asia, it is
weak both economically and politically.

Now let's return to the fundamentals of East Asia as a region.

Firstly, it is a stable and dynamic economic regime. Secondly, it
is crowded with competing regional leaders: the US, China,
Japan and ASEAN. These fundamentals have a complex, non-
binding and economic-focused regional arrangement. It will
neither move towards the direction of greater institutionalization
and stronger political unity, like the SCO, nor will it deteriorate,
like the arguably dysfunctional SAARC.

With this background, we can understand the constraints facing

East Asia and foresee what a future regional framework will look
like. It will respect all countries in the region, big and small, as
equal partners. It will be open and inclusive to countries both
within and outside the region. It will have no clear regional
leader and there will be no willingness to cause too much
disruption to the status quo. It will also be a mix of formal and
informal arrangements. Therefore, it will be a flexible framework.

ASEAN, the current driver of the regional agenda acceptable to

all major powers, would act as the core platform, out of which
trans-regional and sub-regional channels and dialogues could be
established.

Given the dynamics of East Asia and the emergence of global

challenges like climate change, financial crisis and non-
traditional security threats, the scope for multilateral cooperation
is great. However, realizing the complex political realities, it is
impossible to create a brand new regional institution. The most
probable way would be adjustments and supplements over the
existing architecture. Ultimately a harmonious and effective
framework would be a product of the balance of various powers.

Andy Yee is a postgraduate student in Pacific Asian Studies at

the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.

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Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows

guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are
interested in contributing.

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