1

Searching for the Baker Coalition: Historys Verdict on Bay State Politics



Founded in 1854 in Antebellum America, the Republican Party at its inception
was dominant throughout the North, and especially in Massachusetts. The Republicans
were a potluck political party. The formation of the Party brought together the Free
Soilers, Whigs, and others, it was an anti-slavery group with a pro-abolition wing. The
Republican Party sought to rival the pro-slavery Southern Democrats that held
considerable power on the national political scene and what seemed like a monopoly on
the White House. It was named the Republican Party in homage to the ideals of
founding father Thomas Jefferson and his Democratic-Republican party that was in
power in the early 1800s. The Republican Party was given the nickname the Grand Ole
Party, GOP, due to its populist ideals and ideology that there was room for all people
under their political tent.

Since its founding, thirty one of the last forty seven Massachusetts governors
have been Republican.
1
The tide of national politics have shifted constantly and
considerably, most dramatically after rise of the New Deal Coalition and in the wake of
the Civil Rights Era the Democratic Party, which once had a monopoly on the South and
rural America was cast out and the GOP become the Party of the South. Barry

1
National Governors Association http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/past-governors-
bios/page_massachusetts.html
2
Goldwater, Senator from Arizona would be the first Republican Presidential candidate to
win the South. Despite losing a landslide election to LBJ by over 400 electoral votes and
losing 44 of the 50 states, the states he did win told the story
2
. Goldwater captured his
home state of Arizona and also Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South
Carolina. It is no coincidence that the Civil Rights Act was passed by President Johnson
just months earlier. The Democrats had made their bed and now they would have to lie
in it. The South would awaken and flex their political muscle. It would take Richard
Nixon and his political strategist Ken Phillipss Southern Strategy to mobilize what was
called the silent majority and successfully, as Goldwater was unable, to enact the
Southern Strategy
3
. The GOP seized on their opportunity and created a new, unique
coalition comprised the Southern States, the rest of rural America, social conservatives,
and the very few remaining stragglers from the original party, the monied Northern elite.
This coalition would dominate national politics and drive the discourse while pushing the
entire discussion far to the right from Nixons landslide election in 1968 and culminate in
the resounding successes and landslide elections of Ronald Reagan. Even after
Reagan left the legacy of the GOPs big three (Goldwater, Nixon, and Reagan) was
apparent. The next three Presidents would all be Southerners George Bush Sr from
Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, George Bush Jr. from Texas.
As is often the case, there was an equal and opposite reaction to the
conservative wing of the Republican Party. Disaffected members of the Democratic
Party were left behind, obviously the Democrats now had a near monopoly on African-
American voters in the wake of the Civil Rights Act, union workers would become an

2
270towin.com - 1968 Electoral Map
3
Michigan.edu http://www.umich.edu/~lawrace/votetour10.htm
3
important part of this new coalition, social liberals, usually wealthy Northerners and
general societal outcasts completed what would be the new rivals to the new,
conservative Republican Party. The Northeast, Massachusetts in particular rejected
the neo-Republican brand in the same way that the South rejected the ideology of the
liberals. Yet, the old monied, business tycoons that were instrumental in founding and
developing the Republicans from the beginning remained a part of the GOP and formed
a coalition with the conservatives. The result of this was that the GOP was still the party
of business and pure, unadulterated capitalism. This strand of Republicanism allowed
the GOP to remain somewhat competitive on liberal turt. On the local level, despite
heavy resistance to the national politics of the GOP, Republicans achieved great
success in capturing the Massachusetts State House, until recently
4
. The political winds
have shifted yet again and with the emergence of Obama and the Tea Party in
response the entire nation has become more polarized and it has trickled down to all
levels of government in a way not seen since the Antebellum America and the founding
of the Republican Party, coming full circle back to 1854.

Today in Massachusetts, the Democratic Party has a monopoly on political
power. On the Federal level both Senators and all nine members of the House of
Representatives are Democrats
5
. On the state level thirty-six of the forty State Senators
are members of the Democratic Party and in the House there are just twenty three
Republicans out of one-hundred and sixty members
6
. As of the latest US Census

4
National Governors Association http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/past-governors-
bios/page_massachusetts.html
5
Massachusetts Legislature- 188th General Court https://malegislature.gov/People/House
6
Massachusetts Legislature- 188th General Court https://malegislature.gov/People/House
4
Report in 2010 just thirteen percent of Massachusetts residents are consider
themselves Republicans and the levels of registered voters that are Republicans are
estimated to be even lower
7
. Yet there has been a history of GOP Leadership in the
State House. After Michael Dukakis retired to oppose George H.W. Bush in the 1992
Presidential Election, there was a run of four consecutive Republican Governors. Even
in a state that had not voted for a Republican Presidential Candidate since it went for
Ronald Reagan in 1984, the GOP had a stranglehold on the Governorship. Bill Weld,
Paul Cellucci, and Mitt Romney, were all soundly elected despite their affiliation with the
Republican Party. Weld, in his reelection even won seventy percent of the vote, a
shocking total for a candidate of either party, but especially for a Republican in
Massachusetts
8
. But as it often does the political pendulum swung back and the
majority party Democrats recaptured Beacon Hill in an era of Democratic populism
amidst the unpopular second term of the George W. Bush Administration The states
first black governor was elected in Deval Patrick in 2006. Four years later in 2010,
Governor Patrick was narrowly reelected, garnering a minority of the electorate and
beating Republican Charlie Baker by less than two-hundred thousand votes
9
. The
question is how. How were Republicans able to secure the State House for sixteen
consecutive years in one of the most heavily Democratic states in the Union.

Once again in present day, the Commonwealth faces another Gubernatorial
Election. Charlie Baker, former CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, is once again the
Republican Nominee and is seemingly a Republican that would be a natural fit to upset

7
Secretary of the Commonwelath https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eleenr/enridx.htm
8
US Election Atlas-1994 MA Governor http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
9
US Election Atla- 2010 MA Governor http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
5
a Democrat in the heavily liberal Massachusetts. A savvy businessman, a native son,
and a social liberal, he seemingly fits the Weld, Cellucci, Romney mold quite nicely.
Additionally, the presumptive Democratic Nominee, Martha Coakley is a candidate
coming off a famously disastrous campaign for Senate, losing to Scott Brown in 2010
10
.
She made a measly nineteen campaign appearances after clinching her partys primary
and made outrageous and unsubstantiated allegations against Senator Brown
11
. Down
the homestretch of the race for the late Ted Kennedys vacant seat in this special
election, Coakleys lead evaporated
12
. The Democrats ran on the merits of the highly
unpopular, not-yet passed, Affordable Care Act, commonly known now as Obamacare.
The need for this law was not as needed in a state that had the highest rate of insured
residents after the passage of Masshealth, commonly known as RomneyCare.
Additionally, the national GOP rallied its resources and attention around Scott Brown,
who was seen as the potential forty-first vote to block its passage in the Senate. The
Republicans ran a smart campaign, and Scott Brown ran as the guy you could have a
beer with appealing to blue collar Democrats and independents, men especially. The
big takeaway from this upset was that it is not enough to simply be a Democrat to win
election in this state, the individual candidate and the quality of their campaign still
matters. The question going forward in the current race for Governor is, has Coakley
changed enough for the voters of Massachusetts, and additionally has the recent
national polarization of the countrys politics created an environment in our own state in

10
Boston Globe
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2013/09/12/headline/4jeDCRbszKwFZtf1egjFHN/story.html
11
Boston Globe
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2010/01/21/coakleys_failure_to_comm
unicate/
12
Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-
1144.html
6
which the minority party would be immediately disqualified? Only time will tell the
answers to these two questions. But the more interesting aspect of the campaign to
examine is the one regarding Charlie Baker. Has Baker learned his lessons from his
defeat in 2010? Which of the big three, Weld, Cellucci, Romney, is Baker most alike and
which Governors campaign can and should he emulate? Can Baker tap into the
coalition that produced four straight GOP Governors and claim the Corner Office as his
own? Finally, does such a coalition even exist in todays Massachusetts. To answer
these question looking back through history and comparing those campaigns and the
political climate they took place in with Baker and his 2014 candidacy is necessary.

In 1990, with Governor Michael Dukakis, coming off of an unsuccessful bid for
the Presidency, did not seek a fourth term, opening the door for a campaign by William
Weld. Weld began his career as a legal counsel with the House Judiciary Committee
during the Watergate impeachment inquiry, where one of his colleagues was Hillary
Rodham
13
. In 1981 was appointed by President Reagan to be US Attorney for
Massachusetts and served for five years. By 1986, Reagan promoted Weld to head of
the Criminal Division of the Justice Department in Washington. He stepped down in
1988 and in 1990 he declared his candidacy for Governor. On the left, John Silber,
President of Boston University, ran as the Democrats nominee. There was a general
feeling of dissatisfaction with the current leadership and on the national level the GOP
was riding high after the success of Reagan. The 1990 campaign was unusual to say
the least and one that could not be repeated in todays political environment. In the

13
Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/4thpaneltext120998.htm
7
Republican primary Weld faced a plethora of challenges, the toughest coming from
State Representative Steven Pierce. At the Republican Convention, Pierce won a
majority of the delegate votes with Weld pulling just thirty-six percent. Due to his
supermajority Pierce became the official candidate of the Party
14
. Weld was able to
successfully attack Pierce on his staunch social conservative stances while touting his
liberal stances and experience to achieve a come from behind victory to defeat Pierce
with over sixty percent of the vote for Massachusetts Republicans
15
. While it might be
counterintuitive for a candidate to have to endure a grueling primary challenge, the
presence of a primary represents a presence of a party with a pulse.

In both 2010 and 2014 Baker was not faced with a primary opponent, a sign of
the absence of a thriving GOP in the state. His sloppy 2010 campaign against a
vulnerable incumbent and his inability to exploit the wave of Republican dominance
suggest he could have benefited from fine tuning his message and tone in a primary.
Weld certainly benefited from his primary challenge. By the time the General Election
rolled around Welds message of fiscal conservatism appealed to voters after the
success of Reagan and Bush as the recession of 1992 had not yet hit. Baker will not
enjoy the boost of a popular national party as the GOP remains highly unpopular in this
state. As of October 2012, out of over four million registered voters, less than half a
million are Republicans
16
.There were approximately the same amount of registered

14
New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/1990/09/19/us/silber-wins-democratic-contest-in-
massachusetts.html
15
New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/1990/09/19/us/silber-wins-democratic-contest-in-
massachusetts.html
16
Secretary of the Commonwealth https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eleenr/enridx.h
16
Gallups Polls http://www.gallup.com/poll/125264/massachusetts-leans-democratic-independent-
base.aspx
8
Republicans in 1990 with a million and a half less voters overall
17
. In the General
Election, Weld once again ran to the left of his opponent on social issues, which
appealed to socially liberal Massachusetts. Baker would not have this advantage either
in 2014. As both parties have turned more extreme on social issues, the liberal Coakley
would have the advantage of touting the left side of all social issues and regardless of
whether or not Baker agrees with those position voters who go to the polls and break on
those issues will be in the bag for the Democrats, based on reputation and perception,
perhaps well deserved, and shaped by the platforms and voting records of the national
parties. Weld, did have these advantages however and he was seen as the more
likable candidate boosting his upset chances. Both Coakley and Baker had likability
issues last time around so which candidate is able to come across as likable or whether
that will matter remains to be seen. Due to Weld and Silbers social stances Weld the
Republican, took an almost inconceivable path to the upset victory. Common sense
points to white, middle class, blue-collar, male voters who generally vote Democrat due
to union ties are key targets for the GOP. These men handed Senator Brown the victory
in 2010. Silber may have capture those votes, but barely. In blue-collar towns that also
voted blue, such as Lowell, population 150,000, Weld lost by just 3,000 votes In
Brockton, population 9,000, he lost by just 200 votes. It got worse for Silber Weld,
dominated the liberal hotbeds of Greater Boston and the Cape. In a shocking turn of
events he won what are perhaps the two most liberal places in the entire country in

17
Secretary of the Commonwealth https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eleenr/enridx.htm
17
Gallup Polls http://www.gallup.com/poll/125264/massachusetts-leans-democratic-independent-
base.aspx
9
Cambridge and Provincetown, beating his opponent by thirteen points in Cambridge
18
.
His victory in Provincetown could also be attributed to his open embrace of the gay
community, a rarity for a politician on either side of the aisle in year 1990. He beat the
Democrat in town such as Brookline, Watertown, Lexington, Concord, and our very own
Newton. Weld captured 55, 52, 61, 64, and 57 percentage points of those cities and
towns respectively
19
. He was not just winning cities and towns that were reliably blue,
he was winning heavily populated cities and towns that were religiously blue.

It soon became clear that voters were not casting voters in predictable and
traditional ways and that is what makes William Welds upset victory so hard to repeat
for Baker in this current political climate. The most strident example of the Republicans
ability to cut into the Democratic base was the tendency of liberal women to run from
Silber, his conservative stances and his abrasive, foot-in-mouth rhetoric. First of all he
would be running against a woman, removing the possibility that he would enjoy the
favorable female numbers, and furthermore Coakley will not drive away social liberals in
the same bombastic manner that Silber was so adept at doing. Welds reelection in
1994 came with seventy percent of the vote, won by over nine-hundred thousand votes
and won every single county
20
. This is an extraordinary aberration for any election, even
for a popular majority party candidate. That result is once again not even remotely in the
realm of possibility for Baker and the advantages that Weld exploited in that campaign

18
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=1990&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
19
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=1990&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
20
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=1994&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
10
are not available to Baker. Bases on these circumstances the Weld Blueprint to the
State House is not one that Baker could or should seek to follow in his campaign in
2014.

1998 Governor Welds Lieutenant Governor, Paul Cellucci, was the the natural
heir after Welds successful tenure. Cellucci was a man cut from a different mold than
his former boss and that meant he would appeal to different sensibilities of the voters,
run a different campaign, and ultimately chart a different blueprint for victory in his
election. While Weld had the gravitas and experience of a savvy CEO, his Lieutenant
Governor was more a of a man of the people, average joe type of candidate. Paul
Cellucci was born and raised in the factory town of Hudson, MA. He attended school at
Boston College in Chestnut Hill before going on to Boston College Law School
21
. He
was truly a native son to the Commonwealth. In comparison to Gov. Weld, a New
Yorker educated at Harvard and Oxford University in England, Cellucci had certain
advantages that Weld had simply not been able to tap into. One such advantage was
gaining experience as the Acting Governor after Welds resignation in 1997, before
being elected in 1998. He was a career politician, again unlike his predecessor , who
worked his way up in the Party and remarkably never lost an election, even as a lifelong
Republican in Massachusetts
22
. Cellucci was first elected to public office as a member
of the Hudson Charter Commission in 1970. Subsequently, he was elected to the
Hudson Board of Selectmen, on which he served from 1971 to 1977 In 1976, he was

21
National Governors Association http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/past-governors-
bios/page_massachusetts/col2-content/main-content-list/title_cellucci_argeo.html
22
National Governors Association http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/past-governors-
bios/page_massachusetts/col2-content/main-content-list/title_cellucci_argeo.html
11
elected to the Massachusetts House of Representatives where he served until 1985. He
then became a member of the Massachusetts Senate, serving from 1985 to 1991. From
1991 to 1997 he was Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts.

In his run for Governor, he was pitted against Scott Harshbarger, a man from
Connecticut who held two degrees from Harvard. Coming off the tenure of highly
popular William Weld, Lt. Gov. Cellucci was well positioned to defeat this outside, even
if he was Democrat. Harshbarger was also a man that took a well worn route into the
field of politics. He was a District Attorney in Middlesex County before becoming the
Attorney General for the Commonwealth. On a side note, the 2014 Democratic
Nominee Martha Coakley also served as the District Attorney for Middlesex County
before being nominated and confirmed as the states Attorney General. Naturally as a
public defender and civil rights attorney, Harshbarger framed his candidacy as a
champion of the little guy and of the disenfranchised. Yet it was in the traditional
affluent suburbs that the Democrat was able to reassert Party dominance and take back
votes that had been for Weld. These voters were simply not disposed to vote for a blue
collar, Italian-American guy like Cellucci, Weld appealed to them as a staunch social
liberal and a man who had attended the two most prestigious educational institutions in
the world in Harvard and Oxford. No matter how much Cellucci played up his social
liberal credentials the fact that his opponent shared his beliefs made it inevitable that
the voters who go to the polls based on those issue would return to the Democrats tent.
To compound his dominance in the Greater Boston area, Harshbarger made campaign
finance reform a cornerstone of his campaign, an idea that appeals to affluent, politically
active liberals. To take one example, Cambridge, won by Weld, broke for Harshbarger
12
by approximately fifty percentage points, a dramatic sixty-three point swing
23
. But
Cellucci utilized the classic formula for counter punching the votes of the liberal elite as
a GOPer in Massachusetts, a formula that Scott Brown would mirror, he made dramatic
gains in the blue collar towns of Northern Massachusetts while securing the reliably red
rural regions. Cellucci played up his homegrown credentials, he was essentially the guy
youd want to have a beer with if you will. These blue-collar towns which were
historically liberal due to the presence of factory workers and unions were also old-
fashioned and more socially conservative. For these reasons Weld was unable to
capture these towns, despite a respectable showing. Cellucci would make these voters
the bread and butter of his blueprint. Despite actually being a genuine and hardline
social liberal, nominating women to to prominent positions and being a staunch and
outspoken pusher of gun control, social conservatives across the state rejected the
Democratic Party in the immediate and embarrassing aftermath of President Clinton's
sex scandal. In the town of Worcester, which Weld had lost by twenty points, Cellucci
battled to a tie. He was victorious in the immigrant, factory town of Lowell and in
neighboring Fall River he turned around what had been a forty seven point deficit in
Welds 1990 campaign into just a sixteen point defeat.
24
A large part of this could be
attributed to the fact that the Lt. Governor was simply a popular man who could appeal
across the aisle. This bipartisan appeal caused much of the Democratic Establishment
outside of the Harshbarger team to sit on their hands, most notably Boston Mayor
Thomas Menino, an Italian-American himself, made no effort to lend a hand or improve

23
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=1998&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
24
US Election Atlas US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=1998&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
13
the chances of landing a Democrat in the State House. Ultimately Cellucci would be
elected with the same percentage that Weld was initially elected upon
25
.

Similar to Welds campaign Baker shares some traits with the candidate but due
to the current climate would be unable to rely upon the same electorate and
circumstances to win the Governorship for himself. First of all Baker, a corporate man
from wealthy Needham could not relate to the sensibilities of the blue-collar voters that
Cellucci exploited. Second of all and more importantly, this time around the Democratic
Party will be both united and aggressive, the inner circle of Team Coakley especially.
Coakley and the rest of the Democratic Party learned their lesson in 2010 at the hands
of Scott Brown. This time around the Party and the candidate have acknowledged their
arrogance and are determined to mobilize their base in the Bay State and not take the
election for granted. At a recent Coakley fundraiser, hosted by Thomas ONeill, Jr. son
of the late former Speaker of the U.S House of Representatives and Massachusetts
legend Tip O'Neill, ONeill said that the entire Democratic leadership was responsible
for Coakleys defeat and that the Party would never again take any election for granted.
With this level of organization, coupled with the deep levels of voter dissatisfaction with
the GOP here in Massachusetts, the Democratic Party has proved to be unstoppable,
and could be an insurmountable obstacle.

Mitt Romney was a different animal altogether from both his predecessors.
Romney, a native of Michigan and a Mormon, had seen his father George Romney, the
Governor of Michigan from 1963-1969 launch a bid for the Presidency in 1968, while

25
US Election Atlas
14
Mitt was just 21 years old. The Romney were a powerful family and watching his father
run for President led Mitt to dream himself. He had aspirations that extended well
beyond the Governorship of Massachusetts. The young Romney had talent to match his
ambition. After earning his JD and Bachelor of Arts from Harvard he stayed in the
Boston area and went on to to co-found Bain Capital a venture capital group that
specialized in corporate takeovers of failing companies, he accomplished this before his
fortieth birthday
26
. He soon become a multi-millionaire but he never shook the political
bug and in 1994 challenged the legendary Ted Kennedy for his Senate seat. Despite
his inevitable defeat, Romney put his name out there and got experience, a key for any
politician looking for their start. Romney not only put his name out there and got his feet
in the door of Massachusetts politics, he won more votes against Ted Kennedy than
anyone had ever before or since, garnered 894,905 votes coming out with 41.01% of
the electorate
27
. Romney quietly built up his credentials which coincided with the
years of successes of Republican Governors. Romney had his breakthrough in early
2002 when he saved what would have a been a global embarrassment for America, by
turning around the Salt Lake City Olympics, earning himself nationwide, and worldwide
respect and admiration. His ascent to stardom was perfectly timed and later that year he
entered the race for Governor. He cleared the GOP field, something either Weld or
Cellucci was able to accomplish and was challenged by Shannon OBrien, who
emerged from a highly contested five-way primary, who sought to become the
Massachusetts first female Governor
28
.


26
USA Today http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/candidates/romney
27
US Election Atlas http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
28
BU.edu http://www.bu.edu/bostonia/winter03/obrien/
15
Surviving a financially taxing, having spent four and a half million to win the
nomination, and physically exhausting primary took a toll on the OBrien Campaign. By
contrast, Romney was physically fresh, the Republican Party was united behind a single
candidate, and the coffers were full. Romney sought to disarm his opponents ability to
cast him as an out-of touch corporate tycoon, which had cost him in 1994, by
scheduling what his team called work days, in which he would perform blue-collar jobs.
His recent turnaround of the Winter Olympics solidified his credentials as smart,
talented CEO type leader who would make the state more business friendly. He
attacked OBrien as a tax and spend liberal
29
. Romney was successfully able to walk
the line between not entirely alienating social liberals who lived in the Greater Boston
area by vowing to protect the woman's right to choose but still solidifying the social
conservatives of the state by playing coy as OBrien questioned his true position on
abortion and refusing to accept the endorsement of a liberal pro-choice group. OBrien,
in an attempt to mobilize social liberals came out in support of same sex marriage,
positioning herself even further to the left and completely driving away the voters of
those in small, culturally conservative urban areas which Romney gladly picked up into
his column and was able to capture a shocking forty percent of the total urban vote
30
.
Romney has always been politically aware and masterfully navigated the tepid waters of
running as a minority party candidate.


29
Boston Globe http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2012/10/01/can-mitt-romney-still-surge-and-
connect-with-voters/GLOuFerf2k6Haij7vpHqXN/story.html
30
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2002&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
16
Still, toting the party line OBrien clung to a small lead in the polls as the Fall
approached and election day neared. To counter Romney proved his worth and
tactfully played the role of an outsider, anti-establishment candidate running to prevent
a one-party monopoly. Romney labeled a Democrat as Governor creating a Gang of
Three, being OBrien and the House Speaker Thomas M. Finneran and Senate
President Robert E. Travaglini
31
. Romney's roots in Massachusetts and his business
capabilities appealed to the wealthy suburbs of Boston and the type of elite voters that
typically break for the Democrats based on social issues. Romneys proclamation that
he was a non-partisan Republican with progressive views was challenged hard by
OBrien and became a central issue to the campaign. But as harbinger to his future
political career this label was not able to weight Romney down enough to keep him from
his goals and he successfully convinced the electorate that he sincerely held these
views. Down the homestretch of the campaign Romney was able to mobilize a coalition
of the cultural conservatives and the suburban monied class, a unique coalition by itself
but even more bizarre when considering how he accomplished it. On election day in
November Romney prevailed by just over 100,000 votes, and by approximately five
percentage points,despite garnering just under a majority of the voters ballots with
49.77 percent
32
. Although Romney was elected with less percent of the vote than either
of his two Republican predecessors on their initial election his margin of victory was
greater than either Weld or Cellucci.


31
Boston Herald
http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2010/02/mitt_romney_targeted_hill%E2%80%99s_%
E2%80%98gang_three%E2%80%99_and_won
32
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2002&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
17
When comparing Charlie Baker to Romney both the candidate and the current
political climate of their campaigns seem more similar to each other than either Weld or
Cellucci. Both Baker and Romney are men of Harvard and men with experience in
corporate America. in 2014 Baker will be running amidst a conservative upswing similar
to the 2002 GOP takeover of Congress that permeated conservative success across
America and no doubt boosted the chances of Romney. Both are men of impressive
stature, Romney standing at six foot two and Baker at a towering six foot six. The
opponents are also similar on the surface. Both female lawyers with limited political
experience and a lack of natural charisma and charm. These traits factored into to the
downfall of OBrien in 2002 and certainly for Martha What do you want me to do, stand
there and shake peoples hands Coakley
33
. Both Romney and Baker are running with
the Party united behind them, a split conservative vote cost Baker dearly in 2010. This
time around Baker wont have to worry about that problem, with Tea Partier Matt
Fischer having to file a lawsuit to even appear on the ballot. As Romney focused on the
general election right away Baker has had the chance to do to the same, saving face
and saving money, a convenience he was not provided in 2010. Just as Romney faced
a weakened opponent in Shannon OBrien after her grueling primary, Baker faces a
weakened opponent as well after Coakleys embarrassing failure in 2010 where she
came across as weak, unorganized, cold, and an overall political lightweight. It took
Romney losing an election to figure out how to break through in Massachusetts as a
Republican and maybe the same will be said for Baker. As our Governor Romney held
approval ratings at around fifty percent for the majority of his only term, peaking after
the success of his landmark legislation Commonwealth Health Insurance Connector

33
Blue Mass Group http://bluemassgroup.com/2014/03/its-time-to-forgive-martha-coakley/
18
Authority more commonly known as MassHealth or in the world of politics,
RomneyCare
34
. It was only after Romney began to look ahead to his future Presidential
run that he took on exceedingly conservative viewpoints such as stances on abortion
and gay marriage, that caused his poll numbers to slide into the low forties.
35
This is the
line at which Romney and Baker separate and in this case, it is for the better for
candidate Baker. This is where it becomes clear which aspects of each of the three
Governors campaigns he must piecemeal in order to have the best result possible
come November. Whether or not he wins is beside the point. Baker is instinctively a
social liberal who instinctively focuses on business oriented solutions and running
government as such. Romney is a social conservative and in his own words, severely
conservative but is willing to bend his beliefs in order to win an election
36
. While
Bakers campaign and superficial characteristic share common ground with Romney,
his political views, disposition, and ambitions mirror that of William Weld. There is not
much common ground on any level with the late Paul Cellucci.

In his 2010 bid for Governor, Charlie Baker ran what was seen by many political
experts, and as Baker and his team will themselves admit, as negative campaign.
Minority party candidates such as Baker in 2010, and as Baker will be again in 2014,
can rarely win upset elections with a negative message. It is simply not a smart strategy
to insult the political persuasions of the majority of the voters. He made efforts to

34
Think Progress http://thinkprogress.org/health/2012/02/15/426255/poll-romneycare-overwhelmingly-
popular-in-massachusetts
35
Merrimack College Public Opinion Research
https://web.archive.org/web/20060906042740/http://kahuna.merrimack.edu/polling/BSP0306SR.pdf
36
NBC News http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/02/10/10375038-romney-boasts-of-severely-
conservative-record-in-cpac-speech
19
appeal to the liberal sensibilities of Massachusetts voters by coming out in favor of gay
marriage and abortion, genuine and natural stances that Baker truly holds, similar to
Weld and unlike Romney. Baker relied heavily on his private sector credentials in
venture capital and health care and his CEO leadership style ala Governors Weld and
Romney. Baker ran an anti-incumbent campaign, criticizing then Governor Deval
Patricks every move. Baker relied heavily upon the national trends towards the
Republican Party in the wake of Obamacares passage, that year 2010, marked the
founding and electoral dominance of the Tea Party. Baker was encouraged by Scott
Browns victory. The outside money poured into the Baker campaign and he outraised
and outspent all other candidates, even Deval Patrick. But one consequence of Scott
Browns victory and the Tea Party was that it installed a sense of urgency in the
Democrats and caused them not be complacent. The Massachusetts Democrats and
the Patrick campaign did not lay back as Martha Coakley had done and rely on the base
to turn out and vote party line. It undoubtedly also helped that it was not a special
election. Yet through it all and despite his poor campaign strategy, Gov. Patricks
Democrat and incumbent status, Baker came within six percentage points of winning
the election and had it not been for third party candidate Tim Cahill, a fiscal
conservative, who garnered over eight percent of the vote, Baker might have pulled off
the upset in that year
37
. Exit polls show that Baker won rural Central Massachusetts,
not surprisingly, but also made gains in the industrial, blue collar Northern

37
Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/ma/massachusetts_governor_baker_vs_patrick_vs
_cahill-1154.html
20
Massachusetts, in towns such as Lowell and Fall River
38
. What cost Baker the election,
was his failure to project himself the candidate and personally connect with voters. This
particular problem became evident with his struggles in the Middlesex County, the most
populous county in the entire state, losing by double digit points
39
. Baker, a Needham
native himself was also unable to win his home county Norfolk, tying there
40
. These
were two counties that were handily won by Weld and Romney, the blueprints that
Baker must pull from. Yet despite his defeat and his inability to win what would seem
like voters that should vote for him, Baker is reasonably well positioned to win election
for a number of reasons.

Today in 2014, Baker would be on the receiving end of several advantages that
he did not enjoy his first time around. Most notably, there is no incumbent in this years
election. Regardless of party affiliation, being an incumbent is a great advantage in any
election. The last time an incumbent lost a race for Massachusetts Governor was in
1964 when John Volpe lost by less than a third of a percent and even he would go on to
recapture the Governorship to serve for two more terms
41
. Second, while I have
previously stated the level of dominance that the Democrats have in our state and have
acknowledged that Martha Coakley has grown and learned from her past mistakes the
plain fact is that the voters have already rejected her and for a political lightweight in
Scott Brown whose main gift was his charisma and his image as a man of the people,

38
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2010&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
39
US Election
Atlashttp://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2010&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
40
US Election Atlas
40
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2010&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
41
National Governors Association http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/past-governors-
bios/page_massachusetts.html
21
driving around in his old green truck. Coakley was defeated amidst a GOP upswing and
2014 projects to be similarly favorable for Republicans nationwide
42
. Similarly to
Coakley, Baker also has had a chance to learn from his mistakes and rebrand himself
as a candidate. Looking to knock off Coakley, Baker is undoubtedly has a more
impressive resume and is much more qualified as a candidate than Brown ever was or
will be. In a state that ranks first in education and first in health care and a well deserved
reputation for elitism voters want a Governor that was CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health
Care and want a Governor that went to Northwestern and Harvard, it is those voters that
escaped Baker the first time around and it is that voting bloc that could propel Baker into
the State House. Those voters mostly live in Middlesex and Norfolk County two
counties that are heavily populated and Bakers home turf
43
. By contrast Coakley is from
Pittsfield, MA located in the Berkshires near the New York border, that is already solidly
Democratic territory that Baker was not very competitive in during the 2010 campaign
44
.

Upon closer examination the GOP's victory in 2010 in the Massachusetts special
election had more to do with the weakness and disorganization of Martha Coakley than
Scott Brown or his teams efforts. The exit polls tell the story. In the more blue-collar,
northern part of the Middlesex county, in Lowell, Andover, Dracut, Tyngsboro. Towns in
which Elizabeth Warren defeated Senator Brown by double digits just two years later,
Coakley failed to capture, losing in some cases such as Tewksbury by double digits
45
.
These are immigrant towns that are reliably Democratic, part of the base and Coakley

42
Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/
43
Massachusetts Census Report https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/cph-2-23.pdf
44
US Election Atlas
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2010&fips=25&f=0&off=5&elect=0
45
Boston.com town by town results http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2010/senate/results.html
22
lost them to a political nobody and lost them handily. History proved just two years later
that it couldnt have been all Scott Browns charm, Elizabeth Warren for all her intellect
is lacking in charisma and in charm. No matter how much Team Coakley refocuses,
rebrands the candidate and creates a better image they cannot shake the fact that
Coakley will have to pitch her candidacy to the same voters that rejected her in 2010
and to her base that rejected her. While she underperformed, it could be said that
despite his sloppy campaign and poor overall message Baker managed to overperform,
coming within six points of a reasonably popular, and highly charismatic Democratic
incumbent
46
. If it were not for the conservative Cahill, Baker could be looking at a
reelection campaign right now. Coakley will be facing a more talented, highly skilled,
highly capable candidate come November while Baker will be facing a less confident,
less capable and less qualified opponent.

As of May 2014 the polls show Coakley leading Baker by an aggregate score of
15.6 percent
47
. But polls are volatile. Coakley lead the polls by double digits until the
first debate against Scott Brown, after which they immediately swung to give Brown a
lead within the poll's margin of error
48
. Furthermore, late in all three of the GOP
Governors winning elections, they trailed in the polls, which all proved meaningless.
Polls are especially meaningless when the average voter is not familiar with the

46
Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/ma/massachusetts_governor_baker_vs_patrick_vs
_cahill-1154.html
47
Real Clear Politics
47
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/ma/massachusetts_governor_baker_vs_coakley-
3266.html
48
Real Clear Politics
48
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-
1144.html
23
candidates, as is the case this early in the campaign. I am not making the case that I
think that Charlie Baker will defeat Martha Coakley or that Republicans in this state
should be at all confident. I am arguing however that by looking at the history of our
Gubernatorial Elections there is a clear trend of socially liberal, business savvy
Republicans coming from behind to upset the Democratic candidate. None of the three
former Governors path to victory can be truly repeated by Baker in todays
Massachusetts. He can, however, take bits and pieces of each as he looks to grow his
coalition that turned out for him in 2010. He can try to be Weld, the savvy CEO who is
also a progressive. He can take Romneys ability to cast doubt on the merits of a new
Democratic Gang of Three. He can take advantage of a weak opponent like Paul
Cellucci did. He can turn out the vote in his hometown and dominate in Middlesex and
Norfolk Counties like Weld and Romney did. The blueprints they used are not possible
for Baker to recycle but Baker has the skills and the gravitas that those men had, while
the era he seeks the office they held is an even tougher one for a Republican, history
proves that in Massachusetts politics, on the statewide level at least, party be damned
and polls be damned, candidates of both parties have a chance.








24