EAB5900/ KBP5900:

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY (KAJIAN PENYELIDIKAN)

PROF. WAN ISHAK WAN ISMAIL, PhD, P.Eng

Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering,
Faculty of Engineering,
Universiti Putra Malaysia.
EAB5900/ KBP5900:
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY (KAJIAN PENYELIDIKAN)
EAB5900(3,0)
Three hours lecture per week or 42 hours
lecture per semester.
Students are required to do homeworks and
assignments.
Tests and (Examination) are open book or take
home.
Quizes are for closed book.
EAB5900/ KBP5900:
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY (KAJIAN PENYELIDIKAN)
Course Grade:
Test 1: Take Home test/ open book (25%)
Test 2: Take Home test/ open book (25%)
Assignments and Quizes: 10%
Final: 40% (20% + 20%)

COURSE NAME : RESEARCH METHODS
(Kajian Penyelidikan)

COURSE CODE : EAB 5900

CREDIT : 3

PREREQUISITE : None

TOTAL LEARNING
OUTCOMES :At the end of this course, students will understand the basic
principles of research methods and will gain the skills needed to
conduct research efficiently.

SYNOPSIS :This course discusses about the best practices in the execution of
graduate research. It encompasses overview of research
methodology, hallmarks of scientific research, research design
thesis writing, oral presentations, and ethical considerations in
engineering research.

EAB5900/ KBP5900:
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY (KAJIAN PENYELIDIKAN)
COURSE OUTCOMES:
1. Overview of Research Methods
Types of Research
Research Objectives
Research Designs
Data Collection Methods
Sample Sizes
Data Analysis
Research Report

2. Research Proposal
Literature Review
Thesis Research Scope
Importance of Thesis Research Proposals
General Structure of Thesis Proposal
Preparation of a Thesis Research Proposal

3. Selected Features for Scientific Research
Purpose
Durability
Reliability
Repeatability
Accuracy and confidence
Transparency
4. Research Design
Formation of theoretical framework
Common experimental design
Basic measurement
Sampling
Primary and secondary data collection
Security issues in implementing research

5. Data Analysis
Analytical Methods
Analysis and data processing
Formation and hypothesis testing
Introduction to statistical research software
Regression and projection

6. Thesis Writing and Oral Presentation
Thesis overview
Thesis structure
Good oral presentation under pressure
Public Speaking
Preparation for progress report, journals writing and seminars

7. Engineering Research Ethics
The research members right
Plagiarsm
Protocol publication
Intellectual Properties
Patents
Commercial values

Conceptual development, organizing of facts and
writing of Research proposals

Selection of equipment and software, planing and time
management and organizing team in Research design

Statistical and analytical techniques in Data analysis

Publication of research result; Organizing of
information, selection of journals and communication,
development of presentation skills etc

REFERENCES :
1.Beach, D.P. Torsten, K.E. A. Handbook for Scientific and Technical Research.
Prentice Hall. Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 1996

2.Creswell, J.W. Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods
Approach. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks. USA 2002.

3.Leedy, P.D. Practical Research: Planning and Design. Merril. Upper Saddle River,
N.J. 1997.

4.Sekaran, U. Research Methods for Business, A Skill Building Approach. 4th
Edition. John Wiley and Sons, New York. 2003.

5.Strunk, William. Elements of Style. Ithaca, N.Y.: Priv. Print. [Geneva, N.Y.: Press
of W.P. Humphrey], Bartbleby.com. 1999.

6.Zinsser, W.K. On Writing Well: The Classic Guide to Writing Nonfiction, 25th Ed.
Harper Collins, New York. 2001.


Class Introductory
Name:
Title of Research:
Program: Eg. PhD (Agricultural Automation and
Robotics)
Semester Intake:
Expected Date of Graduation:
Name of Supervisor/ Advisor:
Name of Co-Supervisor/s:
Summary of Research Project:
(Or your initial Research Proposal)
CURRICULUM VITAE (II)


1. Name in Full :PROF. WAN ISHAK WAN ISMAIL, PhD, P.Eng.

2. Department :Department of Biological and Agricultural
Engineering
Address:
Faculty : Faculty of Engineering
Universiti Putra Malaysia
43400, Serdang, Selangor.

Field of Specialization :Agricultural Engineering
(Agricultural Robotics and Automation;
Agricultural Systems and Modeling).


Education and Academic
Qualifications
(i) College Education
Diploma of Agriculture
College of Agriculture Malaya,
Serdang. (1970 - 1973).
(ii) University Education
Degree: Bachelor of Science in Agricultural Engineering
Louisiana State University, USA. (1974 - 1977)
Degree: Master of Science in Agricultural Engineering
Louisiana State University, USA. (1977 - 1979)
Degree: Doctor of Philosophy in Agricultural Engineering
Michigan State University, USA. (1987 - 1991)

Assignment 1
In class:
Name:
Title of Research
Program:
Semester Intake
Expected Date of Graduation
Name of Supervisor
Summary of Research

Assignment 2

In first Class:
List of activities
Predecessor activities
Time of Activities

In second class:
Draw the network
Insert the time
Determine the critical path

Assignment 2 and 3
Procedures that will help project leader /supervisor
answer questions such as

1. What is the total time to complete the project?
2. What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each
specific activity?
3. Which activities are critical and must be completed
exactly as scheduled in order to keep the project on
schedule?
4. How long can non critical activities be delayed before
they cause a delay in total project?

Assignment 4
Do it in class and hand in after class

Without referring to your handouts, please draw the network
for the Shopping Center Expansion Project.
STRATEGIC R & D MANAGEMENT

PART ONE
THE UNIVERSITY VISION IS TO BE A WORLD CLASS
UNIVERSITY
The Universitys mission is to be a leading Center of
Learning and Research contribution not only
towards human advancement and discovery of
knowledge, but also to the creation of wealth and
nation building


THE UNIVERSITY VISION IS TO BE A WORLD CLASS
UNIVERSITY

TO ACCOMPLISH VISION

Paradigm shift from received knowledge to generate
new knowledge
Strength in research is the most important indicator
for Universitys reputation. Followed by quality of
teaching and learning.

Survey on world class universities conclude:


Strength in research is the most
important indicator for Universitys
reputation. Followed by quality of
teaching and learning.

AIMS OF UPM
1. To produce quality graduates who are competitive and resilient through lifelong
learning.

2. To transform UPM into a renowned research University.

3. To enhance UPMs capability as a center for learning and teaching in agricultural
knowledge and technology.

4. To enhance a quality management system that is effective, efficient, transparent and
client friendly.

5. To develop excellent human resources and to create conducive professional
environment.

6. To promote a culture of information and communication technology (ICT) via e-
University.

7. To generate and manage the Universitys financial resources in an effective and
efficient manner.

8. To enhance the position of UPM as a Centre of Professional Development and
Continuing Education.





Universiti Putra Malaysia
is a
RESEARCH UNIVERSITY


AIMS 2

TO TRANSFORM UPM INTO A RENOWNED
RESEARCH UNIVERSITY

OBJECTIVES

1. To take research efforts to new heights
2. To enhance excellence in research
3. To increase research findings
4. To provide world class research facilities
5. To provide excellent research support facilities
6. To promote research and scholarly activities at
the university
RESEARCH GRANTS

RESEARCH PROJECTS

RESEARCH PRODUCTS
(a) Medals and Awards
(b) National and International
Recogition
PATENT RESEARCH FINDINGS

COMMERCIALISE RESEARCH PRODUCTS


EXAMPLES OF LOCAL
RESEARCH GRANTS

1. GOVERNMENT (MOSTI)
(a) FRGS
(b) ERGS
(c) PRGS
2. TOP DOWN NATIONAL BIOTECHNOLOGY
3. FUNDING FROM MINISTRY OF EDUCATION
4. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH GRANTS
5. RESEARCH UNIVERSITY GRANTS (RUGS)
EXTERNAL GRANTS AGENCIES (NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL)

SCIENCE FUND
ICT
Advanced Materials
Advanced Manufacturing
Biotechnology
Renewable Energy
Nanotechnology

TECHNO FUND
Techno fund is a competitive funding to
undertake pre-commercialization of new
technologies in:-
ICT
Advanced Materials
Advanced Manufacturing
Biotechnology
Renewable Energy
Nanotechnology

INNO FUND
Innovation is not just about invention. It also
encompass the process by which ideas are taken to
market.

Fundamentally, innovation encompasses new
products, processes and systems by which value can
be created for customers, businesses and society
more broadly.

New Research Grants
Examples:
Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS)

Research University Grant Scheme (RUGS)
Research Proposals/ Application Forms
Title of Proposed Research
Details of Researcher
Research Information
Other Researchers, research projects
completed
Summary of Research Proposal
Research Background (hypothesis, literature
review)
Objectives of the Research
Methodology
Expected Results/Benefit
Budget
Lecture
Research Approach
Research Methodology
Project Activities
Gantt Chart (macro level planning)
Key Milestones
Project Schedule
Circuit Diagram Representation/ Chart (micro level
planning)

LECTURES
STRATEGIC R & D MANAGEMENT

TIME MANAGEMENT
COST MANAGEMENT
When you received research grant , you
assume to be a researcher or a manager of the
grant.
In many situation managers/Project Leaders of
the research grants assume the responsibility
for planning, scheduling, and controlling
projects that consist of numerous separate
jobs or tasks performed by a variety of
departments, individuals, etc.

Often these projects are so large and/or
complex that the manager/ project leader
cannot possibly keep all the information
pertaining to the plan, schedule, and progress
of the project in his/her head.

Managers has to plan, schedule, and control a wide
variety of projects, such as

1. Research and development of new products and
processes
2. Construction of plants, buildings, highways
3. Maintenance of large and complex equipment
4. Design and installation of new systems

While project time and the meeting of a scheduled
completion date are primary considerations for
almost every project, there are many situations in
which the cost associated with the project is just as
important as time.
In projects such as these, project managers
must schedule and coordinate the various jobs
or activities so that the entire project is
completed on time.
A complicating factor in carrying out this task
is the interdependence of the activities; for
example, some activities depend upon the
completion of other activities before they can
be started.
Procedures that will help project leader /supervisor
answer questions such as

1. What is the total time to complete the project?
2. What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each
specific activity?
3. Which activities are critical and must be completed
exactly as scheduled in order to keep the project on
schedule?
4. How long can non critical activities be delayed before
they cause a delay in total project?

Project Scheduling on Research and Development of a
New Product
Many of the activities in research and
development project have never been
previously attempted.
The supervisor and graduate students must
identify and account for the uncertainties in
the activity times.
Uncertain Activity Times
Once we have established a network for the project,
we will need information on the time required to
complete each activity.

This information will be used in the calculation of the
duration of the entire project and the scheduling of
the specific activities.
Uncertain Activity Times
For new or unique projects, activity time estimation
may be significantly more difficult.

In fact, in many cases activity times are uncertain and
are perhaps best described by a range of possible
values rather than one specific activity time estimate.
Optimistic time
The activity time if everything progresses in an ideal manner

Most probable time
The most likely activity time under normal conditions

Pessimistic time
The activity time if we encounter significant breakdowns
and/or delays
The techniques of Program Evaluation and
Review Technique and Critical Path Method
have proved to be extremely valuable in
assisting researchers and managers in carrying
out their research and project management
responsibilities.
MSc (Agricultural Mechanization and Automation)
Research Proposal for masters program

Development of Autonomous Chemical Weed
Sprayer System.
The graduate students in this class (EAB5900: Research
Method) are required to present their master or Phd research
in class. (presentation during the first class)

For the second class the graduate students are required to
produce the list of activities, predecessor activities and time
for each activities.

At the end of the second class, the graduate students are
expected to produce the network activities.
Autonomous Chemical Weed
Sprayer System
The objective:
Sprayer automatically spray the accurate
amount of chemicals to kill the weeds based
on the information by the camera vision.

The research supervisory committee of the
particular graduate student would like to
initiate the project to study the feasibility of
proceeding with the research team idea.

The end result of the feasibility study will be a
report recommending the action to be taken
for the new product.
Summary of the critical path procedure
that can be used to plan, schedule, and
control projects



1. Develop a list of activities that make up the
project.




2. Determine the immediate
predecessor activities for each
activity in the project.





3. Estimate the completion time for
each activity.







4. Draw a network depicting the
activities and immediate
predecessors listed in steps 1 and 2.



5. Using the network and the activity
time estimates, determine the
earliest finish time for the entire
project.






6. Using the project completion time
identified in step 5 as the latest finish
time for the last activity,

Make a backward pass through the
network to identify the latest start
time and latest finish time for each
activity.

7. Use the difference between the
latest start time and the earliest start
time for each activity to identify the
slack time available for the activity.





8. The critical path activities are the
activities with zero slack.





9. Use the information from step 5 and
6 to develop a detailed activity
schedule for the project.



Let us study a simple example to demonstrate
the above procedures

(Please get ready with blank papers and
pencil)

Simple Illustration

As a young entrepreneur you are involve in
the process of buying a small business.
The first step in the project scheduling process
is to determine the specific jobs, or activities,
that make up the project.

In the process of buying a small business,
consider the list of four activities shown
Summary of the critical path procedure
that can be used to plan, schedule, and
control projects



1. Develop a list of activities that make up the
project.

2. Determine the immediate predecessor
activities for each activity in the project.


Activity Description
Activity List for the Example Project of Buying a
Small Business
A Develop a list of sources for financing -
B Analyze the financial records of the business -
C Develop a business plan (e.g., sales projections, -
cash flow projections, etc.)
D Submit a proposal to a lending institution -
Activity Description Immediate
Predecessors
Activity List for the Example Project of Buying a
Small Business
A Develop a list of sources for financing -
B Analyze the financial records of the business -
C Develop a business plan (e.g., sales projections, B
cash flow projections, etc.)
D Submit a proposal to a lending institution A, C
The immediate predecessor for a particular
activity are the activities that, when
completed, enable the start of the activity in
question.
For example, the information tell us we can work on
activities A and B anytime, since neither of these
activities depends upon the completion of prior
activities.

However, activity C cannot be started until activity B
has completed, and activity D cannot be started until
both activities A and C have been completed.
As you will see, immediate predecessor
information must be known for each activity
in order to describe the interdependencies
among the activities in the project.
With the above information, draw the
network of activities.
PERT/CPM Network for the Example Project of
Buying a Small Business
4 3
2
1
Arcs indicate project
activities
Nodes correspond to the
beginning and ending of
activities
A
B C
D
The activities are shown on the branches, or arcs of the
network.
The circles, or nodes of the network correspond to the
beginning and ending of the activities.
The completion of all the activities that lead into a node is
referred to as an event.
For example, node 2 corresponds to the event that activity B
has been completed and node 3 corresponds to the event
that both activities A and C have been completed

Let us study a another example to
demonstrate the above procedures

(Please get ready with blank papers and
pencil)
Research Project Scheduling
The owner of the Shopping Center is considering
modernizing and expanding the current 32-business
shopping complex.

Financing for the expansion has been arrange through a
private investor. If the expansion project in
undertaken, the owner hopes to add eight to 10 new
businesses or tenants to the shopping complex.
The specific activities that make up the expansion project
are listed in table below.

Activity

Description
A Prepare architectural drawings of planned expansion
B Identify potential new tenants
C Develop prospectus for tenants
D Select contractor
E Prepare building permits
F Obtain approval for building permits
G Construction
H Finalize contracts with tenants
I Tenants move in
The specific activities that make up the expansion project are listed in table
below. Note that the list include the immediate predecessor for each activity.

Activity

Description

Immediate
Predecessor
A Prepare architectural drawings of planned expansion -
B Identify potential new tenants -
C Develop prospectus for tenants A
D Select contractor A
E Prepare building permits A
F Obtain approval for building permits E
G Construction D, F
H Finalize contracts with tenants B, C
I Tenants move in G, H

The specific activities that make up the expansion project are listed in table
below. Note that the list include the immediate predecessor for each activity
as well as the number of weeks required to complete the activity.

Activity

Description

Immediate
Predecessor
Completion
Time (week)
A Prepare architectural drawings of planned expansion - 5
B Identify potential new tenants - 6
C Develop prospectus for tenants A 4
D Select contractor A 3
E Prepare building permits A 1
F Obtain approval for building permits E 4
G Construction D, F 14
H Finalize contracts with tenants B, C 12
I Tenants move in G, H 2
Total : 51
Without referring to your handouts, please draw the network
for the Shopping Center Expansion Project.
Network for the Shopping Center Expansion Project
2
Select Contractor
A
4
3
1 6 7
5
C
B
H
I
F
E
D
G
Construction
Finalize
Tenant
Contracts
Move In
Develop
prospectus
Identify
New
Tenant
Prepare
Drawings
Obtain
Permits
Prepare
Permits
Shopping Center Project Network with Activity Times
2
3
A
4
3
1 6 7
5
C
B
H
I
F
E
D
G
14
12
2
4
6
4
1
5
The Critical Path
Once we have the project network and the activity times, we
are ready to proceed with the calculations necessary to
determine the total time required to complete the project.
In order to determine the project completion time we will have to analyze
the network and identify what is called its critical path.
A path is a sequence of connected activities that leads from the starting
node (1) to the completion node (7).
The longest path determined the total time or duration of the project.
If activities on the longest path are delayed, the entire project will be
delayed.
Thus the longest path activities are the critical activities of the project and
the longest path is called the critical path of the network.
If managers wish to reduce the total project time, they will have to reduce
the length of the critical path by shortening the duration of the critical
activities.
Earliest Start Time Rule
The earliest start time for an activity leaving a particular
node is equal to the largest of the earliest finish times for
all activities entering the node.
Starting at the networks origin (node 1) and using a starting time of 0, compute an
earliest start and earliest finish time for each activity in the network. Let
ES= earliest start time for a particular activity
EF= earliest finish time for a particular activity
T= expected activity time for the activity

The following expression can be used to find the earliest finish time for a given
activity:
EF= ES + t
For example, for activity A, ES = 0, and t= 5, thus the earliest finish time for activity
A is
EF= 0 + 5 = 5.
Shopping Center Project Network with ES and EF Times
2
3
A[0,5]
4
3
1 6 7
5
C
B[0,6]
H
I[24,26]
F
E
D
G
14
12
2
4
6
4
1
5
Proceeding in a forward pass through the network, we can establish the
earliest start time and then the earliest finish time for each activity.
Note that the earliest finish time for activity I, the last activity is 26 weeks.

Thus the completion time for the entire project is 26 weeks.
We now continue the algorithm for finding the critical path by making a
backward pass calculation, starting at the completion point (node 7) and
using a latest finish time of 26 for activity I, we trace back through the
network computing a latest start and latest finish time for each activity.

Latest Finish Time Rule
The latest finish time for an activity entering a particular
node is equal to the smallest of the latest start times for
all activities leaving the node

We now continue the algorithm for finding the critical path by making a
backward pass calculation, starting at the completion point (node 7) and
using a latest finish time of 26 for activity I, we trace back through the
network computing a latest start and latest finish time for each activity.
Let
LS= latest start time for a particular activity
LF= latest finish time for a particular activity

The following expression can be used to find the latest start
time for a give activity:
LS= LF - t
Please complete your network. Write the Latest Start (LS)
and Latest Finish (LF) times directly on the network.
Shopping Center Project Network with LS and LF Times
2
3
A
4
3
1 6 7
5
C
B
H
I[24,26]
F
E
D
G
14[10,24]
12[12,24]
2[24,26]
4
6
4
1
5
Please complete your network. Write the Earliest Start (ES)
and Earliest Finish (EF) times directly on the network.

Please complete your network. Write the Latest Start (LS)
and Latest Finish (LF) times directly on the network.

Please hand in this assignment 1
After obtaining the start and finish activity times we can find the amount
of slack or free time associated with each of the activities.
Slack is defined as the length of time an activity can be delayed without
affecting the completion date for the entire project.
The amount of slack for each activity is computed as follows:

Slack= LS ES = LF - EF
Activity Schedule for the Shopping Center Expansion Project
Activity Earliest Start
(ES)
Latest Start
(LS)
Earliest Finish
(EF)
Latest Finish
(LF)
Slack (LS-
ES)
Critical
Path?
A 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
B 0 6 6 12 6
C 5 8 9 12 3
D 5 7 8 10 2
E 5 5 6 6 0 Yes
F 6 6 10 10 0 Yes
G 10 10 24 24 0 Yes
H 9 12 21 24 3
I 24 24 26 26 0 Yes
For example, we see that the slack associated with activity C is
LS ES = 8-5 =3 weeks.

This means that activity C can be delayed up to 3 weeks (start anywhere
between weeks 5 and 8) and the entire project can still be completed in 26
weeks.

Thus activity C is not a critical activity and is not part of the critical path.
The slack associated with activity E is
LS ES = 5-5 = 0.

Thus activity E has no slack time and must be held to the 5-week start
time schedule.
Since activity E cannot be delayed without affecting the entire project, it is
a critical activity and is on the critical path.
In general, the critical path activities are the activities with zero slack.
Note that by computing the slack associated with each activity, we see that
activities A, E, F, G and I each have zero slack; hence these activities form
the critical path in the shopping center expansion network. Note that the
table below shows the slack or delay that can be tolerated for the non
critical activities before these activities will cause a project delay.
Let us reconsider these questions in light of the information of
the network and critical path calculated provided about the
Shopping Center Expansion Project.
1. What is the total time to complete the project?
- the project can be completed in 26 weeks if the individual activities are
completed on schedule.

2. What are the scheduled start and completion times for each activity?
- The detailed activity schedule that shows the earliest start, latest start,
earliest finish and latest finish times for each activity.

3. Which activities are critical and must be completed exactly as scheduled
in order to keep the project on schedule?
- The five activities A, E, F, G, and I as the critical activities for the project.

4. How long can non critical activities be delayed before they cause a delay
in the completion time for the project?
- The slack time available for all activities as shown in table.

Activity Schedule for the Shopping Center Expansion Project developed using the
Management Scientist
Activity Earliest Start
(ES)
Latest Start
(LS)
Earliest Finish
(EF)
Latest Finish
(LF)
Slack (LS-
ES)
Critical
Path?
A 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
B 0 6 6 12 6
C 5 8 9 12 3
D 5 7 8 10 2
E 5 5 6 6 0 Yes
F 6 6 10 10 0 Yes
G 10 10 24 24 0 Yes
H 9 12 21 24 3
I 24 24 26 26 0 Yes
The critical path is A-E-F-G-I. The project completion time is 26.
Go back to Agricultural Mechanization Research (AMR) teams
project scheduling on Research and Development of
Autonomous Sprayer
UPM Autonomous Weed Sprayer
System
Recently AMRs research team submitted a research proposal to MOSTE
on the R & D of the Autonomous Sprayer.
The objective:
Sprayer automatically spray the accurate amount of chemicals to kill the
weeds based on the information by the camera vision.

Faculty of Engineerings management committee would like to initiate the
project to study the feasibility of proceeding with the research team idea.
The end result of the feasibility study will be a report recommending the
action to be taken for the new product.
Feasibility study, information must be obtained from the firms research
and development (R&D), product testing, manufacturing, cost estimating,
and market research groups.
The first step in the project scheduling process is to determine all the activities
that make up the project as well as the immediate predecessors for each
activity.

Activity Description Immediate Predecessors
A R&D product design -
B Plan market research -
C Routing (manufacturing engineering) A
D Build prototype model A
E Prepare marketing brochure A
F Cost estimates industrial (engineering) C
G Preliminary product testing D
H Market survey B, E
I Pricing and forecast report H
J Final report F, G, I
Without referring to your handouts, please draw the network
for the Autonomous Sprayer R&D Project.
Network of the Autonomous Sprayer
2
Routing
A
4
3
1 7 8
5
E
B
H
J
F
D
C
G
Cost
Estimates
Pricing
and
Forecast
Final
Report
Marketing
Brochure
Market
Research
Plan
Product
Design
Testing
Prototype
6
Market Survey
Completion
I
Uncertain Activity Times
Once we have established a network for the project, we will need
information on the time required to complete each activity. This
information will be used in the calculation of the duration of the entire
project and the scheduling of the specific activities.
For new or unique projects, activity time estimation may be significantly
more difficult.
In fact, in many cases activity times are uncertain and are perhaps best
described by a range of possible values rather than one specific activity
time estimate.
In these instances the uncertain activity times are treated as random
variable with associated probability distributions. As a result,
probability statements will be provided about the project meeting
specific completion dates.
In order to incorporate uncertain activity times into the network
analysis, we will need to obtain three time estimates for each activity.
The three estimates are

1. Optimistic time (a)
2. Most probable time (m)
3. Pessimistic time (b)

Optimistic time
The activity time if everything progresses in an ideal manner

Most probable time
The most likely activity time under normal conditions

Pessimistic time
The activity time if we encounter significant breakdowns
and/or delays
As an illustration of procedure with uncertain activity times, let us
consider the optimistic, most portable, and pessimistic time estimates
for the Autonomous Sprayed activities
Activity Optimistic (a) Most Probable (m) Pessimistic (b)
A 4 5 12
B 1 1.5 5
C 2 3 4
D 3 4 11
E 2 3 4
F 1.5 2 2.5
G 1.5 3 4.5
H 2.5 3.5 7.5
I 1.5 2 2.5
J 1 2 3
Using activity A as an example, we see that management
estimates that this activity will require from 4 weeks
(optimistic) to 12 weeks (pessimistic), with the most likely
time 5 week.
If the activity could be repeated a large number of times,
what would be the average time for the activity?
This average or expected time (t) can be determined from
the following formula:

a + 4m + b
6
t =
For activity A we have an estimated average or expected
completion time of




With uncertain activity times we can use the common
statistical measure of the variance to describe the
dispersion or variation in the activity time values. The
variance of the activity time is given by the following
formula

4 + 4(4) + 12
6
36
6
t = =
A
= 6 weeks
b a
6
(
)
2
=
Using the above equations and examples, Can you all please
calculate the expected time and variance for each activity
Autonomous Sprayer
Expected time and Variance for the Autonomous Sprayer
Activities
Activity Expected Time (in weeks) Variance
A 6 1.78
B 2 0.44
C 3 0.11
D 5 1.78
E 3 0.11
F 2 0.03
G 3 0.25
H 4 0.69
I 2 0.03
J 2 0.11
Total : 32
The Critical Path
Once we have the network and the expected activity times, we are ready
to proceed with the critical path calculations necessary to determine the
expected project completion time and a detailed activity schedule.
In the critical path calculations we will treat the expected activity times as
the fixed length or known duration of each activity.
Without referring to your handouts, please draw the network
with the activity time for the Autonomous Sprayer R&D
Project.
Network of the Autonomous Sprayer
2
Routing
A
4
3
1 7 8
5
E
B
H
J
F
D
C
G
Cost
Estimates
Pricing
and
Forecast
Final
Report
Marketing
Brochure
Market
Research
Plan
Product
Design
Testing
Prototype
6
Market Survey
Completion
I
Project Network with Expected Activity Times
2
3
A
4
3
1 7 8
5
E
B
H
J
F
D
C
G
2
2
3
2
6
3
5
6
4
2
I
After the critical activities and the expected project
completion time have been determine, we will analyze the
effect of the activity time variability
Proceeding with a forward pass through the network we can
establish the earliest start (ES) and earliest finish (EF) times
for each activity.

Please complete your network. Write the Earliest Start (ES)
and Earliest Finish (EF) times directly on the network.
Autonomous Sprayer Network with Earliest Start and
Earliest Finish Time Shown Above Activities
2
3
A [0,6]
4
3
1 7 8
5
E [6,9]
B [0,2]
H [9,13]
J [15,17]
F [9,11]
D [6,11]
C [6,9]
G [11,14]
2
2
3 2
6
3
5
6
4
2
I [13,15]

Note that the earliest finish time for activity J, the last activity,
is 17 weeks. Thus the expected completion time for the entire
project is 17 weeks.
Next we continue with the procedure for finding the critical path by
making a backward pass through the network.
The backward pass provides the latest start (LS) and latest finish (LF) times
Please complete your network. Write the Latest Start (LS)
and Latest Finish (LF) times directly on the network.
Network with Latest Start and Latest Finish Times Shown Below
Activities
2
3 [10,13]
A [0,6]
4
3
1 7 8
5
E [6,9]
B [0,2]
H [9,13]
J [15,17]
F [9,11]
D [6,11]
C [6,9]
G [11,14]
2
2
3
2
6 [0,6]
3 [12,15]
5
6
4 [9,13]
2 [15,17]
I [13,15]
[7,9]
[13,15]
[6,9]
[7,12]
[13,15]
From the above network please develop the
Activity Schedule (in weeks) for the Autonomous Sprayer Project
Activity Earliest Start
(ES)
Latest Start
(LS)
Earliest Finish
(EF)
Latest Finish
(LF)
Slack (LS-
ES)
Critical
Path?
Please hand
in this
assignment 2
The start and finish times provide the detailed schedule for all
activities.
Putting this information in tabular form provides the activity
schedule.
Note that the slack time = (LS ES) is also shown for each
activity.
The activity with zero slack show that activities A, E, H, I and J
form the critical path for the autonomous Sprayer project
network.
Activity Schedule (in weeks) for the Autonomous Sprayer Project
Activity Earliest Start
(ES)
Latest Start
(LS)
Earliest Finish
(EF)
Latest Finish
(LF)
Slack (LS-
ES)
Critical
Path?
A 0 0 6 6 0 Yes
B 0 7 2 9 7
C 6 10 9 13 4
D 6 7 11 12 1
E 6 6 9 9 0 Yes
F 9 13 11 15 4
G 11 12 14 15 1
H 9 9 13 13 0 Yes
I 13 13 15 15 0 Yes
J 15 15 17 17 0 Yes
Variability in the Project
Completion Time
In carrying out the critical path calculations, we treated the
activity times as fixed at their expected values;
we are now ready to consider the uncertainty in the activity
times and determine the effect this uncertainty or variability
has on the project completion date
Recall that the critical path determines the duration of the entire project.
For the Autonomous Sprayer project the critical path of A-E-H-I-J resulted
in an expected project completion time of 17 weeks.
Just as the critical path activities govern the expected project completion
date, variation in critical path activities can cause variation in the project
completion date.
Variation in non critical path activities will ordinarily have no effect on the
project completion date because of the slack time associated with these
activities.
However, if a non critical activity were delayed long enough to expend all
its slack time, then that activity would become part of a new critical path,
and further delays would extend the project completion date.
Variability leading to a longer than expected total time for the critical path
activities will always extend the project completion date.
Let us now use the variance in the critical path activities to
determine the variance in the project completion date.

If we let T denote the project duration, then T, which is
determined by the critical activities A-E-H-I-J in the problem,
has the expected value of

E(T) = t
A
+ t
E
+ tH

+ t
I
+ t
J

= 6 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 2 = 17 weeks

Where t
A
, t
E
, tH ,t
I
and t
J
are the expected completion times
for the critical path activities.
Using the expected time as the fixed time, the critical activities and critical
path for the project can be found.

The sum of the expected times of critical path activities provides the
expected project time.

The sum of the variances of critical path activities provides the variance in
the project completion time.

The graduate students were given an
assignment to complete the list of activities,
list of predecessor activities and the time for
each activity.

The next assignment will be to develop the
network of activities, completing the earliest
start time and earliest finish time for the
activities. Analyse.