Maths - Construction of Fuzzy - Muhamediyeva Dilnoz Tulkunovna

www.tjprc.org editor@tjprc.
org
International Journal of Mathematics and Computer
Applications Research (IJMCAR)
ISSN(P): 2249-6955; ISSN(E): 2249-8060
Vol. 4, Issue 2, Apr 2014, 55-68
TJPRC Pvt. Ltd.

CONSTRUCTION OF FUZZY-CORRECT MODEL OF DECISION-MAKING TASKS
MUHAMEDIYEVA DILNOZ TULKUNOVNA
1
& PRIMOVA KHOLIDA ANARBAEVNA
2

1
Doctor of Technical Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Center of Development of
Software and Hardware Complexes under TUIT, Tashkent, Uzbkeistan
2
Candidate of Technical Sciences, Junior Researcher at the Center of Development of
Software and Hardware Complexes under TUIT, Tashkent, Uzbkeistan

ABSTRACT
Systematically analyzed the task of constructing of models of fuzzy assessment tasks and forecasting of weakly
formalized processes. It is shown that in the process of building such models appear incorrect tasks. Investigated compact
and noncompact classes of accuracy. Showed possibility of getting fuzzy and unclear sustainable solutions of incorrect
tasks during constructing models for risk assessment using a variety of memebership functions.
KEYWORDS: Fuzzy Set, Risk Assessment, Risk Forecasting, Decision-Making, Memebership Function, Incorrect Task
1. INTRODUCTION
The problem of constructing fuzzy models based on the findings of fuzzy rules in the conditions of uncertainty
arises in assessing the state of weakly formalized processes. The advantage of fuzzy logic consists in the possibility of the
use of expert knowledge about the object in the form of statements (predicate rules): if - inputs, then outputs.
However, it should be noted that the building of fuzzy models of this type often associated with the advent of so-called
fuzzy-incorrect tasks.
It should be particularly noted the work of A. N. Tikhonova, V. Ya. Arsenin and A. V. Yazenin in finding
approximate solutions of incorrect tasks at constructing formalized assessment models. However, the questions of solutions
of fuzzy incorrect tasks currently insufficiently studied.
2. STATEMENT OF THE TASK
Let the state of weakly formalized process is described by sampling fuzzy experimental data ) , (
r r
y X ,
M r , 1 = . Here ) ,..., , (
2 1 rn r r r
x x x X = - input n- dimensional fuzzy vector, that is set with its functions facilities,
and ( )
M r
y y y y ,..., ,
2 1
= - corresponding to it output vector.
Should build a fuzzy-correct model of decision making by assessing and forecasting the state of weakly
formalized process described set of fuzzy rules productions (linguistic utterances) similar to the following
) ,..., , , ( w
2 1 0
1 1
in i i i
f
i
k
p
n
j
ip
p
ij
i
j
b b b b f y w weight the ith a x
i
=
|
|
\
|
=
= =

, m i , 1 = . (1)
Here:
p
ij
a - linguistic term, which is estimated variable
i
j
x in line with the number p in the rules i;
56 Muhamediyeva Dilnoz Tulkunovna & Primova Kholida Anarbaevna

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.2949 Index Copernicus Value (ICV): 3.0
ip
w - weight coefficient for lines p in the rules i;
) ,..., , , (
2 1 0 in i i i
f
i
b b b b f y = - the output of the model (1), as described in the rule i.
Needed to find the values of unknown coefficients
ij
b ( m i , 1 = , n j , 1 = ) in the process of building a fuzzy
model (1), which provide the minimum residual:
( ) min
1
=

=
M
r
f
r r
y y
, (2)
where
f
r
y - the output of the model (1), corresponding to input vector
r
X .
3. CONSTRUCTION FUZZY MODEL OF DECISION TASKS BY ESTIMATION AND
FORECASTING OF THE STATE OF WEAKLY FORMALIZED PROCESS
Lets consider three types of studied fuzzy models (1) - outputs which can be represented as linear and nonlinear
dependencies, as well as in the form of fuzzy terms.
Fuzzy model, the output of which is represented as a linear dependence, is giving by Sugeno type fuzzy sets
model:
If ) ... (
1 1
2 2
1
1 1 in
i
n i
i
i
i
a x a x a x = = = (with the weight
1 i
w )
) ... (
2 2 1 1
i i i
k
in
i
n
k
i
i k
i
i
i
ik
w ),
then
. , 1 ,
) (
) (
...
) (
) (
) (
) (
1
1
1
2
1
2 2
2
1
1
1
1 1
1 0
m i
x
x x
b
x
x x
b
x
x x
b b y
q
j
ij
n
q
j
ij
n
ij
n
in
q
j
ij
q
j
ij ij
i
q
j
ij
q
j
ij ij
i i
f
i
= + + + + =
=
=
=
=
=
=

Here q the cardinality of the input variables
i
j
x in this model.
Fuzzy model, the output of which is represented in the form of the nonlinear dependence, specified as:
If ) ... (
1 1
2 2
1
1 1 in
i
n i
i
i
i
1 i
w )
) ... (
2 2 1 1
i i i
k
in
i
n
k
i
i k
i
i
i
ik
w ),
then
. , 1 ,
) (
) (
...
) (
) (
) (
) (
) (
) (
...
) (
) (
) (
) (
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2 2
2
2
1
1
1
1 1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2 2
2
1
1
1
1 1
1 0
m i
x
x x
b
x
x x
b
x
x x
b
x
x x
b
x
x x
b
x
x x
b b y
q
j
ij
n
q
j
ij
n
ij
n
n i q
j
ij
q
j
ij ij
in q
j
ij
q
j
ij ij
in
q
j
ij
n
q
j
ij
n
ij
n
in q
j
ij
q
j
ij ij
i q
j
ij
q
j
ij ij
i i
f
i
=
(
(
(
(
+ +
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
+
+ + + + + =
=
=
=
=
+
=
=
+
=
=
=
=
=
=

Construction of Fuzzy-Correct Model of Decision-Making Tasks 57

www.tjprc.org editor@tjprc.org
Fuzzy model, the output of which is represented in the form of fuzzy terms, set the fuzzy Mamadani type model:
If ) ... (
1 1
2 2
1
1 1 in
i
n i
i
i
i
1 i
w )
) ... (
2 2 1 1
i i i
k
in
i
n
k
i
i k
i
i
i
ik
w ),
then . , 1 , m i term y
i
f
i
= =
In these three types of models to
r
X input vector corresponds to the next result of fuzzy output:
=
=
=
m
i
r d
m
i
i r d
f
r
X
d X
y
i
i
1
1
) (
) (
or
=
z
z
r z
z
z
r z
f
r
dz X
zdz X
y
) (
) (
(3)
where
( ) ( ) ( )
+ + + + + + + +
+ + + +
=
+ +
; ,
,
, ... ...
, , ...
2
2
2
2 2
2
1 1 2 2 1 1 0
2 2 1 1 0
terms fuzzy of case term
dependence
nonlinear of case the in x b x b x b x b x b x b b
dependence linear of case the in x b x b x b b
d
i
r
n n i
r
in
r
in
r
n in
r
i
r
i i
r
n in
r
i
r
i i
i
-
Conclusion of the i-rule in discrete case;

( ) ( ) ( )
+ + + + + + + +
+ + + +
=
+ +
; ,
,
, ... ...
, , ...
2
2
2
2 2
2
1 1 2 2 1 1 0
2 2 1 1 0
terms fuzzy of case the in term
dependence
nonlinear of case the in x b x b x b x b x b x b b
dependence linear of case the in x b x b x b b
z
r
n n
r
n
r
n
r
n n
r r
r
n n
r r
-
Conclusion of i-rule in the smooth case;

) (
r d
X
i
- memebership function, corresponding to the values of the input vector
r
X of conclusion d
i
in the
discrete case,
) (
r z
X - memebership function, corresponding to the values of the input vector
r
X of conclusion z smooth
case.
We introduce the designation
=
m
i
r d
i r d
ir
X
d X
i
i
1
) (
) (
, ,
) (
) (

=
z
z
r z
r z
r
dz X
z X

with regard to which the expression (3) rewritten in the form:

( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
+ + + + +
+ + +
= =
=
=
+
=
=
terms
fuzzy of case the in term
dependence nonlinear of case the in x b x b x b b
dependence linear of case the in x b x b b
d y
m
i
i ir
m
i
r
n n i ir
r
in ir
r
n in ir i ir
m
i
r
n in ir
r
i ir i ir
m
i
i ir
f
r
1
1
2
2
2
1 1 0
1
1 1 0
1
,
, ... ...
, ...

In discrete case or
=
z
z
r
f
r
dz y

In smooth case
Lets introduce the following designation:
( )
T
f
M
f f f
y y y Y ,..., ,
2 1
= ;
( )
T
M
y y y Y ,..., ,
2 1
= ;
(
(
(

=
m M n M M n M m M M m M M
m n n m m
x x x x
x x x x
A
, , 1 , , , 1 1 , 1 , 1 1 , , 1 ,
, 1 , 1 1 , 1 , 1 , 1 1 , 1 1 , 1 1 , 1 , 1 1 , 1
,..., ..., , ,..., , ,...,
,..., ..., , . ,..., , ,...,

.
Taking into account these designations expression (2) rewrite the following matrix form:
min ) ( ) ( =
f T f
Y Y Y Y E . (4)
where B A Y
f
= .
The minimum value of squared residuals E is achieved at Y Y
f
= , that corresponds to the solution of the
equation
B A Y = . (5)
The construction of the sought fuzzy model is reduced to a finding of such a vector, which is the condition (4).
In proposed models each input value has its own function facilities ) , , ( c x with fuzzy terms (for example, L - low,
PI- pre-intermediate, I-intermediate, UI upper intermediate, A-advanced) used in equations.
During the development of the fuzzy model-based on risk assessment conclusions of fuzzy rules are often faced
with the problem of finding of approximate solutions of fuzzy incorrect tasks. It should be noted that the methods for
solving of incorrect tasks of decision support systems, designed with just a series of individual cases models
(for example, for models based on classical logic). However, a common approach to fuzzy incorrect tasks of this type do

not currently exist. To solve this task, you can use the method of finding the vicinity of the solution of incorrect tasks. With
this purpose we need some definitions and prove approval.
Definition 1: Primary information (about the study) is a fuzzy set with the function of toiletries (x), where xX.
Definition 2: Primary information is called a fuzzy-compact, if any level set, except the null will be compact in
the space of X, i.e.
( ] ( ) { }
= 0 1 , , : A
x x
compact domain in the space.
Approval 1: Primary information, the membership function of which is shown in the table. 1, is unclear-compact
primary information.
Table 1
Membership Function Proof of Fuzzy Compactness of Primary Information
1.
( )
x k
e x

=

( ] ( ) { } = < >

x x x x k : ) ( 0 , 1 , 1 , 0
{ } { }
ln : : ) ( = =

x k x e x x
x k
=
{ } ) ( :
ln
:
< =
)
`
x x
k
x x ,
k

ln
) ( =
2.
2
) (
x k
e x

=

( ] ( ) { } = >

x x x A k : ) ( , 0 , 1 , 0
{ } { }= = =

ln : : ) (
2
2
x k x e x x A
x k

=
)
`
=
)
`

k
x x
k
x x
ln
:
ln
:
2

{ } ) ( : < x x ,
k

ln
) ( =
3.
2
1
1
) (
x k
x
+
=
( ] ( ) { } = >

x x x k : ) ( , 1 , 1 , 0
)
`
+ =
+
=
1
1 :
1
1
: ) (
2
2
x k x
x k
x x =
=
)
`

=
)
`
k
x x
k
x x
1
:
1
:
2

{ } ) ( : < x x ,
=
1
) (

Here
=
=
n
i
i
x x
1
2
.
The statement is proved.

Search of solutions of the equations Y AB = is reduced to the problem of search of the fuzzy solution of this
equation.
Definition 3. Fuzzy solution to the equation is called the primary information provided by fuzzy set
A , with
the following properties:
given operator A and the original data B;
( ] ( ) { }

= B B
A
: A , 1 , 0 ;
( ) ( ) ( ) < < >
A B A
B
), ( sup , 0
B
A
.
Here
B
interval between sets A(B) and A
.
Definition 4. Fuzzy decision will be called sustainable if
( )
( )
lim

=
s up x
x X
0
and operator Y B A :
continuous in Z B ,
Approval 2. Fuzzy solution of equations (4) with the facilities of input variables listed in the table. 2, is
sustainable:
Table 2
Membership Function
Proof of Fuzzy Compactness of Primary
Information
1.
( )
Y AB k
e B

=
( ] 1 , 1 , 0 > k ,
( )
k

ln
= ,
( ) 0
ln
lim lim
1 1
= |
\
|
=

k

2.
2
) (
Y AB k
e B

=
( ] 0 , 1 , 0 > k ,
k

ln
) ( = ,
( ) 0
ln
lim lim
1 1
=
|
|
\
|
=

k

3.
2
1
1
) (
Y AB k
B
+
=
( ] 1 , 1 , 0 > k ,
=
1
) ( ,
( ) 0
1
lim lim
1 1
=
|
|
\
|

=

ka


4. ( )
( ) ( )
<

<
=
. ) (
1
, 0
,
1
) ( 0 , ) ( 1
, 0 ) (
1
, 1
,
1
) ( , 0
Y AB
a
a
Y AB Y AB a
Y AB
a
Y AB a
a
Y AB
B
k
k
k
k
k
k

( ]
k k
a
Y AB
a
1
) (
1
, 1 , 0 ,
( )
k
a

=
1
,
( ) 0
1
lim lim
1 1
=
|
|
\
|

=

k
a

5.
<

+
<
=
. ) ( , 0
, ) ( ,
) (
) ( , 1
, ) ( ,
) (
, ) ( , 0
) (
2
2 1
1 2
2
1 1
1 2
1 2
2
2
Y AB a
a Y AB a
a a
Y AB a
a Y AB a
a Y AB a
a a
Y AB a
a Y AB
z

( ]
2 2
) ( , 1 , 0 a Y AB a ,
) ( ) (
1 2 2
a a a = ,
Equal to
( ) ( ) 0 ) ( lim lim
1 2 2
1 1
= =

a a a
only at
1
0

Often a criterion characterizing the degree of precision of the solution of tasks and allocation of class correctness
of the incorrect task is not enough for good fuzzy solutions. To build a more adequate model is more convenient to
consider additional knowledge about the decision as some of the primary information.
Let the task is to find the solutions of integral Fredholm equations of the first kind
( ) ( ) ( )
= =
b
a
x u ds s z s x K Az

,
.
Space [ ] [ ] d c, C = U , ,
2
b a L Z = .
Construct a fuzzy solution in a standard way. As the membership function of the concept of the accuracy of the
model take
( ) ( )
u Az z
A
= exp .
As additional information, take a fuzzy set, which corresponds to the concept of small by norm in [ ] 1 , 0
1
2
W
function, i.e. small function and its derivative ( ) ( )
2
1
2
exp
W
B
z z = ,
where
( )
( )
ds
s
s z
s z z
W
(
(
\
|
+ =
1
0
2
2
1
2
.
It is easy to prove that this primary information fuzzy-compact.
Lets construct a fuzzy solution to this task.

( ) ( ) ( ) z z z
B A

= .
To obtain an ordinary resolution of the applicable information operator
( ) ( ) =
)
`
z sup arg = z :
Z z
z z I

( ) ( ) ( )
( )
(
(
|
|
\
|
|
\
|
+ + =

1
0
1
0
2
2
Z z
, inf arg = z : ds
s
s z
s z u ds s z s x K z

. (6)
Here, believing that

= =
(
m
i
x i
n
j
s j ij
d
c
b
a
h
h u h z a dx u ds s z s x K
1
2
1
2
) ( ) , (

,
1 ,..., 2 ) , ( = = n j s x K a
j i h ij
, , 1 2 / ) , ( = = j s x K a
j i h ij
j=n,
[ ]

n
j
s j
b
a
h z ds s z
1
2 2
) (
,
[ ]

n
j s
j j
n
j
s
s
j j
b
a
h
z z
h
h
z z
ds s z
1
2
1
1
2
2
1 ' 2
) ( ) (
) (
,
Write (6) in the form of
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
(
(
|
|
\
|
|
\
|
+ + =

1
0
1
0
2
2
Z z
, inf arg = z : ) ( ds
s
s z
s z u ds s z s x K z z I

=
=
(
(
+ +
(
= =

= =
= =
n
i
n
j
s j j
n
j
s j x i
n
j
s j ij
h z z h z h u h z a z z
1 1
2
1
1
2
2
1
Z z
/ ) ( inf arg :

[ ] [ {
[ ]
[ ]
[ ] [ ]
=
(
(
(
(

+ +
+ +
+
+ + + + + + + + + + +
+ +
+ + + + + + +
+ +
+ + + + + + +
+ + + + + + = =
+ +
2
1
2
1
2
2 3
2
1 2
2 2
2
2
1
2
2 2 1 1
2
2 2 1 1
2
2 2 2 2 22 1 21
2
1 1 1 2 12 1 11
Z z
) (
...
) (
....
) ( ) (
... ... ...
....... ..........
... ...
........ ..........
... ...
... ... inf arg :
s
n n
s
k k
s s
s k s s x n s n nn s k nk s n s n
x k s n kn s k kk s k s k
x s n n s k k s s
x s n n s k k s s
h
z z
h
z z
h
z z
h
z z
h z h z h z h u h z a h z a h z a h z a
h u h z a h z a h z a h z a
h u h z a h z a h z a h z a z z


{ [ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
. 0 ) (
2
2
... ...
....... ..........
... ...
........ ..........
... ... 2
... ... arg :
1
2
2 2 1 1
2
2 2 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 22 1 21
1 1 1 1 2 12 1 11
)
`
= +
+ + + + + + +
+ +
+ + + + + + +
+ +
+ + + + + + +
+ + + + + + =
+ k k
s
s k
x n s n nn s k nk s n s n
s x kk k s n kn s k kk s k s k
s x k s n n s k k s s
s x k s n n s k k s s
z z
h
h z
h h a u h z a h z a h z a h z a
h h a u h z a h z a h z a h z a
h h a u h z a h z a h z a h z a z z

From there
{ , arg : ) (
1
1
' 1 2
1
1
1
1
1 1
'

= = =
=
+
(
= =
m
i
s x i i
s
s
n
k
m
i
i i s x
h h u a
h
z z
z h z a a h h z z z I

, 1 ,..., 2 ,
2
1
'
1
1 1
1
'
= =
+
+
(

= =
+
=
n j h h u a
h
z z z
z h z a a h h
m
i
s x i ij
n
k s
j j j
j s k
m
i
ij ik s x

)
`
+
(

= =
=
.
2
1
'
1
1
1
' '
m
i
s x i in
n
k s
n n
n s k
m
i
in il s x
h h u a
h
z z
z h z a a h h

)
`
=
(
(
+
= =

= =
i
n
k
k ik
m
i
k jk
d z c z b z z z I
1 1
'
arg : ) (
.
Here:
jk ij
m
i
ik x
b a a h =
(
=1
,
1 2 1 2 2
2 2
z
h
z
h h
z
s
j
s s
j

(
+
+
.
Approval 3. Lets operator Y B A : continuous in Z B , then you can build a stable, fuzzy solution with
a function of the facilities specified in the Table. 3.
Table 3
Membership Function
Proof of Fuzzy Compactness of Primary
Information
1.
( )
Y AB k
e B

=
( ] < > B k 0 , 1 , 1 , 0 ,
( )
k

ln
= ,
You can build a fuzzy-sustainable solution in the form
( )
( ) AB O A

= ,
A , ( ) 0 lim
1
=


2.
2
) (
Y AB k
e B

=
( ] 1 , 1 , 0 > k ,
k

ln
) ( = ,
( )
( ) AB O A

= ,
A , ( ) 0 lim
1
=

3.
2
1
1
) (
Y AB k
B
+
=
( ] 1 , 1 , 0 > k ,
=
1
) ( ,
( )
( ) AB O A

= ,
A , ( ) 0 lim
1
=

4. ( )
( ) ( )
<

<
=
. ) (
1
, 0
,
1
) ( 0 , ) ( 1
, 0 ) (
1
, 1
,
1
) ( , 0
Y AB
a
a
Y AB Y AB a
Y AB
a
Y AB a
a
Y AB
z
k
k
k
k
k
k

( ] 0
1
, 1 , 0 B
a
k
,
,
1
0
k
a
B

( )
k
a

=
1
,
( )
( ) AB O A

= ,
A , ( ) 0 lim
1
=

5.
<

+
<
=
. ) ( , 0
, ) ( ,
) (
) ( , 1
, ) ( ,
) (
, ) ( , 0
) (
2
2 1
1 2
2
1 1
1 2
1 2
2
2
Y AB a
a Y AB a
a a
Y AB a
a Y AB a
a Y AB a
a a
Y AB a
a Y AB
z

( ]
1 2
, 1 , 0 a B a < ,
2 1
a B <
) ( ) (
1 2 2
a a a = ,
( )
( ) AB O A

= ,
A , ( ) 0 lim
1
=

The above mechanism of construction of the fuzzy-specific models can be used for solve the tasks of parametrical
identification, classification, clustering and forecasting [3].
4. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT
The approach has been tested by solving the task of evaluation and prediction using real data (for example, the
risk of shortfalls in crop).
The task of computing experiment consists from implementation and analysis of the correctness of the proposed
algorithm for solving the decision on assessment of the status of weakly formalized processes described by fuzzy - neural
network. The input data of the model were presented by unmanaged parameters:
1
x - weather conditions during sowing,
2
x - water supply,
3
x - weather conditions during the growing season,
4
x - weather conditions during harvesting.
Developed three types of models to assess the risk of shortfalls in crop based on fuzzy rules of the output.
The risk assessment model, the output of which is expressed by linear dependence.

If
1
1
x = and
1
2
x = and
1
3
x = and
1
4
x =C
Then
) (
) (
1 , 0
) (
) (
21 , 0
) (
) (
02 , 0
) (
) (
05 , 0 33 , 0
1
4
1
1
1
4
1
4
1
3
1
1
1
3
1
3
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
y
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
.
If
2
1
x = and
2
2
x = and
2
3
x = and
2
4
x =C
then
) (
) (
112 , 0
) (
) (
0393 , 0 257 , 0
2
4
1
1
2 2
4
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
y
=
=
=
=
=
.
If
3
1
x = and
3
2
x = and
3
3
x = and
3
4
x =C
Then
) (
) (
111 , 0
) (
) (
05 , 0
) (
) (
07 , 0
) (
) (
01 , 0 18 , 0
3
4
1
1
3
4
3
4
3
3
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
3
2
3
2
3
1
1
1
3
1
3
1
3
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
y
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
.
If
4
1
x = and
4
2
x = and
4
3
x = and
4
4
x =C
then
) (
) (
134 , 0
) (
) (
03 , 0
) (
) (
05 , 0
) (
) (
02 , 0 26 , 0
4
4
1
1
4
4
4
4
4
3
1
1
4
3
4
3
4
2
1
1
4
2
4
2
4
1
1
1
4
1
4
1
4
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
y
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
.
If x
5
1
= and
5
2
x = and
5
3
x = and
5
4
x =C
then
) (
) (
12 , 0
) (
) (
04 , 0
) (
) (
08 , 0
) (
) (
10 , 0 202 , 0
5
4
1
1
5
4
5
4
5
3
1
1
5
3
5
3
5
2
1
1
5
2
5
2
5
1
1
1
5
1
5
1
5
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
y
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
.
The risk assessment model, the output of which is expressed by nonlinear dependence.
If
1
1
x = and
1
2
x = and
1
3
x = and
1
4
x =
then
+ =
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
) (
) (
1 , 0
) (
) (
21 , 0
) (
) (
02 , 0
) (
) (
05 , 0 33 , 0
1
4
1
1
1
4
1
4
1
3
1
1
1
3
1
3
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
y


2
1
4
1
1
1
4
1
4
2
1
3
1
1
1
3
1
3
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
) (
) (
0011 , 0
) (
) (
007 , 0
) (
) (
004 , 0
) (
) (
003 , 0
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x

If
16
1
x = and
16
2
x = and
16
3
x = and
16
4
x =
then
+ =
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
) (
) (
09 , 0
) (
) (
003 , 0
) (
) (
005 , 0
) (
) (
007 , 0 184 , 0
16
4
1
1
16
4
16
4
16
3
1
1
16
3
16
3
16
2
1
1
16
2
16
2
16
1
1
1
16
1
16
1
16
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
y
2
16
4
1
1
16
4
16
4
2
16
3
1
1
16
3
16
3
2
16
2
1
1
16
2
16
2
2
1
1
1
16
1
16
1
) (
) (
0015 , 0
) (
) (
0005 , 0
) (
) (
0009 , 0
) (
) (
002 , 0
16
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
n
j
n
j
j j
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
j
If
27
1
x = and
27
2
x = and
27
3
x = and
27
4
x =
then
+ =
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
) (
) (
09 , 0
) (
) (
07 , 0
) (
) (
001 , 0
) (
) (
003 , 0 17 , 0
27
4
1
1
27
4
27
4
27
3
1
1
27
3
27
3
27
2
1
1
27
2
27
2
27
1
1
1
27
1
27
1
27
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
f
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
y

.
) (
) (
0024 , 0
) (
) (
0002 , 0
) (
) (
0005 , 0
) (
) (
01 , 0
2
27
4
1
1
27
4
27
4
2
27
3
1
1
27
3
27
3
2
27
2
1
1
27
2
27
2
2
1
1
1
27
1
27
1
27
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
j
n
j
n
j
j j
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x
x
x x

The risk assessment model, the output of which is expressed by fuzzy term.
If
1
1
x = and
1
2
x = and
1
3
x = and
1
4
x = with the weight 0.5
andand
1
1
x =C and
1
2
x = and
1
3
x = and
1
4
Then
f
y
1
=.
If
2
1
x = and
2
2
x = and
2
3
x = and
2
4
or
2
1
x = and
2
2
x = and
2
3
x = and
2
4
or
2
1
x = and
2
2
x = and
2
3
x = and
2
4

Then
f
y
2
=.
If
3
1
x = and
3
2
x = and
3
3
x = and
3
4
or
3
1
x = and
3
2
x = and
3
3
x = and
3
4
or
3
1
x = and
3
2
x = and
3
3
x = and
3
4
Then
f
y
3
=.
If
4
1
x = and
4
2
x = and
4
3
x = and
4
4
or
4
1
x = and
4
2
x = and
4
3
x = and
4
4
Then
f
y
4
=.
If
5
1
x = and
5
2
x = and
5
3
x = and
5
4
or
5
1
x = and
5
2
x = and
5
3
x = and
5
4
or
5
1
x = and
5
2
x = and
5
3
x = and
5
4
Then
f
y
5
=.
During construction models used the functions of the facilities of the following type [3]:
2
1
1
) (
|
|
\
|
+
=
j
k
j
k
j
i
j
i
k
c x
x
.
The results of the research produced a forecast evaluation of the risk of shortfalls in crop, based on the creation of
approximating models with the use of training and testing data on the risk (Figure 1)
Here FACT - the actual value of the risk;
Model1 risk, defined by fuzzy model 1;
Model2 risk, defined by fuzzy model 2;
Model3 risk, defined by fuzzy model 3.



Figure 1: Schedule of Risk Assessment for Training and Testing Data
CONCLUSIONS
The results showed high efficiency of the proposed algorithm for solving decision-making on forecasting,
classification and measurement of poorly formalized processes described by fuzzy models [5].
REFERENCES
1. Rotshteyn A.R. Intelligent identification technologies: fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, neural networks. Vinnisa:
UNIVERSUM Vinnisa. 1999. 320 p.
2. Khimmelblau D.M. Applied nonlinear programming. Moscow: Mir, 1975, 534 p.
3. Bekmuratov T.F., Muhamediyeva D.T. Methods and algorithms for synthesis of fuzzy-neural models of
decision-making. Publishing house Palmarium Academic Publishing. AV Akademikerverlag GmbH & Co. KG
Heinrich-Bcking-Str. 6-8, 66121 Saarbrucken, Germany. 2013. 164 p.
4. Bekmuratov T.F., Muhamediyeva D.T. Fuzzy approach to solving the task of forecasting risk // DAN
RUz. Tashkent, 2013, Vol.3. p. 14-17.
5. Muhamediyeva D.T., Mingikulov Z.B. .., .. Program for the construction of
neural fuzzy model of identification // DGU 02316. The state Patent office. Agency for the legal protection of
computer programs and databases, ., 2011.
6. Muhamediyeva D.T. Solution of the tasks of multicriteria optimization in the presence of uncertainty nonstatic
nature // Actual problems of modern science. 2. -Moscow. 2013. -pp. 237-239.
7. Muhamediyeva D.T. Clustering algorithm of rules fuzzy inference systems // Natural and technical Sciences.
2. -Moscow. 2013. -pp. 248-252.

Maths - Construction of Fuzzy - Muhamediyeva Dilnoz Tulkunovna

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Maths - Construction of Fuzzy - Muhamediyeva Dilnoz Tulkunovna

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

www.tjprc.org editor@tjprc.

You might also like