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Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism

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Page 1
Coverpage
The Scientific Guide to Global
Warming Skepticism
Credits Text 1
Acknowledgements
The Scientific Guide to Global Warming
Skepticism was written by John Cook from
skepticalscience.com.
Acknowledgements to the following who contributed
and commented on this document:
Credits Text 2
irst published !ecember "#$#
or more information or to comment on this Guide%
&isit www.skepticalscience.com
Translation by '()*+ ,A-./S0
The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
is licensed under a Creati&e Commons Attribution1
,onCommercial 2.# *nported 3icense. .4tracts may
be reproduced pro&ided Skeptical Science is attributed
with a link to www.skepticalscience.com.
age !1 Text 1
What does it mean to be skeptical5
Scientific skepticism is healthy. 6n fact% science by its
&ery nature is skeptical. Genuine skepticism means
considering the full body of e&idence before coming
to a conclusion. 7owe&er% when you take a close look
at arguments e4pressing climate 8skepticism9% what
you often obser&e is cherry picking of pieces of
e&idence while re:ecting any data that don9t fit the
desired picture. This isn9t skepticism. 6t is ignoring
facts and the science.
This guide looks at both the e&idence that human
acti&ity is causing global warming and the ways that
climate 8skeptic9 arguments can mislead by presenting
only small pieces of the pu;;le rather than the full
picture.
age !1 Text 2
Climate cherry Picking
Selecti&e cherry picking could ha&e you thinking this
is a blue cherry tree.
<ut what does the full body of e&idence tell you5
Page 2
age !1 Text "
Human fingerprints on climate
change
What scientists look for is coherence = independent
lines of e&idence pointing to a single% consistent
answer. The full body of e&idence in climate science
shows us a number of distinct% discernible human
fingerprints on climate change.
-easurements of the type of carbon found in the
atmosphere show that fossil fuel burning is
dramatically increasing le&els of carbon dio4ide
>C)" ? in the atmosphere. Satellite and surface
measurements find that e4tra C)" is trapping heat that
would otherwise escape out to space. There are a
number of warming patterns consistent with an
increased greenhouse effect. The whole structure of
our atmosphere is changing.
The e&idence for human caused global warming is not
based on mere theory or computer models but on
many independent, direct observations made in the
real world.
age !1 Graphic 1
#uman $ingerprints on Climate
Change
Cooling upper atmosphere
hrinking upper atmosphere
!ising tropopause
"ess heat escaping to space
"ess oxygen in the air
#ights warming faster than day
$ore fossil fuel carbon in the air
Winter warming faster than summer
$ore heat returning to %arth
$ore fossil fuel carbon in coral
Pattern of ocean warming
age !2 Text 1
7umans are raising C)" le&els
When you look through the many arguments from
global warming 8skeptics9% a pattern emerges. They
tend to focus on small pieces of the pu;;le while
neglecting the bigger picture. A good e4ample of this
is the argument that human carbon dio4ide >C)"?
emissions are tiny compared to natural emissions.
The argument goes like this. .ach year% we send o&er
"# billion tonnes of C)" into the atmosphere. ,atural
emissions come from plants breathing out C)" and
outgassing from the ocean. ,atural emissions add up
to @@A billion tonnes per year. Without a full
Page &
understanding of the carbon cycle% our emissions seem
tiny when compared to nature9s contribution.
The missing part of the picture is that nature doesnBt
:ust emit C)" 1 it also absorbs C)" . Clants breathe in
C)" and huge amounts of C)" dissol&e into the ocean.
,ature absorbs @DD billion tonnes e&ery year. ,atural
absorptions roughly balance natural emissions. What
we do is upset the balance. While some of our C)" is
being absorbed by the ocean and land plants% around
half of our C)" emissions remain in the air.
<ecause of our fossil fuel burning% atmospheric C)" is
at its highest le&el in at least " million years. And it9s
still going upE The Fhuman C)" is tinyG argument
misleads by only gi&ing you half the picture.
age !2 %nset 1
The weight of C)" emitted each day is comparable to
D%### Gulf of -e4ico oil spills
age !2 Graphic 1
An incomplete picture of the carbon cycle
Fossil Fuel Burning
Vegetation & Land
Ocean
Carbon cycle for the 1990s. Numbers are in billion
tonnes of CO2.
age !2 Graphic 2
The complete picture of the carbon cycle
[other tets are identical to Graphic !"
age !2 Text 2
Human #ingerprint $! ossil
fuel signature in the air H coral
There are different types of carbon in the air known as
carbon isotopes. The most common type is Carbon1$".
A hea&ier type of carbon is Carbon1$2. Clants prefer
the lighter Carbon1$".
ossil fuels like coal or oil come from ancient plants.
So when we burn fossil fuels like coal and oil% we9re
sending more of the lighter Carbon1$" into the air. So
we e4pect to see the ratio of Carbon1$2 to Carbon1$"
fall.
This is :ust what we obser&e% in measurements of the
atmosphere% in corals and sea sponges. So we ha&e
strong e&idence that the increase in carbon dio4ide in
the air is directly linked to human emissions.
age !2 Graphic "
!atio of Carbon-1& to Carbon-12 in coral
(ear
Measurements of 13C (ratio of Carbon-13 to Carbon-12)
from corals in the Great arrier !eef.
Page '
age !" Text 1
The e&idence that more C)
causes warming
Carbon dio4ide traps infrared radiation >commonly
known as thermal radiation?. This has been pro&en by
laboratory e4periments and satellites which find less
heat escaping out to space o&er the last few decades
>see "uman #in$er%rint &2?. This is direct e&idence
that rising C)" is causing warming.
The past also tells an interesting story. 6ce cores show
that in the .arth9s past% C)" went up after temperature
initially increased. This FC)" lagG means temperature
affects the amount of C)" in the air. So warming
causes more C)" and more C)" causes e4tra warming.
Cut these two together and you get positi&e feedback.
Cositi&e or negati&e feedback don9t necessarily mean
good or bad. Cositi&e feedbacks strengthen any
climate change already underway while negati&e
feedbacks suppress >weaken? any climate change.
6n the past when climate warmed due to changes in the
.arth9s orbit% this caused the ocean to release more
C)" into the atmosphere resulting in the following
effects:
The e4tra C)" in the atmosphere amplified
the original warming. That9s the positi&e
feedback
The e4tra C)" mi4ed through the
atmosphere% spreading greenhouse warming
across the globe.
The ice core record is entirely consistent with the
warming effect of C)" . 6n fact% the dramatic warming
as the planet comes out of an ice age cannot be
e4plained without the feedback from C)" . The C)"
lag doesn9t dispro&e the warming effect of C)" . )n
the contrary% it pro&ides e&idence of a positi&e climate
feedback.
age !" Graphic 1
(#
atellites obser)e less heat escaping to space
G+..,7)*S. GAS.S
%arth warms and emits infrared heat
$ore heat returns to %arth
.A+T7
age !" Graphic 2
Example of a Positive Feedback
*ncreased C+2 causes warming
Warming causes oceans to gi)e up more C+2
%xtra C+2 causes more warming
age !" Text 2
Page ,
Human #ingerprint $%
3ess heat is escaping
out to space
Satellites measure infrared radiation as it escapes out
to space% clearly obser&ing the greenhouse effect. A
comparison between satellite data from $I@# to $IIA
found that e&en less energy is escaping to space at the
wa&elengths that greenhouse gases absorb energy.
+esearchers described this result as '(irect
e)%erimental e*i(ence for a si$nificant increase in the
+arth,s $reenhouse effect'.
This has since been confirmed by subseJuent
measurements from se&eral different satellites.
age !" Graphic "
Change in radiation escaping to space
_ <rightness temperature >K?
Wa&enumber >cm1$?
Chan$e in out$oin$ ra(iation s%ectrum from 19-0 to
199. (ue to increasin$ $reenhouse $ases. Ne$ati*e
*alues mean less out$oin$ heat.
age !& Text 1
The e&idence that global warming
is happening
)ne 8skeptic9 argument is so misleading% it reJuires
three le&els of cherry picking. This argument is
Fglobal warming stopped in $IIDG.
The first cherry pick is that it relies on temperature
records that don9t co&er the entire globe% such as data
from the 7adley Centre in the *.K. The 7adley
Centre record doesn9t include the Arctic region where
the fastest warming on the planet is occurring.
+ecords co&ering the entire planet find the hottest
calendar year on record is "##L. The hottest $"
months were June "##I to -ay "#$#.
The second cherry pick is asserting a long1term trend
based on selected end1point years. )cean cycles like
.l ,iMo e4change massi&e amounts of heat between
the ocean and atmosphere% so surface temperature
:umps up and down from year to year. To work out the
long1term trend% scientists use techniJues such as
mo&ing a&erages or linear regression that take into
account all the data. These show that surface
temperatures continue to rise since $IID.
The third cherry pick is looking only at surface
temperature% which is a measurement of atmospheric
temperature. )&er D#N of the e4tra energy from the
increased greenhouse effect goes into warming the
oceans. To find out if global warming continued past
$IID% look at all the heat accumulating in the climate
Page -
system. When we add up the heat going into the
oceans% warming the land and air and melting the ice%
we see the planet continues to accumulate heat.
age !& Graphic 1
Hottest 12 months on record June 200 to
!ay 2010
#.. G* global temperature 12 month
running a)erage
Temperature &ariation 'y1a4is0
(ear '41a4is0
12 month runnin$ a*era$e of $lobal tem%erature
*ariations.
age !& Graphic 2
"uild#up in Earth$s %otal Heat &ontent
+cean /eating
"and 0 .tmosphere /eating
1ariation in /eat Content since 12,3 413 5oules6
'y1a4is0
Cumulati*e heat for the +arth since 19/0. 0he rate of
ener$y buil(in$ u% since 19-0 is e1ui*alent to 2./
"iroshima bombs e*ery secon(.
age !& Text 2
Human #ingerprint $&
The ocean warming pattern
The world9s oceans ha&e steadily been building up
heat o&er the past O# years. The specific pattern of
ocean warming% with heat penetrating from the
surface% can only be e4plained by greenhouse
warming.
age !& Graphic "
North Atlantic
North Indian
North Pacifi
!outh Atlantic
!outh Indian
!outh Pacific
7epth 4m6 'y1a4is0
ignal strength '41a4is0
Obser*e( ocean tem%erature (re() com%are( to mo(el
results that inclu(e $reenhouse 2armin$ ($reen).
age !' Text 1
-ore e&idence of the reality of
global warming
ome claim that much of the measured global
warming is due to weather stations positioned
near air conditioners and car parks8 We know this
isn9t true for se)eral reasons8 We can compare
temperatures from well-placed weather stations
to the poorly-sited weather stations8 :oth well-
placed and poorly-sited sites show the same
amount of warming8
Page ;
.nother way to check thermometer
measurements is to compare them to satellite
data8 atellite measurements show a similar rate
of global warming8 <his is confirmation that
thermometers are gi)ing us an accurate picture8
.s well as the compelling temperature record= we
ha)e a large body of obser)ations in many
different systems that are consistent with a
warming world8 *ce sheets are melting= losing
billions of tonnes of ice each year8 ea le)els are
rising at an accelerating rate8 pecies are
migrating toward the poles and glaciers are
retreating 4threatening water supplies for many
millions of people68
<o gain a proper understanding of climate= we
need to look at all the e)idence8 What we see are
many independent obser)ations all pointing to
the same conclusion - global warming is
happening8
age !' Graphic 1
'ndicators of a (armin) (orld
Glaciers
/umidity
<emperature +)er "and
now Co)er
.ir <emperature #ear urface 4troposphere6
<emperature +)er +ceans
<ree-lines shifting poleward and upward
ea urface <emperature
pring coming earlier
ea "e)el
+cean /eat Content
*ce heets
pecies migrating poleward and upward
ea *ce
age !' Text 2
Human #ingerprint $'
,ights warming faster than days
An increased greenhouse effect means nights should
warm faster than days. !uring the day% the sun warms
the .arth9s surface. At nighttime% the surface cools by
radiating its heat out to space. Greenhouse gases slow
down this cooling process. 6f global warming was
caused by the sun% we would e4pect the warming trend
to be greatest in daytime. 6nstead% what we see is the
number of warm nights increasing faster than the
number of warm days."L
age !' Graphic 2
Warm #ights
Warm 7ays
Page >
1ariation in #umber
of Warm 7ays?#ights @y-axisA
3on$-term *ariation in the number of 2arm (ays (re()
4 2arm ni$hts (blue) %er year. 5arm is (efine( as
the to% 106.
age !( Text 1
7ockey stick or hockey league5
The 8hockey stick9 commonly refers to a
reconstruction of temperature going back o&er the last
millennium. The steep warming in recent times is seen
as the blade of the stick. 7owe&er% there are many
hockey sticks found in climate science. The amount of
C)" emitted by humans% mostly through the burning
of fossil fuels% has a distinct hockey stick shape o&er
the last $### years.
The dramatic increase in C)" emissions is matched by
a steep rise in atmospheric C)" le&els% which ha&e
now reached le&els unseen for at least " million years..
Climate forcing is a change in the planet9s energy
balance 1 when our climate builds up or loses heat.
Parious factors cause these changes% such as
&ariations in solar acti&ity% aerosols >tiny particles
suspended in the air?% changes in the .arth9s orbit and
C)". )&er the past $### years% the ma:or dri&ers of
long1term climate change ha&e been the sun% aerosols
and C)". The combined climate forcing from these
influences shows a familiar shape.
This shows our climate has been building up heat in
recent times. We see a corresponding warming:
)&er the last decade% a number of independent studies
ha&e reconstructed temperature o&er the last $###
years% using a multitude of data and different data
analysis techniJues.
All these hockey sticks tell a similar and consistent
story 1 humans ha&e caused a profound and rapid
disturbance to our climate system.
age !( Graphic 1
/uman C+2 emissions 4billion metric tonnes of
C+26
C+2 emissions @y-axisA
(ear '41a4is0
0otal yearly CO2 emissions (billions of tonnes).
age !( Graphic 2
.tmospheric C+2 concentration 4parts per million6
.tmospheric C+2 @y-axisA
(ear '41a4is0
CO2 le*els (%arts %er million) from ice cores at 3a2
7ome8+ast 9ntarctica ($reen) an( (irect
measurements from Mauna 3oa8 "a2aii (%ur%le)
Page 2
age !( Graphic "
#et Climate BorcingC solar D C+2 D aerosols
4Watts per sEuare metre6
Climate Borcing @y-axisA
(ear '41a4is0
Combine( climate forcin$ from solar *ariations8 CO2
an( aerosols - the short-term effects of *olcanoes are
omitte(.
age !( Graphic &
#orthern /emisphere "and <emperature
$oberg et al8 233, !econstruction 4blue6
nstrumental <emperature 4red6
<emperature )ariation 4FC6 @y-axisA
(ear '41a4is0
Northern hemis%here tem%erature reconstruction (blue)
%lus instrumental measurements of northern hemis%here
lan( tem%erature (re().
age !( Graphic '
@cannot copy annotationsA
<emperature anomaly 4FC6 @y-axisA
(ear A.!. '41a4is0
:arious northern hemis%here tem%erature reconstructions.
age !) Text 1
What does past climate change
tell us5
A common 8skeptic9 argument is that Fclimate has
changed naturally in the past and therefore recent
global warming can9t be caused by humansG. This
argument is like saying Fforest fires ha&e happened
naturally in the past so any recent forest fires can9t be
caused by humansG.
Scientists are well aware that climate has changed in
the past. 6n fact% the past gi&es us &ital clues about
how our planet responds to the &arious dri&ers of
climate. We can see what happens when the .arth
builds up heat% whether it be due to more sunlight or
rising greenhouse gases. The crucial disco&ery from
e4amining different periods throughout .arth9s history
is that positi&e feedbacks amplify any initial warming.
This is why climate has changed so dramatically in the
past. Cositi&e feedbacks take any temperature changes
and amplify them. eedbacks are why our climate is
so sensiti&e to greenhouse gases% of which C)" is the
most important dri&er of climate change.
So there is a great irony when past climate change is
in&oked as dispro&ing the human influence on global
warming. The peer1re&iewed science actually comes
to the opposite conclusion. Cast climate change
pro&ides strong e&idence for positi&e feedback that
amplifies the warming caused by our C)" emissions.
Page 13
age !) Graphic 1
Examples of climate feedback
P*+'%',E FEE-"A&.
(armin) keeps more /ater in the air
!ore /ater vapour traps more heat
0E1A%',E FEE-"A&.
&louds reflect sunli)ht
!ore /ater vapour causes more clouds
&louds trap heat
P*+'%',E FEE-"A&.
age !) Text 2
Human #ingerprint $(
-ore heat is returning to
.arth
An increased greenhouse effect means we should see
more infrared radiation returning down to .arth from
the atmosphere. This has been directly obser&ed.
When we take a close look at the spectrum of the
downward radiation% we can work out how much each
greenhouse gas is contributing to the warming effect.
rom these results% it was concluded:
'0his e)%erimental (ata shoul( effecti*ely
en( the ar$ument by s;e%tics that no
e)%erimental e*i(ence e)ists for the
connection bet2een $reenhouse $as
increases in the atmos%here an( $lobal
2armin$.<
age !) Graphic 2
%rend in do/n/ard infrared radiation
0ren( in (o2n2ar( infrare( ra(iation o*er 19-3 to
200=. North 9merica is blan; because (ata in those
re$ions (on,t co*er the entire 19-3 to 200= %erio(.
age !* Text 1
7ow sensiti&e is our climate5
Climate sensiti)ity is a measure of how much
global temperature warms if atmospheric C+2 is
doubled8 *t9s well established that the direct
warming from a doubling of C+2 4hypothetically
assuming no climate feedbacks6 is around 182FC8
<he big Euestion is how feedbacks react to this
initial greenhouse warming8 7o positi)e
feedbacks amplify the initial warmingG +r do
negati)e feedbacks suppress the warmingG
Climate sensiti)ity has been determined using a
)ariety of different techniEues8 *nstrumental
measurements= satellite readings= ocean heat=
)olcanic eruptions= past climate change and
climate models ha)e all been examined to
calculate the climate9s reaction to a build-up in
Page 11
heat8 We ha)e a number of independent studies
co)ering a range of periods= studying different
aspects of climate and employing )arious
methods of analysis8
<his )ariety of methods paints a consistent
picture H a climate sensiti)ity range between 2 to
'8,FC= with a most likely )alue of &FC8 <his
means positi)e feedbacks amplify the initial C+2
warming8
. few assert that climate sensiti)ity is much lower
than this= citing a study by "indIen and Choi8
<his study uses satellite measurements of
outgoing radiation= suggesting strong negati)e
feedback8 /owe)er= it looks only at tropical data8
<he tropics are not a closed system - a great deal
of energy is exchanged between the tropics and
subtropics8 <o properly calculate global climate
sensiti)ity= global obser)ations are reEuired8
e)eral studies analysing near-global satellite
data find positi)e feedback8
. proper understanding of climate sensiti)ity
reEuires
the full body of e)idence8 <o claim low climate
sensiti)ity based on a single study is to ignore the
many lines of e)idence that find positi)e
feedback and high climate sensiti)ity8
age !* Graphic 1
)stimates of *limate Sensitivity
most likely
likely
)ery likely
6nstrumental Ceriod
Current mean climate state
Climate models
3ast -illennium
Polcanic .ruptions
!ata
-odels
3ast Glacial -a4imum
-illions of (ears Ago
Combining different lines of e&idence
Parious .stimates of Climate Sensiti&ity >QC?
age !+ Text 1
6mpacts of global warming
To claim that global warming will be good for
humanity is to turn a blind eye to the many negati&e
impacts. The most common argument along these
lines is that carbon dio4ide is 8plant food9% so C)"
emissions are a good thing. This ignores the fact that
plants rely on more than C)" to sur&i&e. The FC)"
fertili;erG effect is limited and will be Juickly
o&erwhelmed by the negati&e effects of heat stress%
Page 12
drought% and smog% all of which are e4pected to
increase in the future. )&er the past century% drought
se&erity has increased globally and is predicted to
intensify in the future. Clants cannot take ad&antage of
e4tra C)" if they9re dying of thirst.
There are many climate change impacts that ha&e no
positi&e aspects. <etween $D and 2LN of plant and
animal species could be committed to e4tinction by
"#L#. )ceans are absorbing much of the C)" in the
air% which leads to ocean acidification. This is
predicted to ha&e se&ere destabilising effects on the
entire oceanic food1chain% on top of the negati&e
effects of coral bleaching from warming waters >a
one1two punch from global warming?. An estimated $
billion people depend on the ocean for a substantial
portion >R2#N? of their animal protein.
As glaciers and snowfields dwindle% so does the water
supply for millions of people who are deeply reliant
on those freshwater supplies% especially for irrigated
agriculture. Similarly% sea le&el rise and increased
storm acti&ity will affect millions o&er this century as
rice paddies are inundated with salt water% seawater
contaminates ri&ers% aJuifers become polluted and
populations are displaced. This will force many
millions of people to mo&e inland% increasing the risk
of conflict.
When someone says global warming is a good thing%
citing isolated positi&e impacts% remember that the full
body of e&idence indicates the negati&es far outweigh
the positi&es.
age !+ Graphic 1
>ast 4 future (rou$ht8 usin$ the >almer 7rou$ht
?e*erity @n(e). lue re%resent 2et con(itions8 re(
re%resents (ry. 9 rea(in$ of -A or belo2 is consi(ere(
e)treme (rou$ht.
age !+ Text 2
Human #ingerprint $+
Winter warming faster
As greenhouse warming increases% winters are
e4pected to warm faster than summers. This is
because the greenhouse effect has a greater influence
o&er winter. This is what is obser&ed in the
instrumental record.
age !+ Graphic 2
ummer Warming
Winter Warming
<emperature 1ariations 4FC6 @y-axisA
(ear '41a4is0
?moothe( tem%erature *ariations for 2inter an( summer8
a*era$e( o*er lan( only from 1=/0 to 2009.
Page 1&
age 1! Text 1
Shooting the messenger
6n ,o&ember "##I% the email ser&ers at the *ni&ersity
of .ast Anglia were hacked and emails were stolen.
When a selection of emails between climate scientists
were published on the 6nternet% a few suggesti&e
Juotes were taken out of conte4t and interpreted as
re&ealing global warming was all :ust a conspiracy.
This has been labelled 8climategate9 by some. To
determine if there had been any wrong1doing% si4
independent enJuiries from .ngland and the *nited
States ha&e in&estigated the stolen emails. .&ery
single in&estigation cleared the climate scientists of
any wrong doing.
The most Juoted email is Chil Jones 8hide the decline9%
which is commonly misinterpreted. The 8decline9
actually refers to a decline in tree1ring growth since
the $IA#s. As tree growth is affected by temperature%
tree1ring widths closely match thermometer
measurements in the past. 7owe&er% some tree1rings
di&erge from thermometer measurements after $IA#.
This issue has been openly discussed in the
peerre&iewed literature as early as $IIL. When you
look at Chil Jones9 email in the conte4t of the science
discussed% it is not conspiratorial scheming butSa
technical discussion of data1handling techniJues
readily1a&ailable in the peer1re&iewed literature.
6t9s important to put the stolen emails in perspecti&e.
A handful of scientists discuss a few pieces of climate
data. .&en without this data% there is still an
o&erwhelming and consistent body of e&idence%
painstakingly compiled by independent scientific
teams across the globe. A few suggesti&e Juotes taken
out of conte4t may ser&e as a distraction for those
wishing to a&oid the physical realities of climate
change% but change nothing about our scientific
understanding of humanity9s role in global warming.
Climategate attempts to point the finger at scientists
but deflects attention from what matters: the science.
age 1! %nset 1
'...no e*i(ence of any (eliberate scientific
mal%ractice in any of the 2or; of the Climatic
!esearch Bnit.<
*,6P.+S6T( ) .AST A,G36A 6,
C),S*3TAT6), W6T7 T7. +)(A3 S)C6.T(
age 1! %nset 2
'0he scientists, ri$our an( honesty are not in (oubt.<
6,!.C.,!.,T C36-AT. C7A,G. .-A63
+.P6.W
age 1! %nset "
'0here e)ists no cre(ible e*i(ence that 7r. Mann ha(
or has e*er en$a$e( in8 or %artici%ate( in8 (irectly or
Page 1'
in(irectly8 any actions 2ith an intent to su%%ress or to
falsify (ata.<
C.,, STAT. *,6P.+S6T(
age 1! Text 2
Human #ingerprint $,
Cooling upper atmosphere
As greenhouse gases trap more heat in the lower
atmosphere% less heat reaches the upper atmosphere
>the stratosphere and higher layers?. So we e4pect to
see a warming lower atmosphere and cooling upper
atmosphere. This has been obser&ed by satellites and
weather balloons.
age 1! Graphic 1
*ooling -pper .tmosphere
Warming /ower .tmosphere
<emperature 1ariation 4FC6 @y-axis leftA
<emperature 1ariation 4FC6 @y-axis rightA
0em%erature *ariations ((e$rees Celsius) in the u%%er
an( lo2er atmos%here8 measure( by satellites (!??).
age 11 Text 1
The scientific consensus on
global warming
)ccasionally% you might encounter petitions listing
scientists who are skeptical of human1caused global
warming. 7owe&er% &ery few of the signatories on
these lists are in&ol&ed in climate research. There are
medical scientists% ;oologists% physicists and engineers
but &ery few whose area of e4pertise is climate
science.
So what do the real e4perts think5 Se&eral studies
ha&e sur&eyed climate scientists who are acti&ely
publishing climate research. .ach study found the
same answer 1 o&er I@N of climate e4perts are
con&inced humans are changing global temperature.
This is confirmed by peer1re&iewed research. A
sur&ey of all peer1re&iewed research on the sub:ect
8global climate change9 published between $II2 and
"##2 found that among the I"D papers found% not a
sin$le %a%er re:ected the consensus position that
human acti&ities are causing global warming.
age 11 Graphic 1
0ver 1, out of !22 climate eperts think humans
are causing global warming
age 11 Text 2
The consensus of evidence
The case for human1caused global warming isn9t
based on a show of hands but on direct obser&ations.
-ultiple% independent lines of e&idence all point to the
same answer.
Page 1,
There9s a consensus of e&idence that humans are
raising carbon dio4ide le&els in the atmosphere. This
is confirmed by measuring the type of carbon in the
air. What we find is more of that carbon is coming
from fossil fuels.
There9s a consensus of e&idence that rising C)" is
causing warming. Satellites measure less heat
escaping to space. Surface obser&ations find more heat
returning to .arth. This is happening at the e4act
wa&elengths where C)" traps heat 1 a distinct human
fingerprint.
There9s a consensus of e&idence that global warming
is happening. Thermometers and satellites measure the
same warming trend. )ther signs of warming are
found all o&er the globe 1 shrinking ice sheets%
retreating glaciers% rising sea le&els and shifting
seasons.
The pattern of warming shows the tell1tale signatures
of an increased greenhouse effect. ,ights are warming
faster than days. Winters are warming faster than
summers. The lower atmosphere is warming while the
upper atmosphere is cooling.
)n the Juestion of whether humans are causing
climate change% there9s not :ust a consensus of
scientists 1 there9s a consensus of e&idence.
age 11 %nset 1
There9s not :ust a consensus of scientists 1 there9s a
consensus of e&idence.
age 12 Text 1
+eferences
,ack Text 1
The case for human1caused global warming is based
on many independent lines of e&idence. Global
warming 8skepticism9 often focuses on narrow pieces
of the pu;;le while denying the full body of e&idence.
)ur climate is changing and we are the ma:or cause
through our emissions of greenhouse gases. The facts
about climate change are essential to understand the
world around us% and to make informed decisions
about the future.
,ack Text 2
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Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism

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