International dimensions of Bangladesh's current political crisis

By David Bergman
The current political stand-off between Bangladesh's two main parties over the nature of the
election-time government (BNP wants caretaker/neutral government; the ! wants an all-part"
government under the control of the prime-minister# is not onl" of interest to the countr"'s
voting population$ but also to a number of its neighboring$ and not-so neighboring$ countries%
&ere is a thumbnail sketch of where the 'nited (tates$ )ndia$ *hina and +ussia - currentl" stand
in relation to the conflict between the wami !eague and the Bangladesh Nationalist Part" and
wh" the" have taken these positions%
United States
Background: &istoricall"$ the 'nited (tates has had a frost" relationship with the wami
!eague going back to the countr"'s support for Pakistan during the war of independence in ,-.,%
lthough the '( did recognise Bangladesh relativel" soon after its independence in pril ,-./
(though the '0$ for e1ample recognised it two months earlier#$ relations with the '( continued
to be less than friendl" in view of the ,-.,$ the wami !eague's socialist orientation$ and the
part"'s preference for the (oviet union/)ndia a1is% 2oreover$ credible allegations emerged that in
,-.3 the *) station chief in 4haka had contact with the ma5ors who subse6uentl" murdered
(heikh 2u5ib (the countr"'s first president$ and leader of the !# and his famil" - though contact
with these men did not take place under the authorit" of the '( ambassador at the time%
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)n 4ecember ,-.3$ three months after the assassination of 2u5ib (and following a number of
attempted coups# 7eneral 8iaur +ahman - who in ,-.9 formed the Bangladesh Nationalist Part"
to carr" out his political ambitions - assumed power$ orientating Bangladesh's foreign polic"
towards the 'nited (tates$ and awa" from the (oviet 'nion/)ndia a1is%
:ollowing the murder of 8ia +ahman in ,-9,$ 7eneral ;rshard took over continued this pro-'(
polic"% <ith the toppling of ;rshard in ,--=$ and resumption of democrac"$ and the battle
between the two main parties - ! and BNP - taking centre stage$ it appears that the '( has
taken a relativel" even handed polic" towards the two parties$ and the old suspicions between
the ! and the '( have dramaticall" reduced%
Current situation> The '('s repeatedl" stated position is that it wants there to be credible$ free
and fair elections in Bangladesh - and b" 'credible' it has stated$ at least in the past$ that this
includes an election which all the main political parties participate% )t has therefore pushed the
two parties to have a dialogue and find an amicable solution which allows the BNP to take part
in the election% The '( has not stated which formula it prefers - one closer to the BNP's
preferred option of a caretaker government or one closer to the ! formula of an all-part"
government in which the opposition part" is a part of%
The ke" issue is whether the '( will send observers to an election in which the BNP is not
participating and whether it considers such an election to be credible% )t does not appear that the
'( government has finall" made up its mind - but it has made it clear to the BNP that in certain
circumstances$ it could deem elections credible even if it did not take part% ()n /==- apparentl"$
the '( told the BNP that it would recognise the elections as credible even if the part" decided
not to take part#% The manner in which parties seek - or do not seek - to find a solution will pla"
a part$ it appears$ in the '('s final decision on the credibilit" of an" 'one part"' elections%
Publicl"$ on this issue$ the '( government is now stating that its position will depend upon
whether the Bangladesh people consider it to be credible%
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n added comple1it" to the '( position on Bangladesh is its close relationship with )ndia -
which is a strategic partner%
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)ndia has asserted (it being Bangladesh's big neighbour# that it's
interests should be decisive in determining what the two countr"'s positions should be towards
the Bangladesh elections - but the 'nited (tates has argued against )ndia's apparent e1plicitl"
pro-wami !eague stance and willingness to provide support for elections without the BNP's
participation% The '( has tried to argue that support for elections without the BNP$ which will
result in an unstable government is not in )ndia's best interests and it could back-fire against it%
These are on-going tensions within the two countr"'s partnership$ in which of course one should
remember$ Bangladesh pla"s a relativel" minor part (see more in section on )ndia below#%
India
Background> )t is no secret that )ndia has a soft spot for the wami !eague - a relationship that
goes back a long wa" even before the ,-., war when )ndia provided great assistance to the
countr"'s independence movement spearheaded of course b" the ! itself% )n recent "ears$ the
secular nature of the !'s politics (its anti-fundamentalist thinking$ at least# has provided
reassurance to the )ndian government on securit" matters% nd this in turn then provides a sound
basis for )ndia to pursue its own economic interests%
)ndia has not reall" had much choice - assuming it wanted to make a choice% BNP's position has
traditionall" been 'anti-)ndia'$ and this has at times been 6uite shrill$ with the part" seeking to
e1ploit a perception$ held b" man" people in the countr"$ that the wami !eague is willing to
sell out the countr"'s interests to its big neighbor%
lthough without )ndia$ Bangladesh ma" never have obtained independence$ it is notable that
6uite soon after 4ecember ,-.,$ an anti-)ndia feeling emerged after independence (initiall"
directed towards )ndian businessmen who were seen as e1ploiting the vulnerabilit" of
Bangladesh's post-independence state#$ and the BNP built its 'anti-)ndia' position on this%
2oreover$ the perception that Pakistan's intelligence agencies have close relationships with the
BNP$ has also given )ndia another reason to support the wami !eague%
)ndia's willingness to remain close with the wami !eague$ has been informed b" the BNP's
strong electoral alliance with the @amaat-e-)slami since /==,$ and the militanc" that developed
during its /==, to /==A term of government% The @amaat is seen in particular b" )ndia as a
securit" threat with its islamist politics and perceived relationships with militant groups%
)nterestingl"$ though$ in the last few "ears$ the BNP has softened its position towards )ndia$
significantl" muting it anti-)ndian rhetoric% &oping to neutralise )ndia's traditional support for
the !$ the BNP has tried to prove to )ndia - with 0haleda's visit to New 4elhi
B
in November
/=,/ as the most important landmark in BNP's movement awa" from its former position - that it
can also be a solid and safe all"$ and that in the future it will remain as forceful in its fight
against militanc" as the wami !eague%
Current situation> The issue right now is whether )ndia will support the wami !eague if it
undertakes elections under a so called 'all part" government' (without BNP's involvement$ and
with &asina retaining the position of prime minister#$ and without the participation BNP in the
elections themselves%
)t's current public position in a recent statement
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from )ndian ambassador is non-partisan$ stating
that$ C)t is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their own future% )ndia supports holding of free
and fair elections in Bangladesh%D
&owever$ prior leaks to the media from )ndian diplomats
A
indicated that the )ndian government
was concerned that the '( was failing to support the wami !eague's position that free and fair
elections could take place under an all-part" government and in misunderstanding the risks to
Bangladesh/)ndia attached to a BNP/@amaat victor"% s mentioned above$ )ndia believed that in
the conte1t of the '(/)ndia strategic alliance$ with )ndia's securit" concerns as BangladeshEs
neighbour$ the '( should follow )ndia's foreign polic" interests when it came to elections in
Bangladesh and were irritated b" what it saw as the '('s independent position on this matter%
)ndia's sees the resurgence of the @amaat-e-)slami in an" new BNP government$ along with
BNP's apparent support for &efaFet-e-)salmi as inimical to its interests% The '( appears to think
that )ndia's perception of these threats are overblown - that @amaat is a ver" much weakened
force in Bangladesh politics due to !'s policies in the last five "ear and in an" case is a
''moderate )slamic part" and that the BNP has made it clear that it will come down hard on
militanc"
.
and seeks a good relationship with )ndia%
The difference in position between the '( and )ndia can be summed up as follows> )ndia does
not want BNP/@amaat to come to power$ '( does not mind if it does%
)n the last five "ears$ the ! has also been good to )ndia in terms of providing contracts to
)ndian companies$ so the )ndian government also has economic interests in the governing part"
remaining in power%
)ndia's diplomats are usuall" tight lipped and the fact that the" decided to brief 5ournalists about
its difference of opinion with the 'nited (tates was seen b" man" as out of character$ and
indicating the seriousness which )ndia took its disagreement%
)ndia's support for the !'s position right now has diplomatic significance - providing a counter
weight to how most of the rest of the international communit" views the situation (the need for
participator" elections#% (ubse6uentl"$ the support could be significant in the !'s attempts to
persuade this communit" that the elections without the BNP are credible and should be
supported%
&owever$ )ndia's position could back-fire both against it and the part"% )f the vast ma5orit" of
Bangladeshis$ along with most of the international communit"$ 6uestioned the credibilit" of the
elections held without BNP$ )ndia could look ver" isolated if it continued to support the !'s
position% nd for the !$ in the conte1t of widespread suspicion within Bangladesh about
)ndia's motives$ it would not be helpful for them to be seen to be so heavil" supported b" its
neighbor%
&owever$ the ! ma" not pa" such a high political price for )ndia's support since BNP is not
publicl" e1ploiting this issue - viewing its future strategic relationship with )ndia as more
important%
China
Background> )n ,-.,$ *hina was firm allies with Pakistan$ and following the countr"'s
independence twice vetoed Bangladesh's recognition in the 'nited Nations% <ith the
assassination of (heikh 2u5ib$ 8iaur +ahman came to power$ and changed the orientation of the
countr"'s foreign polic" towards *hina (and awa" from )ndia#% s a result$ historicall"$ the
countr" has stronger ties with the BNP than the !% n important element of *hina's
relationship with Bangladesh is its old$ though decreasing$ rivalr" with )ndia%
Current situation: 'nder the current government$ *hina has received some important trade
deals$ (though not as man" as the government has given )ndia# and the foreign minister has
made a number of trips to *hina to improve the two countr"'s relationship - however the failure
of the ! government to allow it to build a deep sea port in (onadia off the *hittagong coast$
apparentl" rankles% *hina likel" sees economic advantages in a BNP victor"$ but its most
important interest right now$ due to its varied economic investments in the countr"$ is for the
political stabilit"%
&ighl" unusuall" for *hina it has made a number of public statements
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about the current
situation$ calling for dialogue between the parties% (ince$ *hina usuall" does not make an"
comment on the political situation in Bangladesh$ these rather anod"ne statements have been
interpreted as slightl" favoring the BNP's position%
Russia
Background> )n ,-.,$ the (oviet 'nion supported Bangladesh's fight for independence$ as part
of its alliance with )ndia - and after the war 2u5ib and the (oviet 'nion had a good relationship%
The +ussian government continues to have a good relationship with the wami !eague and it
has won some important contracts - (an arms and nuclear power deal
-
are particularl"
significant# - which involved the first visit of a Bangladesh prime minister for B= "ears
1
%
Current situation> The +ussian government has made no political statement on the current
political stalemate in Bangladesh% )ts interests in Bangladesh appears to be primaril" economic -
and +ussia is concerned that it ma" lose these contracts if the BNP comes back into power -
with the BNP having told +ussian diplomats that the contracts will certainl" be reviewed%
Because of this$ +ussia is perceived as seeking an wami !eague victor"$ though there is no
direct evidence to support this suggestion%
!uropean Union" #ustralia" Canada
This bloc of countries with different histories towards Bangladesh have the same basic position
as the '( in relation to the elections in Bangladesh - though there are inevitable nuances
between these countries as to criteria in determining when elections will be deemed to be
credible% (ome diplomats are taking a more legalistic position than others - arguing that since
the constitution allow elections to take place in the wa" that the ! government is
now organiFing them$ then it is irrelevant whether or not the BNP decides to bo"cott them%
Gthers look be"ond the letter of the law and ask whether or not credible elections without a
part" that represents the voting intention of between a third and half of the countr" could in an"
wa" be deemed credible
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(even though the current constitution allows it#%
The main interest of all these countries is political stabilit" - for their economic and aid interests
locked up in Bangladesh%
:or the ;'$ a ke" 6uestion is whether or not the" will send an observer team - with no decision
"et firml" made$ and indeed no invitation from the government either%
,/
David Bergman is a Bangladesh based journalist who has since August 2010 worked as Editor,
Special Reports for the Bangladesh national newspaper, New Age !rior to working at New
Age, between "arch and Septe#ber 2010, he worked as a senior editor and reporter at the news
website, bdnews2$co# and before that he spent se%en #onths at the Bangladesh newspaper, the
&ail' Star, setting up a s#all in%estigations unit Between 2000 and 200(, he was the E)ecuti%e
&irector of the *entre for *orporate Accountabilit', a +, based not-for-profit organisation
concerned with workplace safet' Before that, he worked as a .ele%ision journalist and
producer for about se%en 'ears working #ainl' for the tele%ision production co#pan', .went'
.went' .ele%ision in /ondon 0n 1((1, he was in%ol%ed in #aking the Ro'al .ele%ision Societ'
award winning *hannel 2our docu#entar', the 34ar *ri#es 2ile3, a fil# about war cri#es
allegedl' co##itted b' three #en during the 1(51 4ar of 0ndpendence 6e has li%ed in &haka
since 2007
1
http://archive.thedailystar.net/2005/08/16/d5081601033.htm
2
http://www.state.gov/p/sca/rls/rmks/2013/217733.htm
3
http://www.americanprogress.org/isses/secrity/news/2012/10/26/!3080/deepening"the""s"india"partnership/
4
http://www.thehind.com/opinion/op"ed/what"lies"#eyond"this"trn/article!1025!!.ece
5
http://www.americanprogress.org/isses/secrity/news/2012/10/26/!3080/deepening"the""s"india"partnership/
6
http://articles.timeso$india.indiatimes.com/2013"11"01/edit"page/!35%1607&1&indian"diplomats"#np"chie$"
hasina"government
7
http://#angladeshpolitico.#logspot.com/2013/10/khaledas"latest"salvo"smart"with"eye"on.html
8
http://www.thedailystar.net/#eta2/news/china"canada"concerned"over"political"trmoil"in"#angladesh/
9
http://en.ria.r/rssia/20130115/1787%512!.html
10
http://indrs.in/world/2013/01/18/hasinas&visit&rssia&edges&ot&china&$rom&#angladesh&21715.html
11
http://#angladeshpolitico.#logspot.com/2013/10/diplomats"warn"government"that"withot.html
12
http://www.newage#d.com/detail.php'date(2013"11"12)nid(727!0*.+o!e,-5-po