Burma / Myanma: Transitioning to Twilight Zone Transitioning to a political and economic 'twilight zone' 'with a perpetual econ crisis, inherent structural instability, unresolved ethnic conflicts and intra-military feudalism'
Burma / Myanma: Transitioning to Twilight Zone Transitioning to a political and economic 'twilight zone' 'with a perpetual econ crisis, inherent structural instability, unresolved ethnic conflicts and intra-military feudalism'
Burma / Myanma: Transitioning to Twilight Zone Transitioning to a political and economic 'twilight zone' 'with a perpetual econ crisis, inherent structural instability, unresolved ethnic conflicts and intra-military feudalism'
Transitioning to Twilight Zone Transitioning to Twilight Zone
Zarni Kuala Lumpur 19 October 2010 fanon2005@gmail.com An observation that has survived the test of time 2 14 May 1990 San Francisco Chronicle (Reprint from NYTimes) The Fundamentals Total Population : 58 million On-flow of migrants: 3-4 million in SEA alone Refugees and IDPs: 0.6 million (Asias largest) POLITICS Asias Oldest Military Dictatorship since 1962, with the 2 nd largest army in Southeast Asia Regressive Feudal Model Kleptocratic in nature DOMESTIC INSTABILITY since March 1948 Armed Conflicts: All Major Ethnic groups including Myanma/Bamah, Karen, Karenni, Kachin, Shan, Mon, & Arakanese Political Resistance: students, monks, laborers, farmers, and intelligentsia , as well as the diasporas ECONOMY - GDP US$20 billion (Thailand $200 bn) STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY Agri 43% of GDP today (47% of GDP in 1938- 39) A classic Resource Curse - oil, gas, hydropower and mining (copper and nickel) sectors (FDI - China, Thailand, India, HK, S. Korea, France, USA, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Australia, etc.) US$ 8 billion 2010 Defense Expenditure :40-60%; Social 1-2% of GDP EDUCATION/SOCIAL/HEALTH Primary School Drop-out rate: 1/3 Life Expectancy : 63 (Cambodia 62) Infant Mortality: among the highest in the world Corruption: Bottom of Transparency I.s Index 3 Transition from What? To Where? From Direct Military Dictatorship with pre-colonial feudal characteristics To Constitutional Military Rule with a select mix of Feudalism and Crony-Capitalism Towards an economic and political Twilight Zone (with a perpetual econ crisis, inherent structural instability, unresolved ethnic conflicts and intra-military feuds over loots, turfs and power) 4 Regressive Constitutionalism Constitutional Monarchy 1) to curb the role, right and authority of the Monarch and Monarchy (Indirect) Military Rule with a Constitution or Constitutionalized Military Rule 1) to legalize the primary of the Armed Forces and its Commander-in-Chief over the rest of the society 2) to establish a military apartheid (where soldiers are more equal) 5 The State of the Union of Myanmar: Cancer in Its Advanced Stage Unending armed ethnic and political conflicts since independence in Jan 1948, and the near certainty of unraveling ceasefires Widespread Poverty Rape of the Environment and Depletion of Human Resources Militarized State with its Zero-Sum Political Design and the Resultant Structural Political Instability Rentier State (oil, autonomous and autocratic) and its Kleptocratic Economic Order Revival of feudal power relations (leadership and followership) Widespread Corruption (eating the kingdom/country) The collapsed public services (edu, health, social, etc.) The Absence of Rule of Law and Downward Accountability What is under the militarys control? 1) economic life of all families (as well as physical movements such as overnight visits) 2) religio-cultural organizations (monasteries, churches, etc.) 3) social and intellectual organizations (including funeral service organizations, movies, plays, songs, paintings, libraries, schools, and Internet cafes) 5) media organizations (print, broadcast, and Internet) 6) political parties (e.g., political parties) 7) the economy and commercial agents (Chambers of Commerce, cronies, etc) 8) professional societies 9) laborers and farmers 10) women, mothers and childrens organizations 11) ethnicity-based organizations 12) foreign organizations (in-country INGOs, UN agencies, etc). 7 Generals Pledge: We will hold elections. But we promise to shut down electoral politics by any means necessary, whenever we loose. 1960 the militarys Caretaker Government under Ne Win attempted to influence the election in favor of the pro-military party led by Kyaw Nyein and Ba Swe, U Nus rivals. The pro-military party defeated and the military lied low. 1962 the decisive military take-over, ending the electoral politics. The second coup . Jailed all prominent politicians, judges, and newspaper editors, including Prime Minister U Nu GAP between the last and first ever multiparty election: years May 1990 Elections. Jailed all prominent dissidents, including ASSK and her colleagues including former Chief of Staff Gen.Tin Oo and journalist Win Tin, as well as former PM U Nu BEFORE the election. Refused to transfer power OR work with the election-winners AFTER the election - November 2010. Upcoming election. Jailed over 2,100 dissidents, including ASSK. Tin Oo and Win Tin (83 and 81 respectively) not behind bars (having served 10 and 19 years respectively). NLD and other genuine opposition parties dissolved. 8 Institutions come and go (1962-88) Revolutionary Council the Burma Socialist Program Party the civilianized leadership (of ex-generals) a new Socialist Constitution the transformation of the military-based party to the mass-based party (Burma Socialist Program Party government) creation of post-election institutions (such as a Peoples Parliament, a Peoples Court, a Council of State, and a Council of Peoples Inspectors) 9 Class formation, expansion and reproduction is solid. 1). refeudalization of the countrys military class and political culture (e.g., eating the territories, labor, resources, etc.) 2). (paradoxically) removal of any cultural/traditional constraints on feudal rulers conduct (e.g., no more righteous rulership) (anti-Buddhist rulers = monk murderers and torturers) 3). creation of a crony capitalist economy via a pool of its own economic agents (better known as cronies) 4). class consolidation and reproduction of the ruling kleptocratic soldiering class through incentivization and military lineage 10 What are these people doing? 11 Burmese Consular Staff and Families Kowtowing before General/U Shwe Mann, Kunming, 2008 12 Monkey See Monkey Do: Reviving Feudalism in the Age of Burmas Emerging Crony Capitalism 13 Adding Insult to Injury: Nargis victims made to treat Than Shwe and His Entourage as if the latter were the Royals 14
Un-Official Translation of The Official Burmese Transcript of The Speech Delivered by Vice-Chief-of-Staff (Army) Brigadier General Aung Gyi, 4 July 1961.
Myanmar's Ethnic Cleansing of Rohingyas and The Indifference of Aung San Suu Kyi and Her Western Supporters: Feb 2006-Dated Confidential Dispatch From Bangladesh High Commission in Myanmar