1

TheScientificMethodandHypothesisTesting
Fortherecord
Thetermdata isplural.
Collectingthesedatarequiredconsiderablepersonal
expenditure.
Thescientificmethodisusedbecauseitisdefensible AND
repeatable.
Thescientificmethodisadefensibletechniquethathelps
tominimizeexternalinfluences.
Statisticalanalysesarerepeatable.
Thescientificmethodconsistsofhypotheses,models,laws,
andtheories.
Hypothesis apropositionorstatementwhosetruthorfalsity
iscapableofbeingtested.
Models ameansofsimplifyingrealitysothatrelationships
betweenvariablescanbemoreclearlystudied.
Laws universalstatementsofunrestrictedrange.
Theories acollectionoflawsthatgivesgreaterinsightthan
producedbyindividuallaws.
2
Statisticalproceduresforaddressingresearchquestions
involvesformulatingaconcisestatementofthehypothesisto
betested.
Thehypothesistobetestedisreferredtoasthenull
hypothesis (abbreviatedH
o
)becauseitisastatementofno
difference.
Hypothesistestingstartswiththeassumptionthatthenull
hypothesisistruethatthereis/arenodifference(s).
Alongwiththenullhypothesiswemustalsostateanalternate
hypothesis(abbreviatedH
a
).
Thealternatehypothesisisastatementthatadifference
exists.
Ifanullhypothesisisrejected,thenwetentatively acceptthe
alternatehypothesisandconcludethatthereisadifference.
Whyisthenullhypothesistheonethatistested?
Thinkaboutitthisway:weonlyhavetofindoneinstancein
whichthenullhypothesisisnottrue(false)inordertobeable
torejectit.
Conversely,wewouldhavetocontinuetotestthealternate
hypothesisinordertobeabletoacceptit.
Inotherwordswewouldhavetotestallpossibilitiessincethe
alternatehypothesiscanonlybeprovencorrectifall possible
testsareperformed.
Themoralofthestory:
Itiseasiertoproveanullhypothesisincorrectthantoprovean
alternatehypothesiscorrect.
3
ExampleHypotheses:
H
o
:Thereisnodifferenceineyecolorbetweenthetwo
groups.
H
a
:Thereisadifferenceineyecolorbetweenthetwo
groups.
IMPORTANT:
InALLcases,ifthecalculatedvalueofastatisticisGREATER
thanthecriticalvalue(fromthetable)thenreject H
o
and
acceptH
a
.
IfthecalculatedvalueisLESSthanthecriticalvaluethen
accept H
o
.
Whenastatisticaltestisperformedtherearetwodistinct,
butrelatedresults:
Teststatistic:thisisthevaluethatiscalculated.
Probability:thisistheprobabilityofhavingthatparticular
teststatisticgiventhecharacteristicsofthedataset.
Thesecharacteristicsarevaluessuchasthemean,standard
deviation,samplesize,etc
Whichcharacteristicsareimportantdependsonthespecific
test.
Theresultsofanystatisticaltest(e.g.onewhereyouare
testinganullhypothesis)mustbestatedinaconcisesummary
statement.Thisstatementshouldincludeasummaryofthe
findings,thetestthatwasperformed,thealphalevelused,
thestatisticalresults,andtheprobability.
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AlphaLevel()
ThealphalevelistheprobabilityofcommittingaTypeIerror.
Atruenullhypothesisthatisincorrectlyrejected.
Alsocalledthesignificance level.
Itisessentiallyafalsepositive.
Byconventionwetypicallyuse0.05or0.01(5%or1%)asour
alphalevel.
BetaLevel()
ThebetalevelistheprobabilityofcommittingaTypeIIerror.
Afalsenullhypothesiswefailtoreject.
Itisessentiallyafalsenegative.
Byconventionthisvalueisnotspecified.
Type1and2Errors
ATypeIerroracceptsanalternatehypothesiswhentheresults
canbeattributedtochance.
Soineffectwearestatingthatthereisadifferencewhen
noneactuallyexists.
ATypeIIerrorisonlyanerrorinthesensethatwefailto
correctlyrejectafalsenullhypothesis.
Itisnotanerrorinthesensethatanincorrectconclusionwas
drawnsincenoconclusionisdrawnwhenthenullhypothesis
isaccepted.Itisthelesseroftwoevils.
Alphalevelof0.05
An of0.05isequalto 1.96sdfromthemean.
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OneandTwotailedTests
Twotailedstatisticstestfordifferencebutnot direction.
Onetailedstatisticstestfordifferenceand direction.
Note
Note
Twotailedtesthavethecriticalregionsplitbetweenpositiveand
negativesidesofthedistribution.Onetailedtestsdonot.Thisis
reflectedinthetablevalues(largerfortwotailed,smallerfor
onetailed).
EarlierresearchsuggestedthattheaveragehousevalueinYork
waslowerthanthatinLancaster.
Datafortheaveragehousevalueforeachblockgroupin
downtownYorkandLancasterweregatheredfromthecensus.
Atwosamplettestwasperformedtodeterminewhether
housingvalueswerelowerinYorkthaninLancaster.
Sincewehaveapriori (prior)knowledgeofthedirectionofthe
difference(e.g.housingvaluesareless inYork)wewouldusea
onetailedtest.
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H
o
:HousingvaluesinYorkarenotsignificantlylessthanthose
inLancaster.
H
a
:HousingvaluesinYorkaresignificantlylessthanthosein
Lancaster.
Notehowthedirectionofthedifferenceisstatedinthe
hypotheses.
2 1
2 1 2
2
2
1
2
2 1

2 1
2 1
v v
SS SS
s
n
s
n
s
s where
s
X X
t
p
p p
X X
X X

ThetestwewilluseiscalledaTTest:
=0.05
n
1
=7 n
2
=6
df=(n
1
+n
2
2)=(7+6 2)=11
v
1
=7 1=6
v
2
=6 1=5
HousingValue($)
York Lancaster
25368 49465
37045 37500
47500 53055
26785 48125
41493 45000
32864 52946
26140
0
2
2
2 2 2 2 2
2 2
2 2 2 2 2
796 . 1 532 . 1 796 . 1
) ( 532 . 1
7 . 9004
47682 33885
7 . 9004 3 . 81084145 6 . 43660693 7 . 37423451
6
7 . 261964161
7
7 . 261964161
7 . 261964161
11
2881605779
5 6
2444393535 437212244
2444393535 ) 47682 52946 (
) 47682 45000 ( ) 47682 48125 ( ) 47682 53055 ( ) 47682 37500 ( ) 47682 49465 (
437212244 ) 33885 26140 ( ) 33885 32846 (
) 33885 41493 ( ) 33885 26785 ( ) 33885 47500 ( ) 33885 37045 ( ) 33885 25368 (
47682
6
52946 45000 48125 53055 37500 49465
33885
7
26140 32864 41493 26785 47500 37045 25368
2 1
H accept Since t
sign the ignore t
s
s
SS
SS
X
X
Critical
X X
p
Lancaster
York
Lancaster
York

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Thecalculatedtvalue(1.532)isthencomparedtothe
criticaltvalue(1.796).
IFitishigherthenweREJECTH
o
.
IFitislowerthenweACCEPTH
o
.
Thecriticalvaluesareeithertakenfromatableor
calculatedinSPSS.
t
Critical
=1.796 Since1.796>1.532weacceptH
o
.
Criticalvaluefromthetable.
Calculatedtvalue.
OurHIGHPOWERsummarystatementwouldthenbe:
ThehousingvaluesinYorkwerenotsignificantlylessthanthe
housingvaluesinLancaster(t
0.05,1.532
,0.10>p>0.05).
Sinceinthisclasswewill,byconvention,useanalphalevelof
0.05,ourhighpowersummarystatementcouldread:
ThehousingvaluesinYorkwerenotsignificantlylessthanthe
housingvaluesinLancaster(t
1.532
,0.10>p>0.05).
IncludethealphalevelinthesummarystatementONLYifitis
differentthan0.05.However,itmustbestatedsomewhere.
ThehousingvaluesinYorkwerenotsignificantlylessthanthe
housingvaluesinLancaster(t
1.532
,0.10>p>0.05).
Thisiscalledaprobabilityrange.Ifweareusingatableitis
rarethatourcalculatedvaluewillmatchthetablevalues
exactly.
Thebestwecandoisstatethatourcalculatedvaluefell
betweentwoprobabilitiesfromtable.
Howdowedeterminethis?
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1.532wouldfallabouthereon
thetableforadfof11atan
alphalevelof0.05.Soour
probabilityrangeisbetween
0.10and0.05.
Afewwordsondegreesoffreedom (calleddf orv)
Thinkofdegreesoffreedomastheminimumamount
ofinformationneededtobeabletodeterminethe
valueofALLoftheobservations.
Forexample,ifweknowthevalueofn1observations
ANDthemean,wecancalculatethelastobservation
value.
Data
5
7
3
6
?
5
5

x
n
4 ) 6 3 7 5 ( 25
25 5 5 5
5

i
i
x
x
Everytimeastatisticaltestisperformed,youneedto
includethefollowing:
1. Astatementofthealphalevel.
2. Nullandalternatehypotheses.
3. Ahighpowersummarystatementthatcontains:
Thetestperformed.
Thecalculatedteststatistic.
Theexactprobability(SPSS)orprobabilityrange
(Table).
DevelopingHypothesesBasedonMaps
Mapscanbeusedfor:
Delineatinggroups
Locatingobservations
Determiningmeasurements
Measurementscanbe(butarenotlimitedto):
Elevation
Azimuth
Aspect
Distance
Proximity
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Developnullandalternatehypothesesbasedthefollowingmaps.
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Oftenourhypothesesarenotconcernedwithdifferencesbetween
oramonggroups.
Forexample,anassociationbetweenameasuredvariableand
ameasuredlandscapeornaturalcharacteristic.
e.g.Decreasingtemperaturewithincreasingaltitude.
Insuchcases,ournullandalternatehypothesesmightbe:
H
o
:Therenoinverseassociationbetweentemperatureandaltitude.
H
a
:Thereisaninverseassociationbetweentemperatureandaltitude.
ormoresimply:
H
o
:Therenoassociationbetweentemperatureandaltitude.