RESULTS AND SIGNIFICANCE

OF THE STUDY
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Myo Naing, Phone: 076 056 0544, email: myo9996@gmail.com
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
FOR MUNICIPAL SERVICE DELIVERY PROCESSES
Early Warning System:
A detection process that
alerts key players and
stakeholders of
developing problematic
trends that can be
obviated by taking
corrective and
preventative
interventions.
INTRODUCTION
Environmental
trends
Internal
trends
Performance
trends
Issues
Impact?
Drop
from
issues
list
Signal
strength?
minor
major
weak
Urgency? Urgency?
strong
Start a gradual
commitment
project
Start a
priority
project
urgent
delayable
postponable
urgent
delayable
postponable
Source: Ansoff, 1984: 366.
0
50%
Total KZN Limpopo Mpumalanga North-west
14%
11% 8%
38%
27%
38% 39.5%
25%
satisfied with services
(in 2006)
satisfied with services
(in 2010)
Figure 2: Popular assessment of municipal
service delivery in 2006 and 2010
Source: Qwabe et al (2011: 17)
5%
P
&
The Graduate School of Public
and Development Management
DM
Figure 4: Weak Signals Strategic Issue
Management decision
42%
41%
32%
31%
50% of municipalities
Source: Sereto (2010: 6)
Figure 1: Audit of performance
information results for 2007-08 (the
same for 2010-11)
Figure 5: The sub-periods of time available between early warning and full impact of problem
Potential
problems
REFERENCES
Source: Adapted from Nikander & Eloranta, 2001: 389.
Figure 3: Weak Signals Strategic Issue
Management decision
Moment of observation Time
Flow of
municipal
service
delivery
processes
Observer
An environment of
municipal service
delivery processes
Decision-makers
Responses
Decision
making
Communication
Early warning
The four roots of service delivery problems, i.e.,
resources misallocation, expenditure leakages,
weak incentive, demand-side failure (Devarajan &
Reinikka, 2004) is used as a theoretical framework.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
METHODOLOGY
Any change taking place is
preceded by some form of
Warning, which the analyst
has the role of capturing and
making good use of (Ansoff,
1979).
is to develop and propose
a M&E system that is
incorporated with Early
Warning System (EWS) so
that it will enable
municipalities to receive
advance information
about potential problems,
and then to implement
the necessary corrective
interventions.
Local government is the
foundation of democracy,
if it fails, democracy will
fail (Robert W. Flack,
cited in Idasa, 2010: 1).
Since 1994, in order to improve municipal
service delivery performances, a series of
massive initiatives, policies and programmes
has been embarked on.
Source: Nikander,
2002: 86.
The rest of time for the
implementation of response
Mobilisation time of
implementation
Planning and
negotiation time
Decision
time
Time available Early
warning
Full impact
of problem
Missed deadlines
Missed targets
Overran costs
Plan deviations
Late or even no-submission of report
Non-compliance with regulations and rules
No consequence for non-compliance
Disjuncture between the municipality and municipal
entities
Low stakeholders involvement
Incomplete knowledge of process status
Poor coordination among departments
Poor communication among management and
employees

EWS SAMPLES
MYO NAING, The Graduate School of Public and Development Management
Strategic surprises give advance
information of themselves; there are
signals or symptoms of surprises to
come. Even on the basis of the initially
inexact information some actions can be
taken (Nikander, 2002: 24).
They were slain that had warning, not they that took it. (Adapted from a French proverb.)
DEFINITION:
PURPOSE
OF THE STUDY
Ansoff, I. H. (1975) Managing Strategic Surprise
by Response to Weak Signals. In California
management Review, Vol. XVII, No. 2.
Ansoff, I. H. (1979) Strategic Management.
London: Macmillan.
Ansoff, I. H. (1984) Implementing Strategic
Management. New York: Prentice/Hall.
Carrim, Y. (2011) Merit in Carrims Call. In The
New Age, 21 Sep 2011. p. 16.
CoGTA (Cooperative Governance and Traditional
Affairs) (2009) State of Local Government in
South Africa: Overview Report on National
State of Local Government Assessments.
(COGTA Working Document).
Devarajan, S. & Reinikka, R. (2004) Making
Service Work for Poor People. In Journal of
African Economies, Vol. 13(1), p. 1142-1166.
Engela, R. & Ajam, T. (2010) Implementing a
Government-wide M&E System in South
Africa. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Idasa (Institute for Democracy in Africa) (2010)
Local Government Barometer (2010 May).
Pretoria: Idasa
Nikander, I. O. (2002) Early Warnings: A
Phenomenon in Project Management. Espoo
(Finland): Helsinki University of Technology
Nikander, I. O. & Eloranta, E. (2001) Project
management by early warnings. In
International Journal of Project Management
Vol. 19, Issue 7, October 2001, p. 385399.
Oberholzer, C. (2012) The Ideal Municipality is
not yet beyond Reach.
Qwabe, B., Wenhold, M., Mdaka, P., Totwe, S.,
April, M., Kibirige, F., Dambudzo, J., & Nzo,
T. (2011) The State of Local Governance in
South Africa from a Citizen Perspective. Cape
Town: ABC Press.
SALGA (The South African Local Government
Association ) (2010) Key issues in local
economic development in South Africa and a
potential role for SALGA. Pretoria: SALGA.
Sejeng, T. (2013) Municipal Performance M&E. A
presentation presented on 10 April 2013 at the
IMFO indaba: Key to sustainable service
delivery.
Serote, P. (2010) Results of audits of
performance information. A presentation at
the Ad Hoc Committee on Service Delivery, on
2 February 2010.
The Presidency (Republic of South Africa) (2011)
Department of Performance Monitoring and
Evaluation: Strategic plan (2011/12 2015/
16). Pretoria: The Presidency.
This research is still in process. This study extends the
area of applicability of Ansoffs theory to municipal
service delivery process.
It is expected that the theoretical contribution of this
research will be a modification of Ansoffs Weak Signal
Theory to be applicable in public sector management.
Moreover, and most importantly, integrating an EWS
system into public sector M&E system will pave an
innovative way of applying EWS and Weak Signals
theory, which are generally used in disaster
management and strategic management, in public
sector management.
As an operational contribution, its outcome, a model of
M&E system that is integrated with EWS, will enable
municipalities as well as national and provincial
governments to get a better sense of the planning,
implementing, communicating, overseeing and
monitoring of the municipal service delivery process.
This research is an empirical study to examine the
ways the current M&E systems of municipalities
address their service delivery problems, find and
understand the causes of problems, and detect
possible early warnings.
It uses a qualitative approach and a case-study
methodology. Data are collected through non-
participant naturalistic observation, semi-structured
in-depth interviews and documentary study. The
observations will be grouped according to similar
characteristics, then the various factors will be
analysed qualitatively, as well as according to per
cent distributions.
Currently local
government is in distress
and a comprehensive
turnaround and more
creative responses are
needed (CoGTA, 2009;
SALGA, 2010).
Inadequate content of Integrated
Development Plan (IDP)
Performance information was not
received in time for audit purposes
Lack of internal auditing of
performance information
No reporting of performance
information
Continue to
monitor
Include in next
planning cycle
17%
Someone is always aware of impending or hidden
problems, nobody just wants to bring them out.
Nobody seems to want to let the cat out of the bag
(An answer from one interviewee, Nikander, 2002:
112).
Currently, 19.3% of households do not have
adequate access to water, while 36.2% do not
have adequate sanitation services, 27.3% have
no adequate electricity and 40.1% no adequate
refuse removal (Oberholzer, 2012: 1).
The current municipal monitoring and
evaluation (M&E) system is by legislation
compelled to serve as an early warning system
(EWS).
However, it does not have components of an
EWS and, as a result, cannot alert key players
and stakeholders of developing problematic
trends in municipal service delivery processes
(Sejeng, 2013: 5; Engela & Ajam, 2010: 8).
Municipalities are, however, still incapable of
fulfilling their constitutional Mandate (Carrim,
2011: 16). Effective and efficient service
delivery from most municipalities remains
elusive and does not meet the legitimate
expectations of their citizens (The Presidency,
2011: 7). (Figure 1 & 2)
The development of an M&E system that is
incorporated with EWS is based on performance
measurement principles and on previous researches
on early warnings and early signals, especially on
Ansoffs seminal works on weak signals (1975;
1979). (Figure 3, 4 & 5)
55%
Time factor
Time available
Processing