Report 2report 2

ISSN 0252-1075
Contribution from IITM

Research Report No. RR-124

Determination of Onset and Withdrawal Dates of

Summer Monsoon across India using
NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis

Nityanand Singh
and
Ashwini A. Ranade

JANUARY 2010

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan Pune - 411 008
Maharashtra, India

E-mail : lip@tropmet.res.in Fax : 91-020-25893825
Web : http://www.tropmet.res.in Telephone : 91-020-25904200
CONTENTS

Abstract

1. Introduction 1

2. Data used 5

3. Objective criteria for determination of yearly onset and withdrawal dates 5
3.1. Definition 6
3.1. Local hydrometeorological index (LHMI) 6
3.2. General and regional atmospheric circulation intensity index (GARACII) 7
4. Results 10
4.1. Onset dates 10
4.2. Withdrawal dates 12
4.3. The onset and withdrawal over the subregions 13

5. Limitations 21

6. Summary and conclusion 22

Acknowledgements 22

References 23

Annexure I 25

Tables 26

Figures 58

Abbreviation/Acronym used in this research report

AAMCZ Asia-Australia monsoon convergence zone
ASM Asian summer monsoon
CACSP central Australia-central South Pacific
CAS Central Arabian Sea
CC Correlation coefficient
CME central Middle East
DMI Dynamic monsoon index
EWPO Equatorial western Pacific Ocean
GAC General Atmospheric Circulation
GR Golden Ratio
GARACI General and regional atmospheric circulation intensity
GARACII General and regional atmospheric circulation intensity index
HOWI Hydrological onset and withdrawal index
IGPs Indo-Gangetic Plains
IMD India Meteorological Department
IMMC Indonesia-Malaysia maritime continent
ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
KJNWNP Korea-Japan-northwest North Pacific
LHMC Local hydrometeorological condition
LHMI Local Hydrometeorological Index
MCICP Myanmar-central Indo-China peninsula
ME Moderately early
ML Moderately late
MSLP Mean Sea Level Pressure
N Normal
NNWI northern northwest India
NLM northern limit of monsoon
OD Objectively determined
OLR Outgoing Longwave Radiation
P Precipitation
PW Precipitable water
RSMC Regional Satellite Meteorology Centre
SC Somali Coast
SA South Asia
SCSSM South China Sea summer monsoon
SR Subregion
TCC Total cloud cover
THIKHIHILs Tibet-Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush highlands
VE Very early
VL Very late
VIMT Vertically integrated moisture transport
Determination of Onset and Withdrawal Dates of
Summer Monsoon across India using
NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis

Nityanand Singh and Ashwini A. Ranade
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

ABSTRACT

Following a unified approach, an objective criterion has been developed for the
determination of yearwise onset and withdrawal dates of the summer monsoon over the 19
subregions across India. In total 14 meteorological parameters are considered in the development
of the objective criteria, two of which represent heating over south Asia-Middle East sector and
Tibet-Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush Highlands (THIKHIHILS), two intensity of the general
atmospheric circulation (GAC) over eastern hemisphere, three intensity of regional circulations
and seven local hydro-meteorological conditions. The period of study is 1951-2007. The results
are excellent to very good for the peninsula where relationship of monsoon activities with
circulation parameters can be visualized relatively easily, and satisfactory for the remaining parts.
Rainfall activities at the time of onset over different subregions are different. They are
categorized as abrupt, gradual and feeble. An arbitrary definition for the categories is as: if more
than 40% of the 30-day rainfall at the time of onset occurs in the last 5 days (including onset
date), the onset is regarded as abrupt, between 40% and 25% as gradual and less than 35% as
feeble. For the whole country, the frequency of the abrupt, gradual and feeble onset is ~42%,
~22% and ~36% respectively. The error is least in the determination of normal and moderately
early-late onset dates (~5 days) and large that of very early-late onset (7.1-7.8 days), and least
error in abrupt onset (4.5 days) and large in gradual (6.3 days) and feeble (7.4 days).
Rainfall activities at the time of withdrawal can be also categorized as abrupt, gradual and
feeble. Similar to onset date an arbitrary definition for the categories is as: if more than 40% of
the 30-day rainfall at the time of withdrawal occurs in the first 5 days (including onset date), the
withdrawal is regarded as abrupt, between 40% and 25% as gradual and less than 35% as feeble.
For the whole country, the frequency of abrupt, gradual and feeble withdrawal is ~30%, ~15%
and ~55% respectively. For determining the normal and moderately early-late withdrawal dates
the error is least (5.6-7.1 days) and large for very early-late withdrawals (8.9-9.6 days). Further,
the error is least for abrupt withdrawal (6.7 days) and large for gradual and feeble withdrawal
dates (7.3-7.8 days). Information related to withdrawal date is not very reliable but is given here
as an appraisal to the researchers interested to take up the problem in the future.
In general, the objective determination is best when the occurrence of the onset-
withdrawal is abrupt and worst when feeble. Limitations of the objective approach for the
determination of onset and withdrawal dates of the Indian summer monsoon are indicated.
1
1. Introduction

During boreal (northern hemisphere) summer, cool dry southeast trades of the Indian and
Pacific Oceans cross the equator and become warm moist wind system which produces frequent
rains/rainspells over the Asia-Pacific region (Eq.-45N; 40-170E) is popularly known as the
summer monsoon. The Tibet-Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush highlands (THIKHIHILS), in the
middle of the eastern hemisphere with contiguous landmass on the west and north and water
bodies on the east and south, act as elevated heat source during boreal summer. In response to
deep tropospheric heating, an inward intense pressure gradient in the lower layers and outward
pressure gradient in the upper troposphere develop in and around the THIKHIHILS facilitating
unusual lower level convergence, upper level divergence, air-sea interaction and tropical-
extratropical interaction. Intensity and geographical location of the different components of the
general atmospheric circulation (e.g. polar highs, sub polar lows, temperate westerlies,
subtropical highs, tropical easterlies and equatorial lows/convergence zone) show a large
seasonality following north-south annual migration of the Sun with a lag of 20-40 days. Even
different components show different seasonality over land and ocean and over lower and upper
troposphere. The equatorial lows (or Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone; the ITCZ) show only a
small spatial shift across the equator over the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans but a large shift
over continents of Africa, South America, Australia and Asia. Largest pole-ward stretching of the
ITCZ occurs in the marine environment between the Afro-Asian landmass on the west and the
Indo-Pacific water-body on the east. The maritime environment from equatorial Indian Ocean to
western/northwestern North Pacific and eastern flank of the Afro-Asian land mass experience
climatic conditions of the equator, the tropic, the sub-tropic and the temperate zones and their
interannual and intra-seasonal variability. During each boreal summer, the ITCZ sweeps this part
of the globe. The southeasterly trades after crossing the equator between the Somali Coast and
the Indonesia-Malaysia maritime continents (popularly as the monsoon winds/currents) blow
from southerly, southwesterly, westerly and even easterly directions in the different areas. The
monsoon winds are charged with moisture while blowing over equatorial and tropical Indian and
Pacific Oceans. Different types of rain-producing weather systems such as circular systems (low-
pressure area, cyclone, depression etc.), line systems (trough, convergence zone, squall line etc.)
and wave disturbances (easterly and westerly waves) develop in the monsoon flows due to
following factors:
1. net radiation over the Tibetan-Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush highlands
(THIKHIHILS) and the surrounding Afro-Eurasian land mass;
2. the SST conditions of the Indian and Pacific Oceans;
3. the speed and depth with which northwesterlies and southwesterlies converge-merge
into the ITCZ over the central Arabian Sea and the combined flow approaches the
Indian landmass and further over the Bay of Bengal;
4. the speed and depth with which the westerlies/southwesterlies from the Arabian Sea, the
cross-equatorial flows from the Australian high and the easterlies from equatorial
Pacific meet and merge over the southern Bay of Bengal and the Indo-China peninsula;
5. branching of the combined flow over the head Bay of Bengal into easterlies blowing
over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) and southerlies blowing over the Indo-China and
eastern China;
6. convergence of the easterlies into heat low over the central Middle East and the
southerlies into the Asian continental low;
7. rising motion from the two lows, divergence from the THIKHIHILS anticyclone,
outflows towards east and south and subsidence over the North and South Pacific
Oceans and Indian Ocean highs;
8. return-flows towards Asian summer monsoon regime; and
9. the orographic effect of the West Coast, the central highlands and the THIKHIHILS.
2
The warm, moist monsoon flow frequently produces rain-spells across India during its
period of occurrence, popularly known as monsoon season. The monsoon rains are of great
significance for natural and anthropogenic ecosystems of the country. Normally, the monsoon
onset occurs around 1 June over extreme south peninsula and advances over extreme northwest
India around 15 July. The withdrawal starts from northwest around 1 September and from
extreme south peninsula 15 October. However, the onset and withdrawal of the monsoon across
the country exhibit large interannual variation. Therefore, determining onset and withdrawal dates
using objective criteria, and understanding their variability is an important area of the monsoon
research.
Reliable determination of the onset and withdrawal dates of the summer monsoon across
India on real-time basis is important information for science, society and services. The higher
tropospheric (surface-200 hPa) temperature compared to the nearest equatorial region determines
the period and place of meridional (pole-ward) extension of the ITCZ. Though the Suns
declination remains almost invariant from one year to another, different phases of the seasonally
occurring summer monsoon circulation (onset, northward progression, establishment, southward
retreat and withdrawal) and associated rainfall show large variability due to complex internal
dynamics of the global climate system. From 21 March, the Suns declination increases
northward and the northward migration of belt of maximum temperature and convection follows
with a lag of 20 to 40 days. On 21 June, the Sun is over the Tropic of Cancer, thereafter the Sun
starts receding towards equator but the ITCZ continues to move northward. The monsoon
advances over northwest India and Pakistan due to positive radiation balance and continued
warming tendency of the northern hemisphere. During last pentad of July and third pentad of
August (P42-P45), warming of the northern hemisphere and most parameters representing
general and regional circulations attain their highest values. The seventy-three 5-day periods
from 1 January to 31 December refer to as 73 pentads or P1 through P73 in order (Annexure I).
Winter cooling of the atmosphere over south Asia begins during fourth pentad of August and
third pentad of September (P46-P51). The ITCZ starts receding from extreme
northwest India by pentad P52 and the process is complete from the extreme south peninsula by
the pentad P59.
With the annual north-south oscillation of the Sun, the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ) is stretched pole ward over continents of Australia and Asia and the maritime continents
between Indian and Pacific Oceans. During respective summer, the surface temperatures are
higher compared to the surrounding oceans-seas, and the low mean sea level pressure relatively
more intense and organized over the continents and the maritime continents. Outflows from the
surrounding subtropical highs converge into this low-pressure area and give rise to heavy rainfall
in and around the area. The position of the low-pressure area changes during the course of the
year. During January through March, it is located over northern Australia, Indonesia and
northwestern South Pacific, during April over Malaysia, during May over southern Myanmar-
South China Sea-Indo-China-Philippines region, during June over Myanmar-Northeast India-
Bangladesh, during July-September around the Tibetan-Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush
highlands (THIKHIHILS) and during October through December return to northern Australia. As
the geographical location of the low changes, the direction of the converging airflows into the
low changes giving rise to different nomenclature to the airflows (monsoon) in different
countries. Understanding meteorology of this low is critical to understand dynamics of the
monsoons and monsoon rainfall of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific Ocean-Australia region. The
3
low will be referred to as the Asia-Australia Monsoon Convergence Zone (AAMCZ). The
moist/humid maritime airflows converging or tending to converge into the AAMCZ are the
monsoon wind, the direction of the wind will be nearly opposite for the same position of the
AAMCZ when it is advancing northwestward to Asia than it is retreating to Australia. Outflows
from southern subtropical highs (Mascarene, Australia and South Pacific) and North Pacific High
that converge into the AAMCZ approach different countries in the Indo-Pacific region (south,
southeast and east Asia, northern Australia and the maritime continents between the two Oceans)
from different directions (east, south, southwest and west) hence the different names are given to
the moist monsoon winds. During the retreat of the AAMCZ, the outflows from the Siberian
High converge into the AAMCZ mostly from northeast and over some areas from northwest such
as Papua New Guinea, and the monsoon wind bears the respective name. During April when the
AAMCZ is over Malaysia, cross-equatorial flows occur, albeit feeble, along Somali Coast and
eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The convergence is close to and on both sides of the equator.
The cross-equatorial flows intensify during May when the AAMCZ is located between 10N and
20N latitudes over northern Andaman and Nicobar Islands-Philippines sector. At this time,
Andaman and Nicobar Islands experience monsoonal rainfall and extreme south Indian peninsula
and northeast India thunderstorm associated rainfall because of their location on the hotter
continent on the left bank of the monsoon flow.
For the first time in 1943, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) determined the
normal onset and withdrawal dates of the summer monsoon at 180 raingauge stations across
British India (present day India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka) from
characteristic monsoon rise/fall in pentad rainfall, and prepared charts showing normal onset
and withdrawal dates across the Indian subcontinent (IMD, 1943). For determining onset over
Kerala State (extreme southwest peninsula) by the operational meteorologists Ananthakrishnan et
al. (1967) suggested an objective criterion, beginning from 10 May if at least five out of the
seven stations report 24-hourly rainfall 1 mm or more for two consecutive days the forecaster
should declare on the second day that the monsoon has advanced over Kerala. Later
Ananthakrishnan and Soman (1988) suggested improved objective criterion for declaring onset
date over Kerala State, when rainfall on the day and mean rainfall in the following 5 days period
exceeded 10 mm. Presently, the IMD uses the following criteria (Joseph et al. (2006) for
declaring operationally the arrival of monsoon over Kerala (Pai and Rajeevan, 2009).
i. If after 10 May, 60% of the available 14 selected stations viz. Minicoy, Amini Divi,
Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochin, Trissur,
Kozhikode, Talassery, Cannur, Kasargode and Mangalore report rainfall of 2.5mm or
more for two consecutive days, the onset of monsoon over Kerala may be declared on the
second day, provided the following conditions are also met.
ii. Depth of westerlies should be maintained up to 600 hPa, in the box equator to latitude
10N and longitude 55-80E. The zonal wind speed over the area bounded by parallels
5N and 10N, and meridians 70E and 80E should be of the order of 15-20 knots at 925
hPa. The source of data can be RSMC New Delhi wind analysis/satellite derived winds.
iii. INSAT derived OLR value should be less than 200 Wm
-2
over the area bounded by
parallels 5 N and 10 N and meridians 70E and 75E.
Researchers across the world have attempted numerous quantitative approaches to
determine onset (sometimes withdrawal) of the summer monsoon over India and other countries
4
of Southeast Asia and East Asia. Taniguchi and Koike (2006) have used three variables
(vertically integrated water vapor, moisture transport and low-level wind) in an objective manner
to determine the Indian summer monsoon onset date. Zeng and Lu (2004) calculated Livios
Golden Ratio (GR) with daily normalized precipitation data globally available for 1 grid cells
and applied unified threshold to the GR (=0.618) to determine onset and retreat dates of the
different summer monsoons. Zhang et al (2004) proposed the following two conditions for the
monsoon onset over the tropical Asian region (south of 20N):
i. Establishment of a zonal vertical shear, with low-level (e.g. 850 hPa) westerlies and upper
level (e.g. 200 hPa) easterlies.
ii. A pentad means OLR < 240 W m
-2
.
Different evolutionary features of the Asian summer monsoon are considered in
developing the objective criteria, such as low-level flow and cyclonic vortices, low-level zonal
wind and stability, upper level flow and geopotential height, upper level meridional gradient of
temperature, upper level diabatic heating and upper level adiabatic warming. Flateau et al (2001)
have examined behavior of the following three parameters to study the problem of actual and
double/multiple monsoon onsets.
i. kinetic energy of the surface winds averaged over 5-20N, 40-110E;
ii. dynamic monsoon index (DMI) defined as the shear between 850 and 200-hPa zonal
winds, averaged over 5-20N and 40-110E; and
iii. monsoon circulation index (MH) based on the strength of the local Hadley Cell and
defined as the shear between 850- and 200-hPa meridional winds, averaged over 10-
30N and 70-110E.
Fasullo and Webster (2003) developed hydrological onset and withdrawal index (HOWI)
for the Indian monsoon from the vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT). Normalized
VIMT is greater than zero during monsoon period and less than zero during remaining period of
the year. They believe that the HOWI meets several requirements such as,
i. associated with the establishment of the large-scale processes that drive the monsoon
circulation;
ii. relatively insensitive to individual synoptic disturbances, bogus monsoon onsets, and
active-break transitions that occur within the monsoon season;
iii. based on fields that have been well observed over an extended period so that the method
can be employed over an extended climatology; and
iv. based on fields that experience large and rapid variability during the monsoon onset and
withdrawal.
Fleux and Stommel (1977) identified three types of onset of the southwest monsoon over
the Arabian Sea, single onsets, multiple onsets and gradual onsets. The dates of single onsets are
determined by the time when the wind has reached about one-half of its full monsoon strength.
The single onset rises to full strength in a little less than one week. The multiple onsets are
characterized by an early beginning of the southwest winds followed by a lull in the monsoon
with partial failure of the winds, and then resumption of full strength. The gradual onsets are
characterized by their early start, slow growth to full strength without a massive failure of the
wind and late attainment of full strength. A large number of indices with objective and subjective
criteria have been proposed to define the onset of the SCSSM (Wang et al. 2004). These indices
include precipitation or its proxies:
5
outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), upper-tropospheric water vapor brightness temperature,

high cloud amount, highly reflective cloud (Tanaka 1992; Chen et al. 1996; Yan 1997; Lin
and Lin 1997; Zhu et al. 2001);
low-level or surface winds (Yan 1997; Zhang et al. 2001), low-level relative vorticity
(Lu et al. 2000);
low-level meridional winds (Lu and Chan 1999);
equivalent potential temperature (Gao et al. 2001);
vertical zonal wind shear (Li and Wu 2000);
differential geopotential heights (He et al. 2001); or
combined measures of convection and low-level winds (Wang and Wu 1997; May 1997;
Xie et al. 1998; Liang et al. 1999; Kuch and Lin 2001).
Literature provides documentation of elaborate but qualitative description of the
general circulation of the atmosphere and the southwest monsoon circulation. There does not
seem to exist any unified objective criterion for declaring onset and withdrawal of the
southwest monsoon across the country. In the era of global warming, it a curiosity to
understand nature of variability of onset and withdrawal dates of the monsoon in different parts
the country.
The main motivation of the present study is to explore utilization of the circulation
parameters for determining different phases of onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon
over the 19 subregions across India (Figure 1; Singh and Ranade, 2009). The three main
objectives of the present study are:
1. To develop objective criteria for the determination of yearwise onset and withdrawal
dates over the subregions of India by considering parameters crucial to monsoon
circulation- intensity of the general atmospheric circulation over the eastern hemisphere
and regional circulations, and the local hydro-meteorological conditions;
2. To provide detailed description of the circulation features and hydrometeorologica
conditions at the time of onset and withdrawal of the monsoon over different subregions
across the country; and
3. To understand limitations of the objective criteria in determining onset and withdrawal
dates over different subregions of the country.

2. Data Used

The following two sets of data are utilized in the present study.
1. Daily rainfall of 1
o
grid cells over India for the period 1951-2003 is provided by the
India Metrological Department (IMD) (Rajeevan et. al., 2006); and
2. Daily meteorological data (MSLP, PW, TCC, OLR, and temperature, geopotential,
U and V of standard isobaric levels within troposphere) for 2.5
o
grid cells over the globe
for the period 1951-2007 is obtained from the NCEP/NCAR website
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP NCAR/.CDAS 1/.DAILY
(Kalnay et. al., 1996).
6
3. Objective Criteria for Determination of Yearly Onset and Withdrawal

Dates

3.1. Definition

With the start of boreal summer, the temperature of the troposphere over northern
hemisphere begins to rise and that over southern hemisphere to fall. Seasonal changes in
geographical location, and shape, size and intensity in different components of the general
atmospheric circulations (pole-to-pole and surface to tropopause) follow the global temperature
changes. Anomalous changes in the atmospheric conditions (highest surface air temperature,
lowest mean sea level pressure etc.) are seen over the maritime continents and boarder regions
between the Afro-Asian landmass on the west and the north and the Indo-Pacific Oceans on the
east and the south. Further, presence of the THIKKHIHILS in the subtropical Asia which act like
elevated heat source, and is a gainful factor in the occurrence of low-level convergence over the
central Middle East (CME; northwest India to Saudi Arabia) and upper level divergence over the
THIKHIHILS. In general, the intensity of the general and regional atmospheric circulations in
and around the Asian summer monsoon regime increases with a lag of 20 to 40 days. There are
three stages in the occurrence of the onset process: arrival of the ITCZ, onset of the moist
monsoon winds and start of the rains from the monsoon flow. Sometimes the three processes
occur in quick succession and sometimes wide apart. Generally, the specialists and the society
regard the start of the rains along extreme southwest peninsula (ESWP) as the onset of the
monsoon alike. Researchers have attempted to determine the onset date with ample rainfall along
the ESWP using regional and local meteorological parameters. On the other hand, the withdrawal
is a single stage phenomenon that is equator-ward return of the ITCZ. In the present study, the
onset and withdrawal of the monsoon would be interpreted as start and end of the monsoon rains
respectively.
The onset of the summer monsoon (specified local hydro-meteorological condition) over
the ESWP occurs when the intensity of the general and regional circulations exceeds the
specified limit. The monsoon advances northward as the intensity of the circulations increases.
The value of the parameters on climatological onset date is used to decide the limit of the local
hydro-meteorological condition (LHMC) and general and regional atmospheric circulation
intensity (GARACI) for yearwise determination of the onset date. The withdrawal of the
monsoon occurs when the combined intensity of local hydro-meteorological condition and the
general and the regional atmospheric circulations falls below the specified limit determined from
the value of different parameters on climatological withdrawal date. Normally, the withdrawal
begins from extreme northward India, and the date gradually progresses southwards. Therefore,
two indices have been developed, one would represent meteorological and hydrological (rainfall)
conditions over the area of interest, and another the intensity of the general and regional
atmospheric circulations.

3.2. Local Hydro-Meteorological Index (LHMI)

Computational steps for the development of local hydro-meteorological index (LHMI) for
determining onset and withdrawal dates for the particular subregion are as follows:
1. Calculate climatology of daily rainfall (P) based on data of the period 1951-2007;
2. Find 30 days total rainfall up to the normal onset date (30 days includes onset date) and
use it as rainfall threshold (P
30
);
3. Calculate yearwise 30-day running total rainfall and assign it against the 30
th
day;
4. Normalize the 30-day running total rainfall by dividing by the threshold value (P
30
);
7
5. Find out yearwise normalized value of 30-day running mean of other parameters by
repeating the steps 1 to 4;
6. Find out mean of normalized value of the selected parameters to get the local hydro-
meteorological index (LHMI); and
7. Determine tentative onset date of particular year when the LHMI equaled or exceeded
1.0, and the withdrawal date when it fell below the specified threshold.
The choice of 30-day window-width is to take into account lags of about 30 days of
maximum-minimum temperature (and convective activities) from maximum-minimum solar
radiation (Trewartha and Horn, 1980). The threshold for the seven parameters of the LHMI at the
time of onset and that at the time of withdrawal over the 19 subregions is given in Table 1. Table
2 gives hydro-meteorological parameters actually considered for the development of the LHMI
for determination of onset and withdrawal dates for the 19 subregions.

3.3. General and Regional Atmospheric Circulation Intensity Index (GARACII)

Another index has been developed as representative of combined intensity of the seven
circulation parameters out of the 10 parameters conformed to the objective criterion. The index
has been developed by linearly combining intensity of the different circulations.
1. Calculate daily climatology of the parameter;
2. Calculate 30-day running means of the climatological daily value of the parameter;
3. Normalize the running means by dividing them by the respective 30-day mean of the
onset phase (3 May-1 June; the 30-day period at the time of climatological onset over
Kerala); and
4. Calculate arithmetic mean of normalized value of the seven circulation parameters to get
the desired index, the GARACII; and
5. Find out the threshold of the GARACII at the time of onset over each of the 19
subregions.
The threshold for the seven parameters of the GARACII at the time of onset over extreme
southwest peninsula (SR1) is given in Table 3, and the threshold to GARACII at the time of
onset and withdrawal over the 19 subregions in Table 4. The onset date is determined when the
LHMI exceeded 1.0 and the GARACII the specified threshold. For withdrawal date, the
arithmetic mean of the LHMI and GARACHI is calculated and when the mean fell below the
specified threshold the first day of the 30-day period is taken as the withdrawal date.
Some features of the General Atmospheric Circulation (GAC) over eastern hemisphere
display strong seasonality closely paralleling the seasonality of the Asian summer monsoon. The
main motivation of the present study is to understand quantitative relationship between annual
cycle of the selected GAC parameters and the onset and the withdrawal dates of the summer
monsoon across India. The annual weather cycle over India has been divided into six
sub-periods- winter (P72-P16; 22 December-21 March), summer (P17-P30; 22 March-30 May),
onset (P31-P38; 31 May-9 July), establishment (P39-P51; 10 July-12 September) and withdrawal
(P52-P59; 13 September - 22 October) phases of the summer monsoon and post-monsoon
(P60-P71; 23 October - 21 December). A brief description of the annual cycle of general
circulation over eastern hemispheric and regional circulation parameters in relation to different
phases of the Indian summer monsoon is in order. For selected pentads (P31, P38, P45 and P55)
the climatology of some circulation parameters (surface air temperature, mean sea level pressure,
8
lower troposphere (850-500 hPa) temperature and thickness, upper troposphere (500-200 hPa)
temperature and thickness and geopotential height of 850 and 200 hPa isobaric levels) are shown
in Figures 2 to 9 in order. The streamlines for two layers of the troposphere-tropopause for eight
phases of the AAMCZ are given in Figures 10 to 17 in order to understand the changes in the
geographical location of the low-level convergence and upper level divergence. The two layers
are: surface layer (1000-850 hPa) and tropopause (200-100 hPa); and the eight phases of the
AAMCZ: P22-P25 (16 April-5 May; southeast trades enter into the northern hemisphere over
equatorial Indian Ocean), P29-P32 (25 May- 9 June; beginning of the onset phase summer
monsoonover Indian subcontinent), P33-P36 (10 June-29 June; middle of the northward
advance), P38-P41 (5 July-24 July; end of advance over northwest India and onset over
Pakistan), P48-P51 (24 August-12 September; established phase), P54-P57 (23 September-12
October; middle of withdrawal phase from India), P60-P63 (23 October-11 November; end of the
boreal monsoon), and P72-P2 (22 December-10 January; peak of Australian monsoon). The
following judgmental approach has been applied for the selection of the 10 circulation
parameters.
i. Understandably the parameter is a part of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulation
system i.e. it should represent any of the four components: a) heating over the Tibet-
Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush Highlands (THIKHIHILs), b) divergence from
subtropical anticyclone over the THIKHIHILs and upper tropospheric airflows over
eastern hemisphere, and c) lower tropospheric airflows over eastern hemisphere and
convergence into the heat-low over middle-east and the Asian Continental Low (ACL)
over the China-Mongolia area;
ii. Climatology of the intra-annual cycle of the parameter should show close parallelism with
the seasonality of the ASM, i.e. drastic change from winter to established phase of the
monsoon;
iii. It should show increase from P31 to P38, and decrease from P52 to P59; and
iv. It should represent meteorological conditions conducive for rainfall occurrences and the
rainfall amount over the particular subregion.
The Table 5 gives the climatology (1951-2007) of the 10 selected parameters for the six
sub-periods, Table 6 for the eight pentads of the onset and withdrawal phases of the Indian
summer monsoon. Geographical location of the parameters is shown in Figure 18. During the
summer monsoon period (P31-P38), the temperature of the lower (upper) troposphere over the
NH is higher by 7.8C (5.5C) compared to the SH (Table 7), and the thickness larger by 122.1m
(157.9m) (Table 11). Over the central Middle East (CME) the temperature (thickness) of the
lower troposphere is higher (larger) by 8.8C (131.3m) compared to the NH, and over the
THIKHIHILs the temperature (thickness) of the upper troposphere by 7.2C (200.4m).
During the onset over the extreme southwest peninsula (P31), the temperature of the
lower (upper) troposphere over the NH is higher by 5.9C (3.8C) compared to the SH (Table 8),
and the thickness larger by 92.7m (112.4m) (Table 11). Over the Middle East the temperature
(thickness) of the lower troposphere is higher (larger) by 8.1C (123.7m) compared to the NH,
and over the THIKHIHILs the temperature (thickness) of the upper troposphere by 5.4C
(150.1m). And during the onset over northern northwest India (P38), the temperature of the lower
(upper) troposphere over the NH is higher by 9.3C (6.8C) compared to the SH, and the
thickness larger by 145.7m (196.4m). Over the CME the temperature (thickness) of the lower
troposphere is higher (larger) by 9.0C (134.9m) compared to the NH, and over the THIKHIHILs
the temperature (thickness) of the upper troposphere by 7.8C (221.1m).
9
During the withdrawal from northern northwest India (P53), the temperature of the lower
(upper) troposphere over the NH is higher by 6.4C (4.6C) compared to the SH (Table 9), and
the thickness larger by 100.7m (135.3m) (Table 12). Over the CME the temperature (thickness)
of the lower troposphere is higher (larger) by 7.3C (106.3m) compared to the NH, and over the
THIKHIHILs the temperature (thickness) of the upper troposphere by 5.8C (166.0m). And
during the withdrawal from extreme south peninsula (P59), the temperature of the lower (upper)
troposphere over the NH is higher by 2.8C (1.8C) compared to the SH, and the thickness larger
by 44.1m (56.9m). Over the CME the temperature (thickness) of the lower troposphere is higher
(larger) by 5.5C (79.3m) compared to the NH, and over the THIKHIHILs the temperature
(thickness) of the upper troposphere by 3.3C (92.6m).
A description of seasonality in selected circulation parameters is in order: from winter
(P72-P16) to established phase of the summer monsoon (P39-P51), the thickness of lower
troposphere over Middle East (25-35N; 40-75E) increases from 4418.0m to 4416.8m and
upper troposphere thickness over the THIKHIHILs (25-45N; 40-100E) from 6317.0m to
6692.1m; the U200 over the Korea-Japan-northwest North Pacific (KJNWNP) (30-40N; 120-
160E) decreases from 61.8 m/s to 11.0 m/s; the U200 over the central Australia-central South
Pacific (CACSP) (20-30S; 120-180E) increases from 17.2 m/s to 43.7 m/s; the U850 over the
equatorial western Pacific Ocean (EWPO) (10S-10N; 150-180E) increases from -2.5 m/s to -
4.0 m/s; the V850 along the Somali Coast (SC) (5S-10N; 45-55E) changes from a weak
northerly (-2.0 m/s) to a strong southerly (7.9 m/s); the V850 over the Indonesia-Malaysia
maritime continent (IMMC) (5S-5N; 100-150E) from a weaker northerly (-1.6 m/s) to a weak
southerly (2.0 m/s); the U850 over the central Arabian Sea (CAS) (5-15N; 55-70E) changes
from a moderate easterly (-4.7 m/s) to a strong westerly (13.3 m/s); the V850 over the Myanmar
and central Indo-China peninsula (MCICP) (10-30N; 90-100E) changes from a weak
southerly (0.3 m/s) to a moderate southerly (2.8 m/s); and the Z200 over the South Asia (SA)
(25-35N; 50-100E) increases from 12008.7m to 12541.2m. Seasonality in seven of the 10
circulation parameters showed close parallelism with occurrence/non-occurrence of the summer
monsoon over India. These parameters are combined suitably to produce an index, which has
been used in determining the onset and withdrawal dates. Either the remaining three parameters
showed opposite behavior or first increase then decrease and/or again increase are ignored.

Onset phase The southeasterly trades after crossing the equator along Somali Coast approach as
southwesterly monsoon winds at the earliest over extreme south peninsula (SR1 & 2) during P31
and latest over northern northwest India (NNWI; SR15) during P38. From P31 to P38 the
changes in circulation, meteorological condition and rainfall are as: temperature of the lower
troposphere (1000-500 hPa thick layer) around the THIKHIHILs increases from 13.3C to
16.7C (0.5C/pentad) and the upper troposphere from -37.6C to -32.6C (0.8C/pentad);
thickness of lower troposphere over the CME increases from 4381.6m to 4429.1m (6.8m/pentad);
thickness of upper troposphere over the THIKHIHILs increases from 6574.5m to 6701.2m
(18.1m/pentad); the U200 over the KJNWNP sector decreases from 34.2m/s to 17.7m/s
(~2.4m/s/pentad); the U200 over the CACSP sector increases from 41.1m/s (P31) to 46.2m/s
(P34) and again decreases to 43.6m/s; the U850 over the EWPO remains about -4.4m/s; the
10
V850 along the SC increases from 5.5m/s to 8.1m/s (0.4m/s/pentad); the V850 over the IMMC
decreases from 1.1m/s to 1.8m/s (-0.7m/s/pentad); the U850 over the CAS increases from 8.3m/s
to 14.5m/s (0.9m/s/pentad); the V850 over the MCICP increases from 2.8m/s (P31) to 4.0m/s
(P35) and again decreases to 3.4m/s (P38); and the Z200 over the SA increases from 12404.2m to
12547.4m (20.4m/pentad).

Establishment phase Compared to the onset phase (P31-P38), during the establishment phase
(P39-P51) the temperature of the lower troposphere over the THIKHIHILs increases from 15.3C
to 16.1C and that of the upper troposphere from -34.2C to -32.2C. Notable changes in the
general and regional circulation parameters during these phases are: thickness of lower
troposphere over the CME increases by 7.2m and that of upper troposphere over the
THIKHIHILs by 36.2m, the V850 along the Somali Coast by 0.4m/s, the V850 over the IMMC
by 0.5m/s, the U850 over the CAS by 0.1m/s, and the Z200 over the SA by 48.5m; while the
U200 over the KJNWNP decreases by -16.3m/s, the U200 over central the CACSP by -1.1m/s,
the U850 over the EWPO by -0.5m/s, and the V850 over the MCICP by -0.8m/s.

Withdrawal phase Compared to the establishment phase (P39-P51) during the withdrawal phase
(P52-P59) the temperature of the lower troposphere decreases from 16.1C to 9.5C and that of
the upper troposphere from -32.2C to -38.9C. During withdrawal phase, the U200 over the
KJNWNP increases from 11.0m/s to 30.8m/s (19.8m/s). The other parameters show considerable
decrease- the thickness of lower troposphere over Middle East from 4416.8m to 4334.3m
(-82.5m), the thickness of upper troposphere over the THIKHIHILs from 6692.1m to 6544.7m
(-147.4m), the U200 over the CACSP from 43.7m/s to 38.3m/s (-5.4m/s), the U850 over the
EWPO from -4.0m/s to -3.4m/s (-0.6m/s), the V850 along the Somali Coast from 7.9m/s to
2.4m/s (-5.5m/s), the V850 over the IMMC from 2.0m/s to 1.3m/s (-0.7m/s), the U850 over the
CAS from 13.3m/s to 3.5m/s (-9.8m/s), the V850 over the MCICP from 2.8m/s to 1.7m/s
(-1.1m/s), and the Z200 over the South Asia from 12541.2m to 12370.0m (-171.2m).
During the entire period of summer monsoon activities temperature and thickness of the
lower and upper troposphere over the THIKHIHILs are higher-larger than that over the northern
hemisphere. The normal onset and withdrawal dates are across the country are shown in Figure
19.

4. Results

4.1. Onset Dates

Actual onset and withdrawal dates and those obtained after the application of the
objective criterion are shown in Figures 20 and 21 for the 19 subregions in order. The
correlation coefficient between actual and objectively determined onset dates is excellent along
West Coast (0.79-0.83) and peninsula (0.71-0.78); very good in central India and east coast
(0.49-0.60); and fairly good in northern and northwestern India (0.36-0.47). The West Coast
receives ample orographic rainfall in addition to heavy rainfall associated with tropical and
oceanic influences. Due to leeward effect though the intensity is low (2.6 to 5.7mm/day; Singh
and Ranade, 2009) over the peninsula, there are relatively frequent rainfall activities over the
area (7 to 11 wet spells per year). Over these areas, it is relatively easy to visualize relationship
between regional and general circulation parameters and the monsoon activities. Over northern
and northwestern parts, the monsoon flow is frequently affected by the extra-tropical
disturbances, thus the CC is weakest over the area. The parameters representing extra-tropical
influences are not considered in the present objective criteria.
11
A frequency distribution analysis shows that onset in 30.4% of years is normal (mean
), 14.8% moderately early (between -1/5 and -1 ), 14.0% moderately late (between +1/2
and + 1), 16.2% very early (earlier than -1 ) and 16.6% very late (later than + 1) (Table 13).
The frequency distribution of withdrawal date in order is 38.1%, 15.0%, 14.9%, 15.8% and
16.3% (Table 15). Rainfall activities at the time of onset are different over different subregions.
They can be categorized as abrupt, gradual and feeble. An arbitrary definition for the categories
is as: if more than 40% of the 30-day rainfall at the time of onset occurs in the last 5 days
(including onset date), the onset is regarded as abrupt, between 40% and 25% as gradual and less
than 25% as feeble. For the whole country, percentage frequency of the abrupt, gradual and
feeble onsets is ~42%, ~22% and ~36% respectively (Table 14). The error is least in the
determination of normal, moderately early and moderately late onset dates (~5 days) and large
that of very early and very late onset (7.1-7.8 days) (Table 13), and further it is least in abrupt
onset (4.5 days) and large in gradual (6.3 days) and feeble (7.4 days) (Table 14).
Along West Coast and central and northwest India (SRs 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 15 & 16)
the onset is mostly abrupt (percentage frequency > 60%), gradual 19% and feeble 21%. The
frequency of abrupt onset is highest (82%) over SR-8, followed by SR-5 (74%), SR-9
(70%), SR-3 (67%) and SR-12 (61%). The rain-producing weather systems at the time of
onset over western parts of the country are: onset vortex, off-shore trough along the West
Coast, monsoon convergence zone over central India, monsoon trough over Indo-Gangetic
Plains and mid-tropospheric cyclone over the Gujarat region (SRs 8 and 11).
Over south peninsula (excluding West Coast), northeast and extreme north (SRs 2, 4, 6, 7,
10, 14, 17, 18 and 19) in majority of cases the onset is feeble (percentage frequency 54%),
24% gradual and 22% abrupt.
Over Tamilnadu State (SRs 2 & 4), the frequency distribution of onset date is similar to all-
India (14.04%, 14.9%, 40.3%, 16.7% and 14.04%) but the type of rainfall activities at the
time of onset is mostly feeble (78.9%) followed by gradual (13.2%) and very few (7.9%)
abrupt. The error in determining onset date in different classes (early, normal, late etc.) is
2.7-7.4days, and with categories of rainfall (abrupt, gradual and feeble) 2.8-5.2 days
(Table 18).
Over northeast India (SR 18), the frequency distribution of onset date is 10.53%, 22.81%,
36.84%, 14.04% and 15.78%, slightly bulged towards left compared to all-India frequency
distribution. Majority of onset is feeble (49.12%), followed by gradual (45.61%) and least
abrupt (only 5.26%). The error is least in determining the very early onset (3.9 days) and
most the very late (6.4 days). Further, it is least for abrupt onset (3.5 days) and most for
feeble (7.1 days).
Over West Bengal and neighborhood (SR 14), the frequency distribution of onset date is
14.04, 15.79, 36.84, 14.04 and 19.30 percent, slight right skewed compared all-India
distribution. Majority of onset is feeble (49.1%), followed by abrupt (40.4%) and least
gradual (10.5%). The error is ~6 days in determining the onset in different classes. Further
the error is least in case of abrupt onset (2.4 days) and most for feeble onset (7.5 days).
12
Over northern central Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) (SR 17), the frequency distribution of
onset date is 24.56, 14.04, 29.82, 24.56 and 14.04 percent; slight platykurtic and right
skewed compared to all-India frequency curve. Majority of onset is abrupt (45.7%),
followed by feeble (36.8%) and least gradual (17.5%). The error is least in determining
moderately early and moderately late onset (5.6 days) and most very late onset (11 days).
Further, the error is least for abrupt onset (4.9 days) and most feeble onset (8.7 days).
Over western IGPs (SR 16), the frequency distribution of onset date is 12.28, 19.3, 42.11,
12.28 and 14.04 percent; mostly comparable to all-India curve. Majority of onset is abrupt
(42.11%), followed by feeble (33.33%) and least gradual (24.56%). The error is least in
determining moderately late onset (6.3 days) and most very early onset (12.8 days). Further,
the error is least for abrupt onset (5.3 days) and most feeble onset (10.5 days).
Over extreme northern India (SR 19), the frequency distribution of onset date is 8.77,
21.05, 43.86, 12.28 and 14.04 percent; central lyptokurtic and left platykurtic comapared to
all-India distribution. Majority of onset is feeble (38.6%), followed by gradual (36.84%)
and least abrupt (24.56%). The error is least in determining moderately early onset (6.3
days) and most very late onset (13.2 days). Further, the error is least for abrupt onset (3.3
days) and most gradual onset (10.9 days).
Forty two percent of the normal/early/late onset is abrupt, 23% gradual and 35% feeble. But
along West Coast and over central and northern India, the occurrence of onset in different
classes (normal, early or late) is mostly abrupt (59.4%) followed by feeble (21.3%) and
gradual (19.3%) and over peninsula, east coast and northeast the onset is mostly feeble
(52%) followed by abrupt (26.3%) and gradual (21.7%).

4.2. Withdrawal Dates

The CC between actual and objectively determined withdrawal dates is comparatively
better over peninsula and poor over northern and northwestern regions for the same reasons of
onset dates. The frequency distribution of withdrawal date is in order: 15.8% (normal), 15.0%
(moderately early), 38.1% (moderately late), 14.9% (very early) and 16.3% (very late) (Table
15). Rainfall activities at the time of withdrawal over different subregions can also be categorized
as abrupt, gradual and feeble. Similar to onset date an arbitrary definition for the categories is as:
if more than 40% of the 30-day rainfall at the time of withdrawal occurred in the first 5 days
(including withdrawal date), the withdrawal is regarded as abrupt, between 40% and 25% as
gradual and less than 35% as feeble. For the whole country, percentage frequency of the abrupt,
gradual and feeble onsets is ~30%, ~15% and ~55% respectively (Table 16). For determining the
normal, moderately early and late withdrawal dates the error is least (5.6-7.1 days) and large for
very early and very late withdrawals (8.9-9.6 days) (Table 16). Further, the error is least for
abrupt withdrawal (6.7 days) and large for gradual and feeble withdrawal dates (7.3-7.8 days)
(Table 16). Over West Coast, central India and northern India (SRs 5,8,11,12,13,14,15,16,17 and
19) the withdrawal is generally feeble (50.9%) or abrupt (34.1%) and rarely gradual (15.0%); and
over south peninsula, east coast and north east the withdrawal is generally feeble (58.2%)
followed by abrupt (27.2%) and rarely gradual (14.6%). The information related to withdrawal
date is not very reliable, but is given here as an appraisal to the researchers interested to take up
the problem for detailed study.
13
In general, the objective determination is best when the occurrence of the onset and
withdrawal is abrupt and worst when feeble. The objectively determined (OD) onset and
withdrawal dates for the period 1951-2007 for the 19 subregions are given in Tables 17 to 35 in
order, which also gives the dates available from the IMD charts.

4.3. The Onset and Withdrawal over the Subregions

Extreme Southwest Peninsula (ESWP; SR1)
Onset date - Mean onset is 1 June (, 8.6 days); frequency distribution 15.79% (VE), 14.04%
(ME), 43.86% (N), 8.77% (ML) and 17.54% (VL); error in the determination of onset date in
different classes 6.3, 3.9, 2.8, 4.6 and 6.2 days respectively; onset is 43.86% abrupt, 22.81%
gradual and 33.33% feeble; and error in the determination of abrupt onset is 3.8 days, gradual 5.8
days and feeble 5.2 days. At the time of onset over ESWP (SR1; Kerala State) the thickness of
lower troposphere over the CME is 4381.6m, the thickness of upper troposphere over the
THIKHIHILs 6574.5m, the U200 over the KJNWNP 34.2 m/s, the U200 over the CACSP
41.1m/s, the U850 over the EWPO -4.3m/s, the V850 along the Somali Coast 5.5m/s, the V850
over the IMMC 1.1m/s, the U850 over the CAS 8.3m/s, the V850 over the MCICP 2.8m/s and
the Z200 over south Asia 12404.2m (GARACII= 1.0). The local hydrometeorological condition
(LHMC) is as: 30-day total rainfall 240.8mm, precipitable water (PW) 41.3mm, total cloud cover
(TCC) 57.4%, U850 4.0m/s, U200 -6.5m/s, Z850 1492.4m and the Z200 12462.3m.
Withdrawal date The mean date is 19 October (, 6.0 days). The frequency distribution of
withdrawal date is 17.5% (VE), 8.8% (ME), 40.4% (N), 17.5% (ML) and 15.8% (VL); 15.8% of
the withdrawal is abrupt, 17.5% gradual and 66.7% feeble. The value of GARACII is 1.035.
During monsoon period, five wet spells occur, each of duration 9.5 days and rainfall intensity
(RI) 27.6mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell is 15.2 days and the
RI 5.8mm/day (Singh and Ranade, 2009).

Extreme Southeast Peninsula (ESEP; SR2)
days and feeble 4.9 days. Features of the general atmospheric circulation and that of regional
circulation are the same as that over the SR1 (GARACII= 1.03; 3% higher than that for the SR1).
The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 53.8mm, the PW 40.9mm, the TCC 52.5%, the U850 4.5m/s,
the U200 -7.2m/s, the Z850 1487.8m and the Z200 12462.6m.
Withdrawal date The mean date is 19 October (, 6.0 days). The frequency distribution of
withdrawal date is 14.0% (VE), 15.8% (ME), 35.1% (N), 19.3% (ML) and 15.8% (VL); 12.3% of
the withdrawal is abrupt, 17.5% gradual and 70.2% feeble. The value of GARACII is 1.035.
During monsoon period, five wet spells occur, each of duration 9.4 days and rainfall intensity
(RI) 7.6mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell is 17.8 days and the RI
0.8mm/day.

14
Southern Central West Coast (SCWC; SR3)

days and feeble 5.4 days. At the time of onset over the SCWC (SR3) the thickness of lower
troposphere over the CME is 4395.8m, the thickness of upper troposphere over the THIKHIHILs
6605.9m, the U200 over the KJNWNP 30.4m/s, the U200 over the CANWSP 44.9m/s, the U850
over the EWPO -4.9m/s, the V850 along the Somali Coast 6.6m/s, the V850 over the IMMC
1.2m/s, the U850 over the CAS 11.5m/s, the V850 over the MCICP 3.0m/s and the Z200 over
south Asia 12439.7m (GARACII= 1.123; 12.3% higher than that for the SR1). The LHMC is:
30-day total rainfall 201.4mm, the PW 36.9mm, the TCC 52.6%, the U850 3.4m/s, the U200 -
4.3m/s, the Z850 1487.3m and the Z200 12468.8m.
Withdrawal date The mean date is 19 October (, 6.0 days); the frequency distribution of
withdrawal date is 17.5% (VE), 15.8% (ME), 35.1% (N), 19.3% (ML) and 12.3% (VL); the error
in the determination of withdrawal date in different classes is 7.9, 5.8, 7.6, 3.6 and 7.5 days
respectively; 26.3% of the withdrawal is abrupt, 22.8% gradual and 50.9% feeble; and the error
in the determination of different types of the withdrawal 4.7, 8.0 and 5.9 days respectively. The
value of GARACII is 1.084. During monsoon period, five wet spells occur, each of duration 11.5
days and rainfall intensity (RI) 36.9mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell is
12.7 days and the RI 9.8mm/day.

Central Southeast Peninsula (CSEP; SR4)
days and feeble 5.0 days. Features of the general atmospheric circulation and that of regional
circulation are the same as that over the SR3 (GARACII= 1.157; 15.7% higher than that for the
SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 68.8mm, the PW 38.5mm, the TCC 45.2%, the U850
3.4m/s, the U200 -6.8m/s, the Z850 1479.6m and the Z200 12469.8m.
respectively; 7.0% of the withdrawal is abrupt, 21.1% gradual and 71.9% feeble; and the error in
the determination of different types of the withdrawal 6.5, 6.8 and 5.6 days respectively. The
value of GARACII is 1.084. During monsoon period, six wet spells occur, each of duration 8.9
days and rainfall intensity (RI) 8.2mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell is

Northern Central West Coast (NCWC; SR5)
gradual and 10.53% feeble; and error in the determination of abrupt onset is 2.4 days,
15
gradual 5.6 days and feeble 7.8 days. Features of the general atmospheric circulation and that of
regional circulation are the same as that over the SRs 3 & 4 (GARACII= 1.264; 26.4% higher
than that for the SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 130.5mm, the PW 35.5mm, the TCC
46.1%, the U850 3.4m/s, the U200 -2.3m/s, the Z850 1482.1m and the Z200 12473.7m.
value of GARACII is 1.189. During monsoon period, five wet spells occur, each of duration
10.9 days and rainfall intensity (RI) 30.1mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry
spell is 14 days and the RI 7.2mm/day.

Southern Central Peninsula (SCP; SR6)
gradual and 50.88% feeble; and error in the determination of abrupt onset is 4.5 days, gradual
4.8 days and feeble 5.0 days. At the time of onset over the SCP (SR6) the thickness of lower
6637.4m, the U200 over the KJNWNP 30.1m/s, the U200 over the CACSP 46.0m/s, the U850
1.1m/s, the U850 over the CAS 12.8m/s, the V850 over the MCICP 4.2m/s and the Z200 over the
South Asia 12470.6m (GARACII= 1.336; 33.6% higher than that for the SR1). The LHMC is:
30-day total rainfall 63.4mm, the PW 35.5mm, the TCC 49.0%, the U850 4.2m/s, the
U200 -4.1m/s, the Z850 1475.7m and the Z200 12475.9m.
7.9 days and rainfall intensity (RI) 8.9mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell is

Central East Coast (CEC; SR7)
4.3 days and feeble 5.5 days. Features of the general atmospheric circulation and that of regional
circulation are the same as that over the SR6 (GARACII= 1.373; 37.3% higher than that for the
SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 61.8mm, the PW 40.7mm, the TCC 53.3%, the
U850 4.2m/s, the U200 -6.0m/s, the Z850 1469.1m and the Z200 12478.7m.
16
in the determination of different types of the withdrawal 11.3, 4.4 and 13.2 days respectively.
The value of GARACII is 1.135. During monsoon period, six wet spells occur, each of duration
7.4 days and rainfall intensity (RI) 11.6mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell
is 14.8 days and the RI 2.2mm/day.

Northern West Coast (NWC; SR8)
circulation are the same as that over the SRs 6 & 7 (GARACII= 1.409; 40.9% higher than that for
the SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 81.5mm, the PW 33.5mm, the TCC 35.5%, the
U850 4.0m/s, the U200 -0.3m/s, the Z850 1477.3m and the Z200 12478.7m.
value of GARACII is 1.339. During monsoon period, six wet spells occur, each of duration

Northern Central Peninsula (NCP; SR9)
4.5 days and feeble 7.9 days. At the time of onset over the NCP (SR9) the thickness of lower
17

Northern East Coast (NEC; SR10)
4.4 days and feeble 6.9 days. Features of the general and regional atmospheric circulations are
the same as that over the SR 9 (GARACII= 1.511; 51.1% higher than that for the SR1). The
LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 60.4mm, the PW 34.9mm, the TCC 46.4%, the U850 4.5m/s, the

Southern Northwest India (SNWI; SR11)
6.1 days and feeble 9.1 days. At the time of onset over the SNWI (SR11) the thickness of lower
Withdrawal date The mean date is 28 September (, 6.0 days); the frequency distribution of
value of GARACII is 1.512. During monsoon period, four wet spells occur, each of duration
18
Western Central India (NCI; SR12)

the same as that over the SR11 (GARACII= 1.665; 66.5% higher than that for the SR1). The
U200 1.5m/s, the Z850 1449.0m and the Z200 12491.7m.
10.1 days and rainfall intensity (RI) 15.8mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry
spell is 11.8 days and the RI 3.8mm/day.

Eastern Central India (ECI; SR13)
the same as that over the SRs 11 & 12 (GARACII= 1.634; 63.4% higher than that for SR1). The
the determination of different types of the withdrawal 6.9, - and 6.5 days respectively. The value
of GARACII is 1.339. During monsoon period, six wet spells occur, each of duration 9.2 days
and rainfall intensity (RI) 15.9mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell is

Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain (EIGP; SR14)
circulation are the same as that over the SRs 6, 7 & 8 (GARACII= 1.409; 40.9% higher than that
for the SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 123.8mm, the PW 41.7mm, the TCC 38.4%, the
U850 2.3m/s, the U200 7.3m/s, the Z850 1447.7m and the Z200 12477.8m.
19
value of GARACII is 1.269. During monsoon period, seven wet spells occur, each of duration

Northern Northwest India (NNWI; SR15)
Onset date - Mean onset is 8 July (, 8.0 days); frequency distribution 17.54% (VE), 15.79%
18.3 days and feeble 12.0 days. At the time of onset over the NNWI (SR15) the thickness of
lower troposphere over the CME is 4429.1m, the thickness of upper troposphere over the
THIKHIHILs 6701.2m, the U200 over the KJNWNP 17.7m/s, the U200 over the CACSP
43.6m/s, the U850 over the EWPO -4.3m/s, the V850 along the Somali Coast 8.1m/s, the
V850 over the IMMC 1.8m/s, the U850 over the CAS 14.5m/s, the V850 over the MCICP 3.4m/s
and the Z200 over the South Asia 12547.4m (GARACII= 2.051; 105.1% higher than that for the
SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 55.7mm, the PW 39.8mm, the TCC 33.4%, the
U850 3.1m/s, the U200 3.1m/s, the Z850 1423.8m and the Z200 12527.6m.
value of GARACII is 1.681. During monsoon period, three wet spells occur, each of duration
7.7 days and rainfall intensity (RI) 9.2mm/day- the duration of each of the intervening dry spell is

Western Indo-Gangetic Plain (WIGP; SR16)
9.6 days and feeble 10.5 days. At the time of onset over the WIGP (SR16) the thickness of lower
6699.8m, the U200 over the KJNWNP 21.8m/s, the U200 over the CACSP 46.2m/s, the
U850 over the EWPO -4.4m/s, the V850 along the Somali Coast 8.3m/s, the V850 over the
IMMC 1.6m/s, the U850 over the CAS 14.9m/s, the V850 over the MCICP 3.6m/s and the
Z200 over south Asia 12541.0m (GARACII= 1.915; 91.5% higher than that for the SR1). The
20

Central Indo-Gangetic Plain (CIGP; SR17)
circulation are the same as that over the SRs 11, 12, 13 & 17 (GARACII= 1.665; 66.5% higher
than that for the SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 95.3mm, the PW 32.9mm, the
TCC 33.4%, the U850 3.1m/s, the U200 8.9m/s, the Z850 1440.4m and the Z200 12480.4m.

Northeast India (NEI; SR18)
circulation are the same as that over the SRs 3, 4 & 5 (GARACII= 1.157; 15.7% higher than that
for the SR 1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 269.4mm, the PW 33.7mm, the TCC 47.7%,
the U850 2.3m/s, the U200 14.6m/s, the Z850 1461.1m and the Z200 12452.3m.
value of GARACII is 1.135. During monsoon period, seven wet spells occur, each of duration
21
Extreme Northern India (ENI; SR19)

Onset date - Mean onset is 1 July (, 8.0 days); frequency distribution 8.77% (VE), 21.05%
gradual and 38.60% feeble; and error in the determination of abrupt onset is 3.3 days,
gradual 10.9 days and feeble 9.0 days. Features of the general atmospheric circulation and that of
regional circulation are the same as that over the SR16 (GARACII= 1.938; 93.8% higher than
that for the SR1). The LHMC is: 30-day total rainfall 102.1mm, the PW 22.9mm, the TCC
20.6%, the U850 1.4m/s, the U200 16.7m/s, the Z850 1448.9m and the Z200 12463.8m.
withdrawal date is 15.8% (VE), 5.3% (ME), 54.4% (N), 7.0% (ML) and 17.5% (VL); the error in
the determination of withdrawal date in different classes is 14.3, 8.9, 9.5, 8.4 and 13.0 days
in the determination of different types of the withdrawal 6.3, 11.0 and 13.0 days respectively.
The value of GARACII is 1.607. During monsoon period, four wet spells occur, each of duration

5. Limitations
There are some limitations of this study, which must be borne in mind before taking any new
study in the future.
i. The IMD subjectively draws the line of the Northern Limit of Monsoon; NLM to
demarcate the limit of northward propagation of the monsoon after the onset over the
Kerala Coast and similarly subjective lines are drawn to demarcate the southward retreat
of the monsoon;
ii. From these subjectively drawn IMD charts, yearwise onset and withdrawal dates have
been picked up subjectively for the 19 subregions of the country;
iii. Area-averaged rainfall is considered as uniform mean rainfall amount for the subregion,
but for the same rainfall amount spatial variability could be quite different and thus the
regional circulations and the local meteorological conditions;
iv. A unified approach has been attempted for the 19 subregions with diverse meteorological
conditions perhaps subregion specific criteria can give better results;
v. There is some biasedness of the present objective criteria the objectively determined
onset date occurs ~4 days later than the IMD date, and the withdrawal date ~5 days earlier
(the RMSE reported here is after correction for bias);
vi. Extra-tropical parameters should be considered to obtain satisfactory results for northern
and northwestern parts of the country;
vii. The monsoon onset and withdrawal over the particular subregion does not occur with the
same intensity every year both phases of the monsoon occurrences can be categorized
as feeble, gradual and abrupt; and
viii. There are limitations of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data also.

22
6. Summary and Conclusion

1. The two heating parameters in and around the Tibet-Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush
highlands (THIKHIHILs), two general circulation parameters over eastern hemisphere,
three regional circulation parameters around summer monsoon circulation system that show
steady increase from summer to the monsoon onset period and decrease from established to
withdrawal period are used along with seven local hydro-meteorological conditions to
determine yearwise the onset and withdrawal dates of summer monsoon over 19 subregions
of India.
2. The determination of onset date is excellent to very good along West Coast and over central
and northern India and satisfactory over remaining parts.
3. The determination of withdrawal date is very good over peninsular India, east coast and
northeast India.
4. Rainfall activities at the time of onset and withdrawal are generally abrupt along West
Coast and over central and northern India and feeble over peninsula, east coast and
northeast.
5. Information related to withdrawal date is not very reliable, but it is given here as an
appraisal to the researchers interested to take up the problem for detailed study.
There is some biasedness in the determination of the onset and withdrawal dates, the
present objective criteria can be adopted for operational purposes after necessary research and
development work. As the linkages between circulation parameters and onset and withdrawal
dates provide vital scientific information, they will be explored for prediction of summer
monsoon onset and withdrawal across the country.

Acknowledgements. The authors are extremely grateful to Prof. B.N.Goswami, Director, Indian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (INDIA) for necessary facilities to pursue this study, and
to Dr. P.N. Mahajan, R.M. Khaladkar and S.S. Dugam for critically reviewing the manuscript
offering valuable suggestions for modifying the manuscript. The 1-degree raster data of daily
rainfall of the period 1951-2007 for the country was provided by the India Meteorological
Department, Pune which is thankfully acknowledged.
-------

23
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25
Annexure I

Pentad numbers and the corresponding calendar dates

Pentad No. Dates Pentad No. Dates Pentad No. Dates
1
1-5 Jan
26
6-10 May
51
8-12 Sept
2
6-10 Jan
27
11-15 May
52
13-17 Sept
3
11-15 Jan
28
16-20 May
53
18-22 Sept
4 16-20 Jan 29 21-25 May 54 23-27 Sept
5
21-25 Jan
30
26-30 May
55
28 Sept-2 Oct
6
26-30 Jan
31
31 May-4 Jun
56
3-7 Oct
7
31 Jan-4 Feb
32
5-9 Jun
57
8-12 Oct
8
5-9 Feb
33
10-14 Jun
58
13-17 Oct
9
10-14 Feb
34
15-19 Jun
59
18-22 Oct
10
15-19 Feb
35
20-24 Jun
60
23-27 Oct
11
20-24 Feb
36
25-29 Jun
61
28 Oct -1 Nov
12
25 Feb- 1 Mar
37
30 Jun-3July
62
2-6 Nov
13
2-6 Mar
38
4-9 July
63
7-11 Nov
14 7-11 Mar 39 10-14 July 64 12-16 Nov
15
12-16 Mar
40
15-19 July
65
17-21 Nov
16
17-21 Mar
41
20-24 July
66
22-26 Nov
17
22-26 Mar
42
25-29 July
67
27 Nov -1 Dec
18
27-31 Mar
43
30 July- 3 Aug
68
2-6 Dec
19
1-5 Apr
44
4-8 Aug
69
7-11 Dec
20
6-10 Apr
45
9-13 Aug
70
12-16 Dec
21
11-15 Apr
46
14-18 Aug
71
17-21 Dec
22
16-20 Apr
47
19-23 Aug
72
22-26 Dec
23
21-25 Apr
48
24-28 Aug
73
27-31 Dec
24 26-30 Apr 49 29 Aug-2 Sept -
25
1-5 May
50
3-7 Sept
26
Table 1. The threshold to 30-day mean rainfall and other meteorological parameters at the time
of summer monsoon onset and withdrawal (in bracket) over the particular subregion of
the country.

Sub-
region
Name of the
subregion
Rainfall
(mm)
PPW
(mm)
TCC
(%)
U850
(m/s)
U200
(m/s)

Z850
(m)

Z200
(m)

SR 1
Extreme southwest
peninsula (ESWP)
240.8
(213.3)
41.3
(42.8)
57.4
(59.2)
4.0
(-1.1)
- 6.5
(-8.3)
1492.4
(1503.1)
12462.3
(12424.6)
SR 2
Extreme southeast
peninsula (ESEP)
53.8
(235.6)
40.9
(43.0)
52.5
(63.4)
4.5
(-1.4)
-7.2
(-9.3)
1487.8
(1501.3)
12462.6
(12425.3)
SR 3
Southern central West
Coast (SCWC)
201.4
(116.3)
36.9
(37.8)
52.6
(56.5)
3.4
(-3.3)
-4.3
(-3.3)
1487.3
(1505.3)
12468.8
(12430.7)
SR 4
Central southeast peninsula
(CSEP)
68.8
(176.0)
38.5
(40.5)
45.2
(57.4)
3.4
(-3.5)
-6.8
(-4.7)
1479.6
(1502.5)
12469.8
(12433.3)
SR 5
Northern central West
Coast (NCWC)
130.5
(62.1)
35.5
(35.1)
46.1
(47.8)
3.4
(-3.8)
-2.3
(1.14)
1482.1
(1506.5)
12473.7
(12432.0)
SR 6
Southern central peninsula
(SCP)
63.4
(58.4)
35.5
(34.4)
49.0
(48.1)
4.2
(-4.0)
-4.1
(0.5)
1475.7
(1506.2)
12475.9
(12433.2)
SR 7
Central East Coast
(CEC)
61.8
(142.6)
40.7
(40.1)
53.3
(54.4)
4.2
(-3.9)
-6.0
(-0.5)
1469.1
(1504.2)
12478.7
(12437.7)
SR 8
Northern West Coast
(NWC)
81.5
(48.1)
33.5
(31.9)
35.5
(40.8)
4.0
(-3.4)
-0.3
(4.6)
1477.3
(1509.1)
12478.7
(12433.3)
SR 9
Northern central peninsula
(NCP)
60.4
(148.5)
34.9
(33.2)
46.4
(43.7)
4.5
(-3.2)
-2.3
(4.0)
1467.5
(1508.0)
12483.2
(12436.1)
SR 10
Northern East Coast
(NEC)
110.9
(104.1)
39.6
(34.1)
55.9
(43.4)
3.8
(-1.9)
-1.6
(8.5)
1456.2
(1508.9)
12487.6
(12429.7)
SR 11
Southern northwest India
(SNWI)
48.4
(21.4)
35.6
(20.7)
30.5
(23.8)
5.0
(-1.4)
-0.5
(8.2)
1462.1
(1509.7)
12496.0
(12434.4)
SR 12
Western central India
(WCI)
64.4
(33.1)
35.1
(28.9)
48.5
(33.7)
4.3
(-0.8)
1.5
(11.7)
1449.0
(1504.4)
12491.7
(12424.9)
SR 13
Eastern central India
(ECI)
83.5
(37.1)
38.5
(29.1)
45.7
(29.3)
2.7
(0.1)
3.8
(17.4)
1440.4
(1504.8)
12490.8
(12408.9)
SR 14
Eastern Indo Gangetic
Plain (EIGP)
123.8
(45.9)
41.7
(32.4)
38.4
(29.9)
2.3
(0.1)
7.3
(18.5)
1447.7
(1505.1)
12477.8
(12406.2)
SR 15
Northern northwest India
(NNWI)
55.7
(16.1)
39.8
(26.6)
33.4
(20.0)
3.1
(-1.5)
3.1
(16.7)
1423.8
(1491.7)
12527.6
(12411.5)
SR 16
Western Indo Gangetic
Plains(WIGP)
68.0
(36.7)
33.7
(23.7)
32.5
(20.5)
3.9
(0.9)
7.4
(22.4)
1434.6
(1502.2)
12500.5
(12376.9)
SR17
Central Indo Gangetic Plain
(CIGP)
95.3
(44.4)
32.9
(25.0)
33.4
(25.5)
3.1
(0.5)
8.9
(23.1)
1440.4
(1506.9)
12480.9
(12381.6)
SR 18
Northeast India
(NEI)
269.4
(71.3)
33.7
(27.3)
47.7
(37.1)
2.3
( 0.5)
14.6
(25.4)
1461.1
(1510.5)
12452.3
(12375.8)
SR 19
Extreme northern India
(ENI)
102.1
(46.8)
22.9
(17.3)
20.6
(17.1)
1.4
(0.2)
16.7
(28.1)
1448.9
(1508.6)
12463.8
(12310.5)

27
Table 2. Meteorological parameters used for development of the LHMI for the determination of
onset and withdrawal dates of the 19 subregions. The CC indicates correlation
coefficient between actual and objectively determined onset-withdrawal dates.

Sub
region
Onset date CC Withdrawal date CC
1 Rain, PPW, U200, U850, Z200, Z850
0.81
Rain, PPW, U200
-
2
Rain, PPW, U200, U850, Z200, Z850 0.78 Rain, PPW, U200 -
3
Rain, PPW, U850 0.83 Rain, PPW, U200 0.60
4
Rain, PPW, U850,Z850, TCC 0.78 Rain, PPW, U200, U850, Z200, Z850 0.58
5 Rain, PPW, U850, TCC 0.80 Rain, PPW, U200 0.44
6
Rain, PPW, U850,Z850, TCC 0.71 Rain, PPW, U200, U850, Z200, Z850 0.45
7 Rain, PPW, U850, TCC 0.71 Rain, PPW, Z850, TCC 0.40
8
Rain, PPW, Z850 0.79 Rain, PPW, U850 0.50
9
Rain, PPW, Z850 0.59 Rain, PPW, U200, TCC 0.48
10
Rain, PPW, U200, U850, Z200, Z850, TCC 0.53 Rain, PPW, U850, TCC 0.55
11 Rain, PPW, Z200, TCC 0.59 Rain, TCC 0.82
12
Rain, PPW, Z850 0.49 Rain, PPW, U200, Z850 0.56
13 Rain, PPW, Z850 0.60 Rain, PPW, TCC 0.48
14
Rain, PPW, U200, TCC 0.56 Rain, PPW, Z200, TCC 0.47
15
Rain, PPW, U850, TCC 0.47 Rain, PPW, TCC 0.15
16
Rain, PPW, U200, U850, Z200, Z850, TCC 0.36 Rain, PPW, U200 0.27
17 Rain, PPW, Z850 0.52 Rain, PPW, Z200 0.43
18
Rain, PPW, U200, TCC 0.55 Rain, PPW, U850, TCC 0.28
19
Rain, PPW, Z850 0.37 Rain, PPW, U200 0.21

28
Table 3. The threshold to 30-day mean of the GARACII parameters at the time of onset over the
subregion 1 (SR 1; Kerala State).

Sr. No. General and regional atmospheric circulation parameters
Threshold
value
1
Lower troposphere thickness over central Middle East
(CME; 25 -35N; 40 -75E) (m)
4348.1
2
Upper troposphere thickness over the Tibet-Himalaya Karakoram-
Hindukush Highlands (THIKHIHILs; 25- 35N; 60- 95E) (m)
6503.3
3 V850 along Somali Coast (SC; 5S -10N; 45 -55E) (m/s) 2.82
4
V850 over Indonesia Malaysia maritime continent (IMMC; 5S -5N;
100 -150E) (m/s)
0.78
5 U850 over central Arabian Sea (CAS; 5 -15N; 55 -70E) (m/s) 2.76
6
V850 over Myanmar and central Indo China peninsula (MCICP; 10-
30N; 90- 100E) (m/s)
2.09
7 Z200 over South Asia (SA; 25 -35N; 50- 100E) (m) 12313.7

29
Table 4. The threshold to the GARACII at the time of onset and that at the time of withdrawal
date of the summer monsoon over the 19 sub-regions.

Subregion The GARACII value at the time of
Onset Withdrawal
1 1 1.035
2 1.029 1.035
3 1.123 1.084
4 1.157 1.084
5 1.264 1.189
6 1.336 1.162
7 1.373 1.135
8 1.409 1.339
9 1.478 1.318
10 1.511 1.216
11 1.728 1.512
12 1.665 1.419
13 1.634 1.339
14 1.409 1.269
15 2.051 1.681
16 1.915 1.531
17 1.665 1.420
18 1.157 1.135
19 1.938 1.607

30
Table 5. Climatological value of 10 selected general and regional atmospheric circulation
parameters for the 6 subperiods of the annual weather cycle over India.

Sr.
No.
GAC parameter
Subperiods of the annual weather cycle
P72 -P16 P17- P30 P31- P38 P39 -P51 P52 -P59 P59- P71
1
Lower troposphere thickness
over central Middle East
(25-35N; 40-75E) (m)
4183.0 4303.6 4409.6 4416.8 4334.3 4239.1
2
Upper troposphere thickness
over Tibet-Himalaya-
Karakoram -Hindukush
Highlands
(25 -35N; 60-95E) (m)
6317.0 6427.6 6655.9 6692.1 6544.7 6380.9
3
U200 over Korea-J apan -
northwest North Pacific (30-
40N; 120- 160E) (m/s)
61.8 41.5 27.3 11.0 30.8 54.1
4
U200 central Australia-
southwest South Pacific (20
-30S; 120 -180E) (m/s)
17.2 33.6 44.8 43.7 38.3 30.7
5
U850 over equatorial western
Pacific Ocean (10S -10N;
150- 180E) (m/s)
-2.5 -3.5 -4.5 -4.0 -3.4 -1.7
6
V850 over Indonesia Malaysia
maritime continent (5S -5N;
100 -150E) (m/s)
-1.6 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.3 -0.1
7
V850 over Myanmar and
central Indo China peninsula
(10 -30N; 90 -100E) (m/s)
0.3 1.3 3.6 2.8 1.7 0.4
8
V850 along Somali Coast
(5S- 10N; 45- 55E) (m/s)
-2.0 0.9 7.5 7.9 2.4 - 1.9
9
U850 over central Arabian Sea
(5- 15N; 55 -70E) (m/s)
-4.7 -1.1 13.2 13.3 3.5 -3.6
10
Z200 over South Asia (25 -
35N; 50 -100E) (m)
12008.7 12212.5 12492.7 12541.2 12370.0 12142.6

31
Table 6. Climatological value of the 10 selected general and regional circulation parameters for
the 8 pentads of the onset (withdrawal) phase of summer monsoon over India.

Sr.
No
GAC parameter
Pentads of the onset phase
P31
(P52)
P32
(P53)
P33
(P54)
P34
(P55)
P35
(P56)
P36
(P57)
P37
(P58)
P38
(P59)
1
Lower troposphere
thickness over central
Middle East (25-35N;
40-75E) (m)
4381.6
(4375.0)
4395.8
(4362.4)
4399.3
(4353.5)
4407.3
(4339.9)
4415.3
(4328.3)
4421.8
(4314.5)
4426.3
(4304.5)
4429.1
(4296.0)
2
Upper troposphere
thickness over Tibet-
Himalaya- Karakoram -
Hindukush Highlands
(25 -35N; 60-95E)
(m)
6574.5
(6616.4)
6605.9
(6596.3)
6637.4
(6579.1)
6660.7
(6556.6)
6676.6
(6538.0)
6691.3
(6513.2)
6699.8
(6487.8)
6701.2
(6469.9)
3
U200 over Korea-J apan -
northwest North Pacific
(30- 40N; 120- 160E)
(m/s)
34.2
(20.6)
30.4
(24.6)
30.1
(26.7)
29.1
(29.9)
28.8
(32.9)
25.8
(33.7)
21.8
(37.9)
17.7
(39.6)
4
U200 central Australia-
southwest South Pacific
(20 -30S; 120 -180E)
(m/s)
41.1
(40.6)
44.9
(39.6)
46.0
(39.7)
46.2
(37.6)
44.2
(36.6)
45.7
(36.4)
46.2
(38.2)
43.6
(37.3)
5
U850 over equatorial
western Pacific Ocean
(10S -10N; 150-
180E) (m/s)
-4.3
(-3.4)
-4.9
(-3.5)
-4.6
(-3.9)
-4.5
(-4.1)
-4.2
(-3.3)
-4.1
(-2.6)
-4.4
(-3.1)
-4.3
(-3.1)
6
V850 over Indonesia
Malaysia maritime
continent (5S -5N; 100
-150E) (m/s)
1.1
(1.9)
1.2
(1.3)
1.1
(1.2)
1.4
(1.1)
1.5
(1.2)
1.5
(1.1)
1.6
(0.9)
1.8
(0.9)
7
V850 over Myanmar and
central Indo China
peninsula (10 -30N; 90
-100E) (m/s)
2.8
(1.5)
3.0
(1.9)
4.2
(2.2)
3.8
(2.0)
4.0
(1.9)
3.6
(1.3)
3.6
(1.4)
3.4
(1.1)
8
V850 along Somali Coast
(5S- 10N; 45- 55E)
(m/s)
5.5
(4.8)
6.6
(4.4)
7.6
(3.5)
7.8
(3.2)
7.8
(2.1)
8.0
(1.3)
8.3
(0.2)
8.1
(-0.3)
9
U850 over central
Arabian Sea (5- 15N;
55 -70E) (m/s)
8.3
(7.2)
11.5
(6.6)
12.8
(5.8)
14.3
(4.5)
14.4
(2.7)
14.8
(1.2)
14.9
(0.0)
14.5
(-0.5)
10.
Z200 over South Asia
(25 -35N; 50 -100E)
(m)
12404.2
(12460.4)
12439.7
(12434.3)
12470.6
(12415.7)
12493.1
(12385.8)
12514.0
(12362.1)
12532.0
(12328.2)
12541.0
(12298.0)
12547.4
(12275.9)

32
Table 7. Climatological value of the lower and upper tropospheric temperatures (C) over the
whole globe and 5 climatic zones for the 6 subperiods of the annual weather cycle
over India.

Sr.
No.
Region
Lower/
Upper
troposphere
Subperiods of the annual cycle
P72 -P16
(S1)
P17 -P30
(S2)
P31-P38
(S3)
P39- P51
(S4)
P52- P59
(S5)
P60 -P71
(S6)
1 Global
LT - 4.3 -3.5 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3 -4.1
UT -41.5 -41.5 -40.9 -40.9 -41.7 -42.0
2
Northern hemisphere
(NH)
LT - 6.8 -2.8 1.6 2.4 -0.8 -4.7
UT -43.6 -41.5 -38.2 -37.6 -39.9 -42.4
3
Southern hemisphere
(SH)
LT - 1.8 -4.1 -6.2 -6.9 -5.8 -3.5
UT -39.4 -41.6 -43.7 -44.2 -43.4 -41.5
4
Extra tropical
NH
LT -17.3 -11.1 -3.1 -1.5 -7.4 -14.0
UT -50.4 -46.7 -41.5 -40.3 -44.3 -48.4
5
Extra tropical
SH
LT - 9.3 -13.3 -16.2 -17.1 -15.5 -11.9
UT
-43.3 -47.3 -50.7 -51.6 -50.0 -46.6
6 Tropics
LT 4.7 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.8
UT -36.2 -36.0 -35.8 -35.8 -36.1 -36.4

Table 8. Climatological temperature of the lower and upper troposphere (in C) over the whole
globe and the 5 climatic zones during 8 pentads of the onset phase of the summer
monsoon across India.

Sr.
No.
Region
Lower/
Upper
troposphere
P31 P32 P33 P34 P35 P36 P37 P38
1 Global
LT - 2.7 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0
UT -41.2 -41.1 -41.0 -40.9 -40.9 -40.8 -40.8 -40.8
2
Northern
hemisphere (NH)
LT 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6
UT -39.3 -38.9 -38.6 -38.3 -38.0 -37.8 -37.6 -37.4
3
Southern
hemisphere (SH)
LT -5.6 -5.8 -6.0 -6.2 -6.3 -6.4 -6.6 -6.7
UT -43.1 -43.3 -43.5 -43.6 -43.7 -43.9 -44.0 -44.2
4 Extra tropical NH
LT -5.6 -4.8 -4.0 -3.3 -2.6 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0
UT -43.3 -42.7 -42.1 -41.7 -41.2 -40.7 -40.3 -39.9
5 Extra tropical SH
LT -15.4 -15.7 -16.0 -16.1 -16.3 -16.5 -16.7 -16.8
UT -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5
6 Tropics
LT 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8
UT -35.8 -35.7 -35.7 -35.7 -35.7 -35.8 -35.8 -35.9

33
Table 9. Climatological value of the lower and upper tropospheric temperature (C) over the
whole globe and 5 climatic zones for the 8 pentads of withdrawal phase of monsoon
across India.

Sr.
No
.
Region
Lower/
Upper
troposphere
Pentads of the withdrawal phase
P52 P53 P54 P55 P56 P57 P58 P59
1 Global
LT -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -3.7
UT -41.4 -41.5 -41.6 -41.7 -41.7 -41.8 -41.9 -41.9
2
Northern
hemisphere (NH)
LT 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -1.0 -1.5 -1.9 -2.3
UT -38.9 -39.2 -39.5 -39.8 -40.1 -40.3 -40.7 -41.0
3
Southern
hemisphere (SH)
LT -6.4 -6.2 -6.1 -5.9 -5.8 -5.5 -5.3 -5.1
UT -43.9 -43.8 -43.7 -43.5 -43.4 -43.2 -43.0 -42.8
4 Extra tropical NH
LT -4.8 -5.5 -6.3 -7.1 -7.8 -8.5 -9.3 -10.0
UT -42.7 -43.1 -43.6 -44.1 -44.5 -45.0 -45.6 -46.0
5 Extra tropical SH
LT -16.4 -16.3 -16.0 -15.7 -15.5 -15.2 -14.8 -14.5
UT -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 -49.3 -48.9
6 Tropics
LT 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8
UT -36.0 -36.0 -36.1 -36.1 -36.2 -36.2 -36.3 -36.3

Table 10. Climatological value of lower and upper tropospheric thicknesses (meters) over the
whole globe and 5 climatic zones for 6 subperiods of the annual weather cycle over
India.

Sr.
No.
Region
Lower/
Upper
troposphere
Subperiods of the annual cycle
P72-P16 P17- P30 P31-P38 P39- P51 P52- P59 P59- P71
1 Global
LT 4186.4 4198.2 4217.1 4217.9 4200.7 4189.0
UT 6352.5 6355.9 6376.3 6378.6 6356.1 6344.4
2
Northern hemisphere
(NH)
LT 4148.0 4208.0 4278.3 4290.4 4239.5 4180.5
UT 6290.6 6357.5 6455.5 6476.0 6408.1 6331.4
3
Southern hemisphere
(SH)
LT 4225.0 4188.6 4156.2 4145.7 4162.1 4197.7
UT 6414.8 6354.7 6297.6 6281.6 6304.4 6357.7
4 Extra tropical NH
LT 3982.1 4078.2 4203.1 4228.6 4135.8 4033.6
UT 6071.0 6182.1 6342.7 6380.9 6261.7 6136.2
5 Extra tropical SH
LT 4107.1 4044.2 3999.0 3984.7 4008.3 4065.5
UT 6274.4 6168.5 6076.3 6052.7 6094.9 6186.7
6 Tropics
LT 4328.5 4335.4 4333.4 4329.4 4329.6 4328.7
UT 6532.7 6536.9 6543.6 6540.8 6534.3 6527.7

34
Table 11. Climatological value of lower and upper tropospheric thickness (meters) over the
whole globe and 5 climatic zones for 8 pentads of onset phase of summer monsoon
across India.

Sr.
No
.
Region
Lower/
Upper
troposphere
P31 P32 P33 P34 P35 P36 P37 P38
1 Global
LT 4211.4 4213.4 4215.0 4217.0 4218.9 4219.8 4220.3 4221.3
UT 6368.1 6371.2 6373.6 6376.6 6378.7 6379.6 6380.9 6381.8
2
Northern
hemisphere (NH)
LT 4257.9 4264.9 4271.2 4277.3 4282.7 4287.2 4290.8 4294.2
UT 6424.4 6434.7 6445.1 6453.9 6462.1 6468.6 6474.9 6480.2
3
Southern
hemisphere (SH)
LT 4165.2 4162.1 4159.0 4156.9 4155.2 4152.6 4150.1 4148.5
UT 6312.0 6308.3 6302.7 6299.7 6295.7 6290.9 6287.3 6283.8
4
Extra tropical
NH
LT 4163.6 4176.5 4188.6 4200.1 4210.9 4220.3 4228.8 4235.9
UT 6287.9 6305.3 6322.6 6337.6 6352.2 6365.6 6380.1 6390.5
5
Extra tropical
SH
LT 4010.8 4006.8 4002.2 4000.1 3997.0 3994.4 3991.5 3989.6
UT 6098.3 6091.5 6082.7 6078.6 6072.7 6066.7 6062.5 6057.5
6 Tropics
LT 4336.0 4335.3 4334.8 4334.1 4334.0 4332.5 4330.7 4330.0
UT 6543.4 6544.6 6545.2 6545.6 6545.4 6543.4 6541.0 6540.1

Table 12. Climatological value of lower and upper tropospheric thickness (meters) over the
whole globe and 5 climatic zones for 8 pentads of withdrawal phase of summer
monsoon across India.

Sr.
No
.
Region
Lower/
Upper
troposphere
Pentads of the withdrawal phase
P52 P53 P54 P55 P56 P57 P58 P59
1 Global
LT 4207.5 4205.6 4203.6 4201.5 4199.3 4198.0 4195.9 4194.5
UT 6365.0 6362.2 6359.2 6356.5 6354.6 6353.0 6349.8 6348.7
2
Northern
hemisphere (NH)
LT 4262.1 4256.1 4249.5 4242.8 4236.3 4230.0 4223.0 4216.7
UT 6438.5 6430.0 6421.1 6412.5 6404.4 6396.0 6385.1 6377.3
3
Southern
hemisphere (SH)
LT 4153.0 4155.4 4157.8 4160.4 4162.6 4166.1 4169.1 4172.6
UT 6292.0 6294.7 6297.5 6300.8 6305.0 6310.3 6314.8 6320.4
4 Extra tropical NH
LT 4176.3 4165.2 4153.5 4141.5 4129.7 4118.7 4106.4 4095.5
UT 6312.3 6298.5 6283.4 6269.0 6255.2 6240.9 6223.5 6210.6
5 Extra tropical SH
LT 3994.4 3997.3 4001.6 4006.0 4008.8 4014.1 4019.3 4024.9
UT 6071.5 6077.0 6083.1 6089.3 6096.1 6105.3 6114.0 6122.9
6 Tropics
LT 4329.8 4330.2 4329.8 4329.5 4329.6 4329.8 4329.2 4329.1
UT 6538.6 6537.0 6535.4 6534.2 6533.9 6533.2 6531.2 6531.1

35
Table 13. Percentage frequency of the onset date occurrence in five specified class interval (very
early, VE; moderately, ME; normal, N; moderately early, ME; and very late, VE), and the
root mean square error (RMSE) in the objectively determined onset date in different class
intervals for the 19 subregions.

Sub-
region
Very early (VE) Moderately early (ME) Normal (N) Moderately late (ML) Very late (VL)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
1 15.79 6.3 14.04 3.9 43.86 2.8 8.77 4.6 17.54 6.2
2 14.04 4.3 17.54 5.6 38.60 3.7 15.79 4.3 14.04 6.4
3 17.54 7.6 12.28 1.7 38.60 2.2 10.53 3.7 21.05 3.7
4 14.04 7.4 12.28 2.7 42.11 4.4 17.54 4.5 14.04 2.9
5 15.79 6.3 15.79 4.9 35.09 2.6 10.53 1.9 22.81 3.6
6 17.54 5.6 14.04 5.9 38.60 3.6 12.28 4.1 17.54 5.6
7 15.79 6.7 15.79 3.0 40.35 3.9 10.53 2.4 17.54 5.3
8 14.04 4.3 17.54 2.7 40.35 3.6 10.53 1.8 17.54 5.5
9 17.54 7.6 12.28 3.9 33.33 3.7 19.30 4.5 17.54 6.9
10 21.05 6.9 12.28 5.5 35.09 5.2 10.53 5.5 21.05 4.9
11 12.28 8.4 17.54 4.5 47.37 6.6 7.02 7.3 15.79 11.1
12 21.05 5.4 8.77 1.3 33.33 8.5 24.56 4.7 12.28 9.4
13 26.32 3.9 3.51 10.3 35.09 5.7 15.79 4.7 19.30 6.3
14 14.04 6.8 15.79 6.3 36.84 6.3 14.04 5.4 19.30 6.0
15 17.54 11.5 15.79 11.3 38.60 9.8 15.79 9.5 12.28 24.4
16 12.28 12.8 19.30 6.8 42.11 7.5 12.28 6.3 14.04 10.2
17 24.56 5.7 14.04 5.6 29.82 5.7 24.56 5.6 14.04 11.0
18 10.53 3.9 22.81 4.9 36.84 6.4 14.04 5.7 15.79 6.4
19 8.77 12.8 21.05 6.3 43.86 6.7 12.28 10.2 14.04 13.2
Mean
(All
India)
16.2 7.1 14.8 5.1 38.4 5.2 14 5.1 16.6 7.8

36
Table 14. The percentage frequency of occurrence of abrupt, gradual and feeble onset, and root
mean square error (RMSE) in determining the onset date different categories of the
onset for the 19 sub-regions.

Subregion
Abrupt Gradual Feeble
Freq.
(%age)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%age)
RMSE
(days
Freq.
(%age)
RMSE
(days
1 43.86 3.8 22.8 5.8 33.33 5.2
2 8.77 5.2 15.79 3.7 75.44 4.9
3 66.67 3.3 24.56 5.0 8.77 5.4
4 7.02 3.8 10.53 2.8 82.46 5.0
5 73.68 2.4 15.79 5.6 10.53 7.8
6 29.82 4.5 19.30 4.8 50.88 5.0
7 20.07 3.2 28.07 4.3 43.86 5.5
8 82.46 3.2 8.77 6.1 8.77 6.2
9 70.18 5.5 19.30 4.5 10.53 7.9
10 36.84 3.1 15.79 4.4 47.37 6.9
11 56.14 7.4 14.04 6.1 29.82 9.1
12 61.40 6.8 15.79 5.6 22.8 8.8
13 52.63 3.4 29.82 6.6 17.54 8.8
14 19.30 2.4 45.61 5.4 35.09 7.5
15 54.39 10.7 12.28 18.3 33.33 12.0
16 42.11 5.3 24.56 9.6 33.33 10.5
17 38.60 4.9 21.05 5.5 40.35 8.7
18 5.26 3.5 45.61 4.4 49.12 7.1
19 24.56 3.3 36.84 10.9 38.60 9.0
Total 41.8 4.5 22.4 6.3 35.4 7.4

37
Table 15. The percentage frequency of the withdrawal date occurrence in five specified class
interval (very early, VE; moderately, ME; normal, N; moderately early, ME; and very
late, VE), and the root mean square error (RMSE) in the objectively determined
withdrawal date in different class intervals for the 19 sub-regions.

Sub-
region
Very early (VE)
Moderately early
(ME)
Normal (N)
Moderately late
(ML)
Very late (VL)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
(%)
RMSE
(days)
1 17.5 8.8 40.4 17.5 15.8
2 14.0 15.8 35.1 19.3 15.8
3 17.5 7.9 15.8 5.8 35.1 7.6 19.3 3.6 12.3 7.5
4 19.3 5.8 8.8 9.5 40.4 3.9 15.8 2.0 15.8 7.6
5 10.5 12.0 15.8 5.3 49.1 4.2 12.3 5.9 12.3 6.3
6 12.3 9.8 22.8 5.0 38.6 5.0 10.5 7.2 15.8 6.9
7 17.5 19.0 10.5 12.7 35.1 3.7 21.1 8.3 15.8 10.8
8 22.8 9.1 12.3 11.0 31.6 3.8 17.5 5.5 15.8 7.9
9 17.5 7.3 12.3 11.5 38.6 5.3 12.3 5.7 19.3 6.8
10 12.3 9.6 21.1 4.3 40.4 3.9 5.3 7.3 21.1 3.7
11 12.3 10.6 21.1 4.9 31.6 3.2 14.0 1.2 21.1 6.9
12 17.5 8.2 21.1 6.7 28.1 5.4 12.3 3.8 21.1 7.2
13 17.5 4.7 17.5 5.1 35.1 6.8 12.3 5.1 17.5 10.8
14 21.1 5.7 10.5 5.3 38.6 4.5 17.5 4.3 12.3 16.0
15 17.5 13.0 10.5 7.8 38.6 9.2 21.1 11.9 12.3 18.1
16 8.8 6.8 17.5 5.7 49.1 9.0 10.5 6.9 14.0 5.6
17 10.5 6.5 28.1 5.8 24.6 5.3 19.3 3.9 17.5 10.2
18 17.5 13.1 8.8 5.3 40.4 5.3 17.5 5.7 15.8 5.8
19 15.8 14.3 5.3 8.9 54.4 9.5 7.0 8.4 17.5 13.0
Mean
(All
India)
15.8 9.6 15.0 7.1 38.1 5.6 14.9 5.7 16.3 8.9

38
Table 16. The percentage frequency of occurrence of abrupt, gradual and feeble withdrawal, and
root mean square error (RMSE) in determining withdrawal date different categories
for the 19 sub-regions.

Subregion
Abrupt Gradual Feeble
Freq.
(%age)
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
%age
RMSE
(days)
Freq.
%age
RMSE
(days)
1 15.8 - 17.5 - 66.7 -
2 12.3 - 17.5 - 70.2 -
3 26.3 4.7 22.8 8.0 50.9 5.9
4 7.0 6.5 21.1 6.8 71.9 5.6
5 31.6 4.5 21.1 6.0 47.4 6.7
6 24.6 7.1 7.0 7.3 68.4 5.7
7 17.5 11.3 17.5 4.4 64.9 13.2
8 38.6 6.2 15.8 3.8 45.6 9.2
9 29.8 2.4 17.5 11.4 52.6 6.9
10 22.8 3.6 10.5 10.6 66.7 4.8
11 50.9 3.8 7.0 7.5 42.1 6.8
12 43.9 7.1 14.0 3.1 42.1 6.5
13 36.8 6.9 5.3 57.9 6.5
14 40.4 5.3 10.5 11.5 49.1 5.1
15 35.1 16.6 12.3 9.2 52.6 9.9
16 35.1 9.1 14.0 4.4 50.9 6.9
17 45.6 6.4 17.5 7.6 36.8 5.9
18 21.1 5.3 12.3 12.2 66.7 6.1
19 38.6 6.3 21.1 11.0 40.4 13.0
Total 30.2 6.7 14.9 7.8 54.9 7.3

39
Table 17. Yearwise onset and withdrawal dates of southwest monsoon over the Subregion-1 as
determine by the objective criteria and that extracted from IMD charts.

Year Onset date Withdrawal date
IMD charts Objective criteria IMD charts Objective criteria
1951 5 J un 20 Oct
1952 5 J un 19 Oct
1953 10 J un 20 Oct
1954 5 J un 17 Oct
1955 29 May 27 Oct
1956 16 May 24 Oct
1957 7 J un 19 Oct
1958 21 May 26 Oct
1959 29 May 24 Oct
1960 14 May 25 May 31 Oct
1961 21 May 25 May 17 Oct
1962 17 May 26 May 15 Oct
1963 3 J un 6 J un 10 Oct
1964 6 J un 10 J un 22 Oct
1965 30 May 3 J un 27 Sep
1966 3 J un 6 J un 22 Oct
1967 13 J un 8 J un 6 Oct
1968 8 J un 15 J un 6 Oct
1969 25 May 1 J un 25 Sep
1970 27 May 29 May 16 Oct
1971 31 May 31 May 16 Oct
1972 19 J un 17 J un 15 Oct
1973 5 J un 5 J un 15 Oct
1974 29 May 1 J un 11 Oct
1975 31 May 29 May 28 Oct
1976 31 May 6 J un 26 Oct
1977 30 May 1 J un 24 Oct
1978 28 May 27 May 6 Oct
1979 11 J un 16 J un 3 Oct
1980 1 J un 5 J un 11 Oct
1981 30 May 2 J un 21 Oct
1982 29 May 11 J un 26 Sep
1983 12 J un 16 J un 16 Oct
1984 31 May 2 J un 7 Oct
1985 28 May 1 J un 11 Oct
1986 4 J un 10 J un 5 Oct
1987 2 J un 12 J un 21 Oct
1988 26 May 2 J un 8 Oct
1989 3 J un 1 J un 12 Oct
1990 19 May 25 May 22 Oct
1991 2 J un 6 J un 20 Oct
1992 5 J un 13 J un 18 Oct
1993 29 May 6 J un 22 Oct
1994 29 May 2 J un 17 Oct 12 Oct
1995 8 J un 5 J un 20 Oct
1996 3 J un 13 J un 16 Oct
1997 9 J un 19 J un 8 Oct 29 Sep
1998 2 J un 7 J un 20 Oct 24 Oct
1999 25 May 21 May 21 Oct 20 Oct
2000 1 J un 28 May 25 Oct 11 Oct
2001 24 May 27 May 25 Oct
2002 30 May 22 May 13 Oct
2003 8 J un 8 J un 13 Oct
2004 18 May 20 May 26 Oct
2005 5 J un 16 J un 14 Oct
2006 26 May 29 May 8 Oct
2007 28 May 3 J un 21 Oct
Mean 31 May (7) 3 June (8) 18 oct (6) 15 Oct (8)

40

1951 6 J un 3 Oct
1952 6 J un 18 Oct
1953 11 J un 19 Oct
1954 6 J un 17 Oct
1955 31 May 1 Nov
1956 17 May 27 Oct
1957 8 J un 21 Oct
1958 18 May 24 Oct
1959 31 May 26 Oct
1960 14 May 31 May 1 Nov
1961 21 May 26 May 15 Oct
1962 18 May 27 May 13 Oct
1963 3 J un 9 J un 7 Oct
1964 6 J un 11 J un 19 Oct
1965 30 May 4 J un 25 Sep
1966 5 J un 6 J un 14 Oct
1967 13 J un 9 J un 14 Oct
1968 8 J un 16 J un 4 Oct
1969 25 May 2 J un 20 Sep
1970 27 May 29 May 13 Oct
1971 31 May 1 J un 20 Oct
1972 19 J un 18 J un 15 Sep
1973 5 J un 3 J un 1 Oct
1974 29 May 2 J un 9 Oct
1975 31 May 30 May 28 Oct
1976 31 May 7 J un 20 Sep
1977 30 May 3 J un 24 Oct
1978 28 May 31 May 22 Oct
1979 11 J un 19 J un 1 Oct
1980 1 J un 7 J un 9 Oct
1981 30 May 30 May 21 Oct
1982 29 May 13 J un 25 Sep
1983 16 J un 14 J un 17 Oct
1984 4 J un 7 J un 4 Oct
1985 28 May 4 J un 8 Oct
1986 4 J un 10 J un 16 Oct
1987 3 J un 13 J un 20 Oct
1988 26 May 2 J un 5 Oct
1989 3 J un 3 J un 6 Oct
1990 20 May 25 May 20 Oct
1991 2 J un 9 J un 22 Oct
1992 5 J un 13 J un 13 Oct
1993 29 May 8 J un 3 Nov
1994 29 May 4 J un 17 Oct 19 Sep
1995 8 J un 6 J un 17 Oct
1996 3 J un 11 J un 15 Oct
1997 9 J un 21 J un 8 Oct 23 Sep
1998 2 J un 3 J un 20 Oct 31 Oct
1999 26 May 22 May 21 Oct 19 Oct
2000 1 J un 31 May 25 Oct 8 Oct
2001 24 May 24 May 10 Oct
2002 30 May 31 May 24 Sep
2003 8 J un 6 J un 3 Oct
2004 18 May 20 May 25 Oct
2005 6 J un 10 J un 14 Oct
2006 26 May 29 May 4 Oct
2007 29 May 9 J un 1 Oct
Mean 31 May (7) 4 Jun (8) 18 Oct (6) 12 Oct 12)

41


1951 8 J un 18 Oct
1952 9 J un 18 Oct
1953 17 J un 19 Oct
1954 8 J un 16 Oct
1955 3 J un 24 Oct
1956 21 May 25 Oct
1957 10 J un 19 Oct
1958 16 J un 25 Oct
1959 3 J un 21 Oct
1960 22 May 29 May 29 Oct
1961 21 May 28 May 18 Oct
1962 21 May 28 May 15 Oct
1963 4 J un 5 J un 11 Oct
1964 9 J un 15 J un 20 Oct
1965 6 J un 8 J un 29 Sep
1966 6 J un 14 J un 16 Oct
1967 13 J un 12 J un 7 Oct
1968 11 J un 18 J un 10 Oct
1969 28 May 4 J un 8 Oct
1970 28 May 1 J un 16 Oct
1971 31 May 3 J un 18 Oct
1972 19 J un 22 J un 6 Oct
1973 6 J un 7 J un 15 Oct
1974 1 J un 5 J un 15 Oct
1975 2 J un 3 J un 27 Oct 26 Oct
1976 1 J un 6 J un 12 Oct 8 Oct
1977 7 J un 10 J un 12 Oct 10 Oct
1978 29 May 31 May 15 Oct 20 Oct
1979 16 J un 18 J un 15 Oct 6 Oct
1980 4 J un 6 J un 6 Oct 11 Oct
1981 1 J un 4 J un 14 Oct 18 Oct
1982 1 J un 10 J un 11 Oct 1 Oct
1983 16 J un 17 J un 19 Oct 20 Oct
1984 4 J un 7 J un 3 Oct 7 Oct
1985 30 May 4 J un 24 Oct 14 Oct
1986 5 J un 14 J un 21 Oct 20 Oct
1987 4 J un 9 J un 24 Oct 18 Oct
1988 5 J un 9 J un 10 Oct 12 Oct
1989 4 J un 5 J un 13 Oct 11 Oct
1990 20 May 27 May 17 Oct 20 Oct
1991 4 J un 9 J un 12 Oct 15 Oct
1992 6 J un 17 J un 18 Oct 20 Oct
1993 4 J un 10 J un 19 Oct 20 Oct
1994 2 J un 4 J un 17 Oct 9 Oct
1995 10 J un 11 J un 18 Oct
1996 7 J un 14 J un 18 Oct
1997 11 J un 19 J un 8 Oct 27 Sep
1998 7 J un 11 J un 20 Oct 27 Oct
1999 1 J un 24 May 15 Oct 21 Oct
2000 3 J un 27 May 25 Oct 13 Oct
2001 6 J un 29 May 15 Oct 25 Oct
2002 3 J un 30 May 10 Oct
2003 11 J un 15 J un 14 Oct
2004 23 May 23 May 12 Oct
2005 7 J un 17 J un 16 Oct
2006 27 May 31 May 10 Oct
2007 8 J un 15 J un 21 Oct
Mean 3 Jun (7) 7 Jun (8) 15 Oct (6) 15 Oct (7)

42


1951 8 J un 3 Oct
1952 10 J un 12 Oct
1953 15 J un 8 Oct
1954 9 J un 12 Oct
1955 4 J un 13 Oct
1956 22 May 16 Oct
1957 12 J un 4 Oct
1958 2 J un 21 Oct
1959 7 J un 11 Oct
1960 22 May 8 J un 12 Oct
1961 21 May 29 May 14 Oct
1962 18 May 30 May 7 Oct
1963 5 J un 7 J un 6 Oct
1964 9 J un 16 J un 13 Oct
1965 6 J un 12 J un 26 Sep
1966 10 J un 10 J un 28 Sep
1967 13 J un 12 J un 2 Oct
1968 11 J un 18 J un 4 Oct
1969 28 May 4 J un 26 Sep
1970 28 May 2 J un 8 Oct
1971 31 May 3 J un 13 Oct
1972 19 J un 20 J un 28 Sep
1973 6 J un 6 J un 5 Oct
1974 1 J un 6 J un 13 Oct
1975 2 J un 5 J un 27 Oct 21 Oct
1976 1 J un 9 J un 12 Oct 26 Sep
1977 7 J un 11 J un 12 Oct 26 Sep
1978 29 May 5 J un 15 Oct 5 Oct
1979 16 J un 18 J un 15 Oct 2 Oct
1980 4 J un 8 J un 6 Oct 28 Sep
1981 1 J un 2 J un 14 Oct 4 Oct
1982 1 J un 15 J un 11 Oct 26 Sep
1983 16 J un 17 J un 19 Oct 12 Oct
1984 4 J un 12 J un 3 Oct 2 Oct
1985 4 J un 8 J un 24 Oct 9 Oct
1986 14 J un 9 J un 21 Oct 1 Oct
1987 10 J un 15 J un 24 Oct 2 Oct
1988 8 J un 7 J un 12 Oct 9 Oct
1989 4 J un 6 J un 13 Oct 4 Oct
1990 21 May 28 May 17 Oct 8 Oct
1991 4 J un 10 J un 16 Oct 3 Oct
1992 16 J un 20 J un 18 Oct 11 Oct
1993 4 J un 11 J un 9 Oct
1994 4 J un 10 J un 17 Oct 29 Sep
1995 10 J un 10 J un 8 Oct
1996 7 J un 14 J un 11 Oct
1997 11 J un 20 J un 8 Oct 26 Sep
1998 7 J un 13 J un 20 Oct 20 Oct
1999 5 J un 25 May 15 Oct 8 Oct
2000 3 J un 31 May 25 Oct 9 Oct
2001 6 J un 6 J un 15 Oct 14 Oct
2002 3 J un 3 J un 28 Sep
2003 15 J un 20 J un 9 Oct
2004 23 May 23 May 3 Oct
2005 8 J un 13 J un 7 Oct
2006 27 May 1 J un 5 Oct
2007 13 J un 11 J un 13 Oct

43

1951 10 J un 12 Oct
1952 12 J un 7 Oct
1953 18 J un 15 Oct
1954 12 J un 12 Oct
1955 9 J un 20 Oct
1956 28 May 18 Oct
1957 15 J un 8 Oct
1958 18 J un 21 Oct
1959 5 J un 15 Oct
1960 13 J un 5 J un 14 Oct
1961 25 May 1 J un 13 Oct
1962 27 May 2 J un 8 Oct
1963 6 J un 7 J un 7 Oct
1964 9 J un 20 J un 17 Oct
1965 10 J un 13 J un 27 Sep
1966 11 J un 13 J un 3 Oct
1967 18 J un 18 J un 4 Oct
1968 12 J un 21 J un 7 Oct
1969 2 J un 8 J un 30 Sep
1970 30 May 4 J un 12 Oct
1971 31 May 6 J un 12 Oct
1972 20 J un 23 J un 27 Sep
1973 7 J un 9 J un 7 Oct
1974 1 J un 10 J un 13 Oct
1975 7 J un 10 J un 16 Oct 21 Oct
1976 3 J un 11 J un 8 Oct 4 Oct
1977 10 J un 15 J un 12 Oct 5 Oct
1978 7 J un 6 J un 15 Oct 7 Oct
1979 19 J un 20 J un 6 Oct 5 Oct
1980 6 J un 10 J un 4 Oct 5 Oct
1981 5 J un 4 J un 12 Oct 12 Oct
1982 11 J un 11 J un 5 Oct 28 Sep
1983 18 J un 20 J un 14 Oct 13 Oct
1984 6 J un 10 J un 30 Sep 5 Oct
1985 4 J un 6 J un 17 Oct 12 Oct
1986 14 J un 16 J un 8 Oct 3 Oct
1987 8 J un 11 J un 9 Oct 6 Oct
1988 8 J un 14 J un 6 Oct 10 Oct
1990 20 May 31 May 15 Oct 11 Oct
1991 5 J un 12 J un 7 Oct 10 Oct
1992 17 J un 19 J un 15 Oct 9 Oct
1993 12 J un 13 J un 15 Oct 14 Oct
1994 4 J un 7 J un 16 Oct 3 Oct
1995 16 J un 18 J un 9 Oct 10 Oct
1996 9 J un 15 J un 7 Oct 16 Oct
1997 13 J un 20 J un 8 Oct 26 Sep
1998 12 J un 18 J un 20 Oct 23 Oct
1999 10 J un 1 J un 15 Oct 15 Oct
2000 5 J un 31 May 23 Oct 11 Oct
2001 8 J un 5 J un 15 Oct 16 Oct
2002 10 J un 13 J un 21 Oct 1 Oct
2003 15 J un 17 J un 13 Oct 8 Oct
2004 6 J un 9 J un 11 Oct 7 Oct
2005 18 J un 19 J un 10 Oct 11 Oct
2006 31 May 3 J un 16 Oct 9 Oct
2007 15 J un 16 J un 15 Oct 19 Oct

44

1951 11 J un 13 Oct
1952 14 J un 11 Oct
1953 19 J un 16 Oct
1954 14 J un 13 Oct
1955 9 J un 21 Oct
1956 28 May 19 Oct
1957 17 J un 8 Oct
1958 17 J un 23 Oct
1959 7 J un 15 Oct
1960 13 J un 8 J un 14 Oct
1961 28 May 4 J un 13 Oct
1962 28 May 7 J un 9 Oct
1963 6 J un 7 J un 7 Oct
1964 9 J un 22 J un 19 Oct
1965 10 J un 13 J un 28 Sep
1966 11 J un 19 J un 4 Oct
1967 13 J un 20 J un 5 Oct
1968 15 J un 23 J un 7 Oct
1969 2 J un 10 J un 2 Oct
1970 30 May 5 J un 14 Oct
1971 1 J un 8 J un 13 Oct
1972 20 J un 25 J un 29 Sep
1973 7 J un 13 J un 9 Oct
1974 7 J un 12 J un 13 Oct
1975 17 J un 13 J un 16 Oct 23 Oct
1976 4 J un 12 J un 6 Oct 5 Oct
1977 15 J un 16 J un 10 Oct 3 Oct
1978 7 J un 7 J un 15 Oct 11 Oct
1979 19 J un 21 J un 6 Oct 5 Oct
1980 6 J un 11 J un 4 Oct 6 Oct
1981 5 J un 6 J un 12 Oct 14 Oct
1982 11 J un 16 J un 5 Oct 30 Sep
1983 24 J un 21 J un 15 Oct 14 Oct
1984 6 J un 15 J un 30 Sep 6 Oct
1985 7 J un 10 J un 19 Oct 12 Oct
1986 14 J un 14 J un 9 Oct 12 Oct
1987 10 J un 16 J un 9 Oct 6 Oct
1988 9 J un 14 J un 6 Oct 11 Oct
1989 9 J un 10 J un 6 Oct 8 Oct
1990 31 May 1 J un 15 Oct 12 Oct
1991 6 J un 15 J un 12 Oct 12 Oct
1992 17 J un 22 J un 16 Oct 11 Oct
1993 13 J un 17 J un 19 Oct 13 Oct
1994 6 J un 14 J un 16 Oct 5 Oct
1995 16 J un 26 J un 22 Oct 13 Oct
1996 9 J un 15 J un 9 Oct 17 Oct
1997 13 J un 23 J un 8 Oct 27 Sep
1998 12 J un 19 J un 20 Oct 24 Oct
1999 10 J un 2 J un 15 Oct 18 Oct
2000 5 J un 4 J un 23 Oct 11 Oct
2001 8 J un 11 J un 15 Oct 19 Oct
2002 10 J un 5 J un 21 Oct 2 Oct
2003 15 J un 23 J un 13 Oct 11 Oct
2004 6 J un 4 J un 11 Oct 8 Oct
2005 21 J un 19 J un 10 Oct 12 Oct
2006 6 J un 4 J un 16 Oct 7 Oct
2007 14 J un 9 J un 15 Oct 20 Oct

45

1951 12 J un 4 Oct
1952 15 J un 4 Oct
1953 20 J un 13 Oct
1954 15 J un 16 Oct
1955 10 J un 19 Oct
1956 28 May 22 Oct
1957 18 J un 30 Sep
1958 16 J un 25 Oct
1959 10 J un 16 Oct
1960 13 J un 15 J un 12 Oct
1961 28 May 6 J un 19 Oct
1962 29 May 6 J un 17 Oct
1963 7 J un 10 J un 15 Oct
1964 10 J un 23 J un 6 Oct
1965 14 J un 16 J un 29 Sep
1966 13 J un 16 J un 20 Sep
1967 13 J un 22 J un 30 Sep
1968 15 J un 24 J un 8 Oct
1969 5 J un 12 J un 20 Sep
1970 30 May 6 J un 7 Oct
1971 1 J un 9 J un 13 Oct
1972 20 J un 25 J un 7 Oct
1973 8 J un 12 J un 14 Oct
1974 16 J un 15 J un 13 Oct
1975 17 J un 11 J un 27 Oct 21 Oct
1976 7 J un 14 J un 6 Oct 21 Sep
1977 15 J un 17 J un 10 Oct 3 Oct
1978 9 J un 14 J un 15 Oct 3 Oct
1979 19 J un 21 J un 6 Oct 5 Oct
1980 6 J un 10 J un 4 Oct 23 Sep
1981 5 J un 16 J un 12 Oct 2 Oct
1982 11 J un 17 J un 5 Oct 24 Sep
1983 24 J un 22 J un 19 Oct 12 Oct
1984 6 J un 12 J un 28 Sep 5 Sep
1985 7 J un 10 J un 19 Oct 10 Oct
1986 15 J un 14 J un 21 Oct 14 Sep
1987 12 J un 18 J un 13 Oct 25 Sep
1988 13 J un 12 J un 10 Oct 7 Oct
1989 9 J un 10 J un 13 Oct 1 Oct
1990 31 May 2 J un 16 Oct 18 Oct
1991 7 J un 16 J un 12 Oct 22 Oct
1992 18 J un 22 J un 16 Oct 11 Oct
1993 13 J un 15 J un 15 Oct
1994 9 J un 12 J un 17 Oct 18 Oct
1995 17 J un 17 J un 22 Oct 14 Oct
1996 10 J un 16 J un 10 Oct 17 Oct
1997 13 J un 23 J un 8 Oct 1 Oct
1998 14 J un 14 J un 20 Oct 28 Oct
1999 12 J un 1 J un 15 Oct 13 Oct
2000 5 J un 3 J un 23 Oct 27 Sep
2001 8 J un 4 J un 15 Oct 19 Sep
2002 10 J un 8 J un 21 Oct 13 Sep
2003 15 J un 18 J un 17 Oct
2004 10 J un 10 J un 11 Oct 7 Oct
2005 21 J un 23 J un 16 Oct
2006 6 J un 5 J un 16 Oct 30 Sep
2007 15 J un 16 J un 12 Oct

46

1951 14 J un 15 Sep
1952 15 J un 15 Sep
1953 21 J un 23 Sep
1954 17 J un 5 Oct
1955 19 J un 6 Oct
1956 30 May 7 Oct
1957 22 J un 25 Sep
1958 21 J un 8 Oct
1959 8 J un 13 Oct
1960 13 J un 13 J un 5 Oct
1961 8 J un 7 J un 11 Oct
1962 31 May 8 J un 28 Sep
1963 9 J un 12 J un 20 Sep
1964 11 J un 23 J un 30 Sep
1965 16 J un 15 J un 16 Sep
1966 13 J un 17 J un 17 Sep
1967 18 J un 21 J un 28 Sep
1968 15 J un 25 J un 1 Oct
1969 6 J un 13 J un 21 Sep
1970 3 J un 7 J un 26 Sep
1971 1 J un 10 J un 28 Sep
1972 21 J un 25 J un 15 Sep
1973 8 J un 12 J un 25 Sep
1974 28 J un 26 J un 7 Oct
1975 17 J un 18 J un 15 Oct 5 Oct
1976 3 J un 15 J un 1 Oct 22 Sep
1977 17 J un 17 J un 10 Oct 23 Sep
1978 9 J un 12 J un 9 Sep 22 Sep
1979 23 J un 22 J un 6 Oct 2 Oct
1980 6 J un 11 J un 25 Sep 21 Sep
1981 25 J un 24 J un 5 Oct 29 Sep
1982 17 J un 17 J un 30 Sep 24 Sep
1983 20 J un 23 J un 14 Oct 8 Oct
1984 12 J un 13 J un 25 Sep 20 Sep
1985 8 J un 10 J un 17 Oct 1 Oct
1986 15 J un 16 J un 8 Oct 20 Sep
1987 13 J un 13 J un 9 Oct 23 Sep
1988 9 J un 16 J un 30 Sep 5 Oct
1989 9 J un 10 J un 6 Oct 26 Sep
1990 4 J un 2 J un 15 Oct 9 Oct
1991 7 J un 17 J un 30 Sep 17 Sep
1992 19 J un 21 J un 15 Oct 19 Sep
1993 13 J un 14 J un 8 Oct 6 Oct
1994 10 J un 10 J un 1 Oct 19 Sep
1995 17 J un 28 J un 7 Oct 29 Sep
1996 12 J un 16 J un 7 Oct 27 Sep
1997 16 J un 23 J un 3 Oct 28 Sep
1998 15 J un 15 J un 7 Oct 14 Oct
1999 13 J un 12 J un 12 Oct 3 Oct
2000 7 J un 4 J un 29 Sep 18 Sep
2001 9 J un 11 J un 13 Oct 2 Oct
2002 12 J un 15 J un 30 Sep 16 Sep
2003 16 J un 17 J un 11 Oct 28 Sep
2004 10 J un 15 J un 8 Oct 3 Oct
2005 21 J un 21 J un 6 Oct 30 Sep
2007 18 J un 17 J un 12 Oct 3 Oct
Mean 12 Jun (6) 15 Jun (6) 5 Oct (8) 28 Sept (8)

47

1951 20 J un 25 Sep
1952 18 J un 28 Sep
1953 22 J un 2 Oct
1954 19 J un 4 Oct
1955 18 J un 10 Oct
1956 2 J un 10 Oct
1957 21 J un 28 Sep
1958 24 J un 15 Oct
1959 9 J un 9 Oct
1960 13 J un 12 J un 8 Oct
1961 4 J un 9 J un 11 Oct
1962 31 May 7 J un 28 Sep
1963 9 J un 11 J un 1 Oct
1964 13 J un 25 J un 7 Oct
1965 18 J un 18 J un 22 Sep
1966 14 J un 19 J un 20 Sep
1967 18 J un 23 J un 29 Sep
1968 15 J un 26 J un 30 Sep
1969 6 J un 20 J un 26 Sep
1970 3 J un 8 J un 29 Sep
1971 1 J un 11 J un 2 Oct
1972 22 J un 26 J un 20 Sep
1973 11 J un 14 J un 30 Sep
1974 18 J un 22 J un 9 Oct
1975 18 J un 16 J un 15 Oct 13 Oct
1976 7 J un 24 J un 1 Oct 23 Sep
1977 17 J un 19 J un 6 Oct 26 Sep
1978 15 J un 14 J un 9 Sep 25 Sep
1979 23 J un 23 J un 6 Oct 2 Oct
1980 6 J un 13 J un 30 Sep 25 Sep
1981 21 J un 21 J un 5 Oct 1 Oct
1982 15 J un 20 J un 30 Sep 23 Sep
1983 26 J un 24 J un 14 Oct 9 Oct
1984 12 J un 14 J un 26 Sep 1 Oct
1985 15 J un 9 J un 17 Oct 5 Oct
1986 16 J un 17 J un 9 Oct 26 Sep
1987 16 J un 15 J un 9 Oct 2 Oct
1988 13 J un 18 J un 30 Sep 7 Oct
1989 10 J un 11 J un 6 Oct 27 Sep
1990 5 J un 4 J un 15 Oct 8 Oct
1991 8 J un 19 J un 30 Sep 29 Sep
1992 19 J un 22 J un 15 Oct 29 Sep
1993 14 J un 17 J un 6 Oct 6 Oct
1994 10 J un 11 J un 1 Oct 25 Sep
1995 18 J un 21 J un 9 Oct 9 Oct
1996 13 J un 18 J un 8 Oct 5 Oct
1997 16 J un 25 J un 8 Oct 24 Sep
1998 15 J un 15 J un 9 Oct 16 Oct
1999 12 J un 11 J un 12 Oct 5 Oct
2000 6 J un 5 J un 13 Oct 27 Sep
2001 9 J un 10 J un 13 Oct 6 Oct
2002 12 J un 20 J un 3 Oct 19 Sep
2003 17 J un 22 J un 11 Oct 1 Oct
2004 15 J un 14 J un 11 Oct 2 Oct
2005 24 J un 24 J un 7 Oct 5 Oct
2006 23 J un 8 J un 13 Oct 4 Oct
2007 18 J un 14 J un 12 Oct 4 Oct

48

1951 23 J un 29 Sep
1952 18 J un 28 Sep
1953 22 J un 27 Sep
1954 20 J un 2 Oct
1955 14 J un 9 Oct
1956 3 J un 7 Oct
1957 25 J un 27 Sep
1958 23 J un 14 Oct
1959 14 J un 11 Oct
1960 16 J un 16 J un 7 Oct
1961 4 J un 10 J un 9 Oct
1962 9 J un 11 J un 29 Sep
1963 11 J un 14 J un 26 Sep
1964 18 J un 25 J un 3 Oct
1965 20 J un 17 J un 23 Sep
1966 14 J un 19 J un 18 Sep
1967 18 J un 24 J un 29 Sep
1968 15 J un 27 J un 30 Sep
1969 6 J un 16 J un 26 Sep
1970 4 J un 11 J un 25 Sep
1971 3 J un 12 J un 27 Sep
1972 23 J un 27 J un 28 Sep
1973 12 J un 15 J un 7 Oct
1974 17 J un 24 J un 29 Sep
1975 18 J un 15 J un 27 Oct 5 Oct
1976 28 J un 18 J un 6 Oct 25 Sep
1977 17 J un 19 J un 10 Oct 24 Sep
1978 17 J un 13 J un 12 Oct 30 Sep
1979 23 J un 24 J un 6 Oct 28 Sep
1980 16 J un 17 J un 4 Oct 27 Sep
1981 21 J un 20 J un 5 Oct 28 Sep
1982 14 J un 20 J un 30 Sep 22 Sep
1983 24 J un 25 J un 17 Oct 7 Oct
1984 10 J un 10 J un 26 Sep 16 Sep
1985 20 J un 14 J un 19 Oct 3 Oct
1986 16 J un 19 J un 20 Oct 2 Oct
1987 13 J un 22 J un 9 Oct 26 Sep
1988 11 J un 12 J un 10 Oct 3 Oct
1989 13 J un 10 J un 13 Oct 27 Sep
1990 13 J un 5 J un 16 Oct 5 Oct
1991 6 J un 19 J un 7 Oct 26 Sep
1992 18 J un 24 J un 15 Oct 22 Sep
1993 15 J un 22 J un 6 Oct 2 Oct
1994 11 J un 15 J un 15 Oct 25 Sep
1995 18 J un 21 J un 12 Oct 1 Oct
1996 19 J un 20 J un 8 Oct 22 Sep
1997 18 J un 25 J un 8 Oct 24 Sep
1998 14 J un 16 J un 9 Oct 2 Oct
1999 12 J un 9 J un 12 Oct 2 Oct
2000 6 J un 7 J un 13 Oct 27 Sep
2001 9 J un 11 J un 13 Oct 1 Oct
2002 12 J un 21 J un 17 Oct 22 Sep
2003 20 J un 20 J un 13 Oct 9 Oct
2004 13 J un 5 J un 11 Oct 3 Oct
2005 24 J un 21 J un 10 Oct 29 Sep
2006 23 J un 10 J un 13 Oct 6 Oct
2007 18 J un 15 J un 15 Oct 5 Oct

49

1951 27 J un 2 Sep
1952 1 J ul 1 Sep
1953 29 J un 12 Sep
1954 28 J un 2 Oct
1955 27 J un 28 Sep
1956 26 J un 30 Sep
1957 28 J un 13 Sep
1958 27 J un 9 Oct
1959 26 J un 12 Oct
1960 15 J un 23 J un 26 Sep
1961 10 J un 23 J un 4 Oct
1962 24 J un 7 J ul 24 Sep
1963 15 J un 26 J un 17 Sep
1964 24 J un 29 J un 24 Sep
1965 4 J ul 10 J ul 11 Sep
1966 20 J un 26 J un 14 Sep
1967 18 J un 27 J un 19 Sep
1968 5 J ul 4 J ul 21 Sep
1969 7 J un 30 J un 18 Sep
1970 23 J un 15 J un 26 Sep
1971 2 J un 18 J un 23 Sep
1972 22 J un 1 J ul 30 Aug
1973 13 J un 21 J un 21 Sep
1974 2 J ul 6 J ul 27 Sep
1975 20 J un 23 J un 11 Oct 6 Oct
1976 7 J un 27 J un 25 Sep 21 Sep
1977 22 J un 24 J un 30 Sep 20 Sep
1978 17 J un 20 J un 18 Sep 15 Sep
1979 26 J un 27 J un 29 Sep 13 Sep
1980 22 J un 21 J un 23 Sep 13 Sep
1981 27 J un 27 J un 3 Oct 28 Sep
1982 12 J ul 11 J ul 15 Sep 9 Sep
1983 26 J un 30 J un 5 Oct 6 Oct
1984 18 J un 22 J un 24 Sep 18 Sep
1985 14 J ul 12 J ul 19 Sep 13 Sep
1986 21 J un 21 J un 22 Sep 6 Sep
1987 7 J ul 1 J ul 21 Sep 12 Sep
1988 22 J un 2 J ul 30 Sep 2 Oct
1989 13 J un 15 J un 2 Oct 21 Sep
1990 30 J un 27 J un 6 Oct 30 Sep
1991 10 J un 12 J ul 21 Sep 12 Sep
1992 21 J un 9 J ul 22 Sep 16 Sep
1993 16 J un 26 J un 29 Sep 1 Oct
1994 12 J un 16 J un 21 Sep 19 Sep
1995 12 J ul 12 J ul 21 Sep 16 Sep
1996 15 J un 21 J un 22 Sep 15 Sep
1997 20 J un 30 J un 22 Sep 22 Sep
1998 26 J un 27 J un 30 Sep 8 Oct
1999 19 J un 11 J un 7 Oct 3 Oct
2000 30 J un 30 J un 23 Sep 13 Sep
2001 12 J un 14 J un 24 Sep 4 Sep
2002 25 J un 26 J un 20 Sep 12 Sep
2003 18 J un 26 J un 1 Oct 25 Sep
2004 16 J un 17 J un 3 Oct 28 Sep
2005 26 J un 25 J un 1 Oct 28 Sep
2006 27 J un 25 J un 3 Oct 3 Oct
2007 24 J un 22 J un 2 Oct 2 Oct
Mean 21 Jun (9) 26 Jun (7) 26 Sept (6) 21 Sept (10)

50

1951 24 J un 13 Sep
1952 27 J un 12 Sep
1953 27 J un 19 Sep
1954 26 J un 30 Sep
1955 22 J un 4 Oct
1956 17 J un 2 Oct
1957 26 J un 22 Sep
1958 26 J un 7 Oct
1959 14 J un 7 Oct
1960 18 J un 22 J un 3 Oct
1961 9 J un 14 J un 8 Oct
1962 12 J un 6 J ul 26 Sep
1963 16 J un 16 J un 20 Sep
1964 24 J un 28 J un 27 Sep
1965 3 J ul 1 J ul 17 Sep
1966 18 J un 24 J un 14 Sep
1967 18 J un 26 J un 23 Sep
1968 5 J ul 1 J ul 26 Sep
1969 4 J ul 29 J un 23 Sep
1970 14 J un 13 J un 23 Sep
1971 3 J un 16 J un 27 Sep
1972 23 J un 30 J un 15 Sep
1973 13 J un 25 J un 23 Sep
1974 29 J un 3 J ul 5 Sep
1975 20 J un 21 J un 13 Oct 3 Oct
1976 7 J un 25 J un 25 Sep 21 Sep
1977 22 J un 23 J un 6 Oct 22 Sep
1978 17 J un 19 J un 4 Oct 14 Sep
1979 25 J un 26 J un 29 Sep 19 Sep
1980 21 J un 16 J un 25 Sep 17 Sep
1981 25 J un 23 J un 3 Oct 26 Sep
1982 12 J ul 21 J un 20 Sep 19 Sep
1983 28 J un 28 J un 13 Oct 4 Oct
1984 14 J un 15 J un 25 Sep 14 Sep
1985 28 J un 25 J un 27 Sep 4 Oct
1986 21 J un 21 J un 8 Oct 18 Sep
1987 16 J un 25 J un 25 Sep 24 Sep
1988 22 J un 24 J un 30 Sep 2 Oct
1989 14 J un 18 J un 5 Oct 17 Sep
1990 20 J un 15 J un 13 Oct 30 Sep
1991 8 J un 23 J un 24 Sep 15 Sep
1992 23 J un 1 J ul 22 Sep 18 Sep
1993 16 J un 18 J un 1 Oct 1 Oct
1994 13 J un 14 J un 23 Sep 18 Sep
1995 19 J un 27 J un 30 Sep 18 Sep
1996 18 J un 28 J un 7 Oct 21 Sep
1997 18 J un 28 J un 3 Oct 20 Sep
1998 16 J un 26 J un 5 Oct 30 Sep
1999 16 J un 17 J un 7 Oct 30 Sep
2000 8 J un 10 J un 27 Sep 16 Sep
2001 13 J un 10 J un 27 Sep 8 Sep
2002 22 J un 21 J un 30 Sep 16 Sep
2003 19 J un 24 J un 3 Oct 28 Sep
2004 17 J un 16 J un 3 Oct 29 Sep
2005 24 J un 25 J un 3 Oct 26 Sep
2006 29 J un 28 J un 9 Oct 5 Oct
2007 25 J un 20 J un 8 Oct 1 Oct

51

1951 20 J un 25 Sep
1952 24 J un 29 Sep
1953 26 J un 30 Sep
1954 24 J un 4 Oct
1955 26 J un 11 Oct
1956 11 J un 14 Oct
1957 28 J un 29 Sep
1958 27 J un 19 Oct
1959 13 J un 14 Oct
1960 21 J un 24 J un 8 Oct
1961 8 J un 13 J un 14 Oct
1962 9 J un 21 J un 5 Oct
1963 15 J un 15 J un 12 Oct
1964 22 J un 27 J un 8 Oct
1965 28 J un 27 J un 28 Sep
1966 17 J un 22 J un 19 Sep
1967 18 J un 29 J un 27 Sep
1968 17 J un 30 J un 5 Oct
1969 1 J ul 21 J un 27 Sep
1970 10 J un 12 J un 1 Oct
1971 5 J un 15 J un 6 Oct
1972 24 J un 4 J ul 2 Oct
1973 14 J un 24 J un 8 Oct
1974 18 J un 1 J ul 11 Oct
1975 19 J un 24 J un 14 Oct 12 Oct
1976 28 J un 29 J un 3 Oct 28 Sep
1977 20 J un 22 J un 10 Oct 3 Oct
1978 20 J un 22 J un 12 Oct 30 Sep
1979 25 J un 28 J un 6 Oct 4 Oct
1980 19 J un 18 J un 27 Sep 29 Sep
1981 23 J un 22 J un 5 Oct 30 Sep
1982 15 J un 19 J un 30 Sep 22 Sep
1983 28 J un 27 J un 14 Oct 10 Oct
1984 10 J un 15 J un 25 Sep 19 Sep
1985 26 J un 26 J un 19 Oct 9 Oct
1986 21 J un 23 J un 9 Oct 6 Oct
1987 5 J ul 3 J ul 27 Sep 8 Oct
1988 17 J un 13 J un 7 Oct 4 Oct
1989 15 J un 15 J un 5 Oct 29 Sep
1990 15 J un 15 J un 16 Oct 7 Oct
1991 8 J un 22 J un 30 Sep 29 Sep
1992 20 J un 30 J un 3 Oct 28 Sep
1993 23 J un 21 J un 4 Oct 6 Oct
1994 12 J un 14 J un 19 Sep 4 Oct
1995 18 J un 26 J un 4 Oct 30 Sep
1996 22 J un 21 J un 8 Oct 4 Oct
1997 22 J un 28 J un 3 Oct 7 Oct
1998 15 J un 26 J un 5 Oct 24 Oct
1999 14 J un 12 J un 11 Oct 7 Oct
2000 7 J un 15 J un 29 Sep 27 Sep
2001 13 J un 14 J un 13 Oct 6 Oct
2002 20 J un 21 J un 3 Oct 29 Sep
2003 23 J un 24 J un 11 Oct 13 Oct
2004 15 J un 15 J un 8 Oct 7 Oct
2005 24 J un 28 J un 5 Oct 11 Oct
2006 27 J un 16 J un 9 Oct 8 Oct
2007 25 J un 20 J un 10 Oct 8 Oct

52

1951 15 J un 1 Oct
1952 15 J un 2 Oct
1953 21 J un 2 Oct
1954 17 J un 8 Oct
1955 13 J un 14 Oct
1956 30 May 17 Oct
1957 22 J un 7 Oct
1958 21 J un 21 Oct
1959 11 J un 18 Oct
1960 18 J un 9 J un 10 Oct
1961 8 J un 8 J un 15 Oct
1962 1 J un 12 J un 6 Oct
1963 10 J un 9 J un 13 Oct
1964 17 J un 23 J un 9 Oct
1965 23 J un 15 J un 30 Sep
1966 13 J un 18 J un 29 Sep
1967 13 J un 21 J un 2 Oct
1968 11 J un 25 J un 8 Oct
1969 5 J un 13 J un 30 Sep
1970 3 J un 9 J un 6 Oct
1971 3 J un 10 J un 9 Oct
1972 22 J un 25 J un 4 Oct
1973 13 J un 12 J un 6 Oct
1974 7 J un 16 J un 11 Oct
1975 19 J un 12 J un 26 Oct 14 Oct
1976 9 J un 15 J un 10 Oct 3 Oct
1977 15 J un 18 J un 10 Oct 4 Oct
1978 17 J un 10 J un 12 Oct 6 Oct
1979 12 J un 22 J un 6 Oct 7 Oct
1980 8 J un 11 J un 4 Oct 9 Oct
1981 21 J un 16 J un 5 Oct 1 Oct
1982 11 J un 16 J un 30 Sep 25 Sep
1983 26 J un 23 J un 17 Oct 13 Oct
1984 6 J un 7 J un 25 Sep 1 Oct
1985 15 J un 12 J un 19 Oct 14 Oct
1986 20 J un 19 J un 16 Oct 8 Oct
1987 8 J un 20 J un 9 Oct 5 Oct
1988 9 J un 12 J un 10 Oct 9 Oct
1989 14 J un 8 J un 6 Oct 7 Oct
1990 15 J un 2 J un 16 Oct 10 Oct
1991 8 J un 17 J un 3 Oct 5 Oct
1992 18 J un 22 J un 15 Oct 7 Oct
1993 16 J un 17 J un 6 Oct 13 Oct
1994 10 J un 13 J un 29 Sep 4 Oct
1995 18 J un 19 J un 4 Oct 5 Oct
1996 8 J un 18 J un 8 Oct 8 Oct
1997 22 J un 23 J un 5 Oct 1 Oct
1998 15 J un 15 J un 6 Oct 25 Oct
1999 28 May 30 May 11 Oct 14 Oct
2001 4 J un 4 J un 13 Oct 11 Oct
2002 11 J un 12 J un 10 Oct 30 Sep
2003 20 J un 18 J un 11 Oct 13 Oct
2004 13 J un 6 J un 11 Oct 10 Oct
2005 23 J un 19 J un 7 Oct 13 Oct
2006 6 J un 6 J un 9 Oct 12 Oct
2007 13 J un 12 J un 12 Oct 12 Oct

53

1951 26 J ul 26 Aug
1952 24 J ul 27 Aug
1953 30 J ul 8 Sep
1954 19 J ul 25 Sep
1955 13 Aug 18 Sep
1956 6 Aug 21 Sep
1957 15 J ul 8 Sep
1958 7 J ul 25 Sep
1959 2 J ul 22 Sep
1960 27 J un 22 J ul 4 Sep
1961 21 J un 14 J ul 18 Sep
1962 5 J ul 21 J ul 12 Sep
1963 14 J ul 4 Aug 15 Sep
1964 6 J ul 8 J ul 14 Sep
1965 17 J ul 20 J ul 1 Sep
1966 6 J ul 25 J ul 16 Sep
1967 2 J ul 6 J ul 14 Sep
1968 9 J ul 28 J ul 20 Aug
1969 15 J ul 23 J ul 2 Sep
1970 3 J ul 6 J ul 21 Sep
1971 2 J ul 28 J ul 6 Sep
1972 29 J un 9 J ul 27 Aug
1973 5 J ul 27 J ul 8 Sep
1974 12 J ul 9 Aug 25 Aug
1975 30 J un 10 Aug 23 Sep 24 Sep
1976 15 J ul 17 J ul 19 Sep 16 Sep
1977 29 J un 4 J ul 23 Sep 16 Sep
1978 3 J ul 3 J ul 11 Sep 9 Sep
1979 15 J ul 29 J ul 16 Sep 24 Aug
1980 26 J un 25 J un 15 Sep 9 Sep
1981 10 J ul 12 J ul 3 Sep 22 Sep
1982 22 J ul 22 J ul 3 Sep 5 Sep
1983 18 J ul 13 J ul 13 Sep 19 Sep
1984 2 J ul 20 J ul 22 Sep 15 Sep
1985 14 J ul 17 J ul 11 Sep 3 Sep
1986 24 J ul 28 J ul 17 Sep 31 Aug
1987 15 J ul 28 Aug 12 Sep 8 Sep
1988 30 J un 16 J ul 12 Sep 20 Sep
1989 2 J ul 20 J ul 14 Sep 15 Sep
1990 1 J ul 7 J ul 27 Sep 22 Sep
1991 16 J ul 26 J ul 18 Sep 10 Sep
1992 12 J ul 20 J ul 17 Sep 15 Sep
1993 27 J un 8 J ul 21 Sep 14 Sep
1994 30 J un 1 J ul 19 Sep 17 Sep
1995 13 J ul 16 J ul 15 Sep 12 Sep
1996 24 J un 15 J ul 17 Oct 8 Sep
1997 12 J ul 17 J ul 18 Sep 4 Oct
1998 29 J un 1 J ul 7 Sep 28 Sep
1999 12 J ul 22 J ul 21 Sep 30 Sep
2000 2 J ul 13 J ul 15 Sep 4 Sep
2001 24 J un 27 J un 14 Sep 29 Aug
2002 15 J ul 24 Aug 16 Sep 7 Sep
2003 5 J ul 7 J ul 19 Sep 10 Sep
2004 8 J ul 4 J ul 24 Sep 5 Sep
2005 29 J un 4 J ul 28 Sep 22 Sep
2006 20 J ul 5 J ul 25 Sep 30 Sep
2007 30 J un 27 J un 30 Sep 21 Sep
Mean 6 Jul (8) 18 Jul (14) 18 Sept (8) 12 Sept (10)

54

1951 30 J un 1 Sep
1952 8 J ul 3 Sep
1953 5 J ul 4 Sep
1954 7 J ul 19 Sep
1955 30 J un 11 Sep
1956 3 J ul 3 Sep
1957 10 J ul 7 Sep
1958 3 J ul 8 Sep
1959 5 J ul 21 Sep
1960 23 J un 3 J ul 8 Sep
1961 9 J un 2 J ul 20 Sep
1962 24 J un 15 J ul 5 Sep
1963 25 J un 3 J ul 4 Sep
1964 1 J ul 5 J ul 9 Sep
1965 4 J ul 9 J ul 3 Sep
1966 20 J un 11 J ul 5 Sep
1967 26 J un 1 J ul 9 Sep
1968 5 J ul 7 J ul 31 Aug
1969 8 J ul 12 J ul 6 Sep
1970 29 J un 22 J un 12 Sep
1971 23 J un 26 J un 2 Sep
1972 25 J un 6 J ul 27 Aug
1973 30 J un 2 J ul 4 Sep
1974 11 J ul 25 J ul 26 Aug
1975 21 J un 28 J un 8 Oct 11 Sep
1976 11 J ul 3 J ul 22 Sep 7 Sep
1977 27 J un 30 J un 26 Sep 3 Sep
1978 23 J un 26 J un 26 Sep 2 Sep
1979 30 J un 4 J ul 21 Sep 23 Aug
1980 21 J un 22 J un 13 Sep 30 Aug
1981 25 J un 2 J ul 11 Sep 4 Sep
1982 14 J ul 16 J ul 15 Sep 5 Sep
1983 28 J un 7 J ul 1 Oct 16 Sep
1984 18 J un 20 J un 22 Sep 4 Sep
1985 8 J ul 7 J ul 27 Sep 8 Sep
1986 24 J un 30 J un 18 Sep 3 Sep
1987 7 J ul 13 J ul 25 Sep 2 Sep
1988 23 J un 30 J un 30 Sep 7 Sep
1989 1 J ul 28 J un 2 Oct 2 Sep
1990 28 J un 29 J un 1 Oct 12 Sep
1991 14 J ul 6 J ul 21 Sep 5 Sep
1992 3 J ul 14 J ul 22 Sep 7 Sep
1993 24 J un 2 J ul 28 Sep 2 Sep
1994 25 J un 27 J un 21 Sep 10 Sep
1995 10 J ul 1 J ul 29 Sep 5 Sep
1996 23 J un 25 J un 24 Oct 3 Sep
1997 7 J ul 5 J ul 28 Sep 2 Sep
1998 16 J un 29 J un 28 Sep 5 Sep
1999 22 J un 8 J ul 26 Sep 6 Sep
2000 23 J un 29 J un 23 Sep 5 Sep
2001 23 J un 19 J un 24 Sep 29 Aug
2002 15 J ul 25 J un 26 Sep 1 Sep
2003 27 J un 2 J ul 29 Sep 11 Sep
2004 5 J ul 20 J un 27 Sep 4 Sep
2005 27 J un 29 J un 29 Sep 7 Sep
2006 10 J ul 26 J un 27 Sep 17 Sep
2007 28 J un 27 J un 2 Oct 13 Sep
Mean 28 Jun (8) 2 Jul (7) 26 Sept (8) 6 Sept (6)

55

1951 21 J un 15 Sep
1952 27 J un 20 Sep
1953 27 J un 29 Sep
1954 26 J un 3 Oct
1955 22 J un 4 Oct
1956 17 J un 10 Oct
1957 27 J un 23 Sep
1958 29 J un 11 Oct
1959 14 J un 11 Oct
1960 18 J un 27 J un 8 Oct
1961 8 J un 15 J un 12 Oct
1962 9 J un 3 J ul 3 Oct
1963 17 J un 16 J un 29 Sep
1964 22 J un 28 J un 28 Sep
1965 28 J un 29 J un 27 Sep
1966 19 J un 24 J un 16 Sep
1967 25 J un 26 J un 26 Sep
1968 17 J un 1 J ul 5 Oct
1969 1 J ul 23 J un 27 Sep
1970 10 J un 13 J un 3 Oct
1971 6 J un 16 J un 3 Oct
1972 24 J un 6 J ul 23 Sep
1973 14 J un 19 J un 1 Oct
1974 28 J un 3 J ul 23 Sep
1975 20 J un 21 J un 13 Oct 2 Oct
1976 8 J ul 29 J un 3 Oct 27 Sep
1977 20 J un 8 J ul 6 Oct 2 Oct
1978 23 J un 24 J un 9 Oct 24 Sep
1979 26 J un 29 J un 21 Sep 26 Sep
1980 19 J un 19 J un 27 Sep 25 Sep
1981 23 J un 28 J un 3 Oct 30 Sep
1982 15 J un 18 J un 16 Sep 21 Sep
1983 28 J un 1 J ul 5 Oct 11 Oct
1984 12 J un 13 J un 25 Sep 17 Sep
1985 28 J un 27 J un 27 Sep 8 Oct
1986 23 J un 25 J un 8 Oct 3 Oct
1987 7 J ul 2 J ul 27 Sep 11 Oct
1988 17 J un 20 J un 7 Oct 3 Oct
1989 21 J un 15 J un 4 Oct 26 Sep
1990 19 J un 21 J un 13 Oct 30 Sep
1991 10 J un 23 J un 30 Sep 23 Sep
1992 26 J un 5 J ul 3 Oct 5 Oct
1993 23 J un 21 J un 4 Oct 1 Oct
1994 11 J un 26 J un 23 Sep 24 Sep
1995 18 J un 25 J un 30 Sep 25 Sep
1996 22 J un 25 J un 7 Oct 1 Oct
1997 24 J un 28 J un 3 Oct 26 Sep
1998 16 J un 29 J un 5 Oct 4 Oct
1999 14 J un 12 J un 7 Oct 8 Oct
2000 8 J un 10 J un 27 Sep 23 Sep
2001 17 J un 10 J un 27 Sep 28 Sep
2002 22 J un 22 J un 3 Oct 24 Sep
2003 25 J un 24 J un 3 Oct 28 Sep
2004 15 J un 18 J un 8 Oct 5 Oct
2005 24 J un 29 J un 5 Oct 8 Oct
2006 27 J un 18 J un 3 Oct 7 Oct
2007 25 J un 20 J un 2 Oct 6 Oct

56

1951 10 J un 2 Oct
1952 10 J un 26 Sep
1953 14 J un 5 Oct
1954 9 J un 20 Sep
1955 5 J un 2 Oct
1956 20 May 25 Sep
1957 16 J un 12 Oct
1958 22 May 21 Oct
1959 8 J un 19 Sep
1960 31 May 3 J un 4 Oct
1961 31 May 30 May 9 Oct
1962 27 May 8 J un 19 Sep
1963 9 J un 4 J un 9 Oct
1964 11 J un 16 J un 13 Oct
1965 6 J un 8 J un 2 Oct
1966 5 J un 10 J un 1 Oct
1967 13 J un 12 J un 6 Oct
1968 10 J un 18 J un 10 Oct
1969 4 J un 4 J un 19 Sep
1970 2 J un 4 J un 6 Oct
1971 1 J un 4 J un 9 Oct
1972 13 J un 20 J un 2 Oct
1973 12 J un 5 J un 8 Oct
1974 1 J un 6 J un 10 Oct
1975 30 May 7 J un 25 Oct 16 Oct
1976 9 J un 8 J un 12 Oct 5 Oct
1977 7 J un 9 J un 20 Oct 7 Oct
1978 9 J un 1 J un 12 Oct 6 Sep
1979 12 J un 18 J un 15 Oct 10 Oct
1981 17 J un 6 J un 12 Oct 29 Sep
1982 11 J un 13 J un 9 Oct 3 Oct
1983 18 J un 17 J un 19 Oct 5 Oct
1984 6 J un 3 J un 26 Sep 3 Oct
1985 4 J un 1 J un 21 Oct 2 Oct
1986 16 J un 12 J un 21 Oct 9 Oct
1987 5 J un 14 J un 13 Oct 8 Oct
1988 30 May 28 May 10 Oct 9 Oct
1989 6 J un 2 J un 13 Oct 7 Oct
1990 4 J un 31 May 17 Oct 5 Oct
1991 2 J un 10 J un 18 Oct 12 Oct
1992 13 J un 20 J un 18 Oct 12 Oct
1993 31 May 7 J un 19 Oct 12 Oct
1994 3 J un 5 J un 15 Oct 5 Oct
1995 5 J un 10 J un 10 Oct 4 Oct
1996 31 May 16 J un 10 Oct 4 Oct
1997 9 J un 15 J un 5 Oct 1 Oct
1998 1 J un 12 J un 7 Oct 30 Sep
1999 26 May 27 May 12 Oct 13 Oct
2000 2 J un 1 J un 13 Oct 4 Oct
2001 1 J un 2 J un 13 Oct 13 Oct
2002 6 J un 9 J un 17 Oct 30 Sep
2003 5 J un 12 J un 13 Oct 11 Oct
2004 21 May 5 J un 11 Oct 11 Oct
2005 16 J un 13 J un 10 Oct 8 Oct
2006 27 May 1 J un 16 Oct 7 Oct
2007 8 J un 3 J un 15 Oct 28 Sep

57

1951 28 J ul 11 Sep
1952 11 J ul 7 Sep
1953 8 J ul 15 Sep
1954 14 J ul 1 Oct
1955 2 J ul 27 Aug
1956 4 J ul 27 Sep
1957 13 J ul 19 Sep
1958 7 J ul 30 Sep
1959 1 J ul 3 Oct
1960 28 J un 1 J ul 22 Sep
1961 9 J un 3 J ul 29 Sep
1962 14 J un 16 J ul 22 Sep
1963 7 J ul 21 J ul 18 Sep
1964 1 J ul 4 J ul 23 Sep
1965 4 J ul 7 J ul 9 Sep
1966 20 J un 13 J ul 18 Sep
1967 27 J un 2 J ul 20 Sep
1968 9 J ul 8 J ul 21 Sep
1969 12 J ul 14 J ul 18 Sep
1970 30 J un 23 J un 23 Sep
1971 23 J un 28 J un 11 Sep
1972 27 J un 7 J ul 7 Sep
1973 5 J ul 3 J ul 18 Sep
1974 12 J ul 26 J ul 10 Sep
1975 23 J un 29 J un 25 Sep 19 Sep
1976 11 J ul 3 J ul 19 Sep 20 Sep
1977 29 J un 1 J ul 23 Sep 23 Sep
1978 25 J un 28 J un 18 Sep 15 Sep
1979 11 J ul 8 J ul 21 Sep 5 Sep
1980 26 J un 3 J ul 15 Sep 21 Sep
1981 27 J un 4 J ul 3 Sep 16 Sep
1982 16 J ul 22 J ul 3 Sep 13 Sep
1983 29 J un 8 J ul 20 Sep 29 Sep
1984 2 J ul 19 J un 15 Sep 25 Aug
1985 12 J ul 5 J ul 11 Sep 1 Oct
1986 25 J un 30 J un 17 Sep 24 Sep
1987 8 J ul 22 J ul 21 Sep 18 Sep
1988 23 J un 2 J ul 12 Sep 24 Sep
1989 29 J un 11 J ul 27 Sep 16 Sep
1990 30 J un 3 J ul 28 Sep 22 Sep
1991 14 J ul 13 J ul 18 Sep 16 Sep
1992 29 J un 19 J ul 20 Sep 15 Sep
1993 24 J un 7 J ul 21 Sep 21 Sep
1994 26 J un 2 J ul 21 Sep 17 Sep
1995 10 J ul 1 J ul 20 Sep 15 Sep
1996 25 J un 28 J un 21 Oct 15 Sep
1997 29 J un 7 J ul 23 Sep 5 Oct
1998 18 J un 28 J un 28 Sep 3 Oct
1999 5 J ul 15 J ul 26 Sep 22 Sep
2000 23 J un 30 J un 23 Sep 17 Sep
2001 22 J un 20 J un 20 Sep 10 Sep
2002 4 J ul 2 J ul 20 Sep 16 Sep
2003 27 J un 2 J ul 27 Sep 19 Sep
2004 8 J ul 26 J un 27 Sep 26 Sep
2005 29 J un 4 J ul 29 Sep 27 Sep
2006 9 J ul 30 J un 27 Sep 6 Oct
2007 26 J un 27 J un 2 Oct 30 Sep
Mean 30 Jun (8) 5 Jul (8) 21 Sept (9) 19 Sept (9)

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Figure 10. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P22-P25 (16 April 5
May; southeast trades enter into the northern hemisphere over equatorial
Indian Ocean; unit: m/sec). The lower layer convergence is located over upper
Yangtze River basin and Indo-China peninsula; and upper layer divergence
over Indo-China peninsula.
68

Figure 11. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P29-P32 (25 May 9
J un; beginning of the onset phase over Indian subcontinent; unit: m/sec). The
lower layer convergence occurs over the upper Yangtze River basin and NE
India-Bangladesh; and upper layer divergence over NE India-Bangladesh.

69

Figure 12. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P33-P36 (10 J un 29
J un; middle of the northward advance; unit: m/sec). Both the lower layer
convergence over Pakistan and THIKHIHILS and upper layer divergence
occurs over the Nepal-Himalaya.
70

Figure 13. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P38-P41 (5 J ul 24
J ul; end of advance-onset over northwest India and Pakistan; unit: m/sec). The
lower layer convergence occurs over Pakistan-Afghanistan and western; the
upper layer divergence over western Himalaya.
71

Figure 14. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P48-P51 (24 August
12 September; established phase; unit: m/sec). The lower layer convergence
occurs over Pakistan-Afghanistan and eastern Tibet; and upper layer
divergence over eastern Himalaya.
72

Figure 15. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P54-P57 (23
September12 October; middle of withdrawal phase; unit: m/sec). The lower
layer convergence occurs over the south Indian peninsula-Bay of Bengal-
South China Sea sector; and upper layer divergence over northeast India-
western North Pacific sector.
73

Figure 16. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P60-P63 (23
October11 November; end of the boreal monsoon; unit: m/sec). The lower
layer convergence occurs over Sri Lanka-western equatorial Pacific Ocean
sector; and upper layer divergence over western North Pacific.

74

Figure 17. Streamlines at different layers of the troposphere during P72-P2 (22 December
10 J anuary; peak of Australian monsoon; unit: m/sec). The lower layer
convergence occurs over eastern equatorial Indian Ocean-northwest South
Pacific; and upper layer divergence over western North Pacific.
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1
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0
1
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1
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5
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7
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6
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4
5
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7
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7
1
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1
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1
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8
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9
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1
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3
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( W i t h d r a w a l d a t e ) D a y - i n - y e a r
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2
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9
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.

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ISSN 0252-1075

Contribution from IITM

Determination of Onset and Withdrawal Dates of

outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), upper-tropospheric water vapor brightness temperature,

3. Objective Criteria for Determination of Yearly Onset and Withdrawal

Southern Central West Coast (SCWC; SR3)

Western Central India (NCI; SR12)

Extreme Northern India (ENI; SR19)

6. Summary and Conclusion

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