This presentation was given by Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., NAR Chief Economist, to the Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum at the 2014 REALTORS® Party Convention & Trade Expo in Washington, DC on May 15, 2014.
This presentation was given by Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., NAR Chief Economist, to the Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum at the 2014 REALTORS® Party Convention & Trade Expo in Washington, DC on May 15, 2014.
This presentation was given by Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., NAR Chief Economist, to the Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum at the 2014 REALTORS® Party Convention & Trade Expo in Washington, DC on May 15, 2014.
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Presentation in Washington, D.C.
May 15, 2014
GDP Contraction in 2014 Q1 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q3 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q3 2011 - Q1 2011 - Q3 2012 - Q1 2012 - Q3 2013 - Q1 2013 - Q3 2014 - Q1 GDP Annualized Growth Rate But No Fresh Recession in Sight -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 GDP Growth Rate from one year ago Sluggish Growth + Gap after Great Recession ($1.5 trillion gap $4,700 per person) 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 18000 1998 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2012 - Q1 GDP in 2009 Dollars Real GDP Real GDP W/O Recession 3% Growth Line 2.2% Growth Line GDP Growth = Job Creations (8 million lost 8 million gained) 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 2 0 0 0
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N o v In thousands Local Market Job Comparisons Fast Growing States 1-year Growth Rate Nevada 3.8% North Dakota 3.7% Colorado 3.0% Florida 3.0% Oregon 2.7% Texas 2.7% Utah 2.6% Delaware 2.4% California 2.3% Arizona 1.9% Slow Moving States 1-year Growth Rate New Mexico -0.2% Kentucky -0.2% New Jersey 0.0% Virginia 0.1% Alaska 0.2% West Virginia 0.3% Pennsylvania 0.3% Maryland 0.3% D.C. 0.4% Mississippi 0.5% Commercial Investment Sales of Large Properties (Properties valued at $2.5 million and over) 130 212 362 423 571 174 67 147 233 299 355 400 420 430 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Commercial Sales in $Billions Green Street Price Index Charting New Highs 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2 0 0 0
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J a n NCREIF Price Index (Only Apartments Setting New Highs) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2 0 0 0
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Q 3 Apartment Industrial Office Retail Price Increases Supported by Rising Rents and Low Interest Rates Cap Rates and Treasuries: Large Gap 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 10yr UST* Cap Rate REALTOR Markets & Deal Size (Not $2.5 million Properties) 21% 22% 26% 17% 12% 1% 2% < $250,000 $250,000 - $500,000 $500,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000 - $5,000,000 $5,000,000 - $10,000,000 > $10,000,000 2013 CRE Lending Survey: Value of most recent sales transaction Source: NAR Cap Rates: A Number of Markets
8.3% 8.2% 8.5% 7.5% 8.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel Cap Rates Major Markets (RCA) REALTOR Markets (NAR) Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
NAR Member Commercial Activity Survey 1 st Quarter, 2014
Sales Volume Compared with Previous Year: Up 11% Sales Prices Compared with Previous Year: Up 4% Rental Rates Compared with Previous Quarter: Up 2% Direction of Business Opportunities Compared with Previous Quarter: Up 6% Monetary Policy Tapering Ends by the year end 2014 Fed Funds Rate hike in 2015 Q1 Earlier Move to Tighten because of Inflation Pressure Long-term Steady State Rate (2016 onwards) .. 10 year Treasury at 5.0% 250 basis points higher than current
Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy for 6 years!) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fed Funds % New Construction Activity - Recovering (Not a New High Yet) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 2 0 0 0
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J a n Non-Residential Construction in $Millions Consumer Price Inflation: Less than 2% (% change from one year ago) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 9 9 9
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J a n CPI: Year Over Year Percent Change All items exlcuding fuel and energy All items Core Price Inflation: Less than 2%; but rose at 2.5% annualized rate (% change from one year ago) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 1 9 9 9
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J a n All items exlcuding fuel and energy Apartment Vacancy RatesHistoric Lows Now 5.7 5.3 4.9 5.2 Avg Vacancy Rates, 2003-13 Avg Vacancy Rates, Past 19 Years Vacancy Rate 2013 Forecasted Vacancy Rates, 2014-16 Industrial Space Tends to be Warehouses, Flex Space 11.9 10.3 11.3 10.4 Avg Vacancy Rates, 2003- 13 Avg Vacancy Rates, Past 20 years Vacancy Rate, 2013 Forecasted Vacancy Rates, 2014-16 Industrial: Average Vacancy Rates Source: Urban Land Institute Commercial Office Buildings Vacancies Projected to Decline 14.9 14.1 14.9 13.7 Avg Vacancy Rates, 2003- 13 Avg Vacancy Rate, Pst 20 Years Vacancy Rate, 2013 Forecasted Vacancy Rates, 2014-16 Offices: Average Vacancy Rates Source: Urban Land Institute Retail: Vacancy Rates 10.5 9.8 12.0 11.1 Avg Vacancy Rates, 2003- 13 Avg Vacancy Rate, Pst 20 Years Vacancy Rate, 2013 Forecasted Vacancy Rates, 2014-16 Retail: Average Vacancy Rates Source: Urban Land Institute Forecast over the next 2 years GDP Growth near 3% Net New Jobs about 2 million a year Rising interest rates 10-year Treasury to reach 4% by late 2015 Cap rates rise somewhat (narrow the gap first) Increased occupancy and falling vacancy (new supply lacking) Rising rents Overall improving business opportunities
Economic Forecast 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Growth Rate Real GDP 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.9 Employment 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.9 Unemployment 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.5 6.3 Interest Rates 3-Month Treasury 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 10-Year Government Bond 2.8 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.8 Commercial Forecast OFFICE 2014 I 2014 II 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2014 2015 Vacancy Rate 15.8% 15.8% 15.7% 15.5% 15.6% 15.5% 15.4% 15.7% 15.5% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 10,880 10,787 11,745 11,144 11,400 12,727 13,515 44,556 50,024 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 6,232 7,457 6,085 6,249 8,033 9,220 8,392 26,023 33,917 Rent Growth 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 2.3% 3.2%
INDUSTRIAL 2014 I 2014 II 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2014 2015 Vacancy Rate 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 8.9% 8.7% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 19,098 26,525 31,831 28,648 19,914 27,658 33,190 106,102 110,632 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 14,865 21,943 20,527 13,449 14,383 21,233 19,863 70,784 68,492 Rent Growth 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 2.4% 2.6%
RETAIL 2014 I 2014 II 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2014 2015 Vacancy Rate 10.2% 10.0% 10.0% 9.8% 9.9% 9.8% 9.8% 10.0% 9.8% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 4,045 3,417 2,590 4,591 5,776 4,880 3,699 14,643 20,910 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 2,565 2,239 2,565 2,847 3,689 3,188 3,581 10,216 14,115 Rent Growth 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0% 2.3%
MULTI-FAMILY 2014 I 2014 II 2014 III 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2014 2015 Vacancy Rate 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% Net Absorption (Units) 50,333 45,491 42,940 58,167 27,721 25,055 23,650 204,931 112,463 Completions (Units) 32,164 42,931 41,765 44,781 27,728 35,219 32,162 161,640 129,238 Rent Growth 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 4.3% 3.5%
Sources: National Association of REALTORS / Reis, Inc. Washington Policy Watch on Commercial Real Estate Facilitate Covered Bonds to help credit flow Raise cap on holding of commercial RE loans by credit unions Preserve Like-Kind Exchanges Preserve Terrorism Insurance Preserve capital gains status on carried interest Depreciation Rules should match economic life Oppose lease-accounting changes For Daily Update and Analysis
Twitter @NAR_Research
Commercial Real Estate Outlook: NOT AS BRIGHT AS THE PICTURE--BUT STILL EXPANDING
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Presentation in Washington, D.C.
May 15, 2014
Commercial Real Estate: My Favorite Graphs Presented by: Bob Bach Director, Research 312.698.6754 rbach@ngkf.com Source: CoStar, NGKF -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 M i l l i o n
S F
CBD Suburban Office Market Absorption, CBD vs. Suburban Suburbs Are Alive and Well Since 2007, net absorption in CBDs has been negative!
Excluding quarters with negative absorption, suburbs have accounted for 80% of total absorption since 2007. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Original 6 CBDs Other 53 CBDs M i l l i o n s
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Office Inventory $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Original 6 CBDs Other 53 CBDs P e r
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P e r
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G r o s s
Office Asking Rent 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Original 6 CBDs Other 53 CBDs Office Vacancy Rate 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Original 6 CBDs Other 53 CBDs Office Cap Rate Source: CoStar, NGKF Not All CBDs Created Equal NY, DC, Boston, Chicago, SF, Seattle (Original 6) vs. All Others Source: CoStar, NGKF 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 %
V a c a n t
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A b s o r b e d / C o m p l e t e d
( m i l l i o n s )
SF Absorbed SF Completed % Vacant Q1 Vacancy of 7.7% ties pre- recession low in 2007-Q1.
Y/Y vacancy fell 200-plus bps in Fresno, Las Vegas, Columbus, Denver & Charlotte, more than twice the 85-bps drop in U.S.
Construction pipeline = 94M SF, 52% of prior peak in 2007-Q3.
Q1 net absorption hit 6-year high of 47M SF, led by DFW w/4.2M SF.
Asking rent rose 5.1% Y/Y.
Recovery has spread to regional markets with less new supply.
Industrial Market Drivers = E-Commerce, Cap-ex, Trade, Supply Chain Optimization Source: Trepp with Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Data, NGKF $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 B i l l i o n s
Bank CMBS Insurance Companies Other CRE Loans Maturing 2012-2022 CMBS Still Problematic Maturing loans will remain elevated for three more years.
CMBS maturations will peak in 2017.
Delinquency rates are going down for all loan types.
With leasing market conditions improving, there appears to be plenty of debt capital available to refinance the loans.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
The Evolution of Office Space May 15, 2014 | Washington, DC 39 COST IS IMPORTANT Real Estate Labor Cost of Doing Business 55% surveyed plan reductions Real Estate Cost Reductions 40 million sq. ft. Price Sensitivity 225 sf 151 sf 2010 2017f Sq. Ft. per Worker Sources: CBRE, CoreNet Global. 40 1
7
Major Business Drivers for Alternative Workplaces ITS NOT ALL ABOUT COST 1
Cost Savings
76% 2
Work-Life Balance
66% 3
Productivity
64% 4
Business Agility
61% 5
Employee Attraction/ Retention
59% 6
Collaboration
47% 7
Sustainability
41% Source: NewWOW. 2011 Survey 4
Cost Savings
58%
Work-Life Balance
70% 2
Productivity
69% 5
Business Agility
56% 3
Employee Attraction/ Retention
60% 6
Collaboration
49%
Sustainability
29% 2013 Survey 41 CBRE Downtown Los Angeles FLEXIBILITY & CHOICE 42 Clustering of Tech Talent ATTRACTING TALENT Sources: BLS, CBRE Research. 43 Demographics Impact the Workplace THE NEXT GENERATION THE TRADITIONALISTS (BABY BOOMERS, GEN X) THE NEW GENERATION (GEN Y OR MILLENNIALS) Dedicated Space Choice in where we work Face-to-face interactions Face-to-face + collaboration & media tools Stationary technology Mobile technology Independence & hard work Collaboration & team work Work is about obligation and challenges Work is about fulfillment Health & retirement benefits Work-life balance Top down or consensus driven decision making Speedy decision making Source: CBRE Workplace Strategies. 44 Wellbeing & Health SUSTAINABILITY 2.0 JEFFREY KOTTMEIER DIRECTOR, RESEARCH & ANALYSIS T +1 202 783 8200 Jeffrey.Kottmeier@cbre.com May 2014 Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin J. Thorpe, Chief Economist NABEs Consensus Forecast Released: March 2014 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Media n Five Lowest Five Highest Median Five Lowest Five Highest Real GDP, % change, Q4/Q4 2.7 1.5 3.5 3.2 2.3 3.8 CPI, % change, Q4/Q4 1.9 1.4 2.4 2.0 1.2 2.8 Civilian Unemployment Rate, % annual average 6.4 6.3 6.8 6.1 5.5 6.6 Federal Funds Target, % year-end 0.125 0.125 0.500 .750 0.125 2.000 10-Yr Treasury Note Yield, % year-end 3.30 2.72 3.75 3.80 2.95 4.44 Housing Starts, millions of units 1.07 0.91 1.20 1.30 0.99 4.50 Home Prices, FHFA, % change, Q4/Q4 5.0 1.8 9.3 4.0 1.3 6.7 Oil Prices, $ per barrel, December Average 99 90 105 100 85 111 S&P 500 Index, December 31 1950 1800 2028 2047 1800 2318 Springing Back Job Growth Home Sales Auto Sales ISM +288k (April) +3.4% (March) 16.4M (March) 54.9 (April) (Mth/Mth) (PHI, Monthly) (Monthly) CRE Demand Metrics 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Retail (msf) Office(msf) Industrial (msf) Apartments, 000's 2007 2013 Pre-Recession Average Source: Cassidy Turley Research, Reis U.S. Net Absorption in 2013 vs. Pre-recession Annual Averages CRE Fraught With Nuances Tenants Signing For Less Space Changes In Office SF Per Worker 225 164 151 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: CoreNet Global Office space per worker, sf High Quality Is King -20 0 20 40 60 80 2011 2012 2013 M S F
Class A Net Abs. Class B Net Abs. Total Pre-Crisis Average Source: Cassidy Turley Research U.S. Office Sector Is Multifamily Overbuilding? 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 #
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Completions Forecast Recovery Absorption Historical Absorption Source: Reis, Cassidy Turley Research Industrial Is Underbuilding Industrial: Spread between current vacancy & historical average Source: Cassidy Turley Research Raleigh Columbus Austin Charlotte Dallas Louisville Pittsburgh Indianapolis Baltimore Denver Minneapolis San Diego Central NJ Atlanta Milwaukee Cincinnati Sub MD Chicago Houston Philadelphia Saint Louis Nashville -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 Prime Retail Rents Surging 2% 6% 8% 10% 17% 19% 22% 31% 32% 42% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Los Angeles (West) St. Louis (Clayton) San Diego (Del Mar) Bethesda, MD Chicago (N. Mich Ave) DC (Georgetown) Atlanta (Buckhead) NY City (Midtown) San Fran (Downtown core) Nashville (Downtown) Rent Growth, 2013 over 2012 Source: Cassidy Turley Research, Costar What Could Go Wrong? Eurozone deflation China hard landing Monetary policy fuels hyperinflation Interest Rates Spike Russia/Ukraine Crisis Global Panic